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Development of a pan-Arctic monitoring plan for polar bears: Background paper

Polar bears (Ursus maritimus), by their very nature, and the extreme, remote environment in which they live, are inherently difficult to study and monitor. Monitoring polar bear populations is both arduous and costly and, to be effective, must be a long-term commitment. There are few jurisdictional governments and management boards with a mandate for polar bear research and management, and many have limited resources. Although population monitoring of polar bears has been a focus to some degree within most jurisdictions around the Arctic, of the 19 subpopulations recognised by the IUCN/Species Survival Commission Polar Bear Specialist Group (PBSG), adequate scientific trend data exist for only three of the subpopulations, fair trend data for five and poor or no trend data for the remaining 11 subpopulations (PBSG 2010a). There are especially critical knowledge gaps for the subpopulations in East Greenland, in the Russian Kara and Laptev seas, and in the Chukchi Sea, which is shared between Russia and the United States. The range covered by these subpopulations represents a third of the total area (approx. 23 million km2) of polar bears’ current range, and more than half if the Arctic Basin is included. If we use popular terms, we know close to nothing about polar bears in this portion of their range. As summer sea-ice extent, and to a lesser degree, spring-time extent, continues to retreat, outpacing model forecasts (Stroeve et al. 2007, Pedersen et al. 2009), polar bears face the challenge of adapting to rapidly changing habitats. There is a need to use current and synthesised information across the Arctic, and to develop new methods that will facilitate monitoring to generate new knowledge at a pan-Arctic scale. The circumpolar dimension can be lost when efforts are channelled into regional monitoring. Developing and implementing a plan that harmonises local, regional and global efforts will increase our power to detect and understand important trends for polar bears, with particular emphasis on how climate warming may differentially affect populations and habitats. Current knowledge is inadequate for a comprehensive understanding of the present and future impact of climate warming and its interaction with other stressors. The cumulative effects are unknown (Laidre et al. 2008). An integrated pan-Arctic research and monitoring plan will improve the ability to detect future trends, identify the most vulnerable subpopulations and guide effective conservation. There is a need to direct attention and resources where data are deficient to understand the mechanisms that drive trends, and to facilitate more effective and timely conservation response.

Report↗

Alaska Arctic marine fish ecology catalog

The marine fishes in waters of the United States north of the Bering Strait have received new and increased scientific attention over the past decade (2005–15) in conjunction with frontier qualities of the region and societal concerns about the effects of Arctic climate change. Commercial fisheries are negligible in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas, but many marine species have important traditional and cultural values to Alaska Native residents. Although baseline conditions are rapidly changing, effective decisions about research and monitoring investments must be based on reliable information and plausible future scenarios. For the first time, this synthesis presents a comprehensive evaluation of the marine fish fauna from both seas in a single reference. Although many unknowns and uncertainties remain in the scientific understanding, information presented here is foundational with respect to understanding marine ecosystems and addressing dual missions of the U.S. Department of the Interior for energy development and resource conservation.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Relations between atmospheric circulation and mass balance of South Cascade Glacier, Washington, USA

The yearly net mass balance of South Cascade Glacier, Washington, has decreased since the mid-1970s. Results show that the decrease is primarily caused by a significant decrease in the winter mass balance. The decrease in winter mass balance is caused, in part, by changes in winter mean atmospheric circulation that began during the mid-1970s. Approximately 60% of the variability in winter mass balance can be explained by variations in winter mean 700-mb heights over western Canada. Since the mid-1970s, there has been an increase in winter mean 700-mb heights over western Canada and the northern western contiguous United States and a decrease in winter mean 700-mb heights in the eastern North Pacific Ocean centered near the Aleutian Islands. These changes in atmospheric circulation indicate a decrease in the movement of storms and moisture from the Pacific Ocean into the western contiguous United States. In addition, the increase in winter mean 700-mb heights over western Canada and the northern western contiguous United States indicates an increase in subsidence, which results in a warming and drying of the air that further reduces precipitation and also increases the ratio of rain to snow during the cold season. These factors contribute to below-average winter mass balances.

