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USGS2025

Global patterns of coseismic landslide runout mobility differ from aseismic landslide trends

Coseismic landslides significantly contribute to human and economic losses during and immediately following earthquakes, yet very little data on the runout of such landslides exist. While well-established behavior of aseismic (e.g., hydrologically triggered) landslide runout mobility suggests strong correlation between landslide size and mobility, limited studies of coseismic landslide runout find conflicting mobility trends. We present a global dataset of runout lengths produced from a new automated method for estimating landslide runout, developed and validated using 1726 manually mapped landslides from five unique earthquakes. We then apply the automated runout tool to 23 global earthquake-induced landslide inventories, producing a compiled database of 73,665 measured and estimated runout lengths of coseismic landslides to assess mobility trends. We find a significant divergence between well-established aseismic mobility trends and that of coseismic landslides, with far greater scatter and more complex mobility patterns in earthquake-triggered landslides. As a function of landslide size, we observe global coseismic landslide mobility patterns are bilinear, becoming increasingly less mobile with increasing size above some threshold. This discordance between aseismic and coseismic landslide mobility may be a function of landslide type, kinematics, hydrology, and or setting that systematically differ between triggering mechanisms and should be explored in more depth to develop predictive models of these unique runout patterns. These results suggest hazard and risk models for coseismic landslides may significantly under-predict or over-predict impacts, depending on the size of triggered landslides.

Engineering Geology↗
USGS2025

Refinements to the attenuated propagation of local earthquake shaking (APPLES) ground-motion-based earthquake early warning algorithm

We refined the Attenuated ProPagation of Local Earthquake Shaking (APPLES) ground-motion-based earthquake early warning (EEW) approach, and directly compare APPLES performance with that of the source-characterization-based U.S. ShakeAlert EEW system for a suite of historical earthquakes in the U.S. West Coast and Japan. APPLES is an extension of the Propagation of Local Undamped Motion (PLUM) algorithm in which observed shaking intensity at seismic stations is used to forward-predict intensity distributions to surrounding areas using an attenuation model derived from an intensity prediction equation. We test new configuration options within APPLES, such as using the second highest estimated ground motion rather than the maximum, to better match median ground-motion observations and reduce alerts for small magnitude earthquakes, both of which are key alerting priorities within ShakeAlert. We evaluate these configurations alongside ShakeAlert by comparing the ground-motion estimation accuracy and available warning times relative to station observations and ShakeMap distributions. Our preferred APPLES configuration produces accurate ground-motion estimates and corresponds better with median observations compared to ShakeAlert’s estimates. This preferred configuration substantially reduces alert issuance for M < 5.0 earthquakes compared to the previous APPLES configuration, and alert-release criteria can further restrict alerts to primarily M ≥ 5.5 earthquakes without requiring magnitude estimation. Prioritizing matching median-observed ground motions may reduce APPLES warning times compared to configurations that were tuned to avoid missed alerts (such as those that use the maximum estimated ground motions), which can lead to shorter warning times compared to ShakeAlert for the same alert threshold. However, station-based warning time assessments demonstrate that APPLES can outperform ShakeAlert for high target thresholds. APPLES is a simple, independent EEW approach that may improve the robustness of EEW for the West Coast of the U.S.

California, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2025

Assessing earthquake risks to lifeline infrastructure systems in the United States

The security and economic stability of the United States rely heavily on robust lifeline infrastructure systems and yet the risks to such systems are seldom quantified at the national scale. For example, while earthquake risks to buildings in the United States have been investigated at the national scale regularly, such risks to gas pipelines have rarely been investigated nationally. In this paper, we use examples from two critical infrastructure sectors to demonstrate (1) the nature of earthquake risks to lifeline infrastructure systems, (2) complexities involved in regional seismic risk assessments, and (3) how such risks change with time. We found that bridge risks can be underestimated by at least 64 % when viewed from repair costs instead of traffic demands and that regional risks can be underestimated by 19 % when spatial correlations of ground motion are ignored. Further, exceedance of traffic demand can be 50 times more likely to occur when viewed at the regional scale than when viewed at an individual bridge. Similarly, exceedance of repairs can be 180 times more likely to occur when viewed at the pipeline network level than at a segment-specific level. Finally, sensitivity analyses with the 2018 and 2023 USGS National Seismic Hazard Models indicate an increase in bridge risk of at least 24 % and an increase in exposed gas pipeline mileage of 43 %. The evolution of risks, complexities involved in assessments, and limited resources jointly underscore the need for more routine updates to nationwide seismic risk assessments of lifeline systems in the United States.

