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USGS2010

Ground-motion modeling of Hayward fault scenario earthquakes, part I: Construction of the suite of scenarios

We construct kinematic earthquake rupture models for a suite of 39 M w 6.6-7.2 scenario earthquakes involving the Hayward, Calaveras, and Rodgers Creek faults. We use these rupture models in 3D ground-motion simulations as discussed in Part II (Aagaard et al. , 2010) to provide detailed estimates of the shaking for each scenario. We employ both geophysical constraints and empirical relations to provide realistic variation in the rupture dimensions, slip heterogeneity, hypocenters, rupture speeds, and rise times. The five rupture lengths include portions of the Hayward fault as well as combined rupture of the Hayward and Rodgers Creek faults and the Hayward and Calaveras faults. We vary rupture directivity using multiple hypocenters, typically three per rupture length, yielding north-to-south rupture, bilateral rupture, and south-to-north rupture. For each rupture length and hypocenter, we consider multiple random distributions of slip. We use two approaches to account for how aseismic creep might reduce coseismic slip. For one subset of scenarios, we follow the slip-predictable approach and reduce the nominal slip in creeping regions according to the creep rate and time since the most recent earthquake, whereas for another subset of scenarios we apply a vertical gradient to the nominal slip in creeping regions. The rupture models include local variations in rupture speed and use a ray-tracing algorithm to propagate the rupture front. Although we are not attempting to simulate the 1868 Hayward fault earthquake in detail, a few of the scenarios are designed to have source parameters that might be similar to this historical event.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2010

Reply to “Comment on ‘Is There a Basis for Preferring Characteristic Earthquakes over a Gutenberg–Richter Distribution in Probabilistic Earthquake Forecasting?’ by Tom Parsons and Eric L. Geist” by Jens-Uwe Klügel

The focus of Parsons and Geist (2009) was to test whether the key observational data used in earthquake forecasting necessitate a characteristic earthquake rupture model. The point of our article was not to suggest that a specific form of the Gutenberg–Richter earthquake distribution is a perfect representation of reality. The uncertainties surrounding event slip estimates, paleoseismic event rates, and observed a and b values in catalog magnitude–frequency distributions are broad. So broad, in fact, that giving full weight to just one model of earthquake rupture behavior in formal forecasting is unjustified. Further, the characteristic earthquake model requires definition of rupture segments, which introduces a series of unquantifiable uncertainties that are seldom addressed in forecasts (e.g., Field et al., 2009).

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2010

Reply to “Comment on ‘Near-surface location, geometry, and velocities of the Santa Monica fault zone, Los Angeles, California’ by R. D. Catchings, G. Gandhok, M. R. Goldman, D. Okaya, M. J. Rymer, and G. W. Bawden” by T. L. Pratt and J. F. Dolan

In a comment on our 2008 paper (Catchings, Gandhok, et al. , 2008) on the Santa Monica fault in Los Angeles, California, Pratt and Dolan (2010) (herein referred to as P&D) cite numerous objections to our work, inferring that our study is flawed. However, as shown in our reply, their objections contradict their own published works, published works of others, and proven seismic methodologies. Rather than responding to each repeated invalid objection, we address their objections by topic in the subsequent sections. In Catchings, Gandhok, et al. (2008), we presented high-resolution seismic-reflection images that showed two near-surface faults in the upper 50 m beneath the grounds of the Wadsworth Veterans Administration Hospital (WVAH). Although P&D suggest we effectively duplicated their seismic acquisition, our survey was not a duplication of their efforts. Rather, we conducted a seismic-imaging survey over a similar profile as Pratt et al. (1998) but used a different data acquisition system and different data processing methods to evaluate methods of seismically imaging blind faults in the wake of the 17 January 1994 M 6.7 Northridge earthquake. We used an acquisition method that provides both tomographic seismic velocities and reflection images. Our combined-data approach allowed for shallower imaging (∼2.5 m minimum) than the ∼20-m minimum of Pratt et al. (1998), clearer images of the fault zone, and more accurate depth determinations (rather than time images). In processing the reflection images, we used prestack depth migration, which is generally accepted as the only proper imaging method for imaging subsurface structures with strong lateral velocity variations (Versteeg, 1993), a condition shown to exist at the WVAH site. We correlated our reflection images with refraction tomography images, borehole lithology, and velocity data, Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar images, and changes in groundwater depths. Except for some minor differences, our seismic-reflection images coincide with previously published seismic-reflection images by Dolan and Pratt (1997) and Pratt et al. (1998), and a paleoseismic study by Dolan et al. (2000). Principal differences among our interpretations and those of Pratt et al. (1998) relate to the upper 20 m and the south side of the fault, which Pratt et al. (1998) did not clearly image. In contrast, our seismic images included structures on both sides of the fault zone from about 2.5 m depth to about 100 m depth at WVAH, allowing us to interpret more details.

