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At least 361 records · Page 20Linked to original sources

Alkalinity in tidal tributaries of the Chesapeake Bay

Despite the important role of alkalinity in estuarine carbon cycling, the seasonal and decadal variability of alkalinity, particularly within multiple tidal tributaries of the same estuary, is poorly understood. Here we analyze more than 26,000 alkalinity measurements, mostly from the 1980s and 1990s, in the major tidal tributaries of the Chesapeake Bay, a large, coastal-plain estuary of eastern North America. The long-term means of alkalinity in tidal-fresh waters vary by a factor of 6 among seven tidal tributaries, reflecting the alkalinity of non-tidal rivers draining to these estuaries. At 25 stations, mostly in the Potomac River Estuary, we find significant long-term increasing trends that exceed the trends in the non-tidal rivers upstream of those stations. Box model calculations in the Potomac River Estuary indicate that the main cause of the estuarine trends is a declining alkalinity sink. The magnitude of this sink is consistent with a simple model of calcification by the invasive bivalve Corbicula fluminea. More generally, in tidal tributaries fed by high-alkalinity non-tidal rivers, alkalinity is consumed, with sinks ranging from 8 to 27% of the upstream input. In contrast, tidal tributaries that are fed by low-alkalinity non-tidal rivers have sources of alkalinity amounting to 34 to 171% of the upstream input. For a single estuarine system, the Chesapeake Bay has diverse alkalinity dynamics and can thus serve as a laboratory for studying the numerous processes influencing alkalinity among the world’s estuaries.

Maryland, Virginia

Contrasting volcanism in Hawaiʻi and the Galápagos

The archipelagos of Hawai‘i and the Galápagos originated at mantle hotspots, yet the volcanoes that make up the island chains differ in most respects. Some of the most important differences include the dynamics of magma supply, characteristics of magma storage and transport, morphology, and compositional and structural evolution. Of particular significance in the Galápagos is the lack of well-developed rift zones, which may be related to higher rates of pre-eruptive inflation compared to Hawai‘i, and the absence of widespread flank instability—a common feature of Hawai‘i's volcanoes. The close proximity of the Galápagos to a mid-ocean-ridge system may account for many of the differences between Hawaiian and Galápagos volcanoes. The Galápagos archipelago is built on young, thin oceanic crust, which might allow for contemporaneous growth of numerous volcanoes, and its volcanoes are fed by a mix of plume and asthenospheric melt sources. Hawaiian volcanoes, in contrast, grew in the middle of the Pacific Plate on older, thicker crust, where localized changes in mantle and lithosphere structure and composition did not exert dominant control over volcano evolution.

Book chapter

Overhauling ocean spatial planning to improve marine megafauna conservation

Tracking data have led to evidence-based conservation of marine megafauna, but a disconnect remains between the many thousands of individual animals that have been tracked and the use of these data in conservation and management actions. Furthermore, the focus of most conservation efforts is within Exclusive Economic Zones despite the ability of these species to move thousands of kilometres across multiple national jurisdictions. To assist the goal of the United Nations General Assembly’s recent effort to negotiate a global treaty to conserve biodiversity on the high seas, we propose the development of a new frontier in dynamic marine spatial management. We argue that a global approach combining tracked movements of marine megafauna and human activities at-sea, and using existing and emerging technologies (e.g., through new tracking devices and big data approaches) can be applied to deliver near real-time diagnostics on existing risks and threats to mitigate global risks for marine megafauna. With technology developments over the next decade expected to catalyse the potential to survey marine animals and human activities in ever more detail and at global scales, the development of dynamic predictive tools based on near real-time tracking and environmental data will become crucial to address increasing risks. Such global tools for dynamic spatial and temporal management will, however, require extensive synoptic data updates and will be dependent on a shift to a culture of data sharing and open access. We propose a global mechanism to store and make such data available in near real-time, enabling a holistic view of space use by marine megafauna and humans that would significantly accelerate efforts to mitigate impacts and improve conservation and management of marine megafauna.