International Journal of Critical Infrastructure P↗
USGS2025

Estimated average annualized losses from potential building damage and fatalities due to earthquake-generated tsunamis in the United States

Earthquake-generated tsunamis represent substantial economic threats to states and territories in the United States (U.S.), but we are unaware of any effort to quantify potential impacts at the national level. This gap is partially due to the lack of nationally consistent data on tsunamigenic sources and associated return periods. This study addresses this issue and provides estimates of average annualized losses (AAL) for potential residential fatalities and capital stock losses associated with building damage (i.e., structural, non-structural, contents, and inventory damage) in the U.S. by curating tsunami-hazard information based on deterministic scenarios and probabilistic approaches, calculating potential losses, and estimating return periods where necessary. This assessment was done for the U.S. West Coast, Alaska, Hawaii, U.S. Pacific Territories, and U.S. Atlantic Territories. We estimate that earthquake-generated tsunamis that could affect these states and territories collectively represent $1 billion in potential AAL with 79 % of losses due to residential fatalities and 21 % of losses due to capital stock losses from building damage. We identify AAL variations based on county and county equivalents, states and territories, geographic regions, return periods, and departure-delay assumptions for evacuating residents. Results include high AAL values for potential fatalities in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Pacific Northwest region, high AAL values for potential building-related damage in Hawaii and California, and high building- and population-loss ratios for county equivalents in Alaska and U.S. territories.

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction↗
USGS2026

Opportunities for the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Seismic Hazard Model to improve seismic risk assessment of critical infrastructure.

As fragility and risk modeling techniques and computational capabilities evolve, complemented by moving toward more routine and systematic seismic risk assessment of all buildings and critical infrastructure, the authors pose a few critical questions to investigate how the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Models (NSHMs) can be used and enhanced further to serve such issues. In this paper, we use three examples from multiple sectors to (1) identify the role of USGS NSHMs in evaluating seismic risks to critical infrastructure, (2) quantify potential impacts from NSHM enhancements (i.e., [i] hazard curves for the vertical component of ground motion, [ii] stochastic event sets, and [iii] maps of probabilistic ground failure hazards), and (3) clarify the feasibility of relevant NSHM improvements. We illuminate that NSHMs are commonly used in location-specific performance assessments, whereas earthquake effects on critical infrastructure can be widespread across large geospatial regions. Further, we found that without the NSHM extensions considered here, risk can be severely underestimated, e.g., neglecting ground failure hazards can underestimate regional loss by a factor of two or more. Although many challenges remain, we developed example prototypes to clarify the feasibility of the NSHM extensions, which can facilitate improved management of risks to critical infrastructure.

Earthquake Spectra Journal↗
USGS2026

Seismic characteristics of the April 2024 eruption of Ruang Volcano, North Sulawesi, Indonesia

