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Assessing future risks to agricultural productivity, water resources and food security: How can remote sensing help?

Although global food production has been rising, the world sti ll faces a major food security challenge. Over one billion people are currently undernourished (Wheeler and Kay, 2010). By the 2050s, the human population is projected to grow to 9.1 billion. Over three-quarters of these people will be living in developing countries, in regions that already lack the capacity to feed their populations . Under current agricultural practices, the increased demand for food would require in excess of one billion hectares of new cropland, nearly equivalent to the land area of the United States, and would lead to significant increases in greenhouse gases (Tillman et al. , 2011). Since climate is the primary determinant of agricultural productivity, changes to it will influence not only crop yields, but also hydrologic balances and supplies of inputs to managed farming systems, and may lead to a shift in the geographic location of some crops . Therefore, not only must crop productivity (yield per unit of land; kg/m 2 ) increase, but water productivity (yield per unit of water or "crop per drop"; kg/m 3 ) must increase as well in order to feed a burgeoning population against a backdrop of changing dietary consumption patterns, a changing climate and the growing scarcity of water and land (Beddington, 2010). The impact from these changes wi ll affect the viability of both dryland subsistence and irrigated commodity food production (Knox, et al. , 2010a). Since climate is a primary determinant of agricultural productivity, any changes will influence not only crop yields, but also the hydrologic balances, and supplies of inputs to managed farming systems as well as potentially shifting the geographic location for specific crops . Unless concerted and collective action is taken, society risks worldwide food shortages, scarcity of water resources and insufficient energy. This has the potential to unleash public unrest, cross-border conflicts and migration as people flee the worst-affected regions to seck refuge in "safe havens", a situation that Beddington described as the "perfect storm" (2010).

Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing

Global cropland-extent product at 30-m resolution (GCEP30) derived from Landsat satellite time-series data for the year 2015 using multiple machine-learning algorithms on Google Earth Engine cloud

