SEARCH · Search USGS

Results for “Climate Change Responses”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 361 records · Page 20Linked to original sources

USGS2020

Plasticity of Least Tern and Piping Plover nesting behaviors in response to sand temperature

Birds that nest on the ground in open areas, such as Piping Plovers ( Charadrius melodus ) and Interior Least Terns ( Sternula antillarum athalassos ), are exposed to high temperatures in thermally stressful environments. As a result, some ground-nesting avian species have adapted behavioral strategies to maintain thermal regulation of eggs and themselves. We assessed the impact of sand temperature on shorebird nesting behaviors by installing video cameras and thermocouples at 52 Least Tern and 55 Piping Plover nests on the Missouri River in North Dakota during the 2014–2015 breeding seasons. Daily duration and frequency of shading behaviors exhibited a nonlinear relationship with temperature; therefore, we used segmented regressions to determine at what threshold temperature (mean temperature = 25.7 ⸰ C for shading behavior daily frequency and mean temperature = 25.1 ⸰ C for shading behavior daily duration) shorebird adults exhibited a behavioral response to rising sand temperatures. Daily nest attendance of both species decreased with increasing sand temperatures in our system. Frequency and duration of daily shading behaviors were positively correlated with sand temperatures above the temperature threshold. Piping Plovers exhibited more and longer shading behaviors above and below the temperature thresholds (below: frequency = 10.30 ± 1.69 se, duration = 7.29 min ± 2.35 se; above: frequency = 59.27 ± 6.87 se) compared to Least Terns (below: frequency = −1.37 ± 1.98 se, duration = −0.73 min ± 1.51 se; above: frequency = 31.32 ± 7.29 se). The effects of sand temperature on avian ground-nesting behavior will be critical to understand in order to adapt or develop recovery plans in response to climate change.

North Dakota↗

USGS2018

Adaptation with climate uncertainty: An examination of agricultural land use in the United States

This paper examines adaptation responses to climate change through adjustment of agricultural land use. The climate drivers we examine are changes in long-term climate normals (e.g., 10-year moving averages) and changes in inter-annual climate variability. Using US county level data over 1982 to 2012 from Census of Agriculture, we find that impacts of long-term climate normals are as important as that of inter-annual climate variability. Projecting into the future, we find projected climate change will lead to an expansion in crop land share across the northern and interior western United States with decreases in the south. We also find that grazing land share increases in southern regions and Inland Pacific Northwest and declines in the northern areas. However, the extent to which the adaptation potential would be is dependent on the climate model, emission scenario and time horizon under consideration.

Land Use Policy↗

USGS2020

Utilization of multiple microbial tools to evaluate efficacy of restoration strategies to improve recreational water quality at a Lake Michigan Beach (Racine, WI)

Hydro-meteorological conditions facilitate transport of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) to the nearshore environment, affecting recreational water quality. North Beach (Racine, Wisconsin, United States), is an exemplar public beach site along Lake Michigan, where precipitation-mediated surface runoff, wave encroachment, stormwater and tributary outflow were demonstrated to contribute to beach advisories. Multiple restoration actions, including installation of a stormwater retention wetland, were successfully deployed to improve recreational water quality. Implementation of molecular methods (e.g. human microbial source tracking markers and Escherichia coli ( E. coli ) qPCR) assisted in identifying potential pollution sources and improving public health response time. However, periodic water quality failures still occur. As local beach managers reassess restoration measures in response to climatic changes, use of expanded microbial methods (including bacterial community profiling) may contribute to a better understanding of these dynamic environments. In this 2-year study (2015 and 2019), nearshore/offshore Lake Michigan, stormwater, and tributary samples were collected to determine if, 1) the constructed wetland (~50 m from the shoreline) continued to provide stormwater separation/retention and 2) mixing between onshore sources, Root River and Lake Michigan, was increasing due to rising precipitation/lake levels. Monthly rainfall totals were 1.5× higher in 2019 than 2015, coinciding with a 0.63 m lake-level rise. The prevalence of more intense, onshore winds also increased, facilitating interaction between potential reservoirs of FIB with nearshore water through wind driven waves and lake intrusion, e.g. beach sands and the adjacent Root River. While a strong relationship existed between wet weather wetland and North Beach nearshore E. coli concentrations (all sites), bacterial communities were strikingly different. Conversely, bacterial community overlap existed between the Root River mouth and nearshore/offshore sites. These results suggest the constructed wetland can accommodate the climate-related changes observed in this study. Future restoration activities could be directed towards upstream tributary sources in order to minimize microbial contaminants entering Lake Michigan.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2009

