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USGS2013

AMAP Assessment 2013: Arctic Ocean acidification

This assessment report presents the results of the 2013 AMAP Assessment of Arctic Ocean Acidification (AOA). This is the first such assessment dealing with AOA from an Arctic-wide perspective, and complements several assessments that AMAP has delivered over the past ten years concerning the effects of climate change on Arctic ecosystems and people. The Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) is a group working under the Arctic Council. The Arctic Council Ministers have requested AMAP to: - produce integrated assessment reports on the status and trends of the conditions of the Arctic ecosystems; - identify possible causes for the changing conditions; - detect emerging problems, their possible causes, and the potential risk to Arctic ecosystems including indigenous peoples and other Arctic residents; and to - recommend actions required to reduce risks to Arctic ecosystems. This report provides the accessible scientific basis and validation for the statements and recommendations made in the Arctic Ocean Acidification Assessment Summary for Policy-makers that was delivered to Arctic Council Ministers at their meeting in Kiruna, Sweden in May 2011 and the related AMAP State of the Arctic Environment report Arctic Ocean Acidification 2013: An Overview . It includes extensive background data and references to the scientific literature, and details the sources for figures reproduced in the overview report. Whereas the Summary for Policy-makers report contains recommendations that focus mainly on policy-relevant actions concerned with addressing the consequences of AOA, the conclusions and recommendations presented in this report also cover issues of a more scientific nature, such as proposals for filling gaps in knowledge, and recommendations relevant to future monitoring and research work. The AOA assessment was conducted between 2010 and 2013 by an international group of over 60 experts. Lead authors were selected based on an open nomination process coordinated by AMAP. A similar process was used to select international experts who independently reviewed this report. Information contained in this report is fully references and based on first and foremost peer-reviewed and published results of research and monitoring undertaken since 2006. It also incorporates some new (unpublished) information from monitoring and research conducted according to well-established and documented national and international standards of quality assurance/quality control protocols. Care has been taken to ensure that no critical probability statements are based on non-peer-reviewed materials. Access to reliable and up-to-date information is essential for the development of science-based decision-making regarding ongoing changes in the Arctic and their global implications. The AOA assessment summary reports and films have therefore been developed specifically for policy-makers, summarizing the main findings of the AOA assessment. The AOA lead authors have confirmed that both this report and its derivative products accurately and fully reflect their scientific assessment. The AOA reports and the films are freely available from the AMAP Secretariat and on the AMAP website: www.amap.no, and their use for educational purposes is encouraged. AMAP would like to express its appreciation to all experts who have contributed their time, efforts and data, in particular the lead authors who coordinated the production of this report. Thanks are also due to the reviewers who contributed to the AOA peer-review process and provided valuable comments that helped to ensure the quality of the report. A list of the main contributors is included at the start of each chapter. The list is not comprehensive. Specifically, it does not include the many national institutes, laboratories and organizations, and their staff, which have been involved in various countries in AOA-related monitoring and research. Apologies, and no lesser thanks are given to any individuals unintentionally omitted from the list. The support from the Arctic countries and non-Arctic countries implementing research and monitoring in the Arctic is vital to the success of AMAP. The AMAP work is essentially based on ongoing activities within these countries, and the countries that provide the necessary support for most the experts involved in the preparation of the AMAP assessments. In particular, AMAP would like to acknowledge Norway for taking the lead-country role in this assessment and thank Canada, Norway, Sweden, USA and the Nordic Council of Ministers for their financial support to the AOA work. The AMAP Working Group is pleased to present its assessment to the Arctic Council and the international science community. Richard Bellerby (AOA assessment Chair) Russel Shearer (AMAP Chair) Lars-Otto Reiersen (AMAP Executive Secretary) Oslo, May 2013

Report↗
USGS2002

Persistent organochlorine pollutants in ringed seals and polar bears collected from northern Alaska

