The modern Earth narrative: Natural and human history of the Earth
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Book chapter↗
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Status of natural and human environment
This report present the results of the 2017 AMAP Assessment of Adaptation Actions for a changing Arctic (AACA): Perspectives form the Bering-Chukchi-Beaufort Region. This is one of three pilot study regions included in the AACA project. AACA is the first AMAP assessment dealing with adaptation actions and how to meet possible Arctic futures in these times of rapid chance. Information contained in this report is fully referenced and based first and foremost on peer-reviewed and published results of research and monitoring undertaken within the past decade. Care has been taken to ensure that no critical probability statements are based on non-peer-reviewed materials Access to reliable and up-to-date information is essential for the development of science-based decision-making regarding ongoing changes in the Arctic and their global implications.
Bering-Chukchi-Beaufort region↗
Social and Economic Analysis Branch: integrating policy, social, economic, and natural science
The Fort Collins Science Center's Social and Economic Analysis Branch provides unique capabilities in the U.S. Geological Survey by leading projects that integrate social, behavioral, economic, and natural science in the context of human–natural resource interactions. Our research provides scientific understanding and support for the management and conservation of our natural resources in support of multiple agency missions. We focus on meeting the scientific needs of the Department of the Interior natural resource management bureaus in addition to fostering partnerships with other Federal and State managers to protect, restore, and enhance our environment. The Social and Economic Analysis Branch has an interdisciplinary group of scientists whose primary functions are to conduct both theoretical and applied social science research, provide technical assistance, and offer training to support the development of skills in natural resource management activities. Management and research issues associated with human-resource interactions typically occur in a unique context and require knowledge of both natural and social sciences, along with the skill to integrate multiple science disciplines. In response to these challenging contexts, Social and Economic Analysis Branch researchers apply a wide variety of social science concepts and methods which complement our rangeland/agricultural, wildlife, ecology, and biology capabilities. The goal of the Social and Economic Analysis Branch's research is to enhance natural-resource management, agency functions, policies, and decisionmaking.
Fact Sheet↗
A 1.2 billion pixel human-labeled dataset for data-driven classification of coastal environments
The world’s coastlines are spatially highly variable, coupled-human-natural systems that comprise a nested hierarchy of component landforms, ecosystems, and human interventions, each interacting over a range of space and time scales. Understanding and predicting coastline dynamics necessitates frequent observation from imaging sensors on remote sensing platforms. Machine Learning models that carry out supervised (i.e., human-guided) pixel-based classification, or image segmentation, have transformative applications in spatio-temporal mapping of dynamic environments, including transient coastal landforms, sediments, habitats, waterbodies, and water flows. However, these models require large and well-documented training and testing datasets consisting of labeled imagery. We describe “Coast Train,” a multi-labeler dataset of orthomosaic and satellite images of coastal environments and corresponding labels. These data include imagery that are diverse in space and time, and contain 1.2 billion labeled pixels, representing over 3.6 million hectares. We use a human-in-the-loop tool especially designed for rapid and reproducible Earth surface image segmentation. Our approach permits image labeling by multiple labelers, in turn enabling quantification of pixel-level agreement over individual and collections of images.
Scientific Data↗
Visioning ecologically diverse and harmonious futures of Korea in Good Anthropocene
1.The Korean Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), a buffer between North and South Korea, holds profound historical, cultural and ecological significance, as well as exceptional potential for conservation and transformation. This study explores ecologically diverse and peaceful futures for the Korean Peninsula by envisioning the DMZ as a landscape for harmonious human–nature co-existence. 2.Using the Nature Futures Framework ( NFF ) and the Seeds of Good Anthropocenes ( SoGA ) approach, we co-developed four ‘Living in Harmony with Nature’ visions that reflect diverse values and meanings of nature for sustainable and well-being oriented futures in Korea. 3.These visions emphasize balancing human activities with ecological integrity, reimagining the DMZ as a space for peace, restoration and shared stewardship. They express citizens' perspectives on aspirational and inclusive futures, highlighting existing initiatives as levers for change and intersectoral and interdisciplinary collaboration as key enabling conditions. 4.This visioning process demonstrates the role of the science-policy-society interface, diverse stakeholder engagement and integration of history, culture and social cohesion. This paper reflects on the lessons from this process and discusses implications for future scenario development—particularly how a whole-of-society approach can help identify policy options and societal transformations that advance nature–people-positive futures in Korea and beyond.
