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USGS2020

Do empirical observations support commonly-held climate change range shift hypotheses? A systematic review protocol

Background Among the most widely anticipated climate-related impacts to biodiversity are geographic range shifts, whereby species shift their spatial distribution in response to changing climate conditions. In particular, a series of commonly articulated hypotheses have emerged: species are expected to shift their distributions to higher latitudes, greater elevations, and deeper depths in response to climate change, reflecting an underlying hypothesis that species will move to cooler locations to track spatial changes in the temperature of their current range. Yet, many species are not demonstrating range shifts consistent with these hypotheses. Resolving this discrepancy and providing effective explanations for the observed variability in species’ range shifts is urgently needed to help support a range of natural resource management decisions. Here, we propose a protocol to review the body of evidence for commonly-held climate change range shift hypotheses at the species level focusing on observed latitudinal, longitudinal, elevational, and depth shifts in response to temperature and precipitation changes. We aim to answer the question: what is the impact of anthropogenic climate change (specifically changes in temperature and precipitation) on species ranges? Methods In this review protocol, we propose to conduct a systematic search of literature from internet databases and search engines in English. Articles will be screened in a two-stage process (title/abstract and full text) to evaluate whether they meet a list of eligibility criteria (e.g., presents species-level data, compares >1 time period). Initial data coding and extraction will be completed by four reviewers and checked by a secondary reviewer from among our co-authors. We will perform a formal meta-analysis to document estimated effect size using the subset of available range-shift data expressed in distance per time (e.g., km/decade). We will also use multinomial logistic regression models to assess the probability that species are shifting in a direction that supports our hypotheses (i.e. towards higher latitudes, greater elevations, and deeper depths). We will account for study methodology as a potential source of variation.

Environmental Evidence↗

USGS2024

Existing evidence on the effects of climate variability and climate change on ungulates in North America: A systematic map

Background Climate is an important driver of ungulate life-histories, population dynamics, and migratory behaviors. Climate conditions can directly impact ungulates via changes in the costs of thermoregulation and locomotion, or indirectly, via changes in habitat and forage availability, predation, and species interactions. Many studies have documented the effects of climate variability and climate change on North America’s ungulates, recording impacts to population demographics, physiology, foraging behavior, migratory patterns, and more. However, ungulate responses are not uniform and vary by species and geography. Here, we present a systematic map describing the abundance and distribution of evidence on the effects of climate variability and climate change on native ungulates in North America. Methods We searched for all evidence documenting or projecting how climate variability and climate change affect the 15 ungulate species native to the U.S., Canada, Mexico, and Greenland. We searched Web of Science, Scopus, and the websites of 62 wildlife management agencies to identify relevant academic and grey literature. We screened English-language documents for inclusion at both the title and abstract and full-text levels. Data from all articles that passed full-text review were extracted and coded in a database. We identified knowledge clusters and gaps related to the species, locations, climate variables, and outcome variables measured in the literature. Review findings We identified a total of 674 relevant articles published from 1947 until September 2020. Caribou ( Rangifer tarandus ), elk ( Cervus canadensis ), and white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) were the most frequently studied species. Geographically, more research has been conducted in the western U.S. and western Canada, though a notable concentration of research is also located in the Great Lakes region. Nearly 75% more articles examined the effects of precipitation on ungulates compared to temperature, with variables related to snow being the most commonly measured climate variables. Most studies examined the effects of climate on ungulate population demographics, habitat and forage, and physiology and condition, with far fewer examining the effects on disturbances, migratory behavior, and seasonal range and corridor habitat. Conclusions The effects of climate change, and its interactions with stressors such as land-use change, predation, and disease, is of increasing concern to wildlife managers. With its broad scope, this systematic map can help ungulate managers identify relevant climate impacts and prepare for future changes to the populations they manage. Decisions regarding population control measures, supplemental feeding, translocation, and the application of habitat treatments are just some of the management decisions that can be informed by an improved understanding of climate impacts. This systematic map also identified several gaps in the literature that would benefit from additional research, including climate effects on ungulate migratory patterns, on species that are relatively understudied yet known to be sensitive to changes in climate, such as pronghorn ( Antilocapra americana ) and mountain goats ( Oreamnos americanus ), and on ungulates in the eastern U.S. and Mexico.

