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On the similarity of theories of anelastic and scattering attenuation

We point out basic parallels between theories of anelastic and scattering attenuation. We consider approximations to scattering effects presented by O'Doherty and Anstey (1971), Sato (1982), and Wu (1982). We use the linear theory of anelasticity. We note that the frequency dependence of Q can be related to a distribution of scales of physical properties of the medium. The frequency dependence of anelastic Q is related to the distribution of relaxation times in exactly the same manner as the frequency dependence of scattering Q is related to the distribution of scatterer sizes. Thus, the well-known difficulty of separating scattering from intrinsic attenuation is seen from this point of view as a consequence of the fact that certain observables can be interpreted by identical equations resulting from either of two credible physical theories describing fundamentally different processes.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

Thermal waters of volcanic origin

Waters of widely differing chemical compositions have been considered at least in part volcanic in origin, and are commonly associated with each other in the same area. Do any or all of these types contain volcanic components, and if so, how are the different types derived? To determine the probable characteristics of volcanic waters, the writer has selected hot-spring groups that are particularly high in temperature and associated heat flow, are associated with late Tertiary or Quaternary volcanism, and are therefore most likely to contain some water and chemical components of direct volcanic origin. Of the different types of water that occur in these groups, one of the most common is characterized chemically by a dominance of sodium chloride. Isotopic evidence indicates that the contribution of water of direct volcanic origin is not large and is probably no more than 5 per cent in typical sodium-chloride springs. The compositions of volcanic waters are believed to be determined by: [1] type of magma and stage of crystallization; [2] temperature and pressure of the emanation at different stages during and after departure from the magma; [3] chemical composition, relative quantity, and depth of penetration of mixing meteoric water and water of other origin; and [4] reactions with wall rocks. Although the type of magma and its stage of crystallization are of major interest and have been emphasized in the past, the outstanding characteristics of volcanic emanations at and near the surface of the earth seem to be controlled for the most part by the other factors. Nonvolatile compounds are slightly to highly soluble in steam at high pressure, and high-density steam has solvent properties similar to those of liquid water. In the volcanic sodium-chloride waters, the high ratio of lithium to sodium and potassium is shown to indicate that alkalies were transported as alkali halides dissolved in a dense vapor. This in turn demands a deep circulation of meteoric water for steam to condense at high pressure and for the halides to remain in solution. The depth of circulation of meteoric water in the sodium-chloride spring systems is believed to be in the order of 2 miles. Where circulation of meteoric water is shallow, the vapors rise and expand at low pressure, which does not permit transport of substances of low volatility; some type of water other than the sodium-chloride type is formed. The common volcanic sodium-chloride waters are therefore concluded to be the diluted product of high-density emanations, modified by reactions with wall rocks and by precipitation of the less soluble components. Emanations at high temperature and relatively low pressure consist almost entirely of steam and volatile components. Their compositions are therefore relatively simple, and their ability to transport matter of low volatility is very limited. The sodium-chloride type is probably gradational into acid-sulfate-chloride waters. There is some evidence that, under conditions not well understood, sulfur may be emitted as SO 2 , SO 3 , or other sulfur species of intermediate valence, rather than as H 2 S or S. Other major types of volcanic waters are called sodium bicarbonate, acid sulfate, and calcium bicarbonate; the first two tend to be distinct, but the calcium-bicarbonate type clearly grades into the sodium-chloride type. The writer concludes that, in general, all these are derived from the sodium-chloride waters as a result of physical environment or of reactions with wall rocks.

