Search USGS⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search USGS

Results for “Natural Resource Modelling”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources
USGS2013

Influences of Availability on Parameter Estimates from Site Occupancy Models with Application to Submersed Aquatic Vegetation

Site occupancy models are commonly used by ecologists to estimate the probabilities of species site occupancy and of species detection. This study addresses the influence on site occupancy and detection estimates of variation in species availability among surveys within sites. Such variation in availability may result from temporary emigration, nonavailability of the species for detection, and sampling sites spatially when species presence is not uniform within sites. We demonstrate, using Monte Carlo simulations and aquatic vegetation data, that variation in availability and heterogeneity in the probability of availability may yield biases in the expected values of the site occupancy and detection estimates that have traditionally been associated with low-detection probabilities and heterogeneity in those probabilities. These findings confirm that the effects of availability may be important for ecologists and managers, and that where such effects are expected, modification of sampling designs and/or analytical methods should be considered. Failure to limit the effects of availability may preclude reliable estimation of the probability of site occupancy.

Natural Resource Modeling↗
USGS2016

Salamander chytrid fungus ( Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans ) in the United States—Developing research, monitoring, and management strategies

The recently (2013) identified pathogenic chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium salamandrivoran s ( Bsal ), poses a severe threat to the distribution and abundance of salamanders within the United States and Europe. Development of a response strategy for the potential, and likely, invasion of Bsal into the United States is crucial to protect global salamander biodiversity. A formal working group, led by Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative (ARMI) scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Patuxent Wildlife Research Center, Fort Collins Science Center, and Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center, was held at the USGS Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis in Fort Collins, Colorado, United States from June 23 to June 25, 2015, to identify crucial Bsal research and monitoring needs that could inform conservation and management strategies for salamanders in the United States. Key findings of the workshop included the following: (1) the introduction of Bsal into the United States is highly probable, if not inevitable, thus requiring development of immediate short-term and long-term intervention strategies to prevent Bsal establishment and biodiversity decline; (2) management actions targeted towards pathogen containment may be ineffective in reducing the long-term spread of Bsal throughout the United States; and (3) early detection of Bsal through surveillance at key amphibian import locations, among high-risk wild populations, and through analysis of archived samples is necessary for developing management responses. Top research priorities during the preinvasion stage included the following: (1) deployment of qualified diagnostic methods for Bsal and establishment of standardized laboratory practices, (2) assessment of susceptibility for amphibian hosts (including anurans), and (3) development and evaluation of short- and long-term pathogen intervention and management strategies. Several outcomes were achieved during the workshop, including development of an organizational structure with working groups for a Bsal Task Force, creation of an initial influence diagram to aid in identifying effective management actions in the face of uncertainty, and production of a list of potential management actions and key research uncertainties. Additional products under development include a Bsal Strategic Action plan, an emergency response plan, a monitoring and surveillance program, a standardized diagnostic approach, decision models for natural resource agencies, and a reporting database for salamander mortalities. This workshop was the first international meeting to address the threat of Bsal to salamander populations in the United States, with more than 30 participants from U.S. conservation and resource management agencies (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, U.S. Forest Service, U.S. Department of Defense, U.S. National Park Service, and Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies) and academic research institutions in Australia, the Netherlands, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2025

Workshop: Nature-based solutions to ecological and economic problems caused by extreme precipitation events in the Upper Mississippi River Basin

Future climate conditions in the Upper Mississippi River Basin are projected to include many more extreme precipitation events. These intense periods of rain can lead to flooding of the Mississippi River itself, as well the small streams and rivers that feed it. This flooding presents a challenge for local communities, farmers, small businesses, river users, and the ecosystems and wildlife in the area. To reduce the damage done by these extreme rainfall events, ‘natural solutions’ are often helpful. This might include preserving forests and grasslands to absorb rainwater before it arrives at streams or restoring wetlands to slow and clean runoff water. For river and natural resource managers to adapt to future climate by using these natural solutions, however, they require accurate information about the projected increase in extreme rainfall events and the effectiveness and costs of a variety of solutions. To provide this information, researchers must understand the decisions that managers are making and the challenges they face. In this project, researchers will host a workshop to facilitate knowledge sharing between natural resource managers, climate modelers, and scientists studying natural solutions. Participants will discuss climate projections related to extreme precipitation events in the region, as well as the management implications and decision-making challenges associated with these events. These conversations will cultivate collaborative relationships between managers and researchers to address critical knowledge gaps and improve future management efforts in the Upper Mississippi River Basin.

