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USGS2026

Final project peport for “Mapping riparian vegetation response to climate change on the San Carlos Apache Reservation and Upper Gila River watershed to inform restoration priorities: 1935 to present – Phase 2: Focus on tamarisk vegetation”

Riparian ecosystems play a critical role in supporting wildlife habitats, maintaining water quality, and sustaining ecological resilience in arid landscapes. In the Upper Gila River level-4 Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC-4; Identification Number – 1504) watershed of Arizona and New Mexico, and across areas of the San Carlos Apache Tribe of the San Carlos Apache Reservation (hereafter, Tribe/Tribal – entity; or Reservation - place), riparian ecosystems have been substantially altered by the widespread expansion of tamarisk ( Tamarix spp.), an invasive and non-native riparian species. Tamarisk has high water use and increased flammability, making it a growing concern as droughts intensify across the southwestern United States (U.S.). Recent research indicates that tamarisk is increasingly stressed under prolonged drought conditions, which can elevate wildfire risk and further degrade riparian habitat. In response, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Western Geographic Science Center, in collaboration with the Tribe, developed remote sensing–based tools to map riparian vegetation composition and monitor vegetation condition over time. These tools enable accurate identification of tamarisk extent, detection of vegetation stress, and comparison with native species such as cottonwood and willow. This information directly supports restoration and management actions, including targeted tamarisk removal, protection of endangered species habitat, and prioritization of areas for native vegetation recovery. The tools also provide insight into how riparian vegetation responds to changing climate and hydrologic conditions, strengthening long-term planning for riparian forest management. Findings from this work demonstrate that riparian vegetation responses vary across river systems, indicating differences in plant composition and hydro-climatic conditions. Tamarisk on both the Gila and San Carlos Rivers generally exhibit greater declines in greenness in response to higher temperature as well as lower precipitation and river flow, while cottonwood ( Populus fremontii ) and willow (Salix spp.) are particularly sensitive to changes in discharge along the San Carlos River and respond more directly to both high and low flows, with more moderate responses to precipitation and temperature. By providing actionable, science-based information, this research supports climate adaptation planning, wildfire risk reduction, and improved riparian ecosystem health, with benefits that extend beyond the Reservation to regional water and wildlife conservation efforts.

Arizona, New Mexico↗

USGS2021

Regal fritillary (Speyeria idalia) sex ratio in tallgrass prairie: Effects of survey timing and management regime

The regal fritillary, Speyeria idalia (Drury), was once a common inhabitant of North American grassland communities. Regal fritillary populations are commonly reported to have a male biased adult sex ratio (ASR) throughout their range. We assessed the observed ASR of regal fritillary throughout an annual flight period, investigated how the overall density of both sexes changed, and tested effects of prescribed fire, grazing and haying management treatments on male and female density. We found that regal fritillary exhibited an observed 2:1 male biased ASR across the entire emergence period. Our analysis also revealed that male density peaked earlier than female density in the flight period. Point estimates of density indicated sites that received prescribed burning at the moderate fire-return interval supported ≥1.3 times greater density of males and ≥5.6 times greater density of females versus sites burned with short and long fire-return intervals. Additionally, this effect was enhanced when combined with grazing which showed males were ≥1.9 times and females had ≥1.2 times greater point estimates of density in sites that were grazed and burned at a moderate fire-return interval versus other sites. The relatively stable status of regal fritillary within our study region suggests that a 2:1 male to female ASR may be considered the model composition of populations throughout their range. Likewise, the dynamic nature of the ASR throughout the flight period highlights the importance of conducting surveys across the flight period. Finally, these results corroborate an increasing number of research results that reveal common prairie management practices, such as prescribed fire can be applied within sites that contain regal fritillary and continue to support stable populations.

