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USGS2006

Perspectives on LANDFIRE Prototype Project accuracy assessment

The purpose of this chapter is to provide a general overview of the many aspects of accuracy assessment pertinent to the Landscape Fire and Resource Management Planning Tools Prototype Project (LANDFIRE Prototype Project). The LANDFIRE Prototype formed a large and complex research and development project with many broad-scale data sets and products developed throughout its various stages. The scope of the project was defined as mapping and modeling vegetation, wildland fuel, and fire regime characteristics (Rollins and others, Ch. 2). Because of the breadth of the investigation, it is important to base our expectations for accuracy on a clear understanding of the intricacies, interdependencies, and scope of mapping and modeling LANDFIRE products. Our goals in this chapter are to: 1) provide relevant background information regarding accuracies and what was realistically achievable in the LANDFIRE Prototype, 2) provide background regarding our strategies for LANDFIRE National, 3) describe our actual LANDFIRE Prototype accuracy results in broad terms, and 4) provide recommendations for the national implementation of LANDFIRE. This chapter is not intended to provide an exhaustive list and description of all of the various accuracy-related issues and conclusions resulting from the LANDFIRE Prototype (for specific details, the reader will be referred to the appropriate chapters). Rather, this chapter is intended to be broad in scope and to place the many accuracy components within the context of the LANDFIRE Prototype and LANDFIRE National projects. Please note that Lunetta and Lyon (2004) provide an in-depth discussion of the current state of accuracy assessment within the science community.

General Technical Report↗

USGS2024

Rappahannock tributary summary: A summary of trends in tidal water quality and associated factors, 1985-2022

The Rappahannock Tributary Summary outlines change over time for a suite of monitored tidal water quality parameters and associated potential drivers of those trends for the period of 1985 to 2022, and provides a brief description of the current state of knowledge explaining these observed changes. Water quality parameters described include surface (above pycnocline) total nitrogen (TN), surface total phosphorus (TP), surface water temperature (WTEMP), spring (March-May) and summer (JulySeptember) surface chlorophyll a, summer bottom (below pycnocline) dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations, and Secchi disk depth (a measure of water clarity). Results for annual bottom TP, bottom TN, surface ortho-phosphate (PO 4 ), surface dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN), surface total suspended solids (TSS), and summer surface DO concentrations are provided in Appendix B. Drivers discussed include physiographic watershed characteristics, changes in TN, TP, and sediment loads from the watershed to tidal waters, expected effects of changing land use, and implementation of nutrient management and natural resource conservation practices. Factors internal to estuarine waters that also play a role as drivers are described including biogeochemical processes, physical forces such as winddriven mixing of the water column and increase in rainfall intensity and volume, and biological factors such as phytoplankton biomass and the presence of submerged aquatic vegetation. Continuing to track water quality response and investigating these influencing factors are important steps to understanding water quality patterns and changes in the Rappahannock River. The intended audiences for this report include, but are not limited to, 1) technical managers within jurisdictions who are looking at tidal water quality data and trying to understand why patterns are occurring, 2) local watershed organizations that are trying to understand these analyses and working to connect them to their local area(s), and 3) federal, state, and academic researchers. Figure 1 presents a conceptual model highlighting these intended audiences. Our goal is for the Tributary Summary documents to be sources of readily available background for change over time in tidal water quality observed with monitoring data. The intended purpose of the Tributary Summary documents is to help answer questions related to water quality, show how landscape factors drive water quality change over time, provide support for management decisions that may alter water quality trends and living resources conditions, and highlight where there may be information or knowledge gaps.

Virginia↗

USGS2012

Likelihood analysis of species occurrence probability from presence-only data for modelling species distributions

