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At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources
USGS1993

Epidemic pox and malaria in native forest birds

Studies by Warner in the 1950’s and van Riper in the 1970’s identified disease as a potential limiting factor in the distribution and abundance of Hawaii’s native forest birds. Mosquito-transmitted protozoan and viral infections caused by malarial parasites and pox virus were especially significant. Both organisms were introduced to the islands after the arrival of Europeans and are thought to have affected avian communities the same way that measles devastated native Hawaiian peoples.

Hawai'i↗
USGS2022

Informing surveillance through the characterization of outbreak potential of chronic wasting disease in white-tailed deer

Understanding the role that an environmental prion reservoir plays in the outbreak dynamics of chronic wasting disease (CWD) in free ranging white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) is critical for the allocation of disease surveillance resources by state and provincial wildlife agencies. We hypothesized that demographic, ecological, and epidemiological configurations naturally attenuate epidemic risk despite the introduction of infectious prions into a susceptible population of deer, but the magnitude of infectious prions in the environmental prion reservoir complicate outbreak expectations. We developed a Susceptible-Latent-Exposed-Infective (SLEI) compartment model to represent the dynamics of CWD epidemics in free-ranging white-tailed deer, then used the basic reproductive ratio ( R 0 "> R0 ) to pinpoint counties under which pathogenic introduction (transport of infectious bodily fluids, tissues, and carcasses through natural or anthropogenic means) naturally produced (or failed to produce) an epidemic. We found that the outlook for an epidemic hinged on transmission rates, the magnitude of environmental contamination, and system type (density-, frequency-, or density/frequency-dependent). CWD can persistently infect individuals living in a contaminated environment even if direct transmission is insufficient to sustain circulation. Theoretical results show that transmission of CWD cannot be exclusively density dependent, and must behave as either a mix between frequency and density dependent, or strictly frequency dependent. While the compartment model is a simplistic representation of reality and did not contain many complicating biological considerations, it was immediately useful in hypothesis generation, motivating the collection of additional data for use in more biologically detailed models, and in the allocation of finite surveillance resources to place emphasis on data collection in areas where an introduction of infectious prions is comparatively more likely to result in an epidemic.

Ecological Modelling↗
USGS2011

Modeling routes of chronic wasting disease transmission: Environmental prion persistence promotes deer population decline and extinction

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a fatal disease of deer, elk, and moose transmitted through direct, animal-to-animal contact, and indirectly, via environmental contamination. Considerable attention has been paid to modeling direct transmission, but despite the fact that CWD prions can remain infectious in the environment for years, relatively little information exists about the potential effects of indirect transmission on CWD dynamics. In the present study, we use simulation models to demonstrate how indirect transmission and the duration of environmental prion persistence may affect epidemics of CWD and populations of North American deer. Existing data from Colorado, Wyoming, and Wisconsin's CWD epidemics were used to define plausible short-term outcomes and associated parameter spaces. Resulting long-term outcomes range from relatively low disease prevalence and limited host-population decline to host-population collapse and extinction. Our models suggest that disease prevalence and the severity of population decline is driven by the duration that prions remain infectious in the environment. Despite relatively low epidemic growth rates, the basic reproductive number, R0, may be much larger than expected under the direct-transmission paradigm because the infectious period can vastly exceed the host's life span. High prion persistence is expected to lead to an increasing environmental pool of prions during the early phases (i.e. approximately during the first 50 years) of the epidemic. As a consequence, over this period of time, disease dynamics will become more heavily influenced by indirect transmission, which may explain some of the observed regional differences in age and sex-specific disease patterns. This suggests management interventions, such as culling or vaccination, will become increasingly less effective as CWD epidemics progress.

