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Partners in flight bird conservation plan for the Upper Great Lakes Plain (Physiographic Area 16)

1 November 2001. Conservation of bird habitats is a major focus of effort by Partners in Flight, an international coalition of agencies, citizens, and other groups dedicated to 'keeping common birds common'. USGS worked on a planning team to publish a bird conservation plan for the Upper Great Lakes Plain ecoregion (PIF 16), which includes large portions of southern Wisconsin, southern Michigan and parts of Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. The conservation plan outlines specific habitat restoration and bird population objectives for the ecoregion over the next decade. The plan provides a context for on-the-ground conservation implementation by the US Fish and Wildlife Service, the USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service, the US Forest Service, states, and conservation groups. Citation: Knutson, M. G., G. Butcher, J. Fitzgerald, and J. Shieldcastle. 2001. Partners in Flight Bird Conservation Plan for The Upper Great Lakes Plain (Physiographic Area 16). USGS Upper Midwest Environmental Sciences Center in cooperation with Partners in Flight, La Crosse, Wisconsin. Download from website: http://www.blm.gov/wildlife/pifplans.htm. The Upper Great Lakes Plain covers the southern half of Michigan, northwest Ohio, northern Indiana, northern Illinois, southern Wisconsin, and small portions of southwest Minnesota and northwest Iowa. Glacial moraines and dissected plateaus are characteristic of the topography. Broadleaf forests, oak savannahs, and a variety of prairie communities are the natural vegetation types. A oDriftless Areao was not glaciated during the late Pleistocene and emerged as a unique area of great biological diversity. Priority bird species for the area include the Henslow's Sparrow, Sedge Wren, Bobolink, Golden-winged Warbler, Cerulean Warbler, Black-billed Cuckoo, and Red-headed Woodpecker. There are many large urban centers in this area whose growth and sprawl will continue to consume land. The vast majority of the presettlement forest and oak savannah grasslands already have been converted to agriculture. The conversion to cropland may have benefitted some grassland birds, and forest birds still persist. Rates of cowbird parasitism and nest predation in this heavily fragmented region, however, are extremely high and it is possible that only those bird communities in the few remaining expanses of contiguous habitat are self-sustaining. Forest habitat needs to be retained or restored so that a significant number of patches of sufficient size and quality each support a healthy population of Cerulean Warblers. It is assumed that each of these patches will then support the full range of forest birds. The total area of savannah habitat also should be increased, although the need for large blocks is not as apparent. Those few areas of grassland that still exist should be retained.

Report

Coalescent methods reconstruct contributions of natural colonization and stocking to origins of Michigan inland Cisco (Coregonus artedi)

Fish population structure in previously glaciated regions is often influenced by natural colonization processes and human-mediated dispersal, including fish stocking. Endemic populations are of conservation interest because they may contain rare and unique genetic variation. While coregonines are native to certain Michigan inland lakes, some were stocked with fish from Great Lakes sources, calling into question the origin of extant populations. While most stocking targeted lake whitefish ( Coregonus clupeaformis ), cisco ( C. artedi ) were also stocked from the Great Lakes to inland waterbodies. We used population genetic data (microsatellite genotypes and mitochondrial (mt)DNA sequences), coalescent modeling, and approximate Bayesian computation to investigate the origins of 12 inland Michigan cisco populations. The spatial distribution of mtDNA haplotypes suggests Michigan is an introgression zone for two ancestral cisco lineages associated with separate glacial refugia. Low levels of genetic diversity and high levels of genetic divergence were observed for populations located well inland of the Great Lakes relative to populations occupying waterbodies near the Great Lakes. Estimates of recent Great Lakes gene flow ranged from 27 to 48% for populations near the Great Lakes shoreline but were substantially lower (under 8%) for populations further inland. Inland lakes with elevated recent gene flow estimates may have been recipients of stocked coregonine fry, including cisco. Low levels of genetic diversity paired with a high likelihood of endemism as indicated by strong genetic divergence and low Great Lakes population inputs suggest the analyzed cisco populations occupying southern Michigan kettle lakes are of elevated conservation interest.

