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What can we learn from the Wells, NV earthquake sequence about seismic hazard in the intermountain west?

The February 21, 2008 Wells, NV earthquake (M 6) was felt throughout eastern Nevada, southern Idaho, and western Utah. The town of Wells sustained significant damage to unreinforced masonry buildings. The earthquake occurred in a region of low seismic hazard with little seismicity, low geodetic strain rates, and few mapped faults. The peak horizontal ground acceleration predicted by the USGS National Seismic Hazard Maps is about 0.2 g at 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years, with the contributions coming mostly from the Ruby Mountain fault and background seismicity (M5-7.0). The hazard model predicts that the probability of occurrence of an M>6 event within 50 km of Wells is about 15% in 100 years. Although the earthquake was inside the USArray Transportable Array network, the nearest on-scale recordings of ground motions from the mainshock were too distant to estimate accelerations in town. The University of Nevada Reno, the University of Utah, and the U.S. Geological Survey deployed portable instruments to capture the ground motions from aftershocks of this rare normal-faulting event. Shaking from a M 4.7 aftershock recorded on portable instruments at distances less than 10 km exceeded 0.3 g, and sustained accelerations above 0.1 g lasted for about 5 seconds. For a magnitude 5 earthquake at 10 km distance the NGA equations predict median peak ground accelerations about 0.1 g. Ground motions from normal faulting earthquakes are poorly represented in the ground motion prediction equations. We compare portable and Transportable Array ground-motion recordings with prediction equations. Advanced National Seismic System stations in Utah recorded ground motions 250 km from the mainshock of about 2% g. The maximum ground motion recorded in Salt Lake City was in the center of the basin. We analyze the spatial variability of ground motions (rock vs. soil) and the influence of the Salt Lake Basin in modifying the ground motions. We then compare this data with the September 28, 2004 Parkfield aftershocks to contrast the differences between strike-slip and normal ground motions.

Conference Paper

Hydrogeologic framework and groundwater conditions of the Ararat Basin in Armenia

Armenia is a landlocked country located in the mountainous Caucasus region between Asia and Europe. It shares borders with the countries of Georgia on the north, Azerbaijan on the east, Iran on the south, and Turkey and Azerbaijan on the west. The Ararat Basin is a transboundary basin in Armenia and Turkey. The Ararat Basin (or Ararat Valley) is an intermountain depression that contains the Aras River and its tributaries, which also form the border between Armenia and Turkey and divide the basin into northern and southern regions. The Ararat Basin also contains Armenia’s largest agricultural and fish farming zone that is supplied by high-quality water from wells completed in the artesian aquifers that underlie the basin. Groundwater constitutes about 40 percent of all water use, and groundwater provides 96 percent of the water used for drinking purposes in Armenia. Since 2000, groundwater withdrawals and consumption in the Ararat Basin of Armenia have increased because of the growth of aquaculture and other uses. Increased groundwater withdrawals caused decreased springflow, reduced well discharges, falling water levels, and a reduction of the number of flowing artesian wells in the southern part of Ararat Basin in Armenia. In 2016, the U.S. Geological Survey and the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) began a cooperative study in Armenia to share science and field techniques to increase the country’s capabilities for groundwater study and modeling. The purpose of this report is to describe the hydrogeologic framework and groundwater conditions of the Ararat Basin in Armenia based on data collected in 2016 and previous hydrogeologic studies. The study area includes the Ararat Basin in Armenia. This report was completed through a partnership with USAID/Armenia in the implementation of its Science, Technology, Innovation, and Partnerships effort through the Advanced Science and Partnerships for Integrated Resource Development program and associated partners, including the Government of Armenia, Armenia’s Hydrogeological Monitoring Center, and the USAID Global Development Lab and its GeoCenter. The hydrogeologic framework of the Ararat Basin includes several basin-fill stratigraphic units consisting of interbedded dense clays, gravels, sands, volcanic basalts, and andesite deposits. Previously published cross sections and well lithologic logs were used to map nine general hydrogeologic units. Hydrogeologic units were mapped based on lithology and water-bearing potential. Water-level data measured in the water-bearing hydrogeologic units 2, 4, 6, and 8 in 2016 were used to create potentiometric surface maps. In hydrogeologic unit 2, the estimated direction of groundwater flow is from the west to north in the western part of the basin (away from the Aras River) and from north to south (toward the Aras River) in the eastern part of the basin. In hydrogeologic unit 4, the direction of groundwater flow is generally from west to east and north to south (toward the Aras River) except in the western part of the basin where groundwater flow is toward the north or northwest. Hydrogeologic unit 6 has the same general pattern of groundwater flow as unit 4. Hydrogeologic unit 8 is the deepest of the water-bearing units and is confined in the basin. Groundwater flow generally is from the south to north (away from the Aras River) in the western part of the basin and from west to east and north to south (toward the Aras River) elsewhere in the basin. In addition to water levels, personnel from Armenia’s Hydrogeological Monitoring Center also measured specific conductance at 540 wells and temperature at 2,470 wells in the Ararat Basin using U.S. Geological Survey protocols in 2016. The minimum specific conductance was 377 microsiemens per centimeter (μS/cm), the maximum value was 4,000 μS/cm, and the mean was 998 μS/cm. The maximum water temperature was 24.2 degrees Celsius. An analysis between water temperature and well depth indicated no relation; however, spatially, most wells with cooler water temperatures were within the 2016 pressure boundary or in the western part of the basin. Wells with generally warmer water temperatures were in the eastern part of the basin. Samples were collected from four groundwater sites and one surface-water site by the U.S. Geological Survey in 2016. The stable-isotope values were similar for all five sites, indicating similar recharge sources for the sampled wells. The Hrazdan River sample was consistent with the groundwater samples, indicating the river could serve as a source of recharge to the Ararat artesian aquifer.

