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USGS1953

Coal resources of the United States (a progress report, October 1, 1953)

As estimated in this second progress report, the coal reserves of the United States remaining in the ground on January 1, 1953, total 1,899,739 million tons. This figure is about a 20 percent reduction of the total estimate published in the first progress report (Averitt and Berryhill, 1950). The new total is based on new, detailed, conservative estimates of reserves in Indiana, Michigan, Montana, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, South Dakota, Virginia, and Wyoming, prepared since 1947 by the U. S. Geological Survey; on new provisional, but equally conservative estimates of reserves in Colorado, Maryland, and Georgia, based on previous work of the U. S. Geological Survey and other agencies; on estimates of reserves in Illinois, Kansas, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia, prepared by the geological surveys of those States; and on older and incompletely documented estimates for the remaining states. The older estimates were prepared on a highly generalized basis and were intended to represent total possible reserves in both thick and thin beds and under both light and heavy overburden. The recent estimates have been prepared on a more conservative basis than the older estimates and tend to be considerably smaller. New conservative estimates have now been prepared for 16 coal-bearing States, which include about two-thirds of the total estimated reserves of the United States. As new estimates are prepared for the remaining States a further reduction of the total reserve figure is in prospect, though the reserves still will be large. The estimated recoverable reserves of the United States as of January 1, 1953, total 949,870 million tons, based on the assumption that half of the coal reserves in the ground will be lost in mining, and half will be recovered. The distribution of the remaining and recoverable reserves by rank is shown in the accompanying table. The reserves in 10 States have been classified in considerable detail according to thickness of beds, thickness of overburden, and relative abundance of reliable information available for making estimates. In these States, which are representative of several coal provinces, and contain about 40 percent of the total reserves, and are thus typical of the United States as a whole, 5 percent of the total is measured reserves in beds 28 inches or more thick, and less than 1,000 feet below the surface; and 20 percent is indicated reserves within the same limit of thickness and less than 2,000 feet below the surface. The remaining 75 percent is inferred reserves, reserves in thin beds, and reserves 2,000 to 3,000 feet below the surface. The large percentage of inferred reserves obviously includes some coal in thick beds, which for lack of detailed information cannot be appraised quantitatively. Although accurately based on the data now available, the distribution percentages are subject to considerable change as new work is completed, particularly in the transfer of reserves from the indicated and inferred categories to the measured category. The figures serve, however, to indicate the present state of knowledge of the Nation's coal reserves, and they point to the need for additional geologic mapping and exploration.

Circular↗

USGS2023

Low Kirtland’s Warbler fledgling survival in Wisconsin plantations relative to Michigan plantations

The Kirtland’s Warbler ( Setophaga kirtlandii ) is a formerly endangered habitat specialist that breeds mainly in young jack pine ( Pinus banksiana ) forests in northern Lower Michigan, USA. The species is conservation-reliant and depends on habitat management. Management actions have primarily focused on creating jack pine plantations, but the species also breeds in red pine ( Pinus resinosa ) plantations in central Wisconsin, USA. However, the plantations were not intended as breeding habitat and have suboptimal pine densities. While nesting success is similar between low-density red pine plantations and optimal jack pine habitat, it is not clear if low-density red pine plantations support high fledging survival. If high-quality nesting and post-fledging habitat are not synonymous, fledgling survival and breeding population recruitment may be low. We characterized survival, habitat use, and movement patterns of dependent Kirtland’s Warbler fledglings in Wisconsin red pine plantations and compared fledgling survival between Wisconsin and Michigan. Mayfield cumulative survival estimates at 30 days post-fledging were 0.20 for Wisconsin fledglings and 0.43–0.78 for Michigan fledglings. Logistic exposure cumulative survival estimates for Wisconsin fledglings were 0.23–0.34 at 30 days post-fledging. Fledglings in Wisconsin used areas where vegetation cover and density of red and jack pine were high relative to available areas but not at greater proportions than what was available. Our findings demonstrate that red pine plantations with low pine densities were not equally suitable as nesting and post-fledging habitat, as fledgling survival rates were low. We hypothesize that reduced habitat structure, and not particular pine species, likely contributed to reduced fledgling survival in Wisconsin. Thus, we recommend including red pine as a component in managed Kirtland’s Warbler habitat only if tree densities approach optimal levels.

