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At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources
USGS2025

Invited perspectives: Integrating hydrologic information into the next generation of landslide early warning systems

Although rainfall-triggered landslides are initiated by subsurface hydro-mechanical processes related to the loading, weakening, and eventual failure of slope materials, most landslide early warning systems (LEWS) have relied solely on rainfall event information. In previous decades, several studies demonstrated the value of integrating proxies for subsurface hydrologic information to improve rainfall-based forecasting of shallow landslides. More recently, broader access to commercial sensors and telemetry for real-time data transmission has invigorated new research into hydrometeorological thresholds for LEWS. Given the increasing number of studies across the globe using hydrologic monitoring, mathematical modeling, or both in combination, it is now possible to make some insights into the advantages versus limitations of this approach. The extensive progress demonstrates the value of in situ hydrologic information for reducing both failed and false alarms, through the ability to characterize infiltration during, as well as the drainage and drying processes between major storm events. There are also some areas for caution surrounding the long-term sustainability of subsurface monitoring in landslide-prone terrain, as well as unresolved questions in hillslope hydrologic modeling, which relies heavily on the assumptions of diffuse flow and vertical infiltration but often ignores preferential flow and lateral drainage. Here, we share a collective perspective based on our previous collaborative work across Europe, North America, Africa, and Asia to discuss these challenges and provide some guidelines for integrating knowledge of hydrology and climate into the next generation of LEWS. We propose that the greatest opportunity for improvement is through a measure-and-model approach to develop an understanding of landslide hydro-climatology that accounts for local controls on subsurface storage dynamics. Additionally, new efforts focused on the subsurface hydrology are complementary to existing rainfall-based methods, so leveraging these with near-term precipitation forecasts is a priority for increasing lead times.

Alaska↗
USGS2025

Constraining landslide frequency across the United States to inform county-level risk reduction

Informative landslide hazard estimates are needed to support landslide mitigation strategies to reduce landslide risk across the United States. Whereas existing national-scale landslide susceptibility products assess where landslides are likely to occur, they do not address how often , which is a critical element of landslide hazard and risk assessments. In particular, the U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency's National Risk Index (NRI) requires landslide frequency estimates to inform expected annual loss estimates. We present county-level landslide frequency (landslides per area per year) estimates for the 50 US states. We applied Bayesian negative binomial regression to estimate both the expected (average) reported landslide frequency and full distribution of annual landslide counts for each county. We compared a suite of models that used combinations of landslide-susceptible area, probability of potentially triggering earthquakes, frequency of potentially triggering precipitation, and ecological region as predictors. We trained our models with landslide inventory data from counties with the most comprehensive records available nationwide and used zero-inflated negative binomial distributions as an incompleteness model to correct for temporal reporting gaps. We selected a preferred frequency model to inform the NRI based on information criteria and physically plausible parameter estimates. The model showed that average annual reported landslide frequencies vary by 5 orders of magnitude across US counties, ranging from 0.002 (0.00015–0.05) landslides 1000 km −2 yr −1 in Kusilvak Census Area, Alaska, to 29 (19–46) landslides 1000 km −2 yr −1 in Lake County, California, reflecting the country's strong variations in landslide susceptibility, earthquake probability, and other factors for which ecological region serves as a proxy. Counties with estimated frequencies in the top 20 % of all counties are predominately along the West Coast of the continental United States, in mountainous regions of the Pacific Northwest and Intermountain West, in locally steep or earthquake-prone regions of the Midwest and Southeast, along the Appalachians, in southern and southeastern Alaska, and on some Hawaiian islands. By examining the number of landslides predicted in 99th percentile years for each county, we identified that 26 % of US counties likely have potential for widespread landsliding with more than 10 landslides 1000 km −2 yr −1 , even when such large events have not been reported in the training data for that county. Overall, our results better represent the range of possible landslide frequencies and spatial variations than previous national-scale estimates reported in the NRI, and our approach can inform other risk-reduction and loss-mitigation efforts across the United States and globally.