1. Understanding the factors affecting species occurrence is a pre-eminent focus of applied ecological research. However, direct information about species occurrence is lacking for many species. Instead, researchers sometimes have to rely on so-called presence-only data (i.e. when no direct information about absences is available), which often results from opportunistic, unstructured sampling. MAXENT is a widely used software program designed to model and map species distribution using presence-only data. 2. We provide a critical review of MAXENT as applied to species distribution modelling and discuss how it can lead to inferential errors. A chief concern is that MAXENT produces a number of poorly defined indices that are not directly related to the actual parameter of interest – the probability of occurrence ( ψ ). This focus on an index was motivated by the belief that it is not possible to estimate ψ from presence-only data; however, we demonstrate that ψ is identifiable using conventional likelihood methods under the assumptions of random sampling and constant probability of species detection. 3. The model is implemented in a convenient r package which we use to apply the model to simulated data and data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey. We demonstrate that MAXENT produces extreme under-predictions when compared to estimates produced by logistic regression which uses the full (presence/absence) data set. We note that MAXENT predictions are extremely sensitive to specification of the background prevalence, which is not objectively estimated using the MAXENT method. 4. As with MAXENT, formal model-based inference requires a random sample of presence locations. Many presence-only data sets, such as those based on museum records and herbarium collections, may not satisfy this assumption. However, when sampling is random, we believe that inference should be based on formal methods that facilitate inference about interpretable ecological quantities instead of vaguely defined indices.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2008

High resolution imaging science experiment (HiRISE) images of volcanic terrains from the first 6 months of the Mars reconnaissance orbiter primary science phase

In the first 6 months of the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter's Primary Science Phase, the High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment (HiRISE) camera has returned images sampling the diversity of volcanic terrains on Mars. While many of these features were noted in earlier imaging, they are now seen with unprecedented clarity. We find that some volcanic vents produced predominantly effusive products while others generated mostly pyroclastics. Flood lavas were emplaced in both turbulent and gentle eruptions, producing roofed channels and inflation features. However, many areas on Mars are too heavily mantled to allow meter-scale volcanic features to be discerned. In particular, the major volcanic edifices are extensively mantled, though it is possible that some of the mantle is pyroclastic material rather than atmospheric dust. Support imaging by the Context Imager (CTX) and topographic information derived from stereo imaging are both invaluable in interpreting the HiRISE data.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗

USGS2006

Estimating landslide losses - preliminary results of a seven-State pilot project

Introduction: In 2001, the U.S. Geological Survey Landslide Hazards Program provided funding for seven State geological surveys to report on the status of landslide investigation strategies in each of their States, and to suggest improved ways to approach the tracking of landslides, their effects, losses associated with the landslides, and hazard mitigation strategies. Each State was to provide a draft report suggesting innovative ways to track landslides, and to participate in subsequent workshops. A workshop was convened in June 2003 in Lincoln, Neb., to discuss the results and future strategies on how best to incorporate the seven pilot projects into one methodology that all of the 50 States could adopt. The seven individual reports produced by the State surveys are published here to put forth a forum for discussion of the varying methods of tracking landslides. The goal is to eventually adopt a single, universally applied methodology to track landslides that will provide a consistent framework for collecting data on landslide damage and economic impact. Participating States include: California (James Davis, Jack McMillan); Kentucky (Jim Cobb, John Kiefer, John Rockaway); Nebraska (Mark Kuzila, Duane Eversoll); Ohio (Thomas Berg, Jon Rockaway), Oregon (John Beaulieu, Yumei Wang, Renee Summers, Jon Hofmeister); Pennsylvania (Jay Parrish, Helen Delano); Utah (Richard Allis, Francis Ashland). The USGS personnel involved in the planning and meeting facilitation are Paula Gori, Peter Lyttle, and John Pallister. The general USGS strategy to address landslide loss reduction was developed with input from State geological surveys, the engineering-geology consulting community, and academic investigators. The strategy was reviewed by the National Research Council, 2004), is summarized in USGS Circular 1244 (Spiker and Gori, 2003) and is endorsed by the AASG. This pilot study, conducted by seven State geological surveys, examines the feasibility of collecting accurate and reliable information on economic losses associated with landslides. Each State survey examined the availability, distribution, and inherent uncertainties of economic loss data in their study areas. Their results provide the basis for identifying the most fruitful methods of collecting landslide loss data nationally, using methods that are consistent and provide common goals. These results can enhance and establish the future directions of scientific investigation priorities by convincingly documenting landslide risks and consequences that are universal throughout the 50 States. This report is organized as follows: A general summary of the pilot project history, goals, and preliminary conclusions from the Lincoln, Neb. workshop are presented first. Internet links are then provided for each State report, which appear on the internet in PDF format and which have been placed at the end of this open-file report. A reference section follows the reports, and, lastly, an Appendix of categories of landslide loss and sources of loss information is included for the reader's information. Please note: The Oregon Geological Survey has also submitted a preliminary report on indirect loss estimation methodology, which is also linked with the others. Each State report is unique and presented in the form in which it was submitted, having been independently peer reviewed by each respective State survey. As such, no universal 'style' or format has been adopted as there have been no decisions on which inventory methods will be recommended to the 50 states, as of this writing. The reports are presented here as information for decision makers, and for the record; although several reports provide recommendations on inventory methods that could be adopted nationwide, currently no decisions have been made on adopting a uniform methodology for the States.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2023