Michigan, Wisconsin↗

USGS1963

Ground-water contamination and legal controls in Michigan

The great importance of the fresh ground-water resources of Michigan is evident because 90 percent of the rural and about 70 percent of the total population of the State exclusive of the Detroit metropolitan area are supplied from underground sources. The water-supply and public-health problems that have been caused by some cases of ground-water contamination in the State illustrate the necessity of protecting this vital resource. Manmade and natural contaminants, including many types of chemical and organic matter, have entered many of the numerous aquifers of the State. Aquifers have been contaminated by waste-laden liquids percolating from the surface or from the zone of aeration and by direct injection to the aquifer itself. Industrial and domestic wastes, septic tanks, leaking sewers, flood waters or other poor quality surface waters, mine waters, solids stored or spread at the surface, and even airborne wastes all have been sources of ground-water contamination in Michigan. In addition, naturally occurring saline waters have been induced into other aquifers by overpumping or unrestricted flow from artesian wells, possibly by dewatering operations, and by the deepening of surface stream channels. Vertical migration of saline waters through open holes from formations underlying various important aquifers also has spoiled some of the fresh ground waters in the State. In spite of the contamination that has occurred, however, the total amount of ground water that has been spoiled is only a small part of the total resource. Neither is the contamination so widespread as that of the surface streams of Michigan. Overall legal authority to control most types of ground-water contamination in the State has been assigned by the Michigan Legislature to the Water Resources Commission, although the Department of Conservation and the Health Department also exercise important water-pollution control functions. The Michigan Supreme Court, in an important case upholding the power of the Water Resources Commission to control pollution of ground water, in effect has introduced the doctrine of reasonable use into the law of the State. Excluding controls administered by the Department of Conservation on activities of the oil and gas industry, however, legal controls have not been used abate intrusion of natural saline waters into fresh-water aquifers in response to pumping and other manmade changes in the hydrologic regimen.

Michigan↗

USGS2001

Partners in flight bird conservation plan for the Upper Great Lakes Plain (Physiographic Area 16)

1 November 2001. Conservation of bird habitats is a major focus of effort by Partners in Flight, an international coalition of agencies, citizens, and other groups dedicated to 'keeping common birds common'. USGS worked on a planning team to publish a bird conservation plan for the Upper Great Lakes Plain ecoregion (PIF 16), which includes large portions of southern Wisconsin, southern Michigan and parts of Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. The conservation plan outlines specific habitat restoration and bird population objectives for the ecoregion over the next decade. The plan provides a context for on-the-ground conservation implementation by the US Fish and Wildlife Service, the USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service, the US Forest Service, states, and conservation groups. Citation: Knutson, M. G., G. Butcher, J. Fitzgerald, and J. Shieldcastle. 2001. Partners in Flight Bird Conservation Plan for The Upper Great Lakes Plain (Physiographic Area 16). USGS Upper Midwest Environmental Sciences Center in cooperation with Partners in Flight, La Crosse, Wisconsin. Download from website: http://www.blm.gov/wildlife/pifplans.htm. The Upper Great Lakes Plain covers the southern half of Michigan, northwest Ohio, northern Indiana, northern Illinois, southern Wisconsin, and small portions of southwest Minnesota and northwest Iowa. Glacial moraines and dissected plateaus are characteristic of the topography. Broadleaf forests, oak savannahs, and a variety of prairie communities are the natural vegetation types. A oDriftless Areao was not glaciated during the late Pleistocene and emerged as a unique area of great biological diversity. Priority bird species for the area include the Henslow's Sparrow, Sedge Wren, Bobolink, Golden-winged Warbler, Cerulean Warbler, Black-billed Cuckoo, and Red-headed Woodpecker. There are many large urban centers in this area whose growth and sprawl will continue to consume land. The vast majority of the presettlement forest and oak savannah grasslands already have been converted to agriculture. The conversion to cropland may have benefitted some grassland birds, and forest birds still persist. Rates of cowbird parasitism and nest predation in this heavily fragmented region, however, are extremely high and it is possible that only those bird communities in the few remaining expanses of contiguous habitat are self-sustaining. Forest habitat needs to be retained or restored so that a significant number of patches of sufficient size and quality each support a healthy population of Cerulean Warblers. It is assumed that each of these patches will then support the full range of forest birds. The total area of savannah habitat also should be increased, although the need for large blocks is not as apparent. Those few areas of grassland that still exist should be retained.

