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At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources
USGS2003

Variation in trophic shift for stable isotope ratios of carbon, nitrogen, and sulfur

Use of stable isotope ratios to trace pathways of organic matter among consumers requires knowledge of the isotopic shift between diet and consumer. Variation in trophic shift among consumers can be substantial. For data from the published literature and supplementary original data (excluding fluid-feeding consumers), the mean isotopic shift for C was +0.5 ?? 0.13??? rather than 0.0???, as commonly assumed. The shift for C was higher for consumers analyzed as muscle (+1.3 ?? 0.30???) than for consumers analyzed whole (+0.3 ?? 0.14???). Among consumers analyzed whole, the trophic shift for C was lower for consumers acidified prior to analysis (-0.2 ?? 0.21???) than for unacidified samples (+0.5 ?? 0.17???). For N, trophic shift was lower for consumers raised on invertebrate diets (+1.4 ?? 0.21???) than for consumers raised on other high-protein diets (+3.3 ?? 0.26???) and was intermediate for consumers raised on plant and algal diets (+2.2 ?? 0.30???). The trophic shift for S differed between high-protein (+2.0 ?? 0.65???) and low-protein diets (-0.5 ?? 0.56???). Thus, methods of analysis and dietary differences can affect trophic shift for consumers; the utility of stable isotope methods can be improved if this information is incorporated into studies of trophic relationships. Although few studies of stable isotope ratios have considered variation in the trophic shift, such variation is important because small errors in estimates of trophic shift can result in large errors in estimates of the contribution of sources to consumers or in estimates of trophic position.

Oikos↗
USGS2004

Dispersal and individual quality in a long lived species

The idea of differences in individual quality has been put forward in numerous long-term studies in long-lived species to explain differences in lifetime production among individuals. Despite the important role of individual heterogeneity in vital rates in demography, population dynamics and life history theory, the idea of 'individual quality' is elusive. It is sometimes assumed to be a static or dynamic individual characteristic. When considered as a dynamic trait, it is sometimes assumed to vary deterministically or stochastically, or to be confounded with the characteristics of the habitat. We addressed heterogeneity in reproductive performance among individuals established in higher-quality habitat in a long-lived seabird species. We used approaches to statistical inference based on individual random effects permitting quantification of heterogeneity in populations and assessment of individual variation from the population mean. We found evidence of heterogeneity in breeding probability, not success probability. We assessed the influence of dispersal on individual reproductive potential. Dispersal is likely to be destabilizing in species with high site and mate fidelity. We detected heterogeneity after dispersal, not before. Individuals may perform well regardless of quality before destabilization, including those that recruited in higher-quality habitat by chance, but only higher-quality individuals may be able to overcome the consequences of dispersal. Importantly, results differed when accounting for individual heterogeneity (an increase in mean breeding probability when individuals dispersed), or not (a decrease in mean breeding probability). In the latter case, the decrease in mean breeding probability may result from a substantial decrease in breeding probability in a few individuals and a slight increase in others. In other words, the pattern observed at the population mean level may not reflect what happens in the majority of individuals.

Oikos↗
USGS2004

Comparative dynamics of small mammal populations in treefall gaps and surrounding understorey within Amazonian rainforest

Variation in food resource availability can have profound effects on habitat selection and dynamics of populations. Previous studies reported higher food resource availability and fruit removal in treefall gaps than in the understorey. Therefore, gaps have been considered 'keystone habitat' for Neotropical frugivore birds. Here we test if this prediction would also hold for terrestrial small mammals. In the Amazon, we quantified food resource availability in eleven treefall gaps and paired understorey habitats and used feeding experiments to test if two common terrestrial rodents ( Oryzomys megacephalus and Proechimys spp.) would perceive differences between habitats. We live-trapped small mammals in eleven gaps and understorey sites for two years, and compared abundance, fitness components (survival and per capita recruitment) and dispersal of these two rodent species across gaps and understorey and seasons (rainy and dry). Our data indicated no differences in resource availability and consumption rate between habitats. Treefall gaps may represent a sink habitat for Oryzomys where individuals had lower fitness, apparently because of habitat-specific ant predation on early life stages, than in the understorey, the source habitat. Conversely, gaps may be source habitat for Proechimys where individuals had higher fitness, than in the understorey, the sink habitat. Our results suggest the presence of source-sink dynamics in a tropical gap-understorey landscape, where two rodent species perceive habitats differently. This may be a mechanism for their coexistence in a heterogeneous and species-diverse system.