User needs assessment for postfire debris-flow inundation hazard products

Debris flows are a type of mass movement that is more likely after wildfires, and while existing hazard assessments evaluate the rainfall intensities that are likely to trigger debris flows, no operational hazard assessment exists for identifying the areas where they will run out after initiation. Fifteen participants who work in a wide range of job functions associated with southern California postfire hazards were selected using purposive sampling for unstructured interviews about useful characteristics and needs for postfire debris-flow inundation hazard assessments. The interview guide was developed by a team of social and physical scientists following best practices for engaging with users. The guide focused on target information that could influence ongoing or not-yet-initiated research on debris-flow physics and hazard assessment methodology. Following standard methods for user needs assessment, the audio from the unstructured interviews was recorded, transcribed, and analyzed using a thematic coding scheme. Participants reported engaging with postfire debris-flow inundation as one of multiple postfire hazards and their information needs reflect this breadth. Most participants were from organizations with life and property mandates, and this focused their concerns on where debris-flow inundation could impact people’s physical safety, the ability of populations to egress, and damage to property. Common comments included, (1) the need to interpret inundation hazard assessments in the context of forecast rainfall—which are typically associated with different timeframes, 15 and 60 minutes, respectively; (2) the need to provide multiple scenarios in a hazard assessment to show how the hazard changes under different external factors such as varying rainfall intensity; and (3) the tension between fully reflecting all sources of uncertainty in identifying impacted areas and a high level of precision needed to determine evacuation zones in order to reduce evacuation fatigue. Participants saw utility in both low-resolution hazard assessments over large areas and fine-resolution targeted assessments over small areas, noting that the identification of target areas could pose an ethical challenge because some areas might be prioritized over others. Participants were concerned about the hazard posed by the continuum of postfire hydrologic hazards, including hyperconcentrated flows. Finally, participants recognized that the shrinking time window between the end of fire season and the start of the wet season in southern California makes the production, interpretation, and use of rapid postfire debris-flow inundation hazard assessments both important and challenging.

California↗

USGS2010

Note on the applicability of the James-Stein Estimator in regional hydrologic studies

The applicability of the James-Stein estimator in regional hydrologic studies which entail the estimation of an N -dimensional location parameter is discussed. Regional studies are frequently characterized by relatively short, generally correlated, samples drawn from nonsymmetric and bounded, i.e., nonnormal, populations. By means of computer simulation studies the James-Stein estimator, subject to the Lindley modification and adoption of the positive part rule suggested by Efron and Morris and conditioned on the assumption of independence, was shown to be robust in the case of the hydrologically plausible distribution considered here, namely, Weibull distributions with coefficient of skewness ranging from 0 to 10. However, in contrast to traditional methods of regionalization the effect of cross correlation is a diminishment of the relative risk advantage of the James-Stein estimator, even in the best case of normal variables : this is discussed and illustrated.

Water Resources Research↗

USGS1994

Notes on a Mesodinium rubrum red tide in San Francisco Bay (California, USA)

Discrete red patches of water were observed in South San Francisco Bay (USA) on 30 April 1993, and examination of live samples showed that this red tide was caused by surface accumulations of the pigmented ciliate Mesodinium rubrum . Vertical profiles showed strong salinity and temperature stratification in the upper 5 m, peak chlorophyll fluorescence in the upper meter, and differences in the small-scale density structure and fluorescence distribution among red patches. Events preceding this Mesodinium red tide included: (i) heavy precipitation and run-off, allowing for strong salinity stratification; (ii) a spring diatom bloom where the chlorophyll a concentration reached 50 mg m −3 ; (ii) depletions of dissolved inorganic N and Si in the photic zone; and (iv) several days of rapid warming and stabilization of the upper surface layer. These conditions may be general prerequisites for M.rubrum blooms in temperate estuaries.

