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USGS1996

Key sources of uncertainty in QUAL2E model of passaic river

Application of stream water-quality models in decision making has been hampered by a lack of data appropriate for minimization of model-simulation uncertainty. A method for determining data needed to reduce model-prediction uncertainty is illustrated in this paper. First-order reliability analysis is applied to determine (1) the model parameters that significantly affect model-prediction uncertainty; and (2) the constituents for which model-prediction uncertainty is unacceptable. Additional data are required to reduce uncertainty in the parameters that significantly affect constituents with high prediction uncertainty and consequently in model prediction. The method is demonstrated for multiconstituent water-quality modeling on the Passaic River in New Jersey applying QUAL2E. The model-prediction uncertainty of dissolved oxygen, biochemical oxygen demand, ammonia, and chlorphyll a is considered. For this example, only the reaeration rate and the algal maximum-specific-growth rate contribute significant uncertainty to model prediction. The effect of reducing the uncertainty in the reaeration rate and algal maximum-specific-growth rate on the uncertainty on predicted dissolved oxygen and chlorphyll a , respectively, is demonstrated.

Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management↗

USGS2003

Support of total maximum daily load programs using spatially referenced regression models

The spatially referenced regressions on watershed attributes modeling approach, as applied to predictions of total nitrogen flux in three North Carolina river basins, addresses several information needs identified by a National Research Council evaluation of the total maximum daily load program. The model provides reach-level predictions of the probability of exceeding water-quality criteria, and estimates of total nitrogen budgets. Model estimates of point- and diffuse-source contributions and nitrogen loss rates in streams and reservoirs compared moderately well with literature estimates. Maps of reach-level predictions of nutrient inputs and delivery provide an intuitive and spatially detailed summary of the origins and fate of nutrients within a basin.

Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management↗

USGS2007

Simulation of Intra- or transboundary surface-water-rights hierarchies using the farm process for MODFLOW-2000

Water-rights driven surface-water allocations for irrigated agriculture can be simulated using the farm process for MODFLOW-2000. This paper describes and develops a model, which simulates routed surface-water deliveries to farms limited by streamflow, equal-appropriation allotments, or a ranked prior-appropriation system. Simulated diversions account for deliveries to all farms along a canal according to their water-rights ranking and for conveyance losses and gains. Simulated minimum streamflow requirements on diversions help guarantee supplies to senior farms located on downstream diverting canals. Prior appropriation can be applied to individual farms or to groups of farms modeled as “virtual farms” representing irrigation districts, irrigated regions in transboundary settings, or natural vegetation habitats. The integrated approach of jointly simulating canal diversions, surface-water deliveries subject to water-rights constraints, and groundwater allocations is verified on numerical experiments based on a realistic, but hypothetical, system of ranked virtual farms. Results are discussed in light of transboundary water appropriation and demonstrate the approach’s suitability for simulating effects of water-rights hierarchies represented by international treaties, interstate stream compacts, intrastate water rights, or ecological requirements.

Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management↗

USGS2016

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: Source of cooperation or contention?

This paper discusses the challenges and benefits of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which is under construction and expected to be operational on the Blue Nile River in Ethiopia in a few years. Like many large-scale projects on transboundary rivers, the GERD has been criticized for potentially jeopardizing downstream water security and livelihoods through upstream unilateral decision making. In spite of the contentious nature of the project, the authors argue that this project can provide substantial benefits for regional development. The GERD, like any major river infrastructure project, will undeniably bring about social, environmental, and economic change, and in this unique case has, on balance, the potential to achieve success on all fronts. It must be stressed, however, that strong partnerships between riparian countries are essential. National success is contingent on regional cooperation.

Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management↗

USGS2017

Stochastic programming with a joint chance constraint model for reservoir refill operation considering flood risk

