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Sociocultural and institutional drivers and constraints to mineral supply; the meaning of scarcity in the 21st century: drivers and constraints to the supply of minerals using regional, national and global perspectives

The sociocultural dimensions of mineral supply at the outset of the 21st century are making the supply process increasingly complex. The dimensions encompass legal, financial, environmental, cultural, and global implications of mining, and are driving unprecedented change in the way minerals supply will be accomplished in the future. Minerals scarcity on a global scale is subordinate to other societal issues about mineral resources and reserves estimated to meet society's demands for decades to centuries in the future. This report reviews historical and present-day sociocultural drivers of change, and reactions of the minerals industry to these drivers. It is reflective primarily of conditions in the United States, but also uses examples from other countries. It expresses viewpoints on sociocultural drivers as seen by constituents of the minerals industry and several other communities of interest including Aboriginal peoples, non-government organizations; labor; mining-dependent communities; mining-affected communities; researchers; and government (federal, state/provincial, and local). It provides overviews of the demand for minerals in the United States, and the status of land available for mining. The report uses a case study of a metals mining project in Wisconsin to illustrate specific sociocultural drivers and constraints to minerals supply, and how these influence the minerals industry. Over the past 150 years, a progression of sociocultural movements under the headings of conservationism, environmentalism, and sustainable development have nurtured societal values that have come to influence the mineral supply process in important ways. These movements reflect a continuing tension between the demand for minerals and other resources, and the simultaneous demand for aesthetic, spiritual, ecological, cultural, and other attributes of the land. The tension is an important element in current international debates about the meaning and future of sustainable development. This report focuses on some of the social challenges to the minerals industry to supply minerals, while at the same time providing environmental protection, economic growth, and sociocultural acceptance. All these issues fall under the rubric of sustainable development. It also describes current industry responses to sustainability, including the Global Mining Initiative (2001a), an attempt to introduce major changes in global industry practices to begin the 21st century. This report complements other documents in the series on physical supply, technological advancement, and economic and policy drivers (Wilburn and others, 2001).

Open-File Report↗

Do contrasting patterns of migration movements and disease outbreaks between congeneric waterfowl species reflect differing immunity?

Long-distance migrations influence the dynamics of hostpathogen interactions and understanding the role of migratory waterfowl in the spread of the highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses (HPAIV) is important. While wild geese have been associated with outbreak events, disease ecology of closely related species has not been studied to the same extent. The swan goose ( Anser cygnoides ) and the bar-headed goose ( Anser indicus ) are congeneric species with distinctly different HPAIV infection records; the former with few and the latter with numerous records. We compared movements of these species, as well as the more distantly related whooper swan ( Cygnus cygnus ) through their annual migratory cycle to better understand exposure to HPAIV events and how this compares within and between congeneric and noncongeneric species. In spite of their record of fewer infections, swan geese were more likely to come in contact with disease outbreaks than bar-headed geese. We propose two possible explanations: i) frequent prolonged contact with domestic ducks increases innate immunity in swan geese, and/or ii) the stress of high-elevation migration reduces immunity of bar-headed geese. Continued efforts to improve our understanding of species-level pathogen response is critical to assessing disease transmission risk.

Geospatial Health↗

Postfledging survival of Grasshopper Sparrows in grasslands managed with fire and grazing

More accurate estimates of survival after nestlings fledge are needed for population models to be parameterized and population dynamics to be understood during this vulnerable life stage. The period after fledging is the time when chicks learn to fly, forage, and hide from predators. We monitored postfledging survival, causespecific mortality, and movements of Grasshopper Sparrows ( Ammodramus savannarum ) in grassland managed with fire and grazing. In 2009, we attached radio transmitters to 50 nestlings from 50 different broods and modeled their survival in response to climatic, biological, and ecological variables. There was no effect of treatment on survival. The factor most influencing postfledging survival was age; no other variable was significant. The majority of chicks (74%) died within 3 days of radio-transmitter attachment. We attributed most mortality to mesopredators (48%) and exposure (28%). Fledglings' movements increased rapidly for the first 4 days after they left the nest and were relatively stable for the remaining 10 days we tracked them. On average, fledglings took flight for the first time 4 days after fledging and flew ≥10 m 9 days after fledging. Our data show that the Grasshopper Sparrow's survival rates may be less than most models relying on nest-success estimates predict, and we emphasize the importance of incorporating estimates of survival during the postfledging period in demographic models.

