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At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources
USGS2025

Spatiotemporal synchrony of climate and fire occurrence across North American forests (1750-1880)

Aim Increasing aridity has driven widespread synchronous fire occurrence in recent decades across North America. The lack of historical (pre-1880) fire records limits our ability to understand long-term continental fire-climate dynamics. The goal of this study is to use tree-ring reconstructions to determine the relationships between spatiotemporal patterns in historical climate and widespread fire occurrence in North American forests, and whether they are stable through time. This information will address a major knowledge gap required to inform projections of future fire. Location North American Forests. Time Period 1750–1880 CE. Major Taxa Studies Trees. Methods We applied regionalisation methods to tree-ring reconstructions of historical summer soil moisture and annual fire occurrence to independently identify broad- and fine-scale climate and fire regions based on common inter-annual variability. We then tested whether the regions were stable through time and for spatial correspondence between the climate and fire regions. Last, we used correlation analysis to quantify the strength of the fire-climate associations through time. Results We found that broad-scale historical patterns in climate and fire have strong spatial coherence. Although climate and fire regions vary over time, large core areas of the regions were stable. The association between climate and fire varied through time and was strongest in western North America, likely due to a combination of factors, such as the magnitude of drought frequency and severity, as well as varying use of fire by human communities. Main Conclusions The historical perspective gained through tree-ring reconstructions of climate and fire patterns and their association suggests that climate-driven synchrony of fire across large areas of the continent in recent decades is not unprecedented, will likely continue into the future, and may exhibit similar spatial patterns.

North America↗
USGS2002

Impacts of climate change on the global forest sector

The path and magnitude of future anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide will likely influence changes in climate that may impact the global forest sector. These responses in the global forest sector may have implications for international efforts to stabilize the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide. This study takes a step toward including the role of global forest sector in integrated assessments of the global carbon cycle by linking global models of climate dynamics, ecosystem processes and forest economics to assess the potential responses of the global forest sector to different levels of greenhouse gas emissions. We utilize three climate scenarios and two economic scenarios to represent a range of greenhouse gas emissions and economic behavior. At the end of the analysis period (2040), the potential responses in regional forest growing stock simulated by the global ecosystem model range from decreases and increases for the low emissions climate scenario to increases in all regions for the high emissions climate scenario. The changes in vegetation are used to adjust timber supply in the softwood and hardwood sectors of the economic model. In general, the global changes in welfare are positive, but small across all scenarios. At the regional level, the changes in welfare can be large and either negative or positive. Markets and trade in forest products play important roles in whether a region realizes any gains associated with climate change. In general, regions with the lowest wood fiber production cost are able to expand harvests. Trade in forest products leads to lower prices elsewhere. The low-cost regions expand market shares and force higher-cost regions to decrease their harvests. Trade produces different economic gains and losses across the globe even though, globally, economic welfare increases. The results of this study indicate that assumptions within alternative climate scenarios and about trade in forest products are important factors that strongly influence the effects of climate change on the global forest sector.

Climatic Change↗
USGS2007

Coralline alga reveals first marine record of subarctic North Pacific climate change

While recent changes in subarctic North Pacific climate had dramatic effects on ecosystems and fishery yields, past climate dynamics and teleconnection patterns are poorly understood due to the absence of century-long high-resolution marine records. We present the first 117-year long annually resolved marine climate history from the western Bering Sea/Aleutian Island region using information contained in the calcitic skeleton of the long-lived crustose coralline red alga Clathromorphum nereostratum, a previously unused climate archive. The skeletal ??18O-time series indicates significant warming and/or freshening of surface waters after the middle of the 20th century. Furthermore, the time series is spatiotemporally correlated with Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and tropical El Nio??-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices. Even though the western Bering Sea/Aleutian Island region is believed to be outside the area of significant marine response to ENSO, we propose that an ENSO signal is transmitted via the Alaskan Stream from the Eastern North Pacific, a region of known ENSO teleconnections. Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS2020

Phasing of millennial-scale climate variability in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans

New radiocarbon and sedimentological results from the Gulf of Alaska document recurrent millennial-scale episodes of reorganized Pacific Ocean ventilation synchronous with rapid Cordilleran Ice Sheet discharge, indicating close coupling of ice-ocean dynamics spanning the past 42,000 years. Ventilation of the intermediate-depth North Pacific tracks strength of the Asian monsoon, supporting a role for moisture and heat transport from low latitudes in North Pacific paleoclimate. Changes in carbon-14 age of intermediate waters are in phase with peaks in Cordilleran ice-rafted debris delivery, and both consistently precede ice discharge events from the Laurentide Ice Sheet, known as Heinrich events. This timing precludes an Atlantic trigger for Cordilleran Ice Sheet retreat and instead implicates the Pacific as an early part of a cascade of dynamic climate events with global impact.

Science↗
USGS2025

Wetland hydrologic dynamics and duck productivity are declining in the Prairie Pothole Region, and they are linked

The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of North America is a globally important area hosting >50 % of North America’s breeding ducks. Ducks in the PPR depend on wetlands and grasslands which have experienced accelerated losses in extent and quality due to agriculture. While other bird populations have declined, duck abundance reached record highs recently (2013–2017). We explored this discontinuity by examining monitoring data for trends in pond numbers (wetlands with ponded water) and interannual dynamics (water-level dynamics indexed by interannual change in pond numbers) and how those factors influenced duck productivity in the PPR during 1976–2019. Over time, pond numbers increased but their interannual dynamics declined, indicating stabilization of an ecosystem evolved with a dynamic climate. Our models accounted for 67 and 71 % of variation in productivity of PPR-obligate gadwall ( Mareca strepera ) and redheads ( Aythya americana ), respectively. Breeding productivity of these sentinel species was positively correlated with pond abundance and dynamics, and systematically declined. Accordingly, our analyses revealed sensitivity of breeding ducks to systematic change in the PPR previously obscured by increasingly abundant pond numbers. Interannual pond dynamics improved duck productivity and pond dynamics have declined indicating a de facto 44-year decline in duck productivity which is likely driven by water-level stabilization decreasing quality of brood-rearing wetlands. Residual temporal effects indicated that productivity has also declined for other reasons, such as agricultural land use changes. While mechanisms behind these correlations are speculative, they demonstrate the importance of further understanding land use and climate changes in the PPR for conservation of these important species and ecosystems.

Alberta, Iowa, Manitoba, Minnesota, Montana, North↗
USGS2023

Techniques for restoring damaged Mojave and western Sonoran ecosystems, including those for threatened desert tortoises and Joshua trees

Ecological restoration has potential for contributing to conservation activities for threatened Mojave desert tortoises ( Gopherus agassizii ) and Joshua trees ( Yucca brevifolia , Y. jaegeriana ) and their broader ecosystems in the Mojave and western Sonoran deserts. To be effective, restoration actions deployed strategically need to halt and reverse habitat degradation, replenish or enhance resources used by both species (e.g., large shrubs for protection of tortoises and nurse plants facilitating recruitment of Joshua tree seedlings), and ideally foster resilience during likely future environmental changes. We synthesized restoration techniques and their effectiveness in the Mojave and western Sonoran deserts, provide estimated costs of candidate techniques, and anticipate future research needs for effective restoration in changing climates and environments. Over 50 published studies in the Mojave and western Sonoran deserts demonstrate that restoration can improve soil features (e.g., biocrusts), increase cover of native perennial and annual plants, enhance native seed retention and seed banks, and reduce risk of fires to conserve mature shrubland habitat. We placed restoration techniques into three categories: restoration of site environments, revegetation, and management actions to limit further disturbance and encourage recovery. Within these categories, 11 major restoration techniques (and their variations) were evaluated by at least one published study and range from geomorphic (e.g., reestablishing natural topographic patterns) and abiotic structural treatments (e.g., vertical mulching) to active revegetation (e.g., outplanting, seeding). For example, 16 outplanting studies assessed performance of 46 species to begin identifying top-performing species, associated treatments (e.g., protection from herbivory) required to aid outplant survival, and potential for outplants to trigger formation of self-sustaining populations. Creosote bush (Larrea tridentata), a shrub that tortoises use for cover and that serves as a nurse plant for Joshua tree recruitment, achieved at least 50% survival in five of eight studies. Estimated costs for restoring desert habitats varied primarily with the severity of the disturbance, site factors including the diversity of vegetation that was lost, logistical factors such as accessibility of sites (influencing transportation costs), and the cost-effectiveness of the restoration techniques chosen. The review highlights six major research and adaptive management needs for advancing desert habitat restoration. These needs include: 1) continued development of innovative techniques and bet-hedging approaches to provide managers with “tool boxes” of candidate treatments to deploy in dynamic environmental and management conditions, 2) identifying how to optimize spatial deployment of limited restoration resources, 3) developing practical techniques for reducing non-native annual grasses across spatial scales, 4) improving linkages between habitat enhancements and short- and long-term indicators of tortoise usage and responses and Joshua tree population sustainability, 5) mitigating multiple, interacting stressors with cumulative impacts, and 6) integrating biotic (e.g., seeding) and abiotic (e.g., fencing, shade structures) treatments to complement each other at site and landscape scales in dynamic climates and environments. It is possible that bet-hedging approaches employing multiple treatment types (or phased treatments across years) and greater incorporation of abiotic treatments, which are less sensitive to timing of precipitation compared with biotic treatments, will become increasingly important under future climates projected to be drier and more variable. Existing research suggests that restoration can be deployed effectively even under adverse climatic conditions, but success requires identifying suitable techniques tailored to dynamic environments.

