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At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources
USGS2001

Evaluation of flash-flood discharge forecasts in complex terrain using precipitation

Operational prediction of flash floods produced by thunderstorm (convective) precipitation in mountainous areas requires accurate estimates or predictions of the precipitation distribution in space and time. The details of the spatial distribution are especially critical in complex terrain because the watersheds are generally small in size, and small position errors in the forecast or observed placement of the precipitation can distribute the rain over the wrong watershed. In addition to the need for good precipitation estimates and predictions, accurate flood prediction requires a surface-hydrologic model that is capable of predicting stream or river discharge based on the precipitation-rate input data. Different techniques for the estimation and prediction of convective precipitation will be applied to the Buffalo Creek, Colorado flash flood of July 1996, where over 75 mm of rain from a thunderstorm fell on the watershed in less than 1 h. The hydrologic impact of the precipitation was exacerbated by the fact that a significant fraction of the watershed experienced a wildfire approximately two months prior to the rain event. Precipitation estimates from the National Weather Service's operational Weather Surveillance Radar-Doppler 1988 and the National Center for Atmospheric Research S-band, research, dual-polarization radar, colocated to the east of Denver, are compared. In addition, very short range forecasts from a convection-resolving dynamic model, which is initialized variationally using the radar reflectivity and Doppler winds, are compared with forecasts from an automated-algorithmic forecast system that also employs the radar data. The radar estimates of rain rate, and the two forecasting systems that employ the radar data, have degraded accuracy by virtue of the fact that they are applied in complex terrain. Nevertheless, the radar data and forecasts from the dynamic model and the automated algorithm could be operationally useful for input to surface-hydrologic models employed for flood warning. Precipitation data provided by these various techniques at short time scales and at fine spatial resolutions are employed as detailed input to a distributed-parameter hydrologic model for flash-flood prediction and analysis. With the radar-based precipitation estimates employed as input, the simulated flood discharge was similar to that observed. The dynamic-model precipitation forecast showed the most promise in providing a significant discharge-forecast lead time. The algorithmic system's precipitation forecast did not demonstrate as much skill, but the associated discharge forecast would still have been sufficient to have provided an alert of impending flood danger.

Journal of Hydrologic Engineering↗
USGS2013

Projecting future grassland productivity to assess thesustainability of potential biofuel feedstock areas in theGreater Platte River Basin

This study projects future (e.g., 2050 and 2099) grassland productivities in the Greater Platte River Basin (GPRB) using ecosystem performance (EP, a surrogate for measuring ecosystem productivity) models and future climate projections. The EP models developed from a previous study were based on the satellite vegetation index, site geophysical and biophysical features, and weather and climate drivers. The future climate data used in this study were derived from the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model 3.0 ‘SRES A1B’ (a ‘middle’ emissions path). The main objective of this study is to assess the future sustainability of the potential biofuel feedstock areas identified in a previous study. Results show that the potential biofuel feedstock areas (the more mesic eastern part of the GPRB) will remain productive (i.e., aboveground grassland biomass productivity >2750 kg ha −1 year −1 ) with a slight increasing trend in the future. The spatially averaged EPs for these areas are 3519, 3432, 3557, 3605, 3752, and 3583 kg ha −1 year −1 for current site potential (2000–2008 average), 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050, and 2099, respectively. Therefore, the identified potential biofuel feedstock areas will likely continue to be sustainable for future biofuel development. On the other hand, grasslands identified as having no biofuel potential in the drier western part of the GPRB would be expected to stay unproductive in the future (spatially averaged EPs are 1822, 1691, 1896, 2306, 1994, and 2169 kg ha −1 year −1 for site potential, 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050, and 2099). These areas should continue to be unsuitable for biofuel feedstock development in the future. These future grassland productivity estimation maps can help land managers to understand and adapt to the expected changes in future EP in the GPRB and to assess the future sustainability and feasibility of potential biofuel feedstock areas.