Iowa↗

Cougar space use and movements in the wildland-urban landscape of western Washington

The wildland-urban interface lies at the confluence of human-dominated and wild landscapes, creating a number of management and conservation challenges. Because wildlife ecology, behavior, and evolution at this interface are shaped by both natural and human phenomena, this requires greater understanding of how diverse factors affect ecosystem and population processes. We illustrate the challenge of understanding and managing a frequent and often undesired inhabitant of the wildland-urban landscape, the cougar (Puma concolor). In wildland and residential areas of western Washington State, USA, we captured and radiotracked 27 cougars to model space use and understand the role of landscape features in interactions (sightings, encounters, and depredations) between cougars and humans. Resource utilization functions (RUFs) identified cougar use of areas with features that were probably attractive to prey, influential on prey vulnerability, and associated with limited or no residential development. Early-successional forest (+), conifer forest (+), distance to road (-), residential density (-), and elevation (-) were significant positive and negative predictors of use for the population, whereas use of other landscape features was highly variable. Space use and movement rates in wildland and residential areas were similar because cougars used wildland-like forest patches, reserves, and corridors in residential portions of their home range. The population RUF was a good predictor of confirmed cougar interactions, with 72% of confirmed reports occurring in the 50% of the landscape predicted to be medium-high and high cougar use areas. We believe that there is a threshold residential density at which the level of development modifies the habitat but maintains enough wildland characteristics to encourage moderate levels of cougar use and maximize the probability of interaction. Wildlife managers trying to reduce interactions between cougars and people should incorporate information on spatial ecology and landscape characteristics to identify areas with the highest overlap of human and cougar use to focus management, education, and landscape planning. Resource utilization functions provide a proactive tool to guide these activities for improved coexistence with wildlife using both wildland and residential portions of the landscape. ??2011 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecological Applications↗

Three-dimensional foraging habitat use and niche partitioning in two sympatric seabird species, Phalacrocorax auritus and P. penicillatus

Ecological theory predicts that co-existing, morphologically similar species will partition prey resources when faced with resource limitations. We investigated local movements, foraging dive behavior, and foraging habitat selection by breeding adults of 2 closely related cormorant species, double-crested cormorants Phalacrocorax auritus and Brandt’s cormorants P. penicillatus . These species nest sympatrically at East Sand Island in the Columbia River estuary at the border of Oregon and Washington states, USA. Breeding individuals of each species were tracked using GPS tags with integrated temperature and depth data-loggers. The overall foraging areas and core foraging areas (defined as the 95% and 50% kernel density estimates of dive locations, respectively) of double-crested cormorants were much larger and covered a broader range of riverine, mixed-estuarine, and nearshore marine habitats. Brandt’s cormorant foraging areas were less expansive, were exclusively marine, and mostly overlapped with double-crested cormorant foraging areas. Within these areas of overlap, Brandt’s cormorants tended to dive deeper (median depth = 6.48 m) than double-crested cormorants (median depth = 2.67 m), and selected dive locations where the water was deeper. Brandt’s cormorants also utilized a deeper, more benthic portion of the water column than did double-crested cormorants. Nevertheless, the substantial overlap in foraging habitat between the 2 cormorant species in the Columbia River estuary, particularly for Brandt’s cormorants, suggests that superabundant prey resources allow these 2 large and productive cormorant colonies to coexist on a single island near the mouth of the Columbia River.

Marine Ecology Progress Series↗

The complimentary role of lentic and lotic habitats for Arctic grayling in a complex stream-lake network in Arctic Alaska

