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USGS2002

Yellowstone grizzly bear investigations: Annual report of the Interagency Grizzly Bear Study Team, 2001

The contents of this Annual Report summarize results of monitoring and research from the 2001 field season. The report also contains a summary of nuisance grizzly bear ( Ursus arctos horribilis ) management actions. In addition to our normal monitoring, we completed an array of studies addressing the potential impacts of winter recreation on denning grizzly bears. This research was in response to a lawsuit filed against the Gallatin National Forest and subsequent need to develop a biological assessment addressing effects of snowmobile use on grizzly bears (Chemy 2001). Research results were also used by the National Park Service for a biological assessment and winter use plan (U.S. Department of the Interior 2001). The Interagency Grizzly Bear Study Team (IGBST) was able to use existing data collected from collared bears to address several issues and data needs for both agencies. Denning chronology (Haroldson et al. 2002), denning areas (Podruzny et al. 2002), and grizzly distribution (Schwartz et al. 2002) were all addressed. Information from these studies was presented at the International Association for Bear Research and Management (IBA) in Jackson Hole, Wyoming in 2001, and all 3 manuscripts have been officially accepted for publication in the journal Ursus . Abstracts are attached to this report (Appendices A, B. and C). Additionally, members of the study team participated in a workshop held by the National Park Service to develop monitoring protocols addressing the impacts of snowmobiles on wildlife (Graves and Reams 2001). The study team has also been working on issues associated with counts of unduplicated females with cubs-of-the-year (COY). These counts are used to establisha minimum population size, which is then used to establish mortality thresholds for the Recovery Plan (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service [USFWS) 1993). Efforts by the Study Team to calculate more statistically sound estimates of population size have been underway for sometime. Eberhardt and Knight (1996) applied a Peterson-type capturemark-recapture estimator to unduplicated counts, and Boyce et al. (1999) recommended a maximum likelihood method. These methods assumed equal sightability of families, which was unrealistic for the Yellowstone population. Consequently, Boyce et al. (2001) recommended using a negative binomial distribution but found that they obtained reasonable results only when the coefficient of variation among sightings was assumed to be constant overtime. This assumption is also difficult to justify. Recent work by the study team (Keating et al. 2002) evaluated the application of 7 nonparametric estimators to assess their performance in determining the number of females with COY in a given year. This work identified 2 estimators that performed well using Monte Carlo simulations over a range of sampling conditions deemed plausible for the Yellowstone population: Chao's estimator (Chao 1984) and the sample coverage estimator (Chao and Lee 1992, Lee and Chao 1994). This work was presented at the IBA meeting in Jackson and the manuscript has been accepted in the journal Ursus . An abstract of this work is attached to this annual report (Appendix D). We are currently refining the application of these techniques to expand the predicted number of females with COY into a total population estimate. We anticipate completion of that work in 2002 or 2003.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗

USGS2015

Evaluating species richness: biased ecological inference results from spatial heterogeneity in species detection probabilities

Accurate estimates of species richness are necessary to test predictions of ecological theory and evaluate biodiversity for conservation purposes. However, species richness is difficult to measure in the field because some species will almost always be overlooked due to their cryptic nature or the observer's failure to perceive their cues. Common measures of species richness that assume consistent observability across species are inviting because they may require only single counts of species at survey sites. Single-visit estimation methods ignore spatial and temporal variation in species detection probabilities related to survey or site conditions that may confound estimates of species richness. We used simulated and empirical data to evaluate the bias and precision of raw species counts, the limiting forms of jackknife and Chao estimators, and multi-species occupancy models when estimating species richness to evaluate whether the choice of estimator can affect inferences about the relationships between environmental conditions and community size under variable detection processes. Four simulated scenarios with realistic and variable detection processes were considered. Results of simulations indicated that (1) raw species counts were always biased low, (2) single-visit jackknife and Chao estimators were significantly biased regardless of detection process, (3) multispecies occupancy models were more precise and generally less biased than the jackknife and Chao estimators, and (4) spatial heterogeneity resulting from the effects of a site covariate on species detection probabilities had significant impacts on the inferred relationships between species richness and a spatially explicit environmental condition. For a real dataset of bird observations in northwestern Alaska, the four estimation methods produced different estimates of local species richness, which severely affected inferences about the effects of shrubs on local avian richness. Overall, our results indicate that neglecting the effects of site covariates on species detection probabilities may lead to significant bias in estimation of species richness, as well as the inferred relationships between community size and environmental covariates.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2016