Frontiers in Marine Science

Southeast Regional Assessment Project for the National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey

The Southeastern United States spans a broad range of physiographic settings and maintains exceptionally high levels of faunal diversity. Unfortunately, many of these ecosystems are increasingly under threat due to rapid human development, and management agencies are increasingly aware of the potential effects that climate change will have on these ecosystems. Natural resource managers and conservation planners can be effective at preserving ecosystems in the face of these stressors only if they can adapt current conservation efforts to increase the overall resilience of the system. Climate change, in particular, challenges many of the basic assumptions used by conservation planners and managers. Previous conservation planning efforts identified and prioritized areas for conservation based on the current environmental conditions, such as habitat quality, and assumed that conditions in conservation lands would be largely controlled by management actions (including no action). Climate change, however, will likely alter important system drivers (temperature, precipitation, and sea-level rise) and make it difficult, if not impossible, to maintain recent historic conditions in conservation lands into the future. Climate change will also influence the future conservation potential of non-conservation lands, further complicating conservation planning. Therefore, there is a need to develop and adapt effective conservation strategies to cope with the effects of climate and landscape change on future environmental conditions. Congress recognized this important issue and authorized the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC; http://nccw.usgs.gov/) in the Fiscal Year 2008. The NCCWSC will produce science that will help resource management agencies anticipate and adapt to climate change impacts to fish, wildlife, and their habitats. With the release of Secretarial Order 3289 on September 14, 2009, the mandate of the NCCWSC was expanded to address climate change-related impacts on all Department of the Interior (DOI) resources. The NCCWSC will establish a network of eight DOI Regional Climate Science Centers (RCSCs) that will work with a variety of partners to provide natural resource managers with tools and information that will help them anticipate and adapt conservation planning and design for projected climate change. The forecasting products produced by the RCSCs will aid fish, wildlife, and land managers in designing suitable adaptive management approaches for their programs. The DOI also is developing Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) as science and conservation action partnerships at subregional scales. The USGS is working with the Southeast Region of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) to develop science collaboration between the future Southeast RCSC and future LCCs. The NCCWSC Southeast Regional Assessment Project (SERAP) will begin to develop regional downscaled climate models, land cover change models, regional ecological models, regional watershed models, and other science tools. Models and data produced by SERAP will be used in a collaborative process between the USGS, the FWS (LCCs), State and federal partners, nongovernmental organizations, and academia to produce science at appropriate scales to answer resource management questions. The SERAP will produce an assessment of climate change, and impacts on land cover, ecosystems, and priority species in the region. The predictive tools developed by the SERAP project team will allow end users to better understand potential impacts of climate change and sea level rise on terrestrial and aquatic populations in the Southeastern United States. The SERAP capitalizes on the integration of five existing projects: (1) the Multi-State Conservation Grants Program project "Designing Sustainable Landscapes," (2) the USGS multidisciplinary Science Thrust project "Water Availability for Ecological Needs," (3) the USGS Southeast Pilot Project "Climate Change in the Southeastern U.S. and its Impacts on Bird Distributions and Habitats," (4) a sea-level rise impacts study envisioned jointly with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and (5) two USGS sea-level rise impact assessment projects that address inundation hazards and provide probabilistic forecasts of coastal geomorphic change. The SERAP will expand on these existing projects and include the following tasks, which were initiated in summer 2009: * Regionally downscaled probabilistic climate-change projections * Integrated coastal assessment * Integrated terrestrial assessment * Multi-resolution assessment of potential climate change effects on biological resources: aquatic and hydrologic dynamics * Optimal conservation strategies to cope with climate change The SERAP seeks to formally integrate these tasks to aid conservation planning and design so that ecosystem management decisions can be optimized for providing desirable outcomes across a range of species and environments. The following chapters detail SERAP's efforts in providing a suite of regional climate, watershed, and landscape-change analyses and develop the interdisciplinary framework required for the biological planning phases of adaptive management and strategic conservation. The planning phase will include the identification of conservation alternatives, development of predictive models and decision support tools, and development of a template to address similar challenges and goals in other regions. The project teams will explore and develop ways to link the various ecological models arising from each component. The SERAP project team also will work closely with members of the LCCs and other partnerships throughout the life of the project to ensure that the objectives of the project meet resources mangers needs in the Southeast.

Open-File Report

A westward extension of the warm pool leads to a westward extension of the Walker circulation, drying eastern Africa

Observations and simulations link anthropogenic greenhouse and aerosol emissions with rapidly increasing Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Over the past 60 years, the Indian Ocean warmed two to three times faster than the central tropical Pacific, extending the tropical warm pool to the west by ~40° longitude (>4,000 km). This propensity toward rapid warming in the Indian Ocean has been the dominant mode of interannual variability among SSTs throughout the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans (55°E–140°W) since at least 1948, explaining more variance than anomalies associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In the atmosphere, the primary mode of variability has been a corresponding trend toward greatly increased convection and precipitation over the tropical Indian Ocean. The temperature and rainfall increases in this region have produced a westward extension of the western, ascending branch of the atmospheric Walker circulation. Diabatic heating due to increased mid-tropospheric water vapor condensation elicits a westward atmospheric response that sends an easterly flow of dry air aloft toward eastern Africa. In recent decades (1980–2009), this response has suppressed convection over tropical eastern Africa, decreasing precipitation during the ‘long-rains’ season of March–June. This trend toward drought contrasts with projections of increased rainfall in eastern Africa and more ‘El Niño-like’ conditions globally by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Increased Indian Ocean SSTs appear likely to continue to strongly modulate the Warm Pool circulation, reducing precipitation in eastern Africa, regardless of whether the projected trend in ENSO is realized. These results have important food security implications, informing agricultural development, environmental conservation, and water resource planning.

