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USGS2020

Probabilistic application of an integrated catchment-estuary-coastal system model to assess the evolution of inlet-interrupted coasts over the 21st century

Inlet-interrupted sandy coasts are dynamic and complex coastal systems with continuously evolving geomorphological behaviors under the influences of both climate change and human activities. These coastal systems are of great importance to society (e.g., providing habitats, navigation, and recreational activities) and are affected by both oceanic and terrestrial processes. Therefore, the evolution of these inlet-interrupted coasts is better assessed by considering the entirety of the Catchment-Estuary-Coastal (CEC) systems, under plausible future scenarios for climate change and increasing pressures due to population growth and human activities. Such a holistic assessment of the long-term evolution of CEC systems can be achieved via reduced-complexity modeling techniques, which are also ably quantifying the uncertainties associated with the projections due to their lower simulation times. Here, we develop a novel probabilistic modeling framework to quantify the input-driven uncertainties associated with the evolution of CEC systems over the 21 st century. In this new approach, probabilistic assessment of the evolution of inlet-interrupted coasts is achieved by (1) probabilistically computing the exchange sediment volume between the inlet-estuary system and its adjacent coast, and (2) distributing the computed sediment volumes along the inlet-interrupted coast. The model is applied at three case study sites: Alsea estuary (United States), Dyfi estuary (United Kingdom), and Kalutara inlet (Sri Lanka). Model results indicate that there are significant uncertainties in projected volume exchange at all the CEC systems (min-max range of 2.0 million cubic meters in 2100 for RCP 8.5), and the uncertainties in these projected volumes illustrate the need for probabilistic modeling approaches to evaluate the long-term evolution of CEC systems. A comparison of 50 th percentile probabilistic projections with deterministic estimates shows that the deterministic approach overestimates the sediment volume exchange in 2100 by 15–30% at Alsea and Kalutara estuary systems. Projections of coastline change obtained for the case study sites show that accounting for all key processes governing coastline change along inlet-interrupted coasts in computing coastline change results in projections that are between 20 and 134% greater than the projections that would be obtained if only the Bruun effect were taken into account, underlining the inaccuracies associated with using the Bruun rule at inlet-interrupted coasts.

Frontiers in Applied Mathematics and Statistics↗

USGS2022

Undeveloped and developed phases in the centennial evolution of a barrier-marsh-lagoon system: The case of Long Beach Island, New Jersey

Barrier islands and their associated backbarrier environments protect mainland population centers and infrastructure from storm impacts, support biodiversity, and provide long-term carbon storage, among other ecosystem services. Despite their socio-economic and ecological importance, the response of coupled barrier-marsh-lagoon environments to sea-level rise is poorly understood. Undeveloped barrier-marsh-lagoon systems typically respond to sea-level rise through the process of landward migration, driven by storm overwash and landward mainland marsh expansion. Such response, however, can be affected by human development and engineering activities such as lagoon dredging and shoreline stabilization. To better understand the difference in the response between developed and undeveloped barrier-marsh-lagoon environments to sea-level rise, we perform a local morphologic analysis that describes the evolution of Long Beach Island (LBI), New Jersey, over the last 182 years. We find that between 1840 and 1934 the LBI system experienced landward migration of all five boundaries, including 171 meters of shoreline retreat. Between the 1920s and 1950s, however, there was a significant shift in system behavior that coincided with the onset of groin construction, which was enhanced by beach nourishment and lagoon dredging practices. From 1934 to 2022 the LBI system experienced ~22 meters of shoreline progradation and a rapid decline in marsh platform extent. Additionally, we extend a morphodynamic model to describe the evolution of the system in terms of five geomorphic boundaries: the ocean shoreline and backbarrier-marsh interface, the seaward and landward lagoon-marsh boundaries, and the landward limit of the inland marsh. We couple this numerical modeling effort with the map analysis during the undeveloped phase of LBI evolution, between 1840 and 1934. Despite its simplicity, the modeling framework can describe the average cross-shore evolution of the barrier-marsh-lagoon system during this period without accounting for human landscape modifications, supporting the premise that natural processes were the key drivers of morphological change. Overall, these results suggest that anthropogenic effects have played a major role in the evolution of LBI over the past century by altering overwash fluxes and marsh-lagoon geometry; this is likely the case for other barrier-marsh-lagoon environments around the world.