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences↗
USGS2026

Changing drivers of regional large magnitude avalanche frequency throughout Colorado, USA

Large magnitude snow avalanches (destructive size ≥ D3) impact settlements, transportation corridors, and public safety worldwide. In Colorado, United States, avalanches have killed more people than any other natural hazard since 1950. In March 2019, a large magnitude avalanche cycle occurred throughout the entire mountainous portion of Colorado resulting in more than 1000 reported avalanches during a two-week period. Nearly 200 of these avalanches were size D4 or larger with at least three D5 avalanches. However, placing this 2019 large magnitude avalanche cycle in historic context requires data prior to the instrumental record. Here, we paired tree disturbance data from dendrochronology (1698 to 2020) with meteorological data from the modeled and instrumental record (1901 to 2020) to understand the frequency and climate drivers of large magnitude snow avalanche cycles. The extensive number of downed trees from the 2019 avalanche cycle allowed us to collect 1,188 cross-sections and cores from 1023 individual trees within 24 avalanche paths across the state. From these samples we identified 4135 avalanche-related growth disturbances. We employed a strategic nested sampling design to spatially aggregate avalanche frequency from individual avalanche paths, to counties, to three major sub-regions (i.e., north, central, and south), and across the entire region (i.e., state of Colorado). Over a period spanning more than three centuries (1698 to 2020), we identified 76 avalanche years within 24 individual avalanche paths. Large magnitude avalanche event frequency varied across paths and sub-regions with several notable region-wide avalanche cycles. Both tree-ring and historical written records highlighted 1899 as a year with widespread and large magnitude avalanche activity similar to the March 2019 avalanche cycle. Since the early-20th century (1900 to 2020) regional avalanche probability declined significantly in parallel with decreasing snowpack throughout Colorado. Similarly, dominant avalanche regimes shifted from large magnitude regional cycles driven by above average snowfall years over most of the record, to regional avalanche cycles occurring more commonly in average to low snow years since 1988. In recent decades, a lack of December precipitation and above average March precipitation characterized years with regional large magnitude avalanche activity. Even with declining snow water equivalent, truly extreme regional large magnitude avalanche cycles remain possible – as demonstrated by the 2019 cycle. This underscores that rare but high-impact events are not eliminated by long-term trends. Understanding the changing snow and weather drivers and subsequent behavior of large magnitude avalanche cycles across multiple spatial scales may improve avalanche forecasting and the products and mitigations strategies developed by structural engineers to mitigate avalanche danger. This can decrease the avalanche risk to the public and improve infrastructure design in avalanche terrain.

Colorado↗
USGS2026

The damability function: A probabilistic approach to regional landslide dam susceptibility analysis applied to the Oregon Coast Range, USA

Landslides can dam rivers and require rapid response to mitigate catastrophic outburst floods. Here, we present a workflow to map landslide dam formation susceptibility at a regional scale. We define a probabilistic function that combines river valley width and landslide volume to efficiently determine the likelihood of a landslide dam or “damability”. We combine damability values with landslide susceptibility to estimate landslide dam susceptibility. The valley width measurements are automated using a new elevation threshold-based algorithm. Landslide volume is represented as a statistical distribution from mapped landslides. We validate and apply our approach to the Oregon Coast Range, USA and find that 36 % of river stretches exceed a dam potential threshold; these are in river headwaters and steeper terrain, which in this case correlate with more resistant lithologies. We also estimate volumes of the potential dammed lakes and find that most rivers with high dam susceptibility are less likely to impound large lakes because they have low drainage areas. However, widespread susceptibility, and the potential impacts from exceptionally large landslides, suggest that this hazard should be considered in the Pacific Northwest. The damability function workflow can ingest new data and be applied more broadly to assess future landslide dam hazards.

Oregon↗
USGS2026

An improved empirical model for predicting postfire debris-flow volume in the western United States

Reliable estimates of debris-flow volume can be used to help predict the magnitude of debris-flow hazards following wildfire in the western United States. In this study, we compiled and used a database of 227 postfire debris-flow volumes that were collected across the western United States to develop a multiple linear regression model for predicting postfire debris-flow volume. We explored 36 predictor variables related to rainfall, terrain, and fire characteristics, and selected the model with the combination of variables that yielded the most accurate predictions of debris-flow volume. We evaluated model performance against the entire volume database, as well as against four subsets of volume data from southern California, the Intermountain West, the Southwest, and regions with limited volume data, such as northern California and Washington. We also compared model performance against 3 existing postfire debris-flow volume models that were developed for use in southern California, the Intermountain West, and the Southwest. We demonstrate that the new volume model performs as well as the regional models in the regions for which they were developed and outperforms existing models when applied to volumes from data-limited regions in the western United States. These results indicate that the debris-flow volume model introduced in this study can be used to improve postfire hazard assessments across the western United States, especially outside of southern California.

