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The Whittier Narrows earthquake of 1987 and the Northridge earthquake of 1991 highlighted the earthquake hazards associated with buried faults in the Los Angeles region. A more thorough knowledge of the subsurface structure of southern California is needed to reveal these and other buried faults and to aid us in understanding how the earthquake-producing machinery works in this region.
Although widespread agreement that the Cascadia subduction zone produces great earthquakes of magnitude 8 to 9 was reached decades ago, debate continues about the rupture lengths, magnitudes, and frequency of megathrust earthquakes recorded by wetland stratigraphy fringing Cascadia’s estuaries. Correlation of such coastal earthquake evidence along the subduction zone has largely relied on relative position in a stratigraphic sequence and maximum-limiting 14C ages with errors of decades to hundreds of years. Offshore, a 10,000-year record of turbidites in marine cores is interpreted as an archive of strong shaking from great earthquakes, with an average frequency of about 500 years in northern Cascadia versus 200-300 years in southern Oregon and northern California. Onshore, fewer events marked by sharp (<3 mm) peat-mud (mud-over-peat) contacts in tidal wetland stratigraphic sequences have been widely inferred to record sudden relative sea-level rise due to coseismic subsidence during megathrust earthquakes: 4-7 sharp subsidence contacts in 3500 years at estuaries in northern Oregon and southern Washington (500-800 year average recurrence), and 9-12 sharp subsidence contacts in over 6000 years in sequences in central and southern Oregon (500-900 year average recurrence). Improved understanding of the onshore and offshore records is critical to the assessment of earthquake hazard in western North America and of tsunami hazard in the Pacific basin. However, because dating the turbidite record is inherently much less precise than are age models for subsidence events in the most thoroughly studied tidal wetland sequences, accurate reconstruction of the times of Cascadia’s great earthquakes depends on the ages from the onshore record. Although methods to reduce uncertainty in the limits of resolution of tidal stratigraphy for recording earthquakes of a particular magnitude, and ways to distinguish earthquake subsidence stratigraphic contacts from non-seismic contacts, have been discussed for decades (e.g., Nelson, 1992; Atwater, 1992; Darienzo et al., 1994; Nelson et al., 1996a; Atwater and Hemphill-Haley, 1997; Witter et al., 2001; Kelsey et al., 2002; Nelson et al., 2006; Graehl et al., 2014; Milker et al., 2016), consensus about the threshold of resolution (minimum identifiable evidence of an earthquake) of tidal stratigraphy and, therefore, the completeness of Cascadia’s coastal record of great earthquakes, remains elusive. Although the most distinct, widespread contacts likely record close to a meter of coastal subsidence during the greatest megathrust earthquakes (e.g., M8.8-M9), other contacts may record <0.5 m of subsidence onshore of patches of low stress release on the megathrust during great earthquakes, during lesser megathrust earthquakes (e.g., M8.2-8.6), or from localized subsidence near upper-plate faults that slip during or independently of megathrust earthquakes (Nelson et al., 1996b; Wang et al., 2013; Kemp et al., 2018). At the Siuslaw River estuary in central Oregon (lat. 43.97°) a stratigraphy of 9-12 peat-mud contacts, similar to those described from many Cascadia estuaries, may record a greater number of earthquakes during the past 2000 years than at any other of the tens of tidal wetland sites to the north and south. Here, as well as at many tens of other Cascadia tidal wetland sites, peat-mud contacts mark the tops of couplets of tidal flat and low marsh mud gradually shoaling upward into middle and high marsh peat. Along core transects across an 800-m-wide, island marsh in the Siuslaw River, we traced the 9 most continuous of 12-15 peaty beds dating from the past 2000 years for 250-500 m, but we had difficulty correlating the 3-6 intervening beds >50-100 m. We attribute the sharper, more extensive upper contacts on peaty beds—two capped by sandy beds probably deposited by tsunamis—to sudden coseismic subsidence of middle and high marshes, but origins for other upper and lower contacts boundi
Actions to reduce earthquake hazards can be divided into five phases:two occur before the event, one during the event, and two after the event. The phases are: (1) Mitigation techniques taken anywhere from 1 to 20 years before the event, (2) preparedness measures taken 1 to 20 weeks before the event, (3) response during the actual event, (4) recovery operations over 1 to 20 weeks, and (5) reconstruction activities taken from 1 to 20 years. The magnitude of the earthquake and the resources available to communities and individuals will very these times. A prerequisite to personal preparedness is familiarity with and concern about the other hazard-reduction phases. Strengthening the structure of the home, storing water, and showing family members how to shut off utility-supply lines are only a part of personal preparedness. Equally important are other phases such as picking up children from an evacuated school, securing heavy objects at the work palce as well as in the home, and retrofitting the commuter-highway overpasses needed to reunite a family.