Kansas↗

USGS2006

Metallogeny of the Great Basin: Crustal evolution, fluid flow, and ore deposits

The Great Basin physiographic province in the Western United States contains a diverse assortment of world-class ore deposits. It currently (2006) is the world’s second leading producer of gold, contains large silver and base metal (Cu, Zn, Pb, Mo, W) deposits, a variety of other important metallic (Fe, Ni, Be, REE’s, Hg, PGE) and industrial mineral (diatomite, barite, perlite, kaolinite, gallium) resources, as well as petroleum and geothermal energy resources. Ore deposits are most numerous and largest in size in linear mineral belts with complex geology. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists are in the final year of a research project initiated in the fall of 2001 to increase understanding of relations between crustal evolution, fluid flow, and ore deposits in the Great Basin. Because of its substantial past and current mineral production, this region has been the focus of numerous investigations over the past century and is the site of ongoing research by industry, academia, and state agencies. A variety of geoinformatic tools was used to organize, reinterpret, and display, in space and time, the large amounts of geologic, geophysical, geochemical, and hydrologic information deemed pertinent to this problem. This information, in combination with concentrated research on (1) critical aspects of the geologic history, (2) an area in northern Nevada that encompasses the major mineral belts, and (3) important mining districts and deposits, is producing new insights about the interplay between key tectonic events, hydrothermal fluid flow, and ore genesis in mineral belts. The results suggest that the Archean to Holocene history of the Great Basin was punctuated by several tectonic events that caused fluids of different origins (sea water, basinal brine, meteoric water, metamorphic water, magmatic water) to move through the crust. Basement faults reactivated during these events localized deformation, sedimentation, magmatism, and hydrothermal fluid flow in overlying rocks to form mineral belts that contain ore deposits of different types and ages that are locally superimposed (demonstrating inheritance). Fluid flow in these systems also was influenced by the distribution of permeable lithologies and paleotopographic highs and lows. Hydrothermal fluids evolved from their initial chemistries towards compositions that reflect the ƒ O 2 and ƒ S 2 buffering capacity of, and the ligands and metals present in, the rocks (±older mineralization) through which they moved. In northern Nevada, where gold deposits are relatively common, carbonaceous, pyritic strata buffered fluids of diverse origins to H 2 S-rich compositions so they could transport gold repeatedly over Paleozoic-Cenozoic time (convergent evolution). Ore formed where metal-laden fluids encountered effective physicochemical traps. Maps of Neogene basin fill and erosion surfaces identify areas where preexisting ore deposits have been progressively exposed or concealed. Comparisons with analogous terrains and deposit types in other parts of the world provide global context. The initial findings and some of the databases, geologic maps, sections, reconstructions, hydrogeologic models, topical syntheses, regional overviews, short courses, field guides, and deposit comparisons produced by project staff and associated managers, contractors, and collaborators have been presented in numerous abstracts, symposia, USGS publications, and professional journals over the last 5 years (see the extensive bibliography). Notable among these was the 2005 Geological Society of Nevada symposium in Reno, Nevada, and the 2005 Geological Society of America annual meeting in Salt Lake City, Utah, where project results were presented to audiences from around the nation and world. The final results of the project will be submitted for publication in 2007 to appropriate USGS and professional journals. A special issue of GEOSPHERE, scheduled for publication in 2007, will be devoted to the results of this project and related work. This special issue will reach an international audience and be available worldwide on the internet. Much of the research for this project has concentrated on areas that will receive the focused attention of the mining industry in the future. As such, the data and interpretations generated by this project have direct use for land-use managers in Federal, State, and local agencies. Improved hydrogeologic models developed by this project will considerably enhance ongoing and future water resource investigations in the region. The increased understanding of when, where, and how hydrothermal systems produce significant economic deposits has direct uses for mineral exploration and for future USGS mineral resource assessments in the Great Basin and other parts of the world.

Great Basin↗

USGS2017

Water quality and bed sediment quality in the Albemarle Sound, North Carolina, 2012–14

The Albemarle Sound region was selected in 2012 as one of two demonstration sites in the Nation to test and improve the design of the National Water Quality Monitoring Council’s National Monitoring Network (NMN) for U.S. Coastal Waters and Tributaries. The goal of the NMN for U.S. Coastal Waters and Tributaries is to provide information about the health of our oceans, coastal ecosystems, and inland influences on coastal waters for improved resource management. The NMN is an integrated, multidisciplinary, and multi-organizational program using multiple sources of data and information to augment current monitoring programs. This report presents and summarizes selected water-quality and bed sediment-quality data collected as part of the demonstration project conducted in two phases. The first phase was an occurrence and distribution study to assess nutrients, metals, pesticides, cyanotoxins, and phytoplankton communities in the Albemarle Sound during the summer of 2012 at 34 sites in Albemarle Sound, nearby sounds, and various tributaries. The second phase consisted of monthly sampling over a year (March 2013 through February 2014) to assess seasonality in a more limited set of constituents including nutrients, cyanotoxins, and phytoplankton communities at a subset (eight) of the sites sampled in the first phase. During the summer of 2012, few constituent concentrations exceeded published water-quality thresholds; however, elevated levels of chlorophyll a and pH were observed in the northern embayments and in Currituck Sound. Chlorophyll a , and metals (copper, iron, and zinc) were detected above a water-quality threshold. The World Health Organization provisional guideline based on cyanobacterial density for high recreational risk was exceeded in approximately 50 percent of water samples collected during the summer of 2012. Cyanobacteria capable of producing toxins were present, but only low levels of cyanotoxins below human health benchmarks were detected. Finally, 12 metals in surficial bed sediments were detected at levels above a published sediment-quality threshold. These metals included chromium, mercury, copper, lead, arsenic, nickel, and cadmium. Sites with several metal concentrations above the respective thresholds had relatively high concentrations of organic carbon or fine sediment (silt plus clay), or both and were predominantly located in the western and northwestern parts of the Albemarle Sound. Results from the second phase were generally similar to those of the first in that relatively few constituents exceeded a water-quality threshold, both pH and chlorophyll a were detected above the respective water-quality thresholds, and many of these elevated concentrations occurred in the northern embayments and in Currituck Sound. In contrast to the results from phase one, the cyanotoxin, microcystin was detected at more than 10 times the water-quality threshold during a phytoplankton bloom on the Chowan River at Mount Gould, North Carolina in August of 2013. This was the only cyanotoxin concentration measured during the entire study that exceeded a respective water-quality threshold. The information presented in this report can be used to improve understanding of water-quality conditions in the Albemarle Sound, particularly when evaluating causal and response variables that are indicators of eutrophication. In particular, this information can be used by State agencies to help develop water-quality criteria for nutrients, and to understand factors like cyanotoxins that may affect fisheries and recreation in the Albemarle Sound region.