Arizona, California, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, W↗
USGS2026

Hazard potential of compound flooding from rainfall, storm surge, and groundwater in coastal New York and Connecticut

Compound flood events, the co-occurrence of multiple flood drivers, can result in flood hazard potential exceeding that of any single driver alone. To evaluate compound flooding in a semi-urbanized coastal area, historical records dating back to 1970 are used to study the co-occurrences of high precipitation, storm surge, and shallow groundwater conditions along the coastlines of New York and Connecticut. Joint return periods for coincident precipitation-surge events were computed using statistical dependence models and compared to the assumption of independence as a ratio, referred to here as a return period adjustment. Results indicate distinct seasonality where compound events in the area disproportionately occur in the cold season between October and April. Return period adjustments range from a factor of 1 to almost 9, demonstrating the range in precipitation-storm surge dependence across the study area. Across all 24 station triad locations, groundwater levels were elevated during times of precipitation- surge co-occurrence, reflecting the tendency for coastal storms and shallow groundwater conditions to co-occur seasonally. The result is a pseudo-trivariate compound flood hazard score and corresponding hazard map that integrates dependence between daily precipitation-surge events and overall monthly groundwater levels (as a precondition) into a relative compound hazard score. The location with the highest compound flood hazard score is on the south shore of Long Island, as well as locations across coastal Connecticut where groundwater levels compound the co-occurrence of heavy precipitation and storm surge.

Connecticut, New York↗
USGS2003

Rockfall hazard and risk assessment in the Yosemite Valley, California, USA

Rock slides and rock falls are the most frequent types of slope movements in Yosemite National Park, California. In historical time (1857-2002) 392 rock falls and rock slides have been documented in the valley, and some of them have been mapped in detail. We present the results of an attempt to assess rock fall hazards in the Yosemite Valley. Spatial and temporal aspects of rock falls hazard are considered. A detailed inventory of slope movements covering the 145-year period from 1857 to 2002 is used to determine the frequency-volume statistics of rock falls and to estimate the annual frequency of rock falls, providing the temporal component of rock fall hazard. The extent of the areas potentially subject to rock fall hazards in the Yosemite Valley were obtained using STONE, a physically-based rock fall simulation computer program. The software computes 3-dimensional rock fall trajectories starting from a digital elevation model (DEM), the location of rock fall release points, and maps of the dynamic rolling friction coefficient and of the coefficients of normal and tangential energy restitution. For each DEM cell the software calculates the number of rock falls passing through the cell, the maximum rock fall velocity and the maximum flying height. For the Yosemite Valley, a DEM with a ground resolution of 10 ?? 10 m was prepared using topographic contour lines from the U.S. Geological Survey 1:24 000-scale maps. Rock fall release points were identified as DEM cells having a slope steeper than 60??, an assumption based on the location of historical rock falls. Maps of the normal and tangential energy restitution coefficients and of the rolling friction coefficient were produced from a surficial geologic map. The availability of historical rock falls mapped in detail allowed us to check the computer program performance and to calibrate the model parameters. Visual and statistical comparison of the model results with the mapped rock falls confirmed the accuracy of the model. The model results are compared with a previous map of rockfall talus and with a geomorphic assessment of rock fall hazard based on potential energy referred to as a shadow angle approach, recently completed for the Yosemite Valley. The model results are then used to identify the roads and trails more subject to rock fall hazard. Of the 166.5 km of roads and trails in the Yosemite Valley 31.2% were found to be potentially subject to rock fall hazard, of which 14% are subject to very high hazard. ?? European Geosciences Union 2003.

