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USGS2018

Dynamic occupancy modeling of temperate marine fish in area-based closures

Species distribution models (SDMs) are commonly used to model the spatial structure of species in the marine environment, however, most fail to account for detectability of the target species. This can result in underestimates of occupancy, where nondetection is conflated with absence. The site occupancy model (SOM) overcomes this failure by treating occupancy as a latent variable of the model and incorporates a detection submodel to account for variability in detection rates. These have rarely been applied in the context of marine fish and never for the multiseason dynamic occupancy model (DOM). In this study, a DOM is developed for a designated species of concern, cusk ( Brosme brosme ), over a four-season period. Making novel use of a high-resolution 3-dimensional hydrodynamic model, detectability of cusk is considered as a function of current speed and algae cover. Algal cover on the seabed is measured from video surveys to divide the study area into two distinct regions: those with canopy forming species of algae and those without (henceforth bottom types). Modeled estimates of the proportion of sites occupied in each season are 0.88, 0.45, 0.74, and 0.83. These are significantly greater than the proportion of occupied sites measured from underwater video observations which are 0.57, 0.28, 0.43, and 0.57. Individual fish are detected more frequently with increasing current speed in areas lacking canopy and less frequently with increasing current speed in areas with canopy. The results indicate that, where possible, SDM studies for all marine species should take account of detectability to avoid underestimating the proportion of sites occupied at a given study area. Sampling closed areas or areas of conservation often requires the use of nonphysical, low impact sampling methods like camera surveys. These methods inherently result in detection probabilities less than one, an issue compounded by time-varying features of the environment that are rarely accounted for marine studies. This work highlights the use of modeled hydrodynamics as a tool to correct some of this imbalance.

Gulf of Maine↗

USGS2019

A strong colonizer rules the trematode guild in an intertidal snail host

We examined the extent to which supply‐side, niche, and competition theories and concepts help explain a trematode community in which one species comprises 87% of the trematode individuals, and the remaining 15 species each have <3%. We collected and dissected the common and wide‐ranging snail host Heleobia australis over four seasons from three distinct habitats from the intertidal area of the Bahía Blanca estuary, Argentina. Inside a snail, trematodes interact with each other with outcomes that depend on facilitation, competition, and preemption, suggesting that dominant species should be common. The abundant trematode species, Microphallus simillimus , is a weak competitor , but has life‐history traits and strategies associated with higher colonization ability that could increase its probability of invading the host first, allowing it to preempt the rare species. Rather than segregate by habitat, trematode species aggregated in pans during the summer where dominant trematode species often excluded subordinate ones. Despite losses to competition, and a lack of niche partitioning, M. simillimus ruled this species‐rich trematode guild through strong recruitment and (potentially) preemption. Therefore, extremely skewed species abundance distributions, like this one, can derive from extremely skewed colonization abilities.

Bahia Blanca Estuary↗

USGS2023

Microbial source tracking and land use associations for antibiotic resistance genes in private wells influenced by human and livestock fecal sources

Antimicrobial resistance is a growing public health problem that requires an integrated approach among human, agricultural, and environmental sectors. However, few studies address all three components simultaneously. We investigated the occurrence of five antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) and the class 1 integron gene ( intI1 ) in private wells drawing water from a vulnerable aquifer influenced by residential septic systems and land-applied dairy manure. Samples ( n = 138) were collected across four seasons from a randomized sample of private wells in Kewaunee County, Wisconsin. Measurements of ARGs and intI1 were related to microbial source tracking (MST) markers specific to human and bovine feces; they were also related to 54 risk factors for contamination representing land use, rainfall, hydrogeology, and well construction. ARGs and intI1 occurred in 5–40% of samples depending on target. Detection frequencies for ARGs and intI1 were lowest in the absence of human and bovine MST markers (1-30%), highest when co-occurring with human and bovine markers together (11-78%), and intermediate when co-occurring with just one type of MST marker (4-46%). Gene targets were associated with septic system density more often than agricultural land, potentially because of the variable presence of manure on the landscape. Determining ARG prevalence in a rural setting with mixed land use allowed an assessment of the relative contribution of human and bovine fecal sources. Because fecal sources co-occurred with ARGs at similar rates, interventions intended to reduce ARG occurrence may be most effective if both sources are considered.

