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The Upper Midwest Aerospace Consortium Environmental Information Network: Building ‘Learning Communities’ in the Northern Great Plains

In the last two decades alone, the U.S. and large portions of the world have witnessed what can be aptly be described as an explosion of scientific information and technological innovations that has permeated almost every aspect of our lives. Given these trends, it is clear that science and the understanding of science are becoming increasingly more relevant and essential to decision-makers and the decision-making process. Every environmental issue confronting society has an undisputed scientific underpinning. Understanding the implications of the science underpinning issues of particular importance to the health and well being of society constitutes the basis for making more informed and enlightened decisions. However obvious this linkage may be, many factors continue to serve as impediments to the broader understanding and incorporation of science into policy- and decision-making processes, as perhaps is best exemplified by the case of climate science.

Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyomin

Aggregating three sources of long-term trends of swallows and martins to identify priority conservation areas in the Great Lakes region

1. Long-term monitoring of bird populations across scales is important in evaluating conservation targets and creating effective conservation strategies. For nearly six decades, the Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) has served as the primary broad-scaled source of relative abundance trends of swallows and martins in North America. Recently, however, it has become possible to obtain breeding population trends using semi-structured eBird community science data. Moreover, weather surveil-lance radar data of swallow and martin roosting populations yield a third complementary source of trend information. 2. Using results from these three approaches, we propose a novel method of spatially combining estimates of percent change per year into a probability of directional agreement and/or disagreement that describes (1) the direction of the trend within a given region, (2) the amount of evidence associated with the estimate and (3) how much uncertainty surrounds it. We focus our efforts on an area of high Hirundinidae concentration in the North American Great Lakes region and predict trends from 2012 to 2022. 3. We found a high probability of agreement between all three sources about ob-served declines in swallow and martin trends in the region surrounding Lake Ontario and to the west of Lake Michigan. Focusing future research on these regions could improve our understanding of these declines and help build more targeted conservation initiatives. 4. Synthesis and applications. Our data integration methodology allows managers to identify regions that accumulate evidence of concerning trends across multiple wildlife monitoring schemes. These regions can thus be prioritized in conservation and management efforts. This approach can be generalized to other sources of long-term monitoring data of different species, at different stages of their annual cycle, in any geographic location.

Great Lakes region

Fort Collins Science Center fiscal year 2010 science accomplishments

The scientists and technical professionals at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Fort Collins Science Center (FORT), apply their diverse ecological, socioeconomic, and technological expertise to investigate complicated ecological problems confronting managers of the Nation's biological resources. FORT works closely with U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) agency scientists, the academic community, other USGS science centers, and many other partners to provide critical information needed to help answer complex natural-resource management questions. In Fiscal Year 2010 (FY10), FORT's scientific and technical professionals conducted ongoing, expanded, and new research vital to the science needs and management goals of DOI, other Federal and State agencies, and nongovernmental organizations in the areas of aquatic systems and fisheries, climate change, data and information integration and management, invasive species, science support, security and technology, status and trends of biological resources (including the socioeconomic aspects), terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, and wildlife resources, including threatened and endangered species. This report presents selected FORT science accomplishments for FY10 by the specific USGS mission area or science program with which each task is most closely associated, though there is considerable overlap. The report also includes all FORT publications and other products published in FY10, as well as staff accomplishments, appointments, committee assignments, and invited presentations.

Open-File Report

Geography for a Changing World - A science strategy for the geographic research of the U.S. Geological Survey, 2005-2015