Report↗

USGS2021

Coalescent methods reconstruct contributions of natural colonization and stocking to origins of Michigan inland Cisco (Coregonus artedi)

Fish population structure in previously glaciated regions is often influenced by natural colonization processes and human-mediated dispersal, including fish stocking. Endemic populations are of conservation interest because they may contain rare and unique genetic variation. While coregonines are native to certain Michigan inland lakes, some were stocked with fish from Great Lakes sources, calling into question the origin of extant populations. While most stocking targeted lake whitefish ( Coregonus clupeaformis ), cisco ( C. artedi ) were also stocked from the Great Lakes to inland waterbodies. We used population genetic data (microsatellite genotypes and mitochondrial (mt)DNA sequences), coalescent modeling, and approximate Bayesian computation to investigate the origins of 12 inland Michigan cisco populations. The spatial distribution of mtDNA haplotypes suggests Michigan is an introgression zone for two ancestral cisco lineages associated with separate glacial refugia. Low levels of genetic diversity and high levels of genetic divergence were observed for populations located well inland of the Great Lakes relative to populations occupying waterbodies near the Great Lakes. Estimates of recent Great Lakes gene flow ranged from 27 to 48% for populations near the Great Lakes shoreline but were substantially lower (under 8%) for populations further inland. Inland lakes with elevated recent gene flow estimates may have been recipients of stocked coregonine fry, including cisco. Low levels of genetic diversity paired with a high likelihood of endemism as indicated by strong genetic divergence and low Great Lakes population inputs suggest the analyzed cisco populations occupying southern Michigan kettle lakes are of elevated conservation interest.

Michigan↗

USGS2012

Transformation through time: How wildlife disease became a focus of conservation

When I began my career as an assistant waterfowl biologist in 1956, wildlife disease was not a major concern for conservation agencies. Some states— such as California, Michigan, New York, Wyoming, and Colorado— had small internal wildlife disease programs to investigate wildlife mortality events, and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) had a program focused on migratory birds.

The Wildlife Professional↗

USGS2022

High-density genomic data reveal fine-scale population structure and pronounced islands of adaptive divergence in lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis) from Lake Michigan

Understanding patterns of genetic structure and adaptive variation in natural populations is crucial for informing conservation and management. Past genetic research using 11 microsatellite loci identified six genetic stocks of lake whitefish ( Coregonus clupeaformis ) within Lake Michigan, USA. However, ambiguity in genetic stock assignments suggested those neutral microsatellite markers did not provide adequate power for delineating lake whitefish stocks in this system, prompting calls for a genomics approach to investigate stock structure. Here, we generated a dense genomic dataset to characterize population structure and investigate patterns of neutral and adaptive genetic diversity among lake whitefish populations in Lake Michigan. Using Rapture sequencing, we genotyped 829 individuals collected from 17 baseline populations at 197,588 SNP markers after quality filtering. Although the overall pattern of genetic structure was similar to the previous microsatellite study, our genomic data provided several novel insights. Our results indicated a large genetic break between the northwestern and eastern sides of Lake Michigan, and we found a much greater level of population structure on the eastern side compared to the northwestern side. Collectively, we observed five genomic islands of adaptive divergence on five different chromosomes. Each island displayed a different pattern of population structure, suggesting that combinations of genotypes at these adaptive regions are facilitating local adaptation to spatially heterogenous selection pressures. Additionally, we identified a large linkage disequilibrium block of ~8.5 Mb on chromosome 20 that is suggestive of a putative inversion but with a low frequency of the minor haplotype. Our study provides a comprehensive assessment of population structure and adaptive variation that can help inform the management of Lake Michigan's lake whitefish fishery and highlights the utility of incorporating adaptive loci into fisheries management.