Executive Summary Global food and water security analysis and management require precise and accurate global cropland-extent maps. Existing maps have limitations, in that they are (1) mapped using coarse-resolution remote-sensing data, resulting in the lack of precise mapping location of croplands and their accuracies; (2) derived by collecting and collating national statistical data that are often subjective, leading to substantial uncertainties in cropland-area estimates, as well as their locations; and (3) extracted from one or more classes of a land use–land cover product in which cropland classes are not the focus of mapping, leading to their mixing with other classes and creating significant errors of omission and commission. These limitations can be overcome by producing high-resolution cropland-extent maps using satellite-sensor data, such as Landsat 30-m resolution or higher. The most fundamental cropland product is the high-resolution cropland-extent map because all higher level cropland products, such as crop-watering method (that is, whether crops are irrigated or rainfed), crop types, cropping intensities, cropland fallows, crop productivity, and crop-water productivity, are dependent on a precise and accurate cropland-extent product. Given these realities, the overarching goal of this study was to produce a Landsat satellite-derived global cropland-extent product at 30-m resolution. The work, which involved a paradigm shift in how global cropland-extent maps are produced, involved the following five key steps: (1) petabyte-scale computing that involved multiyear, 8- to 16-day, time-series Landsat 30-m resolution data for the global land surface; (2) composition of analysis-ready data (ARD) cubes; (3) creation of a large global-reference data hub for machine learning; (4) use of multiple machine-learning algorithms (MLAs) by writing software and computing in the cloud; and (5) Google Earth Engine (GEE) cloud computing. The five key steps involved nine distinct phases. First, the world was segmented into 74 agroecological zones (AEZs). Second, Landsat 8- to 16-day data were used to time-composite 10-band (blue, green, red, near-infrared, short-wave infrared band 1, short-wave infrared band 2, thermal infrared, enhanced vegetation index, normalized difference water index, and normalized difference vegetation index) Landsat 30-m resolution data cubes for every 2- to 4-month time period during 3- to 4-year periods (stated as nominal-year 2015 or, simply, 2015), along with two additional 30-m resolution bands (Shuttle Radar Topography Mission elevation, and slope) in each of the 74 AEZs. Third, more than 100,000 reference-training data samples were collected using ground data (some of which were collected using a mobile application), as well as submeter- to 5-m-resolution, very high-resolution imagery sourced from other reliable sources. Fourth, reference-training data were used to create a knowledge base for separating cropland from noncropland. Fifth, MLAs such as the pixel-based supervised random forest and support-vector machines were written on the GEE using Python and JavaScript. Sixth, object-based recursive hierarchical segmentation algorithm was used, in addition to MLAs, to overcome uncertainties. Seventh, MLAs used the knowledge base to classify and separate cropland from noncropland. Eighth, accuracy assessment was conducted by generating error matrices for each of the 74 AEZs using 19,171 independent validation-data samples. Ninth, cropland areas were computed for all countries of the world and compared with United Nation’s (UN’s) Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) and other national statistics. The outcome was a Landsat-derived global cropland-extent product at 30-m resolution (GCEP30), which has an overall accuracy of 91.7 percent. For the cropland class, producer’s accuracy was 83.4 percent, and user’s accuracy was 78.3 percent. GCEP30 calculated (using direct pixel count) the global net-cropland area (GNCA) for the year 2015 as 1.873 billion hectares (~12.6 percent of the Earth’s terrestrial area). The continental cropland distribution as a percentage of GNCA was Asia, 33 percent; Europe, 25.5 percent; Africa, 16.7 percent; North America, 14.4 percent; South America, 8.1 percent; and Australia and Oceania, 2.4 percent. The worldwide cropland areas in GCEP30 for 2015 were higher by 236 to 299 million hectares (Mha) compared to national statistics reported elsewhere for the same year (for example, in Food and Agriculture Organization’s corporate statistical database [FAOSTAT] and in the monthly irrigated and rainfed crop areas [MIRCA] database). The global cropland area reported for 2015 increased by 344 Mha (22.5 percent), compared to the year 2000. During the same period (2000–2015), the world’s population increased by 20 percent. Whereas some of these areal increases are real increases in cropland areas, others are due to the types of data, methods, and approaches used. Using the highest known resolution (compared to previous coarse-resolution global products) enabled this study to capture fragmented croplands. Coarse-resolution data compute areas on the basis of subpixels, which, for a large proportion of certain land use–land cover classes, will show only a certain percentage of the total pixel area as actual area. Subpixel areas can lead to substantial uncertainties in area computation, as determining the exact fraction of cropland areas within a coarse-resolution pixel is resource intensive and subject to errors. Other innovations in GCEP30 include reference-data hubs, machine learning, and cloud computing. Cropland areas in 214 countries, territories, departments, and regions were calculated for the year 2015 using GCEP30, on the basis of UN’s global administrative unit layers (GAUL) boundaries. The 10 leading countries in terms of cropland area (as a percentage of the GNCA) were India (9.6 percent), United States (8.95 percent), China (8.82 percent), Russia (8.32 percent), Brazil (3.42 percent), Ukraine (2.32 percent), Canada (2.29 percent), Argentina (2.05 percent), Indonesia (2 percent), and Nigeria (1.91 percent). Together, these 10 countries occupy 50 percent of the global cropland, and they have 52 percent of the global population. Their combined cropland area increased by 2 percent between 2000 and 2015, compared to the substantial increase in population of 517 million (15.5 percent). Together, India, United States, China, and Russia encompass 36 percent of the total area. In the United States and Canada, from 2000 to 2015, cropland decreased by about 2 percent, whereas their populations increased by 14 and 13 percent, respectively. The additional food requirements in these 10 countries, which are caused by increased populations, as well as increasing nutritional demands, are met by production increases in existing cropland or through virtual food trade, or both. More than 18 countries, territories, departments, or regions had 60 percent or more of their geographic area as cropland: Republic of Moldova, San Marino, and Hungary had more than 80 percent of the country’s area as cropland; Denmark, Ukraine, Ireland, and Bangladesh, 70 to 80 percent; and Uruguay, Netherlands, United Kingdom, Spain, Lithuania, Poland, Gaza Strip, Czechia, Italy, India, and Azerbaijan, 60 to 70 percent. Europe and South Asia can be considered agricultural capitals of the world, on the basis of their percentages of geographic area as cropland. United States, China, and Russia, which all have high cropland areas, are ranked second, third, and fourth in the world; India is ranked first. However, the amount of cropland as a percentage of the country’s geographic area is relatively very low for United States (18.3 percent), China (17.7 percent), and Russia (9.5 percent), whereas it is 60.5 percent for India. Most African and South American countries, territories, departments, or regions have less than 15 percent of their geographic area as cropland. China and India together house 36 percent of the world’s population; however, between 2000 and 2015, the amount of China’s cropland area fell by 18.9 percent, owing to urban expansion and the abandonment of farmlands caused by demographic changes (that is, the movement of population from villages to cities). In contrast, China’s population grew by 10 percent. The amount of India’s cropland increased by 8.5 percent, whereas its population grew by 20 percent. This study showed that, out of the 10 leading cropland countries, Ukraine, Nigeria, Russia, and Indonesia showed an 18 to 31 percent increase in cropland areas, on the basis of GCEP30 by the year 2015, compared to 2000. Nigeria’s cropland area increased by 25 percent, and its population increased by 31 percent in the same period. In these countries, food security is maintained by cropland expansion, productivity increases, and virtual food trade. Nevertheless, this trend of increasing net-cropland area and productivity will likely become difficult to maintain, owing to diminishing arable lands and plateauing of 50 years of continual yield increases, requiring policymakers to explore novel and data-supported approaches to solving future food security issues. The GCEP30 product, which can be browsed at full resolution at www.croplands.org , has been released for public download and use through U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)–National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Land Processes Distributed Active Archive Center (see https://lpdaac.usgs.gov/news/release-of-gfsad-30-meter-cropland-extent-products/ ).