California↗

USGS2005

Cryopreservation of sperm of red abalone (Haliotis rufescens)

Abalone culture, a developing industry in Baja California, Mexico, would benefit from genetic improvement and controlled breeding. The use of cryopreserved sperm would allow germplasm availability, and this study was designed to develop sperm cryopreservation protocols for red abalone Haliotis rufescens . The acute toxic effects of the cryoprotectants dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO), propylene glycol (PG), and glycerol (GLY) were assessed after suspending sperm in different concentrations, whereby cryoprotectant treatments of 10% DMSO and 10% GLY equilibrated for 10 min yielded the highest range of motile sperm in preliminary freezing trials and were used for cryopreservation studies. To determine effective cooling rates, three freezing chambers were tested. Replicate samples of sperm from 4 males were placed in 0.5-mL French straws and frozen using a commercial freezing chamber (CFC) used for bull sperm, a programmable rate chamber (PRC), and a manually controlled styrofoam chamber (MCC). For the CFC, the cooling rate was 16°C/min, from 4°C to −140°C. For the PRC and MCC, it was 1°C/min, from −20°C to −30°C. The samples were held at −30°C for 5 min before being plunged into liquid nitrogen (−196°C) for storage, and each sample was thawed in a water bath at 45°C for 8 s. The quality of thawed sperm was determined by estimating percent motility, evaluating membrane integrity using a dual-staining technique and flow cytometry, and estimating fertilization rate. Statistical analyses were performed using 2-way ANOVA where chamber and treatment were the independent variables. Sperm quality parameters were independent. For motilities, a significant interaction was noted between the cryoprotective treatment and the chamber type, whereby motilities for DMSO and GLY were higher ( P = 0.0055) using MCC. Membrane integrities were significantly lower after using the PRC than the CFC or the MCC ( P = 0.0167). The highest post-thaw motility (48 ± 7%) was found using sperm suspended in 10% glycerol and frozen in the MCC. The highest percent of intact membranes (56 ± 11%) was for sperm suspended in 10% glycerol and frozen in the CFC. The highest fertilization rate (29 ± 10%) was with samples frozen with 10% glycerol in the CFC. The use of cryopreserved sperm from red abalone provides an alternative breeding option for culture and the protocols delineated are the first developed for this species.

Baja California↗

USGS2010

On the treatment of evapotranspiration, soil moisture accounting, and aquifer recharge in monthly water balance models

Several two- to six-parameter regional water balance models are examined by using 50-year records of monthly streamflow at 10 sites in New Jersey. These models include variants of the Thornthwaite-Mather model, the Palmer model, and the more recent Thomas abcd model. Prediction errors are relatively similar among the models. However, simulated values of state variables such as soil moisture storage differ substantially among the models, and fitted parameter values for different models sometimes indicated an entirely different type of basin response to precipitation. Some problems in parameter identification are noted, including difficulties in identifying an appropriate time lag factor for the Thornthwaite-Mather-type model for basins with little groundwater storage, very high correlations between upper and lower storages in the Palmer-type model, and large sensitivity of parameter a of the abcd model to bias in estimates of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. Modifications to the threshold concept of the Thornthwaite-Mather model were statistically valid for the six stations in northern New Jersey. The abcd model resulted in a simulated seasonal cycle of groundwater levels similar to fluctuations observed in nearby wells but with greater persistence. These results suggest that extreme caution should be used in attaching physical significance to model parameters and in using the state variables of the models in indices of drought and basin productivity.

Water Resources Research↗

USGS2019

Gopherus agassizii (Cooper 1861) – Agassiz’s Desert Tortoise, Mojave Desert Tortoise