Arctic and Alpine Research↗

Impacts of ocean-atmosphere teleconnection patterns on the south-central United States

Recent research has linked the climate variability associated with ocean-atmosphere teleconnections to impacts rippling throughout environmental, economic, and social systems. This research reviews recent literature through 2021 in which we identify linkages among the major modes of climate variability, in the form of ocean-atmosphere teleconnections, and the impacts to temperature and precipitation of the South-Central United States (SCUSA), consisting of Arkansas, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas. The SCUSA is an important areal focus for this analysis because it straddles the ecotone between humid and arid climates in the United States and has a growing population, diverse ecosystems, robust agricultural and other economic sectors including the potential for substantial wind and solar energy generation. Whereas a need exists to understand atmospheric variability due to the cascading impacts through ecological and social systems, our understanding is complicated by the positioning of the SCUSA between subtropical and extratropical circulation features and the influence of the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, and the adjacent Gulf of Mexico. The Southern Oscillation (SO), Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the related Arctic Oscillation (AO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation/Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMO/AMV), and Pacific Decadal Oscillation/Pacific Decadal Variability (PDO/PDV) have been shown to be important modulators of temperature and precipitation variables at the monthly, seasonal, and interannual scales, and the intraseasonal Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) in the SCUSA. By reviewing these teleconnection impacts in the region alongside updated seasonal correlation maps, this research provides more accessible and comparable results for interdisciplinary use on climate impacts beyond the atmospheric-environmental sciences.

Arkansas, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas↗

USGS Alaska Tissue Archival Projects: An update on FY02 activities

The banking of environmental specimens under cryogenic conditions for future retrospective analysis has been recognized for many years as an important part of environmental monitoring programs. Since 1987, the Alaska Marine Mammal Tissue Archival Project (AMMTAP) has been collecting tissue samples from marine mammals for archival in the National Biomonitoring Specimen Bank (NBSB) at the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) in Gaithersburg, Maryland, USA. The USGS, Alaska Biological Science Center (ABSC), the NOAA Fisheries, Office of Protected Resources (NMFS), and the NIST conduct this partnership project, which began under the Mineral Management Service (MMS) Outer Continental Shelf Environmental Assessment Program. MMS remains the primary client agency for the AMMTAP providing programmatic guidance and review. The purpose of the project is to collect tissue samples from Alaska marine mammals and to store these specimens under the best conditions so that they can be analyzed for environmental contaminants and other constituents. A substantial part of the sample collection is from Arctic species and, since most of the animals sampled are from Alaska Native subsistence harvests, the project relies on cooperation and collaboration with several Alaska Native organizations and local governmental agencies. Although a substantial amount of recent research has been conducted on contaminants in Alaskan marine mammals, few data exists on colonial seabirds nesting in Alaska. Like marine mammals, seabirds are an important group of upper trophic level marine organisms with a potential for accumulating lipophilic contaminants and are identified by MMS as species of interest for monitoring activities. More than 95% of the seabirds breeding in the continental United States nest at colonies in the Bering and Chukchi seas and Gulf of Alaska (see USFWS 1992). Realizing the value of colonial seabirds in environmental monitoring and the lack of recent data from Alaskan seabird colonies, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Alaska Maritime National Wildlife Refuge (USFWS-AMNWR), the U.S. Geological Survey Biological Resources Division (USGS-BRD), and the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) initiated the Seabird Tissue Archival and Monitoring Project (STAMP) in 1998. The project was designed as a 100-year-long program to monitor long-term trends in environmental quality by collecting eggs at nesting colonies using standardized protocols, banking the egg contents under conditions that ensure chemical stability during long-term (decadal) storage, and analyzing subsamples of the stored material to establish baseline levels for persistent bioaccumulative contaminants (e.g., chlorinated pesticides, PCBs, mercury).

Conference Paper↗

Arctic Refuge coastal plain terrestrial wildlife research summaries

In 1980, when the U.S. Congress enacted the Alaska National Interest Lands Conservation Act (ANILCA), it also mandated a study of the coastal plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. Section 1002 of ANILCA stated that a comprehensive inventory of fish and wildlife resources would be conducted on 1.5 million acres of the Arctic Refuge coastal plain (1002 Area). Potential petroleum reserves in the 1002 Area were also to be evaluated from surface geological studies and seismic exploration surveys. Results of these studies and recommendations for future management of the Arctic Refuge coastal plain were to be prepared in a report to Congress. In 1987, the Department of the Interior published the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, Alaska, Coastal Plain Resource Assessment - Report and Recommendations to the Congress of the United States and Final Environmental Impact Statement. This report to Congress identified the potential for oil and gas production (updated* most recently by the U.S. Geological Survey in 2001), described the biological resources, and evaluated the potential adverse effects to fish and wildlife resources. The 1987 report analyzed the potential environmental consequences of five management alternatives for the coastal plain, ranging from wilderness designation to opening the entire area to lease for oil and gas developement. The report's summary recommended opening the 1002 Area to an orderly oil and gas leasing program, but cautioned that adverse effects to some wildlife populations were possible. Congress did not act on this recommendation nor any other alternative for the 1002 Area, and scientists continued studies of key wildlife species and habitats on the coastal plain of the Arctic Refuge and surrounding areas. This report contains updated summaries of those scientific investigations of caribou, muskoxen, predators (grizzly bears, wolves, golden eagles), polar bears, snow geese, and their wildlife habitats. Contributions to this report were made by scientists affiliated with the U.S. Geological Survey; U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service; Alaska Department of Fish and Game; University of Alaska-Fairbanks; Canadian Wildlife Service; Yukon Department of Renewable Resources; and the Northwest Territories Department of Resources, Wildlife, and Economic Development. Sections of the report presenting new information on caribou and forage plants were peer-reviewed by three independent, non-affiliated scientists. The remaining sections summarize previously published peer-reviewed scientific papers and were reviewed by a single independent scientist. The U.S. Geological Survey and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service collaborated in the publication of this report.