World Biosphere Park Manu↗
USGS2004

Testing hypotheses for excess flower production and low fruit-to-flower ratios in a pollinating seed-consuming mutualism

Pollinator attraction, pollen limitation, resource limitation, pollen donation and selective fruit abortion have all been proposed as processes explaining why hermaphroditic plants commonly produce many more flowers than mature fruit. We conducted a series of experiments in Arizona to investigate low fruit-to-flower ratios in senita cacti, which rely exclusively on pollinating seed-consumers. Selective abortion of fruit based on seed predators is of particular interest in this case because plants relying on pollinating seed-consumers are predicted to have such a mechanism to minimize seed loss. Pollinator attraction and pollen dispersal increased with flower number, but fruit set did not, refuting the hypothesis that excess flowers increase fruit set by attracting more pollinators. Fruit set of natural- and hand-pollinated flowers were not different, supporting the resource, rather than pollen, limitation hypothesis. Senita did abort fruit, but not selectively based on pollen quantity, pollen donors, or seed predators. Collectively, these results are consistent with sex allocation theory in that resource allocation to excess flower production can increase pollen dispersal and the male fitness function of flowers, but consequently results in reduced resources available for fruit set. Inconsistent with sex allocation theory, however, fruit production and the female fitness function of flowers may actually increase with flower production. This is because excess flower production lowers pollinator-to-flower ratios and results in fruit abortion, both of which limit the abundance and hence oviposition rates, of pre-dispersal seed predators.

Arizona↗
USGS2004

Testing life history predictions in a long-lived seabird: A population matrix approach with improved parameter estimation

Life history theory and associated empirical generalizations predict that population growth rate (λ) in long-lived animals should be most sensitive to adult survival; the rates to which λ is most sensitive should be those with the smallest temporal variances; and stochastic environmental events should most affect the rates to which λ is least sensitive. To date, most analyses attempting to examine these predictions have been inadequate, their validity being called into question by problems in estimating parameters, problems in estimating the variability of parameters, and problems in measuring population sensitivities to parameters. We use improved methodologies in these three areas and test these life-history predictions in a population of red-tailed tropicbirds ( Phaethon rubricauda ). We support our first prediction that λ is most sensitive to survival rates. However the support for the second prediction that these rates have the smallest temporal variance was equivocal. Previous support for the second prediction may be an artifact of a high survival estimate near the upper boundary of 1 and not a result of natural selection canalizing variances alone. We did not support our third prediction that effects of environmental stochasticity (El Niño) would most likely be detected in vital rates to which λ was least sensitive and which are thought to have high temporal variances. Comparative data-sets on other seabirds, within and among orders, and in other locations, are needed to understand these environmental effects.

Oikos↗
USGS2004

Is predation on waterfowl nests density dependent? Tests at three spatial scales

We tested whether predation on duck nests ( Anas spp.) was density dependent at three spatial scales using artificial and natural nests in the Suisun Marsh, California, USA. At the largest spatial scale, we used 5 years (1998–2002) of data to examine the natural variation in duck nest success and nest densities among 8–16 fields per year, each 5–33 ha in size (n=62 fields). At an intermediate spatial scale, we deployed artificial nests (2000, n=280) within 1-ha plots at three experimental densities (5, 10, and 20 nests ha −1 ) in a complete randomized block design and examined differences in nest predation. At the smallest spatial scale, we examined nest success in relation to nearest-neighbor fates and distances for artificial (2000, n=280) and natural nests (2000, n=507). We detected no relationship between nest success and the density of natural nests among fields in any year, nor when we pooled data for all years after controlling for year effects. The proportion of artificial nests that survived also did not depend on experimental nest densities within 1-ha plots. Overall, 15.0±12.4%, 15.0±11.0%, and 6.2±4.3% of artificial nests survived the 32-day exposure period in the low, intermediate, and high nest densities, respectively. Additionally, we detected no consistent effect of nearest-neighbor fate or distance on the success of artificial or natural nests. Thus, our results provide no evidence of density-dependent predation on duck nests at any scale of analysis, in contrast to a number of previous studies. Variation among geographical locations in the degree to which predation is density-dependent may reflect the composition of the predator community and the availability of alternate prey.

