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At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources
USGS2023

Mortality thresholds of juvenile trees to drought and heatwaves: Implications for forest regeneration across a landscape gradient

Tree loss is increasing rapidly due to drought- and heat-related mortality and intensifying fire activity. Consequently, the fate of many forests depends on the ability of juvenile trees to withstand heightened climate and disturbance anomalies. Extreme climatic events, such as droughts and heatwaves, are increasing in frequency and severity, and trees in mountainous regions must contend with these landscape-level climate episodes. Recent research focuses on how mortality of individual tree species may be driven by drought and heatwaves, but how juvenile mortality under these conditions would vary among species spanning an elevational gradient—given concurrent variation in climate, ecohydrology, and physiology–remains unclear. We address this knowledge gap by implementing a growth chamber study, imposing extreme drought with and without a compounding heatwave, for juveniles of five species that span a forested life zones in the Southwestern United States. Overall, the length of a progressive drought required to trigger mortality differed by up to 20 weeks among species. Inclusion of a heatwave hastened mean time to mortality for all species by about 1 week. Lower-elevation species that grow in warmer ambient conditions died earlier ( Pinus ponderosa in 10 weeks, Pinus edulis in 14 weeks) than did higher-elevation species from cooler ambient conditions ( Picea engelmannii and Pseudotsuga menziesii in 19 weeks, and Pinus flexilis in 30 weeks). When exposed to a heatwave in conjunction with drought, mortality advanced significantly only for species from cooler ambient conditions ( Pinus flexilis : 2.7 weeks earlier; Pseudotsuga menziesii : 2.0 weeks earlier). Cooler ambient temperatures may have buffered against moisture loss during drought, resulting in longer survival of higher-elevation species despite expected drought tolerance of lower-elevation species due to tree physiology. Our study suggests that droughts will play a leading role in juvenile tree mortality and will most directly impact species at warmer climate thresholds, with heatwaves in tandem with drought potentially exacerbating mortality especially of high elevation species. These responses are relevant for assessing the potential success of both natural and managed reforestation, as differential juvenile survival following episodic extreme events will determine future landscape-scale vegetation trajectories under changing climate.

Frontiers in Forests and Global Change↗
USGS2015

On underestimation of global vulnerability to tree mortality and forest die-off from hotter drought in the Anthropocene

Patterns, mechanisms, projections, and consequences of tree mortality and associated broad-scale forest die-off due to drought accompanied by warmer temperatures—“hotter drought”, an emerging characteristic of the Anthropocene—are the focus of rapidly expanding literature. Despite recent observational, experimental, and modeling studies suggesting increased vulnerability of trees to hotter drought and associated pests and pathogens, substantial debate remains among research, management and policy-making communities regarding future tree mortality risks. We summarize key mortality-relevant findings, differentiating between those implying lesser versus greater levels of vulnerability. Evidence suggesting lesser vulnerability includes forest benefits of elevated [CO 2 ] and increased water-use efficiency; observed and modeled increases in forest growth and canopy greening; widespread increases in woody-plant biomass, density, and extent; compensatory physiological, morphological, and genetic mechanisms; dampening ecological feedbacks; and potential mitigation by forest management. In contrast, recent studies document more rapid mortality under hotter drought due to negative tree physiological responses and accelerated biotic attacks. Additional evidence suggesting greater vulnerability includes rising background mortality rates; projected increases in drought frequency, intensity, and duration; limitations of vegetation models such as inadequately represented mortality processes; warming feedbacks from die-off; and wildfire synergies. Grouping these findings we identify ten contrasting perspectives that shape the vulnerability debate but have not been discussed collectively. We also present a set of global vulnerability drivers that are known with high confidence: (1) droughts eventually occur everywhere; (2) warming produces hotter droughts; (3) atmospheric moisture demand increases nonlinearly with temperature during drought; (4) mortality can occur faster in hotter drought, consistent with fundamental physiology; (5) shorter droughts occur more frequently than longer droughts and can become lethal under warming, increasing the frequency of lethal drought nonlinearly; and (6) mortality happens rapidly relative to growth intervals needed for forest recovery. These high-confidence drivers, in concert with research supporting greater vulnerability perspectives, support an overall viewpoint of greater forest vulnerability globally. We surmise that mortality vulnerability is being discounted in part due to difficulties in predicting threshold responses to extreme climate events. Given the profound ecological and societal implications of underestimating global vulnerability to hotter drought, we highlight urgent challenges for research, management, and policy-making communities.

