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USGS2007

Survey trends of North American shorebirds: Population declines or shifting distributions?

We analyzed data from two surveys of fall migrating shorebirds in central and eastern North America to estimate annual trends in means per survey and to determine whether trends indicate a change in population size or might have been caused by other factors. The analysis showed a broad decline in means per survey in Atlantic Canada and the northeastern United States (North Atlantic region). For example, 9 of 9 significant trends in this region were <1 (P=0.004), and the mean, annual rate of change among 30 species was 0.9783, a decline of −2.17% per year (P<0.001). Trends in the midwestern United States (Midwest region) showed no clear pattern. The mean among 29 species was 1.0090 (P=0.35). Only 4 of the trends were significant. Several hypotheses were evaluated to identify causes of the declining means per survey in the North Atlantic region. The most likely hypothesis appears to be a decline in the breeding populations that supply migrants to the North Atlantic region, but a change in movements, for example passing through the region more quickly in recent years, cannot be excluded as an explanation. Further surveys of arctic breeding areas coupled with analysis of long‐term survey data from western North America would be helpful in determining whether the declines found in this analysis are also occurring in other areas.

Journal of Avian Biology↗

USGS2014

Occupancy of yellow-billed and Pacific loons: evidence for interspecific competition and habitat mediated co-occurrence

Interspecific competition is an important process structuring ecological communities, however, it is difficult to observe in nature. We used an occupancy modelling approach to evaluate evidence of competition between yellow-billed ( Gavia adamsii ) and Pacific ( G. pacifica ) loons for nesting lakes on the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska. With multiple years of data and survey platforms, we estimated dynamic occupancy states (e.g. rates of colonization or extinction from individual lakes) and controlled for detection differences among aircraft platforms and ground survey crews. Results indicated that yellow-billed loons were strong competitors and negatively influenced the occupancy of Pacific loons by excluding them from potential breeding lakes. Pacific loon occupancy was conditional on the presence of yellow-billed loons, with Pacific loons having almost a tenfold decrease in occupancy probability when yellow-billed loons were present and a threefold decrease in colonization probability when yellow-billed loons were present in the current or previous year. Yellow-billed and Pacific loons co-occurred less than expected by chance except on very large lakes or lakes with convoluted shorelines; variables which may decrease the cost of maintaining a territory in the presence of the other species. These results imply the existence of interspecific competition between yellow-billed and Pacific loons for nesting lakes; however, habitat characteristics which facilitate visual and spatial separation of territories can reduce competitive interactions and promote species co-occurrence.

Alaska↗

USGS2014

Nutritional stress affects corticosterone deposition in feathers of Caspian tern chicks

Stressful environmental conditions affect the adrenocortical function of developing animals, which can have consequences for their fitness. Discovery of the avian stress hormone corticosterone (CORT) in feathers has the potential to broaden the application of endocrine research in ecological and evolutionary studies of wild birds by providing a long-term measure of CORT secretion. Mechanisms of CORT deposition in feathers are not well known and few studies have related feather CORT to circulating plasma CORT during feather growth. Our objective was to experimentally test the validity of using feather CORT as a measure of CORT secretion in developing birds experiencing nutritional stress. Caspian tern Hydroprogne caspia chicks were fed ad libitum or restricted (35% less than ad libitum) diets for four weeks. We measured CORT in feathers from these chicks to examine the relationship between feather CORT concentrations and nutritional limitation, circulating plasma CORT, and feather development. We found that feather CORT was higher in controls fed ad libitum than in restricted individuals, despite higher levels of plasma CORT in restricted chicks compared to controls. Feather mass and growth rates were strongly and positively related to feather CORT concentrations in both treatments. This is the first experimental study to show that feather CORT concentrations can be lower in response to nutritional stress, even when plasma CORT concentrations are elevated. Our results indicate that CORT deposition in feathers may be confounded when feather mass and growth rates are compromised by nutritional stress. We conclude that feather CORT can be used for assessing nutritional stress in growing birds, but the direction of response depends on how strongly stress affects feather development.