California↗
USGS2010

Normal-faulting slip maxima and stress-drop variability: A geological perspective

We present an empirical estimate of maximum slip in continental normal-faulting earthquakes and present evidence that stress drop in intraplate extensional environments is dependent on fault maturity. A survey of reported slip in historical earthquakes globally and in latest Quaternary paleoearthquakes in the Western Cordillera of the United States indicates maximum vertical displacements as large as 6–6.5 m. A difference in the ratio of maximum-to-mean displacements between data sets of prehistoric and historical earthquakes, together with constraints on bias in estimates of mean paleodisplacement, suggest that applying a correction factor of 1.4±0.3 to the largest observed displacement along a paleorupture may provide a reasonable estimate of the maximum displacement. Adjusting the largest paleodisplacements in our regional data set (∼6 m) by a factor of 1.4 yields a possible upper-bound vertical displacement for the Western Cordillera of about 8.4 m, although a smaller correction factor may be more appropriate for the longest ruptures. Because maximum slip is highly localized along strike, if such large displacements occur, they are extremely rare. Static stress drop in surface-rupturing earthquakes in the Western Cordillera, as represented by maximum reported displacement as a fraction of modeled rupture length, appears to be larger on normal faults with low cumulative geologic displacement (<2 km) and larger in regions such as the Rocky Mountains, where immature, low-throw faults are concentrated. This conclusion is consistent with a growing recognition that structural development influences stress drop and indicates that this influence is significant enough to be evident among faults within a single intraplate environment.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2010

Surface-wave potential for triggering tectonic (nonvolcanic) tremor

Source processes commonly posed to explain instances of remote dynamic triggering of tectonic (nonvolcanic) tremor by surface waves include frictional failure and various modes of fluid activation. The relative potential for Love- and Rayleigh-wave dynamic stresses to trigger tectonic tremor through failure on critically stressed thrust and vertical strike-slip faults under the Coulomb-Griffith failure criteria as a function of incidence angle is anticorrelated over the 15- to 30-km-depth range that hosts tectonic tremor. Love-wave potential is high for strike-parallel incidence on low-angle reverse faults and null for strike-normal incidence; the opposite holds for Rayleigh waves. Love-wave potential is high for both strike-parallel and strike-normal incidence on vertical, strike-slip faults and minimal for ~45?? incidence angles. The opposite holds for Rayleigh waves. This pattern is consistent with documented instances of tremor triggered by Love waves incident on the Cascadia mega-thrust and the San Andreas fault (SAF) in central California resulting from shear failure on weak faults (apparent friction, ????? 0.2). However, documented instances of tremor triggered by surface waves with strike-parallel incidence along the Nankai megathrust beneath Shikoku, Japan, is associated primarily with Rayleigh waves. This is consistent with the tremor bursts resulting from mixed-mode failure (crack opening and shear failure) facilitated by near-lithostatic ambient pore pressure, low differential stress, with a moderate friction coefficient (?? ~ 0.6) on the Nankai subduction interface. Rayleigh-wave dilatational stress is relatively weak at tectonic tremor source depths and seems unlikely to contribute significantly to the triggering process, except perhaps for an indirect role on the SAF in sustaining tremor into the Rayleigh-wave coda that was initially triggered by Love waves.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2010

Variable-period surface-wave magnitudes: A rapid and robust estimator of seismic moments