Michigan

Transformation through time: How wildlife disease became a focus of conservation

When I began my career as an assistant waterfowl biologist in 1956, wildlife disease was not a major concern for conservation agencies. Some states— such as California, Michigan, New York, Wyoming, and Colorado— had small internal wildlife disease programs to investigate wildlife mortality events, and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) had a program focused on migratory birds.

The Wildlife Professional

High-density genomic data reveal fine-scale population structure and pronounced islands of adaptive divergence in lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis) from Lake Michigan

Understanding patterns of genetic structure and adaptive variation in natural populations is crucial for informing conservation and management. Past genetic research using 11 microsatellite loci identified six genetic stocks of lake whitefish ( Coregonus clupeaformis ) within Lake Michigan, USA. However, ambiguity in genetic stock assignments suggested those neutral microsatellite markers did not provide adequate power for delineating lake whitefish stocks in this system, prompting calls for a genomics approach to investigate stock structure. Here, we generated a dense genomic dataset to characterize population structure and investigate patterns of neutral and adaptive genetic diversity among lake whitefish populations in Lake Michigan. Using Rapture sequencing, we genotyped 829 individuals collected from 17 baseline populations at 197,588 SNP markers after quality filtering. Although the overall pattern of genetic structure was similar to the previous microsatellite study, our genomic data provided several novel insights. Our results indicated a large genetic break between the northwestern and eastern sides of Lake Michigan, and we found a much greater level of population structure on the eastern side compared to the northwestern side. Collectively, we observed five genomic islands of adaptive divergence on five different chromosomes. Each island displayed a different pattern of population structure, suggesting that combinations of genotypes at these adaptive regions are facilitating local adaptation to spatially heterogenous selection pressures. Additionally, we identified a large linkage disequilibrium block of ~8.5 Mb on chromosome 20 that is suggestive of a putative inversion but with a low frequency of the minor haplotype. Our study provides a comprehensive assessment of population structure and adaptive variation that can help inform the management of Lake Michigan's lake whitefish fishery and highlights the utility of incorporating adaptive loci into fisheries management.

Michigan, Wisconsin

Describing historical habitat use of a native fish-Cisco (Coregonus artedi)-In Lake Michigan between 1930 and 1932

With the global-scale loss of biodiversity, current restoration programs have been often required as part of conservation plans for species richness and ecosystem integrity. The restoration of pelagic-oriented cisco ( Coregonus artedi ) has been an interest of Lake Michigan managers because it may increase the diversity and resilience of the fish assemblages and conserve the integrity of the ecosystems in a changing environment. To inform restoration, we described historical habitat use of cisco by analyzing a unique fishery-independent dataset collected in 1930–1932 by the U.S. Bureau of Fisheries’ first research vessel Fulmar and a commercial catch dataset reported by the State of Michigan in the same period, both based on gear fished on the bottom. Our results confirmed that the two major embayments, Green Bay and Grand Traverse Bay, were important habitats for cisco and suggest that cisco could complete the entire lifecycle within either of the Bays as there was no lack of summer feeding and fall spawning habitats. Seasonally, our results showed that cisco stayed in nearshore waters in spring, migrated to offshore waters in summer, and then migrated back to nearshore waters in fall for spawning. The results also suggest that in summer, most ciscoes were in waters with bottom depths of 20–70 m, but the highest cisco density occurred in waters with a bottom depth around 40 m. We highlight the importance of embayment habitats to cisco restoration and the seasonal migration pattern of cisco identified in this study, which suggests that a restored cisco population can diversify the food web by occupying different habitats from the exotic fishes that now dominate the pelagic waters of Lake Michigan.