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences↗
USGS2005

Undersea landslides: Extent and significance in the Pacific Ocean, an update

Submarine landslides are known to occur disproportionately in a limited number of environments including fjords, deltas, canyons, volcanic islands and the open continental slope. An evaluation of the progress that has been made in understanding Pacific Ocean submarine landslides over the last 15 years shows that mapping technologies have improved greatly, allowing a better interpretation of landslide features. Some features previously identified as landslides are being reinterpreted by some as sediment waves. Previously underappreciated environments for landslides such as deep-sea trenches are being recognized and lava deltas are being found to be landslide prone. Landslides are also being recognized much more commonly as a potential source of tsunamis. Landslides that have produced tsunamis in the past are being mapped and in some cases modeled. The flow characteristics of turbidity currents produced by landslides in canyon heads have recently been monitored and the source of these failures has been identified using repeated multibeam mapping. Finally, some landslide deposits are being dated as part of assessing risk to coastal cities from landslide-tsunamis. European Geosciences Union ?? 2005 Author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License.

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences↗
USGS2005

A magnetotelluric study of the sensitivity of an area to seismoelectric signals

During recent years, efforts at better understanding the physical properties of precursory ultra-low frequency pre-seismic electric signals (SES) have been intensified. Experiments show that SES cannot be observed at all points of the Earth's surface but only at certain so-called sensitive sites. Moreover, a sensitive site is capable of collecting SES from only a restricted number of seismic areas (selectivity effect). Tberefore the installation of a permanent station appropriate for SES collection should necessarily be preceded by a pilot study over a broad area and for a long duration. In short, a number of temporary stations are installed and, after the occurrence of several significant earthquakes (EQs) from a given seismic area, the most appropriate (if any) of these temporary stations, in the sense that they happen to collect SES, can be selected as permanent. Such a long experiment constitutes a serious disadvantage in identifying a site as SES sensitive. However, the SES sensitivity of a site should be related to the geoelectric structure of the area that hosts the site as well as the regional geoelectric structure between the station and the seismic focal area. Thus, knowledge of the local and regional geoelectric structure can dramatically reduce the time involved in identifying SES sites. hi this paper the magnetotelluric method is used to investigate the conductivity structure of an area where a permanent SES station is in operation. Although general conclusions cannot be drawn, the area surrounding an SES site near Ioannina, Greece is characterized by: (1) major faults in the vicinity; (2) highly resistive structure flanked by abrupt conductivity contrasts associated with large-scale geologic contacts, and (3) local inhomogeneities in conductivity structure. The above results are consistent with the fact that electric field amplitudes from remotely-generated signals should be appreciably stronger at such sites when compared to neighboring sites. European Geosciences Union ?? 2005 Author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License.

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences↗
USGS2005

Calibration of numerical models for small debris flows in Yosemite Valley, California, USA

This study compares documented debris flow runout distances with numerical simulations in the Yosemite Valley of California, USA, where about 15% of historical events of slope instability can be classified as debris flows and debris slides (Wieczorek and Snyder, 2004). To model debris flows in the Yosemite Valley, we selected six streams with evidence of historical debris flows; three of the debris flow deposits have single channels, and the other three split their pattern in the fan area into two or more channels. From field observations all of the debris flows involved coarse material, with only very small clay content. We applied the one dimensional DAN (Dynamic ANalysis) model (Hungr, 1995) and the two-dimensional FLO2D model (O'Brien et al., 1993) to predict and compare the runout distance and the velocity of the debris flows observed in the study area. As a first step, we calibrated the parameters for the two softwares through the back analysis of three debris- flows channels using a trial-and-error procedure starting with values suggested in the literature. In the second step we applied the selected values to the other channels, in order to evaluate their predictive capabilities. After parameter calibration using three debris flows we obtained results similar to field observations We also obtained a good agreement between the two models for velocities. Both models are strongly influenced by topography: we used the 30 m cell size DTM available for the study area, that is probably not accurate enough for a highly detailed analysis, but it can be sufficient for a first screening. European Geosciences Union ?? 2005 Author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License.