Ararat Basin

MAS/MILS Arc/Info point coverage for the western U.S. (excluding Hawaii)

The U.S. Geological Survey has two international and one regional digital database that contains information on mineral properties. This report describes the conversion of selected data from one of the international databases - MAS/MILS (Mineral Availability System/Mineral Industry Location System) - into a spatial data product. The MAS/MILS database, obtained from the U.S. Bureau of Mines (USBM) upon its closure, contains over 221,000 records of mineral properties and processing facilities throughout the world. However, the majority of the records in the database are of sites located in the western U.S. This is due to the extensive mineral activity that has occurred in the West, and the work done by mineral professionals in the Western, Alaska, and Intermountain Field Operations Centers of the USBM. The purpose of this project was to create a spatial coverage of the western U.S. containing mineral resource information. This coverage includes information for the states of Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming. For this report, locations from MAS/MILS were converted to a point coverage using a geographic information system (GIS). All work was done using Arc/Info v. 7.0.4. There are 128,441 points in the coverage.

Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Mont

Final Report for Emergency Stabilization and Rehabilitation Treatment Monitoring of the Keeney Pass, Cow Hollow, Double Mountain, and Farewell Bend Fires

A strategy for monitoring post-fire seedings in the sagebrush steppe of the Intermountain West was developed and used to monitor four example fires in the Vale, Oregon District of the Bureau of Land Management (BLM). We began to develop a potential approach by (1) reviewing previous vegetation monitoring manuals produced by the Federal government to determine what techniques and approaches had been approved for use, and (2) monitoring a set of example fire rehabilitation projects from 2006 through 2008. We reviewed seven vegetation monitoring manuals approved for use by the Federal government. From these seven manuals, we derived a set of design elements appropriate for monitoring post-fire rehabilitation and stabilization projects. These design elements consisted of objectives, stratification, control plots, random sampling, data quality, and statistical analysis. Additionally, we chose three quantitative vegetation field procedures that were objective and repeatable to be used in conjunction with these six design elements. During the spring and summer of 2006 to 2008, U.S. Geological Survey personnel monitored vegetation in seven post-fire seeding treatments in four burned areas in the Vale district of the BLM in eastern Oregon. Treatments monitored included a native and non-native seeding in each of the Farewell Bend, Double Mountain, and Keeney Pass fires, and a native seeding at the Cow Hollow fire. All fires occurred in 2005. There generally was a low level of plant establishment for all seedings by 2008. The quantitative objective established by the BLM was to achieve 5 seeded grass plants/m2 by the end of 3 years as a result of the seeding. There was an estimated 3.97 and 6.28 plants/m2 in 2006 and 1.06 and 0.85 plants/m2 seeded perennial grasses in 2008 from the Keeney Pass non-native and native seeding, respectively. The Cow Hollow seeding resulted in the lowest establishment of perennial seeded grasses of the four project areas with 0.69 plants/m2 in 2006 and 0.09 plants/m2 in 2008. Density of seeded perennial grasses at the Double Mountain non-native and native seeding were 2.72 and 3.86 plants/m2 in 2006 and 0.90 and 1.74 plants/m2 in 2008, respectively. The Farewell Bend non-native seeding resulted in 5.62 plants/m2 in 2006 and 0.42 plants/m2 in 2008 while the native seeding had 2.22 seeded grass plants/m2 in 2006 and 0.44 plants/m2 by 2008. The primary reason for low level of establishment on most treatments except the Cow Hollow seeding was most likely the unfavorable timing and amount of precipitation in 2007 and 2008. Measurements of density within the first 3 years provide the best estimate of initial seeding success. Increases in cover due to the seedings were not detectable in the first 3 years following seeding in this monitoring effort. Changes in cover resulting from the treatments may be detectable in cases where the seedings were very successful in the first 3 years following seeding, but in areas with