North Carolina, Virginia↗

USGS2022

Understanding impacts of sea-level rise and land management on critical coastal marsh habitat

Coastal wetlands in the Louisiana Mississippi River Deltaic Plain (MRDP) experience some of the highest rates of relative sea-level rise (SLR) in the world, leading to elevated surface water salinity and prolonged flooding. Elevated salinity causes a shift toward more salt-tolerant vegetation communities, associated with changes in ecosystem function and services. As sea level continues to rise, even salt-tolerant plant communities succumb to impacts of excessive flooding through submergence and conversion to open water. To better characterize the impacts of SLR on coastal wetland health and sustainability, we focused on two key landscape transitions in this project: 1) freshwater marsh transition to saltwater marsh, and 2) saltwater marsh transition to open water. We investigated these transitions using data with greater spatial and temporal resolution than previous studies in this region, allowing us to identify the mechanisms underlying widely observed landscape changes.

Louisiana↗

USGS2013

Greater Sage-Grouse National Research Strategy

The condition of the sagebrush ecosystem has been declining in the Western United States, and greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus), a sagebrush-obligate species, has experienced concurrent decreases in distribution and population numbers. This has prompted substantial research and management over the past two decades to improve the understanding of sage-grouse and its habitats and to address the observed decreases in distribution and population numbers. The amount of research and management has increased as the year 2015 approaches, which is when the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) is expected to make a final decision about whether or not to protect the species under the Endangered Species Act. In 2012, the Sage-Grouse Executive Oversight Committee (EOC) of the Western Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies (WAFWA) requested that the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) lead the development of a Greater Sage-Grouse National Research Strategy (hereafter Research Strategy). This request was motivated by a practical need to systematically connect existing research and conservation plans with persisting or emerging information needs. Managers and researchers also wanted to reduce redundancy and help focus limited funds on the highest priority research and management issues. The USGS undertook the development of this Research Strategy, which addresses information and science relating to the greater sage-grouse and its habitat across portions of 11 Western States. This Research Strategy provides an outline of important research topics to ensure that science information gaps are identified and documented in a comprehensive manner. Further, by identifying priority topics and critical information needed for planning, research, and resource management, it provides a structure to help coordinate members of an expansive research and management community in their efforts to conduct priority research.

California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Nort↗

USGS2014

Snake River fall Chinook salmon life history investigations, 1/1/2012 - 12/31/2012: Annual report 2002-032-00