We demonstrate that surface-wave magnitudes (Ms), measured at local, regional, and teleseismic distances, can be used as a rapid and robust estimator of seismic moment magnitude (Mw). We used the Russell (2006) variable-period surface-wave magnitude formula, henceforth called Ms(VMAX), to estimate the Ms for 165 North American events with 3.2 <Mw < 6.5 at distances ranging from 48 to 5268 km. Of the 7370 event-station pairs, more than half (4051) of the measurements were at distances less than 1000 km. Mw estimated from broadband waveform modeling (Herrmann et al., 2008) were regressed against Ms(VMAX). Mw can be estimated from Ms (VMAX) using the relationship: Mw = 1.91 + 0.66Msx (VMAX) for 2 <Ms < 6. The observed scatter of the Mw[Ms(VMAX)] with respect to Mw[Waveform Modeling] was approximately ??0.2 magnitude units (m.u). The residuals between Mw [Ms(VMAX)] and Mw [Waveform Modeling] show a significant focal mechanism effect, especially when strike-slip events are compared with other mechanisms. Validation testing of this method suggests that Ms(VMAX)-predicted Mw's can be estimated within minutes after the origin of an event and are typically within ??0.2 m.u. of the final Mw[Waveform Modeling]. While Mw estimated from Ms(VMAX) has a slightly higher variance than waveform modeling results, it can be measured on the first short-period surface-wave observed at a local or near-regional distance seismic station after a preliminary epicentral location has been formed. Therefore, it may be used to make rapid measurements of Mw, which are needed by government agencies for early warning systems.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2011

Nonlinear site response in medium magnitude earthquakes near Parkfield, California

Careful analysis of strong-motion recordings of 13 medium magnitude earthquakes (3.7 &le; M &le; 6.5) in the Parkfield, California, area shows that very modest levels of shaking (approximately 3.5% of the acceleration of gravity) can produce observable changes in site response. Specifically, I observe a drop and subsequent recovery of the resonant frequency at sites that are part of the USGS Parkfield dense seismograph array (UPSAR) and Turkey Flat array. While further work is necessary to fully eliminate other models, given that these frequency shifts correlate with the strength of shaking at the Turkey Flat array and only appear for the strongest shaking levels at UPSAR, the most plausible explanation for them is that they are a result of nonlinear site response. Assuming this to be true, the observation of nonlinear site response in small ( M <5) earthquakes implies that nonlinear site response can occur at much lower levels of shaking than previously believed. Below I present observations of a resonant frequency shift during five M &le; 5 earthquakes near Parkfield, California, strongly contrasting with previous studies that have only identified nonlinear site effects for much larger events. In addition to the nonlinear effects seen for the smaller events, nonlinear site response is also observed for two largest earthquakes in the region during the study period (the 2003 M 6.5 San Simeon earthquake and the 2004 M 6 Parkfield earthquake).

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2010

Orientation-independent, nongeometric-mean measures of seismic intensity from two horizontal components of motion

New measures of spectral intensity based on the horizontal components of ground shaking are introduced. These new measures are independent of the in situ orientation of the recordings and encompass the full range of spectral amplitudes over all possible rotation angles. Unlike previously introduced measures that are also orientation independent, no geometric means are used in the computation of the new measures. The new measures based on fiftieth percentile values of the response spectra show small but systematic increases (to a factor of about 1.07 at a 10 sec period) compared to the comparable geometric-mean measure.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2010

Precise estimation of repeating earthquake moment: Example from parkfield, california

We offer a new method for estimating the relative size of repeating earthquakes using the singular value decomposition (SVD). This method takes advantage of the highly coherent waveforms of repeating earthquakes and arrives at far more precise and accurate descriptions of earthquake size than standard catalog techniques allow. We demonstrate that uncertainty in relative moment estimates is reduced from ??75% for standard coda-duration techniques employed by the network to an uncertainty of ??6.6% when the SVD method is used. This implies that a single-station estimate of moment using the SVD method has far less uncertainty than the whole-network estimates of moment based on coda duration. The SVD method offers a significant improvement in our ability to describe the size of repeating earthquakes and thus an opportunity to better understand how they accommodate slip as a function of time.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2011

The 2007 Nazko, British Columbia, earthquake sequence: Injection of magma deep in the crust beneath the Anahim volcanic belt