Journal of Avian Biology↗

USGS2015

Re-colonization by common eiders Somateria mollissima in the Aleutian Archipelago following removal of introduced arctic foxes Vulpes lagopus

Islands provide refuges for populations of many species where they find safety from predators, but the introduction of predators frequently results in elimination or dramatic reductions in island-dwelling organisms. When predators are removed, re-colonization for some species occurs naturally, and inter-island phylogeographic relationships and current movement patterns can illuminate processes of colonization. We studied a case of re-colonization of common eiders Somateria mollissima following removal of introduced arctic foxes Vulpes lagopus in the Aleutian Archipelago, Alaska. We expected common eiders to resume nesting on islands cleared of foxes and to re-colonize from nearby islets, islands, and island groups. We thus expected common eiders to show limited genetic structure indicative of extensive mixing among island populations. Satellite telemetry was used to record current movement patterns of female common eiders from six islands across three island groups. We collected genetic data from these and other nesting common eiders at 14 microsatellite loci and the mitochondrial DNA control region to examine population genetic structure, historical fluctuations in population demography, and gene flow. Our results suggest recent interchange among islands. Analysis of microsatellite data supports satellite telemetry data of increased dispersal of common eiders to nearby areas and little between island groups. Although evidence from mtDNA is suggestive of female dispersal among island groups, gene flow is insufficient to account for recolonization and rapid population growth. Instead, near-by remnant populations of common eiders contributed substantially to population expansion, without which re-colonization would have likely occurred at a much lower rate. Genetic and morphometric data of common eiders within one island group two and three decades after re-colonization suggests reduced movement of eiders among islands and little movement between island groups after populations were re-established. We predict that re-colonization of an island group where all common eiders are extirpated could take decades.

Alaska↗

USGS2015

Comparative demographics of a Hawaiian forest bird community

Estimates of demographic parameters such as survival and reproductive success are critical for guiding management efforts focused on species of conservation concern. Unfortunately, reliable demographic parameters are difficult to obtain for any species, but especially for rare or endangered species. Here we derived estimates of adult survival and recruitment in a community of Hawaiian forest birds, including eight native species (of which three are endangered) and two introduced species at Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge, Hawaiʻi. Integrated population models (IPM) were used to link mark–recapture data (1994–1999) with long-term population surveys (1987–2008). To our knowledge, this is the first time that IPM have been used to characterize demographic parameters of a whole avian community, and provides important insights into the life history strategies of the community. The demographic data were used to test two hypotheses: 1) arthropod specialists, such as the ‘Akiapōlā‘au Hemignathus munroi , are ‘slower’ species characterized by a greater relative contribution of adult survival to population growth, i.e. lower fecundity and increased adult survival; and 2) a species’ susceptibility to environmental change, as reflected by its conservation status, can be predicted by its life history traits. We found that all species were characterized by a similar population growth rate around one, independently of conservation status, origin (native vs non-native), feeding guild, or life history strategy (as measured by ‘slowness’), which suggested that the community had reached an equilibrium. However, such stable dynamics were achieved differently across feeding guilds, as demonstrated by a significant increase of adult survival and a significant decrease of recruitment along a gradient of increased insectivory, in support of hypothesis 1. Supporting our second hypothesis, we found that slower species were more vulnerable species at the global scale than faster ones. The possible causes and conservation implications of these patterns are discussed.

Hawaii↗

USGS2015

Multi-decadal trends in spring arrival of avian migrants to the central Arctic coast of Alaska: Effects of environmental and ecological factors

Warming in the Arctic has caused the transition from winter to summer to occur weeks earlier over the last half century, yet little is known about whether avian migrants have altered their timing of arrival on breeding areas to match this earlier seasonal transition. Over a 50-yr period, we examined trends in the timing of the first arrival for 16 avian migrant species at the terminus of their northward migration along the central Arctic coast of Alaska and compared these trends to factors potentially influencing migration phenology. Date of first arrival occurred an average of 0.12 d yr −1 or 6 d (range = 3–10 d) earlier across all species and did not differ significantly among species between 1964 and 2013. Local climatic variables, particularly temperature, had a greater effect on a species first arrival date than did large-scale climatic predictors. First arrival date was 1.03 d earlier for every 1°C annual change in temperature, but there was nearly a 2-fold difference in the range of responses across species (0.69–1.33 d °C −1 ), implying that some species did better than others at timing their arrival with changing temperature. There was weak support for an influence of foraging strategy, migration distance, and flight path on timing of first arrival. Our findings, like others from temperate latitudes, indicate that avian migrants are responsive to changing environmental conditions, though some species appear to be more adaptive than others.

Alaska↗

USGS2016

The relationship between female brooding and male nestling provisioning: does climate underlie geographic variation in sex roles?

