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Methods used to estimate daily streamflow and water availability in the Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator version 2.0

The Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator is a decision support tool that provides estimates of daily unaltered streamflow, water-use-adjusted streamflow, and water availability for ungaged, user-defined basins in Massachusetts. Daily streamflow at the ungaged site is estimated for unaltered (no water use) and water-use scenarios. The procedure for estimating streamflow was developed previously and has been implemented with minor changes and updated water-use data in version 2.0 of the Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator. Unaltered streamflow at selected exceedance probabilities is estimated by previously published regression equations. Streamflow is interpolated between the regressed quantiles to produce a continuous flow duration curve. A daily streamflow time series is produced for the ungaged site by relating the estimated flow duration curve at the ungaged site to a flow duration curve at a gaged reference site and then transferring the dates from the reference site to the ungaged site. Minor refinements were made to the previously published methods to estimate unaltered and water-use-adjusted streamflow, including a procedure to enforce the monotonic structure of the regression-based unaltered flow quantiles, improvements to the interpolation method used for computing the estimated flow duration curve, and updates to the methods used to compute time-lagged stream alterations from groundwater pumping or discharges. Additionally, a procedure was developed to estimate prediction intervals for daily and monthly unregulated streamflow time series at an ungaged site. The Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator computes water-use-adjusted streamflow using water-use data provided by the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection. Available water-use data included monthly withdrawal and wastewater discharge volumes from 2010 to 2014 for surface-water and groundwater sources. Water-use-adjusted streamflow represents the potential effect of current water use on natural streamflow in the basin over the range of historical hydrologic conditions. Georeferenced water withdrawal and discharge volumes were incorporated into the Massachusetts StreamStats web application for use in version 2.0 of the Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator. To compute water-use-adjusted streamflow, mean daily withdrawals and discharges within a user-defined basin are subtracted and added to the unaltered time series, respectively. Surface-water volumes are applied directly to the equation. Time-lagged streamflow alterations from groundwater withdrawal or wastewater discharge sources are estimated by using a response-coefficient method developed from results of previously published, calibrated groundwater models in Massachusetts. The Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator was updated to version 2.0 to improve software stability and usability. The version 2.0 software application was developed in Microsoft Access with a graphical user interface. All geoprocessing steps, including basin delineation and compilation of basin characteristics and water use within the basin, were completed in the Massachusetts StreamStats web application and exported for use by the Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator version 2.0.

Massachusetts

Sustainability of water-supply at military installations, Kabul Basin, Afghanistan

The Kabul Basin, including the city of Kabul, Afghanistan, is host to several military installations of Afghanistan, the United States, and other nations that depend on groundwater resources for water supply. These installations are within or close to the city of Kabul. Groundwater also is the potable supply for the approximately four million residents of Kabul. The sustainability of water resources in the Kabul Basin is a concern to military operations, and Afghan water-resource managers, owing to increased water demands from a growing population and potential mining activities. This study illustrates the use of chemical and isotopic analysis, groundwater flow modeling, and hydrogeologic investigations to assess the sustainability of groundwater resources in the Kabul Basin. Water supplies for military installations in the southern Kabul Basin were found to be subject to sustainability concerns, such as the potential drying of shallow-water supply wells as a result of declining water levels. Model simulations indicate that new withdrawals from deep aquifers may have less of an impact on surrounding community water supply wells than increased withdrawals from near- surface aquifers. Higher rates of recharge in the northern Kabul Basin indicate that military installations in that part of the basin may have fewer issues with long-term water sustainability. Simulations of groundwater withdrawals may be used to evaluate different withdrawal scenarios in an effort to manage water resources in a sustainable manner in the Kabul Basin.