Environmental forcing on life history strategies: Evidence for multi-trophic level responses at ocean basin scales

Variation in life history traits of organisms is thought to reflect adaptations to environmental forcing occurring from bottom-up and top-down processes. Such variation occurs not only among, but also within species, indicating demographic plasticity in response to environmental conditions. From a broad literature review, we present evidence for ocean basin- and large marine ecosystem-scale variation in intra-specific life history traits, with similar responses occurring among trophic levels from relatively short-lived secondary producers to very long-lived apex predators. Between North Atlantic and North Pacific Ocean basins, for example, species in the Eastern Pacific exhibited either later maturation, lower fecundity, and/or greater annual survival than conspecifics in the Western Atlantic. Parallel variations in life histories among trophic levels also occur in adjacent seas and between eastern vs. western ocean boundaries. For example, zooplankton and seabird species in cooler Barents Sea waters exhibit lower fecundity or greater annual survival than conspecifics in the Northeast Atlantic. Sea turtles exhibit a larger size and a greater reproductive output in the Western Pacific vs. Eastern Pacific. These examples provide evidence for food-web-wide modifications in life history strategies in response to environmental forcing. We hypothesize that such dichotomies result from frequency and amplitude shifts in resource availability over varying temporal and spatial scales. We review data that supports three primary mechanisms by which environmental forcing affects life history strategies: (1) food-web structure; (2) climate variability affecting the quantity and seasonality of primary productivity; (3) bottom-up vs. top-down forcing. These proposed mechanisms provide a framework for comparisons of ecosystem function among oceanic regions (or regimes) and are essential in modeling ecosystem response to climate change, as well as for creating dynamic ecosystem-based marine conservation strategies.

Progress in Oceanography↗

USGS2020

Late Quaternary evolution and stratigraphic framework influence on coastal systems along the north-central Gulf of Mexico, USA

Coastal systems in the Gulf of Mexico are threatened by reduced sediment supply, storm impacts and relative sea-level rise (RSLR). The geologic record provides insight into geomorphic evolution thresholds to these forcing mechanisms to help predict future barrier evolution in response to climate change. This study synthesizes ∼2100 km of geophysical data, 700 + sediment cores, and 62 radiocarbon dates to regionally map two lowstand sequence boundaries, multiple ravinement surfaces and fourteen depositional facies demonstrating stratigraphic and antecedent topographic influences on coastal evolution. The Mississippi-Alabama (MSAL) barriers are anchored by a marine isotope stage (MIS) 5e section of Dauphin Island coupled with an MIS 2 surface gradient change. Sand for the modern MSAL barriers were largely sourced through Holocene transgressive ravinement of relict valley fill deposits, providing up to 300 × 106 m3 of sand. Mud-filled MIS 2 tributaries correspond to areas of repeated storm breaching or tidal inlets. A Holocene geomorphic evolutionary model was created for Petit Bois and Dauphin Islands, highlighting RSLR rates, changes in sediment supply and the antecedent geologic framework. As the MIS 2 surface was flooded, tidal/wave scour supplied sand to migrating marine shoals. These transgressing shoals converted drowned paleovalleys to estuaries ∼9ka BP. Islands formed in their modern positions ∼6ka BP, when sediment supply was high and RSLR rates were 2 mm/yr. Between ∼4ka-1750 CE, islands prograded from reduced RSLR rates of 1-0.4 mm/yr and sufficient sand supply from alongshore/inner shelf sources. Currently, the islands experience 3.74 mm/yr of RSLR and reduced sediment supply, resulting in barrier degradation.

Alabama, Mississippi↗

USGS2003

Development of small carbonate banks on the south Florida platform margin: Response to sea level and climate change