The two most recent eruptions of Ruang volcano, in 2002 and 2024, have been large (VEI 4) with very short precursory periods, 3 and 6 days, respectively. Background seismicity at Ruang volcano is generally low with 0–2 volcano-tectonic (VT) earthquakes per day. The 2024 eruptions were preceded by a notable increase in VT earthquakes from 11 to 15 April with a rapid escalation from 16 to 17 April in the form of increased VT swarms, and the appearance of low frequency earthquakes and short bursts of VT drumbeats shortly before the eruption. Similar VT seismic unrest was recorded in March 2015, May 2016, and April 2022, although none of these episodes culminated in an eruption. A comparison of seismic energy release between April 2022 and April 2024 shows distinct differences. In 2024, cumulative seismic energy reached its peak within 5 days, just before the onset of eruption on 17 April. In contrast, during the 2022-episode, energy release followed a more gradual increase over 8 days peaking on 16 April, then declining gradually without leading to eruption. Notably, low frequency (LF) and drumbeat earthquakes were absent in non-eruptive unrest episodes. The transition to proximal LFs in 2024 likely signals pressure fluctuations, intensified magma degassing, and conduit formation, acting as an important precursor to eruption. Additionally, the occurrence of short bursts of drumbeat seismicity likely reflects the onset of the shallow magma ascent and was an important short-term precursor to the eruption. Finally, we examine the potential influence of regional tectonic earthquakes on the escalation of precursory unrest in 2024.

North Sulawesi, Ruang volcano↗
USGS2024

A journey to the center of the USGS National Strong-motion Project processing and beyond

The United States Geological Survey (USGS) National Strong Motion Project (NSMP) has the primary U.S. government responsibility to acquire, process, and disseminate significant strong-motion earthquake ground motion records measured at surficial free-field stations, structures (buildings, dams, and bridges, and geotechnical arrays to the earthquake engineering community. As a result of the deployment of modern seismic instrumentation and growth of tools such as web-services, earthquake data from U.S. and international seismic networks are more accessible than ever. Our mission is to provide raw and processed strong-motion waveforms with PGA values greater than 0.1%g for M3.0 earthquakes and larger in California and M4.0 and larger within the conterminous US, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and Alaska. Datasets of interest to the engineering and geophysics communities, such as event sequences in areas of induced seismicity and significant global events, are also processed and posted at the Center for Engineering Strong Motion Data (CESMD) at strongmotioncenter.org when available through collaboration with the international strong-motion data community. Here we outline (1) the NSMP’s current workflow to acquire, process, and distribute data at CESMD; (2) our new endeavours and collaborations focusing on comparison and integration of waveform processing software, development of techniques for metadata quality checks before and after earthquakes, and construction of a dynamic site characterization repository; and (3) our topics for possible collaboration topics across the global strong-motion community.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2025

Timescales of surface faulting preservation in low-strain intraplate regions from landscape evolution modeling and the geomorphic and historical record

Large surface-rupturing intraplate earthquakes in stable continental regions (SCRs) are uncommon globally and have recurrence intervals of thousands to hundreds of thousands of years based on the paleoseismic and geomorphic record, challenging accurate active fault identification in these regions. To constrain the timescales of preservation for scarps created by surface ruptures from dip-slip earthquakes, we use a two-dimensional scarp diffusion model for typical intraplate settings and explore which parameters influence fault scarp preservation. These parameters include the coseismic vertical surface offset, the recurrence interval of similar magnitude earthquakes, diffusivity (as a proxy for mean annual precipitation rate), and the erodibility of the surficial material. We constrain parameter ranges from a compilation of historical surface ruptures in intraplate settings in a variety of climates, including the Central and Eastern United States, Australia, Europe, Central Asia (Mongolia, China), India, and West Africa. The timescales of scarp preservation from landscape evolution modeling agree well with observations of scarp preservation in low-strain SCR and intraplate tectonic settings, with some notable exceptions for Australian scarps. We find that the erodibility of the surficial material and earthquake recurrence interval have a stronger effect on the timescales of scarp preservation than diffusivity or coseismic vertical surface offset. Our model results may aid in identifying and characterizing subtle, slow-moving active faults in low-strain SCR and intraplate tectonic settings for different tectonic, geomorphic, and climatic characteristics. Accurate fault locations and characterization from the landscape record has implications for both probabilistic seismic and fault displacement hazard analyses.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗
USGS2026

Surface-wave relocation and characterization of the 2024–2025 dyking episode along the Fentale–Dofen segment of the Ethiopian rift