Wisconsin↗

USGS1978

Time-dependence of sea-ice concentration and multiyear ice fraction in the Arctic Basin

The time variation of the sea-ice concentration and multiyear ice fraction within the pack ice in the Arctic Basin is examined, using microwave images of sea ice recently acquired by the Nimbus-5 spacecraft and the NASA CV-990 airborne laboratory. The images used for these studies were constructed from data acquired from the Electrically Scanned Microwave Radiometer (ESMR) which records radiation from earth and its atmosphere at a wavelength of 1.55 cm. Data are analyzed for four seasons during 1973-1975 to illustrate some basic differences in the properties of the sea ice during those times. Spacecraft data are compared with corresponding NASA CV-990 airborne laboratory data obtained over wide areas in the Arctic Basin during the Main Arctic Ice Dynamics Joint Experiment (1975) to illustrate the applicability of passive-microwave remote sensing for monitoring the time dependence of sea-ice concentration (divergence). These observations indicate significant variations in the sea-ice concentration in the spring, late fall and early winter. In addition, deep in the interior of the Arctic polar sea-ice pack, heretofore unobserved large areas, several hundred kilometers in extent, of sea-ice concentrations as low as 50% are indicated. ?? 1978 D. Reidel Publishing Company.

Boundary-Layer Meteorology↗

USGS2014

Temperature effects induced by climate change on the growth and consumption by salmonines in Lakes Michigan and Huron

We used bioenergetics models to investigate temperature effects induced by climate change on the growth and consumption by Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha , lake trout Salvelinus namaycush , and steelhead O. mykiss in Lakes Michigan and Huron. We updated biological inputs to account for recent changes in the food webs and used temperature inputs in response to regional climate observed in the baseline period (1964–1993) and projected in the future period (2043–2070). Bioenergetics simulations were run across multiple age-classes and across all four seasons in different scenarios of prey availability. Due to the increased capacity of prey consumption, future growth and consumption by these salmonines were projected to increase substantially when prey availability was not limited. When prey consumption remained constant, future growth of these salmonines was projected to decrease in most cases but increase in some cases where the increase in metabolic cost can be compensated by the decrease in waste (egestion and excretion) loss. Consumption by these salmonines was projected to increase the most during spring and fall when prey energy densities are relatively high. Such seasonality benefits their future growth through increasing annual gross energy intake. Our results indicated that lake trout and steelhead would be better adapted to the warming climate than Chinook salmon. To maintain baseline growth into the future, an increase of 10 % in baseline prey consumption was required for Chinook salmon but considerably smaller increases, or no increases, in prey consumption were needed by lake trout and steelhead.

Lake Huron, Lake Michigan↗

USGS2026

Urbanization alters riverine fluorescent dissolved organic matter characteristics in a forested city – metropolitan Atlanta, Georgia (USA)

Streams and rivers in urban watersheds are predicted to export more bioreactive, autochthonous dissolved organic matter (DOM) relative to forested watersheds. However, the spatial and temporal variations of DOM quality in forested urban watersheds remain uncertain, and their relationships with socioeconomic conditions, biological characteristics, and the built environment are understudied. We measured optical properties of fluorescent DOM (FDOM) in 93 streams spanning a gradient of land-use and land cover during four seasons in metropolitan Atlanta, Georgia, USA. Streamwater FDOM was dominated by humic substances from anthropogenic (41%) and terrestrial origin (41.5%). Impervious surface cover was the strongest predictor, which was positively correlated with anthropogenically- and autochthonously-derived FDOM. Overwater canopy cover was positively associated with autochthonous FDOM, and housing age increased diagenetic FDOM. FDOM was more proteinaceous during low-flow conditions (fall, winter), and more allochthonous humic-like FDOM was detected during periods of higher flows (spring, summer). Interestingly, wastewater-related FDOM proxies were highest during low flows, suggesting that sewer exfiltration is a pervasive source and is diluted by other inputs during high flows. Overall, seasonal patterns in FDOM quality were associated with changes in hydrology, and FDOM was primarily humic throughout the year, a pattern likely driven by ubiquitous forest canopy cover. Our results highlight the importance of urban forests in mediating aquatic carbon cycling and provide a template for future studies that integrate sociodemographic and infrastructure information into studies of watershed biogeochemistry, especially in regions undergoing rapid, intense, and localized urban development.