Environmental Evidence↗

USGS2021

Natural history of a bighorn sheep pneumonia epizootic: Source of infection, course of disease, and pathogen clearance

A respiratory disease epizootic at the National Bison Range (NBR) in Montana in 2016–2017 caused an 85% decline in the bighorn sheep population, documented by observations of its unmarked but individually identifiable members, the subjects of an ongoing long-term study. The index case was likely one of a small group of young bighorn sheep on a short-term exploratory foray in early summer of 2016. Disease subsequently spread through the population, with peak mortality in September and October and continuing signs of respiratory disease and sporadic mortality of all age classes through early July 2017. Body condition scores and clinical signs suggested that the disease affected ewe groups before rams, although by the end of the epizootic, ram mortality (90% of 71) exceeded ewe mortality (79% of 84). Microbiological sampling 10 years to 3 months prior to the epizootic had documented no evidence of infection or exposure to Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae at NBR, but during the epizootic, a single genetic strain of M. ovipneumoniae was detected in affected animals. Retrospective screening of domestic sheep flocks near the NBR identified the same genetic strain in one flock, presumptively the source of the epizootic infection. Evidence of fatal lamb pneumonia was observed during the first two lambing seasons following the epizootic but was absent during the third season following the death of the last identified M. ovipneumoniae carrier ewe. Monitoring of life-history traits prior to the epizootic provided no evidence that environmentally and/or demographically induced nutritional or other stress contributed to the epizootic. Furthermore, the epizootic occurred despite proactive management actions undertaken to reduce risk of disease and increase resilience in this population. This closely observed bighorn sheep epizootic uniquely illustrates the natural history of the disease including the (presumptive) source of spillover, course, severity, and eventual pathogen clearance.

Montana↗

USGS2021

An integrated population model for harvest management of Atlantic brant

Atlantic brant ( Branta bernicla hrota ) are important game birds in the Atlantic Flyway and several long-term monitoring data sets could assist with harvest management, including a count-based survey and demographic data. Considering their relative strengths and weaknesses, integrated analysis to these data would likely improve harvest management, but tools for integration have not yet been developed. Managers currently use an aerial count survey on the wintering grounds, the mid-winter survey, to set harvest regulations. We developed an integrated population model (IPM) for Atlantic brant that uses multiple data sources to simultaneously estimate population abundance, survival, and productivity. The IPM abundance estimates for data from 1975–2018 were less variable than annual mid-winter survey counts or Lincoln estimates, presumably reflecting better accounting for observer error and incorporation of demographic estimates by the IPM. Posterior estimates of adult survival were high (0.77–0.87), and harvest rates of adults and juveniles were positively correlated with more liberal hunting regulations (i.e., hunting days and the daily bag limit). Productivity was variable, with the percent of juveniles in the winter population ranging from 1% to >40%. We found no evidence for environmental relationships with productivity. Using IPM-predicted population abundances rather than mid-winter survey counts alone would have meant fewer annual changes to hunting regulations since 2004. Use of the IPM could improve harvest management for Atlantic brant by providing the ability to predict abundance before annual hunting regulations are set, and by providing more stable hunting regulations, with fewer annual changes.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2005

Evidence of detrimental effects of environmental contaminants on growth and reproductive physiology of white sturgeon in impounded areas of the Columbia River

This study sought to determine whether wild white sturgeon from the Columbia River (Oregon) were exhibiting signs of reproductive endocrine disruption. Fish were sampled in the free-flowing portion of the river (where the population is experiencing reproductive success) and from three reservoirs behind hydroelectric dams (where fish have reduced reproductive success). All of the 18 pesticides and almost all of the 28 polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) that were analyzed in livers and gonads were detected in at least some of the tissue samples. Metabolites of p,p???-dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT) [p,p???-dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (DDE) and p,p???-1,1-dichloro-2,2-bis(4-chlorophenyl)ethane (DDD)] were consistently found at relatively high levels in fish. Some males and immature females showed elevated plasma vitellogenin; however, concentrations were not correlated with any of the pesticides or PCBs analyzed. Negative correlations were found between a number of physiologic parameters and tissue burdens of toxicants. Plasma triglycerides and condition factor were negatively correlated with total DDT (DDD + DDE + DDT), total pesticides (all pesticides detected - total DDT), and PCBs. In males, plasma androgens and gonad size were negatively correlated with total DDT, total pesticides, and PCBs. Fish residing in the reservoir behind the oldest dam had the highest contaminant loads and incidence of gonadal abnormalities, and the lowest triglycerides, condition factor, gonad size, and plasma androgens. These data suggest that endocrine-disrupting chemicals may be accumulating behind dams over time. Overall, results of this study indicate that exposure to environmental contaminants may be affecting both growth and reproductive physiology of sturgeon in some areas of the Columbia River.