Data from all available triangulation networks affected by the 1906 earthquake have been combined to assess the trade-off between slip resolution and its uncertainty and to construct a conservative image of coseismic slip along the rupture. Because of varying network aperture and station density, slip resolution is very uneven. Although slip is determined within uncertainties of ??1.0 m along 60% of the fault, constraints are poor on the remaining, mostly offshore portions of the rupture. Slip decreases from maxima of 8.6 and 7.5 m at Shelter Cove and Tomales Bay to 4.5 m near Mount Tamalpais and 2.7 m at Loma Prieta. The geodetically derived slip distribution is in poor agreement with estimates based on analysis of S wave seismograms, probably because these waves register only 20-30% of the total seismic moment obtained from longer-period surface waves. Consideration of a range of fault geometries for 1906 slip near Loma Prieta indicates right-lateral motions lie between 2.3 and 3.1 m. These values are considerably greater than the 1.5 m of measured surface slip on which several assessments of high earthquake hazard for this fault segment were based. This factor, along with the absence of 1989 slippage where 1906 surface slip was used to make the forecasts, casts doubt on some claims of success in predicting the 1989 M = 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake.
The Stafford fault system, located in the mid-Atlantic coastal plain of the eastern United States, provides the most complete record of fault movement during the past ~120 m.y. across the Virginia, Washington, District of Columbia (D.C.), and Maryland region, including displacement of Pleistocene terrace gravels. The Stafford fault system is close to and aligned with the Piedmont Spotsylvania and Long Branch fault zones. The dominant southwest-northeast trend of strong shaking from the 23 August 2011, moment magnitude M w 5.8 Mineral, Virginia, earthquake is consistent with the connectivity of these faults, as seismic energy appears to have traveled along the documented and proposed extensions of the Stafford fault system into the Washington, D.C., area. Some other faults documented in the nearby coastal plain are clearly rooted in crystalline basement faults, especially along terrane boundaries. These coastal plain faults are commonly assumed to have undergone relatively uniform movement through time, with average slip rates from 0.3 to 1.5 m/m.y. However, there were higher rates during the Paleocene–early Eocene and the Pliocene (4.4–27.4 m/m.y), suggesting that slip occurred primarily during large earthquakes. Further investigation of the Stafford fault system is needed to understand potential earthquake hazards for the Virginia, Maryland, and Washington, D.C., area. The combined Stafford fault system and aligned Piedmont faults are ~180 km long, so if the combined fault system ruptured in a single event, it would result in a significantly larger magnitude earthquake than the Mineral earthquake. Many structures most strongly affected during the Mineral earthquake are along or near the Stafford fault system and its proposed northeastward extension.
The purpose of a seismotectonic map is to describe the distribution of historic seismic activity in relation to geologic structures and tectonic provinces and to identify structures or regions that are characterized by consistent relations between seismic activity and structural features. An experimental study to test the feasibility of preparing such a map and its usefulness in evaluating earthquake hazards was initiated jointly by the U.S. Geological Survey and the former Seismology Division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; financial support was provided by the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission. It was hoped that the study would develop evidence for the existence of tectonic regions or structural provinces that are useful in defining parameters of seismic hazard in relation to engineered structures. As with many experiments, this one did not produce the results envisioned at the outset, but it did result, we think, in assembling seismic and structural data useful in evaluating the distribution and origin of earthquakes in the eastern part of the United States and in delimiting areas of relative seismic activity.