Oikos↗
USGS2005

Modelling occurrence and abundance of species when detection is imperfect

Relationships between species abundance and occupancy are of considerable interest in metapopulation biology and in macroecology. Such relationships may be described concisely using probability models that characterize variation in abundance of a species. However, estimation of the parameters of these models in most ecological problems is impaired by imperfect detection. When organisms are detected imperfectly, observed counts are biased estimates of true abundance, and this induces bias in stated occupancy or occurrence probability. In this paper we consider a class of models that enable estimation of abundance/occupancy relationships from counts of organisms that result from surveys in which detection is imperfect. Under such models, parameter estimation and inference are based on conventional likelihood methods. We provide an application of these models to geographically extensive breeding bird survey data in which alternative models of abundance are considered that include factors that influence variation in abundance and detectability. Using these models, we produce estimates of abundance and occupancy maps that honor important sources of spatial variation in avian abundance and provide clearly interpretable characterizations of abundance and occupancy adjusted for imperfect detection.

Oikos↗
USGS2004

Demographic estimation methods for plants with unobservable life-states

Demographic estimation of vital parameters in plants with an unobservable dormant state is complicated, because time of death is not known. Conventional methods assume that death occurs at a particular time after a plant has last been seen aboveground but the consequences of assuming a particular duration of dormancy have never been tested. Capture–recapture methods do not make assumptions about time of death; however, problems with parameter estimability have not yet been resolved. To date, a critical comparative assessment of these methods is lacking. We analysed data from a 10 year study of Cleistes bifaria , a terrestrial orchid with frequent dormancy, and compared demographic estimates obtained by five varieties of the conventional methods, and two capture–recapture methods. All conventional methods produced spurious unity survival estimates for some years or for some states, and estimates of demographic rates sensitive to the time of death assumption. In contrast, capture–recapture methods are more parsimonious in terms of assumptions, are based on well founded theory and did not produce spurious estimates. In Cleistes , dormant episodes lasted for 1–4 years (mean 1.4, SD 0.74). The capture–recapture models estimated ramet survival rate at 0.86 (SE∼0.01), ranging from 0.77–0.94 (SEs≤0.1) in any one year. The average fraction dormant was estimated at 30% (SE 1.5), ranging 16–47% (SEs≤5.1) in any one year. Multistate capture–recapture models showed that survival rates were positively related to precipitation in the current year, but transition rates were more strongly related to precipitation in the previous than in the current year, with more ramets going dormant following dry years. Not all capture–recapture models of interest have estimable parameters; for instance, without excavating plants in years when they do not appear aboveground, it is not possible to obtain independent time-specific survival estimates for dormant plants. We introduce rigorous computer algebra methods to identify the parameters that are estimable in principle. As life-states are a prominent feature in plant life cycles, multistate capture–recapture models are a natural framework for analysing population dynamics of plants with dormancy.

Oikos↗
USGS2008

Movement patterns and study area boundaries: Influences on survival estimation in capture-mark-recapture studies

The inability to account for the availability of individuals in the study area during capture-mark-recapture (CMR) studies and the resultant confounding of parameter estimates can make correct interpretation of CMR model parameter estimates difficult. Although important advances based on the Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) model have resulted in estimators of true survival that work by unconfounding either death or recapture probability from availability for capture in the study area, these methods rely on the researcher's ability to select a method that is correctly matched to emigration patterns in the population. If incorrect assumptions regarding site fidelity (non-movement) are made, it may be difficult or impossible as well as costly to change the study design once the incorrect assumption is discovered. Subtleties in characteristics of movement (e.g. life history-dependent emigration, nomads vs territory holders) can lead to mixtures in the probability of being available for capture among members of the same population. The result of these mixtures may be only a partial unconfounding of emigration from other CMR model parameters. Biologically-based differences in individual movement can combine with constraints on study design to further complicate the problem. Because of the intricacies of movement and its interaction with other parameters in CMR models, quantification of and solutions to these problems are needed. Based on our work with stream-dwelling populations of Atlantic salmon Salmo salar, we used a simulation approach to evaluate existing CMR models under various mixtures of movement probabilities. The Barker joint data model provided unbiased estimates of true survival under all conditions tested. The CJS and robust design models provided similarly unbiased estimates of true survival but only when emigration information could be incorporated directly into individual encounter histories. For the robust design model, Markovian emigration (future availability for capture depends on an individual's current location) was a difficult emigration pattern to detect unless survival and especially recapture probability were high. Additionally, when local movement was high relative to study area boundaries and movement became more diffuse (e.g. a random walk), local movement and permanent emigration were difficult to distinguish and had consequences for correctly interpreting the survival parameter being estimated (apparent survival vs true survival). ?? 2008 The Authors.