Colorado, Wisconsin, Wyoming↗
USGS2020

Bark beetle-affected forests provide elk only a marginal refuge from hunters

For nearly 2 decades, the forests of the Rocky Mountains in the United States experienced a bark-beetle ( Dendoctronus ponderosae ) epidemic. The number of dead and falling trees from this epidemic likely will affect how elk ( Cervus canadensis ) and hunters use the forest and their interactions. Downed trees potentially create a component of refuge habitat that could affect the effectiveness of hunting to regulate abundance of growing elk populations. We evaluated how forests affected by bark beetles in south-central Wyoming, USA, influenced resource selection of 50 female elk and 374 hunters in 2012–2016, and interactions between elk and hunters. We employed global positioning system (GPS) technology on elk and hunters, and developed a satellite-derived land classification specifically depicting beetle-affected forests. We tested the predictions that elk would increase use of beetle-killed areas from summer to the hunting season, and that hunters would avoid beetle-killed areas regardless of elk use. Elk increased use of beetle-killed areas during hunting seasons as did hunters during the archery season; however, during the rifle season, hunters avoided beetle-killed areas. Nevertheless, during the rifle season, areas of beetle-kill with a high probability of elk occurrence dampened the aversion hunters had towards beetle-killed areas. Therefore, in contrast to our expectations, forests that have been altered by the bark-beetle epidemic may only function marginally as a refuge for elk. Our study area was at the beginning of the tree-fall phase (i.e., ~3–7 yr after peak infestation) of the bark-beetle epidemic; thus, future research efforts should focus on how a continued increase in downed trees will influence interactions between elk and hunters. At current levels of tree fall, however, beetle-kill should not limit the ability of managers to regulate elk herds through harvest.

Wyoming↗
USGS2020

Anticipating future learning affects current control decisions: A comparison between passive and active adaptive management in an epidemiological setting

Infectious disease epidemics present a difficult task for policymakers, requiring the implementation of control strategies under significant time constraints and uncertainty. Mathematical models can be used to predict the outcome of control interventions, providing useful information to policymakers in the event of such an epidemic. However, these models suffer in the early stages of an outbreak from a lack of accurate, relevant information regarding the dynamics and spread of the disease and the efficacy of control. As such, recommendations provided by these models are often incorporated in an ad hoc fashion, as and when more reliable information becomes available. In this work, we show that such trial-and-error-type approaches to management, which do not formally take into account the resolution of uncertainty and how control actions affect this, can lead to sub-optimal management outcomes. We compare three approaches to managing a theoretical epidemic: a non-adaptive management (AM) approach that does not use real-time outbreak information to adapt control, a passive AM approach that incorporates real-time information if and when it becomes available, and an active AM approach that explicitly incorporates the future resolution of uncertainty through gathering real-time information into its initial recommendations. The structured framework of active AM encourages the specification of quantifiable objectives, models of system behaviour and possible control and monitoring actions, followed by an iterative learning and control phase that is able to employ complex control optimisations and resolve system uncertainty. The result is a management framework that is able to provide dynamic, long-term projections to help policymakers meet the objectives of management. We investigate in detail the effect of different methods of incorporating up-to-date outbreak information. We find that, even in a highly simplified system, the method of incorporating new data can lead to different results that may influence initial policy decisions, with an active AM approach to management providing better information that can lead to more desirable outcomes from an epidemic.

Journal of Theoretical Biology↗
USGS1947

Mortality of smelt, Osmerus mordax (Mitchill), in Lakes Huron and Michigan during the fall and winter of 1942-1943