Executive Summary a. Fish Population RM&E This annual report describes the data collected and analyses conducted during calendar years 2012-2013 by staff of project 20023200. The USGS contributed only to the predation research and reservoir invertebrate work described in this report and the presentation of their results is consistent with USGS policy guidelines. The USGS is not responsible for the content provided by other contributing authors. Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. The main goal of this project is to better understand juvenile Snake River fall Chinook salmon life history diversity and the factors that influence it. This is called for in RPA 55.4 “Investigate key characteristics of Snake River fall Chinook salmon early life history.” We 3 investigated the importance of estuary entry and rearing to various Snake River fall Chinook salmon life histories. Otoliths were used to examine differences in estuary use between subyearlings and yearlings, and to determine natal habitats, rearing habitats, and overwintering habitat for returning adults. Estuary growth was best explained by estuary residence time and natal location. b. Predation and Invasive Species Management RM&E We investigated the extent of smallmouth bass predation on juvenile fall Chinook salmon in Lower Granite Reservoir as called for in the Fish and Wildlife Program, “The federal action agencies should work cooperatively with NOAA Fisheries, states, tribes, and the Council to review, evaluate, develop, and implement strategies to reduce non-native piscivorous predation on salmon and steelhead, especially by smallmouth bass, channel catfish, and walleye” (Page 52). Smallmouth bass stomach contents were collected and analyzed for the presence of juvenile salmon. Smallmouth bass abundance was estimated with mark-recapture techniques, and salmon consumption by bass was expanded based on bass abundance to determine the annual loss of juvenile fall Chinook salmon for the study period and area. The estimated loss of juvenile fall Chinook salmon to predation in Lower Granite Reservoir exceeded 109,000 fish in 2012. This information could be used to adaptively formulate better hatchery release strategies to reduce the effects of predation. Obtaining better estimates of smallmouth bass abundance and distribution in future years would reduce the uncertainty of estimates. This study will be completed by 2017. We also examined the effects of various field temperature scenarios resulting from summer flow augmentation on juvenile fall Chinook salmon susceptibility to smallmouth bass predation in laboratory trials. Predation susceptibility of juvenile salmon acclimated at cool temperatures (10°C) was highest when exposed to predators at 24°C. These results indicate that predation susceptibility may be higher when a relatively large temperature difference exists between the Clearwater and Snake rivers; that is, when cool water flow augmentation occurs in summer. Finally, we examined the role of different invasive invertebrates in lower Snake River reservoir food webs that are food, or competitors for food, for juvenile fall Chinook salmon. The Siberian prawn, a relatively new invader, is relatively abundant but its role on the food web is largely unexplored. Prawns are successfully reproducing and their diet is 81% Neomysis (an invasive opossum shrimp) which is heavily used at times by juvenile salmon for food. Neomysis has become very abundant in lower Snake River reservoirs in recent years and may be a profitable food item for many fish species.

Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2020

Final project memorandum: Southeast Climate Adaptation Science Center Project

Low-lying public lands along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast are vulnerable to sea-level rise. Coastal planners and resource managers in the region have requested customized information that can be used to concisely communicate local sea-level rise scenarios and identify potential impacts to the missions of management agencies. In this project, researchers worked with the Northern Gulf of Mexico Sentinel Site Cooperative to develop information sheets outlining potential sea-level rise scenarios for the region through 2100 including their potential impact on the missions of federally-managed lands. Researchers drew from existing information on regional and global sea-level rise scenarios to develop customized information sheets for 54 federally-managed lands in the region (e.g., National Wildlife Refuges, National Park Service lands, National Estuarine Research Reserves) (Chivoiu et al. 2020). This project was developed in response to a request for customized sea-level rise scenario products from partners at the Northern Gulf of Mexico Sentinel Site Cooperative and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s Gulf Restoration Program. The results of this project support the conservation stewardship missions of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and National Park Service by providing science to inform management of their lands along the Gulf of Mexico.

Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas↗

USGS2024

Post-wildfire curve number estimates for the southern Rocky Mountains in Colorado, USA

The curve number method first developed by the US Department of Agriculture Soil Conservation Service (now the Natural Resources Conservation Service) is often used for post-wildfire runoff assessments. These assessments are critical for land and emergency managers making decisions on life and property risks following a wildfire event. Three approaches (i.e., historical event observations, linear regression model, and regression tree model) were used to help estimate a post-wildfire curve number from watershed and wildfire parameters. For the first method, we used runoff events from 102 burned watersheds in Colorado, southern Wyoming, northern New Mexico, and eastern Utah to quantify changes in curve number values from pre- to post-wildfire conditions. The curve number changes from the measured runoff events vary substantially between positive and negative values. The measured curve number changes were then associated with watershed characteristics (e.g., slope, elevation, northness, and eastness) and land cover type to develop prediction models that provide estimates of post-wildfire curve number changes. Finally, we used a regression tree method to demonstrate that accurate predications can be developed using the measured curve number changes from our study domain. These models can be used for future post-wildfire assessments within the region.

Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming↗

USGS2005

Wildlife and habitat damage assessment from Hurricane Charley: recommendations for recovery of the J. N. "Ding" Darling National Wildlife Refuge Complex. [Final report to U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service]

On 13 August 2004, the first of four hurricanes to strike Florida in <6 weeks came ashore near J. N. ?Ding? Darling National Wildlife Refuge (JNDDNWR) Complex, Sanibel Island, FL. Hurricane Charley passed just north of Sanibel Island with maximum sustained winds of 145 mph (123 knots) and a storm surge of 0.3-2.7 m. We surveyed storm damage to JNDDNWR Complex from 20-24 September 2004. Our goals were to assess damage to: wetlands for Mangrove Cuckoos (Coccyzus minor) and Black-whiskered Vireo (Vireo altiloquus), waterbird rookeries/mangrove islands, impoundments, sea grass beds, and hardwood hammocks. The refuge complex sustained moderate to catastrophic damage to vegetation, especially mangrove forests and waterbird nesting or roosting islands. Lumpkin Island, Hemp Island, and Bird Key waterbird nesting areas had >50% and sometimes 90% of their vegetation severely damaged (dead, broken tree stems, and tipped trees). Shell Mound Trail of JNDDNWR sustained catastrophic damage to its old growth mangrove forests. Direct storm mortality and injury to manatees in the area was probably slight. Because seagrass beads and manatee habitat extend beyond refuge boundaries, we recommended a regional approach with partner agencies to more thoroughly assess storm impacts and monitor recovery of seagrass and manatees. Besides intensive monitoring of waterbirds and their nesting habitat (pre- and post-storm), we recommend that the Mangrove Cuckoo be used as an indicator species for recovery of mangrove forests and also for monitoring songbirds at risk. Black-whiskered Vireo may be another potential indicator species to monitor in mangrove forests. Damaged vegetation should be monitored for recovery (permanent or long-term plots), especially where previous study plots have been established and with additional plots in mangrove forests of waterbird nesting islands and freshwater wetlands. Potential loss of wetlands may be prevented by water level monitoring, locating the positions (GPS-GIS) and maintaining existing water control structures, creating a GIS map of refuge with accurate vertical data, and monitoring and eradicating invasive plants. Invasive species, including Brazilian pepper (Schinus terebinthifolius) and air potato (Dioscorea bulbifora), were common in a very limited survey. As an important monitoring goal, we recommend that species presence-absence data analysis (with probability of detection) be used to determine changes in animal communities. This could be accomplished possibly with comparison to other storm-damaged and undamaged refuges in the Region. This information may be helpful to refuge managers when storms return in the future.

Book↗

USGS2018

Spatial distribution of band recoveries of black brant

On average, band recovery rates of adult black brant ( Branta bernicla nigricans ) more than doubled between the 2000s and 2010s. However, the spatial distribution of band recoveries of black brant has not been reported. Our objective was to describe the spatial distribution of band recoveries of black brant since 1990. We found that Alaska, California, and Mexico accounted for ≥89% of band recoveries for black brant released from the Arctic and the Tutakoke River Colony in southwestern Alaska, in each decade studied. Although recovery rates increased in each major harvest region from the 1990s to 2010s, increases were not even. For brant released from the Arctic, the recovery rate in Alaska has gone up 7‐fold, whereas the recovery rate in Mexico has increased 1.3‐fold since the 1990s. For brant banded in the Arctic, the increased recovery rates in Alaska resulted largely from a rise in recoveries from the Izembek Lagoon area. For brant banded at the Tutakoke River Colony, the recovery rate in Alaska increased 4.8‐fold, whereas recovery rates in Mexico increased 1.6‐fold. Despite the reduced relative contribution of Mexico to band recoveries in the 2010s, Bahia San Quintin, Mexico, still contributes more recoveries than any other wintering estuary. Because 57–60% of black brant band recoveries occur at the localities of Izembek Lagoon, Alaska; Humboldt Bay, California; and Bahia San Quintin, it is likely that accurate annual estimates of the black brant population using Lincoln's method could be derived from hunter bag checks at these 3 areas. If population managers are interested in managing harvest rates of black brant, they could focus efforts on the main hunting areas we highlight in this paper. Finally, it is unclear if the recent increases in band recovery rates are the result of increased harvest, a declining population, or both; therefore, we suggest refinement of population monitoring programs and continued monitoring of band recovery rates.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2025

Bison population dynamics, harvest, and human conflict potential under feedground management alternatives at the National Elk Refuge in Jackson, Wyoming