Blubber samples from ringed seal (Phoca hispida; n=8) and polar bear subcutaneous fat (Ursus maritimus; n=5) were collected near Barrow, Alaska in 1996 as part of the Alaska Marine Mammal Tissue Archival Project (AMMTAP) and retained in the National Biomonitoring Specimen Bank at the National Institute of Standards and Technology in Gaithersburg, Maryland (USA). The samples were analyzed for a variety of persistent organochlorine pollutants (POPs) including polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), hexachlorocyclohexanes (HCHs), chlordane and metabolites, hexachlorobenzene (HCB) and DDTs and metabolites. The geometric mean, on a wet mass basis, of ??PCBs (sum of 29 congeners and congener groups) were 732??282 ng/g (1 S.D.) in seals and 3395??1442 ng/g in polar bears. The geometric mean of ??DDTs, ??HCHs (??-, ??- and ??- HCH) and HCB concentrations (wet mass basis) in seals and bears were 562??261 ng/g vs. 74.8??39 ng/g, 380??213 ng/g vs. 515 ng/g, and 17.4??10.1 ng/g vs. 183??153 ng/g, respectively. The geometric mean sum of chlordane (??chlordane, sum of cis- and trans-chlordane, cis- and trans-nonachlor, oxychlordane and heptachlor epoxide) and dieldrin concentrations in ringed seals and polar bears were 753??617 ng/g vs. 720??315 ng/g and 38.6??22.8 ng/g vs. 130??65 ng/g, respectively. Apparent bioaccumulation factors (polar bear/ringed seal POP concentrations) were lower in the animals sampled near Barrow, Alaska than in those from locations in the Canadian Arctic. This suggests that polar bears are also preying on marine mammals from lower trophic levels than the ringed seals with correspondingly lower organochlorine levels, such as bowhead whale carcasses. PCB congener patterns in the samples demonstrated the metabolism of certain PCB congeners in the polar bear relative to the ringed seal in agreement with previous studies. Regional comparisons of animals collected in Alaska and Arctic Canada are presented. Copyright ?? 2002 Elsevier Science B.V.

Science of the Total Environment↗
USGS2003

Geographical distribution of organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) in polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in the Norwegian and Russian Arctic

Geographical variation of organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) was studied in blood samples from 90 adult female polar bear (Ursus maritimus) from Svalbard, Franz Josef Land, Kara Sea, East-Siberian Sea and Chukchi Sea. In all regions, oxychlordane was the dominant OCP. Regional differences in mean levels of HCB, oxychlordane, trans-nonachlor, ??-HCH, ??-HCH and p,p???-DDE were found. The highest levels of oxychlordane, trans-nonachlor and DDE were found in polar bears from Franz Josef Land and Kara Sea. HCB level was lowest in polar bears from Svalbard. Polar bears from Chukchi Sea had the highest level of ??- and ??-HCH. The lowest ??-HCH concentration was found in bears from Kara Sea. In all the bears, ???HCHs was dominated by ??-HCH. The geographical variation in OCP levels and pattern may suggest regional differences in pollution sources and different feeding habits in the different regions. Polar bears from the Western Russian Arctic were exposed to higher levels of chlordanes and p,p???-DDE than polar bears from locations westwards and eastwards from this region. This may imply the presence of a significant pollution source in the Russian Arctic area. The study suggests that the western Russian Arctic is the most contaminated region of the Arctic and warrants further research. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Science of the Total Environment↗
USGS2011

The ANTOSTRAT legacy: Science collaboration and international transparency in potential marine mineral resource exploitation of Antarctica

The Antarctic Offshore Stratigraphy project (ANTOSTRAT; 1989–2002) was an extremely successful collaboration in international marine geological science that also lifted the perceived “veil of secrecy” from studies of potential exploitation of Antarctic marine mineral resources. The project laid the groundwork for circum-Antarctic seismic, drilling, and rock coring programs designed to decipher Antarctica’s tectonic, stratigraphic, and climate histories. In 2002, ANTOSTRAT evolved into the equally successful and currently active Antarctic Climate Evolution research program. The need for, and evolution of, ANTOSTRAT was based on two simple tenets within SCAR and the Antarctic Treaty: international science collaboration and open access to data. The ANTOSTRAT project may be a helpful analog for other regions of strong international science and geopolitical interests, such as the Arctic. This is the ANTOSTRAT story.

