Search USGS⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search USGS

Results for “American Journal of Climate Change”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources
USGS2007

Molecular ecology of the big brown bat (Eptesicus fuscus): Genetic and natural history variation in a hybrid zone

Several geographically distinct mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) lineages of the big brown bat (Eptesicus fuscus) have been documented in North America. Individuals from 2 of these lineages, an eastern and a western form, co-occur within maternity colonies in Colorado. The discovery of 2 divergent mtDNA lineages in sympatry prompted a set of questions regarding possible biological differences between haplotypes. We captured big brown bats at maternity roosts in Colorado and recorded data on body size, pelage color, litter size, roosting and overwintering behaviors, and local distributions. Wing biopsies were collected for genetic analysis. The ND2 region of the mtDNA molecule was used to determine lineage of the bats. In addition, nuclear DNA (nDNA) intron 1 of the ??-globin gene was used to determine if mtDNA lineages are hybridizing. Eastern and western mtDNA lineages differed by 10.3% sequence divergence and examination of genetic data suggests recent population expansion for both lineages. Differences in distribution occur along the Colorado Front Range, with an increasing proportion of western haplotypes farther south. Results from nDNA analyses demonstrated hybridization between the 2 lineages. Additionally, no outstanding distinctiveness was found between the mtDNA lineages in natural history characters examined. We speculate that historical climate changes separated this species into isolated eastern and western populations, and that secondary contact with subsequent interbreeding was facilitated by European settlement. ?? 2007 American Society of Mammalogists.

Journal of Mammalogy↗
USGS2010

Interactions between walleyes and smallmouth bass in a Missouri River reservoir with consideration of the influence of temperature and prey

Walleyes Sander vitreus are the most popular fish among South Dakota anglers, but smallmouth bass Micropterus dolomieu were introduced to provide new angling opportunities. Some walleye anglers have reported reductions in the quality of walleye fisheries since the introduction of smallmouth bass and attribute this to the consumption of young walleyes by smallmouth bass and competition for shared prey resources. We quantified the diets of walleyes and smallmouth bass in the lower reaches of Lake Sharpe (a Missouri River reservoir), calculated the diet overlap between the two predators, and determined whether they partitioned shared prey based on size. We also quantified walleye diets in the upper reach of the reservoir, which has a different prey base and allowed us to compare the growth rates of walleyes within Lake Sharpe. Age-0 gizzard shad Dorosoma cepedianum composed a substantial proportion of the diets of both predators, regardless of location, for most of the growing season; the patterns in shad vulnerability appeared to drive the observed patterns in diet overlap. Smallmouth bass appeared to consume a smaller size range of gizzard shad than did walleyes, which consumed a wide range. Smallmouth bass consumed Sander spp. in some months, but in very low quantities. Given that global climate change is expected to alter the population and community dynamics in Great Plains reservoirs, we also used a bioenergetics approach to predict the potential effects of limiting prey availability (specifically, the absence of gizzard shad and rainbow smelt Osmerus mordax ) and increased water temperatures (as projected from global climate change models) on walleye and smallmouth bass growth. The models indicated that the absence of rainbow smelt from the diets of walleyes in upper Lake Sharpe would reduce growth but that the absence of gizzard shad would have a more marked negative effect on both predators at both locations. The models also indicated that higher water temperatures would have an even greater negative influence on walleye growth; however, smallmouth bass growth was predicted to increase with higher temperatures. Fisheries managers should consider strategies to enhance the prey base or mitigate the effects of increased water temperatures that may occur in the future as a result of global climate change. Such proactive actions may alleviate potential future competition between walleyes and smallmouth bass resulting from changes in the fish community.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗
USGS2015

Effects of climate and land cover on hydrology in the southeastern U.S.: Potential impacts on watershed planning

The hydrologic response to statistically downscaled general circulation model simulations of daily surface climate and land cover through 2099 was assessed for the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin located in the southeastern United States. Projections of climate, urbanization, vegetation, and surface-depression storage capacity were used as inputs to the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System to simulate projected impacts on hydrologic response. Surface runoff substantially increased when land cover change was applied. However, once the surface depression storage was added to mitigate the land cover change and increases of surface runoff (due to urbanization), the groundwater flow component then increased. For hydrologic studies that include projections of land cover change (urbanization in particular), any analysis of runoff beyond the change in total runoff should include effects of stormwater management practices as these features affect flow timing and magnitude and may be useful in mitigating land cover change impacts on streamflow. Potential changes in water availability and how biota may respond to changes in flow regime in response to climate and land cover change may prove challenging for managers attempting to balance the needs of future development and the environment. However, these models are still useful for assessing the relative impacts of climate and land cover change and for evaluating tradeoffs when managing to mitigate different stressors.