The mortality that nearly exterminated the huge stocks of smelt in Lakes Huron and Michigan during the fall and winter of 1942–1943 appears to have originated in central Lake Huron in the Saginaw Bay area in late September or early October 1942. The mortality spread rapidly northward reaching the Drummond Island area about the latter part of October and the St. Ignace region of the Straits of Mackinac near the end of the month. In the latter part of October smelt died also in the Canadian waters of Lake Huron including North Channel and Georgian Bay but exact details as to time and course are lacking. There is some evidence that the epidemic had not reached the Ontario shore of central Lake Huron by late May 1943. Spreading through northern Lake Michigan the mortality had penetrated as far south as Grand Traverse Bay by November 19 and as far west as Point Aux Barques, Michigan, by November 26, 1942. Smelt were reported to be dying in Lake Charlevoix, Michigan, in early February 1943, and in Green Bay toward the middle of that month. The mortality did not reach Crystal Lake where in contrast to Lake Charlevoix a dam barred the passage of fish from Lake Michigan. At the time of the 1943 spring spawning run (April) only a few scattered survivors remained from the vast populations. After consideration of possible causes, it was concluded that the mortality could be explained only as resulting from a communicable disease (bacteria or virus). This explanation alone is in harmony with the following facts: the mortality was progressive, spreading from one area into adjacent areas over a period of at least 4 1/2 months and under a great diversity of habitat conditions; only smelt were affected but within the species death overtook fish of all sizes from 2 inches on and all ages of both sexes, mature and immature; the mortality penetrated Lake Charlevoix where the passage of fish to and from Lake Michigan was possible but did not reach Crystal Lake where the passage from Lake Michigan was barred by a dam; the epidemic did not reach other inland lakes where free and easy access from the Great Lakes was impossible nor did it extend to Lakes Superior, Erie, and Ontario. Considered at first as a nuisance and a threat to the native fishes of the Great Lakes, the smelt ultimately became a fish of primary importance to commercial fishermen, sportsmen, and others. In Green Bay, the center of the commercial fishery, smelt became the dominant commercial species, yielding more than 4 million pounds in some years. Almost all of the commercial production was from nets set under the ice. The take by amateurs and others who dipped smelt from streams during the spawning run was even greater, amounting to as much as 5 1/2 million pounds in a single year in the State of Michigan alone (the yield in Wisconsin may have been nearly as great). The mortality of smelt was a severe blow to the nation's war-time food-production program. It is estimated that in 1943, in which year elaborate preparations had been made for the efficient utilization of the spawning-run production, the mortality reduced the output of smelt by about 13 million pounds. The total loss through the present (1946) season can be set in the neighborhood of 50 million pounds. The first indication of a recovery of the smelt came in 1945 when a small amount was produced commercially in Green Bay and numerous light runs occurred in streams tributary to Lakes Huron and Michigan. The general level of abundance in 1945, however, is believed to have been less than 10 per cent of that of “pre-mortality” years. Such information as is available for 1946 suggests considerable further improvement in this year. Given good survival of young, it is anticipated that a large rise in the abundance of smelt can occur in 1947 and that by 1948 or 1949 the size of the populations should no longer be influenced by the number of spawners available in preceding years. The smelt from the Escanaba area of Green Bay were without exception significantly longer and heavier in 1944 and 1945 than were fish of corresponding age captured in the same region in 1941. Furthermore, three of four comparisons indicated significantly greater size in 1945 than in 1944. This improvement in growth rate is believed to have been associated with the reduction in the smelt population brought about by the 1942–1943 mortality.

Transactions of the American Fisheries Society↗
USGS2004

Multi-state analysis of the impacts of avian pox on a population of Serins (Serinus serinus): The importance of estimating recapture rates

Disease is one of the evolutionary forces shaping populations. Recent studies have shown that epidemics like avian pox, malaria, or mycoplasmosis have affected passerine population dynamics, being responsible for the decline of some populations or disproportionately killing males and larger individuals and thus selecting for specific morphotypes. However, few studies have estimated the effects of an epidemic by following individual birds using the capture-recapture approach. Because avian pox can be diagnosed by direct examination of the birds, we are here able to analyze, using multistate models, the development and consequences of an avian pox epidemic affecting in 1996, a population of Serins (Serinus serinus) in northeastern Spain. The epidemics lasted from June to the end of November of 1996, with a maximum apparent prevalence rate > 30% in October. However, recapture rate of sick birds was very high (0.81, range 0.37-0.93) compared to that of healthy birds (0.21, range 0.020-32), which highly inflated apparent prevalence rate. This was additionally supported by the low predicted transition from the state of being uninfected to the state of being infected (0.03, SE 0.03). Once infected, Serin avian pox was very virulent with (15-day) survival rate of infected birds being of only 0.46 (SE 0.17) compared to that of healthy ones (0.87, SE 0.03). Probability of recovery from disease, provided that the bird survived the first two weeks, however, was very high (0.65, SE 0.25). The use of these estimates together with a simple model, allowed us to predict an asymptotic increase to prevalence of about 4% by the end of the outbreak period, followed by a sharp decline, with the only remaining infestations being infected birds that had not yet recovered. This is in contrast to the apparent prevalence of pox and stresses the need to estimate recapture rates when estimating population dynamics parameters. ?? 2004 Museu de Cie??ncies Naturals.