Korean Peninsula↗
Understanding the central Great Plains as a coupled climatic-hydrological-human system: Lessons learned in operationalizing interdisciplinary collaboration
This chapter discusses an interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary project to understand the interactions of agriculture, climate, and water resources in the Central Great Plains as a coupled natural-human system. We focus on the Smoky Hills Watershed in Kansas, where we gathered socioeconomic, hydrological, and climatic data, along with ecological data on fish species. The project involved substantial stakeholder engagement, which was complicated by post-truth attitudes about climate science and environmental regulation by some groups. We discuss the challenges of team management, stakeholder engagement, and data integration for modeling, notably the incorporation of stakeholder support for environmental policy in the context of extreme climatic events. We conclude by offering a framework for good collaborative practice to manage the complications of crossing boundaries in transdisciplinary research and outreach.
Kansas↗
Fort Collins Science Center- Policy Analysis and Science Assistance Branch : Integrating social, behavioral, economic and biological sciences
The Fort Collins Science Center's Policy Analysis and Science Assistance (PASA) Branch is a team of approximately 22 scientists, technicians, and graduate student researchers. PASA provides unique capabilities in the U.S. Geological Survey by leading projects that integrate social, behavioral, economic, and biological analyses in the context of human-natural resource interactions. Resource planners, managers, and policymakers in the U.S. Departments of the Interior (DOI) and Agriculture (USDA), State and local agencies, as well as international agencies use information from PASA studies to make informed natural resource management and policy decisions. PASA scientists' primary functions are to conduct both theoretical and applied social science research, provide technical assistance, and offer training to advance performance in policy relevant research areas. Management and research issues associated with human-resource interactions typically occur in a unique context, involve difficult to access populations, require knowledge of both natural/biological science in addition to social science, and require the skill to integrate multiple science disciplines. In response to these difficult contexts, PASA researchers apply traditional and state-of-the-art social science methods drawing from the fields of sociology, demography, economics, political science, communications, social-psychology, and applied industrial organization psychology. Social science methods work in concert with our rangeland/agricultural management, wildlife, ecology, and biology capabilities. The goal of PASA's research is to enhance natural resource management, agency functions, policies, and decision-making. Our research is organized into four broad areas of study.
Fact Sheet↗
Genetic tagging in the Anthropocene: Scaling ecology from alleles to ecosystems
The Anthropocene is an era of marked human impact on the world. Quantifying these impacts 51 has become central to understanding the dynamics of coupled human-natural systems, resource52 dependent livelihoods, and biodiversity conservation. Ecologists are facing growing pressure to 53 quantify the size, distribution, and trajectory of wild populations in a cost-effective and socially54 acceptable manner. Genetic tagging, combined with modern computational and genetic analyses, 55 is an under-utilized tool to meet this demand, especially for wide-ranging, elusive, sensitive, and 56 low-density species. Genetic tagging studies are now revealing unprecedented insight into the 57 mechanisms that control the density, trajectory, connectivity and human-wildlife conflict for 58 populations over vast spatial scales. Here we outline the application of, and ecological inferences 59 from, new analytical techniques applied to genetically-tagged individuals, contrast this approach 60 with conventional methods, and describe how genetic tagging can be better applied to address 61 outstanding questions in ecology. We provide example analyses using a long-term genetic 62 tagging dataset of grizzly bears in the Canadian Rockies. The genetic tagging toolbox is a 63 powerful and overlooked ensemble that ecologists and conservation biologists can leverage to 64 generate evidence and meet the challenges of the Anthropocene.