lower annual average precipitation, may not occur consistently. As a result, cover of seeded species may not be a good indication of seeding success in the early years after treatment. However, cover is useful for monitoring initial patterns of abundance of naturally recovering vegetation, exotic annual grasses and forbs, and bare ground. Cover measurements at these four sites revealed patterns common to most of the treatment areas in cover of litter, bare ground, and exotic annuals in response to drill seeding and weather patterns. There was a rapid increase in litter at all treatments after the fire. Additionally, there was less litter in treatment plots than in the control plots in 2006 probably due to the mechanical action of the seed drill. There also was a corresponding decrease in bare ground from 2006 to 2008. Initially, higher bare ground cover at treatment plots appears to be due to the mechanical action of the seed drill. Cover of annual grasses, primarily Bromus tectorum,

Open-File Report

Preface to the Focus Section on the 2020 Intermountain West earthquakes

The Intermountain West region of the United States extends from the eastern margin of the Sierra Nevada and Cascade Mountains in the west to the Rocky Mountains in the east. The region is characterized by dextral shear along the eastern margin of the Sierra Nevada and nearly east-west extension in the Basin and Range. This region experienced four significant earthquake sequences in the first half of 2020. The most significant mainshocks were the 18 March 2020 Mw 5.7 earthquake north of Magna, Utah (a suburb of Salt Lake City), the 31 March 2020 Mw 6.5 earthquake northwest of Stanley, Idaho, the 15 May 2020 Mw 6.5 earthquake in the Monte Cristo Range, northwest of Tonopah, Nevada, and the 24 June 2020 Mw 5.8 earthquake near Lone Pine, California. The 15 articles appearing in this focus section explore timely and important topics associated with these sequences, including kinematic rupture models, near-field ground motions, aftershock statistics, geologic observations, seismic hazard implications, and seismotectonics. It is noteworthy that the efforts to record and characterize these earthquake sequences took place during travel and work restrictions necessitated by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Seismological Research Letters

Seismic background noise levels across the continental United States from USArray Transportable Array: The influence of geology and geography

Since 2004, the most complete estimate of background noise levels across the continental U.S. was attained using 61 broadband seismic stations to calculate power spectral density (PSD) probability density functions. To improve seismic noise estimates across the U.S., we examine vertical component seismic data from the EarthScope USArray Transportable Array seismic network that rolled across the U.S. and southeastern Canada between 2004 and 2015 and form a large (10 TB) PSD database from 1679 stations that contains no smoothing or binning of the spectral estimates. Including station outages, our database has a mean of 98.9% data completeness, and we present maps showing the spatial and temporal variability of seismic noise in six bands of interest between 0.2- and 75-s period. At 0.2 s period, seismic noise across the eastern U.S. is predominantly anthropogenically generated and may be subsequently amplified more than 20 decibels in the sandy and water-saturated sediments of the southeastern U.S. Coastal Plain and Mississippi Embayment. In these sediments, 1 s noise shows similar amplification and is generated through a variety of mechanisms including cultural activity throughout Kentucky and the southeastern Appalachian Mountains, lake waves around the Great Lakes, and ocean waves throughout New England, the Pacific Northwest, and Florida. Both 0.2 and 1 s noise levels are the lowest in the Intermountain West portion of the U.S. We attribute this to a combination of installations on crystalline rocks and reduced population density. Finally, we find that sensors emplaced in sandy, water-saturated sediments observe median, diurnal variations in vertical component power at 18 to 75 s period, which we infer arise through local deformation driven by pressure variations. Ultimately, our results underscore that for shallow (<5 m depth) sensor installation, bedrock provides superior broadband noise performance compared to unconsolidated sediments.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America