Environmental Health Perspectives↗

USGS2019

Evaluation of groundwater resources in the Spanish Valley Watershed, Grand and San Juan Counties, Utah

Groundwater resources in the Spanish Valley watershed in southern Utah were quantified for the first time since the early 1970s. The primary objectives of this study were (1) to better understand sources of recharge to, groundwater flow directions within, and discharge points for both the valley-fill and Glen Canyon Group aquifers (VFA and GCGA), and (2) to quantify groundwater budget components of the combined VFA and GCGA, including both recharge and discharge. Based on both groundwater chemistry (stable isotopes, major ions, and noble gases) and environmental tracers in vadose-zone pore water of the Navajo Sandstone outcrop along Sand Flats Road, most recharge to the GCGA occurs high in the La Sal Mountains, and not on the sandstone outcrop area. The same groundwater chemistry and environmental tracer evidence from the saturated zone indicates that Pack Creek, rather than GCGA groundwater, is the primary source of recharge to the VFA. Groundwater recharge in the study area occurs mostly from infiltration of precipitation (in the form of snowmelt) at high altitudes. Additional recharge occurs from the infiltration of runoff along losing reaches of stream channels, or as unconsumed surface-water and groundwater irrigation. Average annual recharge to the Moab-Spanish Valley watershed part of the Spanish Valley study area was estimated to be between 9,550 and 30,000 acre-feet. Based on water-levels collected in the current study, groundwater in both the GCGA and the VFA generally moves downgradient parallel to the topographic slope of the watershed towards the Colorado River. Groundwater discharge measurements, and hydraulic-flux estimates at the lower end of Spanish Valley, provide a more robust estimate of the groundwater budget than evaluating recharge. The primary base-flow discharge components in the study area include groundwater discharge to gaining reaches of streams, groundwater discharge to springs, and well withdrawals. Based on 3 years of measurements (2014–16) and hydraulic-flux calculations at the lower end of Spanish Valley, total groundwater discharge was estimated to be 14,000 to 16,000 acre-feet per year (acre-ft/yr) for the entire watershed, or 13,000 to 15,000 acre-ft/yr, excluding the watershed areas of Grandstaff (formerly Negro Bill) and Ice Box Canyons (compared to the 1971 Sumsion estimate of 22,000 acre-ft/yr). The primary difference is this study’s estimate of subsurface outflow to the Colorado River of only 300 to 1,000 acre-ft/yr, compared to 11,000 acre-ft/yr estimated by Sumsion. Because the study period (2014–16) experienced above average precipitation for 2 of the 3 years, the discharge estimates may be slightly higher than long-term average annual discharge from the groundwater system.

Utah↗

USGS2007

North to Alaska: Evidence for conveyor belt transport of Dungeness crab larvae along the west coast of the United States and Canada

We propose and evaluate the hypothesis that Dungeness crab ( Cancer magister ) larvae from the northwestern coast of the United States and Canada can be transported northward to southeastern Alaska. Larvae collected in southeastern Alaska during May and June 1997–2004 had abundances and stages that varied seasonally, interannually, and spatially. An unexpected presence of late-stage larvae in spring raises a question regarding their origin, and the most plausible explanation is that they hatched off the northern Washington and British Columbia coasts and were transported to southeastern Alaska. Buoy drift tracks support the hypothesis that larvae released off the northern Washington and British Columbia coasts during the peak hatching season can be physically transported to southeastern Alaska, arriving as late-stage larvae in May and June, when local larvae are only beginning to hatch. A northward spring progression of monthly mean 7°C SST isotherms and phytoplankton blooms provide further evidence that environmental conditions are conducive for larval growth and metabolism during the transport period. The proposed larval transport suggests possible unidirectional gene flow between southern and northern populations of Dungeness crabs in southeastern Alaska.