Animal Biodiversity and Conservation↗
USGS2024

Ensemble2: Scenarios ensembling for communication and performance analysis

Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, scenario modeling played a crucial role in shaping the decision-making process of public health policies. Unlike forecasts, scenario projections rely on specific assumptions about the future that consider different plausible states-of-the-world that may or may not be realized and that depend on policy interventions, unpredictable changes in the epidemic outlook, etc. As a consequence, long-term scenario projections require different evaluation criteria than the ones used for traditional short-term epidemic forecasts. Here, we propose a novel ensemble procedure for assessing pandemic scenario projections using the results of the Scenario Modeling Hub (SMH) for COVID-19 in the United States (US). By defining a “scenario ensemble” for each model and the ensemble of models, termed “Ensemble 2 "> 2 ”, we provide a synthesis of potential epidemic outcomes, which we use to assess projections’ performance, bypassing the identification of the most plausible scenario. We find that overall the Ensemble 2 "> 2 models are well-calibrated and provide better performance than the scenario ensemble of individual models. The ensemble procedure accounts for the full range of plausible outcomes and highlights the importance of scenario design and effective communication. The scenario ensembling approach can be extended to any scenario design strategy, with potential refinements including weighting scenarios and allowing the ensembling process to evolve over time.

Epidemics↗
USGS2015

Successful mitigation of viral disease based on a delayed exposure rearing strategy at a large-scale steelhead trout conservation hatchery

In 2009, the largest steelhead trout conservation hatchery in the state of Idaho, Dworshak National Fish Hatchery (NFH), lost over 50% of the juvenile steelhead trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ) population being reared for release. The causative agent of this high mortality was the viral pathogen infectious hematopoietic necrosis virus (IHNV). This was neither the first nor the worst epidemic of IHNV to occur at the hatchery, but it was the worst in over a decade. Genetic analysis of IHNV isolates taken from juveniles suffering epidemic IHN disease in 2009 revealed that the virus was of the M group of IHNV viruses, known to have high virulence for trout. The water supply for steelhead trout rearing at Dworshak NFH is untreated water taken directly from the Clearwater River. Further genetic analysis of IHNV isolates from adults spawned in 2009 indicated that adult steelhead trout in the river (in the hatchery water supply) were the most probable transmission source for the epidemic IHN disease in the juvenile fish. Previously, Dworshak NFH had been able to gain access to reservoir water from behind the Dworshak Dam for nursery egg incubation and the earliest stage of fry rearing, which nearly eliminated incidence of IHN disease in that stage of rearing. Additionally, the nearby Clearwater State Fish Hatchery (SFH), which operates entirely with reservoir water, has never had a case of IHN disease in juvenile steelhead trout. Therefore, staff at Dworshak NFH sought and obtained access to a limited supply of reservoir water for the first few months of outdoor rearing of juvenile steelhead trout, beginning in 2010. This strategy delayed the exposure of juvenile steelhead trout to river water for several months. The effects of this program change were: drastic reduction in IHN disease in juvenile steelhead trout; interruption in the transmission of highly virulent M group IHNV from adult steelhead trout; no interruption in the transmission of low virulent U group IHNV from adult Chinook salmon; and a shift of IHNV types in adult fish spawned at Dworshak NFH in subsequent years from M to U group viruses. While juvenile steelhead trout may still be infected via exposure to IHNV in river water, the disruption of virulent M group IHNV has been successful in dramatically reducing IHN disease in steelhead trout every year since 2010.