Lake Michigan

Characteristics of a refuge for native freshwater mussels (Bivalvia: Unionidae) in Lake St. Clair

The Lake St. Clair delta (??? 100??km 2 ) provides an important refuge for native freshwater mussels (Unionidae) wherein 22 of the ??? 35 historical species co-occur with invasive dreissenids. A total of 1875 live unionids representing 22 species were found during snorkeling surveys of 32 shallow (??? 1??m) sites throughout the delta. Richness and density of unionids and zebra mussel infestation rates varied among sites from 3 to 13 unionid species, 0.02 to 0.12 unionids/m 2 , and < 1 to 35 zebra mussels/unionid, respectively. Zebra mussel infestation of unionids in the delta appears to be mitigated by dominant offshore currents, which limit densities of zebra mussel veligers in nearshore compared to offshore waters (13,600 vs. 28,000/m 3 , respectively). Glycogen concentrations in the tissues of a common and widespread species in the delta (Lampsilis siliquoidea) suggest that zebra mussels may be adversely affecting physiological condition of unionids in a portion of the Lake St. Clair delta. Physiological condition and community structure of unionids within the delta may also be influenced by differences in food quantity and quality resulting from the uneven distribution of water flowing from the St. Clair River. The delta likely supports the largest living unionid community in the lower Great Lakes and includes several species that have been listed as Endangered or Threatened in Canada and/or the state of Michigan, making it an important refuge for the conservation of native unionids. Crown Copyright ?? 2009.

Journal of Great Lakes Research

A study of surface currents in Lake Michigan

Crotalaria as a cover crop is gaining attention in our country's conservation program. This genus of the legume or pulse family consists of more than 100 species. Of this number at least six are known to be very toxic to cattle, sheep, and horses. The seeds of Crotalaria spectabilis are poisonous to bob-whites. Under ordinary conditions, however, they are not eaten by the birds when there is a choice of feeding stuffs.

The Fisherman

A high efficiency method for the extraction and quantitative analysis of 45 PFAS in whole fish

This study describes and validates a new method for extracting perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) from whole-body fish tissue, demonstrates that freeze-dry preservation of tissue conserves bioaccumulative PFAS, and details a method demonstration on Lake Michigan fish. While fish filets are more commonly analyzed for their significance to human health, whole fish are useful to determine ecological impacts, but published methods such as EPA 1633 do not produce reliable results for this more challenging matrix. Here we show that lipid removal technology produces clean extracts without the need for solid-phase extraction or evaporative concentration, which often lead to loss of some PFAS. This method achieves an accuracy of 96 ± 9% for the detection of 45 PFAS while also offering benefits of a simple procedure, reduced processing time, and decreased waste generation compared to multistep cleanup and concentration methods. A test of freeze-drying demonstrated that compounds detected in Great Lakes fish were retained, but volatile compounds including sulfonamide precursors and ethanols were lost. To demonstrate field performance, the entire method was applied to whole-fish composites from Lake Michigan. Results from these samples reveal that the PFAS concentration was driven by collection location, while the distribution of PFAS was dictated by fish species.

Environmental Science & Technology

Optimization of wetland environmental DNA metabarcoding protocols for Great Lakes region herpetofauna

Many species of reptiles and amphibians (herpetofauna) rely on wetlands that are being degraded and lost at a high rate. Characterization of herpetofauna diversity in different wetland types may help guide conservation strategies. However, traditional survey methods often involve sampling within small temporal windows, and the gear deployed may be taxonomically biased, thus, they may fail to accurately characterize species presence/absence and diversity. In contrast, environmental (e)DNA metabarcoding has been shown to effectively survey entire aquatic communities and can provide a useful complement to traditional surveys. The objective of this study was to design and optimize eDNA sampling and laboratory protocols for wetland herpetofauna. Protocols evaluated included different water sampling approaches (point versus transect sampling), seasonality of sampling, and choice of metabarcoding marker (mitochondrial 12S versus 16S rDNA). Samples collected from 10 sites across southern Michigan detected 17 amphibian and five reptile species, including four species of conservation concern ( Ambystoma texanum , Clemmys guttata , Rana palustris , and Sternotherus odoratus ). We observed no difference in the number of species detected between point and transect samples ( p = 0.70), but point sampling required less time ( p = 0.03) and allowed significantly larger volumes of water to be filtered ( p = 1.13e-5). No difference in species richness was observed between the 12S and 16S mitochondrial DNA markers ( p = 0.96). However, a greater number of taxa were identifiable at the species level when using the 16S locus. There was also a significant difference in the number of species detected between early and late summer sampling periods (more species detected in the earlier period; p = 6.31e-6), and some species were only found in the early or late sampling period. Sampling during multiple periods to fully characterize species composition, the use of point sampling, and the 16S mtDNA marker for herpetofauna eDNA metabarcoding studies may increase efficiency and reliability of results.