GCB Bioenergy↗
USGS2006

One-way coupling of an atmospheric and a hydrologic model in Colorado

This paper examines the accuracy of high-resolution nested mesoscale model simulations of surface climate. The nesting capabilities of the atmospheric fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University (PSU)-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) were used to create high-resolution, 5-yr climate simulations (from 1 October 1994 through 30 September 1999), starting with a coarse nest of 20 km for the western United States. During this 5-yr period, two finer-resolution nests (5 and 1.7 km) were run over the Yampa River basin in northwestern Colorado. Raw and bias-corrected daily precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature time series from the three MM5 nests were used as input to the U.S. Geological Survey's distributed hydrologic model [the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS)] and were compared with PRMS results using measured climate station data. The distributed capabilities of PRMS were provided by partitioning the Yampa River basin into hydrologic response units (HRUs). In addition to the classic polygon method of HRU definition, HRUs for PRMS were defined based on the three MM5 nests. This resulted in 16 datasets being tested using PRMS. The input datasets were derived using measured station data and raw and bias-corrected MM5 20-, 5-, and 1.7-km output distributed to 1) polygon HRUs and 2) 20-, 5-, and 1.7-km-gridded HRUs, respectively. Each dataset was calibrated independently, using a multiobjective, stepwise automated procedure. Final results showed a general increase in the accuracy of simulated runoff with an increase in HRU resolution. In all steps of the calibration procedure, the station-based simulations of runoff showed higher accuracy than the MM5-based simulations, although the accuracy of MM5 simulations was close to station data for the high-resolution nests. Further work is warranted in identifying the causes of the biases in MM5 local climate simulations and developing methods to remove them. ?? 2006 American Meteorological Society.

Journal of Hydrometeorology↗
USGS2010

Visualizing NetCDF Files by Using the EverVIEW Data Viewer

Over the past few years, modelers in South Florida have started using Network Common Data Form (NetCDF) as the standard data container format for storing hydrologic and ecologic modeling inputs and outputs. With its origins in the meteorological discipline, NetCDF was created by the Unidata Program Center at the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, in conjunction with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and other organizations. NetCDF is a portable, scalable, self-describing, binary file format optimized for storing array-based scientific data. Despite attributes which make NetCDF desirable to the modeling community, many natural resource managers have few desktop software packages which can consume NetCDF and unlock the valuable data contained within. The U.S. Geological Survey and the Joint Ecosystem Modeling group, an ecological modeling community of practice, are working to address this need with the EverVIEW Data Viewer. Available for several operating systems, this desktop software currently supports graphical displays of NetCDF data as spatial overlays on a three-dimensional globe and views of grid-cell values in tabular form. An included Open Geospatial Consortium compliant, Web-mapping service client and charting interface allows the user to view Web-available spatial data as additional map overlays and provides simple charting visualizations of NetCDF grid values.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2012

Potential climate-induced runoff changes and associated uncertainty in four Pacific Northwest estuaries

As part of a larger investigation into potential effects of climate change on estuarine habitats in the Pacific Northwest, we estimated changes in freshwater inputs into four estuaries: Coquille River estuary, South Slough of Coos Bay, and Yaquina Bay in Oregon, and Willapa Bay in Washington. We used the U.S. Geological Survey's Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) to model watershed hydrological processes under current and future climatic conditions. This model allowed us to explore possible shifts in coastal hydrologic regimes at a range of spatial scales. All modeled watersheds are located in rainfall-dominated coastal areas with relatively insignificant base flow inputs, and their areas vary from 74.3 to 2,747.6 square kilometers. The watersheds also vary in mean elevation, ranging from 147 meters in the Willapa to 1,179 meters in the Coquille. The latitudes of watershed centroids range from 43.037 degrees north latitude in the Coquille River estuary to 46.629 degrees north latitude in Willapa Bay. We calibrated model parameters using historical climate grid data downscaled to one-sixteenth of a degree by the Climate Impacts Group, and historical runoff from sub-watersheds or neighboring watersheds. Nash Sutcliffe efficiency values for daily flows in calibration sub-watersheds ranged from 0.71 to 0.89. After calibration, we forced the PRMS models with four North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program climate models: Canadian Regional Climate Model-(National Center for Atmospheric Research) Community Climate System Model version 3, Canadian Regional Climate Model-Canadian Global Climate Model version 3, Hadley Regional Model version 3-Hadley Centre Climate Model version 3, and Regional Climate Model-Canadian Global Climate Model version 3. These are global climate models (GCMs) downscaled with regional climate models that are embedded within the GCMs, and all use the A2 carbon emission scenario developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. With these climate-forcing outputs, we derived the mean change in flow from the period encompassing the 1980s (1971-1995) to the period encompassing the 2050s (2041-2065). Specifically, we calculated percent change in mean monthly flow rate, coefficient of variation, top 5 percent of flow, and 7-day low flow. The trends with the most agreement among climate models and among watersheds were increases in autumn mean monthly flows, especially in October and November, decreases in summer monthly mean flow, and increases in the top 5 percent of flow. We also estimated variance in PRMS outputs owing to parameter uncertainty and the selection of climate model using Latin hypercube sampling. This analysis showed that PRMS low-flow simulations are more uncertain than medium or high flow simulations, and that variation among climate models was a larger source of uncertainty than the hydrological model parameters. These results improve our understanding of how climate change may affect the saltwater-freshwater balance in Pacific Northwest estuaries, with implications for their sensitive ecosystems.