New Jersey↗

USGS2006

Niche evolution and adaptive radiation: Testing the order of trait divergence

In the course of an adaptive radiation, the evolution of niche parameters is of particular interest for understanding modes of speciation and the consequences for coexistence of related species within communities. We pose a general question: In the course of an evolutionary radiation, do traits related to within-community niche differences (?? niche) evolve before or after differentiation of macrohabitat affinity or climatic tolerances (?? niche)? Here we introduce a new test to address this question, based on a modification of the method of independent contrasts. The divergence order test (DOT) is based on the average age of the nodes on a tree, weighted by the absolute magnitude of the contrast at each node for a particular trait. The comparison of these weighted averages reveals whether large divergences for one trait have occurred earlier or later in the course of diversification, relative to a second trait; significance is determined by bootstrapping from maximum-likelihood ancestral state reconstructions. The method is applied to the evolution of Ceanothus, a woody plant group in California, in which co-occurring species exhibit significant differences in a key leaf trait (specific leaf area) associated with contrasting physiological and life history strategies. Co-occurring species differ more for this trait than expected under a null model of community assembly. This ?? niche difference evolved early in the divergence of two major subclades within Ceanothus, whereas climatic distributions (?? niche traits) diversified later within each of the subclades. However, rapid evolution of climate parameters makes inferences of early divergence events highly uncertain, and differentiation of the ?? niche might have taken place throughout the evolution of the group, without leaving a clear phylogenetic signal. Similar patterns observed in several plant and animal groups suggest that early divergence of ?? niche traits might be a common feature of niche evolution in many adaptive radiations. ?? 2006 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecology↗

USGS2014

Predictions of barrier island berm evolution in a time-varying storm climatology

Low-lying barrier islands are ubiquitous features of the world's coastlines, and the processes responsible for their formation, maintenance, and destruction are related to the evolution of smaller, superimposed features including sand dunes, beach berms, and sandbars. The barrier island and its superimposed features interact with oceanographic forces (e.g., overwash) and exchange sediment with each other and other parts of the barrier island system. These interactions are modulated by changes in storminess. An opportunity to study these interactions resulted from the placement and subsequent evolution of a 2 m high sand berm constructed along the northern Chandeleur Islands, LA. We show that observed berm length evolution is well predicted by a model that was fit to the observations by estimating two parameters describing the rate of berm length change. The model evaluates the probability and duration of berm overwash to predict episodic berm erosion. A constant berm length change rate is also predicted that persists even when there is no overwash. The analysis is extended to a 16 year time series that includes both intraannual and interannual variability of overwash events. This analysis predicts that as many as 10 or as few as 1 day of overwash conditions would be expected each year. And an increase in berm elevation from 2 m to 3.5 m above mean sea level would reduce the expected frequency of overwash events from 4 to just 0.5 event-days per year. This approach can be applied to understanding barrier island and berm evolution at other locations using past and future storm climatologies.

Louisiana↗

USGS2017

Post-rift magmatic evolution of the eastern North American “passive-aggressive” margin

Understanding the evolution of passive margins requires knowledge of temporal and chemical constraints on magmatism following the transition from supercontinent to rifting, to post-rifting evolution. The Eastern North American Margin (ENAM) is an ideal study location as several magmatic pulses occurred in the 200 My following rifting. In particular, the Virginia-West Virginia region of the ENAM has experienced two postrift magmatic pulses at ∼152 Ma and 47 Ma, and thus provides a unique opportunity to study the long-term magmatic evolution of passive margins. Here we present a comprehensive set of geochemical data that includes new 40 Ar/ 39 Ar ages, major and trace-element compositions, and analysis of radiogenic isotopes to further constrain their magmatic history. The Late Jurassic volcanics are bimodal, from basanites to phonolites, while the Eocene volcanics range from picrobasalt to rhyolite. Modeling suggests that the felsic volcanics from both the Late Jurassic and Eocene events are consistent with fractional crystallization. Sr-Nd-Pb systematics for the Late Jurassic event suggests HIMU and EMII components in the magma source that we interpret as upper mantle components rather than crustal interaction. Lithospheric delamination is the best hypothesis for magmatism in Virginia/West Virginia, due to tectonic instabilities that are remnant from the long-term evolution of this margin, resulting in a “passive-aggressive” margin that records multiple magmatic events long after rifting ended.

Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems↗

USGS2011

Hillslope response to knickpoint migration in the Southern Appalachians: Implications for the evolution of post-orogenic landscapes

The southern Appalachians represent a landscape characterized by locally high topographic relief, steep slopes, and frequent mass movement in the absence of significant tectonic forcing for at least the last 200 Ma. The fundamental processes responsible for landscape evolution in a post‐orogenic landscape remain enigmatic. The non‐glaciated Cullasaja River basin of south‐western North Carolina, with uniform lithology, frequent debris flows, and the availability of high‐resolution airborne lidar DEMs, is an ideal natural setting to study landscape evolution in a post‐orogenic landscape through the lens of hillslope–channel coupling. This investigation is limited to channels with upslope contributing areas >2.7 km 2 , a conservative estimate of the transition from fluvial to debris‐flow dominated channel processes. Values of normalized hypsometry, hypsometric integral, and mean slope vs elevation are used for 14 tributary basins and the Cullasaja basin as a whole to characterize landscape evolution following upstream knickpoint migration. Results highlight the existence of a transient spatial relationship between knickpoints present along the fluvial network of the Cullasaja basin and adjacent hillslopes. Metrics of topography (relief, slope gradient) and hillslope activity (landslide frequency) exhibit significant downstream increases below the current position of major knickpoints. The transient effect of knickpoint‐driven channel incision on basin hillslopes is captured by measuring the relief, mean slope steepness, and mass movement frequency of tributary basins and comparing these results with the distance from major knickpoints along the Cullasaja River. A conceptual model of area–elevation and slope distributions is presented that may be representative of post‐orogenic landscape evolution in analogous geologic settings. Importantly, the model explains how knickpoint migration and channel–hillslope coupling is an important factor in tectonically‐inactive (i.e. post‐orogenic) orogens for the maintenance of significant relief, steep slopes, and weathering‐limited hillslopes.

North Carolina↗

USGS2014

Evolution of wear and friction along experimental faults

We investigate the evolution of wear and friction along experimental faults composed of solid rock blocks. This evolution is analyzed through shear experiments along five rock types, and the experiments were conducted in a rotary apparatus at slip velocities of 0.002–0.97 m/s, slip distances from a few millimeters to tens of meters, and normal stress of 0.25–6.9 MPa. The wear and friction measurements and fault surface observations revealed three evolution phases: A) An initial stage (slip distances <50 mm) of wear by failure of isolated asperities associated with roughening of the fault surface; B) a running-in stage of slip distances of 1–3 m with intense wear-rate, failure of many asperities, and simultaneous reduction of the friction coefficient and wear-rate; and C) a steady-state stage that initiates when the fault surface is covered by a gouge layer, and during which both wear-rate and friction coefficient maintain quasi-constant, low levels. While these evolution stages are clearly recognizable for experimental faults made from bare rock blocks, our analysis suggests that natural faults “bypass” the first two stages and slip at gouge-controlled steady-state conditions.