Idaho↗
USGS2009

A fungus disease in fishes of the Gulf of Maine

1. A fungus disease of epidemic proportions was found in the common sea herring (Clupea harengus) throughout the Gulf of Maine. 2. The fungus was also found to infect the common winter flounder (Pseudopleuronectes americanus) and the alewife (Pomobolus pseudoharengus). 3. The causative agent was found to be a species of fungus belonging to the genus Ichthyosporidium Caullery and Mesnil (1905). The specific name is tentatively accepted as hoferi Plehn and Muslow (1911). 4. The organism is believed to be a normal parasite to the herring and reaches epidemic proportions only when certain unknown factors are operative. 5. The causative organism was found in herring preserved in 1926, and it is believed that the epidemic has been increasing in severity since that time. 6. It is believed that such an epidermic,once initiated, increases in severity, reaches a peak, and subsides to a subpatent level. The peak is believed to have been reached in 1931. 7. The life history and effects of the organism in the herring and flounder are described. 8. The herring is believed to acquire the infection by the ingestion of parasites liberated from fish in the same school. 9. The flounder is believed to acquire the infection by the consumption of infected herring. 10. The alewife is believed to acquire the infection by ingestion of the parasite during its infrequent association with the herring. 11. Infection is believed to be established by way of the alimentary canal and, once established, to spread throughout the host by way of the blood stream or the lymphatics. 12. Direct cross infection from the herring to the flounder establishes the theory that the parasites in these two hosts are one and the same organism. 13. Direct cross infection experiments from the herring to the flounder eliminate the necessity of an intermediate host. 14. There is no reason to believe that this parasite is capable of infecting warm-blooded animals.

Maine, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, New Brunswick↗
USGS2014

Costs and benefits of group living with disease: a case study of pneumonia in bighorn lambs ( Ovis canadensis )

Group living facilitates pathogen transmission among social hosts, yet temporally stable host social organizations can actually limit transmission of some pathogens. When there are few between-subpopulation contacts for the duration of a disease event, transmission becomes localized to subpopulations. The number of per capita infectious contacts approaches the subpopulation size as pathogen infectiousness increases. Here, we illustrate that this is the case during epidemics of highly infectious pneumonia in bighorn lambs ( Ovis canadensis ). We classified individually marked bighorn ewes into disjoint seasonal subpopulations, and decomposed the variance in lamb survival to weaning into components associated with individual ewes, subpopulations, populations and years. During epidemics, lamb survival varied substantially more between ewe-subpopulations than across populations or years, suggesting localized pathogen transmission. This pattern of lamb survival was not observed during years when disease was absent. Additionally, group sizes in ewe-subpopulations were independent of population size, but the number of ewe-subpopulations increased with population size. Consequently, although one might reasonably assume that force of infection for this highly communicable disease scales with population size, in fact, host social behaviour modulates transmission such that disease is frequency-dependent within populations, and some groups remain protected during epidemic events.

Proceedings of the Royal Society B↗
USGS2019

Context matters: Using reinforcement learning to develop human-readable, state-dependent outbreak response policies

The number of all possible epidemics of a given infectious disease that could occur on a given landscape is large for systems of real-world complexity. Furthermore, there is no guarantee that the control actions that are optimal, on average, over all possible epidemics are also best for each possible epidemic. Reinforcement learning (RL) has been used to develop machine-readable context-dependent solutions for complex problems with many possible realisations ranging from video-games to the game of Go. RL could be a valuable tool to generate context-dependent policies for outbreak response, though translating the resulting policies into simple rules that can be read and interpreted by human decision-makers remains a challenge. Here we illustrate the application of RL to the development of context-dependent outbreak response policies to minimise outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease. We show that control based on the resulting context-dependent policies, which adapt interventions to the specific outbreak, result in smaller outbreaks than static policies. We further illustrate two approaches for translating the complex machine-readable policies into simple heuristics that can be evaluated by human decision-makers.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B:↗
USGS2018