The Mojave Desert Tortoise, Gopherus agassizii (Family Testudinidae), is a large terrestrial species that can reach >370 mm in straight midline carapace length (CL) but most individuals are smaller. Both sexes reach adulthood at 12 to 21 years and ca. 180 mm CL. The species is sexually dimorphic, with males typically larger than females; sexual characteristics of males become more obvious with increasing size and age. Females lay from 1 to 10 eggs per clutch and from 0 to 3 clutches annually, with eggs hatching after 67 to 104 days. Populations of G. agassizii have declined rapidly over the last several decades. Habitat throughout the geographic range has experienced major losses, degradation, and fragmentation as a result of urban and agricultural development, livestock grazing, military activities, transportation and utility corridors, high levels of visitor use, vehicle-oriented recreation, and energy development. Disturbed habitats were vulnerable to invading non-native grasses and forbs, creating an unnatural and destructive grass-fire cycle. When consumed by tortoises as their only diet, non-native (and native) grasses are harmful because of limited nutrients. Additionally, subsidized predators (Common Ravens, Coyotes, and dogs), infectious diseases, drought, and vandalism, add to the catastrophic effects of habitat loss and degradation. Tortoise populations have declined rapidly in density, and most populations are below viability, with fewer than 3.9 adults/km2. These declines occurred despite protections afforded by federal and state laws and regulations, ca. 26,000 km2 of federally designated critical habitat units, two Recovery Plans, and efforts to reduce the negative impacts of human activities. As noted by Allison and McLuckie (2018), the negative population trends in most of the critical habitat units suggest that under current conditions G. agassizii is on the path to extinction. Distribution. – USA. Distributed in parts of the southern Great Basin, Mojave, and western Sonoran deserts in southeastern California, southern Nevada, northwestern Arizona, and southwestern Utah, north and west of the Grand Canyon/Colorado River complex, with the exception of a small population east of the Colorado River. Synonymy. – Xerobates agassizii Cooper 1861, Testudo agassizii, Gopherus agassizii, Gopherus polyphemus agassizii, Scaptochelys agassizii, Xerobates lepidocephalus Ottley and Velázques Solis 1989. Subspecies . – None currently recognized. Status. – IUCN 2019 Red List: Vulnerable (VU A1acde+2cde; assessed 1996) ; TFTSG Provisional Red List: Critically Endangered (CR; assessed 2011, 2018); CITES: Appendix II (Testudinidae spp.); US ESA: Threatened.

Arizona, California, Nevada, Utah↗

USGS2021

American Woodcock singing-ground survey: Comparison of four models for trend in population size

Wildlife biologists monitor the status and trends of American woodcock Scolopax minor populations in the eastern and central United States and Canada via a singing-ground survey, conducted just after sunset along roadsides in spring. Annual analyses of the survey produce estimates of trend and annual indexes of abundance for 25 states and provinces, management regions, and survey-wide. In recent years, researchers have used a log-linear hierarchical model that defines year effects as random effects in the context of a slope parameter (the S model) to model population change. Recently, researchers have proposed alternative models suitable for analysis of singing-ground survey data. Analysis of a similar roadside survey, the North American Breeding Bird Survey, has indicated that alternative models are preferable for almost all species analyzed in the Breeding Bird Survey. Here, we use leave-one-out cross-validation to compare model fit for the present singing-ground survey model to fits of three alternative models, including a model that describes population change as the difference in expected counts between successive years (the D model) and two models that include t -distributed extra-Poisson overdispersion effects (H models) as opposed to normally distributed extra-Poisson overdispersion. Leave-one-out cross-validation results indicate that the Bayesian predictive information criterion favored the D model, but a pairwise t -test indicated that the D model was not significantly better-fitting to singing-ground survey data than the S model. The H models are not preferable to the alternatives with normally distributed overdispersion. All models provided generally similar estimates of trend and annual indexes suggesting that, within this model set, choice of model will not lead to alternative conclusions regarding population change. However, as in Breeding Bird Survey analyses, we note a tendency for S model results to provide slightly more extreme estimates of trend relative to D models. We recommend use of the D model for future singing-ground survey analyses.

Eastern and Central United States and Canada↗

USGS1999

Pronounced variation in tarsal and foot feathering in the upland buzzard (Buteo hemilasius) in Mongolia

During 1994, 1995, 1997, and 1998 expeditions across Mongolia, we located over 250 upland buzzard (Buteo hemilasius) nests. At these, we noted considerable morphological variation in plumage coloration and in leg pterylosis. In 1997 and 1998, we examined 131 nests scattered across eastern and central Mongolia and report here the tarsal condition of 119 nestlings from 59 broods where young were at least 2 weeks of age. Of 119 birds carefully examined, 50 (42%) had less than fully feathered tarsi and 4 of the 69 with fully feathered tarsi had scattered feathers on their toes. Thus, 54 of 119 birds (45%) in some way deviated from the feathered tarsibare toes condition. This extraordinary degree of variability in feather patterns may be best explained as the result of extensive and relatively recent hybridization between the longlegged (Buteo rufinus) and roughlegged (B. lagopus) buzzards and/or between long-legged and upland buzzards.