Environmental DNA

The conservation management of Kirtland's warbler Dendroica kirtlandii

Kirtland's Warbler Dendroica kirtlandii breeds in young jack pine Pinus banksiana forests on sandy soils in Michigan's lower peninsula, where there were 502 censused singing males in 1951 and 167 in 1974 and 1987. An ongoing control programme for the Brown-headed Cowbird Molothrus ater , a nest parasite, resulted in immediate and continued improvement in warbler reproductive success which was not, however, matched by an increase in warbler numbers until the 1990s. From three 1,000 ha reserves in the 1960s, currently over 54,000 ha are managed for the warbler. Despite the establishment of managed plantations, over 70% of warblers censused in the past 15 years have occupied habitat created by wildfires. Optimal habitat consists of more than 5,000 trees per hectare in a mosaic of dense patches interspersed with small openings. Nearly 70% of adult and 30% of juvenile warblers departing for the Bahamian wintering grounds return each spring, and the Michigan singing male population increased from 212 (1989) to 397 (1992) as abundant habitat, resulting from a 1980 wildfire, became available at Mack Lake. This suggests that lack of optimal habitat in Michigan has been the species's major problem.

Bird Conservation International

The 3D Elevation Program: summary for Michigan

Elevation data are essential to a broad range of applications, including forest resources management, wildlife and habitat management, national security, recreation, and many others. For the State of Michigan, elevation data are critical for agriculture and precision farming, natural resources conservation, flood risk management, water supply and quality, infrastructure and construction management, coastal zone management, and other business uses. Today, high-density light detection and ranging (lidar) data are the primary sources for deriving elevation models and other datasets. Federal, State, Tribal, and local agencies work in partnership to (1) replace data that are older and of lower quality and (2) provide coverage where publicly accessible data do not exist. A joint goal of State and Federal partners is to acquire consistent, statewide coverage to support existing and emerging applications enabled by lidar data. The National Enhanced Elevation Assessment evaluated multiple elevation data acquisition options to determine the optimal data quality and data replacement cycle relative to cost to meet the identified requirements of the user community. The evaluation demonstrated that lidar acquisition at quality level 2 for the conterminous United States and quality level 5 interferometric synthetic aperture radar (ifsar) data for Alaska with a 6- to 10-year acquisition cycle provided the highest benefit/cost ratios. The 3D Elevation Program (3DEP) initiative selected an 8-year acquisition cycle for the respective quality levels. 3DEP, managed by the U.S. Geological Survey, the Office of Management and Budget Circular A&ndash;16 lead agency for terrestrial elevation data, responds to the growing need for high-quality topographic data and a wide range of other 3D representations of the Nation's natural and constructed features. The Michigan Statewide Authoritative Imagery and Lidar (MiSAIL) program provides statewide lidar coordination with local, State, and national groups in support of 3DEP for Michigan.