Real-time decision-making during emergency disease outbreaks

In the event of a new infectious disease outbreak, mathematical and simulation models are commonly used to inform policy by evaluating which control strategies will minimize the impact of the epidemic. In the early stages of such outbreaks, substantial parameter uncertainty may limit the ability of models to provide accurate predictions, and policymakers do not have the luxury of waiting for data to alleviate this state of uncertainty. For policymakers, however, it is the selection of the optimal control intervention in the face of uncertainty, rather than accuracy of model predictions, that is the measure of success that counts. We simulate the process of real-time decision-making by fitting an epidemic model to observed, spatially-explicit, infection data at weekly intervals throughout two historical outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease, UK in 2001 and Miyazaki, Japan in 2010, and compare forward simulations of the impact of switching to an alternative control intervention at the time point in question. These are compared to policy recommendations generated in hindsight using data from the entire outbreak, thereby comparing the best we could have done at the time with the best we could have done in retrospect. Our results show that the control policy that would have been chosen using all the data is also identified from an early stage in an outbreak using only the available data, despite high variability in projections of epidemic size. Critically, we find that it is an improved understanding of the locations of infected farms, rather than improved estimates of transmission parameters, that drives improved prediction of the relative performance of control interventions. However, the ability to estimate undetected infectious premises is a function of uncertainty in the transmission parameters. Here, we demonstrate the need for both real-time model fitting and generating projections to evaluate alternative control interventions throughout an outbreak. Our results highlight the use of using models at outbreak onset to inform policy and the importance of state-dependent interventions that adapt in response to additional information throughout an outbreak.

PLOS Computational Biology↗
USGS2000

Molecular epidemiology reveals emergence of a virulent infectious hematopoietic necrosis (IHN) virus strain in wild salmon and its transmission to hatchery fish

Infectious hematopoietic necrosis virus (IHNV) has been known to be a significant salmonid pathogen in the Pacific Northwest of North America for decades. The goal of this study was to characterize the IHNV genetic heterogeneity and viral traffic over time at a study site in the Deschutes River watershed in Oregon, with an emphasis on the epidemiology of IHNV types causing epidemics in wild kokanee Oncorhynchus nerka between 1991 and 1995. The study site included kokanee spawning grounds in the Metolius River and Lake Billy Chinook downstream, in which the IHNV epidemics occurred in 2- and 3-year-old kokanee, and the Round Butte Fish Hatchery at the outflow of the lake. Forty-two IHNV isolates collected from this area between 1975 and 1995 were characterized on a genetic basis by ribonuclease (RNase) protection fingerprint analyses of the virus nucleocapsid, glycoprotein, and nonvirion genes. Analysis of the 16 identified composite haplotypes suggested that both virus evolution and introduction of new IHNV strains contributed to the genetic diversity observed. The results indicated that the 1991–1995 epidemics in kokanee from Lake Billy Chinook were due to a newly introduced IHNV type that was first detected in spawning adult kokanee in 1988 and that this virus type was transmitted from the wild kokanee to hatchery fish downstream in 1991. Twelve IHNV haplotypes were found at Round Butte Fish Hatchery, indicating a series of virus displacement events during the 20-year period examined. This work shows that IHNV traffic can be much more complex than was previously recognized, and the results have implications for fisheries management at the hatchery and throughout the watershed.

Oregon↗
USGS2023

Monkeypox virus in animals: Current knowledge of viral transmission and pathogenesis in wild animal reservoirs and captive animal models