Geophysical and coring data from the Dry Tortugas, Tortugas Bank, and Riley’s Hump on the southwest Florida margin reveal the stratigraphic framework and growth history of these carbonate banks. The Holocene reefs of the Dry Tortugas and Tortugas Bank are approximately 14 and 10 m thick, respectively, and are situated upon Pleistocene reefal edifices. Tortugas Bank consists of the oldest Holocene corals in the Florida Keys with earliest coral recruitment occurring at &sim;9.6 cal ka. Growth curves for the Tortugas Bank reveal slow growth (<1 mm/yr) until 6.2 cal ka, then a rapid increase to 3.4 mm/yr, until shallow reef demise at &sim;4.2 cal ka. Coral reef development at the Dry Tortugas began at &sim;6.4 cal ka. Aggradation at the Dry Tortugas was linear, and rapid (&sim;3.7 mm/yr) and kept pace with sea-level change. The increase in aggradation rate of Tortugas Bank at 6.2 cal ka is attributed to the growth of the Dry Tortugas reefs, which formed a barrier to inimical shelf water. Termination of shallow (<15 m below sea level) reef growth at Tortugas Bank at &sim;4.2 cal ka is attributed to paleoclimate change in the North American interior that increased precipitation and fluvial discharge. Reef growth rates and characteristics are related to the rate of sea-level rise relative to the position of the reef on the shelf margin, and are additionally modified by hydrographic conditions related to climate change.

Florida↗

USGS2000

Paleoclimate reconstruction along the Pole-Equator-Pole transect of the Americas (PEP 1)

Examples are presented of inter-hemispheric comparison of instrumental climate and paleoclimate proxy records from the Americas for different temporal scales. Despite a certain symmetry of seasonal precipitation patterns along the PEP I transect, decadal variability of winter precipitation shows different characteristics in terms of amplitude and frequency in both the last 100 and last 1000 years. Such differences in variability are also seen in a comparison of time series of different El Nino/Southern Oscillation proxy records from North and South America, however, these differences do not appear to affect the spatial correlation with Pacific sea surface temperature patterns. Local and regional differences in response to climate change are even more pronounced for records with lower temporal resolution, and inter-hemispheric synchroneity may or may not be indicative of the same forcing. This aspect is illustrated in an inter-hemispheric comparison of the last 1000 years of glacier variability, and of the full- and lateglacial lake level history.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2000

Preface [to special section on recent Loch Vale Watershed research]

Catchment-scale intensive and extensive research conducted over the last decade shows that our understanding of the biogeochemical and hydrologic processes in subalpine and alpine basins is not yet sufficiently mature to model and predict how biogeochemical transformations and surface water quality will change in response to climatic or human-driven changes in energy, water, and chemicals. A better understanding of these processes is needed for input to decision-making regulatory agencies and federal land managers. In recognition of this problem the National Research Council [1998] has identified as a critical research need an improved understanding of how global change will affect biogeochemical interactions with the hydrologic cycle and biogeochemical controls over the transport of water, nutrients, and materials from land to freshwater ecosystems. Improved knowledge of alpine and subalpine ecosystems is particularly important since high-elevation catchments are very sensitive to small changes in the flux of energy, chemicals, and water. Furthermore, alpine ecosystems may act as early warning indicators for ecosystem changes at lower elevations.

Colorado↗

USGS2015

Floristic similarity, diversity and endemism as indicators of refugia characteristics and needs in the West

The floras of mountain ranges, and their similarity, beta diversity and endemism, are indicative of processes of community assembly; they are also the initial conditions for coming disassembly and reassembly in response to climate change. As such, these characteristics can inform thinking on refugia. The published floras or approximations for 42 mountain ranges in the three major mountain systems (Sierra-Cascades, Rocky Mountains and Great Basin ranges) across the western USA and southwestern Canada were analysed. The similarity is higher among the ranges of the Rockies while equally low among the ranges of the Sierra-Cascades and Great Basin. Mantel correlations of similarity with geographic distance are also higher for the Rocky Mountains. Endemism is relatively high, but is highest in the Sierra-Cascades (due to the Sierra Nevada as the single largest range) and lowest in the Great Basin, where assemblages are allochthonous. These differences indicate that the geologic substrates of the Cascade volcanoes, which are much younger than any others, play a role in addition to geographic isolation in community assembly. The pattern of similarity and endemism indicates that the ranges of the Cascades will not function well as stepping stones and the endemic species that they harbor may need more protection than those of the Rocky Mountains. The geometry of the ranges is complemented by geology in setting the stage for similarity and the potential for refugia across the West. Understanding the geographic template as initial conditions for the future can guide the forecast of refugia and related monitoring or protection efforts.