Bison bison were once abundant across North America but declined due to overharvesting in the late 1800s. The reintroduced population in and around Jackson, Wyoming has averaged 485 individuals between 2018–2023 and is the subject of a planning process to inform management strategies that will guide the U.S. Fish and Wildlife’s next “Bison and Elk Management Plan” for the National Elk Refuge. This small population may benefit from historical winter-feeding operations on the National Elk Refuge because those operations may increase overwinter survival and limit human-bison conflicts, which are the number of individual bison that engage in nuisance, damaging, or otherwise aggressive behaviors with humans and livestock, that may lead to culling and other sources of mortality (for example, vehicle collisions). To inform the next “Bison and Elk Management Plan,” the U.S. Geological Survey used a population model to evaluate five management alternatives for bison and Cervus elaphus canadensis feedground operations that included continuing the elk and bison feeding program, immediately stopping the feeding program, and three other alternatives that would phase out the feeding program after a period of time. The results indicate that the bison population would be expected to decline over the next 20 years under all alternatives that stop feeding bison on the refuge. Further, this decline would lead to an associated reduction in bison harvest opportunities for resident, nonresident, and Tribal hunters. Finally, human-bison conflicts would also be expected to increase under the no feeding alternatives because bison may venture onto private lands in greater numbers if feed is not provisioned during winter months. In combination, these results suggest that feeding may lead to better outcomes for bison over the next 20 years; however, these effects may be traded off against other downsides of the feedground program, such as increased rates of animal-to-animal contact on feedgrounds that can lead to disease transmission.

Wyoming↗

USGS1993

Proceedings of the fourth conference on research in California's National Parks

The papers in this proceedings were selected from the 63 presentations given at the Fourth Biennial Conference on Research in National Parks in California. The overall theme for this meeting was a recurring one: “The Integration of Research into National Park Service Resource Management Decisions.” The conference was held at the University of California, Davis, on 10-12 September 1991 and was sponsored by the National Park Service Cooperative Park Studies Unit and the Institute of Ecology at the University of California, Davis. This proceedings highlights a variety of research and resource management efforts to improve the stewardship of our most treasured landscapes. In the future, it will become increasingly more important for federal and state agencies, university scientists and students, and the public to cooperate fully to improve the quantity and quality of science and resource management programs in units of the National Park System. As many of the papers in this proceedings attest, we must look beyond the political boundaries of protected landscapes to incorporate entire ecosystems. Competing resource uses inside and outside parklands must be reexamined to weave a common thread of biological conservation. As scientists, our studies must bridge the gap from plots to landscapes and from landscapes to regions. Our studies must built on information from species and populations to ecosystems and the processes that influence them. The papers in this proceedings are modest but important contribution to those ideals. Each paper represents original research and has been peer-reviewed. Many agencies, institutions, and individuals contributed in the development of this product. In the planning stages, National Park Service Western Region scientists provided advice and assistance in structuring the conference format. University of California, Davis, graduate students, directed by Sharon Lynch, assisted with logistics at the meeting, and provided general assistance with the paper sessions. We thank the students, technicians, and support staff who labored unselfishly behind the scenes to collect data and transfer information important to the completion of each paper. Financial support for this publication was provided with funds from the Western Region Resource Management and Resource Program and the Washington Office Servicewide Publications Program of the National Park Service. We thank Denny Fenn, Stan Albright, Bruce Kilgore, Dave Cherry, Gene Hester, and Donna O'Leary of the National Park Service and Charles Goldman of the University of California, Davis, Institute of Ecology for their support throughout the development of the proceedings. Finally, we are entering into a new age of research in the U.S. Department of the Interior. Recently, plans were announced for the creation of the National Biological Survey, dedicated to improving the quantity and quality of research necessary for the wise stewardship of our natural resources and wildlands. We welcome our new partners and pledge our full support to both the new and old agencies. The papers presented here--and past research efforts in national parks--provide an important stepping stone to the future. While many of us will be transferred administratively to the National Biological Survey, our emotional ties to the National Park Service mission of preserving resources for future generations will remain with us forever.

California↗

USGS2025

Estimating daily public supply water use by drinking water service area in New Jersey