Upper Mississippi River basin↗
USGS2017

Review of dynamic optimization methods in renewable natural resource management

In recent years, the applications of dynamic optimization procedures in natural resource management have proliferated. A systematic review of these applications is given in terms of a number of optimization methodologies and natural resource systems. Optimization methods are characterized by (1) the mathematical model used to describe a natural resource system, (2) a set of feasible strategies available to the resource manager, and (3) an objective functional by which to measure benefits and costs of strategies. A formal statement of the control problem is used to describe six approaches to optimal utilization of renewable natural resources: variational mathematics, specifically Pontryagin's Maximum Principle; dynamic programming; linear programming; nonlinear programming; simulation-optimization; and classical procedures. Solution methodologies are illustrated for each of these approaches, and examples from the ecological and natural resource literature are described for various subject matter areas. Applications are highlighted in terms of model structures, objective functionals, and system constraints. To the extent possible, optimal management patterns are characterized. Finally, the applicability of the methods to renewable natural resource systems are compared in terms of system complexity, system size, and precision of the optimal solutions. Recommendations are made concerning the appropriate methods for certain kinds of biological resource problems.

Natural Resource Modeling↗
USGS1998

Proactive responses to human impacts that balance development and Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) conservation: An integrative model

Incorporating human impacts into conservation plans is critical to protect natural resources. Using a model that examines how anthropogenic changes might be proactively influenced to promote conservation, we argue that a denser human population does not spell inevitable doom for Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar). Humans affect the Atlantic salmon ecosystem deleteriously through landscape alteration, exploitation, external inputs, and resource competition. An intact ecosystem provides positive feedback to society by providing food, ecosystem services, and improving the quality of life. As Atlantic salmon and associated ecosystem benefits are increasingly valued by society, policies, laws, and regulations that protect salmon populations and habitats are codified into a 'control system' or institutional infrastructure. Via research that helps maintain wild salmon populations and in informing the public about the benefits of a healthy Atlantic salmon ecosystem, scientists can influence public attitudes and facilitate the implementation of environmental policies that moderate harmful anthropogenic changes. Because exchange among scientists is of paramount importance in increasing our understanding of important interrelationships between humans and fish, we recommend the establishment of an international salmon organizational for research.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2017

Skagit River coho salmon life history model—Users’ guide

Natural resource management is conducted in the context of multiple anthropogenic stressors and is further challenged owing to changing climate. Experiments to determine the effects of climate change on complex ecological systems are nearly impossible. However, using a simulation model to synthesize current understanding of key ecological processes through the life cycle of a fish population can provide a platform for exploring potential effects of and management responses to changing conditions. Potential climate-change scenarios can be imposed, responses can be observed, and the effectiveness of potential actions can be evaluated. This approach is limited owing to future conditions likely deviating in range and timing from conditions used to create the model so that the model is expected to become obsolete. In the meantime, however, the modeling process explicitly states assumptions, clarifies information gaps, and provides a means to better understand which relationships are robust and which are vulnerable to changing climate by observing whether and why model output diverges from actual observations through time. The purpose of the model described herein is to provide such a decision-support tool regarding coho ( Oncorhynchus kisutch ) salmon for the Sauk-Suiattle Indian Tribe of Washington State. The Skagit coho salmon model is implemented in a system dynamics format and has three primary stocks—(1) predicted smolts, (2) realized smolts, and (3) escapement. “Predicted smolts” are the number of smolts expected based on the number of spawners in any year and the Ricker production curve. Pink salmon ( Oncorhynchus gorbuscha ) return to the Skagit River in odd years, and when they overlap with juvenile rearing coho salmon, coho smolt production is substantially higher than in non-pink years. Therefore, the model uses alternative Ricker equations to predict smolts depending on whether their juvenile year was a pink or non-pink year. The stock “realized smolts” is calculated based on the expected effect of streamflow conditions to alter the productivity predicted by the Ricker curve. Adverse conditions include scouring flow events that occur when redds are present; high-flow events during winter on juveniles, which can cause fish displacement and adverse water turbidity; and extremely low flows in summer. The stock “escapement” represents the fish remaining after accounting for ocean mortality and harvest. Ocean mortality has been linked with indices of ocean conditions, which are related to ocean biological productivity. Ocean survival also may have a density-dependent component such that lower survival is associated with higher numbers of smolts. The model allows the user to change certain model parameters and inputs, and choose among alternative predictors for certain modeled relations.