Arizona, California, Nevada, Sonora↗
USGS2014

Aboveground allometric models for freeze-affected black mangroves (Avicennia germinans): Equations for a climate sensitive mangrove-marsh ecotone

Across the globe, species distributions are changing in response to climate change and land use change. In parts of the southeastern United States, climate change is expected to result in the poleward range expansion of black mangroves ( Avicennia germinans ) at the expense of some salt marsh vegetation. The morphology of A. germinans at its northern range limit is more shrub-like than in tropical climes in part due to the aboveground structural damage and vigorous multi-stem regrowth triggered by extreme winter temperatures. In this study, we developed aboveground allometric equations for freeze-affected black mangroves which can be used to quantify: (1) total aboveground biomass; (2) leaf biomass; (3) stem plus branch biomass; and (4) leaf area. Plant volume (i.e., a combination of crown area and plant height) was selected as the optimal predictor of the four response variables. We expect that our simple measurements and equations can be adapted for use in other mangrove ecosystems located in abiotic settings that result in mangrove individuals with dwarf or shrub-like morphologies including oligotrophic and arid environments. Many important ecological functions and services are affected by changes in coastal wetland plant community structure and productivity including carbon storage, nutrient cycling, coastal protection, recreation, fish and avian habitat, and ecosystem response to sea level rise and extreme climatic events. Coastal scientists in the southeastern United States can use the identified allometric equations, in combination with easily obtained and non-destructive plant volume measurements, to better quantify and monitor ecological change within the dynamic, climate sensitive, and highly-productive mangrove-marsh ecotone.

Louisiana↗
USGS2022

Very high Middle Miocene surface productivity on the U.S. mid-Atlantic shelf amid glacioeustatic sea level variability

The Miocene Climatic Optimum (MCO) provides important insights into how the climate system operates under elevated temperatures and atmospheric CO 2 levels. Few western North Atlantic paleotemperature or paleoecological records exist from the MCO, despite their importance for understanding both regional and global climate dynamics. Here we present quantitative MCO paleoecological data from the western North Atlantic, specifically from the Baltimore Gas & Electric (BG&E) marine sediment core from southern Maryland, USA. We examine alkenones and planktic foraminifera and document the first sea surface temperature (SST) and productivity estimates for the MCO and the Middle Miocene Climate Transition (MMCT) from the continental shelf. Increased levels of planktic foraminifer species diversity and surface productivity accompany high sea level intervals of the MCO, indicating coastal upwelling. Cooling episodes correlate to unconformities in the BG&E core that reflect sea level lowstands; these and sedimentary cycles tie the record to eccentricity-paced Antarctic ice sheet growth and decay. This dynamic record not only captures the variability in SST, sea level and coastal productivity during the warm MCO and the transition to cooler global temperatures during the MMCT, but it also demonstrates the variability in local conditions within and between intervals of high sea level.

