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At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

BatTool: Projecting bat populations facing multiple stressors using a demographic model

Bats provide ecologically and agriculturally important ecosystem services but are currently experiencing population declines caused by multiple environmental stressors, including mortality from white-nose syndrome and wind energy development. Analyses of the current and future health and viability of these species may support conservation management decision making. Demographic modeling provides a quantitative tool for decision makers and conservation managers to make more informed decisions, but widespread adoption of these tools can be limited because of the complexity of the mathematical, statistical, and computational components involved in implementing these models. In this work, we provide an exposition of the BatTool R package, detailing the primary components of the matrix projection model, a publicly accessible graphical user interface ( https://rconnect.usgs.gov/battool ) facilitating user-defined scenario analyses, and its intended uses and limitations (Wiens et al., US Geol Surv Data Release 2022; Wiens et al., US Geol Surv Softw Release 2022). We present a case study involving wind energy permitting, weighing the effects of potential mortality caused by a hypothetical wind energy facility on the projected abundance of four imperiled bat species in the Midwestern United States.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution↗

A final report on computed magneto-telluric curves for hypothetical models of crustal structure

Several mathematical models were investigated to determine the capa-bilities of the magneto-telluric method for determining the resistivity structure of the earth's crust. The model parameters were based on the crust model proposed by Keller (1963). The mathematical technique used was developed by Cagniard (1953). The investigations indicate that a three-layer model approximation of the crust and mantle is the most detailed model warranted in inter-preting the information provided by the magneto-telluric method about the lower crust. Only the thickness of the lower crust can be determined, and not the resistivity.

Crustal Studies Technical Letters↗

A frictional population model of seismicity rate change

We study models of seismicity rate changes caused by the application of a static stress perturbation to a population of faults and discuss our results with respect to the model proposed by Dieterich (1994). These models assume distribution of nucleation sites (e.g., faults) obeying rate-state frictional relations that fail at constant rate under tectonic loading alone, and predicts a positive static stress step at time to will cause an immediate increased seismicity rate that decays according to Omori's law. We show one way in which the Dieterich model may be constructed from simple general idead, illustratted using numerically computed synthetic seismicity and mathematical formulation. We show that seismicity rate change predicted by these models (1) depend on the particular relationship between the clock-advanced failure and fault maturity, (2) are largest for the faults closest to failure at to, (3) depend strongly on which state evolution law faults obey, and (4) are insensitive to some types of population hetrogeneity. We also find that if individual faults fail repeatedly and populations are finite, at timescales much longer than typical aftershock durations, quiescence follows at seismicity rate increase regardless of the specific frictional relations. For the examined models the quiescence duration is comparable to the ratio of stress change to stressing rate ????/??,which occurs after a time comparable to the average recurrence interval of the individual faults in the population and repeats in the absence of any new load may pertubations; this simple model may partly explain observations of repeated clustering of earthquakes. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

Techniques for assessing water resource potentials in the developing countries: with emphasis on streamflow, erosion and sediment transport, water movement in unsaturated soils, ground water, and remote sensing in hydrologic applications