Climate Dynamics

An efficient method to calculate depth-integrated, phase-averaged momentum balances in non-hydrostatic models

Analysis of the mean (wave-averaged) momentum balance is a common approach used to explain the physical forcing driving wave set-up and mean currents in the nearshore zone. Traditionally this approach has been applied to phase-averaged models but has more recently been applied to phase-resolving models using post-processing, whereby model output is used to calculate each of the momentum terms. While phase-resolving models have the advantage of capturing the nonlinear properties of waves propagating in the nearshore (making them advantageous to enhance understanding of nearshore processes), the post-processing calculation of the momentum terms does not guarantee that the momentum balance closes. We show that this is largely due to the difficulty (or impossibility) of being consistent with the numerical approach. If the residual is of a similar magnitude as any of the relevant momentum terms (which is common with post-processing methods as we show), the analysis is largely compromised. Here we present a new method to internally calculate and extract the depth-integrated, mean momentum terms in the phase-resolving non-hydrostatic wave-flow model SWASH in a manner that is consistent with the numerical implementation. Further, we demonstrate the utility of the new method with two existing physical model studies. By being consistent with the numerical framework, the internal method calculates the momentum terms with a much lower residual at computer precision, combined with greatly reduced calculation time and output storage requirements compared to post-processing techniques. The method developed here allows the accurate evaluation of the depth-integrated, mean momentum terms of wave-driven flows while taking advantage of the more complete representation of the wave dynamics offered by phase-resolving models. Furthermore, it provides an opportunity for advances in the understanding of nearshore processes particularly at more complex sites where wave nonlinearity and energy transfers are important.

Ocean Modelling

The Far-Field imprint of the late Paleozoic Ice Age, its demise, and the onset of a dust-house climate across the Eastern Shelf of the Midland Basin, Texas

The late Paleozoic is a period of pronounced climatic and tectonic change, characterized by the onset and disappearance of continental-scale glaciers across polar Gondwana, the formation of Pangea, and widespread large igneous province volcanism. The low-latitude equatorial tropics are assumed to be places of persistent warm and wet climatic conditions throughout the Phanerozoic, which through intense silicate weathering, exert a major influence on Earth’s climate via the consumption of atmospheric carbon through carbonic hydrolytic weathering, formation of clay minerals and deliverability of alkalinity to ocean basins. Here we investigate the late Paleozoic sedimentary record of the Eastern Shelf of the Midland Basin in order to refine the climatic and provenance record of this region. The Eastern Shelf of the Midland Basin was situated within the equatorial tropics throughout the late Paleozoic and was connected to the open ocean through a network of fluvial systems that drained into the marine Midland Basin. We present new U-Pb zircon geochronology (19 samples, 2591 analyses) and sedimentary petrography (11 samples, 5800 grain counts), which we integrate with previously published paleobotany, paleosol chemistry and clay mineralogy to provide a holistic climate and tectonic record from this region. We observe major changes in sedimentary processes that we attribute to the formation of Pangea, eustatic changes linked to a dynamic high-latitude glaciation and teleconnections with low latitude hydrology, and a long-term shift in the Earth climate system all of which result in a dynamic sediment provenance history. Late Pennsylvanian and earliest Permian deposits are enriched in zircons with local affinity and interpreted to reflect local uplift and repeat incision across the basin margin, the latter a result of glacioeustatic forcing during an “everwet” climate. A major paleoenvironmental shift occurs in the late early Permian, which is reflected by the transition from fluvial to mixed fluvial-aeolian and ultimately aeolian dominant sedimentation by the late Permian. The transition from fluvial to aeolian dominant sedimentation is accompanied by a change in clay chemistry, sedimentary rock textual maturity, paleosol morphology and a threefold increase in Paleozoic zircons in the mid to late Permian strata. Widespread loess deposits across equatorial Pangea during the Permian have been used to argue for the possibility of equatorial glaciers situated in highland settings during the early Permian. Conversely, our data suggest initiation of a substantial component of aeolian deposition across the field areas, which is coincident with widespread ice loss across high latitude Gondwana, and ultimately highlights the teleconnections between high latitude glaciation and the low latitude hydrologic cycle.

