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Results for “Journal of Land Change Science”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

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At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources
USGS2002

Nitrate stable isotopes: Tools for determining nitrate sources among different land uses in the Mississippi River Basin

A study was conducted to determine whether NO 3 – stable isotopes (δ 15 N and δ 18 O), at natural abundance levels, could discriminate among NO 3 – sources from sites with different land uses at the basin scale. Water samples were collected from 24 sites in the Mississippi River Basin from five land-use categories: (1) large river basins (>34 590 km 2 ) draining multiple land uses and smaller basins in which the predominant land use was (2) urban, (3) undeveloped, (4) crops, or (5) crops and livestock. Our data suggest that riverine nitrates from different land uses have overlapping but moderately distinct isotopic signatures. δ 18 O data were critical in showing abrupt changes in NO 3 – source with discharge. The isotopic values of large rivers resembled crop sites, sites with livestock tended to have δ 15 N values characteristic of manure, and urban sites tended to have high δ 18 O values characteristic of atmospheric nitrate.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗
USGS2007

The FORE-SCE model: a practical approach for projecting land cover change using scenario-based modeling

A wide variety of ecological applications require spatially explicit, historic, current, and projected land use and land cover data. The U.S. Land Cover Trends project is analyzing contemporary (1973–2000) land-cover change in the conterminous United States. The newly developed FORE-SCE model used Land Cover Trends data and theoretical, statistical, and deterministic modeling techniques to project future land cover change through 2020 for multiple plausible scenarios. Projected proportions of future land use were initially developed, and then sited on the lands with the highest potential for supporting that land use and land cover using a statistically based stochastic allocation procedure. Three scenarios of 2020 land cover were mapped for the western Great Plains in the US. The model provided realistic, high-resolution, scenario-based land-cover products suitable for multiple applications, including studies of climate and weather variability, carbon dynamics, and regional hydrology.

Journal of Land Use Science↗
USGS2020

Geomorphological mapping and anthropogenic landform change in an urbanizing watershed using structure-from-motion photogrammetry and geospatial modeling techniques

Increasing urbanization and suburban growth in cities globally has highlighted the importance of land planning using detailed geomorphologic maps that depict anthropogenic landform changes. Such mapping provides information crucial for land management, hazard identification, and the management of the challenges arising from urbanization. The development and use of quantitative and repeatable methods to map anthropogenic and natural processes are required to advance the science of urban geomorphological mapping. This study investigated the application of geospatial modeling, structure-from-motion (SfM) photogrammetric methods and DEM differencing as means of quantifying anthropogenic landform changes from archival aerial imagery. Anthropogenic landforms were incorporated into a detailed geomorphologic map in an urbanizing watershed located in the Washington, D.C. metropolitan suburb of Vienna, Virginia.

Virginia↗
USGS2013

Effects of climate change and urban development on the distribution and conservation of vegetation in a Mediterranean type ecosystem

Climate and land-use changes are projected to threaten biodiversity over this century. However, few studies have considered the spatial and temporal overlap of these threats to evaluate how ongoing land-use change could affect species ranges projected to shift outside conservation areas. We evaluated climate change and urban development effects on vegetation distribution in the Southwest ecoregion, California Floristic Province, USA. We also evaluated how well a conservation network protects suitable habitat for rare plant species under these change projections and identified primary sources of uncertainty. We used consensus-based maps from three species distribution models (SDMs) to project current and future suitable habitat for 19 species representing different functional types (defined by fire-response – obligate seeders, resprouting shrubs – and life forms – herbs, subshrubs), and range sizes (large/common, small/rare). We used one spatially explicit urban growth projection; two climate models, emission scenarios, and probability thresholds applied to SDMs; and high-resolution (90 m) environmental data. We projected that suitable habitat could disappear for 4 species and decrease for 15 by 2080. Averaged centroids of suitable habitat (all species) were projected to shift tens (up to hundreds) of kilometers. Herbs showed a small-projected response to climate change, while obligate seeders could suffer the greatest losses. Several rare species could lose suitable habitat inside conservation areas while increasing area outside. We concluded that (i) climate change is more important than urban development for vegetation habitat loss in this ecoregion through 2080 due to diminishing amounts of undeveloped private land in this region; (ii) the existing conservation plan, while extensive, may be inadequate to protect plant diversity under projected patterns of climate change and urban development, (iii) regional assessments of the dynamics of the drivers of biodiversity change based on high-resolution environmental data and consensus predictive mapping, such as this study, are necessary to identify the species expected to be the most vulnerable and to meaningfully inform regional-scale conservation.