Michigan, Wisconsin↗

USGS2020

Describing historical habitat use of a native fish-Cisco (Coregonus artedi)-In Lake Michigan between 1930 and 1932

With the global-scale loss of biodiversity, current restoration programs have been often required as part of conservation plans for species richness and ecosystem integrity. The restoration of pelagic-oriented cisco ( Coregonus artedi ) has been an interest of Lake Michigan managers because it may increase the diversity and resilience of the fish assemblages and conserve the integrity of the ecosystems in a changing environment. To inform restoration, we described historical habitat use of cisco by analyzing a unique fishery-independent dataset collected in 1930–1932 by the U.S. Bureau of Fisheries’ first research vessel Fulmar and a commercial catch dataset reported by the State of Michigan in the same period, both based on gear fished on the bottom. Our results confirmed that the two major embayments, Green Bay and Grand Traverse Bay, were important habitats for cisco and suggest that cisco could complete the entire lifecycle within either of the Bays as there was no lack of summer feeding and fall spawning habitats. Seasonally, our results showed that cisco stayed in nearshore waters in spring, migrated to offshore waters in summer, and then migrated back to nearshore waters in fall for spawning. The results also suggest that in summer, most ciscoes were in waters with bottom depths of 20–70 m, but the highest cisco density occurred in waters with a bottom depth around 40 m. We highlight the importance of embayment habitats to cisco restoration and the seasonal migration pattern of cisco identified in this study, which suggests that a restored cisco population can diversify the food web by occupying different habitats from the exotic fishes that now dominate the pelagic waters of Lake Michigan.

Lake Michigan↗

USGS2009

Characteristics of a refuge for native freshwater mussels (Bivalvia: Unionidae) in Lake St. Clair

The Lake St. Clair delta (??? 100??km 2 ) provides an important refuge for native freshwater mussels (Unionidae) wherein 22 of the ??? 35 historical species co-occur with invasive dreissenids. A total of 1875 live unionids representing 22 species were found during snorkeling surveys of 32 shallow (??? 1??m) sites throughout the delta. Richness and density of unionids and zebra mussel infestation rates varied among sites from 3 to 13 unionid species, 0.02 to 0.12 unionids/m 2 , and < 1 to 35 zebra mussels/unionid, respectively. Zebra mussel infestation of unionids in the delta appears to be mitigated by dominant offshore currents, which limit densities of zebra mussel veligers in nearshore compared to offshore waters (13,600 vs. 28,000/m 3 , respectively). Glycogen concentrations in the tissues of a common and widespread species in the delta (Lampsilis siliquoidea) suggest that zebra mussels may be adversely affecting physiological condition of unionids in a portion of the Lake St. Clair delta. Physiological condition and community structure of unionids within the delta may also be influenced by differences in food quantity and quality resulting from the uneven distribution of water flowing from the St. Clair River. The delta likely supports the largest living unionid community in the lower Great Lakes and includes several species that have been listed as Endangered or Threatened in Canada and/or the state of Michigan, making it an important refuge for the conservation of native unionids. Crown Copyright ?? 2009.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗

USGS1932

A study of surface currents in Lake Michigan

Crotalaria as a cover crop is gaining attention in our country's conservation program. This genus of the legume or pulse family consists of more than 100 species. Of this number at least six are known to be very toxic to cattle, sheep, and horses. The seeds of Crotalaria spectabilis are poisonous to bob-whites. Under ordinary conditions, however, they are not eaten by the birds when there is a choice of feeding stuffs.

The Fisherman↗

USGS2025

A high efficiency method for the extraction and quantitative analysis of 45 PFAS in whole fish

This study describes and validates a new method for extracting perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) from whole-body fish tissue, demonstrates that freeze-dry preservation of tissue conserves bioaccumulative PFAS, and details a method demonstration on Lake Michigan fish. While fish filets are more commonly analyzed for their significance to human health, whole fish are useful to determine ecological impacts, but published methods such as EPA 1633 do not produce reliable results for this more challenging matrix. Here we show that lipid removal technology produces clean extracts without the need for solid-phase extraction or evaporative concentration, which often lead to loss of some PFAS. This method achieves an accuracy of 96 ± 9% for the detection of 45 PFAS while also offering benefits of a simple procedure, reduced processing time, and decreased waste generation compared to multistep cleanup and concentration methods. A test of freeze-drying demonstrated that compounds detected in Great Lakes fish were retained, but volatile compounds including sulfonamide precursors and ethanols were lost. To demonstrate field performance, the entire method was applied to whole-fish composites from Lake Michigan. Results from these samples reveal that the PFAS concentration was driven by collection location, while the distribution of PFAS was dictated by fish species.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