Professional Paper

Landsat-derived rainfed and irrigated-area product for conterminous United States for the year 2020 (LRIP30 CONUS 2020) using supervised and unsupervised machine learning on the cloud

Accurate maps of irrigated and rainfed croplands are crucial for assessing global food and water security. Irrigated croplands yield two to four times more grain and biomass than rainfed croplands. To meet rising food demand, the proportion of cropland that is irrigated must be increased globally. Because agriculture uses 80% to 90% of global fresh water, understanding changes in cropland extent, crop type, and irrigation is critical for meeting nutritional needs sustainably. The United States has one of the most productive rainfed and irrigated croplands in the world and is a leading producer and exporter of agricultural crops. Precise maps of irrigated and rainfed croplands in the United States are crucial for assessing the current and the future agricultural production capacity in supporting food security. We developed a 30-m resolution rainfed and irrigated area map for the conterminous United States derived from 2019 to 2021 multi-date Landsat-8 data (LRIP30 CONUS 2020). A total of 96 harmonized spectral bands comprising monthly median value composites of eight bands (blue, green, red, NIR, SWIR1, SWIR2, TIR, and enhanced vegetation index [EVI]) were used. A cropland mask was then applied, and reference data were sourced from various sources. A pixel based supervised random forest classifier, and pixel based unsupervised ISODATA clustering classifier were implemented on Google Earth Engine and the ERDAS Imagine workstation to classify, identify, map, and assess accuracies of irrigated and rainfed cropland areas. The LRIP30 CONUS 2020 product achieved an overall accuracy of 93.9%. The irrigated and rainfed classes had producer's accuracies of 90.2% and 95.7%, respectively, and user's accuracies of 90.8% and 95.4%, respectively. The total net cropland area was estimated at 139.4 million hectares (Mha), of which 94.9 Mha (68%) was classified as rainfed and 44.5 Mha (32%) was classified as irrigated. State level summaries highlight regional differences and their implications for national and global food and water security.

conterminous United States

Global trends in emerging viral diseases of wildlife origin

Fifty years ago, infectious diseases were rarely considered threats to wildlife populations, and the study of wildlife diseases was largely a neglected endeavor. Furthermore, public health leaders at that time had declared that “it is time to close the book on infectious diseases and the war against pestilence won,” a quote attributed to Dr. William H. Stewart in 1967. There is some debate whether he actually said these words; however, they reflect the widespread belief at that time (Spellberg, 2008). Leap forward to today, and the book on infectious diseases has been dusted off. There is general consensus that the global environment favors the emergence of infectious diseases, and in particular, diseases of wildlife origin (Taylor et al., 2001). Examples of drivers of these infectious diseases include climate and landscape changes, human demographic and behavior changes, global travel and trade, microbial adaptation, and lack of appropriate infrastructure for wildlife disease control and prevention (Daszak et al., 2001). The consequences of these emerging diseases are global and profound with increased burden on the public health system, negative impacts on the global economy and food security, declines and extinctions of wildlife species, and subsequent loss of ecosystem integrity. For example, 35 million people are currently living with HIV infection globally (http://www.who.int/gho/hiv/en); 400 million poultry have been culled since 2003 as a result of efforts to control highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza (http://www.fao.org/avianflu/en/index.html), and there are increasing biological and ecological consequences. Examples of health threats to biodiversity include the “spillover” of human diseases to great ape populations (Köndgen et al., 2008), the near-extirpation of the black-footed ferret from canine distemper and sylvatic plague (for a review see Abbott et al., 2012), and threats to Hawaiian forest birds from introduced pathogens such as avian malaria and avian pox (van Riper et al., 1986, 2002). There are also newly discovered pathogens or diseases that have resulted in population declines, and global extinctions of several species. Examples include Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, which causes a cutaneous fungal infection of amphibians and is linked to declines of amphibians globally (Kriger and Hero, 2009); and recently discovered Pseudogymnoascus (Geomyces) destructans, the etiologic agent of white-nose syndrome (WNS), which has caused precipitous declines of North American bat species (Blehert et al., 2009). Furthermore, there is increasing evidence of the subsequent impacts on human and ecosystem health; for example, increasing risk of exposure to Lyme disease as a consequence of decreased biodiversity (LoGiudice et al., 2003) as well as the economic cost of the loss of bats due to decreased insect control services (Boyles et al., 2011). Figure A12-1 is a timeline of important diseases investigated by the U.S. Geological Survey since the 1970s, which illustrates three factors: 1. The unprecedented emergence of new pathogens and geographic spread of known pathogens since the 1990s; 2. Diseases are increasingly causing large-scale, negative impacts on wildlife populations and spreading over larger geographic areas rather than remaining localized; and 3. Diseases are increasingly of concern for multiple sectors, including public health, agriculture and wildlife management agencies. Of increasing concern are these novel diseases such as WNS as they are hard to anticipate, particularly devastating to human health or wildlife populations, challenging to manage, spread over large geographic areas in short time periods, and may result in ecological ripple effects that are difficult to predict. The following article provides examples of recently emerged viral diseases of wildlife origin. The examples have been selected to illustrate the drivers of emerging viral diseases, both novel pathogens and previously known diseases, the impacts of these diseases, as well as the role of wildlife both as “villains” or reservoirs as well as “victims” of these viral diseases. The article also discusses potential management strategies for emerging viral diseases in wildlife populations and future science directions in wildlife health to prevent, prepare, respond to, and recover from these disease events. Finally, the concept of One Health and its potential role in developing solutions to these issues of mutual concern is discussed.