California↗
USGS2009

The Vigil Network: A means of observing landscape change in drainage basins

Long-term monitoring of geomorphic, hydrological, and biological characteristics of landscapes provides an effective means of relating observed change to possible causes of the change. Identification of changes in basin characteristics, especially in arid areas where the response to altered climate or land use is generally rapid and readily apparent, might provide the initial direct indications that factors such as global warming and cultural impacts have affected the environment. The Vigil Network provides an opportunity for earth and life scientists to participate in a systematic monitoring effort to detect landscape changes over time, and to relate such changes to possible causes. The Vigil Network is an ever-increasing group of sites and basins used to monitor landscape features with as much as 50 years of documented geomorphic and related observations.

Hydrological Sciences Journal↗
USGS2019

Informing planning and management through visitor experiences in Grand Staircase-Escalante National Monument

Policies mandate that managers at Grand Staircase-Escalante National Monument must balance recreational opportunities with a variety of resource management and utilization activities across a vast and diverse landscape containing numerous Wilderness Study Areas and other lands containing spectacular resources. This balancing act is stressed by increasing levels of use and recent changes in management direction and policy. An understanding of visitor preferences and current social conditions is an essential component of recreation management; however, scant social science data exist for the Monument. This study used semistructured qualitative interviews to describe Monument visitors’ motivations, experiences, and perceptions to determine existing social conditions. Results can help inform possible indicators of quality that can be used for long-term monitoring and adaptive management of the Monument’s unique wilderness resource.

Utah↗
USGS2015

Modelling regional land change scenarios to assess land abandonment and reforestation dynamics in the Pyrenees (France)

Over the last decades and centuries, European mountain landscapes have experienced substantial transformations. Natural and anthropogenic LULC changes (land use and land cover changes), especially agro-pastoral activities, have directly influenced the spatial organization and composition of European mountain landscapes. For the past sixty years, natural reforestation has been occurring due to a decline in both agricultural production activities and rural population. Stakeholders, to better anticipate future changes, need spatially and temporally explicit models to identify areas at risk of land change and possible abandonment. This paper presents an integrated approach combining forecasting scenarios and a LULC changes simulation model to assess where LULC changes may occur in the Pyrenees Mountains, based on historical LULC trends and a range of future socio-economic drivers. The proposed methodology considers local specificities of the Pyrenean valleys, sub-regional climate and topographical properties, and regional economic policies. Results indicate that some regions are projected to face strong abandonment, regardless of the scenario conditions. Overall, high rates of change are associated with administrative regions where land productivity is highly dependent on socio-economic drivers and climatic and environmental conditions limit intensive (agricultural and/or pastoral) production and profitability. The combination of the results for the four scenarios allows assessments of where encroachment (e.g. colonization by shrublands) and reforestation are the most probable. This assessment intends to provide insight into the potential future development of the Pyrenees to help identify areas that are the most sensitive to change and to guide decision makers to help their management decisions.