Quaternary tectonics of Utah with emphasis on earthquake-hazard characterization

This report consolidates and synthesizes information on Quaternary faulting, folding, and volcanism in Utah and characterizes recent tectonic activity throughout the state. The primary purpose is to provide a comprehensive reference on faultspecific seismic sources and surface rupture to facilitate the evaluation of earthquake hazards in Utah. Two 1:500,000-scale maps show Quaternary tectonic features categorized according to probable ages of most recent surface deformation (plate 1) and ages of volcanic rocks (plate 2). Two appendix tables summarize significant data on the activity of mapped features, including ages of surface displacements and volcanism, slip rates, recurrence intervals, displacement amounts, and lengths of surface ruptures. Good age control and quantitative activity data are available for relatively few tectonic features in Utah and detailed work is needed in many areas of the state. Existing information is adequate to demonstrate that Quaternary crustal deformation, principally normal faulting, is concentrated within a broad, north-trending zone coincident with the Intermountain seismic belt and the transitional tectonic boundary between the Basin and Range and Middle Rocky MountainsColorado Plateau physiographic provinces. Large, regionally significant structures with evidence of relatively high lateQuaternary slip rates include the Wasatch fault zone in the northern half of the state and, to the south, the Hurricane and Sevier faults. Tectonic activity during the Holocene has been concentrated on the Wasatch fault zone and, to a lesser extent, on other faults and folds in the broader Wasatch Front region and in west-central Utah. The average regional recurrence interval for large-magnitude earthquakes in the Wasatch Front region during the Holocene appears to be 125 to 300 years or less, although events have been non-uniformly distributed in time. Most notably, the composite recurrence interval for the particularly active, segmented Wasatch fault zone is roughly 400 years for the middle to late Holocene, but only 220 years for the past 1,500 years. Other patterns of spatially and temporally clustered tectonic activity in northern and west-central Utah appear to be related to persistent structural controls or to tectonic perturbations, such as crustal loading from deep-lake cycles. Most normal faults with evidence of geologically young surface displacements (or faults which may be expressed at the surface as large-scale folds) are inferred to be moderate- to high-angle structures extending down to mid-crustal levels and capable of producing large (magnitude -6.5 to 7 .5) earthquakes. However, the seismogenic potential of faults associated with shallow, low-angle geometries (identified mainly in west -central Utah, the High Plateaus, and the Middle Rocky Mountains) is poorly understood. Some faults and folds in the state may be associated with relatively aseismic processes, such as magmatism, salt diapirism, or shallow, secondary deformation arising from activity on major structures. It is hoped that the broad scope of compiled information and text discussion will yield new insights and help direct future research into Quaternary tectonics and earthquake hazards in Utah.

Utah

Spatiotemporal analysis of the Foreshock-Mainshock-Aftershock sequence of the 6 July 2017 M5.8 Lincoln, Montana, earthquake

A MW 5.8 earthquake occurred on 6 July 2017 at 12.2 km depth, 11 km southeast of Lincoln in west central Montana. No major damage or injuries were reported; however, the widely felt mainshock generated a prolific aftershock sequence with more than 1200 located events through the end of 2017. The Lincoln event is the latest in a series of moderate-to-large earthquakes that have affected western Montana. We characterize the spatiotemporal evolution of the sequence using matched filter detection and multiple-event relocation techniques. Moment tensor solutions and aftershock locations indicate faulting occurred on a 9-km-long NNE-striking, near-vertical, strike-slip fault antithetic to the Lewis and Clark Line, the main through-going fault system. Seismicity primarily occurs between 6 and 16 km depth, consistent with seismicity in the Intermountain Seismic Belt. We estimate a fault rupture area of ~64 km2 and ~30 cm of average fault displacement. We identified four foreshocks in the three days prior to, and 3005 aftershocks in the three weeks following the mainshock. The supplemented catalog frequency-magnitude distribution has a b-value of 0.79 and a minimum magnitude of completeness of 0.7. The overall decay rate is consistent with a modified Omori decay law p-value of 0.76 and c-value of 0.32. This event demonstrates that unmapped faults antithetic to major geologic structures play a role in accommodating regional strain in Western Montana and can host significant earthquakes