Conference Paper

Artificial neural network multilayer perceptron models to classify California’s crops using Harmonized Landsat Sentinel (HLS) data

Advances in remote sensing and machine learning are enhancing cropland classification, vital for global food and water security. We used multispectral Harmonized Landsat 8 Sentinel-2 (HLS) 30-m data in an artificial neural network (ANN) multi-layer perceptron (MLP) model to classify five crop classes (cotton, alfalfa, tree crops, grapes, and others) in California's Central Valley. The ANN MLP model, trained on 2021 data from the United States Department of Agriculture's Cropland Data Layer, was validated by classifying crops for an independent year, 2022. Across the five crop classes, the overall accuracy was 74%. Producer's and user's accuracies ranged from 65% to 87%, with cotton achieving the highest accuracies. The study highlights the potential of using deep learning with HLS time series data for accurate global crop classification.

California

A 30-m landsat-derived cropland extent product of Australia and China using random forest machine learning algorithm on Google Earth Engine cloud computing platform

Mapping high resolution (30-m or better) cropland extent over very large areas such as continents or large countries or regions accurately, precisely, repeatedly, and rapidly is of great importance for addressing the global food and water security challenges. Such cropland extent products capture individual farm fields, small or large, and are crucial for developing accurate higher-level cropland products such as cropping intensities, crop types, crop watering methods (irrigated or rainfed), crop productivity, and crop water productivity. It also brings many challenges that include handling massively large data volumes, computing power, and collecting resource intensive reference training and validation data over complex geographic and political boundaries. Thereby, this study developed a precise and accurate Landsat 30-m derived cropland extent product for two very important, distinct, diverse, and large countries: Australia and China. The study used of eight bands (blue, green, red, NIR, SWIR1, SWIR2, TIR1, and NDVI) of Landsat-8 every 16-day Operational Land Imager (OLI) data for the years 2013–2015. The classification was performed by using a pixel-based supervised random forest (RF) machine learning algorithm (MLA) executed on the Google Earth Engine (GEE) cloud computing platform. Each band was time-composited over 4–6 time-periods over a year using median value for various agro-ecological zones (AEZs) of Australia and China. This resulted in a 32–48-layer mega-file data-cube (MFDC) for each of the AEZs. Reference training and validation data were gathered from: (a) field visits, (b) sub-meter to 5-m very high spatial resolution imagery (VHRI) data, and (c) ancillary sources such as from the National agriculture bureaus. Croplands versus non-croplands knowledge base for training the RF algorithm were derived from MFDC using 958 reference-training samples for Australia and 2130 reference-training samples for China. The resulting 30-m cropland extent product was assessed for accuracies using independent validation samples: 900 for Australia and 1972 for China. The 30-m cropland extent product of Australia showed an overall accuracy of 97.6% with a producer’s accuracy of 98.8% (errors of omissions = 1.2%), and user’s accuracy of 79% (errors of commissions = 21%) for the cropland class. For China, overall accuracies were 94% with a producer’s accuracy of 80% (errors of omissions = 20%), and user’s accuracy of 84.2% (errors of commissions = 15.8%) for cropland class. Total cropland areas of Australia were estimated as 35.1 million hectares and 165.2 million hectares for China. These estimates were higher by 8.6% for Australia and 3.9% for China when compared with the traditionally derived national statistics. The cropland extent product further demonstrated the ability to estimate sub-national cropland areas accurately by providing an R 2 value of 0.85 when compared with province-wise cropland areas of China. The study provides a paradigm-shift on how cropland maps are produced using multi-date remote sensing. These products can be browsed at www.croplands.org and made available for download at NASA’s Land Processes Distributed Active Archive Center (LP DAAC) https://www.lpdaac.usgs.gov/node/1282 .

ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing

Ground water and climate change

As the world's largest distributed store of fresh water, ground water plays a central part in sustaining ecosystems and enabling human adaptation to climate variability and change. The strategic importance of ground water for global water and food security will probably intensify under climate change as more frequent and intense climate extremes (droughts and floods) increase variability in precipitation, soil moisture and surface water. Here we critically review recent research assessing the impacts of climate on ground water through natural and human-induced processes as well as through groundwater-driven feedbacks on the climate system. Furthermore, we examine the possible opportunities and challenges of using and sustaining groundwater resources in climate adaptation strategies, and highlight the lack of groundwater observations, which, at present, limits our understanding of the dynamic relationship between ground water and climate.

Nature Climate Change

Inland recreational fisheries harvest far exceeds reported inland harvest in the United States

Recreational fisheries are important global contributors to food security, socio-cultural practices, and local and regional economies. However, inland recreational fisheries are often overlooked by policymakers due to a limited understanding of the magnitude of participation, harvest, and economic impact. Here, we used the U.S. Inland Creel and Angler Survey Catalog and catch and effort model (CreelCatch) and several assumptions to provide an initial estimate of the magnitude of total inland recreational fisheries harvest in the conterminous USA. The CreelCatch model projected fishing harvest across lakes, ponds, and reservoirs based on fishing effort, water body area, and regional effects. We estimated that recreational lake fisheries in the conterminous USA likely harvest 236,000–671,000 tonnes of fish per year, 17–48 times greater than total inland fisheries harvest reported to the United Nations. Inland recreational fisheries may warrant greater consideration for their contribution to national scale socioeconomics and impacts on fish stocks and ecosystems.

conterminous United States

Epidemic growth rates and host movement patterns shape management performance for pathogen spillover at the wildlife-livestock interface

Managing pathogen spillover at the wildlife–livestock interface is a key step towards improving global animal health, food security and wildlife conservation. However, predicting the effectiveness of management actions across host–pathogen systems with different life histories is an on-going challenge since data on intervention effectiveness are expensive to collect and results are system-specific. We developed a simulation model to explore how the efficacies of different management strategies vary according to host movement patterns and epidemic growth rates. The model suggested that fast-growing, fast-moving epidemics like avian influenza were best-managed with actions like biosecurity or containment, which limited and localized overall spillover risk. For fast-growing, slower-moving diseases like foot-and-mouth disease, depopulation or prophylactic vaccination were competitive management options. Many actions performed competitively when epidemics grew slowly and host movements were limited, and how management efficacy related to epidemic growth rate or host movement propensity depended on what objective was used to evaluate management performance. This framework offers one means of classifying and prioritizing responses to novel pathogen spillover threats, and evaluating current management actions for pathogens emerging at the wildlife–livestock interface.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A:

Machine learning and new-generation spaceborne hyperspectral data advance crop type mapping

Hyperspectral sensors provide near-continuous spectral data that can facilitate advancements in agricultural crop classification and characterization, which are important for addressing global food and water security issues. We investigated two new-generation hyperspectral sensors, Germany’s Deutsches Zentrum für Luft‐ und Raumfahrt Earth Sensing Imaging Spectrometer (DESIS) and Italy’s PRecursore IperSpettrale della Missione Applicativa (PRISMA), within California's Central Valley in August 2021 focusing on five irrigated agricultural crops (alfalfa, almonds, corn, grapes, and pistachios). With reference data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture Cropland Data Layer, we developed a spectral library of the crops and classified them using three machine learning algorithms (support vector machines [SVM], random forest [RF], and spectral angle mapper [SAM]) and two philosophies: 1. Full spectral analysis (FSA) and 2. Optimal hyperspectral narrowband (OHNB) analysis. For FSA, we used 59 DESIS four-bin product bands and 207 of 238 PRISMA bands. For OHNB analysis, 9 DESIS and 16 PRISMA nonredundant OHNBs for studying crops were selected. FSA achieved only 1% to 3% higher accuracies relative to OHNB analysis in most cases. SVM provided the best results, closely followed by RF. Using both DESIS and PRISMA image OHNBs in SVM for classification led to higher accuracy than using either image alone, with an overall accuracy of 99%, producer’s accuracies of 94% to 100%, and user's accuracies of 95% to 100%.