Ecological Applications↗
Toward a resilience-based conservation strategy for wetlands in Puerto Rico: Meeting challenges posed by environmental change
Designing conservation strategies in human-dominated landscapes is challenging, owing to complex human-natural systems and evolving societal values. To meet this challenge, a robust, adaptive strategy should have a process for flexible implementation of incremental actions. We describe a hypothetical example for the Rio Grande de Arecibo watershed and coastal wetlands in Puerto Rico to address the first component. The process begins by identifying shared stakeholder objectives. This process benefits from a review of foundational research and knowledge base that includes global forcings and vulnerability of resources of interest. Forcings include climate change and pervasive urban sprawl. We focus on two taxonomic groups with differing life histories but strong dependence on water resource dynamics, another resource valued by humans. We stipulate objectives and multiple actions, but focus on those pertaining to hydro-management as the common thread in our example. We advanced two decision contexts of contrasting complexity, illustrated links between objectives and actions, and highlighted trade-offs triggered by varying resource valuation. Our focus was to highlight various components necessary to frame a resilience-based strategy, but we cannot overemphasize the importance of accommodating institutional and stakeholder changing priorities and values to ensure its successful implementation.
Puerto Rico↗
Navigating the field of decision analysis
Managers, policy makers, and decision makers with responsibility for environmental decisions have an extraordinarily difficult job. The systems they manage are complex (coupled human-natural systems), with many dimensions and complicated dynamics. Our knowledge of how those systems respond to management actions is often limited, so many of the decisions have to be made in the face of uncertainty. The field of decision analysis provides a comprehensive set of tools for structuring, analyzing, and making decisions. Arising initially as a way to understand and manage risk, the field has expanded in the last 80 years to cover such topics as multipleobjective trade-offs, time-dependent linked decisions, the value of information, and competition among multiple decision makers. At the same time, cognitive psychologists and behavioural economists have studied human decisions to understand when our innate processes work and when they fail. Formal decision analysis is increasingly being used in many sectors, including economic, industrial, manufacturing, agricultural, transportation, and medical sectors, by individuals, corporations, non-profits, and government agencies. Occasional application of decision analysis to environmental decisions began in the mid-1970s, but the environmental science and management world was largely unaware of decision analysis until the late 1990s and early 2000s. (A major aim of the ARC Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions – CEED – was to better connect decision analysis and environmental management). Today, the field of environmental decision analysis is coming of age with the maturation of a rich set of tools to help decision makers frame, analyze, and implement decisions. Sometimes the wealth of tools is daunting, but there are core principles that tie decision analysis together. To help the reader navigate this complexity, we summarize the field of decision analysis in four key messages.
Decision Point Online↗
Alexandria's Eastern Harbor, Egypt: Pollen, microscopic charcoal, and the transition from natural to human-modified basin
Pollen and microscopic charcoal examined in Holocene sediment core samples record major environmental modifications affecting Alexandria's Eastern Harbor through time. We assess whether such changes on Egypt's coastal margin were influenced primarily by natural, or natural plus human, or primarily human factors. We focus on (1) the times when pollen assemblages and microscopic charcoal content changed in the core, (2) how they changed, and (3) why this occurred. The analysis takes into account the core's stratigraphy, regional climate variability, human history, and local archaeological record. Four pollenmicroscopic charcoal zones are identified. The earliest change occurred at ca. 6000 YBP, during Egypt's earlier Predynastic (Neolithic) period, coinciding with a lithologic break from sand to muddy sand. Pollen during this time indicates a transition to a much drier climate rather than effects of human activity. The second change in pollen occurred 3600-2900 YBP, during a period of continued aridity with no lithologic variation in this core interval. Pollen (cereal taxa, agricultural weeds, grape) and a sharp increase in microscopic charcoal indicate that human activity became prevalent at least 700 y before Alexander the Great's arrival in this region, and these results highlight the transition from a largely natural climatecontrolled environment to one influenced by both climate and anthropogenic activity. The third shift up-core in pollen assemblages is dated at ca. 2300 YBP, at the boundary between a sand and mud unit. It coincides with construction by the Ptolemies of the Heptastadion between Alexandria and Pharos Island. From this time onward, harbor sediment in the nearly enclosed catchment basin indicates a near-continuous record of dominant proximal human activity. ?? 2010 Coastal Education and Research Foundation.