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences↗
USGS2006

Drainage effects on the transient, near-surface hydrologic response of a steep hillslope to rainfall: Implications for slope stability, Edmonds, Washington, USA

Shallow landslides on steep (>25??) hillsides along Puget Sound have resulted in occasional loss of life and costly damage to property during intense or prolonged rainfall. As part of a larger project to assess landslide hazards in the Seattle area, the U.S. Geological Survey instrumented two coastal bluff sites in 2001 to observe the subsurface hydrologic response to rainfall. The instrumentation at one of these sites, near Edmonds, Washington, consists of two rain gauges, two water-content probes that measure volumetric water content at eight depths between 0.2 and 2.0 m, and two tensiometer nests that measure soil-water suction at six depths ranging from 0.2 to 1.5m. Measurements from these instruments are used to test one- and two-dimensional numerical models of infiltration and groundwater flow. Capillary-rise tests, performed in the laboratory on soil sample from the Edmonds site, are used to define the soil hydraulic properties for the wetting process. The field observations of water content and suction show an apparent effect of porosity variation with depth on the hydraulic response to rainfall. Using a range of physical properties consistent with our laboratory and field measurements, we perform sensitivity analyses to investigate the effects of variation in physical and hydraulic properties of the soil on rainfall infiltration, pore-pressure response, and, hence, slope stability. For a two-layer-system in which the hydraulic conductivity of the upper layer is at least 10 times greater than the conductivity of the lower layer, and the infiltration rate is greater than the conductivity of the lower layer, a perched water table forms above the layer boundary potentially destabilizing the upper layer of soil. Two-dimensional modeling results indicate that the addition of a simple trench drain to the same two-layer slope has differing effects on the hydraulic response depending on the initial pressure head conditions. For slope-parallel flow conditions, pressure head is significantly reduced near the drain; however, for transient, vertical infiltration in a partially saturated soil, conditions consistent with those observed during monitoring at the Edmonds site, the drain decreases the thickness of a perched water table by a small amount.

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences↗
USGS2006

Submarine landslides in the Santa Barbara Channel as potential tsunami sources

Recent investigations using the Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institutes (MBARI) Remotely Operated Vehicles (ROVs) "Ventana" and "Tiburon" and interpretation of MBARI's EM 300 30 kHz multibeam bathymetric data show that the northern flank of the Santa Barbara Basin has experienced massive slope failures. Of particular concern is the large (130 km2) Goleta landslide complex located off Coal Oil Point near the town of Goleta, that measures 14.6-km long extending from a depth of 90 m to nearly 574 m deep and is 10.5 km wide. We estimate that approximately 1.75 km3 has been displaced by this slide during the Holocene. This feature is a complex compound submarine landslide that contains both surfical slump blocks and mud flows in three distinct segments. Each segment is composed of a distinct head scarp, down-dropped head block and a slide debris lobe. The debris lobes exhibit hummocky topography in the central areas that appear to result from compression during down slope movement. The toes of the western and eastern lobes are well defined in the multibeam image, whereas the toe of the central lobe is less distinct. Continuous seismic reflection profiles show that many buried slide debris lobes exist and comparison of the deformed reflectors with ODP Drill Site 149, Hole 893 suggest that at least 200 000 years of failure have occurred in the area (Fisher et al., 2005a). Based on our interpretation of the multibeam bathymetry and seismic reflection profiles we modeled the potential tsunami that may have been produced from one of the three surfical lobes of the Goleta slide. This model shows that a 10 m high wave could have run ashore along the cliffs of the Goleta shoreline. Several other smaller (2 km2 and 4 km2) slides are located on the northern flank of the Santa Barbara Basin, both to the west and east of Goleta slide and on the Concepcion fan along the western flank of the basin. One slide, named the Gaviota slide, is 3.8 km2, 2.6 km long and 1.7 km wide. A distinct narrow scar extends from near the eastern head wall of this slide for over 2 km eastward toward the Goleta slide and may represent either an incipient failure or a remnant of a previous failure. Push cores collected within the main head scar of this slide consisted of hydrogen sulfide bearing mud, possibly suggesting active fluid seepage and a vibra-core penetrated ???50 cm of recent sediment overlying colluvium or landslide debris confirming the age of ???300 years as proposed by Lee et al. (2004). However, no seeps or indications of recent movement were observed during our ROV investigation within this narrow head scar indicating that seafloor in the scar is draped with mud. ?? 2006 Author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License.