This report, prepared in cooperation with the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection, presents a method for estimating daily public supply water use by drinking water service area systems for New Jersey. The ability to accurately estimate daily public supply water use could help water supply planners in New Jersey better understand and manage the state’s limited water resources and balance the competing needs for freshwater resources. Data sources for this work include daily public supply water-use data from 2016 through 2020 acquired from New Jersey American Water for 15 drinking water service areas and monthly data exported from the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection’s online water transfer data model database (known as NJWaTr). The two datasets were compared by aggregating the daily data to a monthly timescale. Statistical regression analysis was applied to the daily data, along with climate data, to evaluate what factors are influential in estimating daily fluctuations and trends in daily public supply water use. Fifteen regression equations were developed, one for each of the 15 drinking water service area systems for which daily data were acquired. Regression equations for systems that had seasonal patterns performed better than equations for non-seasonal systems. For the test year (2020), the average adjusted coefficient of determination for the linear regression with autoregressive errors model among systems with seasonality was 0.78; the average adjusted coefficient of determination for the linear regression with autoregressive errors model among systems with little or no seasonality was 0.25. The effects of anomalous data in the regression analysis were examined by comparing adjusted coefficient of determination values when the atypical data points were removed versus when they were retained in the analysis. Overall, including the anomalous data did not have a large effect on the results, and thus the data were retained for this study. In addition to developing regression equations, all 589 unique drinking water service area systems in New Jersey were characterized based on socio-economic data and monthly water-use data from NJWaTr. Systems that are located near the New Jersey coast, serve populations larger than 1,970 people, or serve areas that have median property values over $256,250 tended to demonstrate seasonal water-use behaviors. Systems that have mostly urban residential land use tended to show little to no seasonal water-use behaviors. Finally, a method was developed to disaggregate monthly data to a daily timescale and was tested against systems for which daily data were not available. Two regression equation forms were developed to be applied to systems beyond the 15 systems from which the original equations were developed; one equation was developed for use when all drinking water service area systems showed little to no seasonality, and the other equation was developed for use when systems displayed seasonal behavior. To the extent possible, uncertainty and possible sources of error were identified and examined in relation to the regression model equations developed. Additional daily data from these 15 systems (over different years) and daily data from different systems could be used to further evaluate the results of the disaggregation through a comprehensive assessment of error. Further adjustments to the regression equations could be made, ultimately enhancing their accuracy.

New Jersey↗

USGS2025

Bison population dynamics, harvest, and conflict potential under feedground management alternatives at the National Elk Refuge in Jackson, Wyoming

Bison bison (bison) were once abundant across North America but declined due to overharvesting in the late 1800s. The reintroduced population in and around Jackson, Wyoming has averaged 485 individuals between 2018–2023 and is the subject of a planning process to inform management strategies that will guide the U.S. Fish and Wildlife’s next “Bison and Elk Management Plan” for the National Elk Refuge. This small population may benefit from historical winter-feeding operations on the National Elk Refuge because those operations may increase overwinter survival and limit human-bison conflicts, which are the number of individual bison that engage in nuisance, damaging, or otherwise aggressive behaviors with humans and livestock, that may lead to culling and other sources of mortality (for example, vehicle collisions). To inform the next “Bison and Elk Management Plan,” the U.S. Geological Survey used a population model to evaluate five management alternatives for bison and Cervus elaphus canadensis (elk) feedground operations that included continuing the elk and bison feeding program, immediately stopping the feeding program, and three other alternatives that would phase out the feeding program after a period of time. The results indicate that the bison population would be expected to decline over the next 20 years under all alternatives that stop feeding bison on the refuge. Further, this decline would lead to an associated reduction in bison harvest opportunities for resident, nonresident, and Tribal hunters. Finally, human-bison conflicts would also be expected to increase under the no feeding alternatives because bison may venture onto private lands in greater numbers if feed is not provisioned during winter months. In combination, these effects suggest that feeding may lead to better outcomes for bison over the next 20 years; however, these effects may be traded off against other downsides of the feedground program, such as increased rates of animal-to-animal contact on feedgrounds that can lead to disease transmission.

Wyoming↗

USGS2015

Resilience and risk: a demographic model to inform conservation planning for polar bears

Climate change is having widespread ecological effects, including loss of Arctic sea ice. This has led to listing of the polar bear ( Ursus maritimus ) and other ice-dependent marine mammals under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA). Methods are needed to evaluate the effects of climate change on population persistence to inform recovery planning for listed species. For polar bears, this includes understanding interactions between climate and secondary factors, such as subsistence harvest, which provide economic, nutritional, or cultural value to humans. We developed a matrix-based demographic model for polar bears that can be used for population viability analysis and to evaluate the effects of human-caused removals. This model includes density-dependence (the potential for a declining environmental carrying capacity), density-independent limitation, and sex- and age-specific harvest vulnerabilities. We estimated values of adult female survival (0.93–0.96), recruitment (number of yearling cubs per adult female; 0.1–0.3), and carrying capacity (>250 animals) that must be maintained for a hypothetical population to achieve a 90-percent probability of persistence over 100 years. We also developed a state-dependent management framework, based on harvest theory and the potential biological removal method, by linking the demographic model to simulated population assessments. This framework can be used to estimate the maximum sustainable rate of human-caused removals, including subsistence harvest, which maintains a population at its maximum net productivity level. The framework also can be used to calculate a recommended sustainable harvest rate, which generally is lower than the maximum sustainable rate and depends on management objectives, the precision and frequency of population data, and risk tolerance. The historical standard 4.5-percent harvest rate for polar bears, at a 2:1 male-to-female ratio, is reasonable under many biological and management conditions, although lower or higher rates may be appropriate in some cases. Our modeling results suggest that harvest of polar bears is unlikely to accelerate population declines that result from declining carrying capacity caused by sea-ice loss, provided that several conditions are met: (1) the sustainable harvest rate reflects the population’s intrinsic growth rate, and the corresponding harvest level is obtained by applying this rate to an estimate of population size; (2) the sustainable harvest rate reflects the quality of population data (e.g., lower harvest when data are poor); and (3) the level of human-caused removals can be adjusted. Finally, our results suggest that stopgap measures (e.g., further reduction or cessation of harvest when the population size is less than a critical threshold) may be necessary to minimize the incremental risk associated with harvest, if environmental conditions are deteriorating rapidly. We suggest that the demographic model and approaches presented here can serve as a template for conservation planning for polar bears and other species facing similar challenges.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2011