Texas

Cascadia Margin cold seeps: Subduction zone fluids, gas hydrates, and chemosynthetic habitats

Priority Geographic Area: The outer continental shelf and upper continental slope from Canada/U.S. border offshore Washington State to the Mendocino Fracture Zone (Northern California), entirely within the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), from the outermost shelf to at least 2000 m water depth (Figure 1). Description of Priority Area: Since 2015, over a thousand water column gas plumes originating at seafloor gas seeps have been discovered landward of the Cascadia deformation front (e.g., Embley et al., 2016; Johnson et al., 2015, 2019; Merle and Embley, 2016; NA-95 Cruise Report, 2018; Riedel et al., 2018), adding to those that had long been known on Hydrate Ridge (e.g., Heeschen et al., 2003; Tréhu et al., 2004). The recently-discovered seeps stretch from offshore Vancouver Island to the Mendocino Fracture Zone and from the outer shelf to ~2000 m water depth, occurring both landward and seaward of the nominal limit for gas hydrate stability zone on the upper continental slope (Figure 1). Hundreds of seeps likely remain undiscovered. Water column imaging is incomplete both within the target geographic area and farther seaward, between the 2000 m isobath and the deformation front, which is the subject of an imaging study described in a white paper by Watt et al. The recently-discovered Cascadia Margin cold seeps partially overlap an important active margin gas hydrate province (Spence et al., 2001; Tréhu et al., 2003, 2004), as well as an area where sediments on the North American plate are folded and faulted and affected by fluids generated in the subduction complex beneath the Cascadia forearc (e.g., Saffer and Tobin, 2011). Several Ocean Drilling Program expeditions have focused on hydrate systems offshore Vancouver and Oregon (e.g., Riedel et al., 2009; Tréhu et al., 2004) and on the connection between the shallow and deep hydrogeologic systems. Cabled observatories now continuously monitor physical, chemical, and venting processes on south Hydrate Ridge (OOI; e.g., Philip et al., 2016a) and offshore Vancouver Island (NEPTUNE; e.g. Römer et al., 2016). Outside of these well-studied gas hydrate areas, a subset of the recently-discovered Cascadia seeps, including some that we visited with R/V Falkor in 2019 (e.g., https://schmidtocean.org/cruise/methane-seeps-at-edge-of-hydrate-stability/), also likely emit methane associated with shallow subseafloor gas hydrate systems. Other seeps are delivering not only methane, but also deep-derived gases (Baumberger et al., 2018, 2020) to the seafloor. Many Cascadia Margin seeps have also been recognized at water depths too shallow (e.g., 175 m) to be connected to gas hydrate dynamics. These seeps are postulated to be emitting gas and fluids that originated deep in accretionary wedge before migrating up normal faults generated during forearc extension associated with large earthquakes (Johnson et al., 2019). Only a small fraction of the recently discovered U.S. Cascadia Margin water column gas plumes has so far been verified by ROVs (Hercules from E/V Nautilus in 2016 and 2018; SuBastian from R/V Falkor in 2018 and 2019) to correspond to seafloor seeps. Careful scientific mapping, investigation, and sampling at the seeps have also been limited (e.g., Baumberger et al., 2018, 2020; Merle and Embley, 2016; Seabrook et al., 2018; Greinert et al. 2019). This white paper focuses on expanding exploration of already-identified U.S. Cascadia Margin cold seeps through a multipronged and multidisciplinary discovery program that could be accomplished with a variety of NOAA assets. The goals of the proposed exploration activities are to develop high-resolution maps of seep fields from deep ocean vehicles; to verify (and sample) seafloor gas emissions at the locations of water column plumes for compositional and isotopic studies; to map, sample, and conduct analyses on chemosynthetic communities and deep-sea coral habitats near seep sites to document species distributions and habitats as a function of depth and latitude along the margin; to collect seep geologic samples that can constrain the timing of methane emissions through geochronology; and to record environmental data (e.g., CTD) near the seafloor and in the water column above the seeps. Seafloor mapping using shipboard systems (multibeam/backscatter) would be needed to characterize seafloor features near seep sites. Water column imaging (EK60/80 and/or multibeam WCD data) conducted before and after seafloor explorations would capture active methane plumes and constrain temporal variations in seep emissions (e.g., Kannberg et al., 2013; Philip et al., 2016a, 2016b), which are known to vary on time scales as rapid as tidal cycles on this margin (e.g., Römer et al., 2016). What are the characterization and data needs in this area? Check all that apply: __x_ Biology, Geology, Physical Oceanography, Chemistry ___ Marine Archaeology ___ Other Provide a list or brief description of the data needed within this area, from your perspective: 1. Water column backscatter to image active gas plumes 2. High-resolution multibeam bathymetry, seafloor backscatter, and shallow sub-bottom imaging 3. Visual characterization and ground truthing of potential seeps, including high-resolution mapping and photography from near-seafloor vehicles; collection of seep-associated species, corals, sediments, authigenic carbonates, gases, and seawater Describe relevance to national security, conservation, and/or the economy: The Cascadia margin seeps provide significant ecosystem services, including habitat for commercially important fishes and support for diversity along the continental margin. Methane seeps are also biological hotspots for krill, plankton, and crustaceans, which in turn sustain higher trophic levels (e.g., whales). Methane-derived authigenic carbonates serve as a hard substrate for deep-sea corals and sponges on millennial time scales. The studies proposed here will elucidate the relationship among seep environments, deep-sea corals, sponges, fisheries, and other organisms and provide new insight into subduction zone and hydrate-associated fluids in this important seismogenic zone. The studies address fishery management concerns and inform future conservation of sensitive species (e.g., deep-sea corals) and benthic habitats. From your perspective, what makes this area unique? The Cascadia Margin seeps are a critical component of the leaky margin that stretches from Baja California to the Aleutian Arc along the Pacific coastline of North America. Cold seeps have been intensely studied on the Gulf of Mexico and U.S. Atlantic passive margins with a focus on chemosynthetic communities, deep-sea corals, and leakage of microbially-generated and/or thermogenic hydrocarbons; however, the recently-discovered Cascadia Margin seeps, as well as active margin seep systems in general, remain more poorly characterized. Such seeps not only contribute to the ocean carbon cycle (e.g., Pohlman et al., 2011), thereby fueling the base of the food chain in these settings, but also emit subduction zone fluids that provide clues about processes within the seismogenic zone and the accretionary complex. The Cascadia seeps area allows both biological (e.g., benthic habitats, coral distributions) and physical processes (e.g., generation of subduction zone fluids) to be studied along both depth (perpendicular to the deformation front) and latitudinal gradients.