Pure and Applied Geophysics↗

USGS2024

Geologic constraints on the formation and evolution of Saturn’s mid-sized moons

Saturn’s mid-sized icy moons have complex relationships with Saturn’s interior, the rings, and with each other, which can be expressed in their shapes, interiors, and geology. Observations of their physical states can, thus, provide important constraints on the ages and formation mechanism(s) of the moons, which in turn informs our understanding of the formation and evolution of Saturn and its rings. Here, we describe the cratering records of the mid-sized moons and the value and limitations of their use for constraining the histories of the moons. We also discuss observational constraints on the interior structures of the moons and geologically-derived inferences on their thermal budgets through time. Overall, the geologic records of the moons (with the exception of Mimas) include evidence of epochs of high heat flows, short- and long-lived subsurface oceans, extensional tectonics, and considerable cratering. Curiously, Mimas presents no clear evidence of an ocean within its surface geology, but its rotation and orbit indicate a present-day ocean. While the moons need not be primordial to produce the observed levels of interior evolution and geologic activity, there is likely a minimum age associated with their development that has yet to be determined. Uncertainties in the populations impacting the moons makes it challenging to further constrain their formation timeframes using craters, whereas the characteristics of their cores and other geologic inferences of their thermal evolutions may help narrow down their potential histories. Disruptive collisions may have also played an important role in the formation and evolution of Saturn’s mid-sized moons, and even the rings of Saturn, although more sophisticated modeling is needed to determine the collision conditions that produce rings and moons that fit the observational constraints. Overall, the existence and physical characteristics of Saturn’s mid-sized moons provide critical benchmarks for the development of formation theories.

Space Science Reviews↗

USGS2016

Organic petrology and geochemistry of mudrocks from the lacustrine Lucaogou Formation, Santanghu Basin, northwest China: Application to lake basin evolution

Exploration for tight oil in the frontier Santanghu Basin of northwest China has resulted in recent commercial discoveries sourced from the lacustrine Upper Permian Lucaogou Formation, already considered a “world class source rock” in the Junggar Basin to the west. Here we apply an integrated analytical program to carbonate-dominated mudrocks from the Lucaogou Formation in Santanghu Basin to document the nature of organic matter (OM) in the context of an evolving lake system. The organic-rich samples (TOC 2.8–11.4 wt%; n = 10) were widely spaced from an ~ 200 m cored section, interpreted from textural and mineralogical evidence to document transition from a lower under-filled to an overlying balanced-filled lake. Organic matter is dominated by moderate to strongly fluorescent amorphous material with Type I geochemical signature (HI values 510–755; n = 10) occurring in a continuum from lamellar stringers, 10–20 μm thick, some ≥ 1 mm in length (possible microbial mat; preserved only in lower under-filled section) to finely-disseminated amorphous groundmass intimately intermixed with mineral matrix. Biomarkers for methanotrophs and photosynthetic cyanobacteria indicate a complex microbial consortium. A unicellular prasinophyte green alga(?), similar to Tasmanites in marine rocks, is present as discrete flattened discs 50–100 μm in diameter. Type III OM including vitrinite (some fluorescent) and inertinite also is abundant. Solid bitumen, indicating local kerogen conversion, fills voids and occurs throughout the cored section. Vitrinite reflectance values are 0.47–0.58%, consistent with strong OM fluorescence but may be “suppressed”. Other proxies, e.g., biomarker parameters, indicate the Lucaogou Formation is in the early oil window at this location. On average, slightly more amorphous OM and telalginite are present in the lower section, consistent with a shallow, stratified, saline environment with low sediment dilution. More inertinite is present in the upper section, indicating greater terrestrial influx and consistent with higher quartz and plagioclase content (dominantly authigenic chalcedony and albite). Laminated mudstones in the upper section indicate anoxia prevented bioturbation from benthic grazing, also indicating stratified water column conditions. A decrease upsection in authigenic dolomite with reciprocal increase of ankerite/siderite is consistent with decreasing salinity, as is an overall decrease in gammacerane index values. These observations suggest evolution from a shallow, stratified evaporative (saline) setting to a deeper, stratified freshwater basin with higher water input during Lucaogou deposition. The evolution from an under-filled to balance-filled lake in Santanghu Basin is similar to Lucaogou deposition in Junggar Basin, suggesting similar tectonic and climatic controls. Paleoclimate interpretations from other researchers in this area suggested an evolution from semi-arid to humid conditions during the Roadian; we interpret that the evolution from an under-filled to balanced-filled lake seen in our data is in response to climate change, and may represent increased groundwater delivery to the Santanghu Basin.