Book chapter↗
USGS2011

An evaluation of the science needs to inform decisions on Outer Continental Shelf energy development in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas, Alaska

The U. S. Geological Survey (USGS) was asked to conduct an initial, independent evaluation of the science needs that would inform the Administration's consideration of the right places and the right ways in which to develop oil and gas resources in the Arctic Outer Continental Shelf (OCS), particularly focused on the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas. Oil and gas potential is significant in Arctic Alaska. Beyond petroleum potential, this region supports unique fish and wildlife resources and ecosystems, and indigenous people who rely on these resources for subsistence. This report summarizes key existing scientific information and provides initial guidance of what new and (or) continued research could inform decision making. This report is presented in a series of topical chapters and various appendixes each written by a subset of the USGS OCS Team based on their areas of expertise. Three chapters (Chapters 2, 3, and 4) provide foundational information on geology; ecology and subsistence; and climate settings important to understanding the conditions pertinent to development in the Arctic OCS. These chapters are followed by three chapters that examine the scientific understanding, science gaps, and science sufficiency questions regarding oil-spill risk, response, and impact (Chapter 5), marine mammals and anthropogenic noise (Chapter 6), and cumulative impacts (Chapter 7). Lessons learned from the 1989 Exxon Valdez Oil Spill are included to identify valuable "pre-positioned" science and scientific approaches to improved response and reduced uncertainty in damage assessment and restoration efforts (appendix D). An appendix on Structured Decision Making (appendix C) is included to illustrate the value of such tools that go beyond, but incorporate, science in looking at what can/should be done about policy and implementation of Arctic development. The report provides a series of findings and recommendations for consideration developed during the independent examination of science gaps and sufficiency. These recommendations are important for understanding what the USGS discovered in the course of this study and to help inform and improve decision making.

Circular↗
USGS2016

Arctic Research Plan: FY2017-2021

The United States is an Arctic nation—Americans depend on the Arctic for biodiversity and climate regulation and for natural resources. America’s Arctic—Alaska—is at the forefront of rapid climate, environmental, and socio-economic changes that are testing the resilience and sustainability of communities and ecosystems. Research to increase fundamental understanding of these changes is needed to inform sound, science-based decision- and policy-making and to develop appropriate solutions for Alaska and the Arctic region as a whole. Created by an Act of Congress in 1984, and since 2010 a subcommittee of the National Science and Technology Council (NSTC) in the Executive Office of the President, the Interagency Arctic Research Policy Committee (IARPC) plays a critical role in advancing scientific knowledge and understanding of the changing Arctic and its impacts far beyond the boundaries of the Arctic. Comprising 14 Federal agencies, offices, and departments, IARPC is responsible for the implementation of a 5-year Arctic Research Plan in consultation with the U.S. Arctic Research Commission, the Governor of the State of Alaska, residents of the Arctic, the private sector, and public interest groups.

Report↗
USGS2020

Looking forward, looking back: Building resilience today Training one report. International Arctic Research Center, Fairbanks, AK, April 16-18, 2019

The Alaska Climate Adaptation Science Center (AK CASC), in partnership with the Aleutian Pribilof Islands Association (APIA), designed the Looking Forward, Looking Back: Building Resilience Today project (hereafter BRT) as a series of trainings and workshops with tribal community leadership and members to collaboratively develop the western science knowledge and Indigenous Knowledge necessary for tribal community adaptation plans. Rather than replicate existing tribally-focused climate adaptation training in Alaska, this pilot project sought to include a range of best practices in education, specifically in climate science and tribal engagement, and builds upon the experience and expertise of the partner teams and communities, the facilitating team, and subject-matter experts. The project had three phases related to its title and structure. The core idea of the Looking Forward, Looking Back: Building Resilience Today project is to include multiple knowledges into adaptation plans that result in resilient communities. Looking Forward refers to the need to plan for our rapidly changing climate by critically considering current and future projected climate and its impacts on the community and Tribe. Looking Back refers to the need for any realistic tribal planning process, and subsequent planning document, to be grounded in Indigenous and local knowledge. The overarching goal of Building Resilience Today is to introduce planning tools that strengthen community capacity to plan for the future, while maintaining important values grounded in the past. Training One: The goal of the first training was to bring the cohort of community members and project team members together to work in teams to gain a common understanding of local climate impacts and longer-term climate projections at the local, regional, statewide, Arctic, and global level.

Alaska↗
USGS2017

Status of natural and human environment

This report present the results of the 2017 AMAP Assessment of Adaptation Actions for a changing Arctic (AACA): Perspectives form the Bering-Chukchi-Beaufort Region. This is one of three pilot study regions included in the AACA project. AACA is the first AMAP assessment dealing with adaptation actions and how to meet possible Arctic futures in these times of rapid chance. Information contained in this report is fully referenced and based first and foremost on peer-reviewed and published results of research and monitoring undertaken within the past decade. Care has been taken to ensure that no critical probability statements are based on non-peer-reviewed materials Access to reliable and up-to-date information is essential for the development of science-based decision-making regarding ongoing changes in the Arctic and their global implications.