Comparative studies of populations occupying different environments can provide insights into the ecological conditions affecting differences in parental strategies, including the relative contributions of males and females. Male and female parental strategies reflect the interplay between ecological conditions, the contributions of the social mate, and the needs of offspring. Climate is expected to underlie geographic variation in incubation and brooding behavior, and can thereby affect both the absolute and relative contributions of each sex to other aspects of parental care such as offspring provisioning. However, geographic variation in brooding behavior has received much less attention than variation in incubation attentiveness or provisioning rates. We compared parental behavior during the nestling period in populations of orange-crowned warblers Oreothlypis celata near the northern (64°N) and southern (33°N) boundaries of the breeding range. In Alaska, we found that males were responsible for the majority of food delivery whereas the sexes contributed equally to provisioning in California. Higher male provisioning in Alaska appeared to facilitate a higher proportion of time females spent brooding the nestlings. Surprisingly, differences in brooding between populations could not be explained by variation in ambient temperature, which was similar between populations during the nestling period. While these results represent a single population contrast, they suggest additional hypotheses for the ecological correlates and evolutionary drivers of geographic variation in brooding behavior, and the factors that shape the contributions of each sex.

Journal of Avian Biology↗

USGS2015

The effects of heterospecifics and climatic conditions on incubation behavior within a mixed-species colony

Parental incubation behavior largely influences nest survival, a critical demographic process in avian population dynamics, and behaviors vary across species with different life history breeding strategies. Although research has identified nest survival advantages of mixing colonies, behavioral mechanisms that might explain these effects is largely lacking. We examined parental incubation behavior using video-monitoring techniques on Alcatraz Island, California, of black-crowned night-heron Nycticorax nycticorax (hereinafter, night-heron) in a mixed-species colony with California gulls Larus californicus and western gulls L. occidentalis . We first quantified general nesting behaviors (i.e. incubation constancy, and nest attendance), and a suite of specific nesting behaviors (i.e. inactivity, vigilance, preening, and nest maintenance) with respect to six different daily time periods. We employed linear mixed effects models to investigate environmental and temporal factors as sources of variation in incubation constancy and nest attendance using 211 nest days across three nesting seasons (2010–2012). We found incubation constancy (percent of time on the eggs) and nest attendance (percent of time at the nest) were lower for nests that were located < 3 m from one or more gull nest, which indirectly supports the predator protection hypothesis, whereby heterospecifics provide protection allowing more time for foraging and other self-maintenance activities. To our knowledge, this is the first empirical evidence of the influence of one nesting species on the incubation behavior of another. We also identified distinct differences between incubation constancy and nest attentiveness, indicating that these biparental incubating species do not share similar energetic constraints as those that are observed for uniparental species. Additionally, we found that variation in incubation behavior was a function of temperature and precipitation, where the strength of these effects was dependent on the time of day. Overall, these findings strengthen our understanding of incubation behavior and nest ecology of a colonial-nesting species.

California↗

USGS2017

Movements of four native Hawaiian birds across a naturally fragmented landscape

Animals often increase their fitness by moving across space in response to temporal variation in habitat quality and resource availability, and as a result of intra and inter-specific interactions. The long-term persistence of populations and even whole species depends on the collective patterns of individual movements, yet animal movements have been poorly studied at the landscape level. We quantified movement behavior within four native species of Hawaiian forest birds in a complex lava-fragmented landscape: Hawai‛i ‘amakihi Chlorodrepanis virens , ‘oma‘o Myadestes obscurus , ‘apapane Himatione sanguinea , and ‘i‘iwi Drepanis coccinea . We evaluated the relative importance of six potential intrinsic and extrinsic drivers of movement behavior and patch fidelity: 1) forest fragment size, 2) the presence or absence of invasive rats ( Rattus sp.), 3) season, 4) species, 5) age, and 6) sex. The study was conducted across a landscape of 34 forest fragments varying in size from 0.07 to 12.37 ha, of which 16 had rats removed using a treatment-control design. We found the largest movements in the nectivorous ‘apapane and ‘i‘iwi, intermediate levels in the generalist Hawai‛i ‘amakihi, and shortest average movement for the ‘oma‘o, a frugivore. We found evidence for larger patch sizes increasing patch fidelity only in the ‘oma‘o, and an effect of rat-removal increasing patch fidelity of Hawai‛i ‘amakihi only after two years of rat-removal. Greater movement during the non-breeding season was observed in all species, and season was an important factor in explaining higher patch fidelity in the breeding season for ‘apapane and ‘i‘iwi. Sex was important in explaining patch fidelity in ‘oma‘o only, with males showing higher patch fidelity. Our results provide new insights into how these native Hawaiian species will respond to a changing environment, including habitat fragmentation and changing distribution of threats from climate change.