Georgia↗

USGS2025

Sources and risk factors for nitrate, pathogens, and fecal contamination of private wells in rural southwestern Wisconsin, USA

Household well water can be degraded by contaminants from the land's surface, but private well owners lack means to protect the source water from neighboring disturbances. Rural residents of southwestern Wisconsin, USA, rely on private well water, and the combination of land use and fractured carbonate bedrock makes groundwater vulnerable to contamination. To identify the extent, sources, and risk factors of private well contamination, randomly selected wells sampled during two-day periods in fall (n = 301) and spring (n = 529) were analyzed for nitrate and indicator bacteria, and a subset (n = 138) was sampled across four seasonal events for analysis of pathogens and microbial source tracking markers by quantitative polymerase chain reaction. Risk factors representing land use, hydrology, geology, and well construction were analyzed for associations with contamination in multivariable models. The importance of risk factors varied by contaminant, illustrating the multifaceted nature of rural groundwater quality. Nitrate contamination was associated with agricultural land use, and wells with casings that extended below a shale aquitard accessed less contaminated water than those drawing water from above it. Human fecal microbes were detected in 64 wells (46%), and rainfall was the key risk factor for contamination, indicating that wastewater from septic systems was available to contaminate wells when transport conditions were favorable. Manure microbes from cattle/ruminants and pigs were detected in 33 and 13 wells, respectively, and concentrations increased with the hectarage of cultivated land near wells. Pathogen genes for viruses, bacteria, and protozoa were detected in 66 wells (48%), including more detections of zoonotic than human-specific pathogens, and human Bacteroides , an indicator of wastewater, was an equivocal predictor of pathogen presence in private wells. Characterizing important elements of the setting, like geology, and identifying sources and risk factors for contaminants can inform landscape-level policies to protect groundwater quality.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2010

Use and environmental occurrence of pharmaceuticals in freestall dairy farms with manured forage fields

Environmental releases of antibiotics from concentrated animal feeding operations (CAFOs) are of increasing regulatory concern. This study investigates the use and occurrence of antibiotics in dairy CAFOs and their potential transport into first-encountered groundwater. On two dairies we conducted four seasonal sampling campaigns, each across 13 animal production and waste management systems and associated environmental pathways: application to animals, excretion to surfaces, manure collection systems, soils, and shallow groundwater. Concentrations of antibiotics were determined using on line solid phase extraction (OLSPE) and liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC/MS/MS) with electrospray ionization (ESI) for water samples, and accelerated solvent extraction (ASE) LC/MS/MS with ESI for solid samples. A variety of antibiotics were applied at both farms leading to antibiotics excretion of several hundred grams per farm per day. Sulfonamides, tetracyclines, and their epimers/isomers, and lincomycin were most frequently detected. Yet, despite decades of use, antibiotic occurrence appeared constrained to within farm boundaries. The most frequent antibiotic detections were associated with lagoons, hospital pens, and calf hutches. When detected below ground, tetracyclines were mainly found in soils, whereas sulfonamides were found in shallow groundwater reflecting key differences in their physicochemical properties. In manure lagoons, 10 compounds were detected including tetracyclines and trimethoprim. Of these 10, sulfadimethoxine, sulfamethazine, and lincomycin were found in shallow groundwater directly downgradient from the lagoons. Antibiotics were sporadically detected in field surface samples on fields with manure applications, but not in underlying sandy soils. Sulfadimethoxine and sulfamethazine were detected in shallow groundwater near field flood irrigation gates, but at highly attenuated levels.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

USGS2011

Where the wild things are: Predicting hotspots of seabird aggregations in the California Current System

Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) provide an important tool for conservation of marine ecosystems. To be most effective, these areas should be strategically located in a manner that supports ecosystem function. To inform marine spatial planning and support strategic establishment of MPAs within the California Current System, we identified areas predicted to support multispecies aggregations of seabirds (“hotspots”). We developed habitat‐association models for 16 species using information from at‐sea observations collected over an 11‐year period (1997–2008), bathymetric data, and remotely sensed oceanographic data for an area from north of Vancouver Island, Canada, to the USA/Mexico border and seaward 600 km from the coast. This approach enabled us to predict distribution and abundance of seabirds even in areas of few or no surveys. We developed single‐species predictive models using a machine‐learning algorithm: bagged decision trees. Single‐species predictions were then combined to identify potential hotspots of seabird aggregation, using three criteria: (1) overall abundance among species, (2) importance of specific areas (“core areas”) to individual species, and (3) predicted persistence of hotspots across years. Model predictions were applied to the entire California Current for four seasons (represented by February, May, July, and October) in each of 11 years. Overall, bathymetric variables were often important predictive variables, whereas oceanographic variables derived from remotely sensed data were generally less important. Predicted hotspots often aligned with currently protected areas (e.g., National Marine Sanctuaries), but we also identified potential hotspots in Northern California/Southern Oregon (from Cape Mendocino to Heceta Bank), Southern California (adjacent to the Channel Islands), and adjacent to Vancouver Island, British Columbia, that are not currently included in protected areas. Prioritization and identification of multispecies hotspots will depend on which group of species is of highest management priority. Modeling hotspots at a broad spatial scale can contribute to MPA site selection, particularly if complemented by fine‐scale information for focal areas.

California↗

USGS1883

Twelfth Annual Report of the United States Geological and Geographical Survey of the Territories: A report of progress of the exploration in Wyoming and Idaho for the year 1878, Part I: Geology, paleontology, and zoology

This report includes the labors of the corps for the field season of 1878, and the office work until the close of the existence of the Survey by law June 30, 1879. Several of the members have, however, performed very important work since that time in elaborating their individual reports, which has added greatly to their interest and value. A general summary of the work for the season of 1878 will be appropriate in this connection. Owing to the length of the session, Congress did not pass the usual appropriation for the work of the Survey until July, and consequently the period for work in the field was comparatively short. The headquarters of the Survey was at Cheyenne, Wyo., the same as the preceding season. Four parties were organized, but in such a manner that in case of necessity they could be divided for special duty. All our outfit and animals were transported from Cheyenne to Point of Rocks and Green River Stations on the Union Pacific Railroad, and from thence the parties pursued their way northward to their respective fields of labor.

Colorado, Idaho, Utah, Wyoming↗

USGS1950

The subsurface stratigraphy and structure of the Simpson area

During the summer of 1949, 12 core tests were drilled in the vicinity of Simpson Seep No. 2 on the east side of the Simpson peninsula. These tests were drilled in an attempt to determine the origin of the Simpson oil seeps and to evaluate the petroleum possibilities of the area. These holes failed to satisfy the objective for which they were drilled, but did define a nearly north-south linear ridge of essentially unconsolidated sand enclosed by a monotonous sequence of clay shale. A gas-bearing horizon and good oil shows were encountered on the crest of the ridge in the vicinity of Seep No. 2 during the 1949 drilling season. In November 1949 the Operating Committee approved the drilling of additional core holes in this area to resolve the complex geologic problems encountered by the shellow drilling of the previous season. Four additional tests had been completed by November 1, 1950, and a fifth is now in progress. Drilling completed thus far in 1950 has resulted in more accurate delineation of the sand ridge, and a flowing oil well has been discovered on the west edge of the ridge near Seep No. 3.

Alaska↗

USGS1998

Low-flow water-quality characterization of the Gore Creek watershed, upper Colorado River basin, Colorado, August 1996