Alaska, Northwest Territories, Yukon Territory↗

2008 Joint United States-Canadian program to explore the limits of the Extended Continental Shelf aboard the U.S. Coast Guard cutter Healy --Cruise HLY0806

In September 2008, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with Natural Resources Canada, Geological Survey of Canada (GSC), conducted bathymetric and geophysical surveys in the Arctic Beaufort Sea aboard the U.S. Coast Guard cutter USCGC Healy . The principal objective of this mission to the high Arctic was to acquire data in support of delineation of the outer limits of the U.S. and Canadian Extended Continental Shelf (ECS) in the Arctic Ocean in accordance with the provisions of Article 76 of the Law of the Sea Convention. The Healy was accompanied by the Canadian Coast Guard icebreaker Louis S. St- Laurent . The science parties on the two vessels consisted principally of staff from the USGS ( Healy ), and the GSC and the Canadian Hydrographic Service ( Louis ). The crew included marine mammal and Native-community observers, ice observers, and biologists conducting research of opportunity in the Arctic Ocean. The joint survey proved an unqualified success. The Healy collected 5,528 km of swath (multibeam) bathymetry (38,806 km 2 ) and CHIRP subbottom profile data, with accompanying marine gravity measurements. The Louis acquired 2,817 km of multichannel seismic (airgun) deep-penetration reflection-profile data along 12 continuous lines, as well as 35 sonobuoy refraction stations and accompanying single-beam bathymetry. The coordinated efforts of the two vessels resulted in seismic-reflection profile data of much higher quality and continuity than if the data had been acquired with a single vessel alone. Equipment failure rate of the seismic equipment gear aboard the Louis was greatly improved with the advantage of having a leading icebreaker. When ice conditions proved too severe to deploy the seismic system, the Louis led the Healy , resulting in much improved quality of the swath bathymetry and CHIRP sub-bottom data in comparison with data collected by the Healy in the lead or working alone. Ancillary science objectives, including ice observations, deployment of ice-monitoring buoys and water-column sampling for biologic (phytoplankton) studies, were also successfully accomplished.

Open-File Report↗

Permafrost–wildfire interactions: active layer thickness estimates for paired burned and unburned sites in northern high latitudes

As the northern high-latitude permafrost zone experiences accelerated warming, permafrost has become vulnerable to widespread thaw. Simultaneously, wildfire activity across northern boreal forest and Arctic/subarctic tundra regions impacts permafrost stability through the combustion of insulating organic matter, vegetation, and post-fire changes in albedo. Efforts to synthesis the impacts of wildfire on permafrost are limited and are typically reliant on antecedent pre-fire conditions. To address this, we created the FireALT dataset by soliciting data contributions that included thaw depth measurements, site conditions, and fire event details with paired measurements at environmentally comparable burned and unburned sites. The solicitation resulted in 52 466 thaw depth measurements from 18 contributors across North America and Russia. Because thaw depths were taken at various times throughout the thawing season, we also estimated end-of-season active layer thickness (ALT) for each measurement using a modified version of the Stefan equation. Here, we describe our methods for collecting and quality-checking the data, estimating ALT, the data structure, strengths and limitations, and future research opportunities. The final dataset includes 48 669 ALT estimates with 32 attributes across 9446 plots and 157 burned–unburned pairs spanning Canada, Russia, and the United States. The data span fire events from 1900 to 2022 with measurements collected from 2001 to 2023. The time since fire ranges from 0 to 114 years. The FireALT dataset addresses a key challenge: the ability to assess impacts of wildfire on ALT when measurements are taken at various times throughout the thaw season depending on the time of field campaigns (typically June through August) by estimating ALT at the end-of-season maximum. This dataset can be used to address understudied research areas, particularly algorithm development, calibration, and validation for evolving process-based models as well as extrapolating across space and time, which could elucidate permafrost–wildfire interactions under accelerated warming across the high-northern-latitude permafrost zone. The FireALT dataset is available through the Arctic Data Center ( https://doi.org/10.18739/A2RN3092P , Talucci et al., 2024).