On 9 October 2007, an unusual sequence of earthquakes began in central British Columbia about 20 km west of the Nazko cone, the most recent (circa 7200 yr) volcanic center in the Anahim volcanic belt. Within 25 hr, eight earthquakes of magnitude 2.3-2.9 occurred in a region where no earthquakes had previously been recorded. During the next three weeks, more than 800 microearthquakes were located (and many more detected), most at a depth of 25-31 km and within a radius of about 5 km. After about two months, almost all activity ceased. The clear P- and S-wave arrivals indicated that these were high-frequency (volcanic-tectonic) earthquakes and the b value of 1.9 that we calculated is anomalous for crustal earthquakes but consistent with volcanic-related events. Analysis of receiver functions at a station immediately above the seismicity indicated a Moho near 30 km depth. Precise relocation of the seismicity using a double-difference method suggested a horizontal migration at the rate of about 0:5 km=d, with almost all events within the lowermost crust. Neither harmonic tremor nor long-period events were observed; however, some spasmodic bursts were recorded and determined to be colocated with the earthquake hypocenters. These observations are all very similar to a deep earthquake sequence recorded beneath Lake Tahoe, California, in 2003-2004. Based on these remarkable similarities, we interpret the Nazko sequence as an indication of an injection of magma into the lower crust beneath the Anahim volcanic belt. This magma injection fractures rock, producing high-frequency, volcanic-tectonic earthquakes and spasmodic bursts.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2011

Fault displacement hazard for strike-slip faults

In this paper we present a methodology, data, and regression equations for calculating the fault rupture hazard at sites near steeply dipping, strike-slip faults. We collected and digitized on-fault and off-fault displacement data for 9 global strikeslip earthquakes ranging from moment magnitude M 6.5 to M 7.6 and supplemented these with displacements from 13 global earthquakes compiled byWesnousky (2008), who considers events up to M 7.9. Displacements on the primary fault fall off at the rupture ends and are often measured in meters, while displacements on secondary (offfault) or distributed faults may measure a few centimeters up to more than a meter and decay with distance from the rupture. Probability of earthquake rupture is less than 15% for cells 200 m??200 m and is less than 2% for 25 m??25 m cells at distances greater than 200mfrom the primary-fault rupture. Therefore, the hazard for off-fault ruptures is much lower than the hazard near the fault. Our data indicate that rupture displacements up to 35cm can be triggered on adjacent faults at distances out to 10kmor more from the primary-fault rupture. An example calculation shows that, for an active fault which has repeated large earthquakes every few hundred years, fault rupture hazard analysis should be an important consideration in the design of structures or lifelines that are located near the principal fault, within about 150 m of well-mapped active faults with a simple trace and within 300 m of faults with poorly defined or complex traces.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2010

Laboratory-based maximum slip rates in earthquake rupture zones and radiated energy

Laboratory stick-slip friction experiments indicate that peak slip rates increase with the stresses loading the fault to cause rupture. If this applies also to earthquake fault zones, then the analysis of rupture processes is simplified inasmuch as the slip rates depend only on the local yield stress and are independent of factors specific to a particular event, including the distribution of slip in space and time. We test this hypothesis by first using it to develop an expression for radiated energy that depends primarily on the seismic moment and the maximum slip rate. From laboratory results, the maximum slip rate for any crustal earthquake, as well as various stress parameters including the yield stress, can be determined based on its seismic moment and the maximum slip within its rupture zone. After finding that our new equation for radiated energy works well for laboratory stick-slip friction experiments, we used it to estimate radiated energies for five earthquakes with magnitudes near 2 that were induced in a deep gold mine, an M 2.1 repeating earthquake near the San Andreas Fault Observatory at Depth (SAFOD) site and seven major earthquakes in California and found good agreement with energies estimated independently from spectra of local and regional ground-motion data. Estimates of yield stress for the earthquakes in our study range from 12 MPa to 122 MPa with a median of 64 MPa. The lowest value was estimated for the 2004 M 6 Parkfield, California, earthquake whereas the nearby M 2.1 repeating earthquake, as recorded in the SAFOD pilot hole, showed a more typical yield stress of 64 MPa.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2011

San Andreas fault earthquake chronology and Lake Cahuilla history at Coachella, California