Journal of Coastal Research↗
Hydrology: The interdisciplinary science of water
We live in a world where biophysical and social processes are tightly coupled. Hydrologic systems change in response to a variety of natural and human forces such as climate variability and change, water use and water infrastructure, and land cover change. In turn, changes in hydrologic systems impact socioeconomic, ecological, and climate systems at a number of scales, leading to a coevolution of these interlinked systems. The Harvard Water Program, Hydrosociology, Integrated Water Resources Management, Ecohydrology, Hydromorphology, and Sociohydrology were all introduced to provide distinct, interdisciplinary perspectives on water problems to address the contemporary dynamics of human interaction with the hydrosphere and the evolution of the Earth’s hydrologic systems. Each of them addresses scientific, social, and engineering challenges related to how humans influence water systems and vice versa. There are now numerous examples in the literature of how holistic approaches can provide a structure and vision of the future of hydrology. We review selected examples, which taken together, describe the type of theoretical and applied integrated hydrologic analyses and associated curricular content required to address the societal issue of water resources sustainability. We describe a modern interdisciplinary science of hydrology needed to develop an in-depth understanding of the dynamics of the connectedness between human and natural systems and to determine effective solutions to resolve the complex water problems that the world faces today. Nearly, every theoretical hydrologic model introduced previously is in need of revision to accommodate how climate, land, vegetation, and socioeconomic factors interact, change, and evolve over time.
Water Resources Research↗
Social–ecological landscape patterns predict woody encroachment from native tree plantings in a temperate grassland
Afforestation is often viewed as the purposeful planting of trees in historically nonforested grasslands, but an unintended consequence is woody encroachment, which should be considered part of the afforestation process. In North America's temperate grassland biome, Eastern redcedar ( Juniperus virginiana L.) is a native species used in tree plantings that aggressively invades in the absence of controlling processes. Cedar is a well-studied woody encroacher, but little is known about the degree to which cedar windbreaks, which are advocated for in agroforestry programs, are contributing to woody encroachment, what factors are associated with cedar spread from windbreaks, nor where encroachment from windbreaks is occurring in contemporary social–ecological landscapes. We used remotely sensed imagery to identify the presence and pattern of woody encroachment from windbreaks in the Nebraska Sandhills. We used multimodel inference to compare three classes of models representing three hypotheses about factors that could influence cedar spread: (a) windbreak models based on windbreak structure and design elements; (b) abiotic models focused on local environmental conditions; and (c) landscape models characterizing coupled human-natural features within the broader matrix. Woody encroachment was evident for 23% of sampled windbreaks in the Nebraska Sandhills. Of our candidate models, our inclusive landscape model carried 92% of the model weight. This model indicated that encroachment from windbreaks was more likely near roadways and less likely near farmsteads, other cedar plantings, and waterbodies, highlighting strong social ties to the distribution of woody encroachment from tree plantings across contemporary landscapes. Our model findings indicate where additional investments into cedar control can be prioritized to prevent cedar spread from windbreaks. This approach can serve as a model in other temperate regions to identify where woody encroachment resulting from temperate agroforestry programs is emerging.