California, Oregon, Washington

Modeling for the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario-generation, propagation, inundation, and currents in ports and harbors: Chapter D in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

This U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Open-File report presents a compilation of tsunami modeling studies for the Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami scenario. These modeling studies are based on an earthquake source specified by the SAFRR tsunami source working group (Kirby and others, 2013). The modeling studies in this report are organized into three groups. The first group relates to tsunami generation. The effects that source discretization and horizontal displacement have on tsunami initial conditions are examined in section 1 (Whitmore and others). In section 2 (Ryan and others), dynamic earthquake rupture models are explored in modeling tsunami generation. These models calculate slip distribution and vertical displacement of the seafloor as a result of realistic fault friction, physical properties of rocks surrounding the fault, and dynamic stresses resolved on the fault. The second group of papers relates to tsunami propagation and inundation modeling. Section 3 (Thio) presents a modeling study for the entire California coast that includes runup and inundation modeling where there is significant exposure and estimates of maximum velocity and momentum flux at the shoreline. In section 4 (Borrero and others), modeling of tsunami propagation and high-resolution inundation of critical locations in southern California is performed using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model and NOAA’s Community Model Interface for Tsunamis (ComMIT) modeling tool. Adjustments to the inundation line owing to fine-scale structures such as levees are described in section 5 (Wilson). The third group of papers relates to modeling of hydrodynamics in ports and harbors. Section 6 (Nicolsky and Suleimani) presents results of the model used at the Alaska Earthquake Information Center for the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, as well as synthetic time series of the modeled tsunami for other selected locales in southern California. Importantly, section 6 provides a comparison of the effect of including horizontal displacements at the source described in section 1 and differences in bottom friction on wave heights and inundation in the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Modeling described in section 7 (Lynett and Son) uses a higher order physical model to determine variations of currents during the tsunami and complex flow structures such as jets and eddies. Section 7 also uses sediment transport models to estimate scour and deposition of sediment in ports and harbors—a significant effect that was observed in southern California following the 2011 Tohoku tsunami. Together, all of the sections in this report form the basis for damage, impact, and emergency preparedness aspects of the SAFRR tsunami scenario. Three sections of this report independently calculate wave height and inundation results using the source specified by Kirby and others (2013). Refer to figure 29 in section 3, figure 52 in section 4, and figure 62 in section 6. All of these results are relative to a mean high water (MHW) vertical datum. Slight differences in the results are observed in East Basin of the Port of Los Angeles, Alamitos Bay, and the Seal Beach National Wildlife Refuge. However, given that these three modeling efforts involved different implementations of the source, different numerical wave propagation and runup models, and slight differences in the digital elevation models (DEMs), the similarity among the results is remarkable.