From late-December 2024 to mid-March 2025, a 50-km-long dyke intrusion triggered over 300 earthquakes (magnitude 4 to 5.9) between Fentale and Dofen volcanoes along the Northern Main Ethiopian Rift. Dyke intrusions periodically occur along the Fentale–Dofen magmatic segment and are an expression of ongoing rift extension. Preliminary analyses using interferometric synthetic aperture radar revealed extensive ground deformation (up to 60 cm), which closely matched the temporal and spatial evolution of surface manifestations and earthquake locations from global catalogues. While global catalogues are critical for real-time monitoring, the precision of locations in remote and or sparsely instrumented regions can be low. In this investigation, we present surface-wave relocation results of the dyking episode that began near Fentale volcano in December 2024. We estimate relative locations using differential traveltimes measured from regional-to-teleseismic distance surface-wave observations of earthquakes reported by the U.S. Geological Survey. Relative relocations reduce the initial region of diffuse seismicity to a 50-km-long narrow band bounding the strike of surface manifestations and the zone of maximum surface deformation. We demonstrate the precision of surface-wave relocations over incremental time periods, capturing the progression of dyking from seismic onset through seismic migration and caldera subsidence. Results showcase the utility of surface-wave relocations in the characterization of dyking episodes and provide complementary insights into the current understanding of the Fentale–Dofen volcanic plumbing system.

Geophysical Journal International↗
USGS2025

3D viscoelastic models of slip-deficit rate along the Cascadia subduction zone

Interseismic deformation in the Pacific Northwest is constrained by the horizontal crustal velocity field derived from the Global Positioning System (GPS) in addition to vertical rates derived from GPS, leveling, and tide gauge measurements. Such measurements were folded in to deformation models of fault slip rates as part of the 2023 National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) update. Here I build upon one of the contributing models, the viscoelastic earthquake-cycle model of Pollitz [2022]. This model permits inclusion of effects of time-dependent viscoelastic relaxation within earthquake cycles (i.e., ‘ghost transients’) and laterally variable elastic and/or ductile material properties. I lever-age these capabilities to incorporate the Cascadia megathrust into Western U.S.-wide deformation models in which crustal fault slip rates are estimated simultaneously with slip deficit rates along the interplate boundary between the descending Juan de Fuca plate and North American plate. This effort includes construction of a margin-wide model of viscoelastic structure founded on the Slab 2.0 model and probes different models of the ductile properties of the surrounding oceanic asthenosphere, continental lower crust, and mantle asthenosphere. This results in new estimates of the distribution of slip deficit rate along the ∼ 1000 km long margin, highlights the importance of correcting for glacial-isostatic adjustment effects, and permits assessment of sensitivity of results to assumed ductile properties.

California, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2026

Hyperspectral narrowband imaging spectroscopy: A new paradigm for Earth observation