This report presents a science strategy for the geographic research of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) for the years 2005-2015. The common thread running through the vision, mission, and science goals presented in the plan is that USGS geographers will provide national leadership to understand coupled human-environmental systems in the face of land change and will deliver pertinent information to decisionmakers on the vulnerability and resilience of these systems. We define land change science as the study of the human and environment dynamics that give rise to changed land use, cover, and surface form. A number of realities shape the strategic context of this plan: The Department of Interior Strategic Plan focuses on meeting society’s resource needs and sustaining the Nation’s life support systems, underscoring the importance of characterizing and understanding coupled human-environmental systems. In redefining its mission in the mid-1990s, the USGS envisions itself as an integrated natural science and information agency. The USGS will assume a national leadership role in the use of science to develop knowledge about the web of relations that couple biophysical and human systems and translate this knowledge into unbiased, reliable information that meets important societal information needs. The following trends will influence USGS geography-oriented science activities over the next decade. Most of the emerging earth science issues that the USGS will address are geographic phenomena. A growing international concern for aligning society’s development activities with environmental limits has led to an articulation of a science agenda associated with global environmental change, vulnerability, and resilience. Earth science investigations have evolved toward the study of very large areas, and the resulting huge volumes of data are challenging to manage and understand. Finally, scientists and the public face the challenge of gaining intelligent insights about geographic and environmental processes from these data, with the ultimate goal of guiding resource-management decisions. The first four science goals in the plan support understanding the human and environmental dynamics of land change. Each science goal has an associated set of strategic actions to achieve the goal. These goals and actions are consistent with national science priorities and the Department of Interior and USGS missions, take advantage of existing expertise, and lead to the strengthening of critical geographic research capacities that do not exist in other USGS disciplines.

Circular

Fire as an evolutionary pressure shaping plant traits

Traits, such as resprouting, serotiny and germination by heat and smoke, are adaptive in fire-prone environments. However, plants are not adapted to fire per se but to fire regimes. Species can be threatened when humans alter the regime, often by increasing or decreasing fire frequency. Fire-adaptive traits are potentially the result of different evolutionary pathways. Distinguishing between traits that are adaptations originating in response to fire or exaptations originating in response to other factors might not always be possible. However, fire has been a factor throughout the history of land-plant evolution and is not strictly a Neogene phenomenon. Mesozoic fossils show evidence of fire-adaptive traits and, in some lineages, these might have persisted to the present as fire adaptations.

Trends in Plant Science

Epicormic resprouting in fire-prone ecosystems

Many plants resprout from basal buds after disturbance, and this is common in shrublands subjected to high-intensity fires. However, resprouting after fire from epicormic (stem) buds is globally far less common. Unlike basal resprouting, post-fire epicormic resprouting is a key plant adaptation for retention of the arborescent skeleton after fire, allowing rapid recovery of the forest or woodland and leading to greater ecosystem resilience under recurrent high-intensity fires. Here we review the biogeography of epicormic resprouting, the mechanisms of protection, the fire regimes where it occurs, and the evolutionary drivers that shaped this trait. We propose that epicormic resprouting is adaptive in ecosystems with high fire frequency and relatively high productivity, at moderate–high fire intensities.

Trends in Plant Science

An enthusiast's guide to agrostology

Book review of: Population Biology of Grasses edited by G.P. Cheplick Cambridge University Press, 1998. £50.00/$85.00 hbk (xii +399 pages) ISBN 0 521 57205 3

Trends in Plant Science

The ongoing educational anomaly of earth science placement

The geosciences have traditionally been viewed with less “academic prestige” than other science curricula. Among the results of this perception are depressed K-16 enrollments, Earth Science assignments to lower-performing students, and relegation of these classes to sometimes under-qualified educators, all of which serve to confirm the widely-held misconceptions. An Earth Systems course developed at San José State University demonstrates the difficulty of a standard high school Earth science curriculum, while recognizing the deficiencies in pre-college Earth science education. Restructuring pre-college science curricula so that Earth Science is placed as a capstone course would greatly improve student understanding of the geosciences, while development of Earth systems courses that infuse real-world and hands-on learning at the college level is critical to bridging the information gap for those with no prior exposure to the Earth sciences. Well-crafted workshops for pre-service and inservice teachers of Earth Science can help to reverse the trends and unfortunate “status” in geoscience education.