Montana

Loss of sagebrush ecosystems and declining bird populations in the Intermountain West: Priority research issues and information needs

Sagebrush lands in the Intermountain West are declining rapidly in quality and extent. Consequently, populations of many bird species dependent on these ecosystems also are declining. The greater sage-grouse has been petitioned for listing as a threatened and endangered species, and other species of sagebrush-obligate birds have special conservation status in most states. We identified the primary issues and information needs during a multi-agency workshop, conducted in response to concerns by management agencies related to declining bird population trends in sagebrush habitats. Priority needs were to (1) obtain a better understanding of bird response to habitat and landscape features, (2) develop monitoring designs to sample habitats and bird populations, (3) determine the effects of land use on sagebrush habitats and dependent bird species, and (4) identify linkages between breeding and wintering ranges. This agenda will identify causes and mechanisms of population declines in birds dependent on sagebrush ecosystems and will lead to better management of the ecosystems upon which they depend.

Fact Sheet

Mormon cricket control in Utah's west desert - Evaluation of impacts of the pesticide Diflubenzuron on nontarget arthropod communities

Grasshopper and Mormon cricket (Orthoptera) populations periodically build to extremely high numbers and can cause significant economic damage in rangelands and agricultural fields of the Great Plains and Intermountain West. A variety of insecticides have been applied to control population outbreaks, with recent efforts directed at minimizing impacts to nontarget fauna in treated ecosystems. A relatively new insecticide for control of Orthoptera is diflubenzuron, which acts to inhibit chitin production, ultimately causing death during the molt following ingestion of the insecticide. All arthropods, including insects, mites, and crustaceans, use chitin to build their exoskeletons and will die if they are unable to produce it during the next molt. Diflubenzuron is not taxon specific—it affects all arthropods that ingest it, except adult insects, which do not molt. Consequently, application of this pesticide has the potential to significantly reduce not only target populations but all terrestrial and aquatic arthropods within treatment zones. Some research has been done in the Great Plains on the impact of diflubenzuron on nontarget arthropods in the context of grasshopper-control programs, but no work has been done in the Great Basin in Mormon cricket-control areas. This study was instigated in anticipation of the need for extensive control of Orthoptera outbreaks in Utah’s west desert during 2005, and it was designed to sample terrestrial and aquatic arthropod communities in both treated and untreated zones. Three areas were sampled: Grouse Creek, Ibapah, and Vernon. High mortality of Mormon cricket eggs in the wet, cool spring of 2005 restricted the need to control Mormon crickets to Grouse Creek. Diflubenzuron was applied (aerial reduced agent-area treatment) in May 2005. Terrestrial and aquatic arthropod communities were sampled before and after application of diflubenzuron in the Grouse Creek area of northwestern Utah in May and June of 2005. In July 2005, U.S. Geological Survey scientists sampled areas in Ibapah and Vernon that had been treated with diflubenzuron in 2004, along with adjacent untreated areas. Pitfall traps at four treated and four untreated sites were used to collect ground-dwelling terrestrial arthropods. Semiquantitative sweep surveys of aquatic habitats were made before treatment, 2 weeks after treatment, and 4 months after treatment (after leaf fall) at Grouse Creek. One-year post-treatment samples were collected by using the same methods for terrestrial and aquatic arthropods at Ibapah and Vernon in July 2005 (treatments applied in June 2004). More than 124,000 terrestrial arthropods were collected from the three study areas, and more than 200,000 aquatic invertebrates were collected in the aquatic samples. Direct effects of diflubenzuron on aquatic and terrestrial arthropod communities were not apparent in our data from Grouse Creek. The treatment was designed to avoid spraying pesticide on water bodies, and no measurable effects on aquatic communities from either springs or streams were observed, with the exception of the reduction of taxa richness at Vernon (a result confounded by elevational differences in the treatment and nontreatment zones). Some trends indicate diflubenzuron may affect some terrestrial taxa. Ant communities showed some differences, with possible lag effects at Ibapah and Vernon. Forelius was more abundant, while Tapinoma and, perhaps, Formica declined in treated zones in these two study areas. Solenopsis also was more numerous at treated Ibapah sites but varied without pattern at Vernon. Scorpions were abundant at Grouse Creek and Ibapah but rare at Vernon. Numbers did not change during several weeks at Grouse Creek, but at Ibapah, numbers at treated sites were much lower than at untreated sites. The Lygaeidae (in the order Hemiptera) were more abundant in the untreated zones at Ibapah and Vernon, although significantly so only at Ibapah. Lygaeidae were absent from the treated zone at Grouse Creek (before and after treatment) but were present after treatment in the untreated zone. Additional research is recommended to determine more explicitly whether these taxa are sensitive to diflubenzuron applications in the Great Basin.