Reservoir refill operation modeling attempts to maximize a set of benefits while minimizing risks. The benefits and risks can be in opposition to each other, such as having enough water for hydropower generation while leaving enough room for flood protection. In addition to multiple objects, the uncertainty of streamflow can make decision making difficult. This paper develops a stochastic optimization model for reservoir refill operation with the objective of maximizing the expected synthesized energy production for a cascade system of hydropower stations while considering flood risk. Streamflow uncertainty is addressed by discretized streamflow scenarios and flood risk is controlled by a joint chance constraint restricting the occurrence probability. With the variability of flood risk level, two advancing refill scenarios for exploring operation benefit are presented. Scenario I loosens the current stagewise storage bounds conditions and allows advancing reservoir refills but keeps the flood risk level the same as the refill policies obtained under the current storage bounds. Scenario II keeps the current storage bounds unchanged but allows increases in flood risk level. The proposed methodology is applied to the Xiluodu cascade system of reservoirs in China and investigates the optimal refill policies obtained by both scenarios. Compared with the benchmark obtained under the current storage bounds and lowest flood risk level, the results show (1) the synthesized energy production can be improved by 2.13% without changing the flood risk level under Scenario I, and (2) the synthesized energy production can also be increased by 0.21% at the expense of increasing the flood risk level by 4.4% when Scenario II is employed. As Scenario I produces higher benefit and lower risk than Scenario II, it is recommended to loosen the current stagewise storage bounds but to keep the flood risk level unchanged during refill operations.

Xiluodu Cascade Reservoir↗

USGS2017

Projecting impacts of climate change on water availability using artificial neural network techniques

Lago Loíza reservoir in east-central Puerto Rico is one of the primary sources of public water supply for the San Juan metropolitan area. To evaluate and predict the Lago Loíza water budget, an artificial neural network (ANN) technique is trained to predict river inflows. A method is developed to combine ANN-predicted daily flows with ANN-predicted 30-day cumulative flows to improve flow estimates. The ANN application trains well for representing 2007–2012 and the drier 1994–1997 periods. Rainfall data downscaled from global circulation model (GCM) simulations are used to predict 2050–2055 conditions. Evapotranspiration is estimated with the Hargreaves equation using minimum and maximum air temperatures from the downscaled GCM data. These simulated 2050–2055 river flows are input to a water budget formulation for the Lago Loíza reservoir for comparison with 2007–2012. The ANN scenarios require far less computational effort than a numerical model application, yet produce results with sufficient accuracy to evaluate and compare hydrologic scenarios. This hydrologic tool will be useful for future evaluations of the Lago Loíza reservoir and water supply to the San Juan metropolitan area.

Puerto Rico↗

USGS2020

The next frontier: Making research more reproducible

Science and engineering rest on the concept of reproducibility. An important question for any study is: are the results reproducible? Can the results be recreated independently by other researchers or professionals? Research results need to be independently reproduced and validated before they are accepted as fact or theory. Across numerous fields like psychology, computer systems, and water resources there are problems to reproduce research results (Aarts et al. 2015; Collberg et al. 2014; Hutton et al. 2016; Stagge et al. 2019; Stodden et al. 2018). This editorial examines the challenges to reproduce research results and suggests community practices to overcome these challenges. Coordination is needed among the authors, journals, funders and institutions that produce, publish, and report research. Making research more reproducible will allow researchers, professionals, and students to more quickly understand and apply research in follow-on efforts and advance the field.

Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management↗

USGS1982

U.S. Geological Survey Federal-State Program

The U.S. Geological Survey Federal-State Cooperative Water Resource Program is a partnership between the Geological Survey and State and local agencies for the collection of the hydrologic information needed for the continuing determination and evaluation of the quantity, quality, and use of the Nation's water resources. The first Cooperative Program was started in 1895; the Congress gave formal recognition to the partnership in 1928 and authorized Federal funding of not more than 50 percent for cooperative programs with the Geological Survey, with total funding over $80 million. The process of project selection in the Cooperative Water Resource Program is a mutual effort in which Geological Survey represents national interests, including the needs of other Federal agencies, and the cooperator represents State and local interests. The result is a balanced program that involves careful evaluation of needs, priorities, and resources. A number of typical examples of projects within the Cooperative Program are presented.

Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management↗

USGS2014

The effects of changing land cover on streamflow simulation in Puerto Rico

This study quantitatively explores whether land cover changes have a substantive impact on simulated streamflow within the tropical island setting of Puerto Rico. The Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) was used to compare streamflow simulations based on five static parameterizations of land cover with those based on dynamically varying parameters derived from four land cover scenes for the period 1953-2012. The PRMS simulations based on static land cover illustrated consistent differences in simulated streamflow across the island. It was determined that the scale of the analysis makes a difference: large regions with localized areas that have undergone dramatic land cover change may show negligible difference in total streamflow, but streamflow simulations using dynamic land cover parameters for a highly altered subwatershed clearly demonstrate the effects of changing land cover on simulated streamflow. Incorporating dynamic parameterization in these highly altered watersheds can reduce the predictive uncertainty in simulations of streamflow using PRMS. Hydrologic models that do not consider the projected changes in land cover may be inadequate for water resource management planning for future conditions.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗

USGS2009

Interbasin flow in the Great Basin with special reference to the southern Funeral Mountains and the source of Furnace Creek springs, Death Valley, California, U.S.