Bering-Chukchi-Beaufort region↗
USGS2004

Remote sensing of vegetation and land-cover change in Arctic Tundra Ecosystems

The objective of this paper is to review research conducted over the past decade on the application of multi-temporal remote sensing for monitoring changes of Arctic tundra lands. Emphasis is placed on results from the National Science Foundation Land–Air–Ice Interactions (LAII) program and on optical remote sensing techniques. Case studies demonstrate that ground-level sensors on stationary or moving track platforms and wide-swath imaging sensors on polar orbiting satellites are particularly useful for capturing optical remote sensing data at sufficient frequency to study tundra vegetation dynamics and changes for the cloud prone Arctic. Less frequent imaging with high spatial resolution instruments on aircraft and lower orbiting satellites enable more detailed analyses of land cover change and calibration/validation of coarser resolution observations. The strongest signals of ecosystem change detected thus far appear to correspond to expansion of tundra shrubs and changes in the amount and extent of thaw lakes and ponds. Changes in shrub cover and extent have been documented by modern repeat imaging that matches archived historical aerial photography. NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) time series provide a 20-year record for determining changes in greenness that relates to photosynthetic activity, net primary production, and growing season length. The strong contrast between land materials and surface waters enables changes in lake and pond extent to be readily measured and monitored.

Remote Sensing of Environment↗
USGS2017

Environment and science

Alaska is part of an international circumpolar North, which makes the United States an Arctic nation. Alaska is a place of Indigenous ingenuity and adaptation, a place where environmental extremes challenge the ways of living. In its more recent history, Alaska has been a place of resources and influx-a land known best for what it provides. This frontier persona, with its sourdoughs and prospectors, has not been easily shed, but Alaska today is pivotal because it represents America's North and a complex and changing Arctic. North: Finding Place in Alaska explores the state's various facets through exhibitions and artifacts at the Anchorage Museum and the words of a diverse selection of writers, curators, historians, anthropologists, and artists. From romantic landscapes by Rockwell Kent and Thomas Hill, to the art and spirituality of Alaska's Native peoples represented by a bentwood feast dish and a uniquely carved hook for catching halibut, this collection examines connections throughout the circumpolar North. No longer as remote as once thought, Alaska serves as a narrative for our future.

Book chapter↗
USGS2016

Circumpolar Biodiversity Monitoring Programme coastal biodiversity monitoring background paper

In 2014, the United States (U.S.) and Canada agreed to act as co-lead countries for the initial development of the Coastal Expert Monitoring Group (CEMG) as part of the Circumpolar Biodiversity Monitoring Program (CBMP, www. cbmp.is) under the Arctic Council’s Conservation of Arctic Flora and Fauna (CAFF, www.caff.is) working group. The CAFF Management Board approved Terms of Reference for the CEMG in the spring of 2014. The primary goal of the CEMG is to develop a long term, integrated, multi-disciplinary, circumpolar Arctic Coastal Biodiversity Monitoring Plan (the Coastal Plan) that relies on science and Traditional Knowledge, and has direct and relevant application for communities, industry, government decision makers, and other users. In addition to the monitoring plan, the CAFF working group has asked the CBMP, and thus the CEMG, to develop an implementation plan that identifies timeline, costs, organizational structure and partners. This background paper provides a platform for the guidance for the development of the Coastal Plan and is produced by the CEMG with assistance from a number of experts in multiple countries.

Report↗
USGS2008

Monitoring lingering oil from the Exxon Valdez spill on Gulf of Alaska armored beaches and mussel beds sixteen years post-spill