California

Classifying crop types using two generations of hyperspectral sensors (Hyperion and DESIS) with machine learning on the cloud

Advances in spaceborne hyperspectral (HS) remote sensing, cloud-computing, and machine learning can help measure, model, map and monitor agricultural crops to address global food and water security issues, such as by providing accurate estimates of crop area and yield to model agricultural productivity. Leveraging these advances, we used the Earth Observing-1 (EO-1) Hyperion historical archive and the new generation DLR Earth Sensing Imaging Spectrometer (DESIS) data to evaluate the performance of hyperspectral narrowbands in classifying major agricultural crops of the U.S. with machine learning (ML) on Google Earth Engine (GEE). EO-1 Hyperion images from the 2010–2013 growing seasons and DESIS images from the 2019 growing season were used to classify three world crops (corn, soybean, and winter wheat) along with other crops and non-crops near Ponca City, Oklahoma, USA. The supervised classification algorithms: Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Naive Bayes (NB), and the unsupervised clustering algorithm WekaXMeans (WXM) were run using selected optimal Hyperion and DESIS HS narrowbands (HNBs). RF and SVM returned the highest overall producer’s, and user’s accuracies, with the performances of NB and WXM being substantially lower. The best accuracies were achieved with two or three images throughout the growing season, especially a combination of an earlier month (June or July) and a later month (August or September). The narrow 2.55 nm bandwidth of DESIS provided numerous spectral features along the 400–1000 nm spectral range relative to smoother Hyperion spectral signatures with 10 nm bandwidth in the 400–2500 nm spectral range. Out of 235 DESIS HNBs, 29 were deemed optimal for agricultural study. Advances in ML and cloud-computing can greatly facilitate HS data analysis, especially as more HS datasets, tools, and algorithms become available on the Cloud.

Remote Sensing

Comparing DESIS hyperspectral and Landsat 10 simulated superspectral data for crop type classification in California's Central Valley

To advance crop type mapping in support of global food and water security, this study compared three spectral configurations: (A) the full 60-band DLR Earth Sensing Imaging Spectrometer (DESIS) hyperspectral narrowband (HNB) dataset, (B) a 14-band subset of DESIS-derived HNBs aligned with the planned Landsat 10 (formerly Landsat Next) spectral configuration (400–1000 nm), and (C) DESIS-based simulations of Landsat 10 superspectral broadbands. The analysis was conducted in California’s Central Valley, hereafter referred to as “the Central Valley”, during the peak growing month of August. DESIS imagery from August 2021, 2022, and 2023 was used sequentially for model development, testing, and independent validation. Over these three years, DESIS provided extensive hyperspectral coverage of much of the 4 million hectares in the Central Valley’s. Analyses were performed on Google Earth Engine using two pixel-based supervised classifiers, Random Forest (RF) and Support Vector Machine (SVM), to differentiate three major crop classes: row crops, grapes and tree crops, and winter wheat/fallow/other. The highest overall accuracy (86%) was achieved using SVM in combination with either the full DESIS hyperspectral dataset or the 14 DESIS narrowbands corresponding to Landsat 10. This finding aligns with earlier studies showing a small number of strategically positioned narrowbands can be optimal for crop type classification. Use of the narrowband datasets resulted in substantially higher accuracy (overall accuracy of 86%) compared to the simulated Landsat 10 broadbands (overall accuracy of 75%), supporting previous studies highlighting the utility of narrowbands. Despite the high accuracy using August imagery, the study indicates more granular crop type classification will require multi-temporal observations spanning the full phenological cycle (June–October), especially for a large number of crop classes. Acquiring task-based hyperspectral imagery over such large areas throughout the growing season remains operationally challenging. In contrast, Landsat 10 superspectral imagery could provide routine coverage across seasons and years that is practical and scalable for future large area crop type mapping and agricultural monitoring.