Hydrologic instrumentation and methodology for assessing water-resource potentials have originated largely in the developed countries of the temperature zone. The developing countries lie largely in the tropic zone, which contains the full gamut of the earth's climatic environments, including most of those of the temperate zone. For this reason, most hydrologic techniques have world-wide applicability. Techniques for assessing water-resource potentials for the high priority goals of economic growth are well established in the developing countries--but much more are well established in the developing countries--but much more so in some than in other. Conventional techniques for measurement and evaluation of basic hydrologic parameters are now well-understood in the developing countries and are generally adequate for their current needs and those of the immediate future. Institutional and economic constraints, however, inhibit growth of sustained programs of hydrologic data collection and application of the data to problems in engineering technology. Computer-based technology, including processing of hydrologic data and mathematical modelling of hydrologic parameters i also well-begun in many developing countries and has much wider potential application. In some developing counties, however, there is a tendency to look on the computer as a panacea for deficiencies in basic hydrologic data collection programs. This fallacy must be discouraged, as the computer is a tool and not a "magic box." There is no real substitute for sound programs of basic data collection. Nuclear and isotopic techniques are being used increasingly in the developed countries in the measurement and evaluation of virtually all hydrologic parameter in which conventional techniques have been used traditionally. Even in the developed countries, however, many hydrologists are not using nuclear techniques, simply because they lack knowledge of the principles involved and of the potential benefits. Nuclear methodology in hydrologic applications is generally more complex than the conventional and hence requires a high level of technical expertise for effective use. Application of nuclear techniques to hydrologic problems in the developing countries is likely to be marginal for some years to come, owing to the higher costs involved and expertise required. Nuclear techniques, however, would seem to have particular promise in studies of water movement in unsaturated soils and of erosion and sedimentation where conventional techniques are inadequate, inefficient and in some cases costly. Remote sensing offers great promise for synoptic evaluations of water resources and hydrologic processes, including the transient phenomena of the hydrologic cycle. Remote sensing is not, however, a panacea for deficiencies in hydrologic data programs in the developing countries. Rather it is a means for extending and augmenting on-the-ground observations ans surveys (ground truth) to evaluated water resources and hydrologic processes on a regionall or even continental scale. With respect to economic growth goals in developing countries, there are few identifiable gaps in existing hydrologic instrumentation and methodology insofar as appraisal, development and management of available water resources are concerned. What is needed is acceleration of institutional development and professional motivation toward more effective use of existing and proven methodology. Moreover, much sophisticated methodology can be applied effectively in the developing countries only when adequate levels of indigenous scientific skills have been reached and supportive institutional frameworks are evolved to viability.

Open-File Report↗

Calculation of nonlinear confidence and prediction intervals for ground-water flow models

A method is derived to efficiently compute nonlinear confidence and prediction intervals on any function of parameters derived as output from a mathematical model of a physical system. The method is applied to the problem of obtaining confidence and prediction intervals for manually-calibrated ground-water flow models. To obtain confidence and prediction intervals resulting from uncertainties in parameters, the calibrated model and information on extreme ranges and ordering of the model parameters within one or more independent groups are required. If random errors in the dependent variable are present in addition to uncertainties in parameters, then calculation of prediction intervals also requires information on the extreme range of error expected. A simple Monte Carlo method is used to compute the quantiles necessary to establish probability levels for the confidence and prediction intervals. Application of the method to a hypothetical example showed that inclusion of random errors in the dependent variable in addition to uncertainties in parameters can considerably widen the prediction intervals.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗

Geomorphometry-Diversity in quantitative surface analysis

A widening variety of applications is diversifying geomorphometry ( digital terrain modelling ), the quantitative study of topography. An amalgam of earth science, mathematics, engineering and computer science, the discipline has been revolutionized by the computer manipulation of gridded terrain heights, or digital elevation models (DEMs). Its rapid expansion continues. This article reviews the remarkable diversity of recent morphometric work in 15 selected topics and discusses their significance and prospects. The quantitative analysis of industrial microsurface topography is introduced to the earth science community. The 14 other topics are Internet access to geomorphometry; global DEMs; DEM modelling of channel networks; self-organized criticality; fractal and wavelet analysis; soil resources; landslide hazards; barchan dunes; harvesting wind energy; sea-ice surfaces; sea-floor abyssal hills; Japanese work in morphometry; and the emerging fields of landscape ecology and image understanding. Closing remarks note reasons for the diversity within geomorphometry, speculate on future trends and recommend creating a unified field of surface representation.

Progress in Physical Geography: Earth and Environm↗

Predicting paleoclimate from compositional data using multivariate Gaussian process inverse prediction

Multivariate compositional count data arise in many applications including ecology, microbiology, genetics and paleoclimate. A frequent question in the analysis of multivariate compositional count data is what underlying values of a covariate(s) give rise to the observed composition. Learning the relationship between covariates and the compositional count allows for inverse prediction of unobserved covariates given compositional count observations. Gaussian processes provide a flexible framework for modeling functional responses with respect to a covariate without assuming a functional form. Many scientific disciplines use Gaussian process approximations to improve prediction and make inference on latent processes and parameters. When prediction is desired on unobserved covariates given realizations of the response variable, this is called inverse prediction. Because inverse prediction is often mathematically and computationally challenging, predicting unobserved covariates often requires fitting models that are different from the hypothesized generative model. We present a novel computational framework that allows for efficient inverse prediction using a Gaussian process approximation to generative models. Our framework enables scientific learning about how the latent processes co-vary with respect to covariates while simultaneously providing predictions of missing covariates. The proposed framework is capable of efficiently exploring the high dimensional, multi-modal latent spaces that arise in the inverse problem. To demonstrate flexibility, we apply our method in a generalized linear model framework to predict latent climate states given multivariate count data. Based on cross-validation, our model has predictive skill competitive with current methods while simultaneously providing formal, statistical inference on the underlying community dynamics of the biological system previously not available.