The geologic history of Margaritifer basin, Mars

In this study, we investigate the fluvial, sedimentary, and volcanic history of Margaritifer basin and the Uzboi-Ladon-Morava (ULM) outflow channel system. This network of valleys and basins spans more than 8000 km in length, linking the fluvially dissected southern highlands and Argyre Basin with the northern lowlands via Ares Vallis. Compositionally, thermophysically, and morphologically distinct geologic units are identified and are used to place critical relative stratigraphic constraints on the timing of geologic processes in Margaritifer basin. Our analyses show that fluvial activity was separated in time by significant episodes of geologic activity, including the widespread volcanic resurfacing of Margaritifer basin and the formation of chaos terrain. The most recent fluvial activity within Margaritifer basin appears to terminate at a region of chaos terrain, suggesting possible communication between surface and subsurface water reservoirs. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of these observations on our current knowledge of Martian hydrologic evolution in this important region.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗

USGS2021

Pedigree accumulation analysis: Combining methods from community ecology and population genetics for breeding adult estimation

Estimates of the number of successfully breeding adults ( N S ) in a population can predict levels of recruitment. However, assessments of N S are often difficult to obtain because encounters with adults are limited due to life-history characteristics, low abundance or other constraints associated with access to critical habitats. Alternatively, efforts to sample individuals at earlier ontogenetic stages can be more tractable, resulting in more comprehensive samples. To estimate N S , we describe, evaluate and apply two nonparametric species richness estimators to information associated with genetic pedigree reconstruction. Simulations compared bias and precision associated with Chao and Jackknife methods when estimating N S . We also evaluated N S estimation sensitivity to two sources of variation associated with species reproductive ecology (variance in reproductive success and sex ratio skew) and genetic pedigree assignment error. Finally, the application of our novel method was demonstrated in two different species and systems (Chinook Salmon in Oregon, USA and Lake Sturgeon in Michigan, USA). We found unbiased N S estimates were generated across a broad range of offspring sample sizes using the Chao method. Empirical results corroborated simulation-based expectations and highlighted applications where parents and offspring are sampled, and when only offspring are sampled. When offspring sample sizes are adequate and pedigree reconstruction errors are low, the combination of established methods from community ecology and genetic pedigree reconstruction provides an accurate alternative method to estimate N S that can facilitate population assessments.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2007

Evaluating estimators for numbers of females with cubs-of-the-year in the Yellowstone grizzly bear population

Current management of the grizzly bear ( Ursus arctos ) population in Yellowstone National Park and surrounding areas requires annual estimation of the number of adult female bears with cubs-of-the-year. We examined the performance of nine estimators of population size via simulation. Data were simulated using two methods for different combinations of population size, sample size, and coefficient of variation of individual sighting probabilities. We show that the coefficient of variation does not, by itself, adequately describe the effects of capture heterogeneity, because two different distributions of capture probabilities can have the same coefficient of variation. All estimators produced biased estimates of population size with bias decreasing as effort increased. Based on the simulation results we recommend the Chao estimator for model M h be used to estimate the number of female bears with cubs of the year; however, the estimator of Chao and Shen may also be useful depending on the goals of the research.