Washington↗
USGS2016

Evaluating alternative methods for biophysical and cultural ecosystem services hotspot mapping in natural resource planning

Context Data for biophysically modeled and Public Participatory GIS (PPGIS)-derived cultural ecosystem services have potential to identify natural resource management synergies and conflicts, but have rarely been combined. Ecosystem service hot/coldspots generated using different methods vary in their spatial extent and connectivity, with important implications. Objectives We map biophysically modeled and PPGIS-derived cultural services for six U.S. national forests using six hot/coldspot delineation methods. We evaluate the implications of hotspot methods for management within and outside of designated wilderness areas. Methods We used the ARIES and SolVES modeling tools to quantify four biophysically modeled and 11 largely cultural ecosystem services for six national forests in Colorado and Wyoming, USA. We mapped hot/coldspots using two quantile methods (top and bottom 10 and 33 % of values), two area-based methods (top and bottom 10 and 33 % of area), and two statistical methods (Getis-Ord Gi* at α = 0.05 and 0.10 significance level) and compare results within and outside wilderness areas. Results Delineation methods vary in their degree of conservatism for hot/coldspot extents and spatial clustering. Hotspots were more common in wilderness areas in national forests near the more densely populated Colorado Front Range, while coldspots were more common in wilderness areas in more urban-distant forests in northwest Wyoming. Conclusions Statistical hotspot methods of intermediate conservatism (i.e., Getis-Ord Gi*, α = 0.10 significance) may be most useful for ecosystem service hot/coldspot mapping to inform landscape scale planning. We also found spatially explicit evidence in support of past findings about public attitudes toward wilderness areas.

Landscape Ecology↗
USGS2012

What are plants doing and when? Using plant phenology to facilitate sustainable natural resources management

Climate change models for the northern Rocky Mountains predict changes in temperature and water availability that in turn will alter vegetation. Changes include timing of plant life-history events, or phenology, such as green-up, flowering and senescence, and shifts in species composition. Moreover, climate changes may favor different species, such as nonnative, annual grasses over native species. Changes in vegetation could make forage for ungulates, sage-grouse, and livestock available earlier in the growing season, but shifts in species composition and phenology may also result in earlier senescence (die-off or dormancy) and reduced overall forage production.

Wyoming↗
USGS2016

Visual Basic, Excel-based fish population modeling tool - The pallid sturgeon example

The model presented in this report is a spreadsheet-based model using Visual Basic for Applications within Microsoft Excel ( http://dx.doi.org/10.5066/F7057D0Z ) prepared in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. It uses the same model structure and, initially, parameters as used by Wildhaber and others (2015) for pallid sturgeon. The difference between the model structure used for this report and that used by Wildhaber and others (2015) is that variance is not partitioned. For the model of this report, all variance is applied at the iteration and time-step levels of the model. Wildhaber and others (2015) partition variance into parameter variance (uncertainty about the value of a parameter itself) applied at the iteration level and temporal variance (uncertainty caused by random environmental fluctuations with time) applied at the time-step level. They included implicit individual variance (uncertainty caused by differences between individuals) within the time-step level. The interface developed for the model of this report is designed to allow the user the flexibility to change population model structure and parameter values and uncertainty separately for every component of the model. This flexibility makes the modeling tool potentially applicable to any fish species; however, the flexibility inherent in this modeling tool makes it possible for the user to obtain spurious outputs. The value and reliability of the model outputs are only as good as the model inputs. Using this modeling tool with improper or inaccurate parameter values, or for species for which the structure of the model is inappropriate, could lead to untenable management decisions. By facilitating fish population modeling, this modeling tool allows the user to evaluate a range of management options and implications. The goal of this modeling tool is to be a user-friendly modeling tool for developing fish population models useful to natural resource managers to inform their decision-making processes; however, as with all population models, caution is needed, and a full understanding of the limitations of a model and the veracity of user-supplied parameters should always be considered when using such model output in the management of any species.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2016