Kabul

Inland fisheries – Invisible but integral to the UN Sustainable Development Agenda for ending poverty by 2030

The United Nations’ (UN) 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development defines the formidable challenge of integrating historically separate economic, social, and environmental goals into a unified ‘plan of action for people, planet, and prosperity.’ We highlight the substantial contribution inland fisheries can make towards preventing increased poverty and, in some cases, alleviating poverty (i.e. addressing Sustainable Development Goal [SDG] 1: No Poverty) as an opportunity to inform the next set of development agendas and their associated budgets and priorities. Overlooking the contribution of inland fisheries to poverty prevention and alleviation may undermine the capacity to successfully meet the development goals, especially in rural communities in Low-Income Food-Deficit countries. Inland fisheries are essential for food and economic security as the vast majority are small-scale operations or subsistence, predominantly used by poorer groups. Protecting inland fisheries from diverse threats from other water users and associated sectors requires robust, multi-sectoral, and multinational policies that can be brought about by global initiatives like the SDGs. Without such protection, their vital contribution towards sustainable livelihoods and poverty issues becomes uncertain. Further, integrating inland fisheries into sustainable development frameworks strengthens the likelihood of achieving the UN Agenda for Sustainable Development. In this perspective article, we posit that including inland fisheries in national policy statements and programs can prove beneficial to promoting economic and social growth for the poor, preventing further poverty, and achieving SDG 1 and other SDG targets, especially those related to food security.

Global Environmental Change

Significant challenges to the sustainability of the California coast considering climate change

Climate change is an existential threat to the environmental and socioeconomic sustainability of the coastal zone and impacts will be complex and widespread. Evidence from California and across the United States shows that climate change is impacting coastal communities and challenging managers with a plethora of stressors already present. Widespread action could be taken that would sustain California’s coastal ecosystems and communities. In this perspective, we highlight the main threat to coastal sustainability: the compound effects of episodic events amplified with ongoing climate change, which will present unprecedented challenges to the state. We present two key challenges for California’s sustainability in the coastal zone: 1) accelerating sea-level rise combined with storm impacts, and 2) continued warming of the oceans and marine heatwaves. Cascading effects from these types of compounding events will occur within the context of an already stressed system that has experienced extensive alterations due to intensive development, resource extraction and harvesting, spatial containment, and other human use pressures. There are critical components that could be used to address these immediate concerns, including comanagement strategies that include diverse groups and organizations, strategic planning integrated across large areas, rapid implementation of solutions, and a cohesive and policy relevant research agenda for the California coast. Much of this has been started in the state, but the scale could be increased, and timelines accelerated. The ideas and information presented here are intended to help expand discussions to sharpen the focus on how to encourage sustainability of California’s iconic coastal region.

California

Fisheries sustainability: Perceptions from the ninth World Fisheries Congress

The World Fisheries Congress (WFC) is one of the largest global gatherings of fisheries professionals and scientists. It is held every 4 years with the purpose of sharing ideas and perspectives about new research, emerging issues, scientific breakthroughs, and governance related to fisheries science, industry, conservation, and management. The ninth WFC, held in Seattle (USA) in 2024, focused on fish and fisheries at the food–water–energy nexus and understanding fisheries sustainability from diverse perspectives. Fisheries sustainability is a goal shared globally that faces challenges across spatial scales from the implementation of good governance and accelerating anthropogenic pressures. Leveraging the unique opportunity to gain insights from WFC delegates, this study assesses perceptions of fisheries sustainability from diverse representation across career stage, geo­graphic region, and professional and cultural backgrounds. Survey results show that respondents (i.e., WFC delegates who chose to take the survey) perceived limited progress towards fisheries sustainability, often with a variable and unclear definition of what sustainability entails. Fish were primarily valued from a provisioning resource perspective, with environmental aspects of fisheries management and conservation seen as the area with the most progress and the greatest needs, rather than economic or social dimensions of fisheries.

Fisheries

A transdisciplinary approach to growing an applied science of cultural evolution for a sustainable future

Addressing sustainability challenges requires an integrative approach that bridges scientific research with practical application. The field of cultural evolution (CE) offers a perspective that may guide transitions and cultural transformations for a sustainable future. However, there have been few efforts to apply this field to sustainability challenges. This study explores how CE can inform sustainability practices through mechanisms of social learning, processes of cultural adaptation and conditions that promote cooperative governance. Through a two-phase research design—comprising online discussions with professionals from six domains, and an international workshop—we examined the perceived benefits, challenges and opportunities for applying CE in real-world contexts. Our findings indicate that professionals recognize CE’s potential to enhance knowledge dissemination, foster adaptation to social–ecological changes, improve governance structures and generate cooperation. However, barriers such as complex terminology, unfamiliarity with CE, the lack of clear, context-specific evidence of added value and competition with existing frameworks hinder its application. To overcome these challenges, we propose simplifying CE concepts, demonstrating its unique contributions, and continuing to foster co-production with practitioners to refine its applicability. This study is an initial step in building an applied science of CE that can support sustainability transformations across diverse domains.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B