Limnology and Oceanography↗

USGS1971

Chlorinated hydrocarbons in the marine environment. A report prepared by the Panel on Monitoring Persistent Pesticides in the Marine Environment of the Committee on Oceanography

SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS : The oceans are an ultimate accumulation site for the persistent chlorinated hydrocarbons. As much as 25 percent of the DDT compounds produced to date may have been transferred to the sea. The amount of DDT compounds in the marine biota is estimated to be less than 0.1 percent of total production, yet this amount has produced a demonstrable impact upon the marine environment. Populations of fish-eating birds have experienced reproductive failure and decline. With continued accumulations of persistent chlorinated hydrocarbons in the marine ecosystem, additional species will be threatened. Continued release of these pollutants to the environment can only accelerate the accumulation of unacceptable levels of persistent chlorinated hydrocarbons in the tissues of marine food fish. Certain risks in the utilization of chlorinated hydrocarbons are especially hard to quantify, but they require serious consideration. The rate at which such substances degrade to harmless products in the marine system is unknown; the half-lives of some of the more persistent materials are certainly of the order of years, and perhaps even of decades or centuries. If most of the remaining 75 percent of the persistent chlorinated hydrocarbons is now in reservoirs that will in time transfer their contents to the sea, we may expect an increased level of these substances in marine organisms, despite future improvements of manufacturing practices. In fact, if these compounds degrade with half-lives of decades or longer, there will be no opportunity to redress the consequences. The more the problems are studied, the more unexpected effects are identified. In view of the findings of the past decade, our prediction of the potential hazards of chlorinated hydrocarbons in the marine environment may be vastly underestimated. The Panel makes the following recommendations, which will be developed and expanded in the remainder of the report: ? A massive national effort should be made immediately to effect a drastic reduction of the escape of persistent toxicants into the environment, with the ultimate aim of achieving virtual cessation in the shortest possible time. ? Programs should be designed both to determine the rates of entry of each pollutant into the marine environment and to make base-line determinations of the distribution of the pollutants among the components of that environment, These should be followed by a program of monitoring long-term trends in order to record progress and to document possible disaster. ? The laws relating to the registration of chemical substances and the release of production figures by government should be examined and perhaps revised in light of evidence of environmental deterioration caused by some of these substances.

Book↗

USGS2019

Climate teleconnections synchronize Picea glauca masting and fire disturbance: Evidence for a fire‐related form of environmental prediction

Synchronous pulses of seed masting and natural disturbance have positive feedbacks on the reproduction of masting species in disturbance‐prone ecosystems. We test the hypotheses that disturbances and proximate causes of masting are correlated, and that their large‐scale synchrony is driven by similar climate teleconnection patterns at both inter‐annual and decadal time scales. Hypotheses were tested on white spruce ( Picea glauca ), a masting species which surprisingly persists in fire‐prone boreal forests while lacking clear fire adaptations. We built masting, drought and fire indices at regional (Alaska, Yukon, Alberta, Quebec) and sub‐continental scales (western North America) spanning the second half of the 20th century. Superposed Epoch Analysis tested the temporal associations between masting events, drought and burnt area at the regional scale. At the sub‐continental scale, Superposed Epoch Analysis tested whether El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its coupled effects with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) in the positive phase (AMO+/ENSO+) synchronize drought, burnt area and masting. We additionally tested the consistency of our synchronization hypotheses on a decadal temporal scale to verify whether long‐term oscillations in AMO+/ENSO+ are coherent to decadal variation in drought, burnt area and masting. Analyses demonstrated synchronicity between drought, fire and masting. In all regions the year before a mast event was drier and more fire‐prone than usual. During AMO+/ENSO+ events sub‐continental indices of drought and burnt area experienced significant departures from mean values. The same was observed for large‐scale masting in the subsequent year, confirming 1‐year lag between fire and masting. Sub‐continental indices of burnt area and masting showed in‐phase decadal fluctuations led by the AMO+/ENSO+. Results support the ‘Environmental prediction hypothesis’ for mast seeding. Synthesis . We provide evidence of large‐scale synchronicity between seed masting in Picea glauca and fire regimes in boreal forests of western North America at both inter‐annual and decadal time scales. We conclude that seed production in white spruce predicts changes in disturbance regimes by sharing the same large‐scale climate drivers with drought and fire. This gives new insides in a mechanism providing a fire‐sensitive species with higher than expected adaptability to changes in climate.