U.S. Geological Survey science for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative—2015 annual report

This is the eighth annual report highlighting U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) science and decision-support activities conducted for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative (WLCI). The activities address specific management needs identified by WLCI partner agencies. In 2015, USGS scientists continued 24 WLCI projects in 5 categories: (1) acquiring and analyzing resource-condition data to form a foundation for understanding and monitoring landscape conditions and projecting changes; (2) using new technologies to improve the scope and accuracy of landscape-scale monitoring and assessments, and applying them to monitor indicators of ecosystem conditions and the effectiveness of on-the-ground habitat projects; (3) conducting research to elucidate the mechanisms that drive wildlife and habitat responses to changing land uses; (4) managing and making accessible the large number of databases, maps, and other products being developed; and (5) coordinating efforts among WLCI partners, helping them to use USGS-developed decision-support tools, and integrating WLCI outcomes with future habitat enhancement and research projects. Of the 24 projects, 21 were ongoing, including those that entered new phases or more in-depth lines of inquiry, 2 were new, and 1 was completed. A highlight of 2015 was the WLCI science conference sponsored by the USGS, Bureau of Land Management, and National Park Service in coordination with the Wyoming chapter of The Wildlife Society. Of 260 participants, 41 were USGS professionals representing 13 USGS science centers, field offices, and Cooperative Wildlife Research Units. Major themes of USGS presentations included using new technologies for developing more efficient research protocols for modeling and monitoring natural resources, researching effects of energy development and other land uses on wildlife species and habitats of concern, and modeling species distributions, population trends, habitat use, and effects of land-use changes. There was also a special session on the effectiveness of Wyoming’s Sage-Grouse Executive Order. Combined, USGS presentations provided WLCI partners with a wealth of information and conservation tools. The project completed in 2015 yielded an index of important agricultural lands in the WLCI region. The index improves upon existing measures of agricultural productivity and provides planners and managers with additional values to consider when making decisions about land use and conservation actions. The two new projects include an analysis of satellite imagery to quantify sagebrush productivity and mortality, and an evaluation of how groundwater and small streams interact in the upper Green River Basin. Initiated in response to concern among WLCI partners that large areas of sagebrush appear to have died recently, the sagebrush study objectives are to assess effects of these mortality events on overall sagebrush ecosystem productivity, evaluate the feasibility of using satellite imagery to detect patterns in sagebrush mortality over time, and identify factors driving these mortality events. The groundwater-streamflow interaction study is being conducted by hydrologists and fish ecologists to better understand how groundwater-streamflow interactions are affected by energy-resource development and how native fish communities are affected by these factors. Expected outcomes of both new projects will provide WLCI partners with additional information and decision-support tools. Highlights of ongoing science foundation activities included simulations of nine alternative build-out scenarios for oil and gas development and an associated online fact sheet that explains how the simulations were conducted, with an applied example for the Atlantic Rim. Also completed in 2015 was an update of the USGS online inventory of mineral resources data, and publication of a USGS uranium resource survey for the WLCI region. Combined, the outcomes of this work provide decisionmakers and managers with important baseline information for existing and (or) future planning and monitoring efforts. Terrestrial monitoring activities in 2015 emphasized the use of satellite data in combination with other technologies and field data to monitor, assess, and (or) forecast distribution patterns and (or) trends in sagebrush ecosystems, seasonal and migration stopover habitats used by mule deer and elk, and semi-arid aspen woodlands. Several professional papers detailing new monitoring models and results have been published. Combined, this and related work will help managers understand distribution patterns and trends among priority habitats, identify areas in need of restoration or conservation, and monitor the effectiveness of habitat-management actions. Aquatic monitoring activities entailed not only the new groundwater-streamflow interaction study already mentioned, but also continued monitoring with streamgages paired with nearby wells in the Green River Basin to assess groundwater effects on streamflow and surface water temperatures. A map that portrays groundwater levels and general direction of flow in the Green River Basin was published as well . Overall, outcomes of USGS hydrological research and monitoring will inform WLCI partners about water resources in the WLCI region and help to explain fish-community responses to energy-resource development. In 2015, USGS terrestrial wildlife ecologists continued to make crucial strides towards better understanding wildlife species responses to energy-resource development and other land-use changes. This body of research includes six taxa that require or heavily depend on sagebrush habitats: sage-grouse, pygmy rabbits, 3 songbird species, and mule deer. Native fish communities are also being evaluated. Approaches include modeling and mapping wildlife species distributions, abundances, and trends; using satellite and other technologies to track wildlife seasonal movements; conducting successive phases of research that build on the knowledge gained through prior phases to reveal the specific factors or thresholds that drive population- or individual-level responses to changes; and conducting population viability analyses. Additionally, wildlife habitat association models for pygmy rabbit and sage-grouse were combined with the oil and gas build-out scenarios to project species responses to alternative energy development scenarios. Outcomes of the wildlife response research are helping decisionmakers and managers identify specific factors that contribute to species population trends, the potential for spatial overlap between important wildlife habitats and proposed energy-resource development, locations of priority habitats for restoration and conservation, and more. Data and WLCI Web site management highlights of 2015 included not only ongoing software upgrades, but also an update of the datasets displayed in two of the online products developed for the WLCI effort: (1) a map of 15,532 oil and natural gas well pad scars and other features associated with oil and gas extraction, and (2) a map of oil and gas, oil shale, uranium, and solar energy production, both for southwestern Wyoming. In addition, a map viewer was developed for a previously published map of coal and wind production in relation to sage-grouse distribution and core management areas in southwestern Wyoming. Combined, these maps place valuable decision-support tools in the hands of WLCI partners. The USGS coordination efforts on behalf of the WLCI in 2015 included significant work on planning and executing the WLCI science conference. They also included ongoing efforts to support Local Project Development Teams and the WLCI Coordination Team (CT) with developing conservation priorities and strategies, identifying priority areas for future conservation actions, supporting the evaluation and ranking of conservation projects, and evaluating the ways in which proposed habitat projects relate to WLCI priorities. In 2015, the USGS also assisted the WLCI CT with updating the WLCI Conservation Action Plan.