Arctic↗

Geologic studies in Alaska by the U.S. Geological Survey, 1988

This volume continues the annual series of U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) reports on geologic investigations in Alaska. Since 1975, when the first of these collections of short papers appeared under the title "The United States Geological Survey in Alaska: Accomplishments during 1975," the series has been published as USGS circulars. This bulletin departs from the circular style, in part to provide a more flexible format for longer reports with more depth of content, better documentation, and broader scope than is possible for circular articles. The 13 papers in this bulletin represent a sampling of research activities carried out in Alaska by the USGS over the past few years. The topics addressed range from mineral resource studies (including natural gas) and geochemistry, Quaternary geology, basic stratigraphic and structural problems, and the use of computer graphics in geologic map preparation, to the application of geochronology to regional tectonic problems. Geographic areas represented are numbered on figure 1 and include the North Slope (1) and Brooks Range (2, 3) of Arctic Alaska, Seward Peninsula (4), interior Alaska (5-9), and remote locations of the Alaska Peninsula (10, 11) and southeast Alaska (12, 13). Two bibliographies following the reports of investigations list (1) reports about Alaska in USGS publications released in 1988 and (2) reports about Alaska by USGS authors in publications outside the USGS in 1988. A bibliography and index of the short papers in past USGS circulars devoted to Geological Research and Accomplishments in Alaska (1975-1986) is published as USGS Open-File Report 87-420.

Alaska↗

Mass balance of two perennial snowfields: Niwot Ridge, Colorado and the Ulaan Taiga, Mongolia.

Perennial snowfields are generally receding worldwide, though the precise mechanisms causing recessions are not always well understood. Here we apply a numerical snowpack model to identify the leading factors controlling the mass balance of two perennial snowfields that have significant human interest: Arapaho glacier, located at Niwot Ridge in the Colorado Rocky Mountains (United States), and a snowfield located in the Ulaan Taiga (Mongolia). The two locations were chosen because they differ in elevation, slope and aspect. However, both have sub-arctic climates and are located within semi-arid regions. We show that for these two locations the snowfield mass balance is primarily sensitive to air temperature and wind speed, followed by precipitation and dust deposition amounts. We find that the sensitivities are similar for the center of the snowfield as well as the margins.

Colorado↗

Geography of Alaska lake districts: Identification, description, and analysis of lake-rich regions of a diverse and dynamic state

Lakes are abundant landforms and important ecosystems in Alaska, but are unevenly distributed on the landscape with expansive lake-poor regions and several lake-rich regions. Such lake-rich areas are termed lake districts and have landscape characteristics that can be considered distinctive in similar respects to mountain ranges. In this report, we explore the nature of lake-rich areas by quantitatively identifying Alaska’s lake districts, describing and comparing their physical characteristics, and analyzing how Alaska lake districts are naturally organized and correspond to climatic and geophysical characteristics, as well as studied and managed by people. We use a digital dataset (National Hydrography Dataset) of lakes greater than 1 hectare, which includes 409,040 individual lakes and represents 3.3 percent of the land-surface area of Alaska. The selection criteria we used to identify lake districts were (1) a lake area (termed limnetic ratio, in percent) greater than the mean for the State, and (2) a lake density (number of lakes per unit area) greater than the mean for the State using a pixel size scaled to the area of interest and number of lakes in the census. Pixels meeting these criteria were grouped and delineated and all groups greater than 1,000 square kilometers were identified as Alaska’s lake districts. These lake districts were described according to lake size-frequency metrics, elevation distributions, geology, climate, and ecoregions to better understand their similarities and differences. We also looked at where lake research and relevant ecological monitoring has occurred in Alaska relative to lake districts and how lake district lands and waters are currently managed. We identified and delineated 20 lake districts in Alaska representing 16 percent of the State, but including 65 percent of lakes and 75 percent of lake area. The largest lake districts identified are the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Arctic Coastal Plain, and Iliamna lake districts with high limnetic ratios of 19, 17, and 21 percent, respectively. The three smallest districts we considered were Tetlin in the eastern interior, Menhiskof on the Alaska Peninsula, and Matanuska–Susitna at the head of Cook Inlet with limnetic ratios of 14, 9, and 9 percent, respectively. Lake density and limnetic ratio were poorly related among lake districts, such that some districts had a few large lakes like Iliamna with Lakes Iliamna and Becharof—the two largest in the State, compared to other districts with many very small lakes like Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta with 111,130 lakes and 63 percent of these less than 10 hectares. Most lake districts are in regions with relatively low precipitation, but temperature regimes varied widely among lake districts. Approximately one-half of lake districts were glaciated during the Pleistocene and similar numbers occur in regions classified as having continuous, discontinuous, and sporadic permafrost, or perennially unfrozen soils. Most districts are at low elevations (less than 250 meters) with two important exceptions being Tetlin with a mean elevation of 530 meters and Ahtna with a mean elevation of 760 meters. These higher elevation districts, particularly Ahtna, had distinct characteristics from other lake districts such as continuous permafrost and Pleistocene glaciation. Several lake districts share similar boundaries to defined ecoregions with lake districts occurring in less than one-half of these 32 ecoregions of Alaska. Most lake districts are lands fully or partly managed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and the National Park Service, with other land management by the Bureau of Land Management and State and borough government. Much of the U.S. Geological Survey’s lake water-quality sampling efforts has been done in the Arctic Coastal Plain, Matanuska-Susitna, and Iliamna districts but no recorded collections in nine lake districts. Similarly, most lake limnological studies in Alaska were site-specific and represent only a small portion of Alaska’s lake districts. This identification, characterization, and analysis of lake-rich regions may help provide a template to guide future limnological and other scientific research for Alaska.