Maintaining and restoring sustainable ecosystems in southern Nevada

Managers in southern Nevada are challenge with determining appropriate goals and objectives and developing viable approaches for maintaining and restoring sustainable ecosystems in a time of rapid socio-ecological and environmental change. Sustainable or "healthy" ecosystems supply clean air, water and habitat for a diverse array of plants and animals. As described in Chapter 1, sustainable ecosystems retain characteristic processes like hydrological flux and storage, geomorphic processes, biogeochemical cycling and storage, biological activity and productivity, and population regeneration and reproduction over the normal cycle of disturbance events (modified from Chapin and others 1996 and Christensen and others 1996). Ecological restoration of stressed or disturbed ecosystems in an integral part of managing for sustainable ecosystems. The Society of Ecological Restoration International (SERI) defines ecological restoration as the process of assisting the recovery of an ecosystem that has been degraded, damaged, or destroyed (SERI 2004). Many of the southern Nevada's ecosystems are being subjected to anthropogenic stressors that span global, regional, and local scales (Chapter 2)., and are crossing ecological thresholds to new alternative states (Chapter 4 and Chapter 5). These alternative states often represent novel communities with disturbance regimes that differ significantly from historic conditions. Past management and restoration goals often focused on returning ecosystems to pre-disturbance conditions (Harris and others 2006). This approach assumes stable or equilibrium conditions and ignores changes in ecosystems processes due to land uses, increases in CO 2 concentrations, and climate change. A more realistic approach is to base management and restoration goals on the current potential of an ecosystem to support a given set of ecological conditions, and on the likelihood of future change due to warming climate (Harris and others 2006). This approach requires understanding ecosystem resilience to anthropogenic disturbance and climate change, the alternative states that exist for ecosystems, and the factors that result in threshold crossing (Bestelmeyer and others 2009; Hobbs and Harris 2001; Stingham and others 2003; Whisemnant 1999). It also requires the ability to predict how climate is likely to influence ecosystems in the future (Harris and others 2006). This chapter addresses the restoration aspects of Sub-goal 1.3 in the SNAP Science Research Strategy which is to restore and sustain proper function of southern Nevada's watersheds and landscapes (able 1.3; Turner and others 2009). The effects of global, regional and local stresses on southern Nevada ecosystems are presented in Chapter 2. Here, we discuss appropriate objectives and develop guidelines for maintaining and restoring southern Nevada ecosystems. We then discuss the differences in ecological resilience to stress and disturbance and resistance to invasive species in southern Nevada ecosystems and describe restoration and management approaches for the different ecosystem types. We conclude with knowledge gaps and management implications.

Nevada

Sustaining Rocky Mountain landscapes: Science, policy and management for the Crown of the Continent ecosystem

Prato and Fagre offer the first systematic, multi-disciplinary assessment of the challenges involved in managing the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem ( CCE), an area of the Rocky Mountains that includes northwestern Montana, southwestern Alberta, and southeastern British Columbia. The spectacular landscapes, extensive recreational options, and broad employment opportunities of the CCE have made it one of the fastest growing regions in the United States and Canada, and have lead to a shift in its economic base from extractive resource industries to service-oriented recreation and tourism industries. In the process, however, the amenities and attributes that draw people to this “New West” are under threat. Pastoral scenes are disappearing as agricultural lands and other open spaces are converted to residential uses, biodiversity is endangered by the fragmentation of fish and wildlife habitats, and many areas are experiencing a decline in air and water quality. Sustaining Rocky Mountain Landscapes provides a scientific basis for communities to develop policies for managing the growth and economic transformation of the CCE without sacrificing the quality of life and environment for which the land is renowned. This forthcoming edited volume focuses on five aspects of sustaining mountain landscapes in the CCE and similar regions in the Rocky Mountains. The five aspects are: 1) how social, economic, demo graphic and environmental forces are transforming ecosystem structure and function, 2) trends in use and conditions for human and environmental resources, 3) activating science, policy and education to enhance sustainable landscape management, 4) challenges to sustainable management of public and private lands, and 5) future prospects for achieving sustainable landscapes.