Alaska, Alberta, Quebec, Yukon↗

USGS2023

Evidence of population-level impacts and resiliency for Gulf of Mexico shelf taxa following the Deepwater Horizon oil spill

The goal of this paper was to review the evidence of population-level impacts of the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill (DWH) on Gulf of Mexico (GOM) continental shelf taxa, as well as evidence of resiliency following the DWH. There is considerable environmental and biological evidence that GOM shelf taxa were exposed to and suffered direct and indirect impacts of the DWH. Numerous assessments, from mesocosm studies to analysis of biopsied tissue or tissue samples from necropsied animals, revealed a constellation of physiological effects related to DWH impacts on GOM biota, some of which clearly or likely resulted in mortality. While the estimated concentrations of hydrocarbons in shelf waters and sediments were orders of magnitude lower than measured in inshore or deep GOM environments, the level of mortality observed or predicted was substantial for many shelf taxa. In some cases, such as for zooplankton, community shifts following the spill were ephemeral, likely reflecting high rates of population turnover and productivity. In other taxa, such as GOM reef fishes, impacts of the spill are confounded with other stressors, such as fishing mortality or the appearance and rapid population growth of invasive lionfish ( Pterois spp.). In yet others, such as cetaceans, modeling efforts to predict population-level effects of the DWH made conservative assumptions given the species’ protected status, which post-DWH population assessments either failed to detect or population increases were estimated. A persistent theme that emerged was the lack of precise population-level data or assessments prior to the DWH for many taxa, but even when data or assessments did exist, examining evidence of population resiliency was confounded by other stressors impacting GOM biota. Unless efforts are made to increase the resolution of the data or precision of population assessments, difficulties will likely remain in estimating the scale of population-level effects or resiliency in the case of future large-scale environmental catastrophes.

Gulf of Mexico↗

USGS2017

At the forefront: evidence of the applicability of using environmental DNA to quantify the abundance of fish populations in natural lentic waters with additional sampling considerations

Environmental DNA (eDNA) sampling has proven to be a valuable tool for detecting species in aquatic ecosystems. Within this rapidly evolving field, a promising application is the ability to obtain quantitative estimates of relative species abundance based on eDNA concentration rather than traditionally labor-intensive methods. We investigated the relationship between eDNA concentration and Arctic char ( Salvelinus alpinus ) abundance in five well-studied natural lakes; additionally, we examined the effects of different temporal (e.g., season) and spatial (e.g., depth) scales on eDNA concentration. Concentrations of eDNA were linearly correlated with char population estimates ( = 0.78) and exponentially correlated with char densities ( = 0.96 by area; 0.82 by volume). Across lakes, eDNA concentrations were greater and more homogeneous in the water column during mixis; however, when stratified, eDNA concentrations were greater in the hypolimnion. Overall, our findings demonstrate that eDNA techniques can produce effective estimates of relative fish abundance in natural lakes. These findings can guide future studies to improve and expand eDNA methods while informing research and management using rapid and minimally invasive sampling.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗

USGS2022

Maximizing species distribution model performance when using historical occurrences and variables of varying persistency

Occurrence data used to build species distribution models often include historical records from locations in which the species no longer exists. When these records are paired with contemporary environmental values that no longer represent the conditions the species experienced, the model creates false associations that hurt predictive performance. The extent of mismatching increases with the number of historical occurrences and with inclusion of environmental variables that are prone to change over time. Indeed, the mismatch between occurrence data and contemporaneous environmental variables is a common dilemma when modeling rare or cryptic species, especially those of conservation concern that were once more abundant. Herein, we assess (1) the impact of historical occurrences on model performance across three sets of environmental variables of increasing persistency and (2) the performance of models built using selected-historical occurrences from locations that showed evidence of limited environmental change over time. Concepts are tested on federally listed flatwoods salamanders, reflecting real-world conservation management efforts. We predicted that, compared to other occurrence sets, (1) historical occurrences would perform best with environmental variables that were more persistent, (2) recent occurrences would perform best when the environmental variables were more impersistent, and that (3) our selected-historical occurrences would perform best with a combination of persistent and impersistent variables. Our results showed the expected inversion of model performance of recent and historical occurrences across environmental variables of increasing persistency when evaluated by correct predictions. However, the inversion was not seen in area under the curve performance, in which historical occurrences outperformed recent occurrence models across all variable sets. Selected-historical occurrences did not notably improve performance over all-historical occurrences in any metric or variable set. To maximize utility and performance, modelers could acknowledge potential trade-offs from inclusion of historical occurrences and consider number and age of recent and historical occurrences available, the persistency of environmental variables considered, and how their conservation goals are reflected in model design and evaluation, particularly with respect to sensitivity versus specificity. Our study lends support for inclusion of historical occurrences, with the potential exception of mostly impersistent variables when sensitivity is the highest priority.