Alaska↗

2010 Joint United States-Canadian Program to explore the limits of the Extended Continental Shelf aboard U.S. Coast Guard Cutter Healy--Cruise HLY1002

In August and September 2010, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Natural Resources Canada, Geological Survey of Canada, conducted bathymetric and geophysical surveys in the Beaufort Sea and eastern Arctic Ocean aboard the U.S. Coast Guard Cutter Healy. The principal objective of this mission to the high Arctic was to acquire data in support of a delineation of the outer limits of the U.S. and Canadian Extended Continental Shelf in the Arctic Ocean, in accordance with the provisions of Article 76 of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. The Healy was accompanied by the Canadian Coast Guard icebreaker Louis S. St-Laurent. The scientific parties on board the two vessels consisted principally of staff from the U.S. Geological Survey (Healy), and the Geological Survey of Canada and the Canadian Hydrographic Service (Louis). The crew also included marine-mammal observers, Native-community observers, ice observers, and biologists conducting research of opportunity in the Arctic Ocean. Despite interruptions necessitated by three medical emergencies, the joint survey proved largely successful. The Healy collected 7,201 trackline-kilometers of swath (multibeam) bathymetry (47,663 square kilometers) and CHIRP subbottom data, with accompanying marine gravity measurements, and expendable bathythermograph data. The Louis acquired 3,673 trackline-kilometers of multichannel seismic (airgun) deep-penetration reflection data along 25 continuous profiles, as well as 34 sonobuoy refraction stations and 9,500 trackline-kilometers of single-beam bathymetry. The coordinated efforts of the two vessels resulted in seismic-reflection-profile data that were of much higher quality and continuity than if the data had been acquired with a single vessel alone. The equipment-failure rate of the seismic equipment aboard the Louis was greatly reduced when the Healy led as the ice breaker. When ice conditions proved too severe to deploy the seismic system, the Louis led the Healy, resulting in much improved quality of the swath bathymetric and CHIRP subbottom data in comparison with data collected either by the Healy in the lead or the Healy working alone. During periods when the Healy was operating alone (principally when the Louis was diverted for emergency medical evacuations or ship repairs), the Healy was able to deploy a piston-core-sampler (10 meters maximum potential recovery depending on configuration). The coring operations resulted in recovery of cores at five locations ranging from 2.4 to 5.7 meters in length from water depths ranging from 1,157 to 3,700 meters. One of these cores sited on the Alaskan margin recovered the first reported occurrence of methane hydrate from the Arctic Ocean. Ancillary science objectives, including ice observations and deployment of ice-monitoring buoys and water-column sampling to measure acidification of Arctic waters were successfully conducted. The water-column sampling included using 10 full-ocean-depth, water-sampling casts with accompanying conductivity-temperature-depth measurements. Except for the data deemed proprietary, data from the cruise have been archived and are available for download at the National Geophysical Data Center and at cooperating organizations. Outreach staff and guest teachers aboard the two vessels provided near-real-time connection between the research activities and the public through online blogs, web pages, and other media.