Journal of Avian Biology↗

USGS2017

Divergence and gene flow in the globally distributed blue-winged ducks

The ability to disperse over long distances can result in a high propensity for colonizing new geographic regions, including uninhabited continents, and lead to lineage diversification via allopatric speciation. However, high vagility can also result in gene flow between otherwise allopatric populations, and in some cases, parapatric or divergence-with-gene-flow models might be more applicable to widely distributed lineages. Here, we use five nuclear introns and the mitochondrial control region along with Bayesian models of isolation with migration to examine divergence, gene flow, and phylogenetic relationships within a cosmopolitan lineage comprising six species, the blue-winged ducks (genus Anas), which inhabit all continents except Antarctica. We found two primary sub-lineages, the globally-distributed shoveler group and the New World blue-winged/cinnamon teal group. The blue-winged/cinnamon sub-lineage is composed of sister taxa from North America and South America, and taxa with parapatric distributions are characterized by low to moderate levels of gene flow. In contrast, our data support strict allopatry for most comparisons within the shovelers. However, we found evidence of gene flow from the migratory, Holarctic northern shoveler (A. clypeata) and the more sedentary, African Cape shoveler (A. smithii) into the Australasian shoveler (A. rhynchotis), although we could not reject strict allopatry. Given the diverse mechanisms of speciation within this complex, the shovelers and blue-winged/cinnamon teals can serve as an effective model system for examining how the genome diverges under different evolutionary processes and how genetic variation is partitioned among highly dispersive taxa.

Journal of Avian Biology↗

USGS2016

Habitat selection by postbreeding female diving ducks: Influence of habitat attributes and conspecifics

Habitat selection studies of postbreeding waterfowl have rarely focused on within-wetland attributes such as water depth, escape cover, and food availability. Flightless waterfowl must balance habitat selection between avoiding predation risks and feeding. Reproductively successful female ducks face the greatest challenges because they begin the definitive prebasic molt at or near the end of brood rearing, when their body condition is at a low point. We assessed the relative importance of habitat attributes and group effects in habitat selection by postbreeding female lesser scaup Aythya affinis on a 2332-ha montane wetland complex during the peak flightless period (August) over seven years. Hypothesis-based habitat attributes included percent open water, open water:emergent edge density, water depth, percent flooded bare substrate, fetch (distance wind can travel unobstructed), group size, and several interactions representing functional responses to interannual variation in water levels. Surveys of uniquely marked females were conducted within randomly ordered survey blocks. We fitted two-part generalized linear mixed-effects models to counts of marked females within survey blocks, which allowed us to relate habitat attributes to relative probability of occurrence and, given the presence of a marked female, abundance of marked individuals. Postbreeding female scaup selected areas with water depths > 40 cm, large open areas, and intermediate edge densities but showed no relation to flooded bare substrate, suggesting their habitat preferences were more influenced by avoiding predation risks and disturbances than in meeting foraging needs. Grouping behavior by postbreeding scaup suggests habitat selection is influenced in part by behavioral components and/or social information, conferring energetic and survival benefits (predation and disturbance risks) but potentially also contributing to competition for food resources. This study demonstrates the importance of incorporating group effects and interannual variability in habitat conditions when investigating habitat selection, particularly for seasons when waterfowl are aggregated.

Journal of Avian Biology↗

USGS2017

Contrasting latitudinal patterns of life-history divergence in two genera of new world thrushes (Turdinae)

Several long-standing hypotheses have been proposed to explain latitudinal patterns of life-history strategies. Here, we test predictions of four such hypotheses (seasonality, food limitation, nest predation and adult survival probability) by examining life-history traits and age-specific mortality rates of several species of thrushes (Turdinae) based on field studies at temperate and tropical sites and data gathered from the literature. Thrushes in the genus Catharus showed the typical pattern of slower life-history strategies in the tropics while co-occuring Turdus thrushes differed much less across latitudes. Seasonality is a broadly accepted hypothesis for latitudinal patterns, but the lack of concordance in latitudinal patterns between co-existing genera that experience the same seasonal patterns suggests seasonality cannot fully explain latitudinal trait variation in thrushes. Nest-predation also could not explain patterns based on our field data and literature data for these two genera. Total feeding rates were similar, and per-nestling feeding rates were higher at tropical latitudes in both genera, suggesting food limitation does not explain trait differences in thrushes. Latitudinal patterns of life histories in these two genera were closely associated with adult survival probability. Thus, our data suggest that environmental influences on adult survival probability may play a particularly strong role in shaping latitudinal patterns of life-history traits.