Journal of Mountain Science↗
USGS2005

The Circumpolar Arctic vegetation map

Question: What are the major vegetation units in the Arctic, what is their composition, and how are they distributed among major bioclimate subzones and countries? Location: The Arctic tundra region, north of the tree line. Methods: A photo-interpretive approach was used to delineate the vegetation onto an Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) base image. Mapping experts within nine Arctic regions prepared draft maps using geographic information technology (ArcInfo) of their portion of the Arctic, and these were later synthesized to make the final map. Area analysis of the map was done according to bioclimate subzones, and country. The integrated mapping procedures resulted in other maps of vegetation, topography, soils, landscapes, lake cover, substrate pH, and above-ground biomass. Results: The final map was published at 1:7 500 000 scale map. Within the Arctic (total area = 7.11 x 106 km 2), about 5.05 ?? 106 km2 is vegetated. The remainder is ice covered. The map legend generally portrays the zonal vegetation within each map polygon. About 26% of the vegetated area is erect shrublands, 18% peaty graminoid tundras, 13% mountain complexes, 12% barrens, 11% mineral graminoid tundras, 11% prostrate-shrub tundras, and 7% wetlands. Canada has by far the most terrain in the High Arctic mostly associated with abundant barren types and prostrate dwarf-shrub tundra, whereas Russia has the largest area in the Low Arctic, predominantly low-shrub tundra. Conclusions: The CAVM is the first vegetation map of an entire global biome at a comparable resolution. The consistent treatment of the vegetation across the circumpolar Arctic, abundant ancillary material, and digital database should promote the application to numerous land-use, and climate-change applications and will make updating the map relatively easy. ?? IAVS; Opulus Press.

Journal of Vegetation Science↗
USGS2017

Parcels versus pixels: modeling agricultural land use across broad geographic regions using parcel-based field boundaries

Land use and land cover (LULC) change occurs at a local level within contiguous ownership and management units (parcels), yet LULC models primarily use pixel-based spatial frameworks. The few parcel-based models being used overwhelmingly focus on small geographic areas, limiting the ability to assess LULC change impacts at regional to national scales. We developed a modified version of the Forecasting Scenarios of land use change model to project parcel-based agricultural change across a large region in the United States Great Plains. A scenario representing an agricultural biofuel scenario was modeled from 2012 to 2030, using real parcel boundaries based on contiguous ownership and land management units. The resulting LULC projection provides a vastly improved representation of landscape pattern over existing pixel-based models, while simultaneously providing an unprecedented combination of thematic detail and broad geographic extent. The conceptual approach is practical and scalable, with potential use for national-scale projections.

Journal of Land Use Science↗
USGS2002

Basis and methods of NASA airborne topographic mapper lidar surveys for coastal studies

This paper provides an overview of the basic principles of airborne laser altimetry for surveys of coastal topography, and describes the methods used in the acquisition and processing of NASA Airborne Topographic Mapper (ATM) surveys that cover much of the conterminous US coastline. This form of remote sensing, also known as "topographic lidar", has undergone extremely rapid development during the last two decades, and has the potential to contribute within a wide range of coastal scientific investigations. Various airborne laser surveying (ALS) applications that are relevant to coastal studies are being pursued by researchers in a range of Earth science disciplines. Examples include the mapping of "bald earth" land surfaces below even moderately dense vegetation in studies of geologic framework and hydrology, and determination of the vegetation canopy structure, a key variable in mapping wildlife habitats. ALS has also proven to be an excellent method for the regional mapping of geomorphic change along barrier island beaches and other sandy coasts due to storms or long-term sedimentary processes. Coastal scientists are adopting ALS as a basic method in the study of an array of additional coastal topics. ALS can provide useful information in the analysis of shoreline change, the prediction and assessment of landslides along seacliffs and headlands, examination of subsidence causing coastal land loss, and in predicting storm surge and tsunami inundation.