Interbasin flow in the Great Basin has been established by scientific studies during the past century. While not occurring uniformly between all basins, its occurrence is common and is a function of the hydraulic gradient between basins and hydraulic conductivity of the intervening rocks. The Furnace Creek springs in Death Valley, California are an example of large volume springs that are widely accepted as being the discharge points of regional interbasin flow. The flow path has been interpreted historically to be through consolidated Paleozoic carbonate rocks in the southern Funeral Mountains. This work reviews the preponderance of evidence supporting the concept of interbasin flow in the Death Valley region and the Great Basin and addresses the conceptual model of pluvial and recent recharge [Nelson, S.T., Anderson, K., Mayo, A.L., 2004. Testing the interbasin flow hypothesis at Death Valley, California. EOS 85, 349; Anderson, K., Nelson, S., Mayo, A., Tingey, D., 2006. Interbasin flow revisited: the contribution of local recharge to high-discharge springs, Death Valley, California. Journal of Hydrology 323, 276-302] as the source of the Furnace Creek springs. We find that there is insufficient modern recharge and insufficient storage potential and permeability within the basin-fill units in the Furnace Creek basin for these to serve as a local aquifer. Further, the lack of high sulfate content in the spring waters argues against significant flow through basin-fill sediments and instead suggests flow through underlying consolidated carbonate rocks. The maximum temperature of the spring discharge appears to require deep circulation through consolidated rocks; the Tertiary basin fill is of insufficient thickness to generate such temperatures as a result of local fluid circulation. Finally, the stable isotope data and chemical mass balance modeling actually support the interbasin flow conceptual model rather than the alternative presented in Nelson et al. [Nelson, S.T., Anderson, K., Mayo, A.L., 2004. Testing the interbasin flow hypothesis at Death Valley, California. EOS 85, 349] and Anderson et al. [Anderson, K., Nelson, S., Mayo, A., Tingey, D., 2006. Interbasin flow revisited: the contribution of local recharge to high-discharge springs, Death Valley, California. Journal of Hydrology 323, 276-302]. In light of these inconsistencies, interbasin flow is the only readily apparent explanation for the large spring discharges at Furnace Creek and, in our view, is the likely explanation for most large volume, low elevation springs in the Great Basin. An understanding of hydrogeologic processes that control the rate and direction of ground-water flow in eastern and central Nevada is necessary component of regional water-resource planning and management of alluvial and bedrock aquifers.

Journal of Hydrology↗

USGS2014

Trophic state in Voyageurs National Park lakes before and after implementation of a revised water-level management plan

We compiled Secchi depth, total phosphorus, and chlorophyll a (Chla) data from Voyageurs National Park lakes and compared datasets before and after a new water-level management plan was implemented in January 2000. Average Secchi depth transparency improved (from 1.9 to 2.1 m, p = 0.020) between 1977-1999 and 2000-2011 in Kabetogama Lake for August samples only and remained unchanged in Rainy, Namakan, and Sand Point Lakes, and Black Bay in Rainy Lake. Average open-water season Chla concentration decreased in Black Bay (from an average of 13 to 6.0 μg/l, p = 0.001) and Kabetogama Lake (from 9.9 to 6.2 μg/l, p = 0.006) between 1977-1999 and 2000-2011. Trophic state index decreased significantly in Black Bay from 59 to 51 (p = 0.006) and in Kabetogama Lake from 57 to 50 (p = 0.006) between 1977-1999 and 2000-2011. Trophic state indices based on Chla indicated that after 2000, Sand Point, Namakan, and Rainy Lakes remained oligotrophic, whereas eutrophication has decreased in Kabetogama Lake and Black Bay. Although nutrient inputs from inflows and internal sources are still sufficient to produce annual cyanobacterial blooms and may inhibit designated water uses, trophic state has decreased for Kabetogama Lake and Black Bay and there has been no decline in lake ecosystem health since the implementation of the revised water-level management plan.