Lakes can be important to stream dwelling fishes, yet how individuals exploit habitat heterogeneity across complex stream-lake networks is poorly understood. Furthermore, despite growing awareness that intermittent streams are widely used by fish, studies documenting use of seasonally accessible lakes remain scarce. We studied Arctic grayling (Thymallus arcticus) in a small seasonally flowing (June – October) stream-lake network in Alaska using PIT telemetry. Overall, 70% of fish visited two lakes, 8% used a single lake, and 22% used only stream reaches. We identified four distinct behavioral patterns that differed in dominant macrohabitat used (deep-lake, shallow-lake, or stream reaches), entry-day into the network, and mobility. Some juvenile fish spent the entire summer in a shallow seasonally frozen lake (average 71 days), whereas others demonstrated prospecting behavior and only entered the stream channel briefly in September. Another group included adult and juvenile fish that were highly mobile, moving up to 27 km while in the 3-km stream-lake network, and used stream reaches extensively (average 59 days). Lentic and lotic habitats served differing roles for individuals, some fish occupied stream reaches as summer foraging habitat and other individuals used them as migration corridors to access lakes. Our study emphasizes the importance of considering stream-lake connectivity in stream fish assessments, even to shallow seasonally frozen habitats not widely recognized as important. Furthermore, we demonstrate that individuals may use temporary aquatic habitats in complex and changing ways across ontogeny that are not captured by typical classifications of fish movement behavior.

Alaska↗

Behavior and movements of adult spring Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) in the Chehalis River Basin, southwestern Washington, 2015

Recent interest in flood control and restoration strategies in the Chehalis River Basin has increased the need to understand the current status and ecology of spring Chinook salmon. Based on the extended period between freshwater entry and spawn timing, spring Chinook salmon have the longest exposure of all adult Chinook salmon life histories to the low-flow and high water temperature conditions that typically occur during summer. About 100 adult spring Chinook salmon were found dead in the Chehalis River in July and August 2009. Adult Chinook salmon are known to hold in cool-water refugia during warm summer months, but the extent to which spring Chinook salmon might use thermal refugia in the Chehalis River is unknown. The movements and temperature exposures of adult spring Chinook salmon following their return to the Chehalis River were investigated using radiotelemetry and transmitters equipped with temperature sensors, combined with water temperature monitoring throughout the basin. A total of 23 spring Chinook salmon were radio-tagged between April and early July 2015; 11 were captured and released in the main-stem Chehalis River, and 12 were captured and released in the South Fork Newaukum River. Tagged fish were monitored with a combination of fixed-site monitoring locations and regular mobile tracking, from freshwater entry through the spawning period. Water temperature and flow conditions in the main-stem Chehalis River during 2015 were atypical compared to historical averages. Mean monthly water temperatures between March and July 2015 were higher than any decade since 1960 and mean daily flows were 30–70 percent of the flows in previous years. Overall, 96 percent of the tagged fish were detected, with a mean of 62 d in the detection history of tagged fish. Of the 11 fish released in the main-stem Chehalis River, six fish (55 percent) moved upstream, either shortly after release (2–7 d, 50 percent), or following a short delay (12–18 d, 50 percent). One fish released in the main-stem Chehalis River remained near the release location for 64 d before moving upstream. The final fates for the seven fish that moved upstream in the main-stem Chehalis River included two fish with unknown fates, two fish with a fate of pre-spawn mortality, and three fish that were assigned a fate of spawner. Four (36 percent) of the radio-tagged Chinook salmon released in the main-stem Chehalis River showed limited movement from their release sites, and were assigned fates of unknown (one fish), pre-spawn mortality (one fish), and spit/mortality (2 fish). The 12 spring Chinook salmon released in the South Fork Newaukum River remained in the South Fork Newaukum River throughout the study period. Five (42 percent) of these fish were actively moving through the spawning period and were assigned a fate of spawner. Seven (58 percent) of these fish were detected for a period following release, but their detection histories ended prior to the spawning period. The fates assigned to these seven fish included two fish with spit/mortality fates and five fish with fates of pre-spawn mortality. Tagged fish in both the Chehalis River and the South Fork Newaukum River showed limited movements during the peak water temperatures in July and August, and were not frequently detected at sites where water temperatures were greater than 21 °C. Pre-spawn mortality due to predation or harvest may be an important factor in the Chehalis River Basin as it was the assigned fate for 27 percent of the fish released in the main-stem Chehalis River and 42 percent of the fish released in the South Fork Newaukum River. This study represents a substantial contribution to the understanding of spring Chinook salmon in the Chehalis River Basin. The water temperatures and flow conditions during the 2015 study period were not typical of the historical conditions in the basin and the numbers of tagged fish monitored was relatively low, so results should be interpreted with those cautions in mind.