Journal of Coastal Research↗
USGS2012

Evidence from 12-year study links ecosystem changes in the Gulf of Maine with climate change

Investigators at the Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences (East Boothbay, Maine) and the U.S. Geological Survey collaborated to study ecosystem changes in the Gulf of Maine. As part of the Gulf of Maine North Atlantic Time Series (GNATS), a comprehensive long-term study of hydrographic, biological, optical and chemical properties, multiple cruises have been conducted each year since 2001 by using a portable laboratory aboard different vessels (figure 1) and occasionally a remotely controlled glider (figure 2). Data collected during these cruises, when analyzed within the context of a century of climatological and streamflow data, document changes in temperature, salinity, and coastal ocean productivity that appear to be related to recent increases in precipitation and streamflow. These results are evidence of a link between changing hydrologic conditions on land and changes in coastal ocean productivity.

EcoSystem Indicator Partnership Journal↗
USGS2003

Exploring Gusev Crater with Spirit: Review of science objectives and testable hypotheses

Gusev Crater was selected as the landing site for the Mars Exploration Rover (MER) Spirit mission. Located at the outlet of Ma'adim Vallis and 250 km south of the volcano Apollinaris Patera, Gusev is an outstanding site to achieve the goals of the MER mission. The crater could have collected sediments from a variety of sources during its 3.9 Ga history, including fluvial, lacustrine, volcanic, glacial, impact, regional and local aeolian, and global air falls. It is a unique site to investigate the past history of water on Mars, climate and geological changes, and the potential habitability of the planet, which are central science objectives of the MER mission. Because of its complex history and potential diversity, Gusev will allow the testing of a large spectrum of hypotheses with the complete suite of MER instruments. Evidence consistent with long-lived lake episodes exist in the landing ellipse area. They might offer a unique opportunity to study, for the first time, Martian aqueous sediments and minerals formed in situ in their geological context. We review the geological history and diversity of the landing site, the science hypotheses that can be tested during the MER mission, and the relevance of Gusev to the MER mission objectives and payload.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗
USGS2004

Landsat yesterday and today: An American vision and an old challenge

Since the late 1960s, the United States government has invested more than $1 billion in designing, launching, and operating the Landsat (land satellite) series of Earth-observing satellites. Global change researchers, geologists, and environmental scientists have used images gathered by the satellites for purposes ranging from human health research, energy exploration, and pollution detection to agricultural assessments, urban growth monitoring, and earthquake lineament studies. The earliest data were captured on a digital medium called wide-band video tape (WBVT). However, two decades of unsound media storage conditions and a poorly maintained processing system have left the physically deteriorating WBVTs with no mechanism for interpretation. A national treasure was in jeopardy. With seed money from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) began a project to rescue the data. More than 21,000 tapes from the 1970s have been transcribed to stable, archival media, preserving the data for future studies in Earth System Science.

Journal of Map & Geography Libraries↗
USGS2016

Modeled historical land use and land cover for the conterminous United States

The landscape of the conterminous United States has changed dramatically over the last 200 years, with agricultural land use, urban expansion, forestry, and other anthropogenic activities altering land cover across vast swaths of the country. While land use and land cover (LULC) models have been developed to model potential future LULC change, few efforts have focused on recreating historical landscapes. Researchers at the US Geological Survey have used a wide range of historical data sources and a spatially explicit modeling framework to model spatially explicit historical LULC change in the conterminous United States from 1992 back to 1938. Annual LULC maps were produced at 250-m resolution, with 14 LULC classes. Assessment of model results showed good agreement with trends and spatial patterns in historical data sources such as the Census of Agriculture and historical housing density data, although comparison with historical data is complicated by definitional and methodological differences. The completion of this dataset allows researchers to assess historical LULC impacts on a range of ecological processes.

Journal of Land Use Science↗
USGS2012

Reference hydrologic networks II. Using reference hydrologic networks to assess climate-driven changes in streamflow

Reference hydrologic networks (RHNs) can play an important role in monitoring for changes in the hydrological regime related to climate variation and change. Currently, the literature concerning hydrological response to climate variations is complex and confounded by the combinations of many methods of analysis, wide variations in hydrology, and the inclusion of data series that include changes in land use, storage regulation and water use in addition to those of climate. Three case studies that illustrate a variety of approaches to the analysis of data from RHNs are presented and used, together with a summary of studies from the literature, to develop approaches for the investigation of changes in the hydrological regime at a continental or global scale, particularly for international comparison. We present recommendations for an analysis framework and the next steps to advance such an initiative. There is a particular focus on the desirability of establishing standardized procedures and methodologies for both the creation of new national RHNs and the systematic analysis of data derived from a collection of RHNs.