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences↗
USGS2006

Numerical simulation of tsunami generation by cold volcanic mass flows at Augustine Volcano, Alaska

Many of the world's active volcanoes are situated on or near coastlines. During eruptions, diverse geophysical mass flows, including pyroclastic flows, debris avalanches, and lahars, can deliver large volumes of unconsolidated debris to the ocean in a short period of time and thereby generate tsunamis. Deposits of both hot and cold volcanic mass flows produced by eruptions of Aleutian arc volcanoes are exposed at many locations along the coastlines of the Bering Sea, North Pacific Ocean, and Cook Inlet, indicating that the flows entered the sea and in some cases may have initiated tsunamis. We evaluate the process of tsunami generation by cold granular subaerial volcanic mass flows using examples from Augustine Volcano in southern Cook Inlet. Augustine Volcano is the most historically active volcano in the Cook Inlet region, and future eruptions, should they lead to debris-avalanche formation and tsunami generation, could be hazardous to some coastal areas. Geological investigations at Augustine Volcano suggest that as many as 12-14 debris avalanches have reached the sea in the last 2000 years, and a debris avalanche emplaced during an A.D. 1883 eruption may have initiated a tsunami that was observed about 80 km east of the volcano at the village of English Bay (Nanwalek) on the coast of the southern Kenai Peninsula. Numerical simulation of mass-flow motion, tsunami generation, propagation, and inundation for Augustine Volcano indicate only modest wave generation by volcanic mass flows and localized wave effects. However, for east-directed mass flows entering Cook Inlet, tsunamis are capable of reaching the more populated coastlines of the southwestern Kenai Peninsula, where maximum water amplitudes of several meters are possible.

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences↗
USGS2007

Influence of tectonic folding on rockfall susceptibility, American Fork Canyon, Utah, USA

We examine rockfall susceptibility of folded strata in the Sevier fold-thrust belt exposed in American Fork Canyon in north-central Utah. Large-scale geologic mapping, talus production data, rock-mass-quality measurements, and historical rockfall data indicate that rockfall susceptibility is correlated with limb dip and curvature of the folded, cliff-forming Mississippian limestones. On fold limbs, rockfall susceptibility increases as dip increases. This relation is controlled by several factors, including an increase in adverse dip conditions and apertures of discontinuities, and shearing by flexural slip during folding that has reduced the friction angles of discontinuities by smoothing surface asperities. Susceptibility is greater in fold hinge zones than on adjacent limbs primarily because there are greater numbers of discontinuities in hinge zones. We speculate that susceptibility increases in hinge zones as fold curvature becomes tighter.

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences↗
USGS2008

Investigation and hazard assessment of the 2003 and 2007 Staircase Falls rock falls, Yosemite National Park, California, USA

Since 1857 more than 600 rock falls, rock slides, debris slides, and debris flows have been documented in Yosemite National Park, with rock falls in Yosemite Valley representing the majority of the events. On 26 December 2003, a rock fall originating from west of Glacier Point sent approximately 200 m 3 of rock debris down a series of joint-controlled ledges to the floor of Yosemite Valley. The debris impacted talus near the base of Staircase Falls, producing fragments of flying rock that struck occupied cabins in Curry Village. Several years later on 9 June 2007, and again on 26 July 2007, smaller rock falls originated from the same source area. The 26 December 2003 event coincided with a severe winter storm and was likely triggered by precipitation and/or frost wedging, but the 9 June and 26 July 2007 events lack recognizable triggering mechanisms. We investigated the geologic and hydrologic factors contributing to the Staircase Falls rock falls, including bedrock lithology, weathering, joint spacing and orientations, and hydrologic processes affecting slope stability. We improved upon previous geomorphic assessment of rock-fall hazards, based on a shadow angle approach, by using STONE, a three-dimensional rock-fall simulation computer program. STONE produced simulated rock-fall runout patterns similar to the mapped extent of the 2003 and 2007 events, allowing us to simulate potential future rock falls from the Staircase Falls detachment area. Observations of recent rock falls, mapping of rock debris, and simulations of rock fall runouts beneath the Staircase Falls detachment area suggest that rock-fall hazard zones extend farther downslope than the extent previously defined by mapped surface talus deposits.