Journal of Geoscience Education

Status and trends of North American bats: Summer occupancy analysis 2010-2019

• We developed an analytical pipeline supported by web-based infrastructure for integrating continental scale bat monitoring data (stationary acoustic, mobile acoustic, and capture records) to estimate summer (May 1–Aug 31) occupancy probabilities and changes in occupancy over time for 12 North American bat species. This serves as one of multiple lines of evidence that inform the status and trends of bat populations. • We analyzed data from a total of 12 bat species (Table 1), 11 of which have tested positive for Pseudogymnoascus destructans (Pd), a fungal pathogen that causes white-nose syndrome (WNS)—a disease that has led to significant rates of mortality for subterranean hibernating bat species in North America. A twelfth species was also selected because of high rates of mortality at wind energy facilities. Additional species were considered but not selected due to data limitations. • We estimated occupancy probabilities for 2010 through 2019 for three species ( Myotis lucifugus , MYLU; Myotis septentrionalis , MYSE; and P erimyotis subflavus , PESU). For an additional nine species, we estimated occupancy probabilities for 2016 through 2019 ( Myotis evotis , MYEV; Myotis grisescens , MYGR; Myotis leibii , MYLE; Myotis thysanodes , MYTH; Myotis volans , MYVO; Myotis yumanensis , MYYU; Eptesicus fuscus , EPFU; Lasionycteris noctivagans , LANO; and Lasiurus cinereus , LACI). • For each species, we provide range-wide occupancy probability predictions (e.g., predicted summer occupancy distribution maps) each year at a spatial resolution of 100 km2 and provide regional estimates of mean occupancy probability aggregated at larger spatial scales (state/province/territory, range-wide). • For each species, we also provide trends over time (average annual change rate and total change rate) in mean occupancy probabilities at multiple spatial scales (state/province/territory, range-wide) and when possible, over multiple timescales (short, medium, long). • Results suggest that over the short-term (2016-2019), two ( Myotis lucifugus and Perimyotis subflavus ) of 12 species have experienced declines in range-wide average occupancy probability with at least 95% certainty. Seven species showed either minor increases or decreases in range-wide average occupancy probability but with less than 95% certainty in both trend indicators. Results over the longer term (eight years and 10 years of sampling) suggest that three hibernating species known to be highly affected by white-nose syndrome ( Myotis lucifugus , Myotis septentrionalis , and Perimyotis subflavus ) have experienced marked declines in range-wide average occupancy probabilities, with severity varying by species and region. Finally, the results for three species ( Eptesicus fuscus , Lasiurus cinereus , Lasionycteris noctivagans ) were inconclusive due to 1) borderline convergence issues in the model fitting procedure which suggests potentially unreliable estimates, 2) failure to reliably distinguish between false positives and true positive detections for ambiguous detections, and 3) largely uninformative covariates for occupancy and detection. • For Myotis lucifugus , Myotis septentrionalis , and Perimyotis subflavus we found meaningful associations in space and time between declining winter populations (likely a result of WNS) and summer occupancy distributions. • The representativeness of sampling data for each species’ status and trend estimates (e.g., state/province/territory) were also evaluated based on the percent of grid cells sampled each year with a goal of understanding the reliability of regional estimates and improving future monitoring efforts. • This work represents the most comprehensive effort to date to model North American bat distributions across their continental ranges. Despite current limitations highlighted in the discussion, the analytical methods and resulting status and trends estimates provide the best available science on summer bat populations across North America and will continue to improve over time as monitoring data sets and analytical methods improve. • Moving forward, our occupancy analyses will continue to improve with submission of more 1) data from currently underrepresented areas (i.e., improved geographic representation), 2) manually-vetted acoustic recordings, 3) capture records, and 4) roost location and count data (summer and winter).

Report

Climate Assessments and Scenario Planning (CLASP)

The NE CASC boasts an interdisciplinary array of scientists, from ecologists to biologists, hydrologists to climatologists, each contributing new, original academic research to advance our understanding of the impacts of climate change on wildlife and other natural resources in the Northeast. Needed was an outreach specialist who would interface directly with the management agencies who benefited from this research to aid the integration of this research into their management planning as part of adapting to climate change. A climatologist was preferred to address queries about climate modeling, climate change uncertainties, and other areas of climate science outside the expertise of NE CASC ecologists, biologists, and hydrologists. This person’s activities would include responding to inquiries, presenting climate science concepts at management workshops, gathering managers’ climate science needs, contributing to the climate portion of synthesis reports and other resources for managers, and collaborating with ecologists on interdisciplinary studies of climate change by providing climate data and guidance on interpretation. The objective was to relay and interpret the scientific findings most relevant to managers’ resources of concern and management activities around those resources to guide adjustments to their activities toward better protecting their resources of concern. As an outcome, managers often relied on synthesized climate science to be able to consider how climate trends affect their work, especially those thinking about climate change for the first time in the context of their work. This lays the groundwork for more detailed management-driven science delivery that can aid eventual implementation. Management groups reached by this project include land managers with the National Park Service, state fish and game departments and DNRs, and tribal environmental coordinators.