Oikos↗
USGS2010

Interactive effects of senescence and natural disturbance on the annual survival probabilities of snail kites

Individuals in wild populations face risks associated with both intrinsic (i.e. aging) and external (i.e. environmental) sources of mortality. Condition-dependent mortality occurs when there is an interaction between such factors; however, few studies have clearly demonstrated condition-dependent mortality and some have even argued that condition-dependent mortality does not occur in wild avian populations. Using large sample sizes (2084 individuals, 3746 re-sights) of individual-based longitudinal data collected over a 33 year period (1976-2008) on multiple cohorts, we used a capture-mark-recapture framework to model age-dependent survival in the snail kite Rostrhamus sociabilis plumbeus population in Florida. Adding to the growing amount of evidence for actuarial senescence in wild populations, we found evidence of senescent declines in survival probabilities in adult kites. We also tested the hypothesis that older kites experienced condition-dependent mortality during a range-wide drought event (2000-2002). The results provide convincing evidence that the annual survival probability of senescent kites was disproportionately affected by the drought relative to the survival probability of prime-aged adults. To our knowledge, this is the first evidence of condition-dependent mortality to be demonstrated in a wild avian population, a finding which challenges recent conclusions drawn in the literature. Our study suggests that senescence and condition-dependent mortality can affect the demography of wild avian populations. Accounting for these sources of variation may be particularly important to appropriately compute estimates of population growth rate, and probabilities of quasi-extinctions.

Oikos↗
USGS2011

A nematomorph parasite explains variation in terrestrial subsidies to trout streams in Japan

Nematomorph parasites alter the behavior of their orthopteran hosts, driving them to water and creating a source of food for stream salmonids. We investigated whether nematomorphs could explain variation in terrestrial subsidies across several streams. In nine study streams, orthopterans comprise much of the stomach contents of trout (46 ± 31% on average). Total mass of ingested prey per trout biomass positively correlated with the mass of orthopterans ingested, suggesting that the orthopterans enhanced absolute mass of prey consumption by the trout population. The orthopterans ingested per trout biomass positively correlated with the abundance of nematomorphs in the stream, but not with the abundance of camel crickets (the dominant hosts) around the streams. Streams in conifer plantations had fewer nematomorphs than streams in natural deciduous forests. These results provide the first quantitative evidence that a manipulative parasite can explain variation in the allochthonous energy flow through and across ecosystems.

Oikos↗
USGS2011

Characteristics of foraging sites and protein status in wintering muskoxen: insights from isotopes of nitrogen

Identifying links between nutritional condition of individuals and population trajectories greatly enhances our understanding of the ecology, conservation, and management of wildlife. For northern ungulates, the potential impacts of a changing climate to populations are predicted to be nutritionally mediated through an increase in the severity and variance in winter conditions. Foraging conditions and the availability of body protein as a store for reproduction in late winter may constrain productivity in northern ungulates, yet the link between characteristics of wintering habitats and protein status has not been established for a wild ungulate. We used a non‐invasive proxy of protein status derived from isotopes of N in excreta to evaluate the influence of winter habitats on the protein status of muskoxen in three populations in Alaska (2005–2008). Multiple regression and an information‐theoretic approach were used to compare models that evaluated the influence of population, year, and characteristics of foraging sites (components of diet and physiography) on protein status for groups of muskoxen. The observed variance in protein status among groups of muskoxen across populations and years was partially explained (45%) by local foraging conditions that affected forage availability. Protein status improved for groups of muskoxen as the amount of graminoids in the diet increased (−0.430 ± 0.31, β± 95% CI) and elevation of foraging sites decreased (0.824 ± 0.67). Resources available for reproduction in muskoxen are highly dependent upon demographic, environmental, and physiographic constraints that affect forage availability in winter. Due to their very sedentary nature in winter, muskoxen are highly susceptible to localized foraging conditions; therefore, the spatial variance in resource availability may exert a strong effect on productivity. Consequently, there is a clear need to account for climate–topography effects in winter at multiple scales when predicting the potential impacts of climatic shifts on population trajectories of muskoxen.