Nebraska↗
Changes in suspended-sediment yields under divergent land-cover disturbance histories: A comparison of two large watersheds, Olympic Mountains, USA
Improvements in timber harvest practices and reductions in harvest volumes over the past half century are commonly presumed to have reduced sediment loads in many western US rivers. However, direct assessments in larger watersheds are relatively sparse. Here, we compare 2019–21 sediment concentrations against those of the late 1970s in the Bogachiel and Calawah River watersheds, adjacent and similarly sized (~300 km 2 ) basins in the western Olympic Mountains of Washington State. The Calawah River watershed has experienced significant land-cover disturbance, including a large 1951 fire, extensive post-fire salvage logging, and relatively high rates of timber harvest through the 1990s. In contrast, the Bogachiel River watershed did not burn, and experienced only modest timber harvest that largely post-dated 1970s sediment monitoring. Channel-width trends suggest the Calawah River was still recovering from 1950s disturbances in the late 1970s. We found that 2019–21 suspended-sediment loads in the Calawah River were 2.3–2.6 times lower than would have been expected based on 1970s sediment rating curves, while recent loads in the Bogachiel River were a factor of 1.4 ± 1.0 lower. We consider the plausibility and possible explanations of declining concentrations in the less-disturbed Bogachiel River. Suspended-sediment yields in the Bogachiel River were two times higher than yields in the Calawah River, which is attributed to a combination of modestly higher precipitation, more efficient runoff generation, and more extensive and erodible Quaternary valley fills in the Bogachiel River. Regional shifts in flood hydrology have also influenced suspended-sediment loads in both watersheds. Our results then document a significant decline in suspended-sediment concentrations in the Calawah River over the past half century. Reduced land-cover disturbance provides the simplest and most likely explanation for this decline, though the wide range of possible concentration changes in the Bogachiel River leaves open possibilities that other processes (human, natural, or methodologic) could be a factor.
Washington↗
Drought and fire in the western USA: Is climate attribution enough?
Purpose of Review I sought to review the contributions of recent literature and prior foundational papers to our understanding of drought and fire. In this review, I summarize recent literature on drought and fire in the western USA and discuss research directions that may increase the utility of that body of work for twenty-first century application. I then describe gaps in the synthetic knowledge of drought-driven fire in managed ecosystems and use concepts from use-inspired research to describe potentially useful extensions of current work. Recent Findings Fire responses to climate, and specifically various kinds of drought, are clear, but vary widely with fuel responses to surplus water and drought at different timescales. Ecological and physical factors interact with human management and ignitions to create fire regime and landscape trajectories that challenge prediction. Summary The mechanisms by which the climate system affects regional droughts and how they translate to fire in the western USA need more attention to accelerate both forecasting and adaptation. However, projections of future fire activity under climate change will require integrated advances on both fronts to achieve decision-relevant modeling. Concepts from transdisciplinary research and coupled human-natural systems can help frame strategic work to address fire in a changing world.
Current Climate Change Reports↗
Mapping burned areas using dense time-series of Landsat data
Complete and accurate burned area data are needed to document patterns of fires, to quantify relationships between the patterns and drivers of fire occurrence, and to assess the impacts of fires on human and natural systems. Unfortunately, in many areas existing fire occurrence datasets are known to be incomplete. Consequently, the need to systematically collect burned area information has been recognized by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which have both called for the production of essential climate variables (ECVs), including information about burned area. In this paper, we present an algorithm that identifies burned areas in dense time-series of Landsat data to produce the Landsat Burned Area Essential Climate Variable (BAECV) products. The algorithm uses gradient boosted regression models to generate burn probability surfaces using band values and spectral indices from individual Landsat scenes, lagged reference conditions, and change metrics between the scene and reference predictors. Burn classifications are generated from the burn probability surfaces using pixel-level thresholding in combination with a region growing process. The algorithm can be applied anywhere Landsat and training data are available. For this study, BAECV products were generated for the conterminous United States from 1984 through 2015. These products consist of pixel-level burn probabilities for each Landsat scene, in addition to, annual composites including: the maximum burn probability and a burn classification. We compared the BAECV burn classification products to the existing Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED; 1997–2015) and Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS; 1984–2013) data. We found that the BAECV products mapped 36% more burned area than the GFED and 116% more burned area than MTBS. Differences between the BAECV products and the GFED were especially high in the West and East where the BAECV products mapped 32% and 88% more burned area, respectively. However, the BAECV products found less burned area than the GFED in regions with frequent agricultural fires. Compared to the MTBS data, the BAECV products identified 31% more burned area in the West, 312% more in the Great Plains, and 233% more in the East. Most pixels in the MTBS data were detected by the BAECV, regardless of burn severity. The BAECV products document patterns of fire similar to those in the GFED but also showed patterns of fire that are not well characterized by the existing MTBS data. We anticipate the BAECV products will be useful to studies that seek to understand past patterns of fire occurrence, the drivers that created them, and the impacts fires have on natural and human systems.