Arizona↗

USGS2017

Songbirds are resilient to hurricane disturbed habitats during spring migration

The Gulf of Mexico is a conspicuous feature of the Neotropical–Nearctic bird migration system. Traveling long distances across ecological barriers comes with considerable risks, and mortality associated with intercontinental migration may be substantial, including that caused by storms or other adverse weather events. However, little, if anything, is known about how migratory birds respond to disturbance-induced changes in stopover habitat. Isolated, forested cheniere habitat along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico often concentrate migrants, during weather conditions unfavorable for northward movement or when birds are energetically stressed. We expected hurricane induced degradation of this habitat to negatively affect the abundance, propensity to stopover, and fueling trends of songbirds that stopover in coastal habitat. We used spring banding data collected in coastal Louisiana to compare migrant abundance and fueling trends before (1993–1996 and 1998–2005) and after hurricanes Rita (2006) and Ike (2009). We also characterized changes in vegetative structure before (1995) and after (2010) the hurricanes. The hurricanes caused dramatic changes to the vegetative structure, which likely decreased resources. Surprisingly, abundance, propensity to stopover, and fueling trends of most migrant species were not influenced by hurricane disturbance. Our results suggest that: 1) the function of chenieres as a refuge for migrants after completing a trans-Gulf flight may not have changed despite significant changes to habitat and decreases in resource availability, and 2) that most migrants may be able to cope with habitat disturbance during stopover. The fact that migrants use disturbed habitat points to their conservation value along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico.

Louisiana↗

USGS2017

Survivorship across the annual cycle of a migratory passerine, the willow flycatcher

Annual survivorship in migratory birds is a product of survival across the different periods of the annual cycle (i.e. breeding, wintering, and migration), and may vary substantially among these periods. Determining which periods have the highest mortality, and thus are potentially limiting a population, is important especially for species of conservation concern. To estimate survival probabilities of the willow flycatcher Empidonax traillii in each of the different periods, we combined demographic data from a 10-year breeding season study with that from a 5-year wintering grounds study. Estimates of annual apparent survival for breeding and wintering periods were nearly identical (65–66%), as were estimates of monthly apparent survival for both breeding and wintering stationary periods (98–99%). Because flycatchers spend at least half the year on the wintering grounds, overall apparent survivorship was lower (88%) on the wintering grounds than on the breeding grounds (97%). The migratory period had the highest mortality rate, accounting for 62% of the estimated annual mortality even though it comprises only one quarter or less of the annual cycle. The migratory period in the willow flycatcher and many other neotropical migrants is poorly understood, and further research is needed to identify sources of mortality during this crucial period.

Journal of Avian Biology↗

USGS2017

High altitude flights by ruddy shelduck Tadorna ferruginea during trans-Himalayan migrations

Birds that migrate across high altitude mountain ranges are faced with the challenge of maintaining vigorous exercise in environments with limited oxygen. Ruddy shelducks are known to use wintering grounds south of the Tibetan Plateau at sea level and breeding grounds north of Himalayan mountain range. Therefore, it is likely these shelducks are preforming high altitude migrations. In this study we analyse satellite telemetry data collected from 15 ruddy shelduck from two populations wintering south of the Tibetan Plateau from 2007 to 2011. During north and south migrations ruddy shelduck travelled 1481 km (range 548–2671 km) and 1238 km (range 548–2689 km) respectively. We find mean maximum altitudes of birds in flight reached 5590 m (range of means 4755–6800 m) and mean maximum climb rates of 0.45 m s –1 (range 0.23–0.74 m s –1 ). The ruddy shelduck is therefore an extreme high altitude migrant that has likely evolved a range of physiological adaptations in order to complete their migrations.