Report

Riverscape approaches in practice: Perspectives and applications

Landscape perspectives in riverine ecology have been undertaken increasingly in the last 30 years, leading aquatic ecologists to develop a diverse set of approaches for conceptualizing, mapping and understanding ‘riverscapes’. Spatiotemporally explicit perspectives of rivers and their biota nested within the socio-ecological landscape now provide guiding principles and approaches in inland fisheries and watershed management. During the last two decades, scientific literature on riverscapes has increased rapidly, indicating that the term and associated approaches are serving an important purpose in freshwater science and management. We trace the origins and theoretical foundations of riverscape perspectives and approaches and examine trends in the published literature to assess the state of the science and demonstrate how they are being applied to address recent challenges in the management of riverine ecosystems. We focus on approaches for studying and visualizing rivers and streams with remote sensing, modelling and sampling designs that enable pattern detection as seen from above (e.g. river channel, floodplain, and riparian areas) but also into the water itself (e.g. aquatic organisms and the aqueous environment). Key concepts from landscape ecology that are central to riverscape approaches are heterogeneity, scale (resolution, extent and scope) and connectivity (structural and functional), which underpin spatial and temporal aspects of study design, data collection and analysis. Mapping of physical and biological characteristics of rivers and floodplains with high-resolution, spatially intensive techniques improves understanding of the causes and ecological consequences of spatial patterns at multiple scales. This information is crucial for managing river ecosystems, especially for the successful implementation of conservation, restoration and monitoring programs. Recent advances in remote sensing, field-sampling approaches and geospatial technology are making it increasingly feasible to collect high-resolution data over larger scales in space and time. We highlight challenges and opportunities and discuss future avenues of research with emerging tools that can potentially help to overcome obstacles to collecting, analysing and displaying these data. This synthesis is intended to help researchers and resource managers understand and apply these concepts and approaches to address real-world problems in freshwater management.

Biological Reviews

Marbled murrelets have declined in Alaska

In the last issue of Northwest Science , Hayward and Iverson (“Long-Term Trends in Marbled Murrelets in Southeast Alaska Based on Christmas Bird Counts”) failed to mention other evidence for 40-75% declines in murrelet populations, or discuss implications of a climate regime shift that has reduced populations of seabirds in Alaska, or present any useful information on the status of old-growth breeding habitat for murrelets. They examined Christmas Bird Count (CBC) data from Southeast Alaska, and concluded that there is no evidence for declines in populations. They suggested that our (Piatt and Naslund 1995) previous analysis of CBC data for murrelets was erroneous, and suggested that “ the disparity between our conclusions… invites explanation ”. Invitation accepted. In the following, I will show that there was no disparity in conclusions, that Hayward and Iverson mis-represented our conclusions and they conducted a highly selective review of evidence for murrelet population changes in Alaska. The result was a paper that was inaccurate, incomplete, out-of-date, mis-leading and of little service to the readers of Northwest Science who might have read the article hoping to gain some new insight on the status of marbled murrelets in Alaska.