Washington↗

Olympic Fisher Reintroduction Project: Progress report 2008-2011

This progress report summarizes the final year of activities of Phase I of the Olympic fisher restoration project. The intent of the Olympic fisher reintroduction project is to reestablish a self-sustaining population of fishers on the Olympic Peninsula. To achieve this goal, the Olympic fisher reintroduction project released 90 fishers within Olympic National Park from 2008 to 2010. The reintroduction of fishers to the Olympic Peninsula was designed as an adaptive management project, including the monitoring of released fishers as a means to (1) evaluate reintroduction success, (2) investigate key biological and ecological traits of fishers, and (3) inform future reintroduction, monitoring, and research efforts. This report summarizes reintroduction activities and preliminary research and monitoring results completed through December 2011. The report is non-interpretational in nature. Although we report the status of movement, survival, and home range components of the research, we have not completed final analyses and interpretation of research results. Much of the data collected during the monitoring and research project will be analyzed and interpreted in the doctoral dissertation being developed by Jeff Lewis; the completion of this dissertation is anticipated prior to April 2013. We anticipate that this work, and analyses of other data collected during the project, will result in several peer-reviewed scientific publications in ecological and conservation journals, which collectively will comprise the final reporting of work summarized here. These publications will include papers addressing post-release movements, survival, resource selection, food habits, and age determination of fishers.

Report↗

Spatial ecology of invasive Burmese pythons in southwestern Florida

Understanding the spatial ecology of an invasive species is critical for designing effective control programs. Determining and quantifying home range estimates and habitat associations can streamline targeted removal efforts for wide-ranging, cryptic animals. The Burmese python ( Python bivittatus ) is a large-bodied constrictor snake with an established and expanding invasive population in southern Florida. This apex predator has severely impacted native wildlife across the Greater Everglades ecosystem. However, limited ecological information exists on this invasive species at the landscape level. Here, we present results from a study using radiotelemetry to quantify movements and habitat use patterns of 25 adult Burmese pythons in southwestern Florida, USA, for average periods of 814 d (range: 288–1809). Our objective was to quantify home range size, movement rates, and second- and third-order habitat selection. Mean annual home range size was 7.5 km 2 ± 2.9 km 2 (95% kernel density estimate), and pythons moved at a maximum mean daily rate of 0.52 km/d. Burmese pythons selected agriculture, freshwater wetland, saline wetland, and upland land cover classes but avoided open water and urban land cover classes. Nest site selection was highest for pythons at an elevation of 1.7 m with nesting hotspots concentrated on the borders of urban and agricultural areas or in sandy forested upland habitats. A broader understanding of the spatial utilization of Burmese pythons will enhance the utility of emerging control strategies across their invaded range.

Florida↗

Elk personality and anthropogenic food subsidy: Managing conflict and migration loss

The continued decline of long-distance ungulate migrations threatens to decouple important ecological processes that increase biodiversity and wildlife abundance. Past research has focused on preserving migration paths where habitat fragmentation and loss disrupt movement corridors. However, shifting residency-migration trade-offs are the stronger driver of migration loss in some populations. Suburban residential developments may provide ungulates with anthropogenic food sources and refuge from predators, which can increase population growth among short-distance migrants relative to long-distance migrants. This trend can increase wildlife vehicle collisions and other human–wildlife conflicts while simultaneously reducing hunting opportunities. Yet, individual animals vary in their tolerance of human disturbance. We investigated how interindividual variation relative to conflict and human habituation influences elk migration and space use on shared winter range. We used a clustering algorithm applied to GPS collar data to identify elk use of anthropogenic food resources in suburban habitat. Cluster locations identified all known anthropogenic subsidy locations during the study period. Elk that used suburban anthropogenic food sources also migrated 60% shorter distances between summer and winter ranges than elk with no known use of these food subsidies. Elk use of protected wintering grounds was spatially structured such that conflict-prone, short-distance migrants disproportionately used areas with more human activity. Clustering algorithms applied to GPS collar data may allow managers to identify foci of concentrated use that generates human–wildlife conflict, and where prion deposition and environmental contamination facilitate the spread of chronic wasting disease, particularly in suburban areas with anthropogenic food subsidies. The apparent spatial structuring of shared winter range according to the conflict potential and migration strategy of individual elk may also permit managers to assess relative recruitment among cryptic population segments using different migration strategies and facilitate targeted, adaptive management actions. These associations between conflict, human habituation, and migration shed light on the urbanization of wildlife species, inform efforts to manage human–wildlife conflict and disease spread, and emphasize that a multipronged approach beyond maintaining habitat corridors may be necessary to conserve long-distance migrations for species that can become human-habituated.