This editorial introduces the Special Issue entitled “Hyperspectral Narrowband Imaging Spectroscopy: A New Paradigm for Earth Observation” in the August 2026 issue of Photogrammetric Engineering & Remote Sensing (PE&RS), the flagship journal of the American Society for Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing (ASPRS). This volume represents the fourth dedicated hyperspectral special issue published in PE&RS, following earlier contributions by Thenkabail et al. (2025, 2024a, 2024b), and continues ASPRS’s commitment to advancing cutting‑edge imaging spectroscopy research and its applications across Earth system science. Remote sensing is undergoing one of the most profound transformations in its history. The emergence of hyperspectral narrowband (HNB) imaging spectroscopy data, capable of acquiring hundreds of contiguous, narrow spectral bands, has shifted the discipline from observing Earth in a handful of broad spectral windows to capturing continuous spectral signatures of the Planet. This transition marks a decisive break from the multispectral paradigm that has dominated satellite remote sensing for nearly five decades, driven by the advent of new orbital imaging spectrometers such as EnMAP, PRISMA, and NASA’s EMIT, and by the forthcoming Surface Biology and Geology (SBG) mission ((Pires Silva et al., 2026; Bourriz et al., 2025; Thenkabail et al., 2025; Chabrillat et al., 2024; Aneece et al., 2024; Dave et al., 2024; Thenkabail et al., 2024a; Thenkabail et al., 2024b; Thenkabail, 2024a; Thenkabail, 2024b; Thompson et al., 2022; Kokaly et al., 2022; Aneece & Thenkabail, 2022; Cawse Nicholson et al., 2021; Guanter et al., 2021; Vangi et al., 2021; Thenkabail et al., 2021). These missions (e.g., Table 1) deliver unprecedented spectral fidelity, improved signal to noise ratios, and global coverage capabilities, enabling a new era of quantitative, spectroscopy based Earth observation. Where multispectral broadbands (MBBs) provide only a few discrete measurements along the electromagnetic spectrum, HNB systems deliver rich, diagnostic information that enables scientists to characterize Earth’s surface with unprecedented biochemical, biophysical, and structural detail (Figure 1a, 1b). The implications for environmental monitoring, agriculture, water resources, and mineral exploration are profound. Several overarching themes emerge: • Spectral fidelity matters. The ability to preserve subtle absorption features is essential for mineral mapping, vegetation trait retrieval, and biochemical modeling. • AI and deep learning are indispensable. From destriping to classification, modern analytics must be scalable, label‑efficient, and capable of exploiting the full spectral–spatial richness of HNB data. • Physics‑based and data‑driven approaches must converge. Radiative transfer models such as PROSAIL, enhanced with localized soil parameterizations, remain foundational for biophysical retrievals and model‑based inference. • Dimensionality reduction and feature extraction are critical. Techniques such as L1‑ISOMAP demonstrate that intelligent manifold learning can unlock the structure of fused, high‑dimensional datasets. • Next‑generation architectures must be interactive and multimodal. ICTNet exemplifies the future of hyperspectral classification: hybrid, synergistic, and capable of modeling both local textures and global spectral dependencies.

Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing (PE↗
USGS2024

Evaluation of an open earthquake early warning system in Mexico, and laboratory tests of their sensors

Microelectromechanical system (MEMS) accelerometers are useful for seismological and engineering applications because of their ability to record unsaturated large seismic signals. Recent advances in MEMS technologies enable the design of instruments with improved capabilities that also allow the recording of small signals. As a result, MEMS can be useful across a broad dynamic range and for both major earthquakes and smaller magnitude events. Here, we analyze the performance of a MEMS‐based accelerometer with the capability of real‐time data transmission. We discuss the self‐noise level, dynamic range, and sensitivity, along with the timing precision and data transmission latency, and compare these parameters to other MEMS‐based instruments. We also summarize observations from a regional network deployed in southern Mexico over a period of 3+ yr for the purpose of earthquake early warning. In addition to the sensor evaluation, we present a large, openly available data set of strong motion data from the Mexican network that comprises continuous ground‐motion records from 24 accelerometers in the period between 2017 and 2022.

Seismological Research Letters↗
USGS2026

Rapid seismic and infrasound assessment of large landslides: A case study from Denali National Park and Preserve (Alaska)

Large, rapid landslides are a global hazard that can occur in remote, mountainous areas. Eyewitness reports of landslides and satellite imagery can often be limited or delayed, particularly during inclement weather. However, landslide-generated seismic and infrasound (low-frequency atmospheric sound) waves can be remotely detected in near real-time. This information can significantly expedite characterization and possible landslide response activities. Here, we highlight these capabilities using a > 4 million m³ ice–rock avalanche in Denali National Park and Preserve (Alaska). This event was detected via a landslide-specific seismic location and volume estimation algorithm deployed in Alaska, and — notably — by standard earthquake monitoring systems. Following rapid detection of this event, we combined its seismic and infrasound dataset with optical, synthetic aperture radar, and oblique aerial imagery, multitemporal digital elevation models, and a numerical flow model to reconstruct its failure timeline and dynamics. We apply array processing to infrasound signals traveling > 250 km and find that two precursory events occurred minutes prior to the main failure. We use long-period seismic signals to infer the force exerted by the landslide on the Earth and constrain the rheological parameters of our numerical flow simulation with this result and deposit morphology. The main failure produced a steeply-dipping impulsive initial downward force and reached speeds exceeding 60 m/s. This impulsive force generated relatively strong seismic body waves, which contributed to the earthquake system detection. This large, remote Alaska landslide underscores the key value of seismic and infrasound analysis for rapid landslide assessment and motivates efforts to further operationalize these approaches.