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences↗
USGS2008

Categorizing natural disaster damage assessment using satellite-based geospatial techniques

Remote sensing of a natural disaster's damage offers an exciting backup and/or alternative to traditional means of on-site damage assessment. Although necessary for complete assessment of damage areas, ground-based damage surveys conducted in the aftermath of natural hazard passage can sometimes be potentially complicated due to on-site difficulties (e.g., interaction with various authorities and emergency services) and hazards (e.g., downed power lines, gas lines, etc.), the need for rapid mobilization (particularly for remote locations), and the increasing cost of rapid physical transportation of manpower and equipment. Satellite image analysis, because of its global ubiquity, its ability for repeated independent analysis, and, as we demonstrate here, its ability to verify on-site damage assessment provides an interesting new perspective and investigative aide to researchers. Using one of the strongest tornado events in US history, the 3 May 1999 Oklahoma City Tornado, as a case example, we digitized the tornado damage path and co-registered the damage path using pre- and post-Landsat Thematic Mapper image data to perform a damage assessment. We employed several geospatial approaches, specifically the Getis index, Geary's C , and two lacunarity approaches to categorize damage characteristics according to the original Fujita tornado damage scale (F-scale). Our results indicate strong relationships between spatial indices computed within a local window and tornado F-scale damage categories identified through the ground survey. Consequently, linear regression models, even incorporating just a single band, appear effective in identifying F-scale damage categories using satellite imagery. This study demonstrates that satellite-based geospatial techniques can effectively add spatial perspectives to natural disaster damages, and in particular for this case study, tornado damages.

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences↗
USGS2006

The influence of hazard models on GIS-based regional risk assessments and mitigation policies

Geographic information systems (GIS) are important tools for understanding and communicating the spatial distribution of risks associated with natural hazards in regional economies. We present a GIS-based decision support system (DSS) for assessing community vulnerability to natural hazards and evaluating potential mitigation policy outcomes. The Land Use Portfolio Modeler (LUPM) integrates earth science and socioeconomic information to predict the economic impacts of loss-reduction strategies. However, the potential use of such systems in decision making may be limited when multiple but conflicting interpretations of the hazard are available. To explore this problem, we conduct a policy comparison using the LUPM to test the sensitivity of three available assessments of earthquake-induced lateral-spread ground failure susceptibility in a coastal California community. We find that the uncertainty regarding the interpretation of the science inputs can influence the development and implementation of natural hazard management policies. Copyright ?? 2006 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.

International Journal of Risk Assessment and Manag↗
USGS2011

Geology for a changing world 2010-2020-Implementing the U.S. Geological Survey science strategy

This report describes a science strategy for the geologic activities of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) for the years 2010-2020. It presents six goals with accompanying strategic actions and products that implement the science directions of USGS Circular 1309, 'Facing Tomorrow's Challenges-U.S. Geological Survey Science in the Decade 2007-2017.' These six goals focus on providing the geologic underpinning needed to wisely use our natural resources, understand and mitigate hazards and environmental change, and understand the relationship between humans and the environment. The goals emphasize the critical role of the USGS in providing long-term research, monitoring, and assessments for the Nation and the world. Further, they describe measures that must be undertaken to ensure geologic expertise and knowledge for the future. The natural science issues facing today's world are complex and cut across many scientific disciplines. The Earth is a system in which atmosphere, oceans, land, and life are all connected. Rocks and soils contain the answers to important questions about the origin of energy and mineral resources, the evolution of life, climate change, natural hazards, ecosystem structures and functions, and the movements of nutrients and toxicants. The science of geology has the power to help us understand the processes that link the physical and biological world so that we can model and forecast changes in the system. Ensuring the success of this strategy will require integration of geological knowledge with the other natural sciences and extensive collaboration across USGS science centers and with partners in Federal, State, and local agencies, academia, industry, nongovernmental organizations and, most importantly, the American public. The first four goals of this report describe the scientific issues facing society in the next 10 years and the actions and products needed to respond to these issues. The final two goals focus on the expertise and infrastructure needed to ensure the long-term sustainability of the geological sciences in the USGS. The ultimate goal of USGS science and of the strategy laid out in this document is to contribute to the development of a sustainable society that operates in harmony with the Earth systems that society depends upon. As we begin the second decade of the 21st century, our Nation faces growing challenges in resource availability, climate and environmental change, and natural hazards. Meeting these challenges will require strong collaboration across the natural and social sciences and extensive partnerships with both the public and private sectors. The six goals described in this document represent a mix of scientific focus areas and operational necessities that together provide a comprehensive roadmap for USGS geologic science to effectively contribute to the USGS mission, providing science for a changing world.

Circular↗