Oikos↗
USGS2011

Hierarchical spatial structure of stream fish colonization and extinction

Spatial variation in extinction and colonization is expected to influence community composition over time. In stream fish communities, local species richness (alpha diversity) and species turnover (beta diversity) are thought to be regulated by high extinction rates in headwater streams and high colonization rates in downstream areas. We evaluated the spatiotemporal structure of fish communities in streams originally surveyed by Burton and Odum 1945 (Ecology 26: 182-194) in Virginia, USA and explored the effects of species traits on extinction and colonization dynamics. We documented dramatic changes in fish community structure at both the site and stream scales. Of the 34 fish species observed, 20 (59%) were present in both time periods, but 11 (32%) colonized the study area and three (9%) were extirpated over time. Within streams, alpha diversity increased in two of three streams but beta diversity decreased dramatically in all streams due to fish community homogenization caused by colonization of common species and extirpation of rare species. Among streams, however, fish communities differentiated over time. Regression trees indicated that reproductive life-history traits such as spawning mound construction, associations with mound-building species, and high fecundity were important predictors of species persistence or colonization. Conversely, native fishes not associated with mound-building exhibited the highest rates of extirpation from streams. Our results demonstrate that stream fish colonization and extinction dynamics exhibit hierarchical spatial structure and suggest that mound-building fishes serve as keystone species for colonization of headwater streams.

Oikos↗
USGS2012

Seed harvesting by a generalist consumer is context-dependent: Interactive effects across multiple spatial scales

Granivore foraging decisions affect consumer success and determine the quantity and spatial pattern of seed survival. These decisions are influenced by environmental variation at spatial scales ranging from landscapes to local foraging patches. In a field experiment, the effects of seed patch variation across three spatial scales on seed removal by western harvester ants Pogonomyrmex occidentalis were evaluated. At the largest scale we assessed harvesting in different plant communities, at the intermediate scale we assessed harvesting at different distances from ant mounds, and at the smallest scale we assessed the effects of interactions among seed species in local seed neighborhoods on seed harvesting (i.e. resource–consumer interface). Selected seed species were presented alone (monospecific treatment) and in mixture with Bromus tectorum (cheatgrass; mixture treatment) at four distances from P. occidentalis mounds in adjacent intact sagebrush and non-native cheatgrass-dominated communities in the Great Basin, Utah, USA. Seed species differed in harvest, with B. tectorum being least preferred. Large and intermediate scale variation influenced harvest. More seeds were harvested in sagebrush than in cheatgrass-dominated communities (largest scale), and the quantity of seed harvested varied with distance from mounds (intermediate-scale), although the form of the distance effect differed between plant communities. At the smallest scale, seed neighborhood affected harvest, but the patterns differed among seed species considered. Ants harvested fewer seeds from mixed-seed neighborhoods than from monospecific neighborhoods, suggesting context dependence and potential associational resistance. Further, the effects of plant community and distance from mound on seed harvest in mixtures differed from their effects in monospecific treatments. Beyond the local seed neighborhood, selection of seed resources is better understood by simultaneously evaluating removal at multiple scales. Associational effects provide a useful theoretical basis for better understanding harvester ant foraging decisions. These results demonstrate the importance of ecological context for seed removal, which has implications for seed pools, plant populations and communities.

Oikos↗
USGS2012

Direct and indirect effects of land use on floral resources and flower-visiting insects across an urban landscape

Although urban areas are often considered to have uniformly negative effects on biodiversity, cities are most accurately characterized as heterogeneous mosaics of buildings, streets, parks, and gardens that include both ‘good’ and ‘bad’ areas for wildlife. However, to date, few studies have evaluated how human impacts vary in direction and magnitude across a heterogeneous urban landscape. In this study, we assessed the distribution of floral resources and flower-visiting insects across a variety of land uses in New York City. We visited both green spaces (e.g. parks, cemeteries) and heavily developed neighborhood blocks (e.g. with high or low density residential zoning) and used structural equation modeling (SEM) to evaluate the direct and indirect effects of median income, vegetation, and development intensity on floral resources and insects in both settings. Abundance and taxonomic richness of flower-visiting insects was significantly greater in green spaces than neighborhood blocks. The SEM results indicated that heavily-developed neighborhoods generally had fewer flower-visiting insects consistent with reductions in floral resources. However, some low-density residential neighborhoods maintained high levels of floral resources and flower-visiting insects. We found that the effects of surrounding vegetation on floral resources, and thus indirect effects on insects, varied considerably between green spaces and neighborhood blocks. Along neighborhood blocks, vegetation consisted of a mosaic of open gardens and sparsely distributed trees and had a positive indirect effect on flower-visiting insects. In contrast, vegetation in urban green spaces was associated with increased canopy cover and thus had a negative indirect effect on flower-visiting insects through reductions in floral resources. In both neighborhood blocks and green spaces, vegetation had a positive direct effect on flower-visiting insects independent of the influence of vegetation on floral resources. Our results demonstrate how inter-related components of an urban ecosystem can vary with respect to one another across a heterogeneous urban landscape, suggesting that it is inappropriate to generalize about urban systems as a whole without first addressing differences among component land use types.