Hydrological Sciences Journal↗
USGS2011

From agricultural intensification to conservation: Sediment transport in the Raccoon River, Iowa, 1916-2009

Fluvial sediment is a ubiquitous pollutant that negatively aff ects surface water quality and municipal water supply treatment. As part of its routine water supply monitoring, the Des Moines Water Works (DMWW) has been measuring turbidity daily in the Raccoon River since 1916. For this study, we calibrated daily turbidity readings to modern total suspended solid (TSS) concentrations to develop an estimation of daily sediment concentrations in the river from 1916 to 2009. Our objectives were to evaluate longterm TSS patterns and trends, and relate these to changes in climate, land use, and agricultural practices that occurred during the 93-yr monitoring period. Results showed that while TSS concentrations and estimated sediment loads varied greatly from year to year, TSS concentrations were much greater in the early 20th century despite drier conditions and less discharge, and declined throughout the century. Against a backdrop of increasing discharge in the Raccoon River and widespread agricultural adaptations by farmers, sediment loads increased and peaked in the early 1970s, and then have slowly declined or remained steady throughout the 1980s to present. With annual sediment load concentrated during extreme events in the spring and early summer, continued sediment reductions in the Raccoon River watershed should be focused on conservation practices to reduce rainfall impacts and sediment mobilization. Overall, results from this study suggest that eff orts to reduce sediment load from the watershed appear to be working. ?? 2011 by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America.

Journal of Environmental Quality↗
USGS2019

Drivers and uncertainties of forecasted range shifts for warm-water fishes under climate and land cover change

Land cover is an important determinant of aquatic habitat and is projected to shift with climate changes, yet climate-driven land cover changes are rarely factored into climate assessments. To quantify impacts and uncertainty of coupled climate and land cover change on warm-water fish species’ distributions, we used an ensemble model approach to project distributions of 14 species. For each species, current range projections were compared to 27 scenario-based projections and aggregated to visualize uncertainty. Multiple regression and model selection techniques were used to identify drivers of range change. Novel, or no-analogue, climates were assessed to evaluate transferability of models. Changes in total probability of occurrence ranged widely across species, from a 63% increase to a 65% decrease. Distributional gains and losses were largely driven by temperature and flow variables and underscore the importance of habitat heterogeneity and connectivity to facilitate adaptation to changing conditions. Finally, novel climate conditions were driven by mean annual maximum temperature, which stresses the importance of understanding the role of temperature on fish physiology and the role of temperature-mitigating management practices.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗
USGS2002

Dynamics of composition and structure in an old Sequoia sempervirens forest

Dynamics of a Sequoia sempervirens forest in northern California were studied with long-term plot data (1.44 ha) and recent transect data. The study was conducted in an old stand (> 1100 yr) on alluvial flats. Over three decades (1972–2001), changes in the composition and structure of the tree stratum were minor. Sequoia maintained a broad distribution of stem diameters throughout the period. Annual rates of Sequoia mortality (0.0029) and ingrowth (0.0029) were low, reflecting the great longevity of Sequoia and the slow canopy turnover of the study forest. Transect data also indicated a low frequency of canopy gap disturbance (≤ 0.4% of total land area per yr), but gap size was potentially large (> 0.1 ha) and the fraction of area in gaps (ca. 20%) was similar to other temperate forests. Regeneration quadrats sampled along transects, in gap centers, and on logs revealed that Sequoia regeneration is elevated at gap edges. The longevity of Sequoia and its response to gap disturbances ensure that it will remain a dominant species in the study forest.

Journal of Vegetation Science↗