Oregon;Washington↗
USGS1993

The proposed EROSpace institute, a national center operated by space grant universities

The "EROSpace Institute" is a proposed visiting scientist program in associated with the U.S. Geological Survey's EROS Data Center (EDC). The Institute would be operated by a consortium of universities, possible drawn from NASA's Space Grant College and Fellowship Program consortia and the group of 17 capability-enhancement consortia, or perhaps from consortia though out the nation with a topical interest in remote sensing. The National Center for Atmospheric Research or the Goddard Institute for Space Studies provide models for the structure of such an institute. The objectives of the Institute are to provide ready access to the body of data housed at the EDC and to increase the cadre of knowledgeable and trained scientists able to deal with the increasing volume of remote sensing data to become available from the Earth Observing System. The Institute would have a staff of about 100 scientists at any one time, about half permanent staff, and half visiting scientists. The latter would include graduate and undergraduate students, as well as faculty on temporary visits, summer fellowships, or sabbatical leaves. The Institute would provide office and computing facilities, as well as Internet linkages to the home institutions so that scientists could continue to participate in the program from their home base.

Pecora 12 Symposium↗
USGS1998

A strategy for assessing potential future changes in climate, hydrology, and vegetation in the Western United States

Historical and geological data indicate that significant changes can occur in the Earth's climate on time scales ranging from years to millennia. In addition to natural climatic change, climatic changes may occur in the near future due to increased concentrations of carbon dioxide and other trace gases in the atmosphere that are the result of human activities. International research efforts using atmospheric general circulation models (AGCM's) to assess potential climatic conditions under atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations of twice the pre-industrial level (a '2 X CO2' atmosphere) conclude that climate would warm on a global basis. However, it is difficult to assess how the projected warmer climatic conditions would be distributed on a regional scale and what the effects of such warming would be on the landscape, especially for temperate mountainous regions such as the Western United States. In this report, we present a strategy to assess the regional sensitivity to global climatic change. The strategy makes use of a hierarchy of models ranging from an AGCM, to a regional climate model, to landscape-scale process models of hydrology and vegetation. A 2 X CO2 global climate simulation conducted with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) GENESIS AGCM on a grid of approximately 4.5o of latitude by 7.5o of longitude was used to drive the NCAR regional climate model (RegCM) over the Western United States on a grid of 60 km by 60 km. The output from the RegCM is used directly (for hydrologic models) or interpolated onto a 15-km grid (for vegetation models) to quantify possible future environmental conditions on a spatial scale relevant to policy makers and land managers.

Circular↗
USGS2002

Physical attributes of some clouds amid a forest ecosystem's trees

Cloud or fog water collected by forest canopies of any elevation could represent significant sources of required moisture and nutrients for forest ecosystems, human consumption, and as an alternative source of water for agriculture and domestic use. The physical characteristics of fogs and other clouds have been well studied, and this information can be useful to water balance or canopy–cloud interaction model verification and to calibration or training of satellite-borne sensors to recognize atmospheric attributes, such as optical thickness, albedo, and cloud properties. These studies have taken place above-canopy or within canopy clearings and rarely amid the canopy. Simultaneous physical and chemical characteristics of clouds amid and above the trees of a mountain forest, located about 3.3 km southwest of Mt. Mitchell, NC, were collected between 13 and 22 June 1993. This paper summarizes the physical characteristics of the cloud portions amid the trees. The characteristic cloud amid the trees (including cloud and precipitation periods) contained 250 droplet/cm 3 with a mean diameter of 9.5 μm and liquid water content (LWC) of 0.11 g m −3 . The cloud droplets exhibited a bimodal distribution with modes at about 2 and 8 μm and a mean diameter near 5 μm during precipitation-free periods, whereas the concurrent above-canopy cloud droplets had a unimodal distribution with a mode near 6 μm and a mean diameter of 6 μm. The horizontal cloud water flux is nonlinearly related to the rate of collection onto that surface amid the trees, especially for the Atmospheric Sciences Research Center (ASRC) sampling device, whereas it is linear when the forward scattering spectrometer probe (FSSP) are is used. These findings suggest that statements about the effects clouds have on surfaces they encounter, which are based on above-canopy or canopy-clearing data, can be misleading, if not erroneous.