USGS2008

Fecal-indicator bacteria and Escherichia coli pathogen data collected near a novel sub-irrigation water-treatment system in Lenawee County, Michigan, June-November 2007

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Lenawee County Conservation District in Lenawee County, Mich., conducted a sampling effort over a single growing season (June to November 2007) to evaluate the microbiological water quality around a novel livestock reservoir wetland sub-irrigation system. Samples were collected and analyzed for fecal coliform bacteria, Escherichia coli ( E. coli ) bacteria, and six genes from pathogenic strains of E. coli . A total of 73 water-quality samples were collected on nine occasions from June to November 2007. These samples were collected within the surface water, shallow ground water, and the manure-treatment system near Bakerlads Farm near Clayton in Lenawee County, Mich. Fecal coliform bacteria concentrations ranged from 10 to 1.26 million colony forming units per 100 milliliters (CFU/100 mL). E. coli bacteria concentrations ranged from 8 to 540,000 CFU/100 mL. Data from the E. coli pathogen analysis showed that 73 percent of samples contained the eaeA gene, 1 percent of samples contained the stx2 gene, 37 percent of samples contained the stx1 gene, 21 percent of samples contained the rfb O157 gene, and 64 percent of samples contained the LTIIa gene.

Michigan↗

USGS2025

Optimization of wetland environmental DNA metabarcoding protocols for Great Lakes region herpetofauna

Many species of reptiles and amphibians (herpetofauna) rely on wetlands that are being degraded and lost at a high rate. Characterization of herpetofauna diversity in different wetland types may help guide conservation strategies. However, traditional survey methods often involve sampling within small temporal windows, and the gear deployed may be taxonomically biased, thus, they may fail to accurately characterize species presence/absence and diversity. In contrast, environmental (e)DNA metabarcoding has been shown to effectively survey entire aquatic communities and can provide a useful complement to traditional surveys. The objective of this study was to design and optimize eDNA sampling and laboratory protocols for wetland herpetofauna. Protocols evaluated included different water sampling approaches (point versus transect sampling), seasonality of sampling, and choice of metabarcoding marker (mitochondrial 12S versus 16S rDNA). Samples collected from 10 sites across southern Michigan detected 17 amphibian and five reptile species, including four species of conservation concern ( Ambystoma texanum , Clemmys guttata , Rana palustris , and Sternotherus odoratus ). We observed no difference in the number of species detected between point and transect samples ( p = 0.70), but point sampling required less time ( p = 0.03) and allowed significantly larger volumes of water to be filtered ( p = 1.13e-5). No difference in species richness was observed between the 12S and 16S mitochondrial DNA markers ( p = 0.96). However, a greater number of taxa were identifiable at the species level when using the 16S locus. There was also a significant difference in the number of species detected between early and late summer sampling periods (more species detected in the earlier period; p = 6.31e-6), and some species were only found in the early or late sampling period. Sampling during multiple periods to fully characterize species composition, the use of point sampling, and the 16S mtDNA marker for herpetofauna eDNA metabarcoding studies may increase efficiency and reliability of results.

Environmental DNA↗

USGS2010

The conservation management of Kirtland's warbler Dendroica kirtlandii

Kirtland's Warbler Dendroica kirtlandii breeds in young jack pine Pinus banksiana forests on sandy soils in Michigan's lower peninsula, where there were 502 censused singing males in 1951 and 167 in 1974 and 1987. An ongoing control programme for the Brown-headed Cowbird Molothrus ater , a nest parasite, resulted in immediate and continued improvement in warbler reproductive success which was not, however, matched by an increase in warbler numbers until the 1990s. From three 1,000 ha reserves in the 1960s, currently over 54,000 ha are managed for the warbler. Despite the establishment of managed plantations, over 70% of warblers censused in the past 15 years have occupied habitat created by wildfires. Optimal habitat consists of more than 5,000 trees per hectare in a mosaic of dense patches interspersed with small openings. Nearly 70% of adult and 30% of juvenile warblers departing for the Bahamian wintering grounds return each spring, and the Michigan singing male population increased from 212 (1989) to 397 (1992) as abundant habitat, resulting from a 1980 wildfire, became available at Mack Lake. This suggests that lack of optimal habitat in Michigan has been the species's major problem.