Science Goals of the U.S. Department of the Interior Southeast Climate Science Center

In 2011, the U.S. Department of the Interior Southeast Climate Science Center (CSC) finalized the first draft of its goals for research needed to address the needs of natural and cultural partners for climate science in the Southeastern United States. The science themes described in this draft plan were established to address the information needs of ecoregion conservation partnerships, such as the Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) and other regional conservation-science and resource-management partners. These themes were developed using priorities defined by partners and stakeholders in the Southeast and on a large-scale, multidisciplinary project-the Southeast Regional Assessment Project (SERAP)-developed in concert with those partners. Science products developed under these themes will provide models of potential future conditions, assessments of likely impacts, and tools that can be used to inform the conservation management decisions of LCCs and other partners. This information will be critical as managers try to anticipate and adapt to climate change. Resource managers in the Southeast are requesting this type of information, in many cases as a result of observed climate change effects. The Southeast CSC draft science plan identifies six science themes and frames the activities (tasks, with examples of recommended near-term work for each task included herein) related to each theme that are needed to achieve the objectives of the Southeast CSC.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2020

How and why is the timing and occurrence of seasonal migrants in the Gulf of Maine changing due to climate?

Plants and animals undergo certain recurring life-cycle events, such as migrations between summer and winter habitats or the annual blooming of plants. Known as phenology, the timing of these events is very sensitive to changes in climate (and changes in one species’ phenology can impact entire food webs and ecosystems). Shifts in phenology have been described as a “fingerprint” of the temporal and spatial responses of wildlife to climate change impacts. Thus, phenology provides one of the strongest indicators of the adaptive capacity of organisms (or the ability of organisms to cope with future environmental conditions). In this study, researchers are exploring how the timing and occurrence of a number of highly migratory marine animals is changing due to a series of climatic and ecological shifts. First, using existing long-term historical data series, they will determine the direction and magnitude of how migration, abundance, or other phenological factors have changed for marine mammals, sea turtles, and fishes that migrate into the Gulf of Maine on a seasonal basis. Because marine animals are inherently difficult to detect, the team will apply dynamic occupancy models to evaluate seasonal migration patterns and habitat use across multiple habitats in the Gulf of Maine region. The project team will also synthesize regional information on a key, ecologically-important prey fish, sandlance, whose timing and abundance is a strong predictor of the occurrence and behavior of predator species targeted in this study as well as a range of other regional fish and wildlife of conservation and management concern. Results from this component of the project will identify coastal fish and wildlife species that are relatively more or less able to adapt and thus potentially vulnerable to climate change; determine the likely primary drivers of those changes; and identify data gaps and future monitoring needs. Ultimately, this information will be available and useful for regional coastal management and adaptation decisions that will allow managers to effectively plan for the future. In a second component of the project, researchers will focus specifically on changes in migration patterns of the endangered North Atlantic right whale. While shifts in the distribution and time of recurring life events are adaptive responses that may help species cope with climate impacts, they can also lead to changes in how species interact with humans. The North Atlantic right whale is one of the most endangered whale species on the planet. In the North Atlantic Ocean, ship strikes and entanglements with commercial fishing gear represent fatal threats to right whales. Recent reports suggest that North Atlantic right whale migration patterns have changed. Many researchers posit that shifts in migration are responsible for recent increases in the overlap between right whales and human activities, especially fishing. To help understand how changes in right whale movements and behaviors may overlap with ship traffic, and thus put the animals at risk of encountering vessels, we will combine right whale habitat models with ship traffic maps. The end result will be a set of maps identifying risk levels.

Gulf of Maine↗