California

Evaluation of airborne lidar elevation surfaces for propagation of coastal inundation: the importance of hydrologic connectivity

Detailed information about coastal inundation is vital to understanding dynamic and populated areas that are impacted by storm surge and flooding. To understand these natural hazard risks, lidar elevation surfaces are frequently used to model inundation in coastal areas. A single-value surface method is sometimes used to inundate areas in lidar elevation surfaces that are below a specified elevation value. However, such an approach does not take into consideration hydrologic connectivity between elevation grids cells resulting in inland areas that should be hydrologically connected to the ocean, but are not. Because inland areas that should drain to the ocean are hydrologically disconnected by raised features in a lidar elevation surface, simply raising the water level to propagate coastal inundation will lead to inundation uncertainties. We took advantage of this problem to identify hydrologically disconnected inland areas to point out that they should be considered for coastal inundation, and that a lidar-based hydrologic surface should be developed with hydrologic connectivity prior to inundation analysis. The process of achieving hydrologic connectivity with hydrologic-enforcement is not new, however, the application of hydrologically-enforced lidar elevation surfaces for improved coastal inundation mapping as approached in this research is innovative. In this article, we propagated a high-resolution lidar elevation surface in coastal Staten Island, New York to demonstrate that inland areas lacking hydrologic connectivity to the ocean could potentially be included in inundation delineations. For inland areas that were hydrologically disconnected, we evaluated if drainage to the ocean was evident, and calculated an area exceeding 11 ha (~0.11 km 2 ) that could be considered in inundation delineations. We also assessed land cover for each inland area to determine the type of physical surfaces that would be potentially impacted if the inland areas were considered as part of a coastal inundation. A visual analysis indicated that developed, medium intensity and palustrine forested wetland land cover types would be impacted for those locations. This article demonstrates that hydrologic connectivity is an important factor to consider when inundating a lidar elevation surface. This information is needed for inundation monitoring and management in sensitive coastal regions.

Remote Sensing

Flash drought: A state of the science review

In the two decades, since the advent of the term “flash drought,” considerable research has been directed toward the topic. Within the scientific community, we have actively forged a new paradigm that has avoided a chaotic evolution of conventional drought but instead recognizes that flash droughts have distinct dynamics and, particularly, impacts. We have moved beyond the initial debate over the definition of flash drought to a centralized focus on the triad of rapid onset, drought development, and associated impacts. The refinement toward this general set of principles has led to significant progress in determining key variables for monitoring flash drought development, identifying notable case studies, and compiling fundamental physical characteristics of flash drought. However, critical focus areas still remain, including advancing our knowledge on the atmospheric and oceanic drivers of flash drought; developing flash drought-specific detection indices and monitoring systems tailored to practitioners; improving subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction of these events; constraining uncertainty in flash drought and impact projections; and using social science to further our understanding of impacts, particularly with regard to sectors that lie outside of our traditional hydroclimatological focus, such as wildfire management and food-security monitoring. Researchers and stakeholders working together on these critical topics will assure society is resilient to flash drought in a changing climate.

Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota

Joint spatiotemporal models to predict seabird densities at sea

Introduction: Seabirds are abundant, conspicuous members of marine ecosystems worldwide. Synthesis of distribution data compiled over time is required to address regional management issues and understand ecosystem change. Major challenges when estimating seabird densities at sea arise from variability in dispersion of the birds, sampling effort over time and space, and differences in bird detection rates associated with survey vessel type. Methods: Using a novel approach for modeling seabirds at sea, we applied joint dynamic species distribution models (JDSDM) with a vector-autoregressive spatiotemporal framework to survey data collected over nearly five decades and archived in the North Pacific Pelagic Seabird Database. We produced monthly gridded density predictions and abundance estimates for 8 species groups (77% of all birds observed) within Cook Inlet, Alaska. JDSDMs included habitat covariates to inform density predictions in unsampled areas and accounted for changes in observed densities due to differing survey methods and decadal-scale variation in ocean conditions. Results: The best fit model provided a high level of explanatory power (86% of deviance explained). Abundance estimates were reasonably precise, and consistent with limited historical studies. Modeled densities identified seasonal variability in abundance with peak numbers of all species groups in July or August. Seabirds were largely absent from the study region in either fall (e.g., murrelets) or spring (e.g., puffins) months, or both periods (shearwaters). Discussion: Our results indicated that pelagic shearwaters ( Ardenna spp.) and tufted puffin ( Fratercula cirrhata ) have declined over the past four decades and these taxa warrant further investigation into underlying mechanisms explaining these trends. JDSDMs provide a useful tool to estimate seabird distribution and seasonal trends that will facilitate risk assessments and planning in areas affected by human activities such as oil and gas development, shipping, and offshore wind and renewable energy.