Maryland↗
USGS2013

Mobile Bay

Mobile Bay is the largest bay found in Alabama’s coastal area (Handley et al., 2007). It was named an Estuary of National Significance in 1995 under the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) National Estuary Program (NEP), and its Comprehensive Conservation Management Plan was completed in 2002. Mobile Bay is 1,070 km 2 (413 miles 2 ) in area and 51 km (32 miles) long, making it the sixth largest estuary in the continental United States (Mobile Bay NEP, 2008). Its ecosystem provides habitat for more than 300 species of birds, 310 species of fish, 68 species of reptiles, 57 species of mammals, 40 species of amphibians, and 15 species of shrimp (Mobile Bay NEP, 1997). Mobile Bay lies between the Mississippi and Atlantic Flyways (Mobile Bay NEP, 2003). Commercial and residential development and industrial use is heavy in the Mobile Bay area. Although local growth and industrial markets support the Mobile Bay area economy, the resulting environmental damage to the very ecosystem upon which they depend remains a threat to the environment, economy, and population. The Mobile Bay ecosystem boasts high biological diversity and productivity and supports many freshwater and saltwater species of recreational and commercial importance. The great diversity of Mobile Bay reflects the diversity of Alabama, which is home to the largest number of different plant and animal species of all states east of the Mississippi River (Stein, 2002), and is bolstered by the unique climate and geographic conditions surrounding the bay. Freshwater inflow from the Mobile-Tensaw River Delta, ranging from 60,000 to 3,700,000 gallons per second (Wallace, 1996), mixes with saltwater from the Gulf of Mexico, which enters Mobile Bay via wind and tides (Burgan and Engle, 2006). Because of the unique conditions surrounding Mobile Bay, including shallow waters, a dynamic climate, and artificial hydrologic modifications—such as the construction of the Mobile Bay Causeway in the 1920s, which serves as an unintentional barrier between Delta waters north of the Causeway and saline waters south of the Causeway, the salinity of Mobile Bay is highly variable. Mobile Bay receives an average of 165 cm (65 inches) of rain per year from tropical storms, summer thunderstorms, and winter cold fronts (Stout et al., 1998). The climate and geography that have made Mobile Bay so rich in resources have also contributed to the threats surrounding its ecosystem. The extensive amount of rain in Mobile Bay creates large amounts of runoff, polluting the waters with fertilizers, chemicals, sediment, oil, trash, and sewage (Mobile Bay NEP, 1997). Tourism, ecotourism, recreational and commercial fishing, recreational boating, shipping, and chemical, pulp, and paper production are significant industries in Mobile Bay and the surrounding areas. Despite the approximate \$3 billion and 55,000 jobs these industries bring into the community (Alabama Tourism Department, 2010), the growth, development, and environmental stress they create are major threats to the Mobile Bay ecosystem. Among the nation’s states, Alabama ranks fifth in number of different species (144 endemic species), second in number of extinctions that have already occurred (90 extinct species) and fourth in number of species at risk for extinction (14.8% at risk out of 4,533 total species; Stein, 2002). Twenty-one of these threatened and endangered species are found in Mobile Bay, whose brackish waters provide a nursery area for many species of vertebrates and invertebrates. Some of these species include the Alabama sturgeon, Gulf sturgeon, heavy pigtoe mussel, inflated heel-splitter mussel, West Indian manatee, Alabama beach mouse, Perdido beach mouse, Alabama red-bellied turtle, gopher tortoise, Kemp’s ridley sea turtle, green sea turtle, loggerhead sea turtle, eastern indigo snake, flatwoods salamander, piping plover, red-cockaded woodpecker, and wood stork. Habitat loss underlies the decline of some bird species in Mobile Bay, and large mammals such as the red wolf, Florida panther, and Florida black bear are no longer found in the area. However, some rare species, such as the swallow-tailed kite, sandhill crane, and gopher tortoise can still be found (Duke and Kruczynski, 1992). The value of wetlands in Mobile Bay and the rest of the Gulf of Mexico is still being investigated. Although various monetary valuations of wetlands exist, critics remark that undervaluation of wetlands is inevitable (Mobile Bay NEP, 2008) and that estimates often do not place appropriate value on ecological services (Mitsch and Gosselink, 2000). Additionally, many estimates account only for anthropogenic values. One estimate concludes that one acre of wetlands performs \$3,000 worth of water purification each year (Mobile Bay NEP, 1997). With more than 76,890 hectares (190,000 acres) of wetlands in the Mobile Bay area, that equates to a value exceeding one-half billion dollars every year. Tourism, fishing, boating, production, and shipping are significant industries in the Mobile Bay area. More than 90% of fish landed in recreational and commercial fishing in the bay depend on bay habitat, including wetlands, for life requirements (Mobile Bay NEP, 1997). The Port of Mobile is Alabama’s only ocean-ship port (Mobile Bay NEP, 2008). Baldwin County, on the eastern side of the bay, experienced a population increase of 75% from 1990 to 2007, with an 89% increase in housing units (Mobile Bay NEP, 2008). Development and industry support the Mobile Bay economy, but they depend on the continued health, sustainability, and production of the water and living resources of the Mobile Bay ecosystem. Wetland loss, along with other forms of environmental degradation, remains a threat to the Mobile Bay ecosystem and Mobile Bay’s socioeconomic foundation.