Annals of Applied Statistics↗

A modular three-dimensional finite-difference ground-water flow model

This report presents a finite-difference model and its associated modular computer program. The model simulates flow in three dimensions. The report includes detailed explanations of physical and mathematical concepts on which the model is based and an explanation of how those concepts were incorporated in the modular structure of the computer program. The modular structure consists of a Main Program and a series of highly independent subroutines called 'modules.' The modules are grouped into 'packages.' Each package deals with a specific feature of the hydrologic system which is to be simulated, such as flow from rivers or flow into drains, or with a specific method of solving linear equations which describe the flow system, such as the Strongly Implicit Procedure or Slice-Successive Overrelaxation. The division of the program into modules permits the user to examine specific hydrologic features of the model independently. This also facilitates development of additional capabilities because new modules or packages can be added to the program without modifying the existing modules or packages. The input and output systems of the computer program are also designed to permit maximum flexibility. Ground-water flow within the aquifer is simulated using a block-centered finite-difference approach. Layers can be simulated as confined, unconfined, or a combination of confined and unconfined. Flow from external stresses, such as flow to wells, areal recharge, evapotranspiration, flow to drains, and flow through riverbeds, can also be simulated. The finite-difference equations can be solved using either the Strongly Implicit Procedure or Slice-Successive Overrelaxation. The program is written in FORTRAN '66 and will run without modification on most computers which have a FORTRAN '66 compiler. It will also run, without modification, with most extended FORTRAN '77 compilers and with minor modifications on standard FORTRAN '77 compilers. Documentation presented in this report includes a narrative description, a flow chart, a list of variables, and a program listing for each module.

Open-File Report↗

A modular three-dimensional finite-difference ground-water flow model

This report presents a finite-difference model and its associated modular computer program. The model simulates flow in three dimensions. The report includes detailed explanations of physical and mathematical concepts on which the model is based and an explanation of how those concepts are incorporated in the modular structure of the computer program. The modular structure consists of a Main Program and a series of highly independent subroutines called 'modules.' The modules are grouped into 'packages.' Each package deals with a specific feature of the hydrologic system which is to be simulated, such as flow from rivers or flow into drains, or with a specific method of solving linear equations which describe the flow system, such as the Strongly Implicit Procedure or Slice-Successive Overrelaxation. The division of the program into modules permits the user to examine specific hydrologic features of the model independently. This also facilita development of additional capabilities because new packages can be added to the program without modifying the existing packages. The input and output systems of the computer program are also designed to permit maximum flexibility. Ground-water flow within the aquifer is simulated using a block-centered finite-difference approach. Layers can be simulated as confined, unconfined, or a combination of confined and unconfined. Flow associated with external stresses, such as wells, areal recharge, evapotranspiration, drains, and streams, can also be simulated. The finite-difference equations can be solved using either the Strongly Implicit Procedure or Slice-Successive Overrelaxation. The program is written in FORTRAN 77 and will run without modification on most computers that have a FORTRAN 77 compiler. For each program ,module, this report includes a narrative description, a flow chart, a list of variables, and a module listing.

Techniques of Water-Resources Investigations↗

A modular three-dimensional finite-difference fround-water flow model

This report presents a finite-difference model and its associated modular computer program. The model simulates flow in three dimensions. The report includes detailed explanations of physical and mathematical concepts on which the model is based and an explanation of how those concepts are incorporated in the modular structure of the computer program. The modular structure consists of a Main Program and a series of highly independent subroutines called 'modules.' The modules are grouped into 'packages.' Each package deals with a specific feature of the hydrologic system which is to be simulated, such as flow from rivers or flow into drains, or with a specific method of solving linear equations which describe the flow system, such as the Strongly Implicit Procedure or Slice-Successive Overrelaxation. The division of the program into modules permits the user to examine specific hydrologic features of the model independently. This also facilita development of additional capabilities because new packages can be added to the program without modifying the existing packages. The input and output systems of the computer program are also designed to permit maximum flexibility. Ground-water flow within the aquifer is simulated using a block-centered finite-difference approach. Layers can be simulated as confined, unconfined, or a combination of confined and unconfined. Flow associated with external stresses, such as wells, areal recharge, evapotranspiration, drains, and streams, can also be simulated. The finite-difference equations can be solved using either the Strongly Implicit Procedure or Slice-Successive Overrelaxation. The program is written in FORTRAN 77 and will run without modification on most computers that have a FORTRAN 77 compiler. For each program ,module, this report includes a narrative description, a flow chart, a list of variables, and a module listing.