Alabama, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina↗

USGS1991

Environmental contaminants and the reproductive success of lake trout in the Great Lakes: An epidemiological approach

Epidemiological criteria were used to examine the influence of environmental contamination on reproductive success of lake trout ( Salvelinus namaycush ,) in the Laurentian Great Lakes. Most of the information was obtained from lake trout eggs collected in southeastern Lake Michigan and reared in the laboratory. Two separate end points that measure reproductive success—egg hatchability and fry survival‐were used in the evaluation. Strong evidence for maternally derived polychlorinated biphenyls causing reduced egg hatchability were observed for the time order, strength of association, and coherence criteria. Equally strong evidence for organic environmental contaminants, also of maternal origin, causing a swim‐up fry mortality syndrome were presented for the strength of association, specificity, replication, and coherence criteria. The epidemiological approach for demonstrating cause‐and‐effect relations was useful because of the difficulty in demonstrating definite proof of causality between specific environmental contaminants and reproductive dysfunction in feral fish.

Journal of Toxicology and Environmental Health↗

USGS2019

Factors influencing anuran wetland occupancy in an agricultural landscape

Habitat disturbance is an important cause of global amphibian declines, with especially strong effects in areas of high agricultural use. Determining the influence of site characteristics on amphibian presence and success is vital to developing effective conservation strategies. We used occupancy analysis to estimate presence of four anuran species at wetlands in northern Iowa as a function of eight environmental covariates hypothesized to affect occupancy: fish and salamander abundance, invertebrate density, aquatic vegetative cover, wetland area, atrazine concentration in water, surrounding agricultural land use, and an overall wetland health score (wetland condition index [WCI]). We surveyed 27 wetlands multiple times in 2015 and 2016. Leopard Frogs ( Lithobates pipiens ) and American Toads ( Anaxyrus americanus ) were observed at 100% of the sites, Boreal Chorus Frogs ( Pseudacris maculata ) at 96%, and Gray Treefrogs ( Hyla spp.) at 81%. Wetland site occupancy for all species in our study ranged from 0.23 ( Hyla spp. tadpoles) to 0.95 ( L. pipiens adults), indicating that agricultural wetlands can provide refuge or habitat for amphibians. Fish abundance, percentage of cropland cover within 500 m of the wetland, and salamander abundance were among the variables best supported by our models although their estimated effects were weak. Wetland area, atrazine concentration, vegetative cover, and WCI also influenced occupancy probability, but for only a small number of species and life stages. The direction of predicted effects varied by species and life stage. Despite only weak evidence that the environmental factors we measured influenced anuran occupancy, our results provide insights for managers seeking to understand how amphibians use landscapes modified by agriculture.

Iowa↗

USGS2020

Mitochondrial genome diversity and population mitogenomics of Polar cod (Boreogadus saida) and Arctic dwelling gadoids

High-latitude fish typically exhibit a narrow thermal tolerance window, which may pose challenges when coping with temperatures that shift outside of a species’ range of tolerance. Due to its role in aerobic metabolism and energy balance, the mitochondrial genome is likely critical for the acclimation and adaptation to differing temperature regimes in marine ectotherms. As oceans continue to warm, there is growing need to understand the ability of organisms to respond to changing environmental conditions given evidence that some species, in particular cold-water species, may already be experiencing difficulties. To assess how Arctic gadids in Alaska have responded to differential thermal preferences in the past and how regions are interconnected, we sequenced complete mitochondrial genomes for four Arctic gadids to determine the distribution of mitochondrial diversity and population-level structure as well as to detect signatures of selection acting on the mitochondrial genome. We found little population-level structure within all four species with the clear exception of Gulf of Alaska saffron cod ( Eleginus gracilis ). Northern localities exhibited higher levels of genetic diversity and primarily northern lineages were observed within polar cod ( Boreogadus saida ) and saffron cod, likely reflecting asymmetrical dispersal and potentially admixture of distinct lineages via ocean currents. The main evolutionary force shaping the evolution of the mitogenome appears to be purifying selection, but we also identified potential positive selection of candidate amino acid replacements primarily in complex I (ND genes) in polar cod. The high levels of mitochondrial diversity observed in our study and large population size may provide this species with the ability to respond evolutionarily (i.e. long-term) to a changing environment.