Atmospheric Research↗
USGS2011

The influence of the Atlantic Warm Pool on the Florida panhandle sea breeze

In this paper we examine the variations of the boreal summer season sea breeze circulation along the Florida panhandle coast from relatively high resolution (10 km) regional climate model integrations. The 23 year climatology (1979–2001) of the multidecadal dynamically downscaled simulations forced by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction–Department of Energy (NCEP‐DOE) Reanalysis II at the lateral boundaries verify quite well with the observed climatology. The variations at diurnal and interannual time scales are also well simulated with respect to the observations. We show from composite analyses made from these downscaled simulations that sea breezes in northwestern Florida are associated with changes in the size of the Atlantic Warm Pool (AWP) on interannual time scales. In large AWP years when the North Atlantic Subtropical High becomes weaker and moves further eastward relative to the small AWP years, a large part of the southeast U.S. including Florida comes under the influence of relatively strong anomalous low‐level northerly flow and large‐scale subsidence consistent with the theory of the Sverdrup balance. This tends to suppress the diurnal convection over the Florida panhandle coast in large AWP years. This study is also an illustration of the benefit of dynamic downscaling in understanding the low‐frequency variations of the sea breeze.

Florida↗
USGS2021

Long-term ecosystem and biogeochemical research in Loch Vale watershed, Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado

Loch Vale watershed was instrumented in 1983 with initial support from the National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program to ask whether ecosystems of Rocky Mountain National Park (RMNP) were affected by acidic atmospheric deposition. Research and monitoring activities were expanded in 1991 by the U.S. Geological Survey Water, Energy, and Biogeochemical Budgets program to understand the processes, and their interactions, controlling water, energy, and biogeochemical fluxes. With help from many collaborators we have characterized trends and patterns in atmospheric deposition, climate, and hydrology, including glaciers and other ice features. Instead of acidic deposition, we documented high atmospheric inputs of reactive nitrogen (Nr), and have studied the ecological consequences in soils, surface water, and vegetation. Using paleolimnology, we documented the onset of human-caused change to lake primary producers ca. 1950 in response to increased Nr deposition and warming. Our results provided the basis for the Colorado Nitrogen Deposition Reduction Plan, a state policy that aims to reduce Nr emissions to protect resources in RMNP by 2032. Carbon cycle research revealed mountain wetlands now release more carbon than they store, and respiration and methane flux occurs even during winter through deep snow packs. Trend analyses found export of Nr to be closely tied to atmospheric inputs, but can lag in response to drought. Current research explores consequences of the combination of warming, changes in precipitation dynamics, and atmospheric deposition of Nr and dust on stream and lake CO 2 dynamics, lake biology and trophic state, and soil carbon composition. Dramatic increases in park visitors have prompted studies on the effects of recreational use on water quality. New tools such as remote sensing and high frequency instream water quality sensors are being applied to lake and stream studies. Monitoring, combined with experiments, models, and spatial comparisons is an essential foundation for science-based resource management.

Colorado↗
USGS2017

Abundant carbon substrates drive extremely high sulfate reduction rates and methane fluxes in Prairie Pothole Wetlands

