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At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

Associations between environmental pollutants and larval amphibians in wetlands contaminated by energy-related brines are potentially mediated by feeding traits

Energy production in the Williston Basin, located in the Prairie Pothole Region of central North America, has increased rapidly over the last several decades. Advances in recycling and disposal practices of saline wastewaters (brines) co-produced during energy production have reduced ecological risks, but spills still occur often and legacy practices of releasing brines into the environment caused persistent salinization in many areas. Aside from sodium and chloride, these brines contain elevated concentrations of metals and metalloids (lead, selenium, strontium, antimony and vanadium), ammonium, volatile organic compounds, hydrocarbons, and radionuclides. Amphibians are especially sensitive to chloride and some metals, increasing potential effects in wetlands contaminated by brines. We collected bed sediment and larval amphibians ( Ambystoma mavortium , Lithobates pipiens and Pseudacris maculata ) from wetlands in Montana and North Dakota representing a range of brine contamination history and severity to determine if contamination was associated with metal concentrations in sediments and if metal accumulation in tissues varied by species. In wetland sediments, brine contamination was positively associated with the concentrations of sodium and strontium, both known to occur in oil and gas wastewater, but negatively correlated with mercury. In amphibian tissues, selenium and vanadium were associated with brine contamination. Metal tissue concentrations were higher in tadpoles that graze compared to predatory salamanders; this suggests frequent contact with the sediments could lead to greater ingestion of metal-laden materials. Although many of these metals may not be directly linked with energy development, the potential additive or synergistic effects of exposure along with elevated chloride from brines could have important consequences for aquatic organisms. To effectively manage amphibian populations in wetlands contaminated by saline wastewaters we need a better understanding of how life history traits, species-specific susceptibilities and the physical-chemical properties of metals co-occurring in wetland sediments interact with other stressors like chloride and wetland drying.

Williston Basin↗

Use of water developments by female elk at Theodore Roosevelt National Park, North Dakota

Development of water sources for wildlife is a widespread management practice with a long history; however, needs of wildlife and availability of water depend on myriad interacting factors that vary among species and localities. Benefits are therefore situational, establishing a need for evaluation of water use in varied settings. We used global-positioning-system (GPS) collars and time-lapse videography to estimate the distribution of elk ( Cervus elaphus ) activity and frequency of water-development use at Theodore Roosevelt National Park, North Dakota, during June–September, 2003–2006. Elk were located further than expected from the Little Missouri River and did not preferentially use areas near developments. Of 26,081 relocations obtained at 7-h intervals, 88% were >800 m and 74% were >1600 m from permanent surface water. Elk were videotaped at water developments on 90 occasions during 19,402 h of monitoring but used water in only 52% of cases ( SE = 5.3%). The probability of detecting elk at developments during visits was 0.51 ( SE = 0.08). Nevertheless, elk tracked with GPS collars at 15-min intervals approached to within 100 m of developments on only 2.7% ( SE = 0.6%) of 766 days, and approached randomly selected locations nearly as frequently (x¯ = 2.2%, SE = 0.13%). Our results do not rule out use of drinking water by elk at THRO; however, elk were not dependent on water from developments or the Little Missouri River. Prevailing perceptions of water use by elk derive primarily from general associations of elk activity with locations of water sources. Technological advances that permit nearly continuous, precise monitoring present an opportunity to improve understanding of water use by elk, incidental to other investigations.