Alabama↗
USGS2019

Spatio-temporal variability of human-fire interactions on the Navajo Nation

Unraveling the effects of climate and land-use on historical fire regimes provides important insights into broader human-fire-climate dynamics, which are necessary for ecologically-based forest management. We developed a spatial human land-use model for Navajo Nation forests across which we sampled a network of tree-ring fire history sites to reflect contrasting historical land-use intensity: high human use, primarily in the Chuska Mountains, and low human use, primarily on the central Defiance Plateau. We tested for and compared human- and climate-driven changes in the fire regimes by applying change point detection, regression, and superposed epoch analyses. The historical fire regimes and fire-climate relationships reflect those of similar forests regionally, and are similar between the two Navajo landscapes until the early 1800s. We then determined that a previously identified, localized, early (1830s) decline in fire activity was geographically widespread across higher human use sites. In contrast, fires continued to burn uninterrupted through this period at the lower use sites. Though the 1830s included significantly wet and cold periods that could have contributed to fire regime decline, human factors pose a more spatio-temporally consistent explanation. A rise in Navajo pastoralism in the 1820s-1830s was concentrated seasonally in the heavy use sites. By the 1880s, livestock numbers more than doubled, grazing became far more spatially widespread, and frequent fire regimes of Navajo forests collapsed. The last widespread fire recorded on either landscape was in 1886. In the Chuska Mountains, livestock and fire co-existed for over 50 years between the initial 1832 fire decline and the end of frequent fires after 1886, an exceptional pattern in the western US. Though unique in its timing, character, and spatial dynamics, the collapse of historical fire regimes in Navajo forests contributed to now over a century without frequent surface fire, leaving Navajo forests at risk for large, uncharacteristic high-severity fires.

Arizona, New Mexico↗
USGS2016

Interactions of landscape disturbances and climate change dictate ecological pattern and process: spatial modeling of wildfire, insect, and disease dynamics under future climates