Bird Conservation International↗

USGS2014

The 3D Elevation Program: summary for Michigan

Elevation data are essential to a broad range of applications, including forest resources management, wildlife and habitat management, national security, recreation, and many others. For the State of Michigan, elevation data are critical for agriculture and precision farming, natural resources conservation, flood risk management, water supply and quality, infrastructure and construction management, coastal zone management, and other business uses. Today, high-density light detection and ranging (lidar) data are the primary sources for deriving elevation models and other datasets. Federal, State, Tribal, and local agencies work in partnership to (1) replace data that are older and of lower quality and (2) provide coverage where publicly accessible data do not exist. A joint goal of State and Federal partners is to acquire consistent, statewide coverage to support existing and emerging applications enabled by lidar data. The National Enhanced Elevation Assessment evaluated multiple elevation data acquisition options to determine the optimal data quality and data replacement cycle relative to cost to meet the identified requirements of the user community. The evaluation demonstrated that lidar acquisition at quality level 2 for the conterminous United States and quality level 5 interferometric synthetic aperture radar (ifsar) data for Alaska with a 6- to 10-year acquisition cycle provided the highest benefit/cost ratios. The 3D Elevation Program (3DEP) initiative selected an 8-year acquisition cycle for the respective quality levels. 3DEP, managed by the U.S. Geological Survey, the Office of Management and Budget Circular A–16 lead agency for terrestrial elevation data, responds to the growing need for high-quality topographic data and a wide range of other 3D representations of the Nation's natural and constructed features. The Michigan Statewide Authoritative Imagery and Lidar (MiSAIL) program provides statewide lidar coordination with local, State, and national groups in support of 3DEP for Michigan.

Michigan↗

USGS2022

Challenges in linking soil health to edge-of-field water quality across the Great Lakes basin

To better understand agricultural nutrient losses, we evaluated relationships between management (e.g., manure and tillage), soil health measurements, and resulting edge-of-field (EOF) surface water quality. This work was conducted before or early into conservation implementation at 14 Great Lakes Restoration Initiative EOF sites spanning Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, and New York. Analyses of site characteristics (hydroclimate, management, catchment properties) along with 3 yr of soil health measurements (chemical, biological, and physical properties) showed EOF-nutrient export depended on both site and soil properties. A pattern emerged whereby sites not receiving manure and sites with manure defined opposite ends of several gradients for soil and water data. Sites receiving manure had increased microbial activity, organic matter (3.2 vs. 2.7%), and soil test phosphorus (P) (2.8 times more) relative to sites without manure. Suspended sediments (SS), total P (TP), and total nitrogen (TN) in EOF surface runoff varied over three to five orders. Multivariate analysis among sites showed covariant linkages between soil nutrients, soil C, microbial properties, and nutrients in EOF water. There were positive univariate relationships between water-extractable soil P and annual EOF-water concentrations and yields of orthophosphate, TP, TN, and SS ( p < .01). Some soil physical properties (e.g., bulk density and infiltration) also covaried among sites but were not consistently related to runoff index or water yield variables. Given the observed among-site variability, we were not able to isolate desirable soil health signals on EOF surface water quality.

Journal of Environmental Quality↗

USGS2010

Application of AFINCH as a tool for evaluating the effects of streamflow-gaging-network size and composition on the accuracy and precision of streamflow estimates at ungaged locations in the southeast Lake Michigan hydrologic subregion