Alaska

Status and trends in the fish community of Lake Superior, 2012

The Great Lakes Science Center has conducted daytime nearshore bottom trawl surveys of Lake Superior (15-80 m bathymetric depth zone) each spring since 1978 and an offshore survey (>80 m) since 2011 to provide long-term trends of relative abundance and biomass of the fish community. In 2012, 72 nearshore and 34 offshore stations were sampled with a 12-m Yankee bottom trawl. The 2012 estimate of lake-wide nearshore fish community biomass was 1.14 kg/ha, second lowest in the 35-year survey history, down from 3.63 kg/ha observed in the 2011 survey. Dominant species in the catch, in order of relative biomass, were bloater, rainbow smelt, lake whitefish, pygmy whitefish, and shortjaw cisco. Compared to 2011 levels, biomass of all species decreased. Year-class strengths for the 2011 cisco and bloater cohorts were well below average and ranked as the second weakest year-classes in the past 35 years. Year-class strength of rainbow smelt was the weakest in the survey record, continuing a decline that began in 2008. As in 2011, densities of hatchery lake trout remained near zero in 2012, while densities of wild (lean) lake trout and siscowet lake trout decreased. Proportions of total lake trout density in 2012 that were hatchery, wild, and siscowet were 5, 74, and 21%, respectively. The 2012 estimate of lake-wide offshore fish community biomass was 6.9 kg/ha, down from 9.0 kg/ha in 2011. Deepwater sculpin, kiyi, and siscowet lake trout represented 98% of the fish caught in terms of both density and biomass. Community composition, number of species collected and densities and biomass for most species were similar to that observed in 2011. Due to ship mechanical failures, nearshore sampling was delayed from mid-May to mid-June to mid-June to late August. The shift to summer sampling when the lake was stratified may have affected our estimates, thus our estimates of status and trends for the nearshore fish community in 2012 are tentative, pending results of future surveys. However, the results of the 2012 survey are comparable with those during 2009 and 2010 when lake-wide fish biomass declined to < 1.40 kg/ha. Declines in prey fish biomass since the late 1990s can be attributed to a combination of increased predation by recovered lake trout populations and infrequent and weak recruitment by the principal prey fishes, cisco and bloater. In turn declines in lake trout biomass since the mid-2000s are likely linked to declines in prey fish biomass. If lean and siscowet lake trout populations in nearshore waters continue to remain at current levels, predation mortality will likely maintain the relatively low prey fish biomass observed in recent years. Alternatively, if lake trout populations show a substantial decline in abundance in upcoming years, prey fish populations may rebound in a fashion reminiscent to what occurred in the late 1970s to mid-1980s. However, this scenario depends on substantial increases in harvest of lake trout, which seems unlikely given that levels of lake trout harvest have been flat or declining in many regions of Lake Superior since 2000.

Lake Superior

Identifying characteristics of actionable science for drought planning and adaptation: Final report to the North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center

Changing climate conditions can make water management planning and drought preparedness decisions more complicated than ever before. Resource managers can no longer rely solely on historical data and trends to base their actions, and are in need of science that is relevant to their specific needs and can directly inform important planning decisions. Questions remain, however, regarding the most effective and efficient methods for extending scientific knowledge and products into management and decision-making. This study analyzed two unique cases of water management to better understand how science can be translated into resource management actions and decision-making. In particular, this project sought to understand 1) the characteristics that make science actionable and useful for water resource management and drought preparedness, and 2) the ideal types of scientific knowledge or science products that facilitate the use of science in management and decision-making. The first case study focused on beaver mimicry, an emerging nature-based solution that increases the presence of wood and woody debris in rivers and streams to mimic the actions of beavers. This technique has been rapidly adopted by natural resource managers as a way to restore riparian areas, increase groundwater infiltration, and slow surface water flow so that more water is available later in the year during hotter and dryer months. The second case study focused on an established research program, Colorado Dust on Snow, that provides water managers with scientific information explaining how the movement of dust particles from the Colorado Plateau influences hydrology and the timing and intensity of snow melt and water runoff into critical water sources. This program has support from and is being used by several water conservation districts in the state. Understanding how scientific knowledge translates into action and decision-making in these cases is expected to strengthen our knowledge of actionable science in the context of drought and its impacts on ecosystems. The project team gathered qualitative data through stakeholder interviews and will conduct an extensive literature review. Findings from these efforts will also be incorporated into a broader Intermountain West synthesis effort to determine and assess commonalities and differences among socio-ecological aspects of drought adaptation and planning.