continental United States↗
Temporal variability in nitrate – discharge relationships in large rivers as revealed by high frequency data
Little is known about temporal variability in nitrate concentration responses to changes in discharge on intraannual time scales in large rivers. To investigate this knowledge gap, we used a six‐year data set of daily surface water nitrate concentration and discharge averaged from near‐continuous monitoring at U.S. Geological Survey gaging stations on the Connecticut, Potomac, and Mississippi Rivers, three large rivers that contribute substantial nutrient pollution to important estuaries. Interannually, a comparison of nitrate concentration‐discharge (c‐Q) relationships between a traditional discrete grab sample data set and the near‐continuous data set revealed differing c‐Q slopes, which suggests that sample frequency can impact how we ultimately characterize hydrologic systems. Intraannually, we conducted correlation analyses over 30‐day windows to isolate the strength and direction of monthly c‐Q relationships. Monthly c‐Q slopes in the Potomac were positive (enrichment/mobilization response) in summer and fall and negative (dilution response) and weakly chemostatic (nonsignificant near‐zero c‐Q slope) in winter and spring, respectively. The Connecticut displayed a dilution response year‐round, except summer when it was weakly chemostatic. Mississippi c‐Q slopes were weakly chemostatic in all seasons and showed inconsistent responses to discharge fluctuations. The c‐Q dynamics in the Potomac and Connecticut were correlated ( R > 0.3) to river temperature, flow percentile, and calendar day. Minimal correlation in the Mississippi suggests that the large basin area coupled with spatiotemporally variable anthropogenic forcings from substantial land use development created stochastic short‐term c‐Q relationships. Additional work using high‐frequency sensors across large river networks can improve our understanding of spatial source input dynamics in these natural‐human coupled systems.
Water Resources Research↗
Advancing sustainable groundwater management with a hydro-economic system model: Investigations in the Harney Basin, Oregon
Groundwater resources frequently trend toward unsustainable levels because, absent effective institutions, individual water users generally act independently without considering the impacts on other users. Hydro-economic models (HEMs) of human-natural systems can play a positive role toward successful groundwater management by yielding valuable knowledge and insight. The current study explores how an HEM that captures essential physical and economic characteristics of a system can shed light on the system's processes and dynamics to benefit stakeholders, managers, and also researchers. These propositions are illustrated using the Harney Basin, Oregon, which has seen large groundwater declines in the past 20 years. The HEM shows that: (a) although current groundwater pumping rates will gradually raise costs and reduce well yields, irrigators gain the highest aggregate economic return by continuing current pumping; (b) lowland areas of the basin are hydrologically connected, which limits the efficacy of remedies focused on regulations only in some portions of the basin; (c) community expectations regarding the efficacy of several proposed solutions are overly optimistic; and (d) the study's scenarios identify interventions that would stabilize the groundwater system and prevent additional adverse impacts on residential and livestock wells and groundwater-dependent ecosystems. These interventions would require limiting groundwater pumping by nearly half and reducing annual profits by $7.5–$9.0M. The HEM also demonstrated its value to researchers: its insights shifted attention toward questions about Oregon's existing groundwater institutions and their inability to adaptively manage the transition from abundant groundwater to scarce groundwater in a timely manner.
Oregon↗