North Dakota↗

Lessons learned from wetlands research at the Cottonwood Lake Study Area, Stutsman County, North Dakota, 1967–2021

Depressional wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region of North America have a long history of investigation owing to their importance in maintaining migratory-bird populations, especially waterfowl. One area of particularly intensive study is the Cottonwood Lake study area in Stutsman County, North Dakota. Studies at the Cottonwood Lake study area began in 1967 and continue through the present (2022). During this period of scientific discovery, meteorological conditions at the Cottonwood Lake study area varied greatly and included one of the most severe droughts of the 20th century and one of the wettest periods in the past 500 years. Persistent wet conditions that began in 1993 have contributed to state changes in many of the study area’s larger wetlands to lake-like conditions, whereas the smaller wetlands returned to seasonally ponded conditions during relatively dry years interspersed within the longer-term wet period. Additionally, some nonwetland areas of the study area developed wetland plant, hydrology, and soil characteristics during the 1993-to-present (2022) wet period. The persistently high stages of water in the larger wetlands since 1993 contributed to a buildup of dissolved solids and increases in salinity with time following an initial decrease in salinity caused by the dilution of dissolved solids within a larger volume of water. During 2021, drought conditions similar to the 1988 to 1992 period may develop if conditions persist. However, meteorological changes during the past 30 years have persisted long enough to be considered a change in climate conditions at the study area and, if such wet conditions continue, would represent a change from conditions that occurred in the past two millennia. During the period of study covered in this report (1967–2021), biotic communities responded in a variety of ways to subtle and marked changes in ponded-water depths, permanence, and salinity among the different wetland types in the study area. This report provides background information on the Cottonwood Lake study area and its context within the Prairie Pothole Region, documents techniques used to quantify environmental conditions and biotic communities, describes major trends that have been observed, presents significant findings as “lessons learned,” discusses recent modeling advances, and highlights key messages to managers. The Wetland Continuum concept was used as a framework to place research findings within an ecological context and to highlight the dynamic nature of prairie-pothole wetland ecosystems.

North Dakota↗

Potential effects of energy development on environmental resources of the Williston Basin in Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota—Physiography, climate, land use, and demographics

The Williston Basin has been a leading domestic oil and gas producing region. As energy demands have increased, so has energy development. A group of 13 Federal agencies and Tribal groups formed the Bakken Federal Executive Group to address common challenges associated with energy development, with a focus on understanding the cumulative environmental challenges attributed to oil and gas development throughout the basin. To better understand the natural resources in the Williston Basin, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Bureau of Land Management, began work to synthesize existing information on science topics that will support management decisions related to energy development. This report is a compilation of information regarding the natural setting, energy development history, demographics, and related investigations related to energy development in the Williston Basin of Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota. Completed and ongoing investigations include the topical areas of unconventional oil and gas assessments, water quality, water availability, air quality, effects on human health, and ecological effects.

Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota↗

Alien plant invasion in mixed-grass prairie: Effects of vegetation type and anthropogenic disturbance

The ability of alien plant species to invade a region depends not only on attributes of the plant, but on characteristics of the habitat being invaded. Here, we examine characteristics that may influence the success of alien plant invasion in mixed-grass prairie at Theodore Roosevelt National Park, in western North Dakota, USA. The park consists of two geographically separate units with similar vegetation types and management history, which allowed us to examine the effects of native vegetation type, anthropogenic disturbance, and the separate park units on the invasion of native plant communities by alien plant species common to counties surrounding both park units. If matters of chance related to availability of propagules and transient establishment opportunities determine the success of invasion, park unit and anthropogenic disturbance should better explain the variation in alien plant frequency. If invasibility is more strongly related to biotic or physical characteristics of the native plant communities, models of alien plant occurrence should include vegetation type as an explanatory variable. We examined >1300 transects across all vegetation types in both units of the park. Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) indicated that the fully parameterized model, including the interaction among vegetation type, disturbance, and park unit, best described the distribution of both total number of alien plants per transect and frequency of alien plants on transects where they occurred. Although all vegetation types were invaded by alien plants, mesic communities had both greater numbers and higher frequencies of alien plants than did drier communities. A strong element of stochasticity, reflected in differences in frequencies of individual species between the two park units, suggests that prediction of risk of invasion will always involve uncertainty. In addition, despite well-documented associations between anthropogenic disturbance and alien plant invasion, five of the six most abundant alien species at Theodore Roosevelt National Park had distributions unrelated to disturbance. We recommend that vegetation type be explicitly taken into account when designing monitoring plans for alien species in natural areas.