Biodiversity↗

USGS2018

Coastal wetland adaptation to sea level rise: Quantifying potential for landward migration and coastal squeeze

Coastal wetland ecosystems are expected to migrate landwards in response to rising seas. However, due to differences in topography and coastal urbanization, estuaries vary in their ability to accommodate migration. Low‐lying urban areas can constrain migration and lead to wetland loss (i.e. coastal squeeze), especially where existing wetlands cannot keep pace with rising seas via vertical adjustments. In many estuaries, there is a pressing need to identify landward migration corridors and better quantify the potential for landward migration and coastal squeeze. We quantified and compared the area available for landward migration of tidal saline wetlands and the area where urban development is expected to prevent migration for 39 estuaries along the wetland‐rich USA Gulf of Mexico coast. We did so under three sea level rise scenarios (0.5, 1.0, and 1.5 m by 2100). Within the region, the potential for wetland migration is highest within certain estuaries in Louisiana and southern Florida (e.g. Atchafalaya/Vermilion Bays, Mermentau River, Barataria Bay, and the North and South Ten Thousand Islands estuaries). The potential for coastal squeeze is highest in estuaries containing major metropolitan areas that extend into low‐lying lands. The Charlotte Harbor, Tampa Bay, and Crystal‐Pithlachascotee estuaries (Florida) have the highest amounts of urban land expected to constrain wetland migration. Urban barriers to migration are also high in the Galveston Bay (Texas) and Atchafalaya/Vermilion Bays (Louisiana) estuaries. Synthesis and applications . Coastal wetlands provide many ecosystem services that benefit human health and well‐being, including shoreline protection and fish and wildlife habitat. As the rate of sea level rise accelerates in response to climate change, coastal wetland resources could be lost in areas that lack space for landward migration. Migration corridors are particularly important in highly urbanized estuaries where, due to low‐lying coastal development, there is not space for wetlands to move and adapt to sea level rise. Future‐focused landscape conservation plans that incorporate the protection of wetland migration corridors can increase the adaptive capacity of these valuable ecosystems and simultaneously decrease the vulnerability of coastal human communities to the harmful effects of rising seas.

Gulf of Mexico coast↗

USGS2017

Declines in low-elevation subalpine tree populations outpace growth in high-elevation populations with warming

Species distribution shifts in response to climate change require that recruitment increase beyond current range boundaries. For trees with long life spans, the importance of climate-sensitive seedling establishment to the pace of range shifts has not been demonstrated quantitatively. Using spatially explicit, stochastic population models combined with data from long-term forest surveys, we explored whether the climate-sensitivity of recruitment observed in climate manipulation experiments was sufficient to alter populations and elevation ranges of two widely distributed, high-elevation North American conifers. Empirically observed, warming-driven declines in recruitment led to rapid modelled population declines at the low-elevation, ‘warm edge’ of subalpine forest and slow emergence of populations beyond the high-elevation, ‘cool edge’. Because population declines in the forest occurred much faster than population emergence in the alpine, we observed range contraction for both species. For Engelmann spruce, this contraction was permanent over the modelled time horizon, even in the presence of increased moisture. For limber pine, lower sensitivity to warming may facilitate persistence at low elevations – especially in the presence of increased moisture – and rapid establishment above tree line, and, ultimately, expansion into the alpine. Synthesis . Assuming 21st century warming and no additional moisture, population dynamics in high-elevation forests led to transient range contractions for limber pine and potentially permanent range contractions for Engelmann spruce. Thus, limitations to seedling recruitment with warming can constrain the pace of subalpine tree range shifts.

Journal of Ecology↗

USGS2018

Tools for managing hydrologic alteration on a regional scale II: Setting targets to protect stream health

Widespread hydrologic alteration creates a need for tools to assess ecological impacts to streams that can be applied across large geographic scales. A regional framework for biologically based flow management can help catchment managers prioritise streams for protection, evaluate impacts of disturbance or interventions and provide a starting point for causal assessment in degraded streams. However, lack of flow data limit the ability to assess hydrologic conditions across a region. Hydrologic models can address this problem. Regionally calibrated hydrologic models were used to estimate current and reference flows at 572 bioassessment sites in southern and central coastal California. Flow alteration was characterised as the difference in 39 flow metrics calculated from simulations of present‐day and reference flow time‐series, calculated under up to four precipitation conditions. Biological condition was assessed with the California Stream Condition Index (CSCI) and its components. Logistic regressions were used to predict the likelihood of high scores (i.e. ≥10th percentile of the CSCI reference calibration data). Statistically significant relationships between increasing severity of hydrologic alteration and decreasing biological condition were used to set thresholds that reflected tolerance for risk of a stakeholder advisory group. An index of hydrologic alteration was created by selecting flow metrics based on their importance for predicting biological response variables in boosted regression tree models. Metrics were selected in the order of decreasing importance, and no more than two metrics per metric class were selected (i.e. duration, frequency, magnitude, timing and variability). Seven metrics were selected: HighDur (duration of high‐flow events), HighNum (# of high‐flow events), NoDisturb (duration between high‐ or low‐flow events), MaxMonthQ (maximum monthly discharge), Q99 (99th percentile of daily streamflow), QmaxIDR (interdecile range of annual maxima) and RBI (Richards–Baker Index). Applying the index to data from a probabilistic survey, 34% of stream‐miles in southern California were estimated to be hydrologically altered. One of four management priorities were assigned to each site based on biological condition and hydrologic status: protection (healthy and unaltered, 52% of stream‐miles), monitoring (healthy but altered 4%), evaluation of flow management (unhealthy and altered, 30%) and evaluation of other management (unhealthy but unaltered, 14%). Regionally derived biologically based targets for flow alteration allow catchment managers to prioritise activities and conduct screenings for causal assessments across large spatial scales. Furthermore, regional tools pave the way for incorporation of hydrologic management in policies and catchment planning designed to support biological integrity in streams. Development of regional tools should be a priority where hydrologic alteration is pervasive or expected to increase in response to climate change or urbanisation.