Alaska↗
USGS2025

A 700-year rupture sequence of great eastern Aleutian earthquakes from tsunami modeling of stratigraphic records

Great Aleutian underthrusting earthquakes produced destructive tsunamis impacting Hawaiʻi in 1946 and 1957. Prior modeling of the 1957 tsunami deposit and runup records on eastern Aleutian and Hawaiian Islands jointly with tide-gauge observations across the Pacific Ocean constrained a rupture model with shallow slip up to 26 m along 600 km of the plate boundary. Here we implement this modeling approach to older deposits and show alternating deep and shallow megathrust slip up to 26, 32, and 22 m for great earthquakes along the same segment in the 18 th , 15 th , and 14 th centuries. All three modeled prehistoric Aleutian earthquakes produce tsunami inundation in Hawaiʻi with the most severe, 14 th century event having impacts exceeding the 1957 event. The along-dip variability of these four ruptures spanning seven centuries provides insights on earthquake cycles for engineering design and hazard assessment. The 15 th century and 1957 rupture models provide evidence for recurrence of tsunami earthquakes, which can produce disproportionately large tsunamis for a given moment magnitude due to reduced rigidity in the shallow megathrust. The 14 th and 18 th century events likely ruptured deeper regions that did not slip in 1957, suggesting potential for corresponding deeper failure in the next great eastern Aleutian earthquake.

Alaska, Hawaii↗
USGS2023

Slow slip detectability in seafloor pressure records offshore Alaska

In subduction zones worldwide, seafloor pressure data are used to observe tectonic deformation, particularly from megathrust earthquakes and slow slip events (SSEs). However, such measurements are also sensitive to oceanographic circulation-generated pressures over a range of frequencies that conflate with tectonic signals of interest. Using seafloor pressure and temperature data from the Alaska Amphibious Community Seismic Experiment, and sea surface height data from satellite altimetry, we evaluate the efficacy of various seasonal and oceanographic pressure signal proxy corrections and conduct synthetic tests to determine their impact on the timing and amplitude prediction of ramp-like signals typical of SSEs. We find that subtracting out the first mode of the complex empirical orthogonal functions of the pressure records on either the shelf or slope yields signal root-mean-square error (RMS) reductions up to 73% or 80%, respectively. Additional correction with proxies that exploit the depth-dependent spatial coherence of pressure records provides cumulative variance reductions up to 83% and 93%, respectively. Our detectability tests show that the timing and amplitude of synthetic SSE-like ramps can be well constrained for ramp amplitudes ≥4 cm on the shelf and ≥2 cm on the slope, using a fully automated detector. The principal limits on detectability are residual abrupt changes in pressure that occur as part of the transition to and from summer to winter conditions but are not adequately characterized by our seasonal corrections, as well as the inability to properly account for instrumental drift, which is not readily separated from the seasonal signal.