Open-File Report↗

Petroleum and mineral resources of Antarctica

No known petroleum or mineral resources occur in Antarctica. The data on these subjects have been collected, mainly since the IGY (International Geophysical Year), 1957-58, as a part of other research carried out by geologists and geophysicists from a number of countries. Specific resource-related studies have not been made. Wright and Williams (1974) summarized what was known of Antarctic mineral resources a decade ago. The U.S. Geological Survey has been actively pursuing various investigations in Antarctica since 194 7. In the course of this work and that of our colleagues elsewhere in the United States and in other countries, much information relevant to petroleum and mineral resources has been obtained. Since 1976, modern state-of-the-art multichannel seismic reflection and aeromagnetic surveys by several countries over the continental margin of Antarctica have indicated thick sedimentary basins. However, no offshore drilling beneath the continental shelf has taken place since the DSDP (Deep Sea Drilling Project) holes in the Ross Sea in 1973. Geologic field investigations begun at the turn of the twentieth century have been intensified in the past two decades; most rock outcrops have been visited and samples collected. Technology to exploit resources, particularly in the Arctic, has been developing at a rapid rate, and much of it could be applied to Antarctica. As a result of the petroleum price increases of the past decade, the attention of a number of countries has turned to Antarctica, but under the policy of "voluntary restraint" adopted by the Antarctic Treaty nations, no active petroleum or mineral exploration is taking place. The Antarctic treaty countries are in the process of negotiating an Antarctic mineral resources regime that is anticipated to be completed within the next several years. Therefore it seemed timely to us to readdress the question of petroleum and mineral resources. These reports review and summarize the available information. The first report summarizes the information relevant to petroleum resources. Although uneconomic at present, petroleum is generally considered more likely to be exploited (if supergiant fields were ever found) in the next few decades than hard minerals. The second report reviews the reported occurrences of minerals in Antarctica and discusses their significance. The final report discusses the Dufek layered mafic intrusion, second only to the Bushveld Complex in size in the world; the Dufek intrusion might be considered as a potential target for mineral exploration.

Circular↗

Documenting Arctic sea ice dynamics with Global Fiducials Program imagery

For more than 25 years, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has used the remote-sensing capabilities of United States National Imagery Systems (USNIS) to obtain high-resolution electro-optical imagery to monitor Earth’s response to global environmental change. A major focus has been monitoring sea ice behavior in the Arctic Ocean and its marginal seas. In 1997 and 1998, under the direction of the Global Fiducials Program (GFP), USNIS imagery was collected during the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) Project. In 1999, collection of USNIS imagery of six static sea ice sites in the Arctic Ocean and its marginal seas began, and the imagery was archived in the USGS-hosted Global Fiducials Library (GFL). The static sites were imaged through 2014, creating time series of geographically referenced images which scientists have used to study seasonal changes in Arctic ice over the same locations for extended time periods. In early 2009, the Central Intelligence Agency’s MEDEA Program requested that the USGS use USNIS imagery to track movements of sea ice floes during an entire Arctic summer (April through September). The goal was to improve researchers’ understanding of seasonal changes in Arctic sea ice. In order to track and repeatedly capture imagery of the same ice as it drifted across the Arctic Ocean, the USGS developed a methodology and a series of protocols to use data from telemetering drift buoys deployed at locations across the Arctic Ocean by the International Arctic Buoy Programme (IABP) to track the drift of targeted ice masses for periods that exceeded a year. Resulting time series of sea ice imagery, captured while monitoring 38 individual buoys, were archived in the GFL. In 2013 and 2014, in support of the Seasonal Ice Zone Reconnaissance Surveys (SIZRS) Program led by the University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, the USGS requested the collection of USNIS imagery of selected sites in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas located at every degree of latitude between 70º and 80º N. along a north-south transect. This was done to track and understand the interplay among the ice, atmosphere, and ocean and what it contributes to the rapid decline in summer ice extent that has occurred in recent years. Under the auspices of the GFP, thousands of sea ice images have been collected. Many of those that pass a quality and cloud-cover screening are archived in the GFL. Of these, more than 1,750 sea ice images have been publicly released, following an editing and processing procedure that produces high-resolution degraded images, known as “literal imagery-derived products” or LIDPs. These LIDPs have been approved for free, unrestricted public distribution and scientific analysis. The LIDPs can be downloaded from the USGS Global Fiducials Library Data Access Portal (USGS GFLDAP) at https://www.usgs.gov/global-fiducials-library-data-access-portal . In addition, nonliteral imagery-derived products (nonliteral IDPs), such as metadata, maps, charts, and graphs, have also been released.

Open-File Report↗

Evaluation of development options for Alaska North Slope viscous and heavy oil

Current estimates of discovered viscous and heavy oil in Alaska’s North Slope are 12 billion barrels of oil-in-place and 12–18 billion barrels of oil-in-place, respectively (see Appendix 1 for conversion to SI units). Since the early 1990s to the end of 2010, cumulative viscous oil production has amounted to 150 million barrels, and there has been no commercial production of heavy oil. During the last three decades, the industry has been challenged to develop technologies to commercially produce these untapped oil resources in this Arctic environment. In this paper, the general locations and geologic properties of the viscous oil-bearing West Sak/Schrader Bluff and heavy oil-bearing Ugnu stratigraphic intervals are described first. The geologic variability within these deposits and the evolution of technology have forced an incremental development approach, requiring costly field testing at the pilot scale of innovative extraction techniques. Although viscous oil is currently produced, its development is not mature, and firms appear to be still spending large sums on new approaches to improve recovery. The analysis specifies a representative viscous oil project and then applies a “real options” framework using simulation to determine whether the risked expected project value is sufficient to fund required expenditures on extraction process research and field testing. Computations show available field test funds to be highly sensitive to the operator’s hurdle rate of return as well as the range in magnitude of potential State revenues. The contribution of the paper is solving this problem using an approach where the extreme low return and high scenarios need only be specified, and where the uncertainties are modeled with beta distributions based on historical data or expert opinion.