Freshwater Biology↗

USGS2024

Utility of an instantaneous salt dilution method for measuring streamflow in headwater streams

Streamflow records are biased toward large streams and rivers, yet small headwater streams are often the focus of ecological research in response to climate change. Conventional flow measurement instruments such as acoustic Doppler velocimeters (ADVs) do not perform well during low-flow conditions in small streams, truncating the development of rating curves during critical baseflow conditions dominated by groundwater inflow. We revisited an instantaneous solute tracer injection method as an alternative to ADVs based on paired measurements to compare their precision, efficiency, and feasibility within headwater streams across a range of flow conditions. We show that the precision of discharge measurements using salt dilution by slug injection and ADV methods were comparable overall, but salt dilution was more precise during the lowest flows and required less time to implement. Often, headwater streams were at or below the depth threshold where ADV measurements could even be attempted and transects were complicated by coarse bed material and cobbles. We discuss the methodological benefits and limitations of salt dilution by slug injection and conclude that the method could facilitate a proliferation of streamflow observation across headwater stream networks that are highly undersampled compared to larger streams.

Virginia↗

USGS2009

Assessing the response of area burned to changing climate in western boreal North America using a Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) approach

Fire is a common disturbance in the North American boreal forest that influences ecosystem structure and function. The temporal and spatial dynamics of fire are likely to be altered as climate continues to change. In this study, we ask the question: how will area burned in boreal North America by wildfire respond to future changes in climate? To evaluate this question, we developed temporally and spatially explicit relationships between air temperature and fuel moisture codes derived from the Canadian Fire Weather Index System to estimate annual area burned at 2.5?? (latitude ?? longitude) resolution using a Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline (MARS) approach across Alaska and Canada. Burned area was substantially more predictable in the western portion of boreal North America than in eastern Canada. Burned area was also not very predictable in areas of substantial topographic relief and in areas along the transition between boreal forest and tundra. At the scale of Alaska and western Canada, the empirical fire models explain on the order of 82% of the variation in annual area burned for the period 1960-2002. July temperature was the most frequently occurring predictor across all models, but the fuel moisture codes for the months June through August (as a group) entered the models as the most important predictors of annual area burned. To predict changes in the temporal and spatial dynamics of fire under future climate, the empirical fire models used output from the Canadian Climate Center CGCM2 global climate model to predict annual area burned through the year 2100 across Alaska and western Canada. Relative to 1991-2000, the results suggest that average area burned per decade will double by 2041-2050 and will increase on the order of 3.5-5.5 times by the last decade of the 21st century. To improve the ability to better predict wildfire across Alaska and Canada, future research should focus on incorporating additional effects of long-term and successional vegetation changes on area burned to account more fully for interactions among fire, climate, and vegetation dynamics. ?? 2009 The Authors Journal compilation ?? 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2012

Aquatic insect assemblages associated with subalpine stream segment types in relict glaciated headwaters