Idaho, Montana

Banking on strong rural livelihoods and the sustainable use of natural capital in post-conflict Colombia

In post-conflict Colombia, the government has prioritized resettlement of displaced people through development of strong rural livelihoods and the sustainable use of natural capital. In this paper, we considered government proposals for expanding payment for ecosystem services (PES) and sustainable silvopastoral systems, and private-sector investment in habitat banking. We coupled the Integrated Economic-Environmental Model (IEEM) with spatially explicit land use and land cover change and ecosystem services models to assess the potential impacts of these programs through the lens of wealth and sustainable economic development. This innovative workflow integrates dynamic endogenous feedbacks between natural capital, ecosystem services and the economic system, and can be applied to other country contexts. Results show that PES and habitat banking programs are strong investment propositions (Net Present Value of US$4.4 and $4.9 billion, respectively), but only when moving beyond conventional economic analysis to include non-market ecosystem services. Where a portfolio investment approach is taken and PES is implemented with sustainable silvopastoral systems, investment returns would reach US$7.1 billion. This paper provides a detailed evaluation of the benefits of investing in rural livelihoods and enhancing Colombia’s natural capital base, with empirical evidence to inform the spatial targeting of policies to maximize economic, environmental and social outcomes.

Environment, Development, and Sustainability

Avoiding decline: Fostering resilience and sustainability in midsize cities

Eighty-five percent of United States citizens live in urban areas. However, research surrounding the resilience and sustainability of complex urban systems focuses largely on coastal megacities (>1 million people). Midsize cities differ from their larger counterparts due to tight urban-rural feedbacks with their immediate natural environments that result from heavy reliance and close management of local ecosystem services. They also may be less path-dependent than larger cities due to shorter average connection length among system components, contributing to higher responsiveness among social, infrastructural, and ecological feedbacks. These distinct midsize city features call for a framework that organizes information and concepts concerning the sustainability of midsize cities specifically. We argue that an integrative approach is necessary to capture properties emergent from the complex interactions of the social, infrastructural, and ecological subsystems that comprise a city system. We suggest approaches to estimate the relative resilience of midsize cities, and include an example assessment to illustrate one such estimation approach. Resilience assessments of a midsize city can be used to examine why some cities end up on sustainable paths while others diverge to unsustainable paths, and which feedbacks may be partially responsible. They also provide insight into how city planners and decision makers can use information about the resilience of midsize cities undergoing growth or shrinkage relative to their larger and smaller counterparts, to transform them into long-term, sustainable social-ecological systems.

Sustainability

Toward sustainable environmental quality: Priority research questions for North America

Anticipating, identifying, and prioritizing strategic needs represent essential activities by research organizations. Decided benefits emerge when these pursuits engage globally important environment and health goals, including the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. To this end, horizon scanning efforts can facilitate identification of specific research needs to address grand challenges. We report and discuss 40 priority research questions following engagement of scientists and engineers in North America. These timely questions identify the importance of stimulating innovation and developing new methods, tools, and concepts in environmental chemistry and toxicology to improve assessment and management of chemical contaminants and other diverse environmental stressors. Grand challenges to achieving sustainable management of the environment are becoming increasingly complex and structured by global megatrends, which collectively challenge existing sustainable environmental quality efforts. Transdisciplinary, systems‐based approaches will be required to define and avoid adverse biological effects across temporal and spatial gradients. Similarly, coordinated research activities among organizations within and among countries are necessary to address the priority research needs reported here. Acquiring answers to these 40 research questions will not be trivial, but doing so promises to advance sustainable environmental quality in the 21st century.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry

Earth Stewardship: An initiative by the Ecological Society of America to foster engagement to sustain Planet Earth