North Dakota↗

Sparrow nest survival in relation to prescribed fire and woody plant invasion in a northern mixed-grass prairie

Prescribed fire is used to reverse invasion by woody vegetation on grasslands, but managers often are uncertain whether influences of shrub and tree reduction outweigh potential effects of fire on nest survival of grassland birds. During the 2001–2003 breeding seasons, we examined relationships of prescribed fire and woody vegetation to nest survival of clay-colored sparrow ( Spizella pallida ) and Savannah sparrow ( Passerculus sandwichensis ) in mixed-grass prairie at Des Lacs National Wildlife Refuge in northwestern North Dakota, USA. We assessed relationships of nest survival to 1) recent fire history, in terms of number of breeding seasons (2, 3, or 4–5) since the last prescribed fire, and 2) prevalence of trees and tall (>1.5 m) shrubs in the landscape and of low (≤1.5 m) shrubs within 5 m of nests. Nest survival of both species exhibited distinct patterns related to age of the nest and day of year, but bore no relationship to fire history. Survival of clay-colored sparrow nests declined as the amount of trees and tall shrubs within 100 m increased, but we found no relationship to suggest nest parasitism by brown-headed cowbirds ( Molothrus ater ) as an underlying mechanism. We found little evidence linking nest survival of Savannah sparrow to woody vegetation. Our results suggest that fire can be used to restore northern mixed-grass prairies without adversely affecting nest survival of ≥2 widespread passerine species. Survival of nests of clay-colored sparrow may increase when tall woody cover is reduced by fire. Our data lend support to the use of fire for reducing scattered patches of tall woody cover to enhance survival of nests of ≥1 grassland bird species in northern mixed-grass prairies, but further study is needed that incorporates experimental approaches and assessments of shorter term effects of fire on survival of nests of grassland passerines.

North Dakota↗

Time-specific patterns of nest survival for ducks and passerines breeding in North Dakota

In many bird species, survival can vary with the age of the nest, with the date a nest was initiated, or among years within the same nesting area. A literature review showed that patterns of survival vary in relation to nest age and date and are often contradictory. Inconsistencies could be a result of temporal variation in the environment or life-history differences among species. We examined patterns of nest survival in relation to nest age, date, and year for several duck and passerine species nesting at a single location in North Dakota during 1998–2003. We predicted that if environment shaped nest survival patterns, then temporal patterns in survival might be similar among three species of upland nesting ducks, and also among three species of grassland passerines nesting at the same site. We expected that survival patterns would differ between ducks and passerines because of relatively disparate life histories and differences in predators that prey on their nests. Nest survival was rarely constant among years, seasonally, or with age of the nest for species that we studied. As predicted, the pattern of survival was similar among duck species, driven mainly by differences in nest survival associated with nest initiation date. The pattern of survival also was similar among passerine species, but nest survival was more influenced by nest age than by date. Our findings suggest that some but not all variation in temporal patterns of nest survival in grassland birds reported in the literature can be explained on the basis of temporal environmental variation. Because patterns of survival were dissimilar among ducks and passerines, it is likely that mechanisms such as predation or brood parasitism have variable influences on productivity of ducks and passerines nesting in the same area. Our results indicate that biologists and managers should not assume that temporal environmental variations, especially factors that affect nest survival, act similarly on all grassland birds.

North Dakota↗

High-resolution leaf-fossil record spanning the Cretaceous/ Tertiary boundary

Theories t hat explain the extinctions characterizing the Cretaceous/Tertiary (K/T) boundary 1-3 need to be tested by analyses of thoroughly sampled biotas. Palynological studies are the primary means for stratigraphic placement of the terrestrial boundary and for estimates of plant extinction 4-12 , but have not been combined with quantitative analyses of fossil leaves (megaflora). Megafloral studies complement palynology by representing local floras with assemblages capable of high taxonomic resolution 13 , but have previously lacked the sample size and stratigraphic spacing needed to resolve latest Cretaceous floral history 5,14-18 . We have now combined megafloral data from a 100-m-thick composite K/T boundary section in North Dakota with detailed palynological analysis. Here the boundary is marked by a 30% palynofloral extinction coincident with iridium and shocked-mineral anomalies and lies ∼ 2 m above the highest dinosaur remains. The megaflora undergoes a 79% turnover across the boundary, and smaller changes 17- and 25-m below it. This pattern is consistent with latest Cretaceous climatic warming preceding a bolide impact.