Ecosphere↗
USGS2007

Interactions across spatial scales among forest dieback, fire, and erosion in northern New Mexico landscapes

Ecosystem patterns and disturbance processes at one spatial scale often interact with processes at another scale, and the result of such cross-scale interactions can be nonlinear dynamics with thresholds. Examples of cross-scale pattern-process relationships and interactions among forest dieback, fire, and erosion are illustrated from northern New Mexico (USA) landscapes, where long-term studies have recently documented all of these disturbance processes. For example, environmental stress, operating on individual trees, can cause tree death that is amplified by insect mortality agents to propagate to patch and then landscape or even regional-scale forest dieback. Severe drought and unusual warmth in the southwestern USA since the late 1990s apparently exceeded species-specific physiological thresholds for multiple tree species, resulting in substantial vegetation mortality across millions of hectares of woodlands and forests in recent years. Predictions of forest dieback across spatial scales are constrained by uncertainties associated with: limited knowledge of species-specific physiological thresholds; individual and site-specific variation in these mortality thresholds; and positive feedback loops between rapidly-responding insect herbivore populations and their stressed plant hosts, sometimes resulting in nonlinear “pest” outbreak dynamics. Fire behavior also exhibits nonlinearities across spatial scales, illustrated by changes in historic fire regimes where patch-scale grazing disturbance led to regional-scale collapse of surface fire activity and subsequent recent increases in the scale of extreme fire events in New Mexico. Vegetation dieback interacts with fire activity by modifying fuel amounts and configurations at multiple spatial scales. Runoff and erosion processes are also subject to scale-dependent threshold behaviors, exemplified by ecohydrological work in semiarid New Mexico watersheds showing how declines in ground surface cover lead to non-linear increases in bare patch connectivity and thereby accelerated runoff and erosion at hillslope and watershed scales. Vegetation dieback, grazing, and fire can change land surface properties and cross-scale hydrologic connectivities, directly altering ecohydrological patterns of runoff and erosion. The interactions among disturbance processes across spatial scales can be key drivers in ecosystem dynamics, as illustrated by these studies of recent landscape changes in northern New Mexico. To better anticipate and mitigate accelerating human impacts to the planetary ecosystem at all spatial scales, improvements are needed in our conceptual and quantitative understanding of cross-scale interactions among disturbance processes.

New Mexico↗
USGS2014

Forest stand structure, productivity, and age mediate climatic effects on aspen decline

Because forest stand structure, age, and productivity can mediate the impacts of climate on quaking aspen ( Populus tremuloides ) mortality, ignoring stand-scale factors limits inference on the drivers of recent sudden aspen decline. Using the proportion of aspen trees that were dead as an index of recent mortality at 841 forest inventory plots, we examined the relationship of this mortality index to forest structure and climate in the Rocky Mountains and Intermountain Western United States. We found that forest structure explained most of the patterns in mortality indices, but that variation in growing-season vapor pressure deficit and winter precipitation over the last 20 years was important. Mortality index sensitivity to precipitation was highest in forests where aspen exhibited high densities, relative basal areas, quadratic mean diameters, and productivities, whereas sensitivity to vapor pressure deficit was highest in young forest stands. These results indicate that the effects of drought on mortality may be mediated by forest stand development, competition with encroaching conifers, and physiological vulnerabilities of large trees to drought. By examining mortality index responses to both forest structure and climate, we show that forest succession cannot be ignored in studies attempting to understand the causes and consequences of sudden aspen decline.

Ecology↗
USGS2015

Sea level and turbidity controls on mangrove soil surface elevation change

Increases in sea level are a threat to seaward fringing mangrove forests if levels of inundation exceed the physiological tolerance of the trees; however, tidal wetlands can keep pace with sea level rise if soil surface elevations can increase at the same pace as sea level rise. Sediment accretion on the soil surface and belowground production of roots are proposed to increase with increasing sea level, enabling intertidal habitats to maintain their position relative to mean sea level, but there are few tests of these predictions in mangrove forests. Here we used variation in sea level and the availability of sediments caused by seasonal and inter-annual variation in the intensity of La Nina-El Nino to assess the effects of increasing sea level on surface elevation gains and contributing processes (accretion on the surface, subsidence and root growth) in mangrove forests. We found that soil surface elevation increased with mean sea level (which varied over 250 mm during the study) and with turbidity at sites where fine sediment in the water column is abundant. In contrast, where sediments were sandy, rates of surface elevation gain were high, but not significantly related to variation in turbidity, and were likely to be influenced by other factors that deliver sand to the mangrove forest. Root growth was not linked to soil surface elevation gains, although it was associated with reduced shallow subsidence, and therefore may contribute to the capacity of mangroves to keep pace with sea level rise. Our results indicate both surface (sedimentation) and subsurface (root growth) processes can influence mangrove capacity to keep pace with sea level rise within the same geographic location, and that current models of tidal marsh responses to sea level rise capture the major feature of the response of mangroves where fine, but not coarse, sediments are abundant.

Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science↗
USGS2007

Tidal freshwater forested wetlands: Future research needs and an overview of restoration: Chapter 17

Studies of tidal freshwater forested wetlands are few in contrast to the diversity of conditions and information needs that exist for this ecosystem type. Basic information is lacking on the physiological ecology of major wetland tree species under natural settings, the structure and dynamics of pure and mixed species communities, soil-plant interactions, biogeochemistry, hydrology, soils, wildlife habitat, primary biotic and abiotic functions, and the response of these systems to natural and human-caused disruptions. Existing information is often not in a form that can be applied to ecosystem problems, especially those related to management, restoration, or creation of tidal swamps. Accordingly, there is a critical need for research on fundamental biotic and abiotic processes and functions in tidal forested wetland landscapes on a local and regional scale. In this chapter, we detail those research needs, and we highlight some restoration ideas for tidal freshwater forested wetlands with the hope that much additional research will follow.

Book chapter↗
USGS2013

Climatic stress increases forest fire severity across the western United States

Pervasive warming can lead to chronic stress on forest trees, which may contribute to mortality resulting from fire-caused injuries. Longitudinal analyses of forest plots from across the western US show that high pre-fire climatic water deficit was related to increased post-fire tree mortality probabilities. This relationship between climate and fire was present after accounting for fire defences and injuries, and appeared to influence the effects of crown and stem injuries. Climate and fire interactions did not vary substantially across geographical regions, major genera and tree sizes. Our findings support recent physiological evidence showing that both drought and heating from fire can impair xylem conductivity. Warming trends have been linked to increasing probabilities of severe fire weather and fire spread; our results suggest that warming may also increase forest fire severity (the number of trees killed) independent of fire intensity (the amount of heat released during a fire).

Ecology Letters↗
USGS2010

A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests

Greenhouse gas emissions have significantly altered global climate, and will continue to do so in the future. Increases in the frequency, duration, and/or severity of drought and heat stress associated with climate change could fundamentally alter the composition, structure, and biogeography of forests in many regions. Of particular concern are potential increases in tree mortality associated with climate-induced physiological stress and interactions with other climate-mediated processes such as insect outbreaks and wildfire. Despite this risk, existing projections of tree mortality are based on models that lack functionally realistic mortality mechanisms, and there has been no attempt to track observations of climate-driven tree mortality globally. Here we present the first global assessment of recent tree mortality attributed to drought and heat stress. Although episodic mortality occurs in the absence of climate change, studies compiled here suggest that at least some of the world's forested ecosystems already may be responding to climate change and raise concern that forests may become increasingly vulnerable to higher background tree mortality rates and die-off in response to future warming and drought, even in environments that are not normally considered water-limited. This further suggests risks to ecosystem services, including the loss of sequestered forest carbon and associated atmospheric feedbacks. Our review also identifies key information gaps and scientific uncertainties that currently hinder our ability to predict tree mortality in response to climate change and emphasizes the need for a globally coordinated observation system. Overall, our review reveals the potential for amplified tree mortality due to drought and heat in forests worldwide.

Forest Ecology and Management↗
USGS2002

Dieback of Acacia koa in Hawaii: Ecological and pathological characteristics of affected stands