Wyoming↗
USGS2020

Aligning climate models with stakeholder needs: Advances in communicating future rainfall uncertainties for south Florida decision makers

Changes in future precipitation are of great importance to climate data users in South Florida. A recent U.S. Geological Survey workshop, “Increasing Confidence in Precipitation Projections for Everglades Restoration,” highlighted a gap between standard climate model outputs and the climate information needs of some key Florida natural resource managers. These natural resource managers (hereafter broadly defined as “climate data users”) need more tailored output than is commonly provided by the climate modeling community. This study responds to these user needs by outlining and testing an adaptable methodology to select output from ensemble climate‐model simulations based on user‐defined precipitation drivers, using statistical methods common across scientific disciplines. This methodology is developed to provide a “decision matrix” that guides climate data users to specify the subset of models most important to their work based on each user's season (winter, summer, and annual) and the condition (dry, wet, neutral, and no threshold events) of interest. The decision matrix is intended to better communicate the subset of models best representing precipitation drivers. This information could increase users' confidence in climate models as a resource for natural resource planning and can be used to direct future dynamical downscaling efforts. This methodology is based in dynamical processes controlling precipitation via remote and local teleconnections. We also suggest that future climate studies in South Florida include high‐resolution climate model runs (i.e., ocean eddy resolving) in conjunction with dynamical downscaling to adequately capture precipitation variability.