California

The future of fungi: Threats and opportunities

The fungal kingdom represents an extraordinary diversity of organisms with profound impacts across animal, plant, and ecosystem health. Fungi simultaneously support life, by forming beneficial symbioses with plants and producing life-saving medicines, and bring death, by causing devastating diseases in humans, plants, and animals. With climate change, increased antimicrobial resistance, global trade, environmental degradation, and novel viruses altering the impact of fungi on health and disease, developing new approaches is now more crucial than ever to combat the threats posed by fungi and to harness their extraordinary potential for applications in human health, food supply, and environmental remediation. To address this aim, the Canadian Institute for Advanced Research (CIFAR) and the Burroughs Wellcome Fund convened a workshop to unite leading experts on fungal biology from academia and industry to strategize innovative solutions to global challenges and fungal threats. This report provides recommendations to accelerate fungal research and highlights the major research advances and ideas discussed at the meeting pertaining to 5 major topics: (1) Connections between fungi and climate change and ways to avert climate catastrophe; (2) Fungal threats to humans and ways to mitigate them; (3) Fungal threats to agriculture and food security and approaches to ensure a robust global food supply; (4) Fungal threats to animals and approaches to avoid species collapse and extinction; and (5) Opportunities presented by the fungal kingdom, including novel medicines and enzymes.

G3 Genes, Genomes, Genetics

USGS—An Unparalleled Scientific Asset

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) delivers information critical to powering our economy, managing our natural resources, and keeping Americans safe and healthy. 1 Mapping the Nation $21B Geologic maps save users an estimated 15% in annual costs: a value of between $14B and $21B. $25.6B in annual value to users of imagery from Landsat satellites, which were codeveloped by NASA and the USGS and operated through their lifespans by the USGS. $13.5B in annual benefits is generated by the USGS's 3D Elevation Program. Securing America’s Energy Independence 44% USGS-identified undiscovered geothermal energy is equal to 44% of current U.S. electricity generation. 29.4B barrels of oil and 391.6 trillion cubic feet of gas in recoverable resources are available on U.S. public lands based on USGS assessments. Protecting Americans’ Health and Safety $424B in recent wildland fire damages highlight the need for USGS fire science, which supports efforts to protect communities and reduce risk. USGS earthquake, volcano, landslide, and coastal hazard monitoring and information save lives and minimize costs; for example, $2.8M can be saved because of USGS enhanced information about a Mauna Loa eruption. $4.5B is the estimated cost of annual flooding. Through a network of over 11,885 streamgages, the USGS supports public safety and enables forecasts, early warning systems, and management actions that protect lives and property. Supporting National Security $3.1B The USGS identified a $3.1B risk to the American economy if China restricts gallium imports. This is one example underscoring the importance of the USGS mapping critical minerals, investigating supply chains, and producing the Nation’s critical minerals list. Enhancing Our Lands and Waters $21B in estimated annual costs results from invasive species. The USGS’s invasive species research informs approaches used to reduce their effects on agriculture, water infrastructure, disease transmission, fisheries, and outdoor recreation. USGS innovations support early warnings for harmful algal blooms—over $2M in yearly benefits are provided to Kansas alone. $45B USGS science informs the management of big game (such as deer and elk). The big-game hunting industry contributes $45B to the U.S. economy. Fostering American Prosperity $4.1T Mineral commodities are necessary for the $4.1T in value added to the GDP by major industries that consume processed mineral materials and employ 1 million workers. Because of this, USGS data on mineral supply, demand, and trade are highly valued. 45,000 metric tons Rare earths power the growing technology economy, including cell phones, electric vehicles, and medical devices. For over 70 years, USGS work has supported the discovery of rare earth resources in California’s Mountain Pass area, which produced 45,000 metric tons of rare earth concentrates in 2024—over 11% of the global supply. Guarding American Food Security $70.2B USGS science informs early warning systems and management strategies to mitigate disease outbreaks in agriculture—critical research on highly pathogenic avian influenza, for example, helps safeguard the $70B value in poultry and egg production. $11.8B USGS groundwater tools are vital for agriculture; for example, in the Mississippi Alluvial Plain, 65% of farming relies on groundwater to support its $11.8B annual industry. 1 Values throughout are given in billions (B), millions (M), and trillions (T) of U.S. dollars. GDP is “Gross Domestic Product.” Percentages are shown as %.