Inland waters are increasingly recognized as critical sites of methane emissions to the atmosphere, but the biogeochemical reactions driving such fluxes are less well understood. The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of North America is one of the largest wetland complexes in the world, containing millions of small, shallow wetlands. The sediment pore waters of PPR wetlands contain some of the highest concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and sulfur species ever recorded in terrestrial aquatic environments. Using a suite of geochemical and microbiological analyses, we measured the impact of sedimentary carbon and sulfur transformations in these wetlands on methane fluxes to the atmosphere. This research represents the first study of coupled geochemistry and microbiology within the PPR and demonstrates how the conversion of abundant labile DOC pools into methane results in some of the highest fluxes of this greenhouse gas to the atmosphere ever reported. Abundant DOC and sulfate additionally supported some of the highest sulfate reduction rates ever measured in terrestrial aquatic environments, which we infer to account for a large fraction of carbon mineralization in this system. Methane accumulations in zones of active sulfate reduction may be due to either the transport of free methane gas from deeper locations or the co-occurrence of methanogenesis and sulfate reduction. If both respiratory processes are concurrent, any competitive inhibition of methanogenesis by sulfate-reducing bacteria may be lessened by the presence of large labile DOC pools that yield noncompetitive substrates such as methanol. Our results reveal some of the underlying mechanisms that make PPR wetlands biogeochemical hotspots, which ultimately leads to their critical, but poorly recognized role in regional greenhouse gas emissions.

North Dakota↗
USGS2014

Marine fog: a review

The objective of this review is to discuss physical processes over a wide range of spatial scales that govern the formation, evolution, and dissipation of marine fog. We consider marine fog as the collective combination of fog over the open sea along with coastal sea fog and coastal land fog. The review includes a history of sea fog research, field programs, forecasting methods, and detection of sea fog via satellite observations where similarity in radiative properties of fog top and the underlying sea induce further complexity. The main thrust of the study is to provide insight into causality of fog including its initiation, maintenance, and destruction. The interplay between the various physical processes behind the several stages of marine fog is among the most challenging aspects of the problem. An effort is made to identify this interplay between processes that include the microphysics of fog formation and maintenance, the influence of large-scale circulation and precipitation/clouds, radiation, turbulence (air-sea interaction), and advection. The environmental impact of marine fog is also addressed. The study concludes with an assessment of our current knowledge of the phenomenon, our principal areas of ignorance, and future lines of research that hold promise for advances in our understanding.

Atmospheric Research↗
USGS2012

Sulfur dioxide and particles in quiescent volcanic plumes from Poás, Arenal, and Colima Volcanos, Costa Rica and Mexico

Measurements of SO 2 emission rates and concentrations and of particle distribution, size, shape, and composition were made in quiescent volcanic plumes emitted into the troposphere from Poás and Arenal volcanos, Costa Rica, and Colima volcano, Mexico. SO 2 emission rates were 700±180 metric tons per day (t/d) for Poás, 210±30 t/d for Arenal, and 320±50 t/d for Colima. The concentrations of SO 2 calculated from the COSPEC/lidar data were 5–380 ppb. Concentrations of SO 2 measured directly by flame photometry were 10–250 ppb. Particles collected in the plumes with a quartz crystal microbalance impactor were mostly less than 3 μm in diameter and consisted of droplets of dilute sulfur-bearing solutions and minor amounts of larger silicate particles coated with a sulfur-bearing film or crust. Total particle concentrations were 4.7 μg/m 3 for Poás and 18.8 μg/m 3 for Colima. Comparison of concentrations of SO 2 in the plumes with gas samples collected at fumaroles on the ground suggests that the plumes are diluted by the atmosphere by factors of up to 10 5 .

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres↗
USGS2011

Effects of nitrogen deposition and empirical nitrogen critical loads for ecoregions of the United States

Human activity in the last century has led to a significant increase in nitrogen (N) emissions and atmospheric deposition. This N deposition has reached a level that has caused or is likely to cause alterations to the structure and function of many ecosystems across the United States. One approach for quantifying the deposition of pollution that would be harmful to ecosystems is the determination of critical loads. A critical load is defined as the input of a pollutant below which no detrimental ecological effects occur over the long-term according to present knowledge. The objectives of this project were to synthesize current research relating atmospheric N deposition to effects on terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems in the United States, and to estimate associated empirical N critical loads. The receptors considered included freshwater diatoms, mycorrhizal fungi, lichens, bryophytes, herbaceous plants, shrubs, and trees. Ecosystem impacts included: (1) biogeochemical responses and (2) individual species, population, and community responses. Biogeochemical responses included increased N mineralization and nitrification (and N availability for plant and microbial uptake), increased gaseous N losses (ammonia volatilization, nitric and nitrous oxide from nitrification and denitrification), and increased N leaching. Individual species, population, and community responses included increased tissue N, physiological and nutrient imbalances, increased growth, altered root : shoot ratios, increased susceptibility to secondary stresses, altered fire regime, shifts in competitive interactions and community composition, changes in species richness and other measures of biodiversity, and increases in invasive species. The range of critical loads for nutrient N reported for U.S. ecoregions, inland surface waters, and freshwater wetlands is 1-39 kg N.ha -1.yr -1, spanning the range of N deposition observed over most of the country. The empirical critical loads for N tend to increase in the following sequence for different life forms: diatoms, lichens and bryophytes, mycorrhizal fungi, herbaceous plants and shrubs, and trees. The critical load approach is an ecosystem assessment tool with great potential to simplify complex scientific information and communicate effectively with the policy community and the public. This synthesis represents the first comprehensive assessment of empirical critical loads of N for major ecoregions across the United States. ?? 2011 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2012