Alaska↗

Atmospheric deposition and critical loads for nitrogen and metals in Arctic Alaska: Review and current status

To protect important resources under their bureau’s purview, the United States National Park Service’s (NPS) Arctic Network (ARCN) has developed a series of “vital signs” that are to be periodically monitored. One of these vital signs focuses on wet and dry deposition of atmospheric chemicals and further, the establishment of critical load (CL) values (thresholds for ecological effects based on cumulative depositional loadings) for nitrogen (N), sulfur, and metals. As part of the ARCN terrestrial monitoring programs, samples of the feather moss Hylocomium splendens are being col- lected and analyzed as a cost-effective means to monitor atmospheric pollutant deposition in this region. Ultimately, moss data combined with refined CL values might be used to help guide future regulation of atmospheric contaminant sources potentially impacting Arctic Alaska. But first, additional long-term studies are needed to determine patterns of contaminant deposition as measured by moss biomonitors and to quantify ecosystem responses at particular loadings/ ranges of contaminants within Arctic Alaska. Herein we briefly summarize 1) current regulatory guidance related to CL values 2) derivation of CL models for N and metals, 3) use of mosses as biomonitors of atmospheric deposition and loadings, 4) preliminary analysis of vulnerabilities and risks associated with CL estimates for N, 5) preliminary analysis of existing data for characterization of CL values for N for interior Alaska and 6) implications for managers and future research needs.