Colorado, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota,

River and riparian restoration in the southwest: Results of the National River Restoration Science Synthesis project

Restoration activity has exponentially increased across the Southwest since 1990. Over 37,000 records were compiled into the National River Restoration Science Synthesis (NRRSS) database to summarize restoration trends and assess project effectiveness. We analyzed data from 576 restoration projects in the Southwest (NRRSS-SW). More than 50% of projects were less than or equal to 3 km in length. The most common restoration project intent categories were riparian management, water quality management, in-stream habitat improvement, and flow modification. Common project activities were well matched to goals. Conservative estimates of total restoration costs exceeded $500 million. Most restoration dollars have been allocated to flow modification and water quality management. Monitoring was linked to 28% of projects across the Southwest, as opposed to just 10% nationwide. Mean costs were statistically similar whether or not projects were monitored. Results from 48 telephone interviews provided validation of NRRSS-SW database analyses but showed that project costs are often underreported within existing datasets. The majority of interviewees considered their projects to be successful, most often based upon observed improvements to biota or positive public reaction rather than evaluation of field data. The efficacy of restoration is difficult to ascertain given the dearth of information contained within most datasets. There is a great need for regional entities that not only track information on project implementation but also maintain and analyze monitoring data associated with restoration. Agencies that fund or regulate restoration should reward projects that emphasize monitoring and evaluation as much as project implementation. ?? 2007 Society for Ecological Restoration International.

Restoration Ecology

A Landscape Indicator Approach to the Identification and Articulation of the Ecological Consequences of Land Cover Change in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed, 1970-2000

The advancement of geographic science in the area of land surface status and trends and land cover change is at the core of the current geographic scientific research of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) (McMahon and others, 2005). Perhaps the least developed or articulated aspects of USGS land change science have been the identification and analysis of the ecological consequences of land cover change. Changes in land use and land cover significantly affect the ability of ecosystems to provide essential ecological goods and services, which, in turn, affect the economic, public health, and social benefits that these ecosystems provide. One of the great scientific challenges for geographic science is to understand and calibrate the effects of land use and land cover change and the complex interaction between human and biotic systems at a variety of natural, geographic, and political scales. Understanding the dynamics of land surface change requires an increased understanding of the complex nature of human-environmental systems and will require a suite of scientific tools that include traditional geographic data and analysis methods, such as remote sensing and geographic information systems (GIS), as well as innovative approaches to understanding the dynamics of complex systems. One such approach that has gained much recent scientific attention is the landscape indicator, or landscape assessment, approach, which has been developed with the emergence of the science of landscape ecology.

Fact Sheet

Same view through a different lens: Comparing population trends for North American birds using eBird and the Breeding Bird Survey

Confidently estimating population trends is of vital importance for a wide range of ecological, conservation, and management applications. North America has 2 major data sources for estimating population trends of breeding birds—the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) and the global participatory science project eBird. Because the surveys differ in protocols, coverage, and data analysis, their trend estimates are expected to vary in magnitude, direction, and/or precision for at least some species and regions. Here, we compare independently derived estimates of population change between 2012 and 2022 for every combination of species and bird conservation region (BCR) covered by both surveys ( n = 5,577 combinations) as well as aggregated across entire ranges or within the U.S. or Canada. Uncertainty was substantial for both surveys, though more prevalent for BBS (81% of credibility intervals for estimates included zero) than eBird (34% of confidence intervals overlapped zero). We found agreement of trend directions between the 2 surveys. Only 1.3% of estimated trends were significant in opposite directions between the 2 surveys for all species/BCR combinations, with the median difference in trend magnitude being –0.02% (BBS minus eBird trend). Correlations between the 2 were strongest for estimates that were graded as being high credibility compared to estimates judged to have medium or low credibility. Both surveys were subject to species, taxonomic, and regional effects that influenced agreement. Overall, we show where trend estimates derived from BBS and eBird agree, explore where they diverge, present several comparisons to assist in interpreting results from both surveys, and inform efforts to integrate information from each.

Ornithological Applications

Fort Collins Science Center - Fiscal Year 2008 Science Accomplishments

Public land and natural resource managers in the United States are confronted with increasingly complex decisions that have important ramifications for both ecological and human systems. The scientists and technical professionals at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Fort Collins Science Center (FORT) contribute a unique blend of ecological, socioeconomic, and technological expertise to investigating complicated ecological problems that address critical management questions. In Fiscal Year 2008 (FY08), FORT's scientific and technical professionals continued research vital to the science and management needs of U.S. Department of the Interior agencies and other entities. This annual report describes select FY08 accomplishments in research and technical assistance involving biological information management and delivery; aquatic, riparian, and managed-river ecosystems; invasive species; status and trends of biological resources (including human dimensions and social science); terrestrial ecosystems; and fish and wildlife resources.

Open-File Report