South Florida↗
USGS2010

Visualizing NetCDF Files by Using the EverVIEW Data Viewer

Over the past few years, modelers in South Florida have started using Network Common Data Form (NetCDF) as the standard data container format for storing hydrologic and ecologic modeling inputs and outputs. With its origins in the meteorological discipline, NetCDF was created by the Unidata Program Center at the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, in conjunction with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and other organizations. NetCDF is a portable, scalable, self-describing, binary file format optimized for storing array-based scientific data. Despite attributes which make NetCDF desirable to the modeling community, many natural resource managers have few desktop software packages which can consume NetCDF and unlock the valuable data contained within. The U.S. Geological Survey and the Joint Ecosystem Modeling group, an ecological modeling community of practice, are working to address this need with the EverVIEW Data Viewer. Available for several operating systems, this desktop software currently supports graphical displays of NetCDF data as spatial overlays on a three-dimensional globe and views of grid-cell values in tabular form. An included Open Geospatial Consortium compliant, Web-mapping service client and charting interface allows the user to view Web-available spatial data as additional map overlays and provides simple charting visualizations of NetCDF grid values.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2008

Simulation of the Quantity, Variability, and Timing of Streamflow in the Dennys River Basin, Maine, by Use of a Precipitation-Runoff Watershed Model

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Maine Department of Marine Resources Bureau of Sea Run Fisheries and Habitat, began a study in 2004 to characterize the quantity, variability, and timing of streamflow in the Dennys River. The study included a synoptic summary of historical streamflow data at a long-term streamflow gage, collecting data from an additional four short-term streamflow gages, and the development and evaluation of a distributed-parameter watershed model for the Dennys River Basin. The watershed model used in this investigation was the USGS Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS). The Geographic Information System (GIS) Weasel was used to delineate the Dennys River Basin and subbasins and derive parameters for their physical geographic features. Calibration of the models used in this investigation involved a four-step procedure in which model output was evaluated against four calibration data sets using computed objective functions for solar radiation, potential evapotranspiration, annual and seasonal water budgets, and daily streamflows. The calibration procedure involved thousands of model runs and was carried out using the USGS software application Luca (Let us calibrate). Luca uses the Shuffled Complex Evolution (SCE) global search algorithm to calibrate the model parameters. The SCE method reliably produces satisfactory solutions for large, complex optimization problems. The primary calibration effort went into the Dennys main stem watershed model. Calibrated parameter values obtained for the Dennys main stem model were transferred to the Cathance Stream model, and a similar four-step SCE calibration procedure was performed; this effort was undertaken to determine the potential to transfer modeling information to a nearby basin in the same region. The calibrated Dennys main stem watershed model performed with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) statistic values for the calibration period and evaluation period of 0.79 and 0.76, respectively. The Cathance Stream model had an NSE value of 0.68. The Dennys River Basin models make use of limited streamflow-gaging station data and provide information to characterize subbasin hydrology. The calibrated PRMS watershed models of the Dennys River Basin provide simulated daily streamflow time series from October 1, 1985, through September 30, 2006, for nearly any location within the basin. These models enable natural-resources managers to characterize the timing and quantity of water moving through the basin to support many endeavors including geochemical calculations, water-use assessment, Atlantic salmon population dynamics and migration modeling, habitat modeling and assessment, and other resource-management scenario evaluations. Characterizing streamflow contributions from subbasins in the basin and the relative amounts of surface- and ground-water contributions to streamflow throughout the basin will lead to a better understanding of water quantity and quality in the basin. Improved water-resources information will support Atlantic salmon protection efforts.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2018

Review and development of ASABE Engineering Practice 621: “Guidelines for calibrating, validating, and evaluating hydrologic and water quality models”

In 2010, the Natural Resources and Environmental Systems Hydrology Committee (NRES-21) of ASABE initiated a long-term process to develop guidelines to improve modeling practice through better understanding of the calibration, validation, and evaluation process across applications and more effective interpretation and communication of model performance. This effort generated a compilation of 23 articles with model-specific descriptions and guidance (2012), a position paper outlining guidance for evaluating, interpreting, and communicating performance of hydrologic and water quality models considering intended use (2014), and a compilation of ten articles addressing key topics related to model calibration and validation (2015). In 2016, the first draft of ASABE Engineering Practice 621 (EP621), “Guidelines for Calibrating, Validating, and Evaluating Hydrologic and Water Quality (H/WQ) Models,” was developed, subsequently revised, and ultimately approved by the ASABE Standards Committee in 2017. EP621 provides guidelines, not prescriptive requirements, and as such recommends “good” modeling practices to enhance calibration, validation, evaluation, and communication of H/WQ models through establishment of consistent terminology; model selection; compilation and processing of input data and calibration, validation, and evaluation data; determination of model performance measures; model parameterization and calibration; re-examination of input and calibration data and/or consideration of model refinement; re-evaluation of model performance; and documentation of modeling process and results. EP621 can be obtained from the ASABE Technical Library at https://elibrary.asabe.org/abstract.asp?aid=47804. The objectives of this technical note are to review the process and rationale used to develop EP621 and to briefly summarize its major components.