Michigan

Challenges in linking soil health to edge-of-field water quality across the Great Lakes basin

To better understand agricultural nutrient losses, we evaluated relationships between management (e.g., manure and tillage), soil health measurements, and resulting edge-of-field (EOF) surface water quality. This work was conducted before or early into conservation implementation at 14 Great Lakes Restoration Initiative EOF sites spanning Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, and New York. Analyses of site characteristics (hydroclimate, management, catchment properties) along with 3 yr of soil health measurements (chemical, biological, and physical properties) showed EOF-nutrient export depended on both site and soil properties. A pattern emerged whereby sites not receiving manure and sites with manure defined opposite ends of several gradients for soil and water data. Sites receiving manure had increased microbial activity, organic matter (3.2 vs. 2.7%), and soil test phosphorus (P) (2.8 times more) relative to sites without manure. Suspended sediments (SS), total P (TP), and total nitrogen (TN) in EOF surface runoff varied over three to five orders. Multivariate analysis among sites showed covariant linkages between soil nutrients, soil C, microbial properties, and nutrients in EOF water. There were positive univariate relationships between water-extractable soil P and annual EOF-water concentrations and yields of orthophosphate, TP, TN, and SS ( p < .01). Some soil physical properties (e.g., bulk density and infiltration) also covaried among sites but were not consistently related to runoff index or water yield variables. Given the observed among-site variability, we were not able to isolate desirable soil health signals on EOF surface water quality.

Journal of Environmental Quality

Application of AFINCH as a tool for evaluating the effects of streamflow-gaging-network size and composition on the accuracy and precision of streamflow estimates at ungaged locations in the southeast Lake Michigan hydrologic subregion

Bootstrapping techniques employing random subsampling were used with the AFINCH (Analysis of Flows In Networks of CHannels) model to gain insights into the effects of variation in streamflow-gaging-network size and composition on the accuracy and precision of streamflow estimates at ungaged locations in the 0405 (Southeast Lake Michigan) hydrologic subregion. AFINCH uses stepwise-regression techniques to estimate monthly water yields from catchments based on geospatial-climate and land-cover data in combination with available streamflow and water-use data. Calculations are performed on a hydrologic-subregion scale for each catchment and stream reach contained in a National Hydrography Dataset Plus (NHDPlus) subregion. Water yields from contributing catchments are multiplied by catchment areas and resulting flow values are accumulated to compute streamflows in stream reaches which are referred to as flow lines. AFINCH imposes constraints on water yields to ensure that observed streamflows are conserved at gaged locations. Data from the 0405 hydrologic subregion (referred to as Southeast Lake Michigan) were used for the analyses. Daily streamflow data were measured in the subregion for 1 or more years at a total of 75 streamflow-gaging stations during the analysis period which spanned water years 1971–2003. The number of streamflow gages in operation each year during the analysis period ranged from 42 to 56 and averaged 47. Six sets (one set for each censoring level), each composed of 30 random subsets of the 75 streamflow gages, were created by censoring (removing) approximately 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, and 75 percent of the streamflow gages (the actual percentage of operating streamflow gages censored for each set varied from year to year, and within the year from subset to subset, but averaged approximately the indicated percentages). Streamflow estimates for six flow lines each were aggregated by censoring level, and results were analyzed to assess (a) how the size and composition of the streamflow-gaging network affected the average apparent errors and variability of the estimated flows and (b) whether results for certain months were more variable than for others. The six flow lines were categorized into one of three types depending upon their network topology and position relative to operating streamflow-gaging stations. Statistical analysis of the model results indicates that (1) less precise (that is, more variable) estimates resulted from smaller streamflow-gaging networks as compared to larger streamflow-gaging networks, (2) precision of AFINCH flow estimates at an ungaged flow line is improved by operation of one or more streamflow gages upstream and (or) downstream in the enclosing basin, (3) no consistent seasonal trend in estimate variability was evident, and (4) flow lines from ungaged basins appeared to exhibit the smallest absolute apparent percent errors (APEs) and smallest changes in average APE as a function of increasing censoring level. The counterintuitive results described in item (4) above likely reflect both the nature of the base-streamflow estimate from which the errors were computed and insensitivity in the average model-derived estimates to changes in the streamflow-gaging-network size and composition. Another analysis demonstrated that errors for flow lines in ungaged basins have the potential to be much larger than indicated by their APEs if measured relative to their true (but unknown) flows. “Missing gage” analyses, based on examination of censoring subset results where the streamflow gage of interest was omitted from the calibration data set, were done to better understand the true error characteristics for ungaged flow lines as a function of network size. Results examined for 2 water years indicated that the probability of computing a monthly streamflow estimate within 10 percent of the true value with AFINCH decreased from greater than 0.9 at about a 10-percent network-censoring level to less than 0.6 as the censoring level approached 75 percent. In addition, estimates for typically dry months tended to be characterized by larger percent errors than typically wetter months.