International Journal of Coal Geology↗

USGS2009

Calibration of an estuarine sediment transport model to sediment fluxes as an intermediate step for simulation of geomorphic evolution

Modeling geomorphic evolution in estuaries is necessary to model the fate of legacy contaminants in the bed sediment and the effect of climate change, watershed alterations, sea level rise, construction projects, and restoration efforts. Coupled hydrodynamic and sediment transport models used for this purpose typically are calibrated to water level, currents, and/or suspended-sediment concentrations. However, small errors in these tidal-timescale models can accumulate to cause major errors in geomorphic evolution, which may not be obvious. Here we present an intermediate step towards simulating decadal-timescale geomorphic change: calibration to estimated sediment fluxes (mass/time) at two cross-sections within an estuary. Accurate representation of sediment fluxes gives confidence in representation of sediment supply to and from the estuary during those periods. Several years of sediment flux data are available for the landward and seaward boundaries of Suisun Bay, California, the landward-most embayment of San Francisco Bay. Sediment flux observations suggest that episodic freshwater flows export sediment from Suisun Bay, while gravitational circulation during the dry season imports sediment from seaward sources. The Regional Oceanic Modeling System (ROMS), a three-dimensional coupled hydrodynamic/sediment transport model, was adapted for Suisun Bay, for the purposes of hindcasting 19th and 20th century bathymetric change, and simulating geomorphic response to sea level rise and climatic variability in the 21st century. The sediment transport parameters were calibrated using the sediment flux data from 1997 (a relatively wet year) and 2004 (a relatively dry year). The remaining years of data (1998, 2002, 2003) were used for validation. The model represents the inter-annual and annual sediment flux variability, while net sediment import/export is accurately modeled for three of the five years. The use of sediment flux data for calibrating an estuarine geomorphic model guarantees that modeled geomorphic evolution will not exceed the actual supply of sediment from the watershed and seaward sources during the calibration period. Decadal trends in sediment supply (and therefore fluxes) can accumulate to alter decadal geomorphic change. Therefore, simulations of future geomorphic evolution are bolstered by this intermediate calibration step.

Continental Shelf Research↗

USGS2015

Geologic control on the evolution of the inner shelf morphology offshore of the Mississippi barrier islands, northern Gulf of Mexico, USA

Between 2008 and 2013, high-resolution geophysical surveys were conducted around the Mississippi barrier islands and offshore. The sonar surveys included swath and single-beam bathymetry, sidescan, and chirp subbottom data collection. The geophysical data were groundtruthed using vibracore sediment collection. The results provide insight into the evolution of the inner shelf and the relationship between the near surface geologic framework and the morphology of the coastal zone. This study focuses on the buried Pleistocene fluvial deposits and late Holocene shore-oblique sand ridges offshore of Petit Bois Island and Petit Bois Pass. Prior to this study, the physical characteristics, evolution, and interrelationship of the ridges between both the shelf geology and the adjacent barrier island platform had not been evaluated. Numerous studies elsewhere along the coastal margin attribute shoal origin and sand-ridge evolution to hydrodynamic processes in shallow water (<20 m). Here we characterize the correlation between the geologic framework and surface morphology and demonstrate that the underlying stratigraphy must also be considered when developing an evolutionary conceptual model. It is important to understand this near surface, nearshore dynamic in order to understand how the stratigraphy influences the long-term response of the coastal zone to sea-level rise. The study also contributes to a growing body of work characterizing shore-oblique sand ridges which, along with the related geology, are recognized as increasingly important components to a nearshore framework whose origins and evolution must be understood and inventoried to effectively manage the coastal zone.

Continental Shelf Research↗

USGS2008

Reverse Evolution of Armor Plates in the Threespine Stickleback

Faced with sudden environmental changes, animals must either adapt to novel environments or go extinct. Thus, study of the mechanisms underlying rapid adaptation is crucial not??only for the understanding of natural evolutionary processes but also for the understanding of human-induced evolutionary change, which is an increasingly important problem [1-8]. In the present study, we demonstrate that the frequency of completely plated threespine stickleback fish (Gasterosteus aculeatus) has increased in an urban freshwater lake (Lake Washington, Seattle, Washington) within the last 40 years. This is a dramatic example of "reverse evolution," [9] because the general evolutionary trajectory is toward armor-plate reduction in freshwater sticklebacks [10]. On the basis of our genetic studies and simulations, we propose that the most likely cause of reverse evolution is increased selection for the completely plated morph, which we suggest could result from higher levels of trout predation after a sudden increase in water transparency during the early 1970s. Rapid evolution was facilitated by the existence of standing allelic variation in Ectodysplasin (Eda), the gene that underlies the major plate-morph locus [11]. The Lake Washington stickleback thus provides a novel example of reverse evolution, which is probably caused by a change in allele frequency at the major plate locus in response to a changing predation regime. ?? 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Current Biology↗