GSA Bulletin↗

Combinatorial optimization of earthquake spatial distributions under minimum cumulative stress constraints

We determine optimal on‐fault earthquake spatial distributions using a combinatorial method that minimizes the long‐term cumulative stress resolved on the fault. An integer‐programming framework was previously developed to determine the optimal arrangement of a millennia‐scale earthquake sample that minimizes the misfit to a target slip rate determined from geodetic data. The resulting cumulative stress from just slip‐rate optimization, however, can greatly exceed fault strength estimates. Therefore, we add an objective function that minimizes cumulative stress and broad stress constraints to limit the solution space. We find that there is a trade‐off in the two objectives: minimizing the cumulative stress on a fault within fault strength limits concentrates earthquakes in specific areas of the fault and results in excursions from the target slip rate. Both slip‐rate and stress objectives can be combined in either a weighted or lexicographic (hierarchical) method. Using a combination of objectives, we demonstrate that a Gutenberg–Richter sample of earthquakes can be arranged on a constant slip‐rate finite fault with minimal stress and slip‐rate residuals. We apply this method to determine the optimal arrangement of earthquakes on the variable slip‐rate Nankai megathrust over 5000 yr. The sharp decrease in slip rate at the Tokai section of the fault results in surplus cumulative stress under all scenarios. Using stress optimization alone restricts this stress surplus to the northeast end of the fault at the expense of decreasing the slip rate away from the target slip rate at the southwest end of the fault. A combination of both slip‐rate and stress objectives provides an adequate fit to the data, although alternate model formulations for the fault are needed at the Tokai section to explain persistent excess cumulative stress. In general, incorporating stress objectives and constraints into the integer‐programming framework adds an important aspect of fault physics to the resulting earthquake rupture forecasts.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

River meanders

Most river curves have nearly the same value of the ratio of curvature radius to channel width, in the range of 2 to 3. Meanders formed by meltwater on the surface of glaciers, and by the main current of the Gulf Stream, have a relation of meander length to channel width similar to rivers. Because such meanders carry no sediment, the shapes of curves in rivers are evidently determined primarily by the dynamics of flow rather than by relation to debris load. Velocity distributions along river curves provide a generalized picture of flow characteristics. Evidence on flow resistance in curved channels suggests that a basic aspect of meander mechanics may be related to the distribution of energy loss provided by a particular configuration or curvature. No general theory of meanders is as yet satisfactory, however; in fact, present evidence suggests that no single theory will explain the formation and characteristics of all meanders and that few of the physical principles involved have yet been clearly identified.

Geological Society of America Bulletin↗

Estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods at ungaged locations on streams in Tennessee through the 2013 water year

To improve estimates of the frequency of annual peak flows for ungaged locations on non-urban, unregulated streams in Tennessee, generalized least-squares multiple linear-regression techniques were used to relate annual peak flows from streamgages operated by the U.S. Geological Survey to physical, climatic, and land-use characteristics of their drainage basins. Geospatial data acquired since the previous study in 2003, annual peak-streamflow data through the 2013 water year, and Bulletin 17C methods for frequency analysis of annual peak-streamflow data were used in the study. Generalized least-squares regression equations were developed for four hydrologic areas with distinct hydrologic, geologic, and topographic characteristics. Drainage area was used as an explanatory variable in equations developed for each hydrologic area. In addition to drainage area, a 2-year recurrence-interval climate factor was used for hydrologic area 1, a 10–85 channel slope was used for hydrologic area 2, and percent imperviousness was used for hydrologic area 4. The regression equations can be used to estimate annual exceedance probability streamflows for ungaged locations on non-urban, unregulated streams in Tennessee. The term “unregulated” indicates that streamflow is not appreciably influenced by regulation from reservoirs or other impoundments. Average standard errors of prediction for the regression equations ranged from 44.4 to 51.4 percent for hydrologic area 1; 30.4 to 42.9 percent for hydrologic area 2; 35.7 to 42.6 percent for hydrologic area 3; and 32.5 to 47.4 percent for hydrologic area 4.

Tennessee↗

The size of earthquakes

How we should measure the size of an earthquake has been historically a very important, as well as a very difficult, seismological problem. For example, figure 1 shows the loss of life caused by earthquakes in recent times and clearly demonstrates that 1976 was the worst year for earthquake casualties in the 20th century. However, the damage caused by an earthquake is due not only to its physical size but also to other factors such as where and when it occurs; thus, figure 1 is not necessarily an accurate measure of the "size" of earthquakes in 1976. the point is that the physical process underlying an earthquake is highly complex; we therefore cannot express every detail of an earthquake by a simple straightforward parameter. Indeed, it would be very convenient if we could find a single number that represents the overall physical size of an earthquake. This was in fact the concept behind the Richter magnitude scale introduced in 1935.