Minnesota↗

USGS2011

Surface-water nutrient conditions and sources in the United States Pacific Northwest

The SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) model was used to perform an assessment of surface-water nutrient conditions and to identify important nutrient sources in watersheds of the Pacific Northwest region of the United States (U.S.) for the year 2002. Our models included variables representing nutrient sources as well as landscape characteristics that affect nutrient delivery to streams. Annual nutrient yields were higher in watersheds on the wetter, west side of the Cascade Range compared to watersheds on the drier, east side. High nutrient enrichment (relative to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's recommended nutrient criteria) was estimated in watersheds throughout the region. Forest land was generally the largest source of total nitrogen stream load and geologic material was generally the largest source of total phosphorus stream load generated within the 12,039 modeled watersheds. These results reflected the prevalence of these two natural sources and the low input from other nutrient sources across the region. However, the combined input from agriculture, point sources, and developed land, rather than natural nutrient sources, was responsible for most of the nutrient load discharged from many of the largest watersheds. Our results provided an understanding of the regional patterns in surface-water nutrient conditions and should be useful to environmental managers in future water-quality planning efforts.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗

USGS2026

Field methods, quality-assurance, and data management plan for water-quality activities and water-level measurements, Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho

Introduction Water-quality activities and water-level measurements conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Project Office coincide with the USGS mission of evaluating the quantity and quality of the Nation’s water resources. The activities are conducted in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Idaho Operations Office. Results of water-quality and hydraulic head research efforts are presented in various USGS and scientific journal publications (refer to Fisher, 2022). These data are stored internally in the Aquarius Time Series and Aquarius Samples databases and are publicly accessible through National Water Quality Monitoring Council (2025) and U.S. Geological Survey (2025). Data collected from our studies are used by researchers, Federal and State agencies, water management and regulatory organizations, as well as the public. This quality assurance plan (QAP) describes the methods and processes for field methods, data collection, data management, data auditing, and equipment management for both the water-quality and water-level programs at the USGS INL Project Office (hereto referred to as INL Project Office). A comprehensive quality assurance (QA) plan ensures that the processes defined in this document will guide the program staff to collect and publish reliable, useful, and defensible data products for stakeholders. This QAP supersedes previous versions of this document and is intended to complement the Quality Assurance and Data Management (QADM) Plan for the Idaho Water Science Center (IDWSC; Christopher Mebane and Lauren Zinsser, written commun., 2024).

Idaho↗

USGS2021

A basin-scale approach to estimating recharge in the desert: Anza-Cahuilla groundwater basin, CA

The Anza-Cahuilla groundwater basin located mainly in the semi-arid headwaters of the Santa Margarita River watershed in southern California is the principle source of groundwater for a rural disadvantaged community and two Native American Tribes, the Ramona Band of Cahuilla and the Cahuilla. Groundwater in the study area is derived entirely from precipitation and managing groundwater sustainably requires an accurate assessment of the water balance components, yet long-term estimates do not exist. Demand for groundwater in the region has increased and groundwater quality has decreased due to population growth and increased irrigated cropland. To characterize monthly long-term natural recharge and runoff estimates, a physically-based water balance model (Basin Characterization Model) was locally calibrated and validated using nearby streamgages and published estimates of climatic and hydrologic variables. The average modeled annual recharge and runoff from 1981 to 2010 was 5.4 × 10 6 and 1.2 × 10 7 m 3 , respectively, for the study area. Recharge and runoff do not reliably occur in large amounts every year and recharge rarely occurs in the groundwater basin footprint. These long-term estimates can be used by water managers, stakeholders, and Native American Tribes to develop plans for sustainable management of future water resources, and as inputs to a three-dimensional groundwater model.

California↗

USGS2023

Habitat selection and water dependency of feral burros in the Mojave Desert, California, USA

Expansion of feral burro ( Equus asinus ) populations across the southwestern United States is causing human–wildlife conflicts including rangeland degradation, competition with livestock and native species, and burro–vehicle collisions. On the Fort Irwin National Training Center (NTC) in California, feral burros interfere with military training and are involved in vehicle collisions and other conflicts (e.g., burros blocking access to buildings). Limited data on burro movements and resource use poses a challenge for the development of management plans and mitigation strategies. We estimated home range size, second- and third-order seasonal resource selection, and water dependency of 10 adult female feral burros fitted with global positioning system (GPS) collars on the NTC from November 2015 to April 2017. Mean 95% autocorrelated kernel home range size of female burros (253.9 ± 30.7 km 2 [SE]) did not differ among seasons or between burros that resided close to or far from urban areas. Burros selected areas closer to water in all seasons and at both spatial scales, but selection was stronger in the dry season and at the landscape scale. When available, burros strongly selected for areas closer to urban areas. Burros consistently selected for areas with green forage and at lower elevations, but selection for other topographical features was variable. Water use patterns were consistent with the resource selection results. Burros visited water sources twice as often (every 22.2 ± 6.3 hr) during the hot-dry season (Apr–Oct) compared to the cool-wet seasons (Nov–Mar; 2015: 45.9 ± 21.0; 2016: 39.7 ± 9.3 hr). Our results suggest that urban areas, and resources therein, and water sources have the biggest influence on burro resource selection, and management plans could focus mitigation programs on these areas.