The Upper Colorado River Basin (UCOL) is one of 59 National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) study units designed to assess the status and trends of the Nation?s water quality (Leahy and others, 1990). The UCOL study unit began operation in 1994, and surface-water-quality data collection at a network of 14 sites began in October 1995 (Apodaca and others, 1996; Spahr and others, 1996). Gore Creek, which flows through Vail, Colorado, originates in pristine alpine headwaters and is designated a gold-medal trout fishery. The creek drains an area of about 102 square miles and is a tributary to the Eagle River. Gore Creek at the mouth near Minturn (site 13 in fig. 1) is one of the 14 sites in the UCOL network. This site was selected to evaluate water quality resulting from urban development and recreational land use. The Gore Creek watershed has undergone rapid land-use changes since the 1960?s as the Vail area shifted from traditional mountain ranchlands to a four-season resort community. Residential, recreational, commercial, and transportation development continues near Gore Creek and its tributaries to support the increasing permanent and tourist population of the area. Interstate 70 runs through the watershed from Vail Pass near site 14, along the eastern side of Black Gore Creek, and along the northern side of the main stem of Gore Creek to the mouth of the watershed (fig. 1). A major local concern is how increasing urbanization/recreation affects the water quality, gold-medal trout fishery, and aesthetic values of Gore Creek. An evaluation of the spatial characteristics of water quality in the watershed upstream from site 13 at the mouth of Gore Creek (fig. 1) can provide local water and land managers with information necessary to establish water policy and make land-use planning decisions to maintain or improve water quality. Historical data collected at the mouth of Gore Creek provide information about water quality resulting from land use, but a synoptic sampling is needed to determine the distribution and sources of water-quality constituents at one point in time. In August 1996, a low-flow synoptic sampling for analyses of water-quality properties and constituents at sites in the Gore Creek watershed was done by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Town of Vail, Eagle River Water and Sanitation District, Upper Eagle River Water Authority, and Northwest Colorado Council of Governments, to evaluate the water quality of Gore Creek. The August low-flow period can be important from water-quality and stream ecology perspectives. There is less water available to dilute any contaminants entering the streams, and stream temperatures are highest during August. Physical habitat for aquatic plants and animals is smaller than during most other times of the year. To address these more extreme water-quality and ecological conditions, the synoptic sampling was conducted during the summer low-flow period. Specific objectives of this sampling included: 1. Establish a current data set representing the spatial characteristics of low-flow water-quality conditions in the Gore Creek watershed, and 2. Develop some understanding of land-use and water-quality relations in the watershed. This fact sheet presents hydrologic background information and an analysis of general water-quality properties and constituents, trace elements, and nutrients collected in water samples during low-flow synoptic sampling of the Gore Creek watershed. The U.S. Geological Survey also is conducting a study of the algae and macroinvertebrate communities and physical habitat of streams in the Gore Creek watershed during low flow. This study is designed to provide information about land-use and stream ecology relations in the watershed.

Colorado↗

USGS2007

Climate variation at Flagstaff, Arizona - 1950 to 2007

Much scientific research demonstrates the existence of recent climate variation, particularly global warming. Climate prediction models forecast that climate will change; it will become warmer, droughts will increase in number and severity, and extreme climate events will recur often—desiccating aridity, extremely wet, unusually warm, or even frigid at times. However, the global models apply to average conditions in large grids approximately 150 miles on an edge (Thorpe, 2005), and how or whether specific areas within a grid are affected is unclear. Flagstaff's climate is mentioned in the context of global change, but information is lacking on the amount and trend of changes in precipitation, snowfall, and temperature. The purpose of this report is to understand what may be happening to Flagstaff's climate by reviewing local climate history. Flagstaff is in north-central Arizona south of San Francisco Mountain, which reaches 12,633 feet, the highest in Arizona (fig. 1). At 6,900 feet, surrounded by ponderosa pine forest, Flagstaff enjoys a four-season climate; winter-daytime temperatures are cool, averaging 45 degrees (Fahrenheit). Summer-daytime temperatures are comfortable, averaging 80 degrees, which is pleasant compared with nearby low-elevation deserts. Flagstaff's precipitation averages 22-inches per year with a range of 9 to 39 inches. Snowfall occurs each season, averaging 97 inches annually. This report, written for the non-technical reader, interprets climate variation at Flagstaff as observed at the National Weather Service (NWS) station at Pulliam Field (or Airport), a first-order weather station staffed by meteorologists (Staudenmaier and others, 2007). The station is on a flat-topped ridge surrounded by forest 5-miles south of Flagstaff at an elevation of 7,003 feet. Data used in this analysis are daily measurements of precipitation (including snowfall) and temperature (maximum and minimum) covering the period from 1950, when the station began operation, through spring 2007. Conversations with Byron Peterson and Michael Staudenmaier of the NWS helped us understand the difficulties of collecting consistent weather data, operation of the station, and Flagstaff's climate. Weather is the daily or even instantaneous state of temperature and precipitation. Climate is the average or accumulation of these parameters over longer time scales such as a week, month, or year. Seasonal (winter, spring, summer, and fall) and annual averages of temperature and accumulated precipitation describe the temporal variation of Flagstaff's climate, which is shown graphically with time series (figs. 2, 4, 6, 8-15). These plots show precipitation or temperature on the ordinate plotted against time on the abscissa, which is a year for annually repeating data or the year of a particular season. The plots reveal changing patterns of precipitation and temperature related to droughts, wet episodes, and rising temperatures.