Journal of Raptor Research↗

USGS1977

Activity-product constants of brucite from 10 degrees to 90 degrees C

The activity-product constant of brucite, K B = [Mg 2+ ][OH - ] 2 (where the brackets denote activities), was determined experimentally at 10°, 25°, 40°, 55°, 70°, and 90°C. The values obtained for -log K B are 10.89±0.16 (10°), 10.88±0.10 (25°), 10.90±0.10 (40°), 10.90±0.10 (55°), 10.99±0.14 (70°), and 11.10±0.14 (90°). Using National Bureau of Standards Technical Note 270 data for the ions, the free energy of formation (Δ G ° t ) at 25° for brucite is 831.486 joules per mole ( 198,730 cal mol -1 ). Using data compiled by R. A. Robie and D. R. Waldbaum in 1968 for the ions, this Δ G ° t is -823,323 J mol -1 (-198,930 cal mol -1 ). Values of log KB are also calculated for the temperature range 0° to 200°C, by using thermochemical data listed by V. B. Parker, D. D. Wagman, and W. H. Evans in 1971 and E. G. King, M. J. Ferrante, and L. B. Pankratz in 1975 and the partial molal heat capacities estimated by C. M. Criss and J. W. Cobble in 1965. The experimental values are similar to the calculated values, especially at lower temperatures.

Journal of Research of the U.S. Geological Survey↗

USGS1996

Loess stratigraphy of the Lower Mississippi Valley

Loesses of the Lower Mississippi Valley (LMV) are world-famous. Sir Charles Lyell (1847), Hilgard (1860), Stafford (1869), Call (1891) and Mabry (1898), thought the LMV loess was a single water deposit although "double submergence" was noted by Call (1891) and Salisbury (1891). Shimek (1902) and Emerson (1918) recognized LMV loess as a wind deposit which came from the valley. Although wind-deposited loess gained wide acceptance, Russell (1944a) published his controversial theory of "loessification" which entailed weathering of backswamp deposits, downslope movement and recharge by carbonates to form loess. Wascher et al. (1947) identified three LMV loesses, mapped distributions and strongly supported eolian deposition. Leighton and Willman (1950), identified four loesses and supported eolian deposition as did Krinitzsky and Turnbull (1967) and Snowden and Priddy (1968), but Krinitzsky and Turnbull questioned the deepest loess. Daniels and Young (1968) and Touchet and Daniels (1970) studied the distribution of loesses in south-central Louisiana. West et al. (1980) and Rutledge et al. (1985) studied the source areas and wind directions which deposited the loesses on and adjoining Crowley's Ridge. B.J. Miller and co-workers (Miller et al., 1985, 1986, Miller and Alford, 1985) proposed that the Loveland Silt was Early Wisconsin rather than Illinoian age and advanced the name Sicily Island loess. They proposed the underlying loess was Illinoian and advanced the name Crowley's Ridge. We termed the loesses, from the surface downward, Peoria Loess, Roxana Silt, Loveland/Sicily Island loess, Crowley's Ridge Loess and Marianna loess. Researchers agree that the surfical Peoria Loess is Late Wisconsin and the Roxana Silt is Late to Middle Wisconsin, but little agreement exists on the age of the older loesses. Pye and Johnson (1988) proposed Early Wisconsin for the Loveland/Sicily Island. McKay and Follmer (1985) suggested this loess correlated with a loess under Illinoian till. Clark et al. (1989) agreed on Crowley's Ridge, but suggested the Loveland/Sicily Island loess on Sicily Island was older. Mirecki and Miller (1994) and Millard and Maat (1994) suggested an Illinoian age for the Loveland/Sicily Island loess. Miller and co-workers suggested, as did Pye and Johnson (1988), an Illinoian age for the Crowley's Ridge loess. McKay and Follmer (1985) suggested it correlated with a loess under "Kansan" till. Stratigraphy indicates the Marianna is the older of the five loesses. Researchers identified loess on both the east and west side of the LMV as well as on higher terraces within the valley. Many researchers assumed unaltered loesses were commonly yellowish brown, and silts or silt loams (West et al., 1980; Miller et al., 1986). The nonclay fraction of unweathered LMV loesses was dominated by quartz followed by carbonates, mainly dolomites, followed by feldspars, and micas. Clays were dominated by montmorillonite followed by micaceous minerals, kaolinite and vermiculite (Miller et al., 1986). Soils in the Crowley's Ridge loess are most developed, followed by the soils in the Loveland/Sicily Island which are more developed than the modern soils in the Peoria Loess. Soils in the Roxana and Marianna loesses are least developed and the Farmdale Soil of the Roxana is the weaker of the two (Miller et al., 1986). There is certainly overlapping range in the degree of soil development in the various loesses.