Indiana, Michigan

Calibration of a field-scale Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model with field placement of best management practices in Alger Creek, Michigan

Subwatersheds within the Great Lakes “Priority Watersheds” were targeted by the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative (GLRI) to determine the effectiveness of the various best management practices (BMPs) from the U.S. Department of Agriculture-Natural Resources Conservation Service National Conservation Planning (NCP) Database. A Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is created for Alger Creek, a 50 km 2 tributary watershed to the Saginaw River in Michigan. Monthly calibration yielded very good Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) ratings for flow, sediment, total phosphorus (TP), dissolved reactive phosphorus (DRP), and total nitrogen (TN) (0.90, 0.79, 0.87, 0.88, and 0.77, respectively), and satisfactory NSE rating for nitrate (0.51). Two-year validation results in at least satisfactory NSE ratings for flow, sediment, TP, DRP, and TN (0.83, 0.54, 0.73, 0.53, and 0.60, respectively), and unsatisfactory NSE rating for nitrate (0.28). The model estimates the effect of BMPs at the field and watershed scales. At the field-scale, the most effective single practice at reducing sediment, TP, and DRP is no-tillage followed by cover crops (CC); CC are the most effective single practice at reducing nitrate. The most effective BMP combinations include filter strips, which can have a sizable effect on reducing sediment and phosphorus loads. At the watershed scale, model results indicate current NCP BMPs result in minimal sediment and nutrient reductions (<10%).

Michigan

Introduction and methods of analysis for peak streamflow trends and their relation to changes in climate in Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin

Flood-frequency analysis, also called peak-flow frequency or flood-flow frequency analysis, is essential to water resources management applications including critical structure design and floodplain mapping. Federal guidelines for doing flood-frequency analyses are presented in a U.S. Geological Survey Techniques and Methods Report known as Bulletin 17C. A basic assumption within Bulletin 17C is that for drainage basins without major hydrologic alterations, statistical properties of the distribution of annual peak streamflows (peak flows) are stationary; that is, the mean, variance, and skew are constant. The stationarity assumption has been widely accepted within the flood-frequency community; however, a better understanding of long-term climatic persistence and concerns about potential climate change and land-use change has caused a reexamination of the stationarity assumption. Flood-frequency analyses that do not incorporate observed trends and abrupt changes may result in a poor representation of the true flood risk. Bulletin 17C does not offer guidance for incorporating nonstationarities when estimating floods, and it describes a need for studies that incorporate changing climate or basin characteristics. In response to this need and a history of concern regarding nonstationarity peak flows in the region, this study was done by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Departments of Transportation of Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, South Dakota, and Wisconsin; the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation; and the North Dakota Department of Water Resources, to assess potential nonstationarity in peak flows in the north-central United States. This chapter summarizes the methods used to detect hydroclimatic changes in peak-flow data in the study region. A wide range of analyses and statistical approaches are applied to document the primary mechanisms controlling floods and characterize temporal changes in hydroclimatic variables and peak flow. Four periods were selected for analysis of peak flow, daily streamflow, and climate data. The periods are (1) a 100-year period, 1921–2020; (2) a 75-year period, 1946–2020; (3) a 50-year period, 1971–2020; and (4) a 30-year period, 1991–2020. The climate data consist of monthly time series estimates of temperature, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, snowfall, soil moisture storage, snow water equivalent, and runoff on a 3.1-mile by 3.1-mile grid for the conterminous United States. Statistical and graphical analyses were used to investigate potential changes in hydrology and climate. The starting point for these analyses was the initial data analysis of peak flow described in Bulletin 17C, which includes plotting the peak flow and checking for autocorrelation, monotonic trends, and changes points. Analyses were added to examine additional features in the data. To examine potential causal drivers of changes, the climate data were analyzed graphically and statistically. Results are provided in a U.S. Geological Survey data release. The study limitations are documented for users of the results.