Wyoming↗

Tornadic storm avoidance behavior in breeding songbirds

Migration is a common behavior used by animals of many taxa to occupy different habitats during different periods . Migrant birds are categorized as either facultative (i.e., those that are forced to migrate by some proximal cue, often weather) or obligate (i.e., those that migrate on a regular cycle) . During migration, obligate migrants can curtail or delay flights in response to inclement weather or until favorable winds prevail , and they can temporarily reorient or reverse direction when ecological or meteorological obstacles are encountered . However, it is not known whether obligate migrants undertake facultative migrations and make large-scale movements in response to proximal cues outside of their regular migration periods . Here, we present the first documentation of obligate long-distance migrant birds undertaking a facultative migration, wherein breeding golden-winged warblers ( Vermivora chrysoptera ) carrying light-level geolocators performed a >1,500 km 5-day circumvention of a severe tornadic storm. The birds evacuated their breeding territories >24 hr before the arrival of the storm and atmospheric variation associated with it. The probable cue, radiating >1,000 km from tornadic storms , perceived by birds and influencing bird behavior and movements , is infrasound (i.e., sound below the range of human hearing). With the predicted increase in severity and frequency of similar storms as anthropogenic climate change progresses , understanding large-scale behavioral responses of animals to such events will be an important objective of future research.

Current Biology↗

Bringing Bayesian models to life

Bringing Bayesian Models to Life empowers the reader to extend, enhance, and implement statistical models for ecological and environmental data analysis. We open the black box and show the reader how to connect modern statistical models to computer algorithms. These algorithms allow the user to fit models that answer their scientific questions without needing to rely on automated Bayesian software. We show how to handcraft statistical models that are useful in ecological and environmental science including: linear and generalized linear models, spatial and time series models, occupancy and capture-recapture models, animal movement models, spatio-temporal models, and integrated population-models.

Book↗

Effects of fragmentation on the spatial ecology of the California Kingsnake ( Lampropeltis californiae )

We investigated the spatial ecology of the California Kingsnake ( Lampropeltis californiae ) in unfragmented and fragmented habitat with varying patch sizes and degrees of exposure to urban edges. We radiotracked 34 Kingsnakes for up to 3 yr across four site types: interior areas of unfragmented ecological reserves, the urbanized edge of these reserves, large habitat fragments, and small habitat fragments. There was no relationship between California Kingsnake movements and the degree of exposure to urban edges and fragmentation. Home range size and movement patterns of Kingsnakes on edges and fragments resembled those in unfragmented sites. Average home-range size on each site type was smaller than the smallest fragment in which snakes were tracked. The persistence of California Kingsnakes in fragmented landscapes may be related directly to their small spatial movement patterns, home-range overlap, and ability to use urban edge habitat.

Journal of Herpetology↗

Ecological Requirements for Pallid Sturgeon Reproduction and Recruitment in the Lower Missouri River: A Research Synthesis 2005-08