Alaska↗
USGS2025

Special issue "Effects of surface geology on seismic motion (ESG): General state-of-research"

To understand and predict the behaviors of strong ground motions incurred during devastating earthquakes, studies focused on the “effects of surface geology (ESG) on seismic motions” (following tradition, herein contracted as: “ESG”) have progressed steadily in the last three decades. These ESG studies typically involve in situ measurements of the wavefield and commonly apply both analytical and computational approaches. Concurrently, improvements in ESG related research can be readily attributed to the proliferation of openly accessible strong motion data, as well as advances in computational power. Nevertheless, there remain significant shortfalls in our understanding of the epistemic and aleatory uncertainties associated with the ESG as demonstrated by phenomena from recent deadly earthquake-related site effects. Thus, investigations toward addressing these deficiencies should be underscored in future earthquake related disaster mitigation efforts. This special issue of Earth, Planets, and Space (EPS) is dedicated to the ongoing efforts by the International Association of Seismology and Physics of the Earth’s Interior (IASPEI) and the International Association of Earthquake Engineering (IAEE) that champion activities promoting studies related to the ESG.

Earth, Planets and Space↗
USGS2025

Broadband stochastic simulation of earthquake ground motions with multiple strong phases with an application to the 2023 Kahramanmaraş, Turkey (Türkiye), earthquake

Stochastic ground motion simulation models are often less accurate at lower frequencies than at higher frequencies when fitting recorded data unless supplemented by a deterministic forward directivity velocity pulse model. Moreover, time-modulated stochastic models, which adjust ground motion amplitudes over time, typically use functions that fail to capture multiple strong-motion phases. The February 2023 Turkey (Türkiye) earthquake exhibited diverse recordings, including near-fault and far-field motions with pulse-like and non-pulse-like characteristics, along with single and multiple strong-motion phases. To better represent such a diverse set of recordings, this study enhances a fully non-stationary site-based stochastic model without combining it with a deterministic model. Improvements include a new band-pass filter with upper- and lower-frequency limits, which refines the representation of the low-frequency content. Moreover, a time-modulating function that can represent energy arrival in multiple strong phases is introduced. The reference model’s parameters are identified by fitting to the energy content, zero-level crossings, and cumulative counts of positive-minima and negative-maxima of a target accelerogram. This fitting procedure is modified to address the increased number of parameters. These improvements broaden the reference model’s applicability while preserving its simplicity, a key aspect appealing to engineering practitioners. The improved model’s applicability is demonstrated by simulating a dataset from the February 2023 Türkiye earthquake, and the accuracy is tested using a pulse-like Next Generation Attenuation Relationships for Western United States dataset. Validations are performed based on total energy, zero-level crossings, Fourier amplitude spectrum, elastic response spectra, and peak ground motion parameters. Validations are performed schematically in the time and frequency domains and quantitatively using goodness-of-fit scores, various validation-metrics errors, and inter-period correlations. Overall, the improved stochastic model can effectively simulate a set of diverse ground motion recordings, including near-fault pulse-like records, records with multiple strong phases, and far-field motions across a broad frequency range.

Kahramanmaraş↗
USGS2026

Orientation dependence of probabilistic seismic hazard estimates from CyberShake physics-based simulations

Earthquake ground‐motion intensities, such as pseudospectral accelerations (SAs), can vary significantly with horizontal orientation. However, conducting probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for each horizontal orientation is challenging because current ground‐motion models used in PSHA consider only a single horizontal intensity value, usually the median across all orientations, known as RotD50. To address this limitation, we employ physics‐based simulations for PSHA, which contain full waveforms from which ground‐motion intensities can be computed for all horizontal orientations to study directional seismic hazard. We apply our approach to the latest CyberShake study of the Greater Los Angeles metropolitan area, developed by the Statewide California Earthquake Center, finding that seismic hazard at a 2475‐yr return period, a common value used for earthquake‐resistant design, varies significantly with horizontal orientation. For instance, for SAs at 3 s, the maximum seismic hazard across all horizontal orientations is, on average, 15% higher than the median RotD50 hazard, with these differences becoming more pronounced at longer periods. These observed variations can generally be attributed to physical mechanisms that polarize seismic waves, such as the radiation pattern of the earthquake source and the influence of the subsurface structure. These results may have important implications for earthquake engineering applications, particularly for long‐period structures in areas with substantial horizontal variations in seismic hazard.

California↗