Koa (Acacia koa) is an endemic Hawaiian tree that serves as a keystone species in the upper elevation forests of all the main islands. In the Mauna Loa Strip area of Hawaii Volcanoes National Park, mature koa stands are suffering from an unexplained dieback that has increased in severity since it was first noticed approximately 25 years ago. The dieback is often evident in patches, and generally spreads within stands in a radial fashion from a localized infection center. Entire crowns of affected trees become wilted, with foliage gradually progressing from an apparent healthy to a completely chlorotic condition. Although most trees die soon after the onset of symptoms, some trees are able to survive crown death by producing epicormic shoots on the lower portions of the trunk. Previously published studies reported that a vascular wilt fungus (Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. koae) was associated with koa seeds and the rhizosphere of healthy and dieback-affected koa stands. The purpose of this study was to characterize the stand structure, soil conditions, and physiological condition of dieback-affected trees, and to assess the possible role of F. oxysporum f. sp. koae in the current dieback stands. This fungus was isolated from branches of symptomatic koa in dieback-affected stands and roots from healthy and dieback-affected stands. Possible differences in the pathogenicity and virulence of F. oxysporum f. sp. koae isolates obtained from the roots of healthy koa in unaffected stands and those from branches of dieback-affected koa were determined by greenhouse inoculations of koa seedlings. Healthy koa saplings in stands unaffected by dieback were also inoculated to determine if disease symptoms could be induced by inoculation of injured roots in the field. Both branch and root isolates were pathogenic; with the percent mortality of inoculated seedlings ranging from 30 to 60% for all isolates. Disease severity between branch and root isolates was not significantly different. Wilt symptoms were not observed in field inoculations of koa saplings after 8 months. Investigation of the dieback stand structure determined that the larger size classes (i.e., DBH > 3 cm) were all affected equally, with the smallest size class (i.e., 0-3 cm DBH) having the lowest percentage of dieback at each site. Soil from dieback stands had higher water content and was more acidic than that from neighboring unaffected stands. Phyllodes on epicormic shoots of dieback trees had a reduced area, mass, and mass to area ratio. Phyllodes on dieback trees also had reduced stomatal conductance and higher (less negative) leaf water potential. Results from the greenhouse inoculations demonstrated that F. oxysporum f. sp. koae is pathogenic to koa, but the pathogen's activity in the field may be influenced by predisposing factors such as temperature fluctuations, water availability, soil type, and interactions with other soil organisms. F. oxysporum f. sp. koae appears to play an important role in regulating koa stand dynamics, growth, and physiology under environmental and edaphic conditions favorable for disease development. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Forest Ecology and Management↗
USGS1994

Prospects for increasing the salt tolerance of forest trees: A review

Three major themes related to the improvement of salt tolerance in forest tree species are examined. First, evidence demonstrating that substantial intraspecific variation in salt tolerance exists in many species is presented. This evidence is important because it suggests that efforts to improve salt tolerance through conventional plant breeding techniques are justified. Second, the physiological and genetic mechanisms controlling salt tolerance are discussed briefly. Although salt tolerance involves the integration of numerous physiological processes, there is considerable evidence that differences in the ability to exclude Na + and Cl - from leaves are the most important factors underlying intraspecific differences in tolerance . It is also becoming apparent that, although salt tolerance is a multigenic trait, major genes play an important role. Third, progress to date in improving salt tolerance of forest tree species is assessed. Compared with agricultural crops, relatively little progress has been made with either conventional or biotechnological methods, but field trials designed to test clones identified as salt tolerant in screening trials are underway now in several countries. We conclude that there is justification for cautious optimism about the prospects for improving salt tolerance in forest tree species. © 1994 Heron Publishing.

Tree Physiology↗
USGS2019

Perfluoroalkyl contaminant exposure in tree swallows nesting at Clarks Marsh, Oscoda, Michigan, USA

A site in north eastern Michigan, Oscoda Township, has some of the highest recorded exposure in birds to perfluorinated substances (PFASs) in the U.S. Some egg and plasma concentrations at that location exceeded the lowest reproductive effect threshold established for two avian laboratory species. The objectives of this study were to determine whether there were reproductive effects or physiological responses in a model bird species, the tree swallow (Tachycineta bicolor), associated with this extremely high exposure to PFASs. The lack of exposure above background to other contaminants at this site allowed for an assessment of PFAS effects without the complication that responses may be caused by other contaminants. A secondary objective was to determine the distribution of PFASs in multiple tissue types to better understand and interpret residues in different tissues. This can best be done at highly exposed locations where tissue concentrations would be expected to be above detectable levels if they are present in that tissue. There were no demonstrable effects of PFAS exposure on reproduction nor on most physiological responses.