Utah

Estimated probability of postwildfire debris flows in the 2012 Whitewater-Baldy Fire burn area, southwestern New Mexico

In May and June 2012, the Whitewater-Baldy Fire burned approximately 1,200 square kilometers (300,000 acres) of the Gila National Forest, in southwestern New Mexico. The burned landscape is now at risk of damage from postwildfire erosion, such as that caused by debris flows and flash floods. This report presents a preliminary hazard assessment of the debris-flow potential from 128 basins burned by the Whitewater-Baldy Fire. A pair of empirical hazard-assessment models developed by using data from recently burned basins throughout the intermountain Western United States was used to estimate the probability of debris-flow occurrence and volume of debris flows along the burned area drainage network and for selected drainage basins within the burned area. The models incorporate measures of areal burned extent and severity, topography, soils, and storm rainfall intensity to estimate the probability and volume of debris flows following the fire. In response to the 2-year-recurrence, 30-minute-duration rainfall, modeling indicated that four basins have high probabilities of debris-flow occurrence (greater than or equal to 80 percent). For the 10-year-recurrence, 30-minute-duration rainfall, an additional 14 basins are included, and for the 25-year-recurrence, 30-minute-duration rainfall, an additional eight basins, 20 percent of the total, have high probabilities of debris-flow occurrence. In addition, probability analysis along the stream segments can identify specific reaches of greatest concern for debris flows within a basin. Basins with a high probability of debris-flow occurrence were concentrated in the west and central parts of the burned area, including tributaries to Whitewater Creek, Mineral Creek, and Willow Creek. Estimated debris-flow volumes ranged from about 3,000-4,000 cubic meters (m 3 ) to greater than 500,000 m 3 for all design storms modeled. Drainage basins with estimated volumes greater than 500,000 m 3 included tributaries to Whitewater Creek, Willow Creek, Iron Creek, and West Fork Mogollon Creek. Drainage basins with estimated debris-flow volumes greater than 100,000 m 3 for the 25-year-recurrence event, 24 percent of the basins modeled, also include tributaries to Deep Creek, Mineral Creek, Gilita Creek, West Fork Gila River, Mogollon Creek, and Turkey Creek, among others. Basins with the highest combined probability and volume relative hazard rankings for the 25-year-recurrence rainfall include tributaries to Whitewater Creek, Mineral Creek, Willow Creek, West Fork Gila River, West Fork Mogollon Creek, and Turkey Creek. Debris flows from Whitewater, Mineral, and Willow Creeks could affect the southwestern New Mexico communities of Glenwood, Alma, and Willow Creek. The maps presented herein may be used to prioritize areas where emergency erosion mitigation or other protective measures may be necessary within a 2- to 3-year period of vulnerability following the Whitewater-Baldy Fire. This work is preliminary and is subject to revision. It is being provided because of the need for timely "best science" information. The assessment herein is provided on the condition that neither the U.S. Geological Survey nor the U.S. Government may be held liable for any damages resulting from the authorized or unauthorized use of the assessment.

New Mexico