The Ecological Society of America (ESA) has responded to the growing commitment among ecologists to make their science relevant to society through a series of concerted efforts, including the Sustainable Biosphere Initiative (1991), scientific assessment of ecosystem management (1996), ESA’s vision for the future (2003), Rapid Response Teams that respond to environmental crises (2005), and the Earth Stewardship Initiative (2009). During the past 25 years, ESA launched five new journals, largely reflecting the expansion of scholarship linking ecology with broader societal issues. The goal of the Earth Stewardship Initiative is to raise awareness and to explore ways for ecologists and other scientists to contribute more effectively to the sustainability of our planet. This has occurred through four approaches: (1) articulation of the stewardship concept in ESA publications and Website, (2) selection of meeting themes and symposia, (3) engagement of ESA sections in implementing the initiative, and (4) outreach beyond ecology through collaborations and demonstration projects. Collaborations include societies and groups of Earth and social scientists, practitioners and policy makers, religious and business leaders, federal agencies, and artists and writers. The Earth Stewardship Initiative is a work in progress, so next steps likely include continued nurturing of these emerging collaborations, advancing the development of sustainability and stewardship theory, improving communication of stewardship science, and identifying opportunities for scientists and civil society to take actions that move the Earth toward a more sustainable trajectory.

Book chapter

Towards vibrant fish populations and sustainable fisheries that benefit all: Learning from the last 30 years to inform the next 30 years

A common goal among fisheries science professionals, stakeholders, and rights holders is to ensure the persistence and resilience of vibrant fish populations and sustainable, equitable fisheries in diverse aquatic ecosystems, from small headwater streams to offshore pelagic waters. Achieving this goal requires a complex intersection of science and management, and a recognition of the interconnections among people, place, and fish that govern these tightly coupled socioecological and sociotechnical systems. The World Fisheries Congress (WFC) convenes every four years and provides a unique global forum to debate and discuss threats, issues, and opportunities facing fish populations and fisheries. The 2021 WFC meeting, hosted remotely in Adelaide, Australia, marked the 30th year since the first meeting was held in Athens, Greece, and provided an opportunity to reflect on progress made in the past 30 years and provide guidance for the future. We assembled a diverse team of individuals involved with the Adelaide WFC and reflected on the major challenges that faced fish and fisheries over the past 30 years, discussed progress toward overcoming those challenges, and then used themes that emerged during the Congress to identify issues and opportunities to improve sustainability in the world's fisheries for the next 30 years. Key future needs and opportunities identified include: rethinking fisheries management systems and modelling approaches, modernizing and integrating assessment and information systems, being responsive and flexible in addressing persistent and emerging threats to fish and fisheries, mainstreaming the human dimension of fisheries, rethinking governance, policy and compliance, and achieving equity and inclusion in fisheries. We also identified a number of cross-cutting themes including better understanding the role of fish as nutrition in a hungry world, adapting to climate change, embracing transdisciplinarity, respecting Indigenous knowledge systems, thinking ahead with foresight science, and working together across scales. By reflecting on the past and thinking about the future, we aim to provide guidance for achieving our mutual goal of sustaining vibrant fish populations and sustainable fisheries that benefit all. We hope that this prospective thinking can serve as a guide to (i) assess progress towards achieving this lofty goal and (ii) refine our path with input from new and emerging voices and approaches in fisheries science, management, and stewardship.

Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries

A framework for sustainable invasive species management: environmental, social and economic objectives

Applying the concept of sustainability to invasive species management (ISM) is challenging but necessary, given the increasing rates of invasion and the high costs of invasion impacts and control. To be sustainable, ISM must address environmental, social, and economic factors (or *pillars*) that influence the causes, impacts, and control of invasive species across multiple spatial and temporal scales. Although these pillars are generally acknowledged, their implementation is often limited by insufficient control options and significant economic and political constraints. In this paper, we outline specific objectives in each of these three *pillars* that, if incorporated into a management plan, will improve the plan's likelihood of sustainability. We then examine three case studies that illustrate how these objectives can be effectively implemented. Each pillar reinforces the others, such that the inclusion of even a few of the outlined objectives will lead to more effective management that achieves ecological goals, while generating social support and long-term funding to maintain projects to completion. We encourage agency directors and policy-makers to consider sustainability principles when developing funding schemes, management agendas, and policy.