Final Rept. ; Prepared in Cooperation With Alaska Univ., Fairbanks. Inst. of Arctic Biology. Sponsored By National Marine Fisheries Service, Juneau, Ak. Alaska Fisheries Science Center. ; Stranded Exxon Valdez Oil Has Persisted for 16 Years At Boulder- Armored Beach Sites Along National Park Coastlines Bordering the Gulf of Alaska . These Sites Are Up to 640 Km From the Spill Origin and Were Contaminated By Oil Mousse, a Viscous Water-in- Oil Emulsion. Although Surface Oil Has Continued to Decline, Subsurface Oiling Persists in Patches. Especially Striking Is the General Lack of Weathering of Stranded Oil on Armored Beaches Over the Last 16 Years . At Three of the Four Sites Where Oil Was Sampled in 2005, the Oil Was Compositionally Similar to 11-Day Old Exxon Valdez Oil , Even After 16 Years . The Formation of Mousse Allowed Less-Weathered Oil to Be Transported Long Distances. The Sequestration of the Oil Beneath a Boulder Armor, Coupled With the Stability of the Boulder Armoring (Investigated By Examining Movement of Marked Boulders), Had Contributed to the Lengthy Persistence of This Stranded Oil. Opportunistic Sampling of Several Previously Studied Oiled Mussel Beds Indicates Continued Contamination of At Least One of the Sites By Not Very Weathered Exxon Valdez Oil. Long-Term Persistence of Oil in These Habitats Should Cause Reconsideration of Response Activities After Spills, and May Influence the Environmental Sensitivity Indices Applied to These Habitats.

Report↗
USGS2001

Regional variations in provenance and abundance of ice-rafted clasts in Arctic Ocean sediments: Implications for the configuration of late Quaternary oceanic and atmospheric circulation in the Arctic

The composition and distribution of ice-rafted glacial erratics in late Quaternary sediments define the major current systems of the Arctic Ocean and identify two distinct continental sources for the erratics. In the southern Amerasia basin up to 70% of the erratics are dolostones and limestones (the Amerasia suite) that originated in the carbonate-rich Paleozoic terranes of the Canadian Arctic Islands. These clasts reached the Arctic Ocean in glaciers and were ice-rafted to the core sites in the clockwise Beaufort Gyre. The concentration of erratics decreases northward by 98% along the trend of the gyre from southeastern Canada basin to Makarov basin. The concentration of erratics then triples across the Makarov basin flank of Lomonosov Ridge and siltstone, sandstone and siliceous clasts become dominant in cores from the ridge and the Eurasia basin (the Eurasia suite). The bedrock source for the siltstone and sandstone clasts is uncertain, but bedrock distribution and the distribution of glaciation in northern Eurasia suggest the Taymyr Peninsula-Kara Sea regions. The pattern of clast distribution in the Arctic Ocean sediments and the sharp northward decrease in concentration of clasts of Canadian Arctic Island provenance in the Amerasia basin support the conclusion that the modem circulation pattern of the Arctic Ocean, with the Beaufort Gyre dominant in the Amerasia basin and the Transpolar drift dominant in the Eurasia basin, has controlled both sea-ice and glacial iceberg drift in the Arctic Ocean during interglacial intervals since at least the late Pleistocene. The abruptness of the change in both clast composition and concentration on the Makarov basin flank of Lomonosov Ridge also suggests that the boundary between the Beaufort Gyre and the Transpolar Drift has been relatively stable during interglacials since that time. Because the Beaufort Gyre is wind-driven our data, in conjunction with the westerly directed orientation of sand dunes that formed during the last glacial maximum on the North Slope of Alaska, suggests that atmospheric circulation in the western Arctic during late Quaternary was similar to that of the present. ?? 2001 Elsevier Science B.V.

Marine Geology↗
USGS1991

Pliocene shallow water paleoceanography of the North Atlantic ocean based on marine ostracodes

Middle Pliocene marine ostracodes from coastal and shelf deposits of North and Central America and Iceland were studied to reconstruct paleotemperatures of shelf waters bordering portions of the Western Boundary Current System (including the Gulf Loop Current, Florida Current, Gulf Stream and North Atlantic Drift). Factor analytic transfer functions provided Pliocene August and February bottom-water temperatures of eight regions from the tropics to the subfrigid. The results indicate: (1) meridional temperature gradients in the western North Atlantic were less steep during the Pliocene than either today or during Late Pleistocene Isotope Stage 5e; (2) tropical and subtropical shelf waters during the Middle Pliocene were as warm as, or slightly cooler than today; (3) slightly cooler water was on the outer shelf off the southeastern and mid-Atlantic coast of the U.S., possibly due to summer upwelling of Gulf Stream water; (4) the shelf north of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina may have been influenced by warm water incursions from the western edge of the Gulf Stream, especially in summer; (5) the northeast branch of the North Atlantic Drift brought warm water to northern Iceland between 4 and 3 Ma; evidence from the Iceland record indicates that cold East Greenland Current water did not affect coastal Iceland between 4 and 3 Ma; (6) Middle Pliocene North Atlantic circulation may have been intensified, transporting more heat from the tropics to the Arctic than it does today.