General Information Product

Waterfowl occurrence and residence time as indicators of H5 and H7 avian influenza in North American Poultry

Avian influenza (AI) affects wild aquatic birds and poses hazards to human health, food security, and wildlife conservation globally. Accordingly, there is a recognized need for new methods and tools to help quantify the dynamic interaction between wild bird hosts and commercial poultry. Using satellite-marked waterfowl, we applied Bayesian joint hierarchical modeling to concurrently model species distributions, residency times, migration timing, and disease occurrence probability under an integrated animal movement and disease distribution modeling framework. Our results indicate that migratory waterfowl are positively related to AI occurrence over North America such that as waterfowl occurrence probability or residence time increase at a given location, so too does the chance of a commercial poultry AI outbreak. Analyses also suggest that AI occurrence probability is greatest during our observed waterfowl northward migration, and less during the southward migration. Methodologically, we found that when modeling disparate facets of disease systems at the wildlife-agriculture interface, it is essential that multiscale spatial patterns be addressed to avoid mistakenly inferring a disease process or disease-environment relationship from a pattern evaluated at the improper spatial scale. The study offers important insights into migratory waterfowl ecology and AI disease dynamics that aid in better preparing for future outbreaks.

Scientific Reports

The geology of Canadian potash: A critical mineral for feeding the world

Potash, potassium-bearing water-soluble salt, is the primary global economic source of potassium. Potash is recognized as a critical mineral in Canada as it is the largest source of potassium used in fertilizers. It is essential for global agricultural productivity and food security. Canada is the world’s largest potash exporter with vast deposits in the widely mined Prairie Evaporite of Saskatchewan, which formed in the epicontinental Elk Point Basin during the Middle Devonian. Potash is also found in the Windsor Group of Atlantic Canada where it formed in a series of tectonically active basins during the Mississippian that have undergone substantial post-depositional subsurface alteration and deformation. Potash deposits were mined in New Brunswick up until 2016. Both deposits are salt giants, recording times in the geologic record of extensive and long-lasting evaporite genesis under arid conditions in restricted seas. This paper reviews the geological and economic significance of Canadian potash, including (1) the genesis of each deposit, (2) diagenetic, erosional, and tectonic modification, and (3) exploration and mining in each basin. Underdeveloped regions, possible undiscovered resources, environmental considerations, and the importance of sustainable practices in light of climate change and socioeconomic risks are also addressed.

Facets

Proceedings of the 2024 Asia-Pacific Wildlife Health Workshop—Collaborating against shared threats

Emerging diseases of wildlife origin are increasingly transboundary (they spread rapidly across geographic regions and across continents). In recent years, examples include the rapid spread of African swine fever across Europe and Asia with negative effects on food security, and the near global spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza which has devastated wildlife populations, caused economic harm, and which threatens public health; consequently, international partnerships and networks are essential to facilitate the sharing of information for improved situational awareness and better preparedness and response. In this regard, the U.S. Geological Survey and the Korea National Institute for Wildlife Disease Control and Prevention have had a long-standing partnership to foster scientific collaboration. A key part of the activities has been annual scientific workshops, which commenced in 2016. The 2024 workshop in Hilo, Hawaii, was the most recent in these series of workshops and included participants from across Asia and the Pacific region, including Thailand, Vietnam, China, Republic of Korea, Japan, Australia, Cook Islands, Fiji, and the United States. The goals of the workshop were: to continue to build the wildlife health community of practice in the Asia-Pacific region and expand the participants to agencies and institutions from other countries in the region; and exchange scientific knowledge among the participants to share best practices, create scientific networks, and build capacity in wildlife health science for the Asia-Pacific region. The themes discussed at the workshop included wildlife health risk management, avian Influenza, African swine fever, climate change and emerging diseases, and international cooperation. This report contains the author-submitted abstracts which provide a summary of the presentations and discussions during the workshop. The aim is to share this information to continue to foster international scientific exchange to protect wildlife health, livestock, and public health from the negative impacts of infectious and noninfectious diseases.

Open-File Report

Puerto Rico’s state of the climate 2014-2021

The climate of Puerto Rico is influenced by the changing global climate. The following chapters present the current knowledge of the geophysical and chemical drivers and signals of global climate change as they affect the climate of Puerto Rico and influence the climate-dependent services, risks, and vulnerabilities that govern human well-being. These include sustainable economic development, delivery of ecosystem services, the conservation of natural and cultural resources, resiliency in built and natural systems, and food security. The chapters draw on global expertise of land, atmosphere, and ocean geophysical interactions associated with increasing greenhouse gases that drive global warming and on local scientific expertise, data, observations, and modeled projections. They present the global warming scenario (section 1), the contribution of Puerto Rico to global climate change as GHG emissions and aerosols (section 2), the context of natural climate variability (section 3), observed and projected trends in temperature (section 4), rainfall (section 5), sea level rise (section 6), ocean acidification and sea surface warming (section 7), and the expected implications of warming climate on tropical cyclones affecting Puerto Rico (section 8).

Puerto Rico