Alaska

Integrating Sr isotopes, microchemistry, and genetics to reconstruct Salmonidae species and life history

Recent approaches to fisheries research emphasize the importance of the coproduction of knowledge in building resilient and culturally mindful fisheries management frameworks. Despite widespread recognition of the need for Indigenous knowledge and historical reference points as baseline data, archaeological data are rarely included in conservation biology research designs. Here we propose a novel multiproxy method to learn from former fisheries stewards by generating archaeological data on past salmonid population parameters. We used a newly developed, high throughput qPCR (HT-qPCR) chip, originally designed for environmental DNA (eDNA), for species identification of archaeological salmonid vertebrae. We combine this with the laser ablation split-stream (LASS) approach to identify ocean-migration versus freshwater residency. We test this multidisciplinary approach using both contemporary and archaeological salmonid samples and new radiocarbon dates from the Tronsdal Site on the Skagit River, Washington State, USA. This is a useful approach for extracting information about Salmonidae species and life history diversity from archaeological remains to reconstruct historic baselines for several population parameters in anadromous species with long periods of freshwater residency. The approach outlined in this paper may be particularly useful for research investigating past fisheries dynamics, offering hundreds to thousands of years of temporal depth for modern fisheries management, harvest policies, restoration ecology, and conservation biology.

Idaho, Oregon, Washington

Saltwater intrusion intensifies coastal permafrost thaw

Surface effects of sea-level rise (SLR) in permafrost regions are obvious where increasingly iceless seas erode and inundate coastlines. SLR also drives saltwater intrusion, but subsurface impacts on permafrost-bound coastlines are unseen and unclear due to limited field data and the absence of models that include salinity-dependent groundwater flow with solute exclusion and freeze-thaw dynamics. Here, we develop a numerical model with the aforementioned processes to investigate climate change impacts on coastal permafrost. We find that SLR drives lateral permafrost thaw due to depressed freezing temperatures from saltwater intrusion, whereas warming drives top-down thaw. Under high SLR and low warming scenarios, thaw driven by SLR exceeds warming-driven thaw when normalized to the influenced surface area. Results highlight an overlooked feedback mechanism between SLR and permafrost thaw with potential implications for coastal infrastructure, ocean-aquifer interactions, and carbon mobilization.

Geophysical Research Letters

Ecological forecasting—21st century science for 21st century management

Natural resource managers are coping with rapid changes in both environmental conditions and ecosystems. Enabled by recent advances in data collection and assimilation, short-term ecological forecasting may be a powerful tool to help resource managers anticipate impending near-term changes in ecosystem conditions or dynamics. Managers may use the information in forecasts to minimize the adverse effects of ecological stressors and optimize the effectiveness of management actions. To explore the potential for ecological forecasting to enhance natural resource management, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) convened a workshop titled "Building Capacity for Applied Short-Term Ecological Forecasting" on May 29—31, 2019, with participants from several Federal agencies, including the Bureau of Land Management, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, the National Park Service, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration as well as all mission areas within the USGS. Participants broadly agreed that short-term ecological forecasting—on the order of days to years into the future—has tremendous potential to improve the quality and timeliness of information available to guide resource management decisions. Participants considered how ecological forecasting could directly affect their agency missions and specified numerous critical tools for addressing natural resource management concerns in the 21st century that could be enhanced by ecological forecasting. Given this breadth of possible applications for forecast products, participants developed a repeatable framework for evaluating potential value of a forecast product for enhancing resource management. Applying that process to a large list of forecast ideas that were developed in a brainstorming session, participants identified a small set of promising forecast products that illustrate the value of ecological forecasting for informing resource management. Workshop outcomes also include insights about important likely obstacles and next steps. In particular, reliable production and delivery of operational ecological forecasts will require a sustained commitment by research agencies, in partnership with resource management agencies, to maintain and improve forecasting tools and capabilities.

Open-File Report

Cryptic lives of conspicuous animals: Otolith chemistry chronicles life histories of coastal lagoon fishes

Bar-built coastal lagoons are dynamic ecosystems at the land-sea interface that are important habitats for a variety of species. This study examined the habitat ecology of two lagoon species, the endangered Tidewater Goby ( Eucyclogobius newberryi ) and the Prickly Sculpin ( Cottus asper ) by reconstructing individual life histories from patterns in the concentration of the element Sr (as ratioed to Ca; Sr:Ca) in otoliths. Specific objectives were to (1) elucidate any movements of individual fishes among three primary habitat components of typical bar-built lagoon systems: coastal ocean, brackish lagoon, and freshwater watershed streams, and (2) determine if either species exhibited a consistent life history as defined by a stereotypical otolith Sr:Ca chronology, which could be indicative of a consistent range of salinity or temperature occupied through ontogeny. Results suggested that Tidewater Goby was a lagoon resident and that Prickly Sculpin exhibited migrations between lagoon and watershed stream habitats. There was no strong evidence in either species of ocean occupancy or of a stereotypical Sr:Ca chronology, the latter suggesting the full range of available lagoon habitat in terms of salinity and temperature was likely utilized at all life stages. These findings add to the body of evidence that bar-built lagoons are not isolated habitats, and holistic management of these habitats with adjoining watershed and marine environments could increase habitat connectivity across the landscape, with potential benefits to fishes.