Bootstrapping techniques employing random subsampling were used with the AFINCH (Analysis of Flows In Networks of CHannels) model to gain insights into the effects of variation in streamflow-gaging-network size and composition on the accuracy and precision of streamflow estimates at ungaged locations in the 0405 (Southeast Lake Michigan) hydrologic subregion. AFINCH uses stepwise-regression techniques to estimate monthly water yields from catchments based on geospatial-climate and land-cover data in combination with available streamflow and water-use data. Calculations are performed on a hydrologic-subregion scale for each catchment and stream reach contained in a National Hydrography Dataset Plus (NHDPlus) subregion. Water yields from contributing catchments are multiplied by catchment areas and resulting flow values are accumulated to compute streamflows in stream reaches which are referred to as flow lines. AFINCH imposes constraints on water yields to ensure that observed streamflows are conserved at gaged locations. Data from the 0405 hydrologic subregion (referred to as Southeast Lake Michigan) were used for the analyses. Daily streamflow data were measured in the subregion for 1 or more years at a total of 75 streamflow-gaging stations during the analysis period which spanned water years 1971–2003. The number of streamflow gages in operation each year during the analysis period ranged from 42 to 56 and averaged 47. Six sets (one set for each censoring level), each composed of 30 random subsets of the 75 streamflow gages, were created by censoring (removing) approximately 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, and 75 percent of the streamflow gages (the actual percentage of operating streamflow gages censored for each set varied from year to year, and within the year from subset to subset, but averaged approximately the indicated percentages). Streamflow estimates for six flow lines each were aggregated by censoring level, and results were analyzed to assess (a) how the size and composition of the streamflow-gaging network affected the average apparent errors and variability of the estimated flows and (b) whether results for certain months were more variable than for others. The six flow lines were categorized into one of three types depending upon their network topology and position relative to operating streamflow-gaging stations. Statistical analysis of the model results indicates that (1) less precise (that is, more variable) estimates resulted from smaller streamflow-gaging networks as compared to larger streamflow-gaging networks, (2) precision of AFINCH flow estimates at an ungaged flow line is improved by operation of one or more streamflow gages upstream and (or) downstream in the enclosing basin, (3) no consistent seasonal trend in estimate variability was evident, and (4) flow lines from ungaged basins appeared to exhibit the smallest absolute apparent percent errors (APEs) and smallest changes in average APE as a function of increasing censoring level. The counterintuitive results described in item (4) above likely reflect both the nature of the base-streamflow estimate from which the errors were computed and insensitivity in the average model-derived estimates to changes in the streamflow-gaging-network size and composition. Another analysis demonstrated that errors for flow lines in ungaged basins have the potential to be much larger than indicated by their APEs if measured relative to their true (but unknown) flows. “Missing gage” analyses, based on examination of censoring subset results where the streamflow gage of interest was omitted from the calibration data set, were done to better understand the true error characteristics for ungaged flow lines as a function of network size. Results examined for 2 water years indicated that the probability of computing a monthly streamflow estimate within 10 percent of the true value with AFINCH decreased from greater than 0.9 at about a 10-percent network-censoring level to less than 0.6 as the censoring level approached 75 percent. In addition, estimates for typically dry months tended to be characterized by larger percent errors than typically wetter months.

Indiana, Michigan↗

USGS2018

Calibration of a field-scale Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model with field placement of best management practices in Alger Creek, Michigan

Subwatersheds within the Great Lakes “Priority Watersheds” were targeted by the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative (GLRI) to determine the effectiveness of the various best management practices (BMPs) from the U.S. Department of Agriculture-Natural Resources Conservation Service National Conservation Planning (NCP) Database. A Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is created for Alger Creek, a 50 km 2 tributary watershed to the Saginaw River in Michigan. Monthly calibration yielded very good Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) ratings for flow, sediment, total phosphorus (TP), dissolved reactive phosphorus (DRP), and total nitrogen (TN) (0.90, 0.79, 0.87, 0.88, and 0.77, respectively), and satisfactory NSE rating for nitrate (0.51). Two-year validation results in at least satisfactory NSE ratings for flow, sediment, TP, DRP, and TN (0.83, 0.54, 0.73, 0.53, and 0.60, respectively), and unsatisfactory NSE rating for nitrate (0.28). The model estimates the effect of BMPs at the field and watershed scales. At the field-scale, the most effective single practice at reducing sediment, TP, and DRP is no-tillage followed by cover crops (CC); CC are the most effective single practice at reducing nitrate. The most effective BMP combinations include filter strips, which can have a sizable effect on reducing sediment and phosphorus loads. At the watershed scale, model results indicate current NCP BMPs result in minimal sediment and nutrient reductions (<10%).

Michigan↗