Michigan↗
USGS2022

Higher temperature sensitivity of flowering than leaf-out alters the time between phenophases across temperate tree species

Aim The aims of this study were to evaluate the changes in the length of the time period between leaf-out and flowering across temperate tree species, and associate these changes with potential physiological and environmental drivers to enhance mechanistic insight into these phenomena. Location Central Europe. Time period 1980–2016. Major taxa studied Six temperate woody species. Methods Statistical analyses were carried out based on long-term ground observations of both spring leaf-out and flowering across temperate tree species during 1980–2016, a period characterized by rapid warming. Results The temperature sensitivity of flowering (−5.4 ± 0.04 days/℃, mean ± SE ) was higher than that of leaf-out (−4.6 ± 0.04 days/℃) across all species, regardless of whether leaf-out occurred before or after flowering. This study postulates a hypothesis attributing the different temperature sensitivities to different thermal sensitivities, thermal requirements, and photoperiodic controls. Main conclusions The larger temperature sensitivity of flowering than leaf-out resulted in an extended time period between flowering and leaf-out in species that bloom before leafing out, but a shorter time period between these phenophases in species with the opposite strategy. We would like to emphasize the importance of changes in time period between different phenophases, and we recommend conducting experimental research to reveal the underlying mechanisms of plant phenology response to climate change, and to explore its potential ecological implications.

Global Ecology and Biogeography↗
USGS2022

Mangroves provide blue carbon ecological value at a low freshwater cost

“Blue carbon” wetland vegetation has a limited freshwater requirement. One type, mangroves, utilizes less freshwater during transpiration than adjacent terrestrial ecoregions, equating to only 43% (average) to 57% (potential) of evapotranspiration ( E T "> E T ). Here, we demonstrate that comparative consumptive water use by mangrove vegetation is as much as 2905 kL H 2 O ha −1 year −1 less than adjacent ecoregions with E c "> E c -to- E T "> E T ratios of 47–70%. Lower porewater salinity would, however, increase mangrove E c "> E c -to- E T "> E T ratios by affecting leaf-, tree-, and stand-level eco-physiological controls on transpiration. Restricted water use is also additive to other ecosystem services provided by mangroves, such as high carbon sequestration, coastal protection and support of biodiversity within estuarine and marine environments. Low freshwater demand enables mangroves to sustain ecological values of connected estuarine ecosystems with future reductions in freshwater while not competing with the freshwater needs of humans. Conservative water use may also be a characteristic of other emergent blue carbon wetlands.

Scientific Reports↗
USGS2000

Woody riparian vegetation response to different alluvial water table regimes

Woody riparian vegetation in western North American riparian ecosystems is commonly dependent on alluvial groundwater. Various natural and anthropogenic mechanisms can cause groundwater declines that stress riparian vegetation, but little quantitative information exists on the nature of plant response to different magnitudes, rates, and durations of groundwater decline. We observed groundwater dynamics and the response of Populus fremontii, Salix gooddingii , and Tamarix ramosissima saplings at 3 sites between 1995 and 1997 along the Bill Williams River, Arizona. At a site where the lowest observed groundwater level in 1996 (-1.97 m) was 1.11 m lower than that in 1995 (-0.86 m), 92-100% of Populus and Salix saplings died, whereas 0-13% of Tamarix stems died. A site with greater absolute water table depths in 1996 (-2.55 m), but less change from the 1995 condition (0.55 m), showed less Populus and Salix mortality and increased basal area. Excavations of sapling roots suggest that root distribution is related to groundwater history. Therefore, a decline in water table relative to the condition under which roots developed may strand plant roots where they cannot obtain sufficient moisture. Plant response is likely mediated by other factors such as soil texture and stratigraphy, availability of precipitation-derived soil moisture, physiological and morphological adaptations to water stress, and tree age. An understanding of the relationships between water table declines and plant response may enable land and water managers to avoid activities that are likely to stress desirable riparian vegetation.

Western North American Naturalist↗
USGS2023

Leaf nitrogen affects photosynthesis and water use efficiency similarly in nitrogen-fixing and non-fixing trees