Transactions of the ASABE↗
USGS2006

Modeling brook trout presence and absence from landscape variables using four different analytical methods

As a part of the Great Lakes Regional Aquatic Gap Analysis Project, we evaluated methodologies for modeling associations between fish species and habitat characteristics at a landscape scale. To do this, we created brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis presence and absence models based on four different techniques: multiple linear regression, logistic regression, neural networks, and classification trees. The models were tested in two ways: by application to an independent validation database and cross-validation using the training data, and by visual comparison of statewide distribution maps with historically recorded occurrences from the Michigan Fish Atlas. Although differences in the accuracy of our models were slight, the logistic regression model predicted with the least error, followed by multiple regression, then classification trees, then the neural networks. These models will provide natural resource managers a way to identify habitats requiring protection for the conservation of fish species.

Book chapter↗
USGS2022

Natural resource system size can be used for managing recreational use

Outdoor recreation provides societal benefits that are often measured by the amount of use natural resource systems receive. Still, the amount of resource use natural resource systems receive is often unknown or unstudied. Monitoring and quantifying resource use is often logistically difficult and costly but is paramount to optimize societal benefits. Identifying a simple and readily available metric that can indicate the quantity of recreational use of natural resource systems would benefit natural resource management. Using recreational angler participation data during an 11-year study period from 73 public waterbodies in Nebraska, USA, we developed a resource size-use model that demonstrates the ability of natural resource system size to indicate the quantity of recreational use they receive. We demonstrate how resource size-use models can estimate use for unsampled systems, produce broad-scale estimations of use, guide the allocation of resources, and predict how changes in resource system size may affect use. Resource size-use models provide opportunities to manage recreational use, which has been previously elusive for social-ecological systems.

Nebraska↗
USGS2007

Land Cover Applications, Landscape Dynamics, and Global Change

The Land Cover Applications, Landscape Dynamics, and Global Change project at U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Center for Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) seeks to integrate remote sensing and simulation models to better understand and seek solutions to national and global issues. Modeling processes related to population impacts, natural resource management, climate change, invasive species, land use changes, energy development, and climate mitigation all pose significant scientific opportunities. The project activities use remotely sensed data to support spatial monitoring, provide sensitivity analyses across landscapes and large regions, and make the data and results available on the Internet with data access and distribution, decision support systems, and on-line modeling. Applications support sustainable natural resource use, carbon cycle science, biodiversity conservation, climate change mitigation, and robust simulation modeling approaches that evaluate ecosystem and landscape dynamics.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2005

Wildlife as valuable natural resources vs. intolerable pests: A suburban wildlife management model

Management of wildlife in suburban environments involves a complex set of interactions between both human and wildlife populations. Managers need additional tools, such as models, that can help them assess the status of wildlife populations, devise and apply management programs, and convey this information to other professionals and the public. We present a model that conceptualizes how some wildlife populations can fluctuate between extremely low (rare, threatened, or endangered status) and extremely high (overabundant) numbers over time. Changes in wildlife abundance can induce changes in human perceptions, which continually redefine species as a valuable resource to be protected versus a pest to be controlled. Management programs thatincorporate a number of approaches and promote more stable populations of wildlife avoid the problems of the resource versus pest transformation, are less costly to society, and encourage more positive and less negative interactions between humans and wildlife. We presenta case example of the beaver Castor canadensis in Massachusetts to illustrate how this model functions and can be applied. ?? 2005 Springer Science + Business Media, Inc.

Urban Ecosystems↗