Alaska↗

USGS2014

Abrupt climate-independent fire regime changes

Wildfires have played a determining role in distribution, composition and structure of many ecosystems worldwide and climatic changes are widely considered to be a major driver of future fire regime changes. However, forecasting future climatic change induced impacts on fire regimes will require a clearer understanding of other drivers of abrupt fire regime changes. Here, we focus on evidence from different environmental and temporal settings of fire regimes changes that are not directly attributed to climatic changes. We review key cases of these abrupt fire regime changes at different spatial and temporal scales, including those directly driven (i) by fauna, (ii) by invasive plant species, and (iii) by socio-economic and policy changes. All these drivers might generate non-linear effects of landscape changes in fuel structure; that is, they generate fuel changes that can cross thresholds of landscape continuity, and thus drastically change fire activity. Although climatic changes might contribute to some of these changes, there are also many instances that are not primarily linked to climatic shifts. Understanding the mechanism driving fire regime changes should contribute to our ability to better assess future fire regimes.

Ecosystems↗

USGS2025

Marshes to mangroves: Residential surveys reveal perceived wetland trade-offs for ecosystem services

Coastal landscapes are rapidly changing due to both climate change and the decisions of waterfront landowners. For instance, the climate-driven encroachment of woody mangrove species into grassy marshland areas is predicted to impact coastal ecosystems, with consequences for the ecosystem services these landscapes provide to people. However, there is a dearth of knowledge concerning coastal resident perceptions of the effects of mangrove expansion on wetlands and their ecosystem services, which may impact residents’ behavior around shorelines and landscape-level patterns. We surveyed waterfront residents in the northern Gulf of Mexico (USA) to understand perceptions of the relative performance of marshes and mangroves to deliver fisheries ecosystem services. Residential-scale shoreline condition and preference, recreational fishing activity, geography, and demographics were evaluated as potential predictors of resident perceptions through non-parametric comparisons across groups and ordered logit modeling. Significant predictors included area of residence, marsh shoreline condition, marsh shoreline preference, fishing frequency, and household income. Florida residents (where mangroves are most prevalent) and frequent recreational fishing participants exhibited stronger preference for mangroves. Unexpectedly, residents with marsh currently present on their shoreline also perceived that mangroves were better at delivering fisheries ecosystem services than marshes. Considering the important role that coastal residents play in shoreline management decisions, these results demonstrate how coastal resident attitudes may drive or mediate climate-driven processes in ways that are not evident by examining environmental conditions alone. Understanding social-ecological shifts due to climate change will be important to inform effective landscape management that promotes resilience in coastal ecosystems and societies.

Landscape and Urban Planning↗

USGS2014

Ecological and evolutionary patterns of freshwater maturation in Pacific and Atlantic salmonines

Reproductive tactics and migratory strategies in Pacific and Atlantic salmonines are inextricably linked through the effects of migration (or lack thereof) on age and size at maturity. In this review, we focus on the ecological and evolutionary patterns of freshwater maturation in salmonines, a key process resulting in the diversification of their life histories. We demonstrate that the energetics of maturation and reproduction provides a unifying theme for understanding both the proximate and ultimate causes of variation in reproductive schedules among species, populations, and the sexes. We use probabilistic maturation reaction norms to illustrate how variation in individual condition, in terms of body size, growth rate, and lipid storage, influences the timing of maturation. This useful framework integrates both genetic and environmental contributions to conditional strategies for maturation and, in doing so, demonstrates how flexible life histories can be both heritable and subject to strong environmental influences. We review evidence that the propensity for freshwater maturation in partially anadromous species is predictable across environmental gradients at geographic and local spatial scales. We note that growth is commonly associated with the propensity for freshwater maturation, but that life-history responses to changes in growth caused by temperature may be strikingly different than changes caused by differences in food availability. We conclude by exploring how contemporary management actions can constrain or promote the diversity of maturation phenotypes in Pacific and Atlantic salmonines and caution against underestimating the role of freshwater maturing forms in maintaining the resiliency of these iconic species.

Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries↗