Techniques of Water-Resources Investigations↗

Mathematical model of gamma-ray spectrometry borehole logging for quantitative analysis

A technique for analyzing gamma-ray spectral-logging data has been developed, in which a digital computer is used to calculate the effects of gamma-ray attentuation in a borehole environment. The computer model allows for the calculation of the effects of lithology, porosity, density, and the thickness of a horizontal layer of uniformly distributed radioactive material surrounding a centralized probe in a cylindrical borehole. The computer program also contains parameters for the calculation of the effects of well casing, drilling fluid, probe housing, and losses through the sodium-iodide crystal. Errors associated with the commonly used mathematical assumption of a point detector are eliminated in this model. (USGS)

Open-File Report↗

Mass-conserving method of characteristics for streamflow modeling

A robust numerical model is presented for the computation of unsteady streamflow on steep river slopes. The one-dimensional model uses the method of characteristics on a specified space-time grid to solve the Saint-Venant equations. An additional continuity equation requirement on each space-time element provides greatly improved conservation of mass over traditional implementations of the method of characteristics on a fixed grid. The space-time geometry of the problem is described in a finite element setting. Hermite interpolation of channel parameters is used to avoid numerical difficulties that may occur with steep slopes due to discontinuities in the derivatives of data such as channel top width. Manning's equation for friction slope can be modified by a factor to make the slope more appropriate for steep rivers. The standard Manning's friction slope can also be used, if preferred. The computer model is not restricted to steep slopes, and applies as well to gently sloping streams. Two numerical examples support the mathematical approach and computational algorithm. (USGS)

Open-File Report↗

Mass-conserving method of characteristics for streamflow modeling

A robust numerical model is presented for the computation of unsteady streamflow on steep river slopes. The one-dimensional model uses the method of characteristics on a specified space-time grid to solve the Saint-Venant equations. An additional continuity equation requirement on each space-time element provides greatly improved conservation of mass over traditional implementations of the method of characteristics on a fixed grid. The space-time geometry of the problem is described in a finite element setting. Hermite interpolation of channel parameters is used to avoid numerical difficulties that may occur with steep slopes due to discontinuities in the derivatives of data such as channel top width. Manning's equation for friction slope can be modified by a factor to make the slope more appropriate for steep rivers. The standard Manning's friction slope can also be used, if preferred. The computer model is not restricted to steep slopes, and applies as well to gently sloping streams. Two numerical examples support the mathematical approach and computational algorithm.

Water Supply Paper↗

Thermal maturity of the Anadarko Basin

Levels of thermal maturity are estimated for Paleozoic strata in five areas of the central Anadarko basin for times between the Paleozoic and the present, and depths of the oil window are plotted as a function of geologic time. Mean surface temperature assumed here for calculating Lopatin's time-temperature index of thermal maturity (TTl) in the central Anadarko basin declines from 80°F (27°C) to 60°F (16°C) from early Paleozoic time to the present. Shallow-water carbonates and lower paleolatitudes suggest warmer climates in the Paleozoic for this area. The geothermal gradient is assumed to equal 4.0°F/100 ft (7.3°C/100 m) in the Late Cambrian and to decay over a 100-m.y. period to the present regional gradient of 1.3°F/100 ft (2.4°C/100 m). Initial basin formation was caused by crustal thinning. Accumulation of thick Pennsylvanian sediments in a foreland-style basin dominated by vertical lithospheric flexure represents a second major period of subsidence. An elevated geothermal gradient during this time is not assumed for TTl calculations, because mathematical models suggest time-invariant heat flows in such basins. TTl computations based on these assumptions indicate that oil could have been generated in the ancestral Anadarko basin >350 m.y. ago. By the end of the Pennsylvanian, significant volumes of kerogen were in the oil window (and perhaps beyond), and significant volumes have remained in the oil window up to the present day. These circumstances may partially explain the unusual richness of the Anadarko basin as a Paleozoic hydrocarbon province.