USGS2016

Trace elements at the intersection of marine biological and geochemical evolution

Life requires a wide variety of bioessential trace elements to act as structural components and reactive centers in metalloenzymes. These requirements differ between organisms and have evolved over geological time, likely guided in some part by environmental conditions. Until recently, most of what was understood regarding trace element concentrations in the Precambrian oceans was inferred by extrapolation, geochemical modeling, and/or genomic studies. However, in the past decade, the increasing availability of trace element and isotopic data for sedimentary rocks of all ages has yielded new, and potentially more direct, insights into secular changes in seawater composition – and ultimately the evolution of the marine biosphere. Compiled records of many bioessential trace elements (including Ni, Mo, P, Zn, Co, Cr, Se, and I) provide new insight into how trace element abundance in Earth's ancient oceans may have been linked to biological evolution. Several of these trace elements display redox-sensitive behavior, while others are redox-sensitive but not bioessential (e.g., Cr, U). Their temporal trends in sedimentary archives provide useful constraints on changes in atmosphere-ocean redox conditions that are linked to biological evolution, for example, the activity of oxygen-producing, photosynthetic cyanobacteria. In this review, we summarize available Precambrian trace element proxy data, and discuss how temporal trends in the seawater concentrations of specific trace elements may be linked to the evolution of both simple and complex life. We also examine several biologically relevant and/or redox-sensitive trace elements that have yet to be fully examined in the sedimentary rock record (e.g., Cu, Cd, W) and suggest several directions for future studies.

Earth-Science Reviews↗

USGS2023

Tracing magmatic genesis and evolution through single zircon crystals from successive supereruptions from the Socorro Caldera Complex, USA

Large volume rhyolitic ignimbrite volcanism is a significant contributor to the evolving crust. The introduction of high-silica material into the upper crust, differentiation within the middle crust, and partial melting in the lower crust contributes to geochemical and isotopic evolution of the crust. Developing accurate models for the genetic evolution of these events is dependent upon geochronology to determine rates of magmatic processes as model constraints. We present new zircon high-precision CA-ID-TIMS U-Pb geochronology and MC-ICPMS Hf isotope geochemistry for four ignimbrites from the nested caldera complex near Socorro, New Mexico (USA), within the Mogollon-Datil volcanic field. In agreement with past 40 Ar- 39 Ar data, interpretations of new U-Pb data indicate eruptions from the Socorro caldera cluster were pulsed. These pulses were intermittently spaced, and a volcanic hiatus following the Hells Mesa Tuff at 33.442 ± 0.015 Ma was interrupted by four successive eruptions, beginning with the La Jencia Tuff at 29.158 ± 0.025 Ma and finishing with the South Canyon Tuff at 28.066 ± 0.021 Ma. Zircon age spectra became more protracted with each eruption, exhibiting age dispersions ranging from 0.347 Myr in the Hells Mesa Tuff to 4.502 Myr in the South Canyon Tuff. The increased dispersion is paralleled by an increase in the proportion of normally discordant grains, indicative of xenocryst incorporation. These protracted age spectra are not necessarily a function of thermal maturation in the middle to upper crust due to long-lived magma chambers. Rather, they are likely the result of increased melting of zircon-bearing lower crust due to deep thermal maturation from repeated juvenile magma injections based on the incorporation of zircon material at the melt source. In contrast, the Hf isotope record is volumetrically dominated by autocrystic zircon domains and becomes more radiogenic through time, recording juvenile replenishment of the lower crust during progressive melting. Together, these data record the protracted evolution of the lower crust sampled by ignimbrites, lend insight into that evolution, and emphasize the need for detailed interpretation of high-precision datasets to advance volcanic models.