In the beginning of the 20th century, geologist Thomas A. Jaggar, Jr., argued that, to fully understand volcanic and associated hazards, the expeditionary mode of studying eruptions only after they occurred was inadequate. Instead, he fervently advocated the use of permanent observatories to record and measure volcanic phenomena—at and below the surface—before, during, and after eruptions to obtain the basic scientific information needed to protect people and property from volcanic hazards. With the crucial early help of American volcanologist Frank Alvord Perret and the Hawaiian business community, the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) was established in 1912, and Jaggar’s vision became reality. From its inception, HVO’s mission has centered on several goals: (1) measuring and documenting the seismic, eruptive, and geodetic processes of active Hawaiian volcanoes (principally Kīlauea and Mauna Loa); (2) geological mapping and dating of deposits to reconstruct volcanic histories, understand island evolution, and determine eruptive frequencies and volcanic hazards; (3) systematically collecting eruptive products, including gases, for laboratory analysis; and (4) widely disseminating observatory-acquired data and analysis, reports, and hazard warnings to the global scientific community, emergency-management authorities, news media, and the public. The long-term focus on these goals by HVO scientists, in collaboration with investigators from many other organizations, continues to fulfill Jaggar’s career-long vision of reducing risks from volcanic and earthquake hazards across the globe. This chapter summarizes HVO’s history and some of the scientific achievements made possible by this permanent observatory over the past century as it grew from a small wooden structure with only a small staff and few instruments to a modern, well-staffed, world-class facility with state-of-the-art monitoring networks that constantly track volcanic and earthquake activity. The many successes of HVO, from improving basic knowledge about basaltic volcanism to providing hands-on experience and training for hundreds of scientists and students and serving as the testing ground for new instruments and technologies, stem directly from the acquisition, integration, and analysis of multiple datasets that span many decades of observations of frequent eruptive activity. HVO’s history of the compilation, interpretation, and communication of long-term volcano monitoring and eruption data (for instance, seismic, geodetic, and petrologic-geochemical data and detailed eruption chronologies) is perhaps unparalleled in the world community of volcano observatories. The discussion and conclusions drawn in this chapter, which emphasize developments since the 75th anniversary of HVO in 1987, are general and retrospective and are intended to provide context for the more detailed, topically focused chapters of this volume.
The U.S. Geological Survey’s Geomagnetism Program is collaborating with the Earthquake Hazards Program and Global Seismographic Network Program to densify magnetic field observations. This collaboration focuses on the installation of magnetometers, or magnetic variometers, at existing seismic stations. Along with improving the density of space weather observations for hazard monitoring, these data can be used to correct colocated magnetic field induced noise in seismic data. Such corrections are especially useful during time periods of large magnetic storms where the magnetic field‐induced instrument noise can be of similar amplitude to earthquake ground‐motion records.
The Wabash Valley seismic zone and the New Madrid seismic zone are the closest large earthquake source zones to Evansville, Indiana. The New Madrid earthquakes of 1811-1812, over 180 kilometers (km) from Evansville, produced ground motions with a Modified Mercalli Intensity of VII near Evansville, the highest intensity observed in Indiana. Liquefaction evidence has been documented less than 40 km away from Evansville resulting from two large earthquakes in the past 12,000 years in the Wabash Valley. Two earthquake scenarios are described in this paper that demonstrate the expected ground motions for a 33×42-km region around Evansville based on a repeat earthquake from each of these source regions. We perform a one-dimensional analysis for a grid of sites that takes into account the amplification or deamplification of ground motion in the unconsolidated soil layer using a new three-dimensional model of seismic velocity and bedrock depth. There are significant differences in the calculated amplification from that expected for National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program site class D conditions, with deamplification at many locations within the ancient bedrock valley underlying Evansville. Ground motions relative to the acceleration of gravity (g) in the Evansville area from a simulation of a magnitude (M) 7.7 New Madrid earthquake range from 0.15 to 0.25 g for peak ground acceleration, 0.14 to 0.7 g for 0.2-second (s) spectral acceleration, and 0.05 to 0.25 g for 1.0-s spectral acceleration. Ground motions from a M6.8 Wabash Valley earthquake centered 40 km northwest of the city produce ground motions that decrease with distance from 1.5 to 0.3 g for 0.2-s spectral acceleration when they reach the main part of Evansville, but then increase in amplitude from 0.3 to 0.6 g south of the city and the Ohio River. The densest urbanization in Evansville and Henderson, Ky., is within the area of preferential amplification at 1.0-s period for both scenarios, but the area experiences relatively less amplification than surrounding areas at 0.2 s, consistent with expected resonance periods based on the soil profiles.
Ongoing developments in earthquake source inversions incorporate nonplanar fault geometries as inputs to the inversion process, improving previous approaches that relied solely on planar fault surfaces. This evolution motivates advancing the existing framework for constraining fault geometry, particularly in subduction zones where plate boundary surfaces that host highly hazardous earthquakes are clearly nonplanar. Here, we improve upon the existing framework for the constraint of the seismic rupture plane of subduction interfaces by incorporating active seismic and seafloor sediment thickness data with existing independent data sets and inverting for the most probable nonplanar subduction geometry. Constraining the rupture interface a priori with independent geological and seismological information reduces the uncertainty in the derived earthquake source inversion parameters over models that rely on simpler assumptions, such as the moment tensor inferred fault plane. Examples are shown for a number of wellconstrained global locations. We expand the coverage of previous analyses to a more uniform global data set and show that even in areas of sparse data this approach is able to accurately constrain the approximate subduction geometry, particularly when aided with the addition of data from local active seismic surveys. In addition, we show an example of the integration of many two-dimensional profiles into a threedimensional surface for the Sunda subduction zone and introduce the development of a new global threedimensional subduction interface model: Slab1.0. ?? 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.