Alaska↗

The United States National Climate Assessment - Alaska Technical Regional Report

The Alaskan landscape is changing, both in terms of effects of human activities as a consequence of increased population, social and economic development and their effects on the local and broad landscape; and those effects that accompany naturally occurring hazards such as volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, and tsunamis. Some of the most prevalent changes, however, are those resulting from a changing climate, with both near term and potential upcoming effects expected to continue into the future. Alaska's average annual statewide temperatures have increased by nearly 4°F from 1949 to 2005, with significant spatial variability due to the large latitudinal and longitudinal expanse of the State. Increases in mean annual temperature have been greatest in the interior region, and smallest in the State's southwest coastal regions. In general, however, trends point toward increases in both minimum temperatures, and in fewer extreme cold days. Trends in precipitation are somewhat similar to those in temperature, but with more variability. On the whole, Alaska saw a 10-percent increase in precipitation from 1949 to 2005, with the greatest increases recorded in winter. The National Climate Assessment has designated two well-established scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Nakicenovic and others, 2001) as a minimum set that technical and author teams considered as context in preparing portions of this assessment. These two scenarios are referred to as the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A2 and B1 scenarios, which assume either a continuation of recent trends in fossil fuel use (A2) or a vigorous global effort to reduce fossil fuel use (B1). Temperature increases from 4 to 22°F are predicted (to 2070-2099) depending on which emissions scenario (A2 or B1) is used with the least warming in southeast Alaska and the greatest in the northwest. Concomitant with temperature changes, by the end of the 21st century the growing season is expected to lengthen by 15-25 days in some areas of Alaska, with much of that corresponding with earlier spring snow melt. Future projections of precipitation (30-80 years) over Alaska show an increase across the State, with the largest changes in the northwest and smallest in the southeast. Because of increasing temperatures and growing season length, however, increased precipitation may not correspond with increased water availability, due to temperature related increased evapotranspiration. The extent of snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere has decreased by about 10 percent since the late 1960s, with stronger trends noted since the late 1980s. Alaska has experienced similar trends, with a strong decrease in snow cover extent occurring in May. When averaged across the State, the disappearance of snow in the spring has occurred from 4 to 6 days earlier per decade, and snow return in fall has occurred approximately 2 days later per decade. This change appears to be driven by climate warming rather than a decrease in winter precipitation, with average winter temperatures also increasing by about 2.5°F. The extent of sea ice has been declining, as has been widely published in both national and scientific media outlets, and is projected to continue to decline during this century. The observed decline in annual sea ice minimum extent (September) has occurred more rapidly than was predicted by climate models and has been accompanied by decreases in ice thickness and in the presence of multi-year ice. This decrease was first documented by satellite imagery in the late 1970s for the Bering and Chukchi Seas, and is projected to continue, with the potential for the disappearance of summer sea ice by mid- to late century. A new phenomenon that was not reported in previous assessments is ocean acidification. Uptake of carbon dioxide (CO2) by oceans has a significant effect on marine biogeochemistry by reducing seawater pH. Ocean acidification is of particular concern in Alaska, because cold sea water absorbs CO2 more rapidly than warm water, and a decrease in sea ice extent has allowed increased sea surface exposure and more uptake of CO2 into these northern waters. Ocean acidification will likely affect the ability of organisms to produce and maintain shell material, such as aragonite or calcite (calcium carbonate minerals structured from carbonate ions), required by many shelled organism, from mollusks to corals to microscopic organisms at the base of the food chain. Direct biological effects in Alaska further along the food chain have yet to be studied and may vary among organisms. Some of the potentially most significant changes to Alaska that could result from a changing climate are the effects on the terrestrial cryosphere - particularly glaciers and permafrost. Alaskan glaciers are changing at a rapid rate, the primary driver appearing to be temperature. Statewide, glaciers lost 13 cubic miles of ice annually from the 1950s to the 1990s, and that rate doubled in the 2000s. However, like temperature and precipitation, glacier ice loss is not spatially uniform; most glaciers are losing mass, yet some are growing (for example Hubbard Glacier in southeast Alaska). Alaska glaciers with the most rapid loss are those terminating in sea water or lakes. With this increasing rate of melt, the contribution of surplus fresh water entering into the oceans from Alaska's glaciers, as well as those in neighboring British Columbia, Canada, is approximately 20 percent of that contributed by the Greenland Ice Sheet. Permafrost degradation (that is, the thawing of ice-rich soils) is currently (2012) impacting infrastructure and surface-water availability in areas of both discontinuous and continuous ground ice. Over most of the State, the permafrost is warming, with increasing temperatures broadly consistent with increasing air temperatures. On the Arctic coastal plain of Alaska, permafrost temperatures showed some cooling in the 1950s and 1960s but have been followed by a roughly 5°F increase since the 1980s. Many areas in the continuous permafrost zone have seen increases in temperature in the seasonally active layer and a decrease in re-freezing rates. Changes in the discontinuous permafrost zone are initially much more observable due to the resulting thermokarst terrain (land surface formed as ice rich permafrost thaws), most notable in boreal forested areas. Climate warming in Alaska has potentially broad implications for human health and food security, especially in rural areas, as well as increased risk for injury with changing winter ice conditions. Additionally, such warming poses the potential for increasing damage to existing water and sanitation facilities and challenges for development of new facilities, especially in areas underlain by permafrost. Non-infectious and infectious diseases also are becoming an increasing concern. For example, from 1999 to 2006 there was a statistically significant increase in medical claims for insectbite reactions in five of six regions of Alaska, with the largest percentage increase occurring in the most northern areas. The availability and quality of subsistence foods, normally considered to be very healthy, may change due to changing access, changing habitats, and spoilage of meat in food storage cellars. These and other trends and potential outcomes resulting from a changing climate are further described in this report. In addition, we describe new science leadership activities that have been initiated to address and provide guidance toward conducting research aimed at making available information for policy makers and land management agencies to better understand, address, and plan for changes to the local and regional environment. This report cites data in both metric and standard units due to the contributions by numerous authors and the direct reference of their data.

Alaska↗

The North American carbon budget: Past, present, and future

This chapter nicely summarizes and synthesizes the latest scientific information on the North American carbon budget by incorporating terrestrial, anthropogenic, aquatic, and coastal margin CO 2 and CH 4 dynamics. Starting with a historical context, the chapter summarizes current understanding of the magnitudes and trends of carbon stocks and fluxes at the continental scale. It also provides a regional context by stratifying the continent to countries and climate assessment regions and discusses the societal drivers, impacts, and carbon management decisions. Knowledge gaps and research needs are also identified. This chapter is well-written and clearly organized, and provides a broad context beyond individual chapters. Some of the main ways the chapter can be improved include the following: some work is needed on the Key Findings (discussed below); the goals and objectives should be explicitly described; critical content areas missing from the chapter are interannual variability of carbon fluxes and impacts of severe and extended droughts; indicators and feedbacks are missing from Section 2.4; consistent use of units is recommended; numbers with 3-4 significant digits over-state the confidence the reader should have, and all numbers should include uncertainties. And one broader concern to note: This chapter follows the global overview in Chapter 1, where “sinks” are sinks in the cycle perturbed by anthropogenic CO 2 and CH 4 , and the assumption is that globally, the net unperturbed background sinks are zero summed across all reservoirs. Yet in this chapter, “sinks” are net fluxes out of the atmosphere, background + perturbation. For the coastal ocean, inland waters, etc.—where lateral transport is significant—these sources and sinks include background/pre-industrial fluxes that are balanced by fluxes elsewhere. These distinctions must be made clear so that the reader is not given an impression of a greater or lesser sink for anthropogenic CO 2 than is there (e.g., P74, lines 4-6).

Book chapter↗