Wyoming↗

USGS2022

Geologic map of MTM −10022 and −15022 quadrangles, Morava Valles and Margaritifer basin, Mars

The landscape in Mars Transverse Mercator (MTM) −10022 and −15022 quadrangles (lat −7.5° N. to −17.5° N. between long 335° E. and 340° E.) in Margaritifer Terra preserves a record of sedimentary and alluvial deposits, volcanic and tectonic structures, and erosional landforms that record a long and complex geologic and geomorphic history. MTM −10022 and −15022 quadrangles primarily encompass Morava Valles, the terminus of the Samara-Himera and Paraná-Loire valley networks, the broad catchment informally named Margaritifer basin, and Margaritifer Chaos. Morava Valles is the lowermost reach of the northward draining mesoscale outflow system that consists of Uzboi Vallis, Ladon Valles, and Morava Valles, was sourced from flow out of Argyre basin, and incises across and between the ancient Ladon and Holden impact basins. The broad-scale topography and surface relief within the map, including the topographic low occupied by Margaritifer basin, were largely shaped during the Noachian by the formation of the Holden, Ladon, and Ares impact basins and the Chryse trough. Multiple processes modified the ancient surface until the Late Noachian and resulted in the formation of the terra unit that forms the widely exposed surface. Later resurfacing associated with likely sedimentary and volcanic processes modified predominantly lower elevation surfaces and basins during the Late Noachian into at least the Hesperian. Sedimentary processes during the Late Noachian were dominated by fluvial incision of the Samara-Himera and Paraná-Loire valley networks and discharge related to the dissection of Morava Valles that drained Ladon basin. The history of geomorphic activity within Margaritifer basin was more complex and was likely dominated by the evolution of Morava Valles relative to the formation of the valley networks. The floor of Margaritifer basin preserves likely lacustrine plains related to sedimentation in water ponded during early discharge from Morava Valles, which were later embayed by volcanic plains. Crater densities and cross-cutting relations indicate Margaritifer basin evolved over a relatively short period of geologic time. The timing of the last drainage out of Morava Valles is not well constrained but could have occurred during the Hesperian. Structural collapse and the formation of the Margaritifer Chaos and other chaotic terrain formed by the release of subsurface water that may have been related to volcanic activity along the southern margin of Margaritifer basin. Final geomorphic events within the map region include the formation of Late Hesperian to perhaps Amazonian alluvial fans within some craters and isolated mass wasting on steep slopes. A final, variable veneer associated with locally occurring impacts and redistribution of fine-grained material by eolian processes resulted in the landscape observed today.

Scientific Investigations Map↗

USGS2007

Discovery of the invasive Mayan Cichlid fish "Cichlasoma" urophthalmus (Günther 1862) in Thailand, with comments on other introductions and potential impacts

We report on the occurrence and possible establishment of a non-native cichlid fish in a brackish-water system in the lower Chao Phraya River delta region, Thailand. Although, the possibility of some degree of introgressive hybridization can not be ruled out, Thailand specimens agree best with Mayan Cichlid “Cichlasoma” urophthalmus (Günther 1862). Our collections represent the first records of this New World, highly-invasive, euryhaline fish from Thailand and coincides with recent collections from Singapore. Positive identification of specimens as “C.” urophthalmus requires caution due to the diversity of the Cichlidae (>1,300 species), widespread introduction of many family members, variation within species, extensive interspecific overlap in characters, and proliferation of artificial cichlid hybrids (e.g., Flowerhorns). We first became aware of the Thailand population in 2005 when “C.” urophthalmus began appearing in the catches of local fishermen. We visited the site in November 2006 and obtained and examined voucher specimens. The abundance and wide size range of juveniles and adults in local ponds and an adjacent canal is evidence of natural reproduction. Because water bodies throughout the Chao Phraya delta are interconnected and subject to flooding, it is likely that “C.” urophthalmus is already established and is dispersing, but surveys and monitoring are needed to determine their exact geographic range. The Thailand population is compared to “C.” urophthalmus introduced into Florida (USA). Based on what is known about Florida “C.” urophthalmus , it is predicted that this cichlid will further invade coastal and inland waters in Thailand and elsewhere in Southeast Asia. This cichlid has a long history in the aquarium trade in Europe. However, there are no records from the wild in European waters and, because of the colder climate, the possibility of establishment in that region is relatively low.