Mpox, formerly called monkeypox, is now the most serious orthopoxvirus (OPXV) infection in humans. This zoonotic disease has been gradually re-emerging in humans with an increasing frequency of cases found in endemic areas, as well as an escalating frequency and size of epidemics outside of endemic areas in Africa. Currently, the largest known mpox epidemic is spreading throughout the world, with over 85,650 cases to date, mostly in Europe and North America. These increased endemic cases and epidemics are likely driven primarily by decreasing global immunity to OPXVs, along with other possible causes. The current unprecedented global outbreak of mpox has demonstrated higher numbers of human cases and greater human-to-human transmission than previously documented, necessitating an urgent need to better understand this disease in humans and animals. Monkeypox virus (MPXV) infections in animals, both naturally occurring and experimental, have provided critical information about the routes of transmission; the viral pathogenicity factors; the methods of control, such as vaccination and antivirals; the disease ecology in reservoir host species; and the conservation impacts on wildlife species. This review briefly described the epidemiology and transmission of MPXV between animals and humans and summarizes past studies on the ecology of MPXV in wild animals and experimental studies in captive animal models, with a focus on how animal infections have informed knowledge concerning various aspects of this pathogen. Knowledge gaps were highlighted in areas where future research, both in captive and free-ranging animals, could inform efforts to understand and control this disease in both humans and animals.

Viruses↗
USGS2009

Distribution and abundance of host-seeking Culex species at three proximate locations with different levels of West Nile virus activity

Culex species were monitored at three proximate sites with historically different West Nile virus (WNV) activities. The site with human WNV transmission (epidemic) had the lowest abundance of the putative bridge vectors, Culex pipiens and Cx. salinarius . The site with horse cases but not human cases (epizootic) had the highest percent composition of Cx. salinarius , whereas the site with WNV-positive birds only (enzootic) had the highest Cx. pipiens abundance and percent composition. A total of 29 WNV-positive Culex pools were collected at the enzootic site, 17 at the epidemic site, and 14 at the epizootic site. Published models of human risk using Cx. pipiens and Cx. salinarius as the primary bridge vectors did not explain WNV activity at our sites. Other variables, such as additional vector species, environmental components, and socioeconomic factors, need to be examined to explain the observed patterns of WNV epidemic activity.

American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene↗
USGS2024

When do we need multiple infectious disease models? Agreement between projection rank and magnitude in a multi-model setting

Mathematical models are useful for public health planning and response to infectious disease threats. However, different models can provide differing results, which can hamper decision making if not synthesized appropriately. To address this challenge, multi-model hubs convene independent modeling groups to generate ensembles, known to provide more accurate predictions of future outcomes. Yet, these hubs are resource intensive, and how many models are sufficient in a hub is not known. Here, we compare the benefit of predictions from multiple models in different contexts: (1) decision settings that depend on predictions of quantitative outcomes (e.g., hospital capacity planning), where assessments of the benefits of multi-model ensembles have largely focused; and (2) decisions settings that require the ranking of alternative epidemic scenarios (e.g., comparing outcomes under multiple possible interventions and biological uncertainties). We develop a mathematical framework to mimic a multi-model prediction setting, and use this framework to quantify how frequently predictions from different models agree. We further explore multi-model agreement using real-world, empirical data from 14 rounds of U.S. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub projections. Our results suggest that the value of multiple models could be different in different decision contexts, and if only a few models are available, focusing on the rank of alternative epidemic scenarios could be more robust than focusing on quantitative outcomes. Although additional exploration of the sufficient number of models for different contexts is still needed, our results indicate that it may be possible to identify decision contexts where it is robust to rely on fewer models, a finding that can inform the use of modeling resources during future public health crises.

Epidemics↗
USGS2023

Evaluation of the US COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub for informing pandemic response under uncertainty

Our ability to forecast epidemics far into the future is constrained by the many complexities of disease systems. Realistic longer-term projections may, however, be possible under well-defined scenarios that specify the future state of critical epidemic drivers. Since December 2020, the U.S. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub (SMH) has convened multiple modeling teams to make months ahead projections of SARS-CoV-2 burden, totaling nearly 1.8 million national and state-level projections. Here, we find SMH performance varied widely as a function of both scenario validity and model calibration. We show scenarios remained close to reality for 22 weeks on average before the arrival of unanticipated SARS-CoV-2 variants invalidated key assumptions. An ensemble of participating models that preserved variation between models (using the linear opinion pool method) was consistently more reliable than any single model in periods of valid scenario assumptions, while projection interval coverage was near target levels. SMH projections were used to guide pandemic response, illustrating the value of collaborative hubs for longer-term scenario projections.

Epidemics↗