A key question in earthquake hazard analysis is whether individual faults within fault zones represent independent seismic sources. For the Seattle fault zone, an upper plate structure within the Cascadia convergent margin, evaluating seismic hazard requires understanding how north-side-up, bedding-plane reverse faults, which generate late Holocene fault scarps, interact with the north-vergent master-ramp thrust and overlying backthrust of the fault zone. A regional uplift at A.D. 900–930 involved an earthquake that nucleated at depth and included slip on both the master-ramp thrust and the back-thrust. This earthquake also included slip on some of the <6-km-deep north-side-up, bedding-plane reverse faults. At locales where the north-side-up reverse faults intersect the Puget Sound coast, an earthquake a few centuries earlier than the A.D. 900–930 regional uplift only uplifted areas within hundreds of meters north of the reverse faults. We infer that the bedding-plane reverse faults are seismogenic because shore platforms near the reverse faults have been abruptly uplifted during earthquakes when other shorelines in the Seattle fault zone were unaffected. Faults of the Seattle fault zone therefore can both produce regional uplift earthquakes, with or without surface displacement on the reverse faults, and produce earthquakes that rupture the bedding-plane reverse faults causing fault scarps and uplift localized to hundreds of meters north of these faults. This latter type of earthquake has occurred at least twice and perhaps three times in the late Holocene, and all these earthquakes preceded the regional coseismic uplift of A.D. 900–930. To account for the paleoseismic observations, we propose that the Seattle fault zone is a wedge thrust, with the leading edge being a fault-bend, wedge thrust fold. The active axial surface of the wedge thrust fold is pinned at the tip of the wedge, and a steeply north-dipping sequence of Tertiary sediment forms the south limb of the wedge thrust fold. Some of these steeply north-dipping, bedding-plane surfaces are seismogenic reverse faults that produce scarps. Earthquakes on the wedge thrust produce the regional coseismic uplift events, and earthquakes within the fault-bend fold cause the local uplift earthquakes. Thus, bedding-plane faults can rupture during earthquakes when the wedge thrust does not rupture but instead continues to accumulate seismic energy.
This publication consists of six map sheets (titles and text included in this document, below), geospatial datasets, and metadata. The geospatial datasets consist of ArcInfo export files for the seismic-hazard point and polygon data shown on the sheets. Probabilistic seismic-hazard maps were prepared for the conterminous United States portraying peak horizontal acceleration and horizontal spectral response acceleration for 0.2- and 1.0-second periods with probabilities of exceedance of 10 percent in 50 years and 2 percent in 50 years. All of the maps were prepared by combining the hazard derived from spatially smoothed historic seismicity with the hazard from fault-specific sources. The acceleration values contoured are the random horizontal component. The reference site condition is firm rock, defined as having an average shear-wave velocity of 760 m/sec in the top 30 meters corresponding to the boundary between NEHRP (National Earthquake Hazards Reduction program) site classes B and C. This data set represents the results of calculations of hazard curves for a grid of points with a spacing of 0.05 degrees in latitude and longitude. The points were contoured to produce the final representation of the seismic hazard.
Probabilistic seismic-hazard maps were prepared for the conterminous United States portraying peak horizontal acceleration and horizontal spectral response acceleration for 0.2- and 1.0-second periods with probabilities of exceedance of 10 percent in 50 years and 2 percent in 50 years. All of the maps were prepared by combining the hazard derived from spatially smoothed historic seismicity with the hazard from fault-specific sources. The acceleration values contoured are the random horizontal component. The reference site condition is firm rock, defined as having an average shear-wave velocity of 760 m/s in the top 30 meters corresponding to the boundary between NEHRP (National Earthquake Hazards Reduction program) site classes B and C. This data set represents the results of calculations of hazard curves for a grid of points with a spacing of 0.05 degrees in latitude and longitude. The grid of points were contoured to produce the final representation of the seismic-hazard. These maps are intended to summarize the available quantitative information about seismic ground motion hazard for the conterminous United States from geologic and geophysical source.