Chao Phraya River Delta↗

USGS1981

The partitioning of copper among selected phases of geologic media of two porphyry copper districts, Puerto Rico

In experiments designed to determine the manner in which copper is partitioned among selected phases that constitute geologic media, we have applied the five-step sequential extraction procedure of Chao and Theobald to the analysis of drill core, soils, and stream sediments of the Rio Vivi and Rio Tanama porphyry copper districts of Puerto Rico. The extraction procedure affords a convenient means of determining the trace-metal content of the following fractions: (1) Mn oxides and “reactive” Fe oxides; (2) “amorphous” Fe oxides; (3) “crystalline” Fe oxides; (4) sulfides and magnetite; and (5) silicates. An additional extraction between steps (1) and (2) was performed to determine organic-related copper in stream sediments. The experimental results indicate that apportionment of copper among phases constituting geologic media is a function of geochemical environment. Distinctive partitioning patterns were derived from the analysis of drill core from each of three geochemical zones: (a) the supergene zone of oxidation; (b) the supergene zone of enrichment; and (c) the hypogene zone; and similarly, from the analysis of; (d) soils on a weakly leached capping; (e) soils on a strongly leached capping; and (f) active stream sediment. The experimental results also show that geochemical contrasts (anomaly-to-background ratios) vary widely among the five fractions of each sampling medium investigated, and that at least one fraction of each medium provides substantially stronger contrast than does the bulk medium. Fraction (1) provides optimal contrast for stream sediments of the district; fraction (2) provides optimal contrast for soils on a weakly leached capping; fraction (3) provides optimal contrast for soils on a strongly leached capping. Selective extraction procedures appear to have important applications to the orientation and interpretive stages of geochemical exploration. Further investigation and testing of a similar nature are recommended.

Puerto Rico↗

USGS2026

Estimation of parental abundance using hierarchical Bayesian modeling with data augmentation

Pedigree-based estimation methods leverage the fact that each offspring in a cohort is genotypically “marked” by its parents and represent a recent and promising toolset for estimating population dynamics. This includes pedigree accumulation estimators that model the “accumulation” of inferred unique parents within a given cohort to estimate parental abundance. Unlike close-kin mark-recapture approaches, which rely on intercohort comparisons, pedigree accumulation modeling can be completed solely using intracohort samples. This is particularly advantageous for semelparous species, where intercohort pairs are impossible and adult life stages can be difficult to sample without affecting their likelihood of successfully reproducing. Previous work has evaluated a range of estimators for such datasets, concluding that the non-parametric Chao estimator provides the most accurate and precise estimates for feasible levels of sampling effort. We used simulated data to evaluate an alternative estimator based on hierarchical modeling and data augmentation in a Bayesian framework. Results indicate that estimates from the hierarchical Bayesian estimator had comparable accuracy and better precision than both the previously tested Chao1 estimator and the improved iChao formulation across a range of sample sizes and sex ratios. Furthermore, the Bayesian estimator was far more robust to simulated errors in pedigree reconstruction, especially the presence of false negatives. Hierarchical Bayesian pedigree accumulation models can also provide additional insight into underlying reproductive ecology through their use of an explicit observation process, allowing for the incorporation or estimation of species- and population-specific reproductive dynamics. More broadly, the parametric nature of these models offers opportunities to efficiently pool information among datasets as well as to propagate uncertainty within more complex models.

Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2016

Complexity Theory

A complex system consists of many interacting parts, generates new collective behavior through self organization, and adaptively evolves through time. Many theories have been developed to study complex systems, including chaos, fractals, cellular automata, self organization, stochastic processes, turbulence, and genetic algorithms.

Book chapter↗

USGS2023

Porosity, strength, and alteration – Towards a new volcano stability assessment tool using VNIR-SWIR reflectance spectroscopy