Context Interactions among disturbances, climate, and vegetation influence landscape patterns and ecosystem processes. Climate changes, exotic invasions, beetle outbreaks, altered fire regimes, and human activities may interact to produce landscapes that appear and function beyond historical analogs. Objectives We used the mechanistic ecosystem-fire process model FireBGCv2 to model interactions of wildland fire, mountain pine beetle ( Dendroctonus ponderosae ), and white pine blister rust ( Cronartium ribicola ) under current and future climates, across three diverse study areas. Methods We assessed changes in tree basal area as a measure of landscape response over a 300-year simulation period for the Crown of the Continent in north-central Montana, East Fork of the Bitterroot River in western Montana, and Yellowstone Central Plateau in western Wyoming, USA. Results Interacting disturbances reduced overall basal area via increased tree mortality of host species. Wildfire decreased basal area more than beetles or rust, and disturbance interactions modeled under future climate significantly altered landscape basal area as compared with no-disturbance and current climate scenarios. Responses varied among landscapes depending on species composition, sensitivity to fire, and pathogen and beetle suitability and susceptibility. Conclusions Understanding disturbance interactions is critical for managing landscapes because forest responses to wildfires, pathogens, and beetle attacks may offset or exacerbate climate influences, with consequences for wildlife, carbon, and biodiversity.

Landscape Ecology↗
USGS2022

Spatial estimates of soil moisture for understanding ecological potential and risk: a case study for arid and semi-arid ecosystems

Soil temperature and moisture (soil-climate) affect plant growth and microbial metabolism, providing a mechanistic link between climate and growing conditions. However, spatially explicit soil-climate estimates that can inform management and research are lacking. We developed a framework to estimate spatiotemporal-varying soil moisture (monthly, annual, and seasonal) and temperature-moisture regimes as gridded surfaces by enhancing the Newhall simulation model. Importantly, our approach allows for the substitution of data and parameters, such as climate, snowmelt, soil properties, alternative potential evapotranspiration equations and air-soil temperature offsets. We applied the model across the western United States using monthly climate averages (1981–2010). The resulting data are intended to help improve conservation and habitat management, including but not limited to increasing the understanding of vegetation patterns (restoration effectiveness), the spread of invasive species and wildfire risk. The demonstrated modeled results had significant correlations with vegetation patterns—for example, soil moisture variables predicted sagebrush (R 2 = 0.51), annual herbaceous plant cover (R 2 = 0.687), exposed soil (R 2 = 0.656) and fire occurrence (R 2 = 0.343). Using our framework, we have the flexibility to assess dynamic climate conditions (historical, contemporary or projected) that could improve the knowledge of changing spatiotemporal biotic patterns and be applied to other geographic regions.

Land↗
USGS2012

Role of remote sensing for land-use and land-cover change modeling

As the impacts of land-use and land-cover (LULC) change on carbon dynamics, climate change, hydrology, and biodiversity have been recognized, modeling of this transformational force has become increasingly important. Given the wide variety of applications that rely on the availability of LULC projections, modeling approaches have originated from a variety of disciplines, including geography, landscape ecology, economics, biology, and others. Initial modeling was often isolated within each discipline, but multidisciplinary modeling frameworks were developed as LULC modelers began to integrate the socioeconomic and biophysical components of LULC change. The empirical and theoretical basis for this work falls within land-use science, and this ‡eld documents both land-use and land-cover change, explains the coupled human-environment dynamics that produce the changes, and provides tools for producing spatially explicit LULC models (Mertens and Lambin, 1999; Rindfuss et al., 2004).

Book chapter↗
USGS2012

Wetland hydrodynamics and long-term use of spring migration areas by lesser scaup in eastern South Dakota

Lesser scaup ( Aythya affinis [Eyton]) populations remain below their long-term average despite improved habitat conditions along spring migration routes and at breeding grounds. Scaup are typically associated with large, semipermanent wetlands and exhibit regional preferences along migration routes. Identifying consistently used habitats for conservation and restoration is complicated by irregular wetland availability due to the dynamic climate. We modeled long-term wetland use by lesser scaup in eastern South Dakota based on surveys conducted during below-average (1987-1989) and above-average (1993-2002) water condition years. Wetland permanence, longitude, and physiographic region were all significant determinants of use (P<0.01). Long-term use was best described by a quadratic equation including wetland surface area variability, an index of wetland hydrodynamics that is linked to productivity, biodiversity, and value to waterfowl. Contrary to previous findings, our study shows that over the long term, lesser scaup are more than twice as likely to use permanent wetlands as they are semipermanent wetlands. The northern region of South Dakota's Prairie Coteau, which holds the highest density of hydrologically dynamic permanent wetlands, should be considered an area of conservation concern for lesser scaup. The criteria we identified may be used to identify important lesser scaup habitats in other regions of the Prairie Pothole Region.