Nature↗

Clinal patterns in genetic variation for northern leopard frog ( Rana pipiens ): Conservation status and population histories

The security of the northern leopard frog ( Rana pipiens) varies spatially with populations east and west of North Dakota considered as secure and at risk, respectively. We used genetic markers to characterize the conservation status of northern leopard frog populations across North Dakota. We used multiple regression analyses and model selection to evaluate correlations of expected heterozygosity ( H E ) with the direct and additive effects of: i ) geographic location, ii ) wetland density and iii ) average annual precipitation . There was lower genetic diversity in the western portion of the state due to lower levels of diversity for populations southwest of the Missouri River. This may reflect a refugial/colonization signature for the only non-glaciated area of North Dakota. Genetic diversity was also positively associated with wetland densities which is consistent with the reliance of this species on a mosaic of wetlands. Our findings suggest that populations in the southwestern part of North Dakota are of higher conservation concern, a finding consistent with the higher risk noted for northern leopard frog populations in most states west of North Dakota. Our findings also pose the hypothesis that climate change induced changes in wetland densities will reduce genetic diversity of northern leopard frog populations.

North Dakota↗

Modeling the maturation history of the stacked petroleum systems of the Williston Basin, USA

A three-dimensional petroleum systems model was built to support U.S. Geological Survey assessments of undiscovered oil and gas resources in the Williston Basin of North Dakota, Montana, and South Dakota. Numerous Paleozoic source rocks have been proven or postulated in the basin, of which five were the focus of maturation and migration modeling: the Ordovician Icebox Formation, the kukersite beds of the Ordovician Red River Formation, the shales of the Devonian–Mississippian Bakken Formation, the Mississippian Madison Group, and the Pennsylvanian Tyler Formation. Calibration of the three-dimensional model to present-day temperature data indicates the existence of a north-south trend of high heat flow in western North Dakota, along with a region of high heat flow in eastern Montana. These high heat flow trends strongly control the maturity of all studied source intervals. A Bakken-specific hydrocarbon generation kinetic model was developed to match the calibrated time-temperature history of the basin to spatial trends in hydrogen index from programmed pyrolysis data. Generation of hydrocarbons occurred in the Cretaceous through Paleogene due to increased burial. Subsequent uplift and erosion in the Neogene cooled the basin, ending hydrocarbon generation for all source rocks. The cumulative volume of hydrocarbons generated by each of the source rocks was calculated and used to compare their relative robustness. The shales of the Bakken Formation are estimated to have generated approximately 460 billion barrels of oil equivalent (BBOE), while the Red River Formation generated approximately 130 BBOE, the Tyler Formation 94 BBOE, the Madison Group 44 BBOE, and the Icebox Formation 28 BBOE. Gross migration trends were analyzed with respect to historical oil and gas production in the basin and generally indicate segregation of petroleum systems throughout the stratigraphic column. However, most modeled scenarios indicated significant loss of Bakken oil to the Madison Group, suggesting that mixing of Madison and Bakken oils may be more prevalent than has recently been recognized in the U.S. portion of the Williston Basin and is particularly likely in fractured regions of the basin.