Interactive coupling of a lake thermal model with a regional climate model

A one‐dimensional model of lake temperature, evaporation, and ice has been coupled in an interactive mode with the climate version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research/Pennsylvania State University regional (mesoscale) atmospheric model (MM4). The coupled MM4‐lake model makes possible high‐resolution simulations of climate in the proximity of large water bodies. Atmospheric variables required as input for the lake model are supplied by MM4 and simulated values of lake temperature, evaporation, and ice cover axe supplied to MM4 by the lake model. We have tested the coupled model system with a 60‐day, summertime simulation at Pyramid Lake, Nevada, and with a 10‐day, wintertime simulation of the North American Great Lakes and vicinity. Both simulations were conducted at a 60‐km resolution. Results from these tests indicate the coupled model system produces realistic simulations of lake temperature, evaporation, and ice cover and that the coupled system is applicable to simulations of regional climate change.

Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres↗
USGS2023

VogCast: A framework for modeling volcanic air pollution and its application to the 2022 eruption of Mauna Loa Volcano, Hawai'i

Volcanic activity and the associated gas emissions into the atmosphere often result in adverse air quality conditions and present a hazard to human health and the environment. Building on a decade-long effort to provide operational surface sulfur dioxide and sulfate aerosol forecasts for the State of Hawai'i, we present an air quality modeling framework called VogCast. VogCast is designed to simplify ensemble air quality prediction on a regional scale by linking together multiple state-of-the-art models of meteorology, emissions, and dispersion. The framework is open-source and introduces a new dynamic plume-rise algorithm for distributing pollutants vertically. Using radar and satellite data, we demonstrate that VogCast reasonably captured the mean injection height, the location, and the general envelope of the vog plume during Mauna Loa's 2022 eruption. The results suggest that during the 12-day eruption period model performance varied between days with trade and non-trade wind conditions. Our findings also highlight the importance of sulfur dioxide emission rate and vent parameter inputs for improving forecast accuracy. The broad goal of this work is to better our understanding of vog dispersion and improve air quality prediction for impacted communities.

Hawaii↗
USGS2008

Evaluating the effects of historical land cover change on summertime weather and climate in New Jersey: Land cover and surface energy budget changes

The 19th-century agrarian landscape of New Jersey (NJ) and the surrounding region has been extensively transformed to the present-day land cover by urbanization, reforestation, and localized areas of deforestation. This study used a mesoscale atmospheric numerical model to investigate the sensitivity of the warm season climate of NJ to these land cover changes. Reconstructed 1880s-era and present-day land cover data sets were used as surface boundary conditions for a set of simulations performed with the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). Three-member ensembles with historical and present-day land cover were compared to examine the sensitivity of surface air and dew point temperatures, rainfall, and the individual components of the surface energy budget to these land cover changes. Mean temperatures for the present-day landscape were 0.3-0.6??C warmer than for the historical landscape over a considerable portion of NJ and the surrounding region, with daily maximum temperatures at least 1.0??C warmer over some of the highly urbanized locations. Reforested regions, however, were slightly cooler. Dew point temperatures decreased by 0.3-0.6??C, suggesting drier, less humid near-surface air for the present-day landscape. Surface warming was generally associated with repartitioning of net radiation from latent to sensible heat flux, and conversely for cooling. While urbanization was accompanied by strong surface albedo decreases and increases in net shortwave radiation, reforestation and potential changes in forest composition have generally increased albedos and also enhanced landscape heterogeneity. The increased deciduousness of forests may have further reduced net downward longwave radiation. Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.

New Jersey↗