Iowa, Illinois, Michigan, Missouri, Minnesota, Mon

Peak streamflow trends in South Dakota and their relation to changes in climate, water years 1921–2020

Peak-flow (flood) frequency analysis is essential to water-resources management applications, including the design of critical infrastructure such as bridges and culverts, and floodplain mapping. Federal guidelines for performing peak-flow flood frequency analyses are presented in a U.S. Geological Survey Techniques and Methods Report known as Bulletin 17C. A basic assumption within Bulletin 17C, which documents the guidelines for determining annual peak streamflow frequency, is that, for basins without major hydrologic alterations (for example, regulation, diversion, and urbanization), statistical properties of the distribution of annual peak streamflows are stationary; that is, the mean, variance, and skew are constant through time. Nonstationarity is a statistical property of a peak-flow series such that the long-term (on the order of decades) distributional properties change one or more times either gradually or abruptly through time. Individual nonstationarities may be attributed to one source such as flow regulation, land-use change, or climate but are often the result of a combination of sources, making detection and attribution of nonstationarities challenging. In response to a growing concern regarding nonstationarity in peak streamflows in the region, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Departments of Transportation of Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, South Dakota, and Wisconsin; the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation; and the North Dakota Department of Water Resources, assessed the potential nonstationarity in peak streamflows in the north-central United States. This chapter characterizes the effects of natural hydroclimatic shifts and potential climate change on annual peak streamflows in the State of South Dakota. Annual peak and daily streamflow as well as model-simulated gridded climatic data were examined for temporal monotonic trends, change points, and other statistical properties indicative of changing climatic and environmental conditions. Changes in annual peak and daily flows were evaluated among 13, 35, and 81 qualifying U.S. Geological Survey streamgages for the 75-, 50-, and 30-year trend periods through water year 2020 (the period from October 1, 2019, to September 30, 2020) in South Dakota, respectively. No qualifying streamgages were in the 100-year trend period in the State. Statistical tests for autocorrelation (independent and identically distributed assumption), monotonic trends, and change points in the median and scale are analyzed to evaluate potential stationarity violations (nonstationarity) for performing at-site peak-flow flood-frequency analysis. The trends are reported using a likelihood approach as an alternative to simply reporting significant trends with an arbitrary p -value cutoff point. A distinct east-west spatial pattern of likely upward and downward monotonic trends and change points, respectively, was detected in 75- and 50-year trend periods, but an inconsistent spatial pattern was detected in the 30-year trend period. Additionally, change points in the median annual peak streamflows were detected in the late 1970s and early 1980s in the western part of the State, but in the east, the change point was more commonly detected in 1992–93. A similar east-west spatial pattern of likely upward and downward trends was detected in the annual peak-flow timing, the day of the year of the annal peak streamflow. In the western part of the State, the annual peak streamflows are arriving earlier, but in the east, the annual peak streamflows are arriving later. A peaks-over-threshold (POT) analysis where, on average, there are two events per year (POT2) and four events per year (POT4) was also used to evaluate changes in the frequency (count) of daily streamflows exceeding the threshold. Similar to detected changes in the annual peak streamflow, an east-west likely upward or downward change corresponding to an increase or decrease, respectively, in the frequency of daily streamflow greater than a POT2 and POT4 threshold was detected. A monthly water-balance model was used to evaluate hydroclimatic variation in annual and seasonal precipitation, snowfall, potential evapotranspiration, and soil moisture storage for all qualifying streamgages in the 75-, 50-, and 30-year trend periods. Detected trends in the annual hydroclimatic metrics for the 75- and 50-year trend periods indicate a spatially consistent statewide increase in precipitation, decrease in snowfall, increase in potential evapotranspiration, and increase in soil moisture storage. Furthermore, detected trends in seasonal precipitation in the 75- and 50-year trend periods highlight a pronounced change in precipitation in winter and later into the summer season, especially in the 50-year trend period in the eastern part of the State. Statewide increases in seasonal soil moisture storage were also detected, highlighting year-round increasing flood magnitudes, particularly in the eastern part of the State. Based on the results of these stationarity tests for the qualifying streamgages in South Dakota among the 75-, 50-, and 30-year trend periods, consistent temporal and spatial patterns of nonstationarity were detected among the 75- and 50-year trend periods. Furthermore, when nonstationarity is detected in daily streamflow, increased streamflow and volume (increasing frequency in POT), as well as potentially bridge scour, may have implications on culvert and highway design in the eastern part of South Dakota. Thus, when performing at-site peak-flow flood-frequency analyses in South Dakota, potential nonstationarities and alternative approaches are important considerations.