Quaternary Science Reviews↗
USGS2011

Indigenous observations of climate change in the Lower Yukon River Basin, Alaska

Natural science climate change studies have led to an overwhelming amount of evidence that the Arctic and Subarctic are among the world's first locations to begin experiencing climate change. Indigenous knowledge of northern regions is a valuable resource to assess the effects of climate change on the people and the landscape. Most studies, however, have focused on coastal Arctic and Subarctic communities with relatively little focus on inland communities. This paper relates the findings from fieldwork conducted in the Lower Yukon River Basin of Alaska in the spring of 2009. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with hunters and elders in the villages of St. Mary's and Pitka's Point, Alaska to document observations of climate change. This study assumes that scientific findings and indigenous knowledge are complementary and seeks to overcome the false dichotomy that these two ways of knowing are in opposition. The observed changes in the climate communicated by the hunters and elders of St. Mary's and Pitka's Point, Alaska are impacting the community in ways ranging from subsistence (shifting flora and fauna patterns), concerns about safety (unpredictable weather patterns and dangerous ice conditions), and a changing resource base (increased reliance on fossil fuels). Here we attempt to address the challenges of integrating these two ways of knowing while relating indigenous observations as described by elders and hunters of the study area to those described by scientific literature.

Human Organization↗
USGS2024

Geolocators, stable isotopes, and citizen science identify migratory timing, route, and spring molt of Smith’s Longspurs

Climate change is having a disproportionate impact on the Arctic. For Arctic breeding birds, basic knowledge of their annual cycle, specifically the timing, route, and movement behavior of migration, is needed to understand when and where populations may experience threats. We used a combination of geolocators and stable isotope analysis to identify route and timing of migration in Smith’s Longspurs ( Calcarius pictus ) that breed in Alaska’s Brooks Range. We trapped males on their breeding grounds from 2011 to 2014 and collected head feathers for stable isotopes of hydrogen (δ²H). We deployed 22 geolocators on a subset of individuals and retrieved four, which all overwintered in southern Texas. Individual start dates for fall migration based on geolocators were more variable than for the spring, and individuals were highly mobile while on their wintering grounds. Geolocators and stable isotope values were comparable across years and indicated that birds from the Brooks Range undergo their pre-nuptial molt in central Canada. We compared geolocator and stable isotope inferred locations to observations submitted to e-Bird and found that longspurs were distributed farther south during the winter months, but farther north during the spring than most eBird observations. Concurrent deployments of geolocator tags across Smith’s Longspurs’ breeding range would clarify whether migratory behaviors and routes are population-specific or shared widely across breeding locations.

Avian Conservation and Ecology↗
USGS2014

Reconstruction of historic sea ice conditions in a sub-Arctic lagoon

Historical sea ice conditions were reconstructed for Izembek Lagoon, Bering Sea, Alaska. This lagoon is a crucial staging area during migration for numerous species of avian migrants and a major eelgrass ( Zostera marina ) area important to a variety of marine and terrestrial organisms, especially Pacific Flyway black brant geese ( Branta bernicla nigricans ). Ice cover is a common feature of the lagoon in winter, but appears to be declining, which has implications for eelgrass distribution and abundance, and its use by wildlife. We evaluated ice conditions from a model based on degree days, calibrated to satellite observations, to estimate distribution and long-term trends in ice conditions in Izembek Lagoon. Model results compared favorably with ground observations and 26 years of satellite data, allowing ice conditions to be reconstructed back to 1943. Specifically, periods of significant (limited access to eelgrass areas) and severe (almost complete ice coverage of the lagoon) ice conditions could be identified. The number of days of severe ice within a single season ranged from 0 (e.g., 2001) to ≥ 67 (e.g., 2000). We detected a slight long-term negative trend in ice conditions, superimposed on high inter-annual variability in seasonal aggregate ice conditions. Based on reconstructed ice conditions, the seasonally cumulative number of significant or severe ice days correlated linearly with mean air temperature from January until March. Further, air temperature at Izembek Lagoon was correlated with wind direction, suggesting that ice conditions in Izembek Lagoon were associated with synoptic-scale weather patterns. Methods employed in this analysis may be transferable to other coastal locations in the Arctic.

Alaska↗