This report provides a synthesis of results obtained between 2005 and 2008 from the Comprehensive Sturgeon Research Program, an interagency collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey, Nebraska Game and Parks Commission, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' Missouri River Recovery - Integrated Science Program. The goal of the Comprehensive Sturgeon Research Program is to improve fundamental understanding of reproductive ecology of the pallid sturgeon with the intent that improved understanding will inform river and species management decisions. Specific objectives include: *Determining movement, habitat-use, and reproductive behavior of pallid sturgeon; *Understanding reproductive physiology of pallid sturgeon and relations to environmental conditions; *Determining origin, transport, and fate of drifting pallid sturgeon larvae, and evaluating bottlenecks for recruitment of early life stages; *Quantifying availability and dynamics of aquatic habitats needed by pallid sturgeon for all life stages; and *Managing databases, integrating understanding, and publishing relevant information into the public domain. Management actions to increase reproductive success and survival of pallid sturgeon in the Lower Missouri River have been focused on flow regime, channel morphology, and propagation. Integration of 2005-08 Comprehensive Sturgeon Research Program research provides insight into linkages among flow regime, re-engineered channel morphology, and pallid sturgeon reproduction and survival. The research approach of the Comprehensive Sturgeon Research Program integrates opportunistic field studies, field-based experiments, and controlled laboratory studies. The field study plan is designed to explore the role of flow regime and associated environmental cues using two complementary approaches. An upstream-downstream approach compares sturgeon reproductive behavior between an upstream section of the Lower Missouri River with highly altered flow regime to a downstream section that maintains much of its pre-regulation flow variability. The upstream section also has the potential for an experimental approach to compare reproductive behavior in years with pulsed flow modifications ('spring rises') to years without. The reproductive cycle of the female sturgeon requires several years to progress through gonadal development, oocyte maturation, and spawning. Converging lines of evidence support the hypothesis that maturation and readiness to spawn in female sturgeon is cued many months before spawning. Information on reproductive readiness of shovelnose sturgeon indicates that sturgeon at different locations along the Lower Missouri River between St. Louis and Gavins Point Dam are all responding to the same early cue. Although not a perfect surrogate, the more abundant shovelnose sturgeon is morphologically, physiologically, and genetically similar to pallid sturgeon, and thereby provides a useful comparative model for the rarer species. Day length is the likely candidate to define a temporal spawning window. Within the spawning window, one or more additional, short-term, and specific cues may serve to signal ovulation and release of gametes. Of three potential spawning cues - water temperature, water discharge, and day of year - water temperature is the most likely proximate cue because of the fundamental physiological role temperature plays in sturgeon embryo development and survival, and the sensitivity of many fish hormones to temperature change. It also is possible that neither temperature nor discharge is cueing spawning; instead, reproductive behavior may result from the biological clock advancing an individual fish's readiness to spawn day after day through the spawning period until the right moment, independent of local environmental conditions. Separation of the individual effects of discharge events, water temperature, and other possible factors, such as proximity to male

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Toward a theory of connectivity among depressional wetlands of the great plains

Functions of inland, freshwater depressional wetlands of the Great Plains are driven by natural disturbance in the form of fluctuating water levels or shifts between wet and dry ecological states. The geographically isolated prairie potholes and playas form broad-scale systems or networks that support biodiversity and provide ecological goods and services. Anthropogenic disturbance, primarily in the form of sediment accretion, results in the functional loss of individual wetlands from the system. The ecological value of individual depressional wetlands has been documented, but there has not been any assessment of the contribution of individual wetlands to the system. Network analysis can be used to prioritize the contribution of individual wetlands to the system for the purpose of conservation and management. We utilized the playas wetland system of the Southern High Plains to illustrate this concept. Playas form a redundant, resilient network based on natural disturbance (i.e., inundation patterns) across broad spatial and temporal scales that support biodiversity. Loss of individual playas to sediment accretion is causing the network to break down, resulting in the need for a greater proportion of inundated playas to provide the original level of ecological goods and services. The effects of decreased functional connectivity due to anthropogenic disturbance at the system scale portend negative effects on movement strategies, dynamics and persistence of local populations, decreased biodiversity, and, ultimately, the redistribution and system-wide extinction of playa wetland-dependent populations and loss of associated functions.

Book chapter↗

Classification tree and minimum-volume ellipsoid analyses of the distribution of ponderosa pine in the western USA