Journal of Avian Biology↗

USGS2018

Life‐history tradeoffs revealed by seasonal declines in reproductive traits of Arctic‐breeding shorebirds

Seasonal declines in breeding performance are widespread in wild animals, resulting from temporal changes in environmental conditions or from individual variation. Seasonal declines might drive selection for early breeding, with implications for other stages of the annual cycle. Alternatively, selection on the phenology of nonbreeding stages could constrain timing of the breeding season and lead to seasonal changes in reproductive performance. We studied 25 taxa of migratory shorebirds (including five subspecies) at 16 arctic sites in Russia, Alaska, and Canada. We investigated seasonal changes in four reproductive traits, and developed a novel Bayesian risk‐partitioning model of daily nest survival to examine seasonal trends in two causes of nest failure. We found strong seasonal declines in reproductive traits for a subset of species. The probability of laying a full four‐egg clutch declined by 8–78% in 12 of 25 taxa tested, daily nest survival rates declined by 1–12% in eight of 22 taxa, incubation duration declined by 2.0–2.5% in two of seven taxa, and mean egg volume declined by 5% in one of 15 taxa. Temporal changes were not fully explained by individual variation. Across all species, the proportion of failed nests that were depredated declined over the season from 0.98 to 0.60, while the proportion abandoned increased from 0.01 to 0.35 and drove the seasonal declines in nest survival. An increase in abandonment of late nests is consistent with a life‐history tradeoff whereby either adult mortality increased or adults deserted the breeding attempt to maximize adult survival. In turn, seasonal declines in clutch size and incubation duration might be adaptive to hasten hatching of later nests. In other species of shorebirds, we found no seasonal patterns in breeding performance, suggesting that some species are not subject to selective pressure for early breeding.

Journal of Avian Biology↗

USGS2018

Comparative nest survival of three sympatric loon species breeding in the Arctic

Identifying factors influencing nest survival among sympatric species is important for understanding and managing sources of variation in population dynamics of individual species. Three species of loons nest sympatrically in northern Alaska and differ in body size, life history characteristics, and population trends. We tested the effects of competition, nest site selection, and water level variations on nest survival of Pacific Gavia pacifica , yellow‐billed G. adamsii , and red‐throated loons G. stellata on the Arctic Coastal Plain in Alaska. Although overall nest survival rates did not differ between species, the factors influencing nest survival varied. Nest site selection influenced nest survival for Pacific and yellow‐billed loons, with both species having high nest survival when nesting on islands and peninsulas, likely due to a reduction in access by terrestrial predators. However, on mainland shorelines, Pacific loons had lower nest survival than yellow‐billed loons, and used a higher proportion of vegetation mats for nest sites suggesting that their smaller body size makes them less adept at nest defense. Nest site selection did not influence nest survival of red‐throated loons corresponding to our result of no nest site preferences by this species. Initiation date had a strong influence on nest survival for Pacific and yellow‐billed loons with nests laid earlier having higher survival. Pacific and yellow‐billed loon nests were susceptible to flooding due to precipitation, which contrasted with red‐throated loons that nest on smaller lakes with lower water level variations. Competition did not affect nest survival for any of the species likely due to most territorial encounters occurring prior to incubation. The only influence we found on red‐throated loon nest survival was differences among years. Our results indicate that loons chose nest sites based on predation risk and that factors influencing breeding success of closely related species may differ under similar breeding conditions.

Alaska↗

USGS2018

Density‐dependent and phenological mismatch effects on growth and survival in lesser snow and Ross's goslings

Strong seasonality of high‐latitude environments imposes temporal constraints on forage availability and quality for keystone herbivores in terrestrial arctic ecosystems, including hyper‐abundant colonial geese. Changes in food quality due to intraspecific competition, or food availability relative to the breeding phenology of birds, may have consequences for growth and survival of young. We used long‐term data (1993–2014) from the Karrak Lake nesting colony in the Canadian central arctic to study relative roles of density and phenological mismatch (i.e. days between seasonal peaks in vegetation quality and hatching) as drivers of annual variations in gosling survival among lesser snow Anser caerulescens caerulescens and Ross's geese A. rossii. Survival of Ross's goslings was consistently higher compared to snow geese. For both species, annual gosling survival was greatest when phenological mismatch was minimal and when nesting population size was low. We also examined gosling structural size (1999–2014) in relation to density and mismatch hypotheses to understand whether changes in survival were preceded by a parallel response in growth stemming from a density‐dependent effect on annual forage conditions. After controlling for sex, age and random effects of capture group and year × species, structural size of both snow and Ross's goslings was reduced in years when phenological mismatch was greater. However, there was no significant evidence that body size of goslings was negatively related to breeding population size at the colony. Our results lend support to the notion that both broad‐scale changes in seasonality from observed and predicted warming in the arctic and, to a lesser extent, density‐dependence on brood‐rearing areas may result in changes to offspring quality or survival, with implications for population recruitment.

Journal of Avian Biology↗