South Dakota

Evaluating the importance of abiotic and biotic drivers on Bythotrephes biomass in Lakes Superior and Michigan

The ability of planktivorous fishes to exert top-down control on Bythotrephes potentially has far-reaching impacts on aquatic food-webs, given previously described effects of Bythotrephes on zooplankton communities. We estimated consumption of Bythotrephes by planktivorous and benthivorous fishes, using bioenergetics and daily ration models at nearshore (18 m), intermediate (46 m), and offshore (110 m) depths along one western Lake Superior transect (April, and September-November) and two northern Lake Michigan transects (April, July, September). In Lake Superior, consumption (primarily by cisco Coregonus artedi) exceeded Bythotrephes production at all offshore sites in September-November (up to 396% of production consumed) and at the intermediate site in November (842%) with no evidence of consumption nearshore. By comparing Bythotrephes biomass following months of excessive consumption, we conservatively concluded that top-down control was evident only at the offshore site during September-October. In Lake Michigan, consumption by fishes (primarily alewife Alosa pseudoharengus) exceeded production at nearshore sites (up to 178%), but not in deeper sites (< 15%). Evidence for top-down control in the nearshore was not supported, however, as Bythotrephes never subsequently declined. Using generalized additive models, temperature, and not fish consumption, not zooplankton prey density, best explained variability in Bythotrephes biomass. The non-linear pattern revealed Bythotrephes to increase with temperature up to 16 &deg;C, and then decline between 16 and 23 &deg;C. We discuss how temperature likely has direct negative impacts on Bythotrephes when temperatures near 23 &deg;C, but speculate that predation also contributes to declining biomass when temperatures exceed 16 &deg;C.

Wisconsin and Michigan

Range-wide population genomic structure of the Karner blue butterfly, Plebejus (Lycaeides) samuelis

The Karner blue butterfly, Plebejus ( Lycaeides ) samuelis , is an endangered North American climate change-vulnerable species that has undergone substantial historical habitat loss and population decline. To better understand the species' genetic status and support Karner blue conservation, we sampled 116 individuals from 22 localities across the species' geographical range in Wisconsin (WI), Michigan (MI), Indiana (IN), and New York (NY). Using genomic analysis, we found that these samples were divided into three major geographic groups, NY, WI, and MI-IN, with populations in WI and MI-IN each further divided into three subgroups. A high level of inbreeding was revealed by inbreeding coefficients above 10% in almost all populations in our study. However, strong correlation between F ST and geographical distance suggested that genetic divergence between populations increases with distance, such that introducing individuals from more distant populations may be a useful strategy for increasing population-level diversity and preserving the species. We also found that Karner blue populations had lower genetic diversity than closely related species and had more alleles that were present only at low frequencies (<5%) in other species. Some of these alleles may negatively impact individual fitness and may have become prevalent in Karner blue populations due to inbreeding. Finally, analysis of these possibly deleterious alleles in the context of predicted three-dimensional structures of proteins revealed potential molecular mechanisms behind population declines, providing insights for conservation. This rich new range-wide understanding of the species' population genomic structure can contextualize past extirpations and help conserve and even enhance Karner blue genetic diversity.

Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin