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USGS2022

Valuing angling on reservoirs using benefit transfer

Economic assessments are rarely applied to inland recreational fisheries for management purposes, especially when compared to fish, habitat, and creel assessments, yet economic assessments can provide critical information for management decisions. We provide a brief overview of economic value, key terminology, and existing economic techniques to address these issues. Benefit transfer, a technique used to measure economic value when an original analysis is not practicable, is conducted by drawing on existing estimates of economic value in similar contexts. We describe an application of benefit transfer to measure the economic value of several recreational fisheries in Nebraska, USA. We examine two approaches to benefit transfer—value transfer and function transfer—which we demonstrate estimate similar economic values for fishing site access but substantially different economic values for catch rate improvements at some reservoirs. We encourage agencies that are responsible for inland recreational fisheries management to consider economic assessment, especially benefit transfer, as a critical tool in the management toolbox.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗

USGS1993

Economics and the national oil and gas assessment: The case of onshore northern Alaska

The National Oil and Gas Assessment of undiscovered recoverable conventional oil and gas resources assigned nearly 36% of the undiscovered U.S. onshore oil resources and 28% of the commercially developable undiscovered oil resources to onshore northern Alaska. Economic screening models were applied to the geologic play assessment to estimate the commercially developable resources. This paper presents the geologic and economic assessment methodology and results; it also focuses on the robustness of estimates of the commercially developable onshore resources to changes in economic assumptions. With the economic assumptions used in the national assessment, about 60% or 6.49 billion bbl of oil of the recoverable undiscovered resources of 10.76 billion bbl of oil assessed in fields larger than 1 million bbl of oil are estimated to be commercially developable. Changes in facilities costs induced the most significant cost-related response in the commercially developable resource estimates. Price increases or cost reductions that reduce the minimum commercially developable field size to 250 million bbl from the base case size of 380 million bbl added 1 billion bbl of oil to the commercially developable resources. If, through facilities sharing or satellite-field development, the minimum commercial field size is reduced to just below 100 million bbl, estimated developable oil woul increase to 9.17 billion bbl of oil or more than 85% of the assessed recoverable oil in onshore plays.

Alaska↗

USGS2023

Banking on strong rural livelihoods and the sustainable use of natural capital in post-conflict Colombia

In post-conflict Colombia, the government has prioritized resettlement of displaced people through development of strong rural livelihoods and the sustainable use of natural capital. In this paper, we considered government proposals for expanding payment for ecosystem services (PES) and sustainable silvopastoral systems, and private-sector investment in habitat banking. We coupled the Integrated Economic-Environmental Model (IEEM) with spatially explicit land use and land cover change and ecosystem services models to assess the potential impacts of these programs through the lens of wealth and sustainable economic development. This innovative workflow integrates dynamic endogenous feedbacks between natural capital, ecosystem services and the economic system, and can be applied to other country contexts. Results show that PES and habitat banking programs are strong investment propositions (Net Present Value of US$4.4 and $4.9 billion, respectively), but only when moving beyond conventional economic analysis to include non-market ecosystem services. Where a portfolio investment approach is taken and PES is implemented with sustainable silvopastoral systems, investment returns would reach US$7.1 billion. This paper provides a detailed evaluation of the benefits of investing in rural livelihoods and enhancing Colombia’s natural capital base, with empirical evidence to inform the spatial targeting of policies to maximize economic, environmental and social outcomes.

Environment, Development, and Sustainability↗

USGS2023

Estimating lentic recreational fisheries catch and effort across the United States

Recreational fisheries represent a socially, ecologically, and economically significant component of global fisheries. The U.S. Inland Creel and Angler Survey Catalog (CreelCat) database includes inland recreational fisheries survey data across the United States to facilitate large-scale analyses. However, because survey methods differ, a statistical method capable of integrating these surveys is necessary to assess patterns and relationships across regions. Here, we developed a hierarchical generalized linear mixed modeling approach to estimate the relationship between daily recreational fisheries catch and effort based on waterbody, socio-economic, and ecological covariates. We applied this approach to CreelCat data on lentic waterbodies and found that recreational fisheries catch and effort were non-linearly related (i.e., catch per unit of effort declined as effort increased), where effort varied regionally and by waterbody area, median county age, and distance to nearest primary road. This modeling approach could be used to inform data-poor regions or waterbodies, make comparisons across spatial scales, and, with the inclusion of socio-economic and ecological factors, inform management techniques in an era of shifting demographics and landscapes.

Fisheries Management and Ecology↗

USGS2026

Quantitative mineral resource assessment of lithium pegmatite deposits in the northern Appalachian orogen, USA

Lithium demand is projected to increase more than 48 times by 2040 due to electric vehicle production and other energy storage needs. Most lithium production is outside of the USA, thereby increasing supply chain vulnerability. The combined end use importance and heightened supply risk of lithium make this lightest metallic element a critical commodity to the USA. To mitigate this supply risk, the US Geological Survey is actively assessing lithium deposits in the USA. Herein, we detail an assessment for lithium-mineralized pegmatites in the US northern Appalachian Mountains. Permissive tracts were generated by cross-referencing tectonic and geologic maps and mineral occurrence data with mappable criteria derived from generalized and region-specific lithium pegmatite ore deposit models; tracts were then ranked as having high, medium, or low permissibility. Available geophysical and geochemical data were found to be of minimal utility for this deposit type at the scale of the assessment. The number of undiscovered deposits were estimated and integrated into probabilistic simulations, which included an expanded and updated global grade and tonnage model of pegmatite-hosted lithium ore. The estimated total amount of undiscovered resources for the northern Appalachian Orogen has a median value of 1,410,000 metric tons of Li 2 O when considering moderate correlation across sub-regions. At a confidence level of 90%, a resource of at least 90,000 metric tons of Li 2 O remains undiscovered, and at a 10% confidence level, a resource of as much as 7,380,000 metric tons Li 2 O remains undiscovered. After applying an up-to-date economic filter to convert median contained lithium to recoverable material, a correlated total of 900,000 metric tons of Li 2 O may be economically extractable, equating to enough Li 2 O to provide the current annual US lithium supply deficit (presently obtained through net imports) for 127 years at 2025 rates of apparent consumption. This period of provision will inevitably shorten with projected increasing consumption rates, emphasizing that further research could be completed to better delineate regions of high lithium resource potential and support exploration and domestic production.

Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Massachusetts, New H↗

USGS2015

NLEAP/GIS approach for identifying and mitigating regional nitrate-nitrogen leaching

Improved simulation-based methodology is needed to help identify broad geographical areas where potential NO 3 -N leaching may be occurring from agriculture and suggest management alternatives that minimize the problem. The Nitrate Leaching and Economic Analysis Package (NLEAP) model was applied to estimate regional NO 3 -N leaching in eastern Colorado. Results show that a combined NLEAP/GIS technology can be used to identify potential NO 3 -N hot spots in shallow alluvial aquifers under irrigated agriculture. The NLEAP NO 3 -N Leached (NL) index provided the most promising single index followed by NO 3 -N Available for Leaching (NAL). The same combined technology also shows promise in identifying Best Management Practice (BMP) methods that help minimize NO 3 -N leaching in vulnerable areas. Future plans call for linkage of the NLEAP/GIS procedures with groundwater modeling to establish a mechanistic analysis of agriculture-aquifer interactions at a regional scale.

Book chapter↗

USGS1969

Compilation of hydrologic data, Green Creek, Brazos River basin, Texas, 1966

In 1950 the U. S. Soil Conservation Service began construction of floodwater-retarding structures in Texas under authorities granted by the Congress. These authorities provide, where economically feasible, that the program be applied to tributary watersheds of 240,000 acres or less. The usual practice has been to control flood runoff from approximately 50 percent of the watershed by a system of floodwater-retarding structures located on headwater subwatersheds of generally less than 10 square miles.

Texas↗

USGS2021

Grand challenges of hydrologic modeling for food-energy-water nexus security in high mountain Asia

Climate-influenced changes in hydrology affect water-food-energy security that may impact up to two billion people downstream of the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region. Changes in water supply affect energy, industry, transportation, and ecosystems (agriculture, fisheries) and as a result, also affect the region's social, environmental, and economic fabrics. Sustaining the highly interconnected food-energy-water nexus (FEWN) will be a fundamental and increasing challenge under a changing climate regime. High variability in topography and distribution of glaciated and snow-covered areas in the HMA region, and scarcity of high resolution ( in-situ ) data make it difficult to model and project climate change impacts on individual watersheds. We lack basic understanding of the spatial and temporal variations in climate, surface impurities in snow and ice such as black carbon and dust that alter surface albedo, and glacier mass balance and dynamics. These knowledge gaps create challenges in predicting where and when the impact of changes in river flow will be the most significant economically and ecologically. In response to these challenges, the United States National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) established the High Mountain Asia Team (HiMAT) in 2016 to conduct research to address knowledge gaps. This paper summarizes some of the advances HiMAT made over the past 5 years, highlights the scientific challenges in improving our understanding of the hydrology of the HMA region, and introduces an integrated assessment framework to assess the impacts of climate changes on the FEWN for the HMA region. The framework, developed under a NASA HMA project, links climate models, hydrology, hydropower, fish biology, and economic analysis. The framework could be applied to develop scientific understanding of spatio-temporal variability in water availability and the resultant downstream impacts on the FEWN to support water resource management under a changing climate regime.

Frontiers in Water↗

USGS2021

Economic effects assessment approaches: US National Parks approach

This chapter discusses the data and methods used by the US National Park Service to estimate the economic effects of National Park visitor spending to local and regional economies. Topics covered include a summary of economic effects analyses, required data for analysis (visitor count data, trip characteristics and spending patterns, and regional economic multipliers) and how these data are combined to estimate visitor spending and economic effects. The chapter includes an applied example for Yosemite National Park and shows how park-level data can be combined to estimate and showcase state- and national-level visitor spending effects.

Book chapter↗

USGS2013

U.S. Geological Survey natural hazards science strategy— Promoting the safety, security, and economic well-being of the Nation

Executive Summary The mission of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in natural hazards is to develop and apply hazard science to help protect the safety, security, and economic well-being of the Nation. The costs and consequences of natural hazards can be enormous, and each year more people and infrastructure are at risk. USGS scientific research—founded on detailed observations and improved understanding of the responsible physical processes—can help to understand and reduce natural hazard risks and to make and effectively communicate reliable statements about hazard characteristics, such as frequency, magnitude, extent, onset, consequences, and where possible, the time of future events. To accomplish its broad hazard mission, the USGS maintains an expert workforce of scientists and technicians in the earth sciences, hydrology, biology, geography, social and behavioral sciences, and other fields, and engages cooperatively with numerous agencies, research institutions, and organizations in the public and private sectors, across the Nation and around the world. The scientific expertise required to accomplish the USGS mission in natural hazards includes a wide range of disciplines that this report refers to, in aggregate, as hazard science. In October 2010, the Natural Hazards Science Strategy Planning Team (H–SSPT) was charged with developing a long-term (10-year) Science Strategy for the USGS mission in natural hazards. This report fulfills that charge, with a document hereinafter referred to as the Strategy, to provide scientific observations, analyses, and research that are critical for the Nation to become more resilient to natural hazards. Science provides the information that decisionmakers need to determine whether risk management activities are worthwhile. Moreover, as the agency with the perspective of geologic time, the USGS is uniquely positioned to extend the collective experience of society to prepare for events outside current memory. The USGS has critical statutory and nonstatutory roles regarding floods, earthquakes, tsunamis, landslides, coastal erosion, volcanic eruptions, wildfires, and magnetic storms—the hazards considered in this plan. There are numerous other hazards of societal importance that are considered either only peripherally or not at all in this Strategy because they are either in another of the USGS strategic science plans (such as drought) or not in the overall mission of the USGS (such as tornados).

Circular↗

USGS2019

An economic evaluation of adaptation pathways in coastal mega cities: An illustration for Los Angeles

Sea level rise and uncertainty in its projections pose a major challenge to flood risk management and adaptation investments in coastal mega cities. This study presents a comparative economic evaluation method for flood adaptation measures, which couples a cost–benefit analysis with the concept of adaptation pathways. Our approach accounts for uncertainty in sea level rise projections by allowing for flexibility of adaptation strategies over time. Our method is illustrated for Los Angeles County which is vulnerable to flooding and sea level rise. Results for different sea level rise scenarios show that applying adaptation pathways can result in higher economic efficiency (up to 10%) than individual adaptation strategies, despite the loss of efficiency of the initial strategy. However, we identified ‘investment tipping points’ after which a transition could decrease the economic efficiencies of a pathway significantly. Overall, we recommend that studies evaluating adaptation strategies should integrate cost–benefit analysis frameworks with adaptation pathways since this allows for better informing decision makers about the robustness and economic desirability of their investment choices.

California↗

USGS2014

Simulating future residential property losses from wildfire in Flathead County, Montana

Wildfire damages to private residences in the United States and elsewhere have increased as a result of expansion of the wildland-urban interface (WUI) and other factors. Understanding this unwelcome trend requires analytical frameworks that simulate how various interacting social, economic, and biophysical factors influence those damages. A methodological framework is developed for simulating expected residential property losses from wildfire [E(RLW)], which is a probabilistic monetary measure of wildfire risk to residential properties in the WUI. E(RLW) is simulated for Flathead County, Montana for five, 10-year subperiods covering the period 2010-2059, under various assumptions about future climate change, economic growth, land use policy, and forest management. Results show statistically significant increases in the spatial extent of WUI properties, the number of residential structures at risk from wildfire, and E(RLW) over the 50-year evaluation period for both the county and smaller subareas (i.e., neighborhoods and parcels). The E(RLW) simulation framework presented here advances the field of wildfire risk assessment by providing a finer-scale tool that incorporates a set of dynamic, interacting processes. The framework can be applied using other scenarios for climate change, economic growth, land use policy, and forest management, and in other areas.

Montana↗

USGS2015

Social and Economic Analysis Branch: integrating policy, social, economic, and natural science

The Fort Collins Science Center's Social and Economic Analysis Branch provides unique capabilities in the U.S. Geological Survey by leading projects that integrate social, behavioral, economic, and natural science in the context of human–natural resource interactions. Our research provides scientific understanding and support for the management and conservation of our natural resources in support of multiple agency missions. We focus on meeting the scientific needs of the Department of the Interior natural resource management bureaus in addition to fostering partnerships with other Federal and State managers to protect, restore, and enhance our environment. The Social and Economic Analysis Branch has an interdisciplinary group of scientists whose primary functions are to conduct both theoretical and applied social science research, provide technical assistance, and offer training to support the development of skills in natural resource management activities. Management and research issues associated with human-resource interactions typically occur in a unique context and require knowledge of both natural and social sciences, along with the skill to integrate multiple science disciplines. In response to these challenging contexts, Social and Economic Analysis Branch researchers apply a wide variety of social science concepts and methods which complement our rangeland/agricultural, wildlife, ecology, and biology capabilities. The goal of the Social and Economic Analysis Branch's research is to enhance natural-resource management, agency functions, policies, and decisionmaking.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2018

Quantification of the indirect use value of functional group diversity based on the ecological role of species in the ecosystem

An important issue in biodiversity valuation is gaining a better understanding of how biodiversity conservation affects economic activities and human welfare. Quantifying the economic benefits of biodiversity for human well-being is not straightforward. Here, we expand the ecosystem service cascade by (i) attributing a methodology to the different steps of the cascade to assess the effects of changes in functional group diversity on economic activities; (ii) including multiple attributes for defining functional diversity and (iii) integrating a dynamic ecological model simulating complex interactions and feedbacks between species with an economic model assessing the effects of changes in functional group diversity for gross revenues. The stepwise methodological framework integrates a production function approach with a market price-based approach in order to investigate the indirect use value of functional group diversity based on the ecological role of species in the ecosystem. The methodology is applied to estimate the relationship between the gross economic value of Chinook salmon (Pacific Northwest, United States) and the diversity of freshwater macroinvertebrates. The results of our analysis emphasize the importance of biological diversity for sustaining ecosystem goods and services. The analysis provides a tractable framework for quantitatively exploring the economic consequences of changes in functional group diversity.

Ecological Economics↗

USGS2015

Economic assessment of the use value of geospatial information

Geospatial data inform decision makers. An economic model that involves application of spatial and temporal scientific, technical, and economic data in decision making is described. The value of information (VOI) contained in geospatial data is the difference between the net benefits (in present value terms) of a decision with and without the information. A range of technologies is used to collect and distribute geospatial data. These technical activities are linked to examples that show how the data can be applied in decision making, which is a cultural activity. The economic model for assessing the VOI in geospatial data for decision making is applied to three examples: (1) a retrospective model about environmental regulation of agrochemicals; (2) a prospective model about the impact and mitigation of earthquakes in urban areas; and (3) a prospective model about developing private–public geospatial information for an ecosystem services market. Each example demonstrates the potential value of geospatial information in a decision with uncertain information.

ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information↗

USGS1986

Application of seismic-refraction techniques to hydrologic studies

During the past 30 years, seismic-refraction methods have been used extensively in petroleum, mineral, and engineering investigations, and to some extent for hydrologic applications. Recent advances in equipment, sound sources, and computer interpretation techniques make seismic refraction a highly effective and economical means of obtaining subsurface data in hydrologic studies. Aquifers that can be defined by one or more high seismic-velocity surfaces, such as (1) alluvial or glacial deposits in consolidated rock valleys, (2) limestone or sandstone underlain by metamorphic or igneous rock, or (3) saturated unconsolidated deposits overlain by unsaturated unconsolidated deposits, are ideally suited for applying seismic-refraction methods. These methods allow the economical collection of subsurface data, provide the basis for more efficient collection of data by test drilling or aquifer tests, and result in improved hydrologic studies. This manual briefly reviews the basics of seismic-refraction theory and principles. It emphasizes the use of this technique in hydrologic investigations and describes the planning, equipment, field procedures, and intrepretation techniques needed for this type of study. Examples of the use of seismic-refraction techniques in a wide variety of hydrologic studies are presented.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2013

Economic impacts of the SAFRR tsunami scenario in California: Chapter H in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

This study evaluates the hypothetical economic impacts of the SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) tsunami scenario to the California economy. The SAFRR scenario simulates a tsunami generated by a hypothetical magnitude 9.1 earthquake that occurs offshore of the Alaska Peninsula (Kirby and others, 2013). Economic impacts are measured by the estimated reduction in California’s gross domestic product (GDP), the standard economic measure of the total value of goods and services produced. Economic impacts are derived from the physical damages from the tsunami as described by Porter and others (2013). The principal physical damages that result in disruption of the California economy are (1) about $100 million in damages to the twin Ports of Los Angeles (POLA) and Long Beach (POLB), (2) about $700 million in damages to marinas, and (3) about $2.5 billion in damages to buildings and contents (properties) in the tsunami inundation zone on the California coast. The study of economic impacts does not include the impacts from damages to roads, bridges, railroads, and agricultural production or fires in fuel storage facilities because these damages will be minimal with respect to the California economy. The economic impacts of damage to other California ports are not included in this study because detailed evaluation of the physical damage to these ports was not available in time for this report. The analysis of economic impacts is accomplished in several steps. First, estimates are made for the direct economic impacts that result in immediate business interruption losses in individual sectors of the economy due to physical damage to facilities or to disruption of the flow of production units (commodities necessary for production). Second, the total economic impacts (consisting of both direct and indirect effects) are measured by including the general equilibrium (essentially quantity and price multiplier effects) of lost production in other sectors by ripple effects upstream and downstream along the supply chain. An appropriate measure of the economic impacts on the California economy for the SAFRR tsunami scenario is the reduction in GDP. The economic impacts are first calculated without resilience, the ability of the economy to adjust to disruptions in ways that mute potential negative impacts. There are many types of resilience, including using existing inventories of materials, using unused capacity, conserving inputs, substituting for disrupted supplies, recapturing production after the disruption is restored, and many others. A method for estimating resilience, identified in the port system and sectors affected by property damages, is applied to indicate potential reductions of direct and total economic impacts. In this SAFRR tsunami scenario analysis of economic impacts to California, we implement established techniques used to model the economic impacts for two previous U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scenarios: the southern California Shakeout earthquake (Rose and others, 2011) and the California ARkStorm severe winter storm (Sue Wing and others, written commun., 2013). For the SAFRR tsunami scenario, we reviewed the relevant studies that assess economic impacts from previous tsunami events affecting California and elsewhere and estimate the economic impacts of potential tsunami and other threats to POLA and POLB. To our knowledge, assessment of impacts to the California economy from distant source tsunamis does not exist. Previous tsunamis, including those from the 1960 Chile earthquake, the 1964 Alaska earthquake, the 2008 Chile earthquake and the 2011 Japan earthquake, had only relatively minor or very localized severe damage (such as that in Crescent City in 1964), and no studies of the economic impacts were completed. A rare study of the economic impacts of a tsunami event has recently been produced for the Tohoku earthquake and tsunami (Kajitani and others, 2013). Quarterly declines in Japan’s GDP are observed to peak at ‒1.63 percent in the second quarter after the event and stagnate for the rest of the year. The majority of the economic impacts are attributed to the tsunami rather than the earthquake. The hardest hit sectors are identified as agriculture, fisheries, manufacturing, retail, and tourism. Other relevant studies have focused on the economic impacts of threats that close POLA and POLB. We find one analysis of a potential tsunami scenario affecting the California economy through disruption of port operations. Borrero and others (2005) estimated economic impacts to the southern California economy of $7 to $40 billion from a locally generated tsunami that closes POLA and POLB for as much as 1 year. There have also been several studies of the economic impacts of non-tsunami events affecting POLA and POLB. Analyses of an 11-day labor lockout produced a range of estimated national impacts of as much as $1.94 billion/day (Park and others 2008, Martin Associates 2001). Examination of a potential terrorist attack that closes the San Pedro port for 1 month yielded a $29 billion impact to the California economy (Park, 2008). These studies have reinforced the importance of recognizing economic resilience in economic impact analyses. Hall (2004) criticized the upper-end estimate of national economic impacts from the labor lockout based on model shortcomings that neglected short-run substitution behavior and fixed the long-run economic behaviors. Following the 2011 Japanese tsunami, resilience was observed in the forms of rapid recovery of manufacturing sectors, energy conservation, and insurance (Kajitani and others, 2013).

California↗

USGS2022

Global tellurium supply potential from electrolytic copper refining

The transition towards renewable energy requires increasing quantities of nonfuel mineral commodities, including tellurium used in certain photovoltaics. While demand for tellurium may increase markedly, the potential to increase tellurium supply is not well-understood. In this analysis, we estimate the quantity of tellurium contained in anode slimes generated by electrolytic copper refining by country between 1986 and 2018, including uncertainties. For 2018, the results indicate that 1930 (1500-2700, 95% confidence interval) metric tons of tellurium were contained in anode slimes globally. This is nearly quadruple the reported tellurium production for that year. China has the greatest potential to increase tellurium supplies. However, most of the tellurium potentially recoverable by Chinese refineries appears to come from copper mined elsewhere. Further research into the business decisions associated with tellurium recovery may help translate the physical availability of tellurium into economic availability. The methodology presented here can be applied to other byproduct elements.

Resources, Conservation & Recycling↗