Journal of Environmental Management

Linking fire and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals

Fire is a ubiquitous natural disturbance that affects 3–4% of the Earth's surface each year. It is a tool used by humans for land clearing and burning of agricultural wastes. The United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) do not explicitly mention fire, though many of the Goals are affected by the beneficial and adverse consequences of fires on ecosystem services. There are at least three compelling reasons to include a fire perspective in the implementation of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. The first reason relates to the stated vision of the United Nations 2030 Agenda to protect the environment. In order to achieve environmental protection during sustainable development activities, it is necessary to understand and plan for the effects of disturbances, in this case fire, on ecosystem services. The second reason is that fires produce emissions with regional and global impacts on air quality and rainfall patterns. Fires contribute to global warming though the release greenhouse gases, primarily CO 2 , and black carbon, identified as a SLCP (short-lived climate pollutant). The third reason is that fire is one of several complex processes that lead to land degradation across the globe. Opportunities exist to incorporate a fire perspective into sustainable development projects or approaches. Two examples are highlighted here. Transdisciplinary communication and collaboration are needed to address the complex issues related to fire, and to climate and land use change.

Science of the Total Environment

One Northwest community - People, salmon, rivers, and the sea: Towards sustainable salmon fisheries

Pacific salmon management is in crisis. Throughout their range, salmon and steelhead populations are being adversely affected by human activities. Without coordinated, effective, and timely action, the future of the Pacific salmon resource is most certainly in doubt. To address the challenges that are currently facing salmon management, concerned citizens representing a diverse array of government agencies and non-governmental organizations have agreed to cooperate in the development of a Sustainable Fisheries Strategy for west coast salmon and steelhead populations. The Strategy builds on the contents of this book, resulting from the Sustainable Fisheries Conference and subsequent community- and watershed-based citizen forums. This chapter presents the key elements of the Strategy including a common vision for the future, a series of guiding principles, and specific strategies for supporting sustainable fisheries. As such, the Strategy embraces an ecosystem-based approach to managing human activities, rather than the traditional egocentric approach to managing salmonid populations and associated habitats. A system of community-based, watershed-oriented councils, including all stakeholders and agency representatives, is proposed for effective transition to ecosystem-based salmon and steelhead management. It is our hope that everyone involved in Pacific salmon management will embrace both the spirit and the specific elements of the Sustainable Fisheries Strategy as we face the difficult challenges ahead.

Book chapter

Setting the stage for a sustainable Pacific salmon fisheries strategy

Salmon and steelhead Oncorhynchus spp., have been keystone species for ecosystems and human cultures of the North American Pacific coast for cons. Yet, in the past century, many populations have been greatly diminished and some are now extinct-the result of a combination of factors, including habitat loss and degradation, overfishing, natural variability in salmon production, negative effects of artificial propagation, and weaknesses in institutional and regulatory structures. We argue that a major shift is required, from the egocentric environmental approach (wherein each part of the ecosystem is managed as a unit) to the ecocentric ecosystem approach (wherein all parts are integrated for management). A management framework is proposed that contains-for each management unit such as a watershed-four elements: management goals; management objectives, ecosystem indicators; and a coordinated action plan. We also describe the Sustainable Fisheries Strategy, a consultative process for developing an ecosystem-based approach toward achieving sustainable Pacific salmon and steelhead populations and fisheries. This book is one of three important underpinnings of the Strategy; the other two are the Strategy itself and a manual being developed to guide community-based programs embracing the principles of sustainable fisheries. This book contains important historical perspectives as well as numerous innovative ideas for moving toward ecosystem-oriented, sustainable management of Pacific salmon and steelhead.

Book chapter

The macroecology of sustainability

The discipline of sustainability science has emerged in response to concerns of natural and social scientists, policymakers, and lay people about whether the Earth can continue to support human population growth and economic prosperity. Yet, sustainability science has developed largely independently from and with little reference to key ecological principles that govern life on Earth. A macroecological perspective highlights three principles that should be integral to sustainability science: 1) physical conservation laws govern the flows of energy and materials between human systems and the environment, 2) smaller systems are connected by these flows to larger systems in which they are embedded, and 3) global constraints ultimately limit flows at smaller scales. Over the past few decades, decreasing per capita rates of consumption of petroleum, phosphate, agricultural land, fresh water, fish, and wood indicate that the growing human population has surpassed the capacity of the Earth to supply enough of these essential resources to sustain even the current population and level of socioeconomic development.

PLoS Biology