Nitrogen (N)-fixing trees are thought to break a basic rule of leaf economics: higher leaf N concentrations do not translate into higher rates of carbon assimilation. Understanding how leaf N affects photosynthesis and water use efficiency (WUE) in this ecologically important group is critical. We grew six N-fixing and four non-fixing tree species for 4–5 years at four fertilization treatments in field experiments in temperate and tropical regions to assess how functional type (N fixer vs. non-fixer) and N limitation affected leaf N and how leaf N affected light-saturated photosynthesis ( A sat ), stomatal conductance ( g sw ) and WUE (WUE i and δ 13 C). A sat , WUE i and δ 13 C, but not g sw , increased with higher leaf N. Surprisingly, N-fixing and non-fixing trees displayed similar scaling between leaf N and these physiological variables, and this finding was supported by reanalysis of a global dataset. N fixers generally had higher leaf N than non-fixers, even when non-fixers were not N-limited at the leaf level. Leaf-level N limitation did not alter the relationship of A sat , g sw , WUE i and δ 13 C with leaf N, although it did affect the photosynthetic N use efficiency. Higher WUE was associated with higher productivity, whereas higher A sat was not. Synthesis : The ecological success of N-fixing trees depends on the effect of leaf N on carbon gain and water loss. Using a field fertilization experiment and reanalysis of a global dataset, we show that high leaf-level photosynthesis and WUE in N fixers stems from their higher average leaf N, rather than a difference between N fixers and non-fixers in the scaling of photosynthesis and WUE with leaf N. By clarifying the mechanism by which N fixers achieve and benefit from high WUE, our results further the understanding of global N fixer distributions.

Journal of Ecology↗
USGS2021

Is there tree senescence? The fecundity evidence

Despite its importance for forest regeneration, food webs, and human economies, changes in tree fecundity with tree size and age remain largely unknown. The allometric increase with tree diameter assumed in ecological models would substantially overestimate seed contributions from large trees if fecundity eventually declines with size. Current estimates are dominated by overrepresentation of small trees in regression models. We combined global fecundity data, including a substantial representation of large trees. We compared size–fecundity relationships against traditional allometric scaling with diameter and two models based on crown architecture. All allometric models fail to describe the declining rate of increase in fecundity with diameter found for 80% of 597 species in our analysis. The strong evidence of declining fecundity, beyond what can be explained by crown architectural change, is consistent with physiological decline. A downward revision of projected fecundity of large trees can improve the next generation of forest dynamic models.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences↗
USGS2001

Monitoring the effect of poplar trees on petroleum-hydrocarbon and chlorinated-solvent contaminated ground water

At contaminated groundwater sites, poplar trees can be used to affect ground-water levels, flow directions, and ultimately total groundwater and contaminant flux to areas downgradient of the trees. The magnitude of the hydrologic changes can be monitored using fundamental concepts of groundwater hydrology, in addition to plant physiology-based approaches, and can be viewed as being almost independent of the contaminant released. The affect of poplar trees on the fate of groundwater contaminants, however, is contaminant dependent. Some petroleum hydrocarbons or chlorinated solvents may be mineralized or transformed to innocuous compounds by rhizospheric bacteria associated with the tree roots, mineralized or transformed by plant tissues in the transpiration stream or leaves after uptake, or passively volatilized and rapidly dispersed or oxidized in the atmosphere. These processes also can be monitored using a combination of physiological- or geochemical-based field or laboratory approaches. When combined, such hydrologic and contaminant monitoring approaches can result in a more accurate assessment of the use of poplar trees to meet regulatory goals at contaminated groundwater sites, verify that these goals continue to be met in the future, and ultimately lead to a consensus on how the performance of plant-based remedial strategies (phytoremediation) is to be assessed.

International Journal of Phytoremediation↗
USGS2018

Fire and tree death: Understanding and improving modeling of fire-induced tree mortality

Each year wildland fires kill and injure trees on millions of forested hectares globally, affecting plant and animal biodiversity, carbon storage, hydrologic processes, and ecosystem services. The underlying mechanisms of fire-caused tree mortality remain poorly understood, however, limiting the ability to accurately predict mortality and develop robust modeling applications, especially under novel future climates. Virtually all post-fire tree mortality prediction systems are based on the same underlying empirical model described in Ryan and Reinhardt (1988 Can. J. For. Res. 18 1291–7), which was developed from a limited number of species, stretching model assumptions beyond intended limits. We review the current understanding of the mechanisms of fire-induced tree mortality, provide recommended standardized terminology, describe model applications and limitations, and conclude with key knowledge gaps and future directions for research. We suggest a two-pronged approach to future research: (1) continued improvements and evaluations of empirical models to quantify uncertainty and incorporate new regions and species and (2) acceleration of basic, physiological research on the proximate and ultimate causes of fire-induced tree mortality to incorporate processes of tree death into models. Advances in both empirical and process fire-induced tree modeling will allow creation of hybrid models that could advance understanding of how fire injures and kills trees, while improving prediction accuracy of fire-driven feedbacks on ecosystems and landscapes, particularly under novel future conditions.

Environmental Research Letters↗