The southernmost ~100 km of the San Andreas fault has not ruptured historically. It is imperative to determine its rupture history to better predict its future behavior. This paleoseismic investigation in Coachella, California, establishes a chronology of at least five and up to seven major earthquakes during the past ~1100 yr. This chronology yields a range of average recurrence intervals between 116 and 221 yr, depending on assumptions, with a best-estimate average recurrence interval of 180 yr. The most recent earthquake occurred c.1690, more than 300 yr ago, suggesting that this stretch of the fault has accumulated a large amount of tectonic stress and is likely to rupture in the near future, assuming the fault follows a stress renewal model. This study also establishes the timing of the past 5-6 highstands of ancient Lake Cahuilla since A.D. 800.We found that earthquakes do not tend to occur at any particular stage in the lake cycle.

California↗
USGS2010

Broadband ground-motion simulation using a hybrid approach

This paper describes refinements to the hybrid broadband ground-motion simulation methodology of Graves and Pitarka (2004), which combines a deterministic approach at low frequencies (f< 1 Hz) with a semistochastic approach at high frequencies (f> 1 Hz). In our approach, fault rupture is represented kinematically and incorporates spatial heterogeneity in slip, rupture speed, and rise time. The prescribed slip distribution is constrained to follow an inverse wavenumber-squared fall-off and the average rupture speed is set at 80% of the local shear-wave velocity, which is then adjusted such that the rupture propagates faster in regions of high slip and slower in regions of low slip. We use a Kostrov-like slip-rate function having a rise time proportional to the square root of slip, with the average rise time across the entire fault constrained empirically. Recent observations from large surface rupturing earthquakes indicate a reduction of rupture propagation speed and lengthening of rise time in the near surface, which we model by applying a 70% reduction of the rupture speed and increasing the rise time by a factor of 2 in a zone extending from the surface to a depth of 5 km. We demonstrate the fidelity of the technique by modeling the strong-motion recordings from the Imperial Valley, Loma Prieta, Landers, and Northridge earthquakes.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2010

A revised ground-motion and intensity interpolation scheme for shakemap

We describe a weighted-average approach for incorporating various types of data (observed peak ground motions and intensities and estimates from groundmotion prediction equations) into the ShakeMap ground motion and intensity mapping framework. This approach represents a fundamental revision of our existing ShakeMap methodology. In addition, the increased availability of near-real-time macroseismic intensity data, the development of newrelationships between intensity and peak ground motions, and new relationships to directly predict intensity from earthquake source information have facilitated the inclusion of intensity measurements directly into ShakeMap computations. Our approach allows for the combination of (1) direct observations (ground-motion measurements or reported intensities), (2) observations converted from intensity to ground motion (or vice versa), and (3) estimated ground motions and intensities from prediction equations or numerical models. Critically, each of the aforementioned data types must include an estimate of its uncertainties, including those caused by scaling the influence of observations to surrounding grid points and those associated with estimates given an unknown fault geometry. The ShakeMap ground-motion and intensity estimates are an uncertainty-weighted combination of these various data and estimates. A natural by-product of this interpolation process is an estimate of total uncertainty at each point on the map, which can be vital for comprehensive inventory loss calculations. We perform a number of tests to validate this new methodology and find that it produces a substantial improvement in the accuracy of ground-motion predictions over empirical prediction equations alone.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2011

A Comparison of seismic instrument noise coherence analysis techniques

The self-noise of a seismic instrument is a fundamental characteristic used to evaluate the quality of the instrument. It is important to be able to measure this self-noise robustly, to understand how differences among test configurations affect the tests, and to understand how different processing techniques and isolation methods (from nonseismic sources) can contribute to differences in results. We compare two popular coherence methods used for calculating incoherent noise, which is widely used as an estimate of instrument self-noise (incoherent noise and self-noise are not strictly identical but in observatory practice are approximately equivalent; Holcomb, 1989; Sleeman et al., 2006). Beyond directly comparing these two coherence methods on similar models of seismometers, we compare how small changes in test conditions can contribute to incoherent-noise estimates. These conditions include timing errors, signal-to-noise ratio changes (ratios between background noise and instrument incoherent noise), relative sensor locations, misalignment errors, processing techniques, and different configurations of sensor types.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