California↗

USGS2005

Ground-water/surface-water responses to global climate simulations, Santa Clara-Calleguas basin, Ventura County, California, 1950-93

Climate variations can play an important, if not always crucial, role in successful conjunctive management of ground water and surface water resources. This will require accurate accounting of the links between variations in climate, recharge, and withdrawal from the resource systems, accurate projection or predictions of the climate variations, and accurate simulation of the responses of the resource systems. To assess linkages and predictability of climate influences on conjunctive management, global climate model (GCM) simulated precipitation rates were used to estimate inflows and outflows from a regional ground water model (RGWM) of the coastal aquifers of the Santa Clara-Calleguas Basin at Ventura, California, for 1950 to 1993. Interannual to interdecadal time scales of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) climate variations are imparted to simulated precipitation variations in the Southern California area and are realistically imparted to the simulated ground water level variations through the climate-driven recharge (and discharge) variations. For example, the simulated average ground water level response at a key observation well in the basin to ENSO variations of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures is 1.2 m/°C, compared to 0.9 m/°C in observations. This close agreement shows that the GCM-RGWM combination can translate global scale climate variations into realistic local ground water responses. Probability distributions of simulated ground water level excursions above a local water level threshold for potential seawater intrusion compare well to the corresponding distributions from observations and historical RGWM simulations, demonstrating the combination's potential usefulness for water management and planning. Thus the GCM-RGWM combination could be used for planning purposes and — when the GCM forecast skills are adequate — for near term predictions.

California↗

USGS2016

Discharge and nutrient transport between lakes in a hydrologically complex area of Voyageurs National Park, Minnesota, 2010-2012

An acoustic Doppler velocity meter (ADVM) was deployed in the narrows between Namakan and Kabetogama Lakes in Voyageurs National Park, Minnesota, from November 3, 2010, through October 3, 2012. The ADVM can account for wind, seiche, and changing flow direction in hydrologically complex areas. The objectives were to (1) estimate discharge and document the direction of water flow, (2) assess whether specific conductance can be used to determine flow direction, and (3) document nutrient and chlorophyll a concentrations at the narrows. The discharge direction through the narrows was seasonal. Water generally flowed out of Kabetogama Lake and into Namakan Lake throughout the ice-covered season. During spring, water flow was generally from Namakan Lake to Kabetogama Lake. During the summer and fall, the water flowed in both directions, affected in part by wind. Water flowed into Namakan Lake 70% of water year 2011 and 56% of water year 2012. Nutrient and chlorophyll a concentrations were highest during the summer months when water-flow direction was unpredictable. The use of an ADVM was effective for assessing flow direction and provided flow direction under ice. The results indicated the eutrophic Kabetogama Lake may have a negative effect on the more pristine Namakan Lake. The results also provide data on the effects of the current water-level management plan and may help determine if adjustments are necessary to help protect the aquatic ecosystem of Voyageurs National Park.

Minnesota↗

USGS2010

Hierarchical multi-scale classification of nearshore aquatic habitats of the Great Lakes: Western Lake Erie

Classification is a valuable conservation tool for examining natural resource status and problems and is being developed for coastal aquatic habitats. We present an objective, multi-scale hydrospatial framework for nearshore areas of the Great Lakes. The hydrospatial framework consists of spatial units at eight hierarchical scales from the North American Continent to the individual 270-m spatial cell. Characterization of spatial units based on fish abundance and diversity provides a fish-guided classification of aquatic areas at each spatial scale and demonstrates how classifications may be generated from that framework. Those classification units then provide information about habitat, as well as biotic conditions, which can be compared, contrasted, and hierarchically related spatially. Examples within several representative coastal or open water zones of the Western Lake Erie pilot area highlight potential application of this classification system to management problems. This classification system can assist natural resource managers with planning and establishing priorities for aquatic habitat protection, developing rehabilitation strategies, or identifying special management actions.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