1. Aquatic habitats and biotic assemblages in subalpine headwaters are sensitive to climate and human impacts. Understanding biotic responses to such perturbations and the contribution of high-elevation headwaters to riverine biodiversity requires the assessment of assemblage composition among habitat types. We compared aquatic insect assemblages among headwater stream segment types in relict glaciated subalpine basins in Mt. Rainier National Park, Washington, USA. 2. Aquatic insects were collected during summer and autumn in three headwater basins. In each basin, three different stream segment types were sampled: colluvial groundwater sources, alluvial lake inlets, and cascade-bedrock lake outlets. Ward's hierarchical cluster analysis revealed high β diversity in aquatic insect assemblages, and non-metric multidimensional scaling indicated that spatial and temporal patterns in assemblage composition differed among headwater stream segment types. Aquatic insect assemblages showed more fidelity to stream segment types than to individual basins, and the principal environmental variables associated with assemblage structure were temperature and substrate. 3. Indicator species analyses identified specific aquatic insects associated with each stream segment type. Several rare and potentially endemic aquatic insect taxa were present, including the recently described species, Lednia borealis (Baumann and Kondratieff). 4. Our results indicate that aquatic insect assemblages in relict glaciated subalpine headwaters were strongly differentiated among stream segment types. These results illustrate the contribution of headwaters to riverine biodiversity and emphasise the importance of these habitats for monitoring biotic responses to climate change. Monitoring biotic assemblages in high-elevation headwaters is needed to prevent the potential loss of unique and sensitive biota.

Washington↗

USGS2013

Influence of monsoon-related riparian phenology on yellow-billed cuckoo habitat selection in Arizona

Aim: The western yellow-billed cuckoo (Coccyzus americanus occidentalis), a Neotropical migrant bird, is facing steep population declines in its western breeding grounds owing primarily to loss of native habitat. The favoured esting habitat for the cuckoo in the south-western United States is low-elevation riparian forests and woodlands. Our aim was to explore relationships between vegetation phenology patterns captured by satellite phenometrics and the distribution of the yellow-billed cuckoo, and to use this information to map cuckoo habitat. Location: Arizona, USA. Methods: Land surface phenometrics were derived from satellite Advanced Very High-Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), bi-weekly time-composite, ormalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data for 1998 and 1999 at a resolution of 1 km. Fourier harmonics were used to analyse the waveform of the annual NDVI profile in each pixel. To create the models, we coupled 1998 satellite phenometrics with 1998 field survey data of cuckoo presence or absence and with point data that sampled riparian and cottonwood–willow vegetation types. Our models were verified and refined using field and satellite data collected in 1999. Results: The models reveal that cuckoos prefer areas that experience peak greenness 29 days later, are 36% more dynamic and slightly (< 1%) more productive than their average cottonwood–willow habitat. The results support a scenario in which cuckoos migrate northwards, following the greening of riparian corridors and surrounding landscapes in response to monsoon precipitation, but then select a nesting site based on optimizing the near-term foraging potential of the neighbourhood. Main conclusions: The identification of preferred phenotypes within recognized habitat can be used to refine future habitat models, inform habitat response to climate change, and suggest adaptation strategies. For example, models of phenotype preferences can guide management actions by identifying and prioritizing for conservation those landscapes that reliably exhibit highly preferred phenometrics on a consistent basis.

Arizona↗

USGS2016

Consistent response of bird populations to climate change on two continents

Global climate change is a major threat to biodiversity. Large-scale analyses have generally focused on the impacts of climate change on the geographic ranges of species and on phenology, the timing of ecological phenomena. We used long-term monitoring of the abundance of breeding birds across Europe and the United States to produce, for both regions, composite population indices for two groups of species: those for which climate suitability has been either improving or declining since 1980. The ratio of these composite indices, the climate impact indicator (CII), reflects the divergent fates of species favored or disadvantaged by climate change. The trend in CII is positive and similar in the two regions. On both continents, interspecific and spatial variation in population abundance trends are well predicted by climate suitability trends.

Science↗

USGS2016

Leaf development and demography explain photosynthetic seasonality in Amazon evergreen forests

In evergreen tropical forests, the extent, magnitude, and controls on photosynthetic seasonality are poorly resolved and inadequately represented in Earth system models. Combining camera observations with ecosystem carbon dioxide fluxes at forests across rainfall gradients in Amazônia, we show that aggregate canopy phenology, not seasonality of climate drivers, is the primary cause of photosynthetic seasonality in these forests. Specifically, synchronization of new leaf growth with dry season litterfall shifts canopy composition toward younger, more light-use efficient leaves, explaining large seasonal increases (~27%) in ecosystem photosynthesis. Coordinated leaf development and demography thus reconcile seemingly disparate observations at different scales and indicate that accounting for leaf-level phenology is critical for accurately simulating ecosystem-scale responses to climate change.

Science↗