Arizona, New Mexico↗

USGS2026

Long-term erosion dynamics and morphological evolution of composite volcanoes: Insights from analogue modelling

Volcanoes undergo rapid growth and extended periods of repose during which erosion dominates, representing natural laboratories for studying erosion patterns and rates across various timescales. However, complex constructional and degradational histories and limited temporal constraints make analyzing volcano erosion dynamics challenging. Analogue models with rainfall-induced runoff offer a simplified and controlled setting to explore volcanic erosion processes and evolution with well-constrained initial cone geometries. This study documents the morphological evolution of analogue volcanoes during rainfall simulation experiments, scaled to reflect natural pristine composite volcanoes. Different cone types, with varied slope profiles and summit craters, are analyzed using photogrammetry-derived digital elevation models with sub-millimeter resolution. Using these models, we quantify the evolution of morphometric parameters, including cone and drainage basin geometries, denudation and erosion rates. Most morphometric parameters and erosion rates show rapid initial variations, followed by more gradual trends. As erosion progresses, the hypsometric integral decreases for cones with initial linear slope profiles and increases for those with concave slopes, highlighting the importance of initial slope profiles in interpreting degrees of erosion. The presence of a summit crater introduces unique erosional processes, shaping wider basins during an initial erosional phase. All cone types develop towards a geometric equilibrium state where the initial diverse morphometric values converge for the hypsometry integral, drainage density, and irregularity index. Initial slope profile and the presence of a summit crater do not significantly affect the topography of the final erosional phase, underscoring the concept of equifinality. These analogue experiments enhance our understanding of real-world volcanic landscape evolution.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗

USGS2006

Introduction to ‘Antarctic climate evolution: View from the margin’

This special issue on “Antarctic Climate Evolution—view from the margin” presents results from modelling studies and reports on geoscience data aimed at improving our understanding of the behaviour of the Antarctic ice sheet and the climate of the region. This research field is of interest because of the sensitivity of the polar regions to global warming, and because of the influence of the Antarctic ice sheet on global sea level and climate through most if not all of the Cenozoic Era. The Antarctic ice sheet both responds to and forces changes on global climate and sea level. We need to be aware of the scale and frequency of these changes if we are to understand past patterns of environmental change elsewhere on earth. It was only three decades ago that we discovered from strata drilled in shelf basins on the Antarctic margin that the Antarctic ice sheet had a history that predated the Quaternary ice ages by over 20 million years ( Hayes et al., 1975 ). Later that year the first interpretation of Antarctic glacial history through the Cenozoic Era from oxygen isotopes, recorded in foraminifera from deep-sea sediment cores, was published ( Shackleton and Kennett, 1975 ). Revisions with a more extensive database have modified the story a little ( Miller et al., 1987 , Zachos et al., 2001 ), and there have been recent attempts to resolve the temperature–ice volume ambiguity ( Lear et al., 2000 ). However, reports on strata drilled on the Antarctic margin have unambiguously shown the character of this huge ice sheet, which was oscillating in the Oligocene ( Barrett et al., 1987 , Barrett, 1999 ) with a period and magnitude comparable with the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets of the Quaternary ( Naish et al., 2001a , Naish et al., 2001b ). In this issue we present further research on the history of the Antarctic ice sheet from Oligocene to recent times, most of them from the Antarctic margin, but with some on the nature of the deep-sea isotope record, and others using recently developed modeling techniques to investigate the influence of atmosphere, ocean and biosphere on past Antarctic climate. This special issue is the third in three years on the theme of Antarctic Climate Evolution. The first followed a workshop in Erice, Sicily, in 2001 to report on results from ANTOSTRAT, a SCAR-sponsored project for gathering and analysing circum-Antarctic seismic data for planning and promoting offshore drilling for climate history. The introduction to that issue (Florindo et al., 2003) provides a review of the recent history of circum-Antarctic drilling by the Ocean Drilling Program (Legs 113, 114, 119, 120, 177, 178, 188 and 189) and the Cape Roberts Project. For a more comprehensive review of earlier drilling in the Ross Sea region (Deep Sea Drilling Project Leg 28, Dry Valley Drilling Project, McMurdo Sound Sediment and Tectonic Studies, Cenozoic Investigations in the western Ross Sea) see Hambrey and Barrett (1993). The first of these issues (Florindo et al., 2003) featured a global plate reconstruction of the Southern Hemisphere through Cenozoic time with emphasis on evolution of Cenozoic seaways (Lawver and Gahagan, 2003) along with a study of the inception and early evolution of the EAIS using a new coupled global climate (GCM)–dynamic ice sheet model (DeConto and Pollard, 2003b), as well as data from recent drilling around the margin covering time period from Cretaceous to the present. A second special issue on the same theme (Florindo et al., 2005) also featured a mix of modelling and data papers with a focus on the Eocene–Oligocene boundary and the initiation of ice sheet growth, including a pioneering attempt to evaluate the relative influence of fluvial versus glacial processes in shaping the landscape of the Prydz Bay sector of Antarctica (Jamieson et al., 2005). The remainder of the issue comprised further papers on seismic stratigraphy and reports from drilling around the margin. The papers to be found in this special issue, like the previous two, maintain the mix of modelling- and data-oriented papers that reflect the range of this research.

Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology↗

USGS2023

Long short-term memory models to quantify long-term evolution of streamflow discharge and groundwater depth in Alabama

Long short-term memory (LSTM) models have been shown to be efficient for rainfall-runoff modeling, and to a lesser extent, for groundwater depth forecasting. In this study, LSTMs were applied to quantify the spatiotemporal evolution of surface and subsurface hydrographs in Alabama in the Southeastern United States, where water sustainability has not been fully quantified across spatiotemporal scales. First, the surface water LSTM model with extensive dynamic (precipitation and other weather variables) and static (basin characteristics) inputs predicted the main characteristics of streamflow for six years at 19 gauged basins in Alabama. The model tended to underestimate extremely high streamflow but adding drainage density as an input feature slightly improved the predictions of extreme events. Second, to predict the groundwater depth evolution, a groundwater LSTM (GW-LSTM) model was proposed and applied using static inputs capturing the aquifers' hydrogeological properties and dynamic inputs of meteorological information. Three precipitation scenarios were also explored to evaluate the groundwater hydrograph evolution in the next two decades. The GW-LSTM model predicted the general trend of daily groundwater depth fluctuations (at 21 wells distributed across Alabama from 1990 to 2021) including most extremely high groundwater levels, and recovered groundwater depth for locations withheld from model training and validation. This study, therefore, extended the application of LSTMs in quantifying the spatiotemporal evolution of surface water and groundwater, two manifestations of a single integrated resource.

Alabama↗

USGS2004

A physical model for strain accumulation in the San Francisco Bay region: Stress evolution since 1838

Understanding of the behavior of plate boundary zones has progressed to the point where reasonably comprehensive physical models can predict their evolution. The San Andreas fault system in the San Francisco Bay region (SFBR) is dominated by a few major faults whose behavior over about one earthquake cycle is fairly well understood. By combining the past history of large ruptures on SFBR faults with a recently proposed physical model of strain accumulation in the SFBR, we derive the evolution of regional stress from 1838 until the present. This effort depends on (1) an existing compilation of the source properties of historic and contemporary SFBR earthquakes based on documented shaking, geodetic data, and seismic data (Bakun, 1999) and (2) a few key parameters of a simple regional viscoelastic coupling model constrained by recent GPS data (Pollitz and Nyst, 2004). Although uncertainties abound in the location, magnitude, and fault geometries of historic ruptures and the physical model relies on gross simplifications, the resulting stress evolution model is sufficiently detailed to provide a useful window into the past stress history. In the framework of Coulomb failure stress, we find that virtually all M ??? 5.8 earthquakes prior to 1906 and M ??? 5.5 earthquakes after 1906 are consistent with stress triggering from previous earthquakes. These events systematically lie in zones of predicted stress concentration elevated 5-10 bars above the regional average. The SFBR is predicted to have emerged from the 1906 "shadow" in about 1980, consistent with the acceleration in regional seismicity at that time. The stress evolution model may be a reliable indicator of the most likely areas to experience M ??? 5.5 shocks in the future.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