The maps presented here provide an update to the 2008 data contained in U.S Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Map 3195 ( http://pubs.usgs.gov/sim/3195/ ).Probabilistic seismic-hazard maps were prepared for the conterminous United States for 2014 portraying peak horizontal acceleration and horizontal spectral response acceleration for 0.2- and 1.0-second periods with probabilities of exceedance of 10 percent in 50 years and 2 percent in 50 years. All of the maps were prepared by combining the hazard derived from spatially smoothed historical seismicity with the hazard from fault-specific sources. The acceleration values contoured are the random horizontal component. The reference site condition is firm rock, defined as having an average shear-wave velocity of 760 m/s in the top 30 meters corresponding to the boundary between NEHRP (National Earthquake Hazards Reduction program) site classes B and C. This data set represents the results of calculations of hazard curves for a grid of points with a spacing of 0.05 degrees in latitude and longitude. The grid of points was contoured to produce the final representation of the seismic hazard. These maps are intended to summarize the available quantitative information about seismic ground motion hazard for the conterminous United States from geologic and geophysical sources.
The proposed trans-Alaska oil pipeline, which would traverse the state north to south from Prudhoe Bay on the Arctic coast to Valdez on Prince William Sound, will be subject to serious earthquake hazards over much of its length. To be acceptable from an environmental standpoint, the pipeline system is to be designed to minimize the potential of oil leakage resulting from seismic shaking, faulting, and seismically induced ground deformation. The design of the pipeline system must accommodate the effects of earthquakes with magnitudes ranging from 5.5 to 8.5 as specified in the 'Stipulations for Proposed Trans-Alaskan Pipeline System.' This report characterizes ground motions for the specified earthquakes in terms of peak levels of ground acceleration, velocity, and displacement and of duration of shaking. Published strong motion data from the Western United States are critically reviewed to determine the intensity and duration of shaking within several kilometers of the slipped fault. For magnitudes 5 and 6, for which sufficient near-fault records are available, the adopted ground motion values are based on data. For larger earthquakes the values are based on extrapolations from the data for smaller shocks, guided by simplified theoretical models of the faulting process.
THE development of the concept of seismic gaps, regions of low earthquake activity where large events are expected, has been one of the notable achievements of seismology and plate tectonics. Its application to long-term earthquake hazard assessment continues to be an active field of seismological research. Here I have surveyed well documented case histories of repeated rupture of the same segment of circum-Pacific plate boundary and characterized their general features. I find that variability in fault slip and spatial extent of great earthquakes rupturing the same plate boundary segment is typical rather than exceptional but sequences of major events fill identified seismic gaps with remarkable order. Earthquakes are concentrated late in the seismic cycle and occur with increasing size and magnitude. Furthermore, earthquake rupture starts near zones of concentrated moment release, suggesting that high-slip regions control the timing of recurrent events. The absence of major earthquakes early in the seismic cycle indicates a more complex behaviour for lower-slip regions, which may explain the observed cycle-to-cycle diversity of gap-filling sequences.
Immediately following the Jan. 17, 1995, Kobe earthquake, a reconnaissance team was organized under the auspices of the Earthquake Hazard Mitigation Program of the Engineering Directorate of the National Science Foundation. The mission of the team was to provide a timely, first-hand overview of the type and extent of the damage, and to provide the necessary background information for future research and for U.S.-Japan cooperation in earthquake engineering. Additional information was gathered through participation in U.S.-Japan seminars and workshops, and through collaboration with researchers and practicing engineers in Japan. The research team has focused its efforts on seismology, strong ground motion, geotechnical engineering, and structural engineering. This report provides summaries of the findings in these subject areas.
Since their inception over 20 years ago, the maximum considered earthquake ground motion maps in U.S. building codes have capped probabilistic values with deterministic ground motions from characteristic earthquakes on known active faults. This practice has increasingly been called into question both because of spatially non-uniform risk levels that are produced (risk being higher mainly in coastal California) and practical difficulties in defining characteristic earthquakes from recent earthquake rupture forecast models. We describe two proposals developed to enable phase-out of deterministic caps. One approach modestly increases collapse risk targets nationwide based on recent information on return periods of characteristic earthquakes on major central and eastern U.S. seismic sources; adoption of this approach would remove the perceived need for caps in California. The second approach uses geographically varying collapse risk targets, being higher near the highly active faults in California and unchanged elsewhere. Neither approach was adopted for the 2020 National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program recommended seismic Provisions for new building structures, but they are described in a Part 3 document to accompany the Provisions and Commentary .