Montana, North Dakota↗

Ducks and passerines nesting in northern mixed-grass prairie treated with fire

Prescribed fire is an important, ecology-driven tool for restoration of grassland systems. However, prescribed fire remains controversial for some grassland managers because of reported reductions in bird use of recently burned grasslands. Few studies have evaluated effects of fire on grassland bird populations in the northern mixed-grass prairie region. Fewer studies yet have examined the influence of fire on nest density or survival. In our review, we found no studies that simultaneously examined effects of fire on duck and passerine nesting. During 1998—2003, we examined effects of prescribed fire on the density of upland-nesting ducks and passerines nesting in north-central North Dakota, USA. Apparent nest densities of gadwall ( Anas strepera ), mallard ( A. platyrhynchos ), and all duck species combined, were influenced by fire history of study units, although the degree of influence was not compelling. Fire history was not related to nest densities of blue-winged teal ( A. discors ), northern shoveler ( A. clypeata ), or northern pintail ( A. acuta ); however, apparent nest densities in relation to the number of postfire growing seasons exhibited a strikingly similar pattern among all duck species. When compared to ducks, fire history strongly influenced apparent nest densities of clay-colored sparrow ( Spizella pallida ), Savannah sparrow ( Passerculus sandwichensis ), and bobolink ( Dolichonyx oryzivorus ). For most species examined, apparent nest densities were lowest in recently burned units, increased during the second postfire growing season, and stabilized or, in some cases, decreased thereafter. Prescribed fire is critical for restoring the ecology of northern mixed-grass prairies and our findings indicate that reductions in nest densities are limited mostly to the first growing season after fire. Our results support the premise that upland-nesting ducks and several grassland passerine species are adapted to periodic fires occurring at a frequency similar to that of pre-Euro-American settlement of the region.

North Dakota↗

Legacy data for a northern prairie grassland: Woodworth Study Area, North Dakota, 1963-89

Ecological data commonly become more valuable through time. Such legacy data provide baseline records of past biological, physical, and social information that provide historical perspective and are necessary for assessment of stasis or change. Legacy data collected at the Woodworth Study Area (WSA), a contiguous block of grasslands, croplands, and wetlands covering more than 1,000 hectares of the Prairie Pothole Region of North Dakota, are cataloged and summarized in this study. The WSA is one of the longest researched grassland sites in the Upper Midwest. It has an extensive history of settlement, land use, and management that provides a deeper context for future research. The WSA data include long-term vegetation transect records, land use history, habitat management records, geologic information, wetland hydrology and chemistry information, and spatial images. Substantial parts of these data have not been previously reported. The WSA is representative of many other lands purchased by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service in the Prairie Pothole Region from the 1930s to the 1970s; therefore, synthesized data from the WSA are broadly applicable to topics of concern in northern grasslands, such as increases in non-native plants, managing for biodiversity, and long-term effects of habitat management. New techniques are also described that were used to preserve these data for future analyses. The data preservation techniques are applicable to any project with data that should be preserved for 100 years or more.

North Dakota↗

Introduction and methods of analysis for peak streamflow trends and their relation to changes in climate in Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin

Flood-frequency analysis, also called peak-flow frequency or flood-flow frequency analysis, is essential to water resources management applications including critical structure design and floodplain mapping. Federal guidelines for doing flood-frequency analyses are presented in a U.S. Geological Survey Techniques and Methods Report known as Bulletin 17C. A basic assumption within Bulletin 17C is that for drainage basins without major hydrologic alterations, statistical properties of the distribution of annual peak streamflows (peak flows) are stationary; that is, the mean, variance, and skew are constant. The stationarity assumption has been widely accepted within the flood-frequency community; however, a better understanding of long-term climatic persistence and concerns about potential climate change and land-use change has caused a reexamination of the stationarity assumption. Flood-frequency analyses that do not incorporate observed trends and abrupt changes may result in a poor representation of the true flood risk. Bulletin 17C does not offer guidance for incorporating nonstationarities when estimating floods, and it describes a need for studies that incorporate changing climate or basin characteristics. In response to this need and a history of concern regarding nonstationarity peak flows in the region, this study was done by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Departments of Transportation of Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, South Dakota, and Wisconsin; the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation; and the North Dakota Department of Water Resources, to assess potential nonstationarity in peak flows in the north-central United States. This chapter summarizes the methods used to detect hydroclimatic changes in peak-flow data in the study region. A wide range of analyses and statistical approaches are applied to document the primary mechanisms controlling floods and characterize temporal changes in hydroclimatic variables and peak flow. Four periods were selected for analysis of peak flow, daily streamflow, and climate data. The periods are (1) a 100-year period, 1921–2020; (2) a 75-year period, 1946–2020; (3) a 50-year period, 1971–2020; and (4) a 30-year period, 1991–2020. The climate data consist of monthly time series estimates of temperature, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, snowfall, soil moisture storage, snow water equivalent, and runoff on a 3.1-mile by 3.1-mile grid for the conterminous United States. Statistical and graphical analyses were used to investigate potential changes in hydrology and climate. The starting point for these analyses was the initial data analysis of peak flow described in Bulletin 17C, which includes plotting the peak flow and checking for autocorrelation, monotonic trends, and changes points. Analyses were added to examine additional features in the data. To examine potential causal drivers of changes, the climate data were analyzed graphically and statistically. Results are provided in a U.S. Geological Survey data release. The study limitations are documented for users of the results.