Volcano slope stability analysis is a critical component of volcanic hazard assessments and monitoring. However, traditional methods for assessing rock strength require physical samples of rock which may be difficult to obtain or characterize in bulk. Here, visible to shortwave infrared (350–2500 nm; VNIR–SWIR) reflected light spectroscopy on laboratory-tested rock samples from Ruapehu, Ohakuri, Whakaari, and Banks Peninsula (New Zealand), Merapi (Indonesia), Chaos Crags (USA), Styrian Basin (Austria) and La Soufrière de Guadeloupe (Eastern Caribbean) volcanoes was used to design a novel rapid chemometric-based method to estimate uniaxial compressive strength (UCS) and porosity. Our Partial Least Squares Regression models return moderate accuracies for both UCS and porosity, with R 2 of 0.43–0.49 and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 0.2–0.4. When laboratory-measured porosity is included with spectral data, UCS prediction reaches an R 2 of 0.82 and MAPE of 0.11. Our models highlight that the observed changes in the UCS are coupled with subtle mineralogical changes due to hydrothermal alteration at wavelengths of 360–438, 532–597, 1405–1455, 2179–2272, 2332–2386, and 2460–2490 nm. These mineralogical changes include mineral replacement, precipitation hydrothermal alteration processes which impact the strength of volcanic rocks, such as mineral replacement, precipitation, and/or silicification. Our approach highlights that spectroscopy can provide a first order assessment of rock strength and/or porosity or be used to complement laboratory porosity-based predictive models. VNIR-SWIR spectroscopy therefore provides an accurate non-destructive way of assessing rock strength and alteration mineralogy, even from remote sensing platforms.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters↗

USGS2008

Evidence for ponding and catastrophic floods in central Valles Marineris, Mars

The Valles Marineris canyon system of Mars is closely related to large flood channels, some of which emerge full born from chaotic terrain in canyon floors. Coprates Chasma, one of the largest Valles Marineris canyons, is connected at its west end to Melas Chasma and on its east end to chaotic terrain-filled Capri and Eos Chasmata. The area from central Melas to Eos Chasmata contains a 1500 km long and about 1 km deep depression in its floor. Despite the large volumes of groundwater that likely discharged from chaotic terrain in this depression, no evidence of related fluvial activity has thus far been reported. We present an analysis of the regional topography which, together with photogeologic interpretation of available imagery, suggests that ponding due to late Hesperian discharge of water possibly produced a lake (mean depth 842 m) spanning parts of the Valles Marineris depression (VMD). Overflow of this lake at its eastern end resulted in delivery of water to downstream chaos regions and outflow channels. Our ponding hypothesis is motivated primarily by the identification of scarp and terrace features which, despite a lateral spread of about 1500 km, have similar elevations. Furthermore, these elevations correspond to the maximum ponding elevation of the region (-3560 m). Simulated ponding in the VMD yields an overflow point at its eastern extremity, in Eos Chasma. The neighborhood of this overflow point contains clear indicators of fluvial erosion in a consistent east-west orientation. ?? 2008 Elsevier Inc.

Icarus↗

USGS2012

Hydrogen isotope investigation of amphibole and biotite phenocrysts in silicic magmas erupted at Lassen Volcanic Center, California

Hydrogen isotope ratio, water content and Fe 3 + /Fe 2 + in coexisting amphibole and biotite phenocrysts in volcanic rocks can provide insight into shallow pre- and syn-eruptive magmatic processes such as vesiculation, and lava drainback with mixing into less devolatilized magma that erupts later in a volcanic sequence. We studied four ~ 35 ka and younger eruption sequences (i.e. Kings Creek, Lassen Peak, Chaos Crags, and 1915) at the Lassen Volcanic Center (LVC), California, where intrusion of crystal-rich silicic magma mushes by mafic magmas is inferred from the varying abundances of mafic magmatic inclusions (MMIs) in the silicic volcanic rocks. Types and relative proportions of reacted and unreacted hydrous phenocryst populations are evaluated with accompanying chemical and H isotope changes. Biotite phenocrysts were more susceptible to rehydration in older vesicular glassy volcanic rocks than coexisting amphibole phenocrysts. Biotite and magnesiohornblende phenocrysts toward the core of the Lassen Peak dome are extensively dehydroxylated and reacted from prolonged exposure to high temperature, low pressure, and higher f O2 conditions from post-emplacement cooling. In silicic volcanic rocks not affected by alteration, biotite phenocrysts are often relatively more dehydroxylated than are magnesiohornblende phenocrysts of similar size; this is likely due to the ca 10 times larger overall bulk H diffusion coefficient in biotite. A simplified model of dehydrogenation in hydrous phenocrysts above reaction closure temperature suggests that eruption and quench of magma ascended to the surface in a few hours is too short a time for substantial H loss from amphibole. In contrast, slowly ascended magma can have extremely dehydrogenated and possibly dehydrated biotite, relatively less dehydrogenated magnesiohornblende and reaction rims on both phases. Eruptive products containing the highest proportions of mottled dehydrogenated crystals could indicate that within a few days prior to eruption, degassed vesiculated magma or lava had drained back down the volcanic conduit and mixed with less devolatilized magma. The vesiculated magma contained hydrous phenocrysts with lattice damage, which locally raised the effective H diffusion coefficient by ca 10–100 × and resulted in increased mineral dehydrogenation. Remobilization of dacite magma mush by relatively more reduced mafic magma appears to have generated further f O2 variations in May 1915 as oxidized magma from shallow levels circulated to depths where dehydrogenation of hydrous phenocrysts began. The δD Magmatic H2O expressed in LVC acid hot springs is likely a mixture derived from devolatilized ascending mafic magmas and crystallizing silicic magma mush.