Oklahoma↗

Mathematical ground-water model of Indian Wells Valley, California

A mathematical model of the Indian Wells Valley ground-water basin was developed and verified. The alternating-direction implicit method was used to compute the mathematical solution. It was assumed that there are only two aquifers in the valley, one being deep and the other shallow. Where the shallow aquifer occurs, the underlying deep aquifer is confined or artesian. Flow between the aquifers under steady-state conditions is assumed to be in one direction, from deep to shallow. The transmissivity of the deep aquifer ranges from about 250,000 to 22,000 gallons per day per foot and from about 25,000 to 5,000 gallons per day per foot for the shallow aquifer. The storage coefficient for the deep aquifer ranges from 1 x 10 -4 to 0.20. Steady-state recharge and discharge in each aquifer was estimated to be 9,850 acre-feet per year. Ground-water pumping, sewage-effluent recharge, and capture of ground-water discharge occurred under non-steady-state conditions. Most of the ground-water pumpage is near Ridgecrest and Inyokern and in the area between the two towns. By 1968 pumpage in the deep aquifer had caused a reversal in the ground-water gradient south of China Lake and small water-level declines over most of the aquifer. The model for the deep aquifer was verified under steady-state and non-steady-state conditions. The shallow aquifer was verified under steady-state conditions only. The verified model was then used to generate 1983 water-level conditions in the deep aquifer.

Open-File Report↗

The hydrodynamics of the Big Horn basin: A study of the role of faults

A three-dimensional mathematical model simulates virgin groundwater flow in the Big Horn basin, Wyoming. The computed results are compared to two published interpretations of the Tensleep Sandstone virgin potentiometric surface; both of these interpretations, Bredehoeft and Bennett, and Haun, were made from the same data set. The published maps are quite different. Bredehoeft and Bennett ignored the faults; Haun treated the faults as horizontal barriers to flow. The hydraulic head at depth over much of the Big Horn basin is near the land surface elevation, a condition usually defined as hydrostatic. This condition indicates a high, regional-scale, vertical conductivity for the sediments in the basin. Our hypothesis to explain the high conductivity is that the faults act as vertical conduits for fluid flow. These same faults can act as either horizontal barriers to flow or nonbarriers, depending upon whether the fault zones are more permeable or less permeable than the adjoining aquifers. A three-dimensional simulation of fluid flow in the basin indicates that either of the potentiometric interpretations, that of Bredehoeft and Bennett or that of Haun, can be reproduced. The results depend upon whether the fault zones are lateral barriers to flow. In the case where the faults are lateral barriers, the basin is broken into compartments with much of the areal head loss occurring across the fault zones.

Montana, Wyoming↗

The value of long-term monitoring in the development of ground-water-flow models

As environmental issues have come to the forefront of public concern, so has the awareness of the importance of ground water in the overall water cycle and as a source of the Nation’s drinking water. Heightened interest has spawned a host of scientific enterprises (Taylor and Alley, 2001). Some activities are directed toward collection of water-level data and related information to monitor the physical and chemical state of the resource. Other activities are directed at interpretive studies undertaken, for example, to optimize the location of new water-supply wells or to protect rivers and lakes fed by ground water. An important type of interpretive study is the computer ground-water-flow model that inte- grates field data in a mathematical framework. Long-term, systematic collection of hydro- logic data is crucial to the construction and testing of ground-water models so that they can reproduce the evolution of flow systems and forecast future conditions.

Wisconsin↗

Interactive inversion of dipole loop-loop electromagnetic data for layered earth models using numerical integration and complex image theory (version 1.0)

This report is provided as a reference guide to define the basic graphical user interface (GUI) responses needed to perform interactive forward or inverse modeling of dipole loop-loop electromagnetic (EM) data using an IBM compatible personal computer (PC). The underlying model used is a one-dimensional (1-D) horizontal layered earth with parameters being the layer resistivities and thicknesses below the earth's surface. Mathematical details of the layered earth modeling are summarized below and in Appendix 1 that describes two general methods: numerical integration and complex image theory to compute forward or inverse sounding curves in the frequency-domain. Any combination of 5-different dipole loop-loop geometries can be selected in the modeling. The program in this report is named INVDP (for INVersion of DiPole data).

Open-File Report↗