Iowa, Illinois, Michigan, Missouri, Minnesota, Mon↗

Quaternary geologic map of the Wolf Point 1° × 2° quadrangle, Montana and North Dakota

The Wolf Point quadrangle encompasses approximately 16,084 km 2 (6,210 mi 2 ). The northern boundary is the Montana/Saskatchewan (U.S.-Canada) boundary. The quadrangle is in the Northern Plains physiographic province and it includes the Peerless Plateau and Flaxville Plain. The primary river is the Missouri River. The map units are surficial deposits and materials, not landforms. Deposits that comprise some constructional landforms (for example, ground-moraine deposits, end-moraine deposits, and stagnation-moraine deposits, all composed of till) are distinguished for purposes of reconstruction of glacial history. Surficial deposits and materials are assigned to 23 map units on the basis of genesis, age, lithology or composition, texture or particle size, and other physical, chemical, and engineering characteristics. It is not a map of soils that are recognized in pedology or agronomy. Rather, it is a generalized map of soils recognized in engineering geology, or of substrata or parent materials in which pedologic or agronomic soils are formed. Glaciotectonic (ice-thrust) structures and deposits are mapped separately, represented by a symbol. The surficial deposits are glacial, ice-contact, glaciofluvial, alluvial, lacustrine, eolian, colluvial, and mass-movement deposits. Till of late Wisconsin age is represented by three map units. Till of Illinoian age also is mapped. Till deposited during pre-Illinoian glaciations is not mapped, but is widespread in the subsurface. Linear ice-molded landforms (primarily drumlins), shown by symbol, indicate directions of ice flow during late Wisconsin and Illinoian glaciations. The Quaternary geologic map of the Wolf Point quadrangle, northeastern Montana and North Dakota, was prepared to provide a database for compilation of a Quaternary geologic map of the Regina 4° × 6° quadrangle, United States and Canada, at scale 1:1,000,000, for the U.S. Geological Survey Quaternary Geologic Atlas of the United States map series. This map was compiled from data from many sources, at several different map scales. That information was generalized and simplified, and then transferred to a base map at 1:250,000 scale to serve as the base for final reduction to 1:1,000,000, the nominal reading scale of maps in the Quaternary Geologic Atlas of the United States map series. This map is the generalized and simplified 1:250,000 scale compilation. Letter symbols for the map units are those used for the same units in the Quaternary Geologic Atlas of the United States map series. The map summarizes new, and selected published and unpublished, geologic information for public use and for use by Federal, State, and local governmental agencies for land use planning, including assessment of natural resources, natural hazards, recreation potential, and land use management. It also is a base from which a variety of maps relating to earth surface processes and Quaternary geologic history can be derived.

Montana, North Dakota↗

Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center

The Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center (NPWRC) conducts integrated research to fulfill the Department of the Interior's responsibilities to the Nation's natural resources. Located on 600 acres along the James River Valley near Jamestown, North Dakota, the NPWRC develops and disseminates scientific information needed to understand, conserve, and wisely manage the Nation's biological resources. Research emphasis is primarily on midcontinental plant and animal species and ecosystems of the United States. During the center's 40-year history, its scientists have earned an international reputation for leadership and expertise on the biology of waterfowl and grassland birds, wetland ecology and classification, mammalian behavior and ecology, grassland ecosystems, and application of statistics and geographic information systems. To address current science challenges, NPWRC scientists collaborate with researchers from other U.S. Geological Survey centers and disciplines (Biology, Geography, Geology, and Water) and with biologists and managers in the Department of the Interior (DOI), other Federal agencies, State agencies, universities, and nongovernmental organizations. Expanding upon its scientific expertise and leadership, the NPWRC is moving in new directions, including invasive plant species, restoration of native habitats, carbon sequestration and marketing, and ungulate management on DOI lands.

Fact Sheet↗

Late Holocene expansion of Ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) in the Central Rocky Mountains, USA

"Aim: Ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) experienced one of the most extensive and rapid post-glacial plant migrations in western North America. We used plant macrofossils from woodrat (Neotoma) middens to reconstruct its spread in the Central Rocky Mountains, identify other vegetation changes coinciding with P. ponderosa expansion at the same sites, and relate P. ponderosa migrational history to both its modern phylogeography and to a parallel expansion by Utah juniper (Juniperus osteosperma). Location: Central Rocky Mountains, Wyoming and Montana, and Black Hills, Wyoming and South Dakota, USA. Methods: Plant macrofossils were analyzed in 90 middens collected at 14 widely separated sites in the northern part of the range of P. ponderosa var. scopulorum. Middens with and without P. ponderosa were 14C dated to pinpoint time of appearance at each site. Sensitivity experiments using a bioclimatic model were used to evaluate potential climatic drivers of late Holocene expansion. Results: P. ponderosa colonized the Black Hills region by at least 3850 yr BP (all ages given in calendar years before present). It expanded into the eastern Bighorn Mountains of northern Wyoming by 2630 yr BP, quickly spreading north in the western Bighorns from 1400 to 1000 yr BP. Concurrent with the latter expansion, P. ponderosa spread c. ~350 km to the Little Belt and Big Belt Mountains in western Montana, establishing its northern limit and the modern introgression zone between var. scopulorum and var. ponderosa. Expansion in the Central Rockies of P. ponderosa involved two known haplotypes. Main conclusions: P. ponderosa expanded its range across large parts of northern Wyoming and central Montana during the late Holocene, probably in response to both northward and westward increases in summer temperature and rainfall. The underlying climatic driver may be the same as for the contemporaneous expansion of J. osteosperma, but will remain undetermined without focused development and integration of independent palaeoclimate records in the region."

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nev↗

Climatology, hydrology, and simulation of an emergency outlet, Devils Lake basin, North Dakota

Devils Lake is a natural lake in northeastern North Dakota that is the terminus of a nearly 4,000-square-mile subbasin in the Red River of the North Basin. The lake has not reached its natural spill elevation to the Sheyenne River (a tributary of the Red River of the North) in recorded history. However, geologic evidence indicates a spill occurred sometime within the last 1,800 years. From 1993 to 1999, Devils Lake rose 24.5 feet and, at the present (August 2000), is about 13 feet below the natural spill elevation. The recent lake-level rise has caused flood damages exceeding $300 million and triggered development of future flood-control options to prevent further infrastructure damage and reduce the risk of a potentially catastrophic uncontrolled spill. Construction of an emergency outlet from the west end of Devils Lake to the Sheyenne River is one flood-control option being considered. This report describes the climatologic and hydrologic causes of the recent lake level rise, provides information on the potential for continued lake-level rises during the next 15 years, and describes the potential effectiveness of an emergency outlet in reducing future lake levels and in reducing the risk of an uncontrolled spill. The potential effects of an outlet on downstream water quantity and quality in the upper Sheyenne River also are described.

South Dakota↗