Earthquake Information Bulletin (USGS)↗

Strain-estimated ground motions associated with recent earthquakes in California

Peak ground velocity (PGV) is a commonly used parameter in earthquake ground‐motion models (GMMs) and hazard analyses, because it is closely related to structural damage and felt ground shaking, and is typically measured on broadband seismometers. Here, we demonstrate that strainmeters, which directly measure in situ strain in the bulk rock, can easily be related to ground velocity by a factor of bulk shear‐wave velocity and, thus, can be used to measure strain‐estimated PGV. We demonstrate the parity of velocity to strain utilizing data from borehole strainmeters deployed along the plate boundaries of the west coast of the United States for nine recent M "> M M 4.4–7.1 earthquakes in California, including the largest two events of the July 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence. PGVs derived from maximum horizontal shear strains fall within the range of seismic‐estimated values recorded at the same distances. We compare the strain‐estimated data with GMMs based on seismic PGVs and find consistency in residual polarity (positive vs. negative; the sign of the difference between observed and modeled data) for certain earthquake–station paths, where some paths indicate an overestimation and others indicate an underestimation of strain‐derived PGVs, as compared with the GMMs. We surmise that this may be indicative of over or underestimation of shear‐wave velocity along those paths, as compared with the average velocity used to derive PGV from strain measurements, or indicative of repeatable site and path effects that are not accounted for in our analyses. This direct comparison of strain with velocity can highlight physical path effects, as well as improve the density and capability of ground‐motion recordings.

California↗

Characterizing potentially induced earthquake rate changes in the Brawley Seismic Zone, southern California

The Brawley seismic zone (BSZ), in the Salton trough of southern California, has a history of earthquake swarms and geothermal energy exploitation. Some earthquake rate changes may have been induced by fluid extraction and injection activity at local geothermal fields, particularly at the North Brawley Geothermal Field (NBGF) and at the Salton Sea Geothermal Field (SSGF). We explore this issue by examining earthquake rate changes and interevent distance distributions in these fields. In Oklahoma and Arkansas, where considerable wastewater injection occurs, increases in background seismicity rate and aftershock productivity and decreases in interevent distance were indicative of fluid‐injection‐induced seismicity. Here, we test if similar changes occur that may be associated with fluid injection and extraction in geothermal areas. We use stochastic epidemic‐type aftershock sequence models to detect changes in the underlying seismogenic processes, shown by statistically significant changes in the model parameters. The most robust model changes in the SSGF roughly occur when large changes in net fluid production occur, but a similar correlation is not seen in the NBGF. Also, although both background seismicity rate and aftershock productivity increased for fluid‐injection‐induced earthquake rate changes in Oklahoma and Arkansas, the background rate increases significantly in the BSZ only, roughly corresponding with net fluid production rate increases. Moreover, in both fields the interevent spacing does not change significantly during active energy projects. This suggests that, although geothermal field activities in a tectonically active region may not significantly change the physics of earthquake interactions, earthquake rates may still be driven by fluid injection or extraction rates, particularly in the SSGF.

California↗

Seismology in South America; an interview with Alberto Giesecke

Dr. Alberto A. Giesecke is head of the Instituto Geofisico del Peru, in Lima, Peru, and Director of Centro Regional de Sismologia para America del Sur (CERESIS). The center is dedicated to the coordination and promotion of earthquake hazard mitigation. Dr. Giesecke was President of the National Research Council of Peru and currently is a member of the Board of Directors of the National Institute for Industrial Technological Research and Standards and of the National Institute for Research and Training in Telecommunications. He presided over the Organizing Committee for the General Assemblies of the International Association for Seismology and Physics of the Earth's interor and the International Union for Radio Science held in Lima, Peru, in 1973 and 1975, respectively.

Earthquake Information Bulletin (USGS)↗