South Dakota↗
USGS2020

2,200-Year tree-ring and lake-sediment based snowpack reconstruction for the northern Rocky Mountains highlights the historic magnitude of recent snow drought

In recent decades, Rocky Mountain accumulated snowpack levels have experienced rapid declines, yet long-term records of snowpack prior to the installation of snowpack observation stations in the early and mid 20th century are limited. To date, a small number of tree-ring based reconstructions of April 1 Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) in the northern Rocky Mountains have extended modern records of snowpack variability to ∼1200 C.E. Carbonate isotope lake sediment records, provide an opportunity to further extend tree-ring based reconstructions through the Holocene, providing a millennial-scale temporal record that allows for an evaluation of multi-scale drivers of snowpack variability, from internal climate dynamics to orbital-scale forcings. Here we present a ∼2200 year preliminary reconstruction of northern Rockies snowpack based on δ 18 O measurements of sediment carbonates collected from Foy Lake, Montana. We explore the statistical calibration of lake sediment δ 18 O to an annually resolved snowpack reconstruction from tree rings, and develop an approach to assess and quantify potential sources of error in this reconstruction approach. The sediment-based snowpack reconstruction shows strong low-frequency variability in snowpack over the last two millennia with few snow droughts approaching the magnitude of recent snowpack declines. Given the growing availability of high-resolution, carbonate-rich lake sediment records, such reconstructions could help improve our understanding of how snowpack conditions varied under previous climatic events (mid-Holocene climate optimum ca. 9−6 ka), providing critical insights for anticipating future snowpack conditions.

Alberta, British Columbia, Idaho, Montana, Nevada,↗
USGS2007

Regional analysis of ground-water recharge

A modeling analysis of runoff and ground-water recharge for the arid and semiarid southwestern United States was performed to investigate the interactions of climate and other controlling factors and to place the eight study-site investigations into a regional context. A distributed-parameter water-balance model (the Basin Characterization Model, or BCM) was used in the analysis. Data requirements of the BCM included digital representations of topography, soils, geology, and vegetation, together with monthly time-series of precipitation and air-temperature data. Time-series of potential evapotranspiration were generated by using a submodel for solar radiation, taking into account topographic shading, cloudiness, and vegetation density. Snowpack accumulation and melting were modeled using precipitation and air-temperature data. Amounts of water available for runoff and ground-water recharge were calculated on the basis of water-budget considerations by using measured- and generated-meteorologic time series together with estimates of soil-water storage and saturated hydraulic conductivity of subsoil geologic units. Calculations were made on a computational grid with a horizontal resolution of about 270 meters for the entire 1,033,840 square-kilometer study area. The modeling analysis was composed of 194 basins, including the eight basins containing ground-water recharge-site investigations. For each grid cell, the BCM computed monthly values of potential evapotranspiration, soil-water storage, in-place ground-water recharge, and runoff (potential stream flow). A fixed percentage of runoff was assumed to become recharge beneath channels operating at a finer resolution than the computational grid of the BCM. Monthly precipitation and temperature data from 1941 to 2004 were used to explore climatic variability in runoff and ground-water recharge. The selected approach provided a framework for classifying study-site basins with respect to climate and dominant recharge processes. The average climate for all 194 basins ranged from hyperarid to humid, with arid and semiarid basins predominating (fig. 6, chapter A, this volume). Four of the 194 basins had an aridity index of dry subhumid; two of the basins were humid. Of the eight recharge-study sites, six were in semiarid basins, and two were in arid basins. Average-annual potential evapotranspiration showed a regional gradient from less than 1 m/yr in the northeastern part of the study area to more than 2 m/yr in the southwestern part of the study area. Average-annual precipitation was lowest in the two arid-site basins and highest in the two study-site basins in southern Arizona. The relative amount of runoff to in-place recharge varied throughout the study area, reflecting differences primarily in soil water-holding capacity, saturated hydraulic conductivity of subsoil materials, and snowpack dynamics. Climatic forcing expressed in El Niño and Pacific Decadal Oscillation indices strongly influenced the generation of precipitation throughout the study area. Positive values of both indices correlated with the highest amounts of runoff and ground-water recharge.