Engineering Geology↗

USGS2008

A global search for stress shadows

[1] Debate continues regarding the relative proportion of earthquakes triggered by passing seismic waves versus static stress changes from a main shock. Static stress changes are expected to have long‐term effects on earthquake probabilities, whereas dynamic stress changes due to the passing of seismic waves should not. Both mechanisms are expected to raise seismicity rates in some areas, but only static stress change calculations predict rate decrease shadows. Thus, identification of post‐main‐shock earthquake suppression is diagnostic of a static stress change process. We note that in principle, static stress change theory predicts suppression of particular earthquake mechanisms in a shadow zone rather than an overall rate reduction. A stress shadow can therefore be characterized by a change in the average earthquake focal mechanism before and after a main shock that results from suppression of a given mechanism type. We examined average mechanisms from ±2° radii and 5‐year periods before and after 119 M s ≥ 7 main shock earthquakes drawn from the Harvard Centroid Moment Tensor (CMT) catalog. Significant average mechanism changes caused by earthquake suppression were found in only two cases. However, by stacking the data, we were able to resolve statistically significant suppression of particular post‐main‐shock focal mechanisms. This indicates that, while static stress shadows are subtle, they are indeed present in the global catalog.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗

USGS2014

Crustal earthquake triggering by pre-historic great earthquakes on subduction zone thrusts

Triggering of earthquakes on upper plate faults during and shortly after recent great ( M> 8.0) subduction thrust earthquakes raises concerns about earthquake triggering following Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes. Of particular regard to Cascadia was the previously noted, but only qualitatively identified, clustering of M> ~6.5 crustal earthquakes in the Puget Sound region between about 1200–900 cal yr B.P. and the possibility that this was triggered by a great Cascadia thrust subduction thrust earthquake, and therefore portends future such clusters. We confirm quantitatively the extraordinary nature of the Puget Sound region crustal earthquake clustering between 1200–900 cal yr B.P., at least over the last 16,000. We conclude that this cluster was not triggered by the penultimate, and possibly full-margin, great Cascadia subduction thrust earthquake. However, we also show that the paleoseismic record for Cascadia is consistent with conclusions of our companion study of the global modern record outside Cascadia, that M> 8.6 subduction thrust events have a high probability of triggering at least one or more M> ~6.5 crustal earthquakes.

Cascadia;Puget Sound↗

USGS2012

Maximizing the utility of monitoring to the adaptive management of natural resources

Data collection is an important step in any investigation about the structure or processes related to a natural system. In a purely scientific investigation (experiments, quasi-experiments, observational studies), data collection is part of the scientific method, preceded by the identification of hypotheses and the design of any manipulations of the system to test those hypotheses. Data collection and the manipulations that precede it are ideally designed to maximize the information that is derived from the study. That is, such investigations should be designed for maximum power to evaluate the relative validity of the hypotheses posed. When data collection is intended to inform the management of ecological systems, we call it monitoring. Note that our definition of monitoring encompasses a broader range of data-collection efforts than some alternative definitions – e.g. Chapter 3. The purpose of monitoring as we use the term can vary, from surveillance or “thumb on the pulse” monitoring (see Nichols and Williams 2006), intended to detect changes in a system due to any non-specified source (e.g. the North American Breeding Bird Survey), to very specific and targeted monitoring of the results of specific management actions (e.g. banding and aerial survey efforts related to North American waterfowl harvest management). Although a role of surveillance monitoring is to detect unanticipated changes in a system, the same result is possible from a collection of targeted monitoring programs distributed across the same spatial range (Box 4.1). In the face of limited budgets and many specific management questions, tying monitoring as closely as possible to management needs is warranted (Nichols and Williams 2006). Adaptive resource management (ARM; Walters 1986, Williams 1997, Kendall 2001, Moore and Conroy 2006, McCarthy and Possingham 2007, Conroy et al. 2008a) provides a context and specific purpose for monitoring: to evaluate decisions with respect to achievement of specific management objectives; and to evaluate the relative validity of predictive system models. This latter purpose is analogous to the role of data collection within the scientific method, in a research context.

Book chapter↗