Aim? Ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Douglas ex Lawson & C. Lawson) is an economically and ecologically important conifer that has a wide geographic range in the western USA, but is mostly absent from the geographic centre of its distribution - the Great Basin and adjoining mountain ranges. Much of its modern range was achieved by migration of geographically distinct Sierra Nevada (P. ponderosa var. ponderosa) and Rocky Mountain (P. ponderosa var. scopulorum) varieties in the last 10,000 years. Previous research has confirmed genetic differences between the two varieties, and measurable genetic exchange occurs where their ranges now overlap in western Montana. A variety of approaches in bioclimatic modelling is required to explore the ecological differences between these varieties and their implications for historical biogeography and impending changes in western landscapes. Location? Western USA. Methods? We used a classification tree analysis and a minimum-volume ellipsoid as models to explain the broad patterns of distribution of ponderosa pine in modern environments using climatic and edaphic variables. Most biogeographical modelling assumes that the target group represents a single, ecologically uniform taxonomic population. Classification tree analysis does not require this assumption because it allows the creation of pathways that predict multiple positive and negative outcomes. Thus, classification tree analysis can be used to test the ecological uniformity of the species. In addition, a multidimensional ellipsoid was constructed to describe the niche of each variety of ponderosa pine, and distances from the niche were calculated and mapped on a 4-km grid for each ecological variable. Results? The resulting classification tree identified three dominant pathways predicting ponderosa pine presence. Two of these three pathways correspond roughly to the distribution of var. ponderosa, and the third pathway generally corresponds to the distribution of var. scopulorum. The classification tree and minimum-volume ellipsoid model show that both varieties have very similar temperature limitations, although var. ponderosa is more limited by the temperature extremes of the continental interior. The precipitation limitations of the two varieties are seasonally different, with var. ponderosa requiring significant winter moisture and var. scopulorum requiring significant summer moisture. Great Basin mountain ranges are too cold at higher elevations to support either variety of ponderosa pine, and at lower elevations are too dry in summer for var. scopulorum and too dry in winter for var. ponderosa. Main conclusions? The classification tree analysis indicates that var. ponderosa is ecologically as well as genetically distinct from var. scopulorum. Ecological differences may maintain genetic separation in spite of a limited zone of introgression between the two varieties in western Montana. Two hypotheses about past and future movements of ponderosa pine emerge from our analyses. The first hypothesis is that, during the last glacial period, colder and/or drier summers truncated most of the range of var. scopulorum in the central Rockies, but had less dramatic effects on the more maritime and winter-wet distribution of var. ponderosa. The second hypothesis is that, all other factors held constant, increasing summer temperatures in the future should produce changes in the distribution of var. scopulorum that are likely to involve range expansions in the central Rockies with the warming of mountain ranges currently too cold but sufficiently wet in summer for var. scopulorum. Finally, our results underscore the growing need to focus on genotypes in biogeographical modelling and ecological forecasting.

Journal of Biogeography↗

Estimating functional connectivity of wildlife habitat and its relevance to ecological risk assessment

Habitat fragmentation is a major threat to the viability of wildlife populations and the maintenance of biodiversity. Fragmentation relates to the sub-division of habitat into disjunct patches. Usually coincident with fragmentation per se is loss of habitat, a reduction in the size of the remnant patches, and increasing distance between patches. Natural and anthropogenic processes leading to habitat fragmentation occur at many spatial scales, and their impacts on wildlife depend on the scales at which species interact with the landscape. The concept of functional connectivity captures this organism-based view of the relative ease of movement or degree of exchange between physically disjunct habitat patches. Functional connectivity of a given habitat arrangement for a given wildlife species depends on details of the organism's life history and behavioral ecology, but, for broad categories of species, quantities such as home range size and dispersal distance scale allometrically with body mass. These relationships can be incorporated into spatial analyses of functional connectivity, which can be quantified by indices or displayed graphically in maps. We review indices and GIS-based approaches to estimating functional connectivity, presenting examples from the literature and our own work on mammalian distributions. Such analyses can be readily incorporated within an ecological risk framework. Estimates of functional connectivity may be useful in a screening-level assessment of the impact of habitat fragmentation relative to other stressors, and may be crucial in detailed population modeling and viability analysis.

ASTM Selected Technical Papers↗

A functional model for characterizing long-distance movement behaviour

Advancements in wildlife telemetry techniques have made it possible to collect large data sets of highly accurate animal locations at a fine temporal resolution. These data sets have prompted the development of a number of statistical methodologies for modelling animal movement. Telemetry data sets are often collected for purposes other than fine-scale movement analysis. These data sets may differ substantially from those that are collected with technologies suitable for fine-scale movement modelling and may consist of locations that are irregular in time, are temporally coarse or have large measurement error. These data sets are time-consuming and costly to collect but may still provide valuable information about movement behaviour. We developed a Bayesian movement model that accounts for error from multiple data sources as well as movement behaviour at different temporal scales. The Bayesian framework allows us to calculate derived quantities that describe temporally varying movement behaviour, such as residence time, speed and persistence in direction. The model is flexible, easy to implement and computationally efficient. We apply this model to data from Colorado Canada lynx ( Lynx canadensis ) and use derived quantities to identify changes in movement behaviour.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution↗