Arizona↗

USGS1999

Water-quality assessment of south-central Texas — Descriptions and comparisons of nutrients, pesticides, and volatile organic compounds at three intensive fixed sites, 1996-98

Water-quality samples were collected during April 1996-April 1998 at three intensive fixed sites in the San Antonio region of the South-Central Texas study unit as part of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment Program. The sampling strategy for the intensive fixed-site assessment is centered on obtaining information about the occurrence and seasonal patterns of selected constituents including nutrients, pesticides, and volatile organic compounds. The three sites selected to determine the effects of agriculture and urbanization on surface-water quality in the study unit are Medina River at LaCoste (agriculture indicator site), Salado Creek (lower station) at San Antonio (urban indicator site), and San Antonio River near Elmendorf (integrator site). Concentrations of two nutrients, dissolved nitrite plus nitrate nitrogen and total phosphorus, were largest at the integrator site, which is downstream of municipal wastewater treatment plants. Nitrite plus nitrate nitrogen concentrations at this site often exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) maximum contaminant level (MCL) for drinking water. All total phosphorus concentrations at the site exceeded the EPA recommended maximum concentration for streams not discharging directly into reservoirs. Nitrite plus nitrate nitrogen concentrations at the integrator site tended to be smaller, and total phosphorus concentrations at the urban site tended to be larger in samples collected during stormflow than during base flow. The most detections and largest concentrations of three pesticides (atrazine, diazinon, and prometon) were in samples collected at the urban site. Some pesticide concentrations at the agriculture site showed a seasonal pattern of increasing concentrations during spring, the peak application season. Four pesticides (atrazine, deethylatrazine, diazinon, and prometon) were detected in at least 38 percent of samples collected at all three sites. The concentrations of all detected pesticides that have an MCL were less than the MCL at the three sites. More volatile organic compounds (VOC) were detected at the urban indicator site than at the agriculture indicator site, mostly likely because more sources are located in urbanized areas. The most VOCs detected and the largest concentrations of two VOCs (chloroform and tetrahydrofuran) were in samples from the integrator site. More VOCs were detected in samples collected at the integrator site during stormflow than during base flow. The concentrations of all detected VOCs that have an MCL were less than the MCL at the three sites.

Texas↗

USGS2003

The use of sea ice habitat by female polar bears in the Beaufort Sea

Polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) depend on ice-covered seas to satisfy life history requirements. Modern threats to polar bears include oil spills in the marine environment and changes in ice composition resulting from climate change. Managers need practical models that explain the distribution of bears in order to assess the impacts of these threats. We used stepwise procedures to create resource selection models of habitat use for radio-collared female polar bears in the Beaufort Sea. Sea ice characteristics and ocean depths at known polar bear locations were compared to the same features at randomly selected locations. Models generated for each of four seasons confirmed complexities of habitat use by polar bears and their response to numerous factors. Bears preferred shallow water areas where ice concentrations were > 80 % and different ice types intersected. Variation among seasons was reflected mainly in differential selection of ice stages, floe sizes, and their interactions. Water depth, total ice concentration and distance to the nearest interface between different ice types were significant terms in models for most seasons. Variation in ice stage and form also appeared in three models, and several interaction effects were identified. Habitat selection by polar bears is likely related to prey abundance and availability. Use of habitats in shallow water possibly reflects higher productivity in those areas. Habitat use in close proximity to ice edges is probably related to greater access of prey in those habitats.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2004

Using discrete choice modeling to generate resource selection functions for female polar bears in the Beaufort Sea

Polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) depend on ice-covered seas to satisfy life history requirements. Modern threats to polar bears include oil spills in the marine environment and changes in ice composition resulting from climate change. Managers need practical models that explain the distribution of bears in order to assess the impacts of these threats. We explored the use of discrete choice models to describe habitat selection by female polar bears in the Beaufort Sea. Using stepwise procedures we generated resource selection models of habitat use. Sea ice characteristics and ocean depths at known polar bear locations were compared to the same features at randomly selected locations. Models generated for each of four seasons confirmed complexities of habitat use by polar bears and their response to numerous factors. Bears preferred shallow water areas where different ice types intersected. Variation among seasons was reflected mainly in differential selection of total ice concentration, ice stages, floe sizes, and their interactions. Distance to the nearest ice interface was a significant term in models for three seasons. Water depth was selected as a significant term in all seasons, possibly reflecting higher productivity in shallow water areas. Preliminary tests indicate seasonal models can predict polar bear distribution based on prior sea ice data.