Oikos↗
USGS2013

Parasites as prey in aquatic food webs: implications for predator infection and parasite transmission

While the recent inclusion of parasites into food-web studies has highlighted the role of parasites as consumers, there is accumulating evidence that parasites can also serve as prey for predators. Here we investigated empirical patterns of predation on parasites and their relationships with parasite transmission in eight topological food webs representing marine and freshwater ecosystems. Within each food web, we examined links in the typical predator–prey sub web as well as the predator–parasite sub web, i.e. the quadrant of the food web indicating which predators eat parasites. Most predator– parasite links represented ‘concomitant predation’ (consumption and death of a parasite along with the prey/host; 58–72%), followed by ‘trophic transmission’ (predator feeds on infected prey and becomes infected; 8–32%) and predation on free-living parasite life-cycle stages (4–30%). Parasite life-cycle stages had, on average, between 4.2 and 14.2 predators. Among the food webs, as predator richness increased, the number of links exploited by trophically transmitted parasites increased at about the same rate as did the number of links where these stages serve as prey. On the whole, our analyses suggest that predation on parasites has important consequences for both predators and parasites, and food web structure. Because our analysis is solely based on topological webs, determining the strength of these interactions is a promising avenue for future research.

Oikos↗
USGS2014

Adaptive nest clustering and density-dependent nest survival in dabbling ducks

Density-dependent population regulation is observed in many taxa, and understanding the mechanisms that generate density dependence is especially important for the conservation of heavily-managed species. In one such system, North American waterfowl, density dependence is often observed at continental scales, and nest predation has long been implicated as a key factor driving this pattern. However, despite extensive research on this topic, it remains unclear if and how nest density influences predation rates. Part of this confusion may have arisen because previous studies have studied density-dependent predation at relatively large spatial and temporal scales. Because the spatial distribution of nests changes throughout the season, which potentially influences predator behavior, nest survival may vary through time at relatively small spatial scales. As such, density-dependent nest predation might be more detectable at a spatially- and temporally-refined scale and this may provide new insights into nest site selection and predator foraging behavior. Here, we used three years of data on nest survival of two species of waterfowl, mallards and gadwall, to more fully explore the relationship between local nest clustering and nest survival. Throughout the season, we found that the distribution of nests was consistently clustered at small spatial scales (˜50–400 m), especially for mallard nests, and that this pattern was robust to yearly variation in nest density and the intensity of predation. We demonstrated further that local nest clustering had positive fitness consequences – nests with closer nearest neighbors were more likely to be successful, a result that is counter to the general assumption that nest predation rates increase with nest density.

California↗
USGS2014

Testing metapopulation concepts: effects of patch characteristics and neighborhood occupancy on the dynamics of an endangered lagomorph

Metapopulation ecology is a field that is richer in theory than in empirical results. Many existing empirical studies use an incidence function approach based on spatial patterns and key assumptions about extinction and colonization rates. Here we recast these assumptions as hypotheses to be tested using 18 years of historic detection survey data combined with four years of data from a new monitoring program for the Lower Keys marsh rabbit. We developed a new model to estimate probabilities of local extinction and colonization in the presence of nondetection, while accounting for estimated occupancy levels of neighboring patches. We used model selection to identify important drivers of population turnover and estimate the effective neighborhood size for this system. Several key relationships related to patch size and isolation that are often assumed in metapopulation models were supported: patch size was negatively related to the probability of extinction and positively related to colonization, and estimated occupancy of neighboring patches was positively related to colonization and negatively related to extinction probabilities. This latter relationship suggested the existence of rescue effects. In our study system, we inferred that coastal patches experienced higher probabilities of extinction and colonization than interior patches. Interior patches exhibited higher occupancy probabilities and may serve as refugia, permitting colonization of coastal patches following disturbances such as hurricanes and storm surges. Our modeling approach should be useful for incorporating neighbor occupancy into future metapopulation analyses and in dealing with other historic occupancy surveys that may not include the recommended levels of sampling replication.

Florida↗