California↗

USGS1999

Does Europa have a subsurface ocean? Evaluation of the geological evidence

It has been proposed that Jupiter's satellite Europa currently possesses a global subsurface ocean of liquid water. Galileo gravity data verify that the satellite is differentiated into an outer H 2 O layer about 100 km thick but cannot determine the current physical state of this layer (liquid or solid). Here we summarize the geological evidence regarding an extant subsurface ocean, concentrating on Galileo imaging data. We describe and assess nine pertinent lines of geological evidence: impact morphologies, lenticulae, cryovolcanic features, pull‐apart bands, chaos, ridges, surface frosts, topography, and global tectonics. An internal ocean would be a simple and comprehensive explanation for a broad range of observations; however, we cannot rule out the possibility that all of the surface morphologies could be due to processes in warm, soft ice with only localized or partial melting. Two different models of impact flux imply very different surface ages for Europa; the model favored here indicates an average age of ∼50 Myr. Searches for evidence of current geological activity on Europa, such as plumes or surface changes, have yielded negative results to date. The current existence of a global subsurface ocean, while attractive in explaining the observations, remains inconclusive. Future geophysical measurements are essential to determine conclusively whether or not there is a liquid water ocean within Europa today.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets↗

USGS2003

Resurfacing history of the northern plains of Mars based on geologic mapping of Mars Global Surveyor data

Geologic mapping of the northern plains of Mars, based on Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter topography and Viking and Mars Orbiter Camera images, reveals new insights into geologic processes and events in this region during the Hesperian and Amazonian Periods. We propose four successive stages of lowland resurfacing likely related to the activity of near-surface volatiles commencing at the highland-lowland boundary (HLB) and progressing to lower topographic levels as follows (highest elevations indicated): Stage 1, upper boundary plains, Early Hesperian, <-2.0 to -2.9 km; Stage 2, lower boundary plains and outflow channel dissection, Late Hesperian, <-2.7 to -4.0 km; Stage 3, Vastitas Borealis Formation (VBF) surface, Late Hesperian to Early Amazonian, <-3.1 to -4.1 km; and Stage 4, local chaos zones, Early Amazonian, <-3.8 to -5.0 km. At Acidalia Mensa, Stage 2 and 3 levels may be lower (<-4.4 and -4.8 km, respectively). Contractional ridges form the dominant structure in the plains and developed from near the end of the Early Hesperian to the Early Amazonian. Geomorphic evidence for a northern-plains-filling ocean during Stage 2 is absent because one did not form or its evidence was destroyed by Stage 3 resurfacing. Remnants of possible Amazonian dust mantles occur on top of the VBF. The north polar layered deposits appear to be made up of an up to kilometer-thick lower sequence of sandy layers Early to Middle Amazonian in age overlain by Late Amazonian ice-rich dust layers; both units appear to have outliers, suggesting that they once were more extensive.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗

USGS1996

Geyser periodicity and the response of geysers to deformation

Numerical simulations of multiphase fluid and heat transport through a porous medium define combinations of rock properties and boundary conditions which lead to geyser‐like periodic discharge. Within the rather narrow range of conditions that allow geyser‐like behavior, eruption frequency and discharge are highly sensitive to the intrinsic permeabilities of the geyser conduit and the surrounding rock matrix, to the relative permeability functions assumed, and to pressure gradients in the matrix. In theory, heat pipes (concomitant upward flow of steam and downward flow of liquid) can exist under similar conditions, but our simulations suggest that the periodic solution is more stable. Simulated time series of geyser discharge are chaotic, but integrated quantities such as eruption frequency and mass discharge per eruption are free of chaos. These results may explain the observed sensitivity of natural geysers to small strains such as those caused by remote earthquakes, if ground motion is sufficient to induce permeability changes. Changes in geyser behavior caused by minor preseismic deformation, periodic surface loading, and Earth tides are more difficult to explain in the context of our current model.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS1999

Debris-flow origin for the Simud/Tiu deposit on Mars

A late Hesperian smooth plains deposit on Mars interpreted as a debris flow extends more than 2000 km from Hydraotes Chaos, through Simud and Tiu Valles, and into Chryse Planitia. The Simud/Tiu deposit widens out to >1000 km and embays streamlined landforms and knobs made up of sedimentary and perhaps volcanic deposits that were carved by earlier channeling activity. Morphologic features of the Simud/Tiu deposit observed in Viking and Pathfinder images are generally consistent with a debris-flow origin, but some of the deposit's salient features are not readily explained by catastrophic flooding or ice flow. Internal depressions appear to be bounded by linear scarps along flow margins where differential shearing may have occurred and in areas where flow spreading may have produced zones of extensional breakup and thinning within the flow. Possible flow lobes within the deposit may have formed by successive flow surges within the flow unit. The Pathfinder landing site is on the Simud/Tiu deposit, and the observations there are consistent with debris flow. The low, longitudinal ridges at the site may have formed by clast interactions as the flow ground to a halt. Imbricated, planar rocks on the ridges, such as in the Rock Garden, also may have been emplaced by debris or ice flow. However, stream energy calculations at Ares Vallis and channel geology indicate that flooding probably was incapable of emplacing the meter-size boulders observed at the Pathfinder site. Dewatering of pressurized zones in the debris flow or underlying material may be responsible for mud eruptions that formed a couple of patches of low pancakelike shields up to 5 km in diameter and for probable water flows that formed two small rille channels a few kilometers long. Local irregular grooves may be cracks that resulted from later desiccation and contraction of the flow material. The debris-flow unit apparently coalesced from outflows of water-fluidized debris originating from beneath chaotic and hummocky terrains within and along the margins of Simud and Tiu Valles. The deposit is onlapped from the north by another flow deposit originating from Acidalia Planitia. If the Simud/Tiu debris flow had entered a standing body of water, a turbidity current may have arisen from the debris flow and then backflowed over the debris flow to account for the Acidalia deposit.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗

USGS1993

Nonlinear forecasting analysis of inflation-deflation patterns of an active caldera (Campi Flegrei, Italy)

The ground level in Pozzuoli, Italy, at the center of the Campi Flegrei caldera, was monitored by tide gauges between 1970 and 1976 and then continuously since 1982. Tide gauges offer a long record of a variable that is believed to be related to the activity of an underlying shallow magma chamber. Previous work suggests that the dynamics of the Campi Flegrei system, as reconstructed from the tide gauge record, is chaotic and low dimensional. According to this suggestion, in spite of the complexity of the system, at a time scale of days the ground motion is driven by a deterministic mechanism with few degrees of freedom; however, the interactions of the system may never be describable in full detail. Our new analysis of the tide gauge record from January 1987 to June 1989, using Nonlinear Forecasting, confirms low-dimensional chaos in the ground elevation record at Campi Flegrei and suggests that Nonlinear Forecasting could be a useful tool in volcanic surveillance.

Geology↗