Alaska↗

USGS2009

Delayed conifer mortality after fuel reduction treatments: Interactive effects of fuel, fire intensity, and bark beetles

Many low‐elevation dry forests of the western United States contain more small trees and fewer large trees, more down woody debris, and less diverse and vigorous understory plant communities compared to conditions under historical fire regimes. These altered structural conditions may contribute to increased probability of unnaturally severe wildfires, susceptibility to uncharacteristic insect outbreaks, and drought‐related mortality. Broad‐scale fuel reduction and restoration treatments are proposed to promote stand development on trajectories toward more sustainable structures. Little research to date, however, has quantified the effects of these treatments on the ecosystem, especially delayed and latent tree mortality resulting directly or indirectly from treatments. In this paper, we explore complex hypotheses relating to the cascade of effects that influence ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) and Douglas‐fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) mortality using structural equation modeling (SEM). We used annual census and plot data through six growing seasons after thinning and four growing seasons after burning from a replicated, operational‐scale, completely randomized experiment conducted in northeastern Oregon, USA, as part of the national Fire and Fire Surrogate study. Treatments included thin, burn, thin followed by burn (thin + burn), and control. Burn and thin + burn treatments increased the proportion of dead trees while the proportion of dead trees declined or remained constant in thin and control units, although the density of dead trees was essentially unchanged with treatment. Most of the new mortality (96%) occurred within two years of treatment and was attributed to bark beetles. Bark beetle‐caused tree mortality, while low overall, was greatest in thin + burn treatments. SEM results indicate that the probability of mortality of large‐diameter ponderosa pine from bark beetles and wood borers was directly related to surface fire severity and bole charring, which in turn depended on fire intensity, which was greater in units where thinning increased large woody fuels. These results have implications when deciding among management options for restoring ecosystem health in similar ponderosa pine and Douglas‐fir forests.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2001

Determination of the sources of nitrate contamination in karst springs using isotopic and chemical indicators

The sources of nitrate (NO-3) in groundwater of the shallow karst aquifer in southwestern Illinois' sinkhole plain were investigated using chemical and isotopic techniques. The groundwater in this aquifer is an important source of potable water for about half of the residents of the sinkhole plain area. Previous work has shown that groundwater from approximately 18% of the wells in the sinkhole plain has NO-3 concentrations in excess of the USEPA's drinking water standard of 10 mg N/1. Relative to background levels, the NO-3 concentrations in water from 52% of the wells, and probably all of the springs in the study area, are anomalously high, suggesting that sources other than naturally occurring soil organic matter have contributed additional NO-3 to groundwater in the shallow karst aquifer. This information, and the dominance of agriculture in the study area, suggest that agrichemical contributions may be significant. To test this hypothesis, water samples from 10 relatively large karst springs were collected during four different seasons and analyzed for inorganic constituents, dissolved organic carbon, atrazine, and ??15N and ??18O of the NO-3 ions. The isotopic data were most definitive and suggested that the sources of NO-3 in spring water are dominated by N-fertilizer with some possible influence of atmospheric NO-3 and, to a much lesser extent, human and/or animal waste. Differences in the isotopic composition of NO-3 and some of the chemical characteristics were observed during the four consecutive seasons in which spring water samples were collected. Isotopic values for ??15N and ??18O of the NO-3 ranged from 3.2??? to 19.1??? and from 7.2??? to 18.7???, respectively. The trend of ??15N and ??18O data for NO-3 also indicated that a significant degree of denitrification is occurring in the shallow karst hydrologic system (within the soil zone, the epikarst and the shallow karst aquifer) prior to discharging to springs. ?? 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Chemical Geology↗