California

Tidal-bundle sequences in the Jordan Sandstone (Upper Cambrian), southeastern Minnesota, U.S.A.: Evidence for tides along inboard shorelines of the Sauk Epicontinental Sea

This study documents for the first time tidal bundling in a lower Paleozoic sheet sandstone from the cratonic interior of North America, providing insights into the hydrodynamics of ancient epicontinental seas. The Jordan Sandstone (Upper Cambrian) in the Upper Mississippi Valley contains large-scale planar tabular cross-sets with tidal-bundle sequences, which were analyzed in detail at an exceptional exposure. Tidal-bundle sequences (neap-spring-neap cycles) were delineated by foreset thickening-thinning patterns and composite shale drapes, the latter of which represent accumulations of mud during the neap tides of neap-spring-neap tidal cycles. Fourier analysis of the bundle thickness data from the 26 measurable bundle sequences revealed cycles ranging from 15 to 34 bundles per sequence, which suggests a semidiurnal or mixed tidal system along this part of the Late Cambrian shoreline. We extend the tidal interpretation to widespread occurrences of the same facies in outcrops of lesser quality, where the facies is recognizable but too few bundles are exposed for tidal cycles to be measured. By doing so, this study shows that tidally generated deposits have a significant geographic and temporal extent in Upper Cambrian strata of central mid-continent North America. The deposition and preservation of tidal facies was related to the intermittent development of shoreline embayments during transgressions. The tidally dominated deposits filled ravined topographies that were repeatedly developed on the updip parts of the shoreface. Resulting coastal geomorphologies, accompanied perhaps by larger-scale changes in basinal conditions and/or configuration, led to changes in depositional conditions from wave-dominated to tide-dominated. Outcrops of the Jordan Sandstone tidal facies in the Upper Mississippi Valley represent the farthest inboard recorded transmission of ocean-generated tides in the Laurentian epicontinental seas, demonstrating that tidal currents were significant agents in the transport of sand along the far cratonic interior shorelines of Cambrian North America. The results of this study improve the facies-level understanding of the genesis of sheet sandstones. Furthermore, tidalites documented here occur in a specific position within a sequence stratigraphic architecture for the Jordan Sandstone. This provides a framework to compare these ancient deposits and processes to younger (e.g., Carboniferous) epicontinental systems where stratal and sediment dynamics are better documented.

Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Miss

Sediment export by ice rafting from a coastal Polynya, Arctic Alaska, U.S.A.

Strong offshore winds in early 1989 produced a shore polynya that reached along the entire north coast of Alaska and eastward beyond the mouth of the Mackenzie River in Canada. From January through April, this open water periodically exposed the shelf to sediment entrainment by suspension freezing. This process requires turbulence and supercooled water, which results in the formation of frazil and anchor ice. The resulting granular, sediment-laden ice was observed to extend over 100 km seaward of the outer continental shelf after having been advected offshore. It was sampled to determine sediment type and to quantify the particle load. The particle size was mainly silt and clay, with local admixtures of as much as 27% sand and coarser clasts. Melted ice samples contained from 31 to nearly 600 mg L -1 of sediment. Combining these data with over 400 km of shipboard and aerial observations, photographs, and computer analysis of a summer Landsat image, we estimated the sediment load per unit area of sea ice. Seaward of the shelf, in regions of dense pack ice, a conservatively estimated sediment load was over 289 t km -2 . Using a westward summer drift rate of 3 cm s -1 , the sediment transport through a 1-km-long north-south segment is 67,418 t during 3 mo. In terms of regional sediment dynamics (littoral transport estimated at 10,000 t during the same period) and sediment budget (continental denudation estimated at 10 t km -2 during the same period), this number is very significant. Benthic microfossils indicate that bottom sediment incorporated in the ice came from water depths ranging from the inner neritic seaward to 50 m. The large load of shelf-derived sediment observed seaward of the continental shelf indicates that ice entrainment and transport cause shelf erosion. Nothing is known about sediment release over the Arctic Ocean Basin from these pulses of dirty ice that are periodically introduced into the Transpolar Drift.

Alaska