Professional Paper↗
USGS2017

Inundation, vegetation, and sediment effects on litter decomposition in Pacific Coast tidal marshes

The cycling and sequestration of carbon are important ecosystem functions of estuarine wetlands that may be affected by climate change. We conducted experiments across a latitudinal and climate gradient of tidal marshes in the northeast Pacific to evaluate the effects of climate- and vegetation-related factors on litter decomposition. We manipulated tidal exposure and litter type in experimental mesocosms at two sites and used variation across marsh landscapes at seven sites to test for relationships between decomposition and marsh elevation, soil temperature, vegetation composition, litter quality, and sediment organic content. A greater than tenfold increase in manipulated tidal inundation resulted in small increases in decomposition of roots and rhizomes of two species, but no significant change in decay rates of shoots of three other species. In contrast, across the latitudinal gradient, decomposition rates of Salicornia pacifica litter were greater in high marsh than in low marsh. Rates were not correlated with sediment temperature or organic content, but were associated with plant assemblage structure including above-ground cover, species composition, and species richness. Decomposition rates also varied by litter type; at two sites in the Pacific Northwest, the grasses Deschampsia cespitosa and Distichlis spicata decomposed more slowly than the forb S. pacifica . Our data suggest that elevation gradients and vegetation structure in tidal marshes both affect rates of litter decay, potentially leading to complex spatial patterns in sediment carbon dynamics. Climate change may thus have direct effects on rates of decomposition through increased inundation from sea-level rise and indirect effects through changing plant community composition.

Ecosystems↗
USGS2021

Whole‐genome resequencing reveals persistence of forest‐associated mammals in Late Pleistocene refugia along North America’s North Pacific Coast

Aim Numerous glacial refugia have been hypothesized along North America's North Pacific Coast that may have increased divergence of refugial taxa, leading to elevated endemism and subsequently clustered hybrid zones following deglaciation. The locations and community composition of these ice‐free areas remains controversial, but whole‐genome sequences now enable detailed analysis of the demographic and evolutionary histories of refugial taxa. Here, we use genomic data to test spatial and temporal processes of diversification among martens with respect to the Coastal Refugium Hypothesis, to understand the role of climate cycling in shaping diversity across complex landscapes. Location North America and North Pacific Coast archipelagos. Taxon North American martens ( Martes ). Methods Short‐read whole‐genome resequencing data were generated for 11 martens: four M. americana , four M. caurina , two hybrids, and one outgroup ( Martes zibellina ). Sampling was representative of known genetic clades within New World martens, including sampling within insular and continental hybrid zones and along the North Pacific Coast (five island populations). ADMIXTURE , F‐statistics, and D ‐statistics (ABBA‐BABA) were used to identify introgression and infer directionality. Heterozygosity densities, estimated via PSMC, were used to characterize historical demography at and below the species level to infer refugial and colonization processes. Results Forest‐associated Pacific martens ( M. caurina ) are divided into distinct insular and continental clades consistent with the Coastal Refugium Hypothesis. There was no evidence of introgression on islands that received historical translocations of American pine martens ( M. americana ), but introgression was detected in two active zones of secondary contact: one insular and one continental. Only early‐generational hybrids were identified across multiple hybrid zones, a pattern consistent with potential genetic swamping of M. caurina by M. americana . Main conclusions Despite an incomplete fossil record, genomic evidence supports the persistence of forest‐associated martens, likely the insular Pacific marten lineage, along the western edges of the Alexander Archipelago during the Last Glacial Maximum. This discovery informs our understanding of refugial paleoenvironments, critical to interpreting refugial timing, duration, and community composition. Genomic reevaluations of other taxa along North America's North Pacific Coast may yield new and deeper perspectives on the history of refugial forest communities and the role of dynamic climate shifts in shaping high‐latitude diversity across complex insular landscapes.

Alaska, British Columbia, California, Oregon, Wash↗