Alabama, Florida, Georgia↗
USGS2013

Air - water temperature relationships in the trout streams of southeastern Minnesota’s carbonate - sandstone landscape

Carbonate-sandstone geology in southeastern Minnesota creates a heterogeneous landscape of springs, seeps, and sinkholes that supply groundwater into streams. Air temperatures are effective predictors of water temperature in surface-water dominated streams. However, no published work investigates the relationship between air and water temperatures in groundwater-fed streams (GWFS) across watersheds. We used simple linear regressions to examine weekly air-water temperature relationships for 40 GWFS in southeastern Minnesota. A 40-stream, composite linear regression model has a slope of 0.38, an intercept of 6.63, and R 2 of 0.83. The regression models for GWFS have lower slopes and higher intercepts in comparison to surface-water dominated streams. Regression models for streams with high R 2 values offer promise for use as predictive tools for future climate conditions. Climate change is expected to alter the thermal regime of groundwater-fed systems, but will do so at a slower rate than surface-water dominated systems. A regression model of intercept vs . slope can be used to identify streams for which water temperatures are more meteorologically than groundwater controlled, and thus more vulnerable to climate change. Such relationships can be used to guide restoration vs . management strategies to protect trout streams.

Minnesota↗
USGS2006

An episode of rapid bedrock channel incision during the last glacial cycle, measured with 10Be

We use 10Be to infer when, how fast, and why the Susquehanna River incised through bedrock along the U.S. Atlantic seaboard, one of the world's most prominent and ancient passive margins. Although the rate at which large rivers incise rock is a fundamental control on the development of landscapes, relatively few studies have directly measured how quickly such incision occurs either in tectonically active environments or along passive margins. Exposure ages of fluvially carve d, bedrock strath terraces, preserved along the lower Susquehanna River, demonstrate that even along a passive margin, large rivers are capable of incising through rock for short periods of time at rates approaching those recorded in tectonically active regions, such as the Himalayas. Over eighty samples, collected along and between three prominent levels of strath terraces within Holtwood Gorge, indicate that the Susquehanna River incised more than 10 meters into the Appalachian Piedmont during the last glacial cycle. Beginning ???36 ka, incision rates increased dramatically, and remained elevated until ???14 ka. The northern half of the Susquehanna basin was glaciated during the late Wisconsinan; however, similar rates and timing of incision occurred in the unglaciated Potomac River basin immediately to the south. The concurrence of incision periods on both rivers suggests that glaciation and associated meltwater were not the primary drivers of incision. Instead, it appears that changing climatic conditions during the late Pleistocene promoted an increase in the frequency and magnitude of flood events capable of exceeding thresholds for rock detachment and bedrock erosion, thus enabling a short-lived episode of rapid incision into rock. Although this study has constraine d the timing and rate of bedrock incision along the largest river draining the Atlantic passive margin, the dates alone cannot explain fully why, or by what processes, this incision occurred. However, cosmogenic dating offers compelling evidence that episodes of rapid incision into bedrock are tied to glacial cycles and changes in global climate. These results, and the methods we employ, provide valuable insights into the nature of bedrock channel incision, not only along the Susquehanna River and passive margins, but also across a wide range of settings around the globe. Because river incision into bedrock transmits the effects of changing climate and tectonics through fluvial networks to hillslopes, comprehending when, where, and why rivers incise has important implications for the evolution of landscapes.

American Journal of Science↗
USGS2020

Changes in climate and land cover affect seasonal streamflow forecasts in the Rio Grande headwaters

Seasonal streamflow forecast bias, changes in climate, snowpack, and land cover, and the effects of these changes on relations between basin‐wide snowpack, SNOw TELemetry (SNOTEL) station snowpack, and seasonal streamflow were evaluated in the headwaters of the Rio Grande, Colorado. Results indicate that shifts in the seasonality of precipitation and changing climatology are consistent with periods of overprediction and underprediction in streamflow forecasts. Multiple linear regression of SNOTEL data, postcedent precipitation, and land‐cover changes explained 2%–18% more variability in streamflow prediction than using SNOTEL station data alone. Simulated basin‐wide snowpack from a physically based model had significant negative trends in snow water equivalent (−4.33 mm/yr) and snow‐covered area (−0.05%/yr) during the melt period April–June. Simulated streamflow from a precipitation‐runoff model increased an average 5% when the effects of bark beetle‐induced tree mortality were compared to a baseline simulation with static vegetation. The effects of a 2013 wildfire increased simulated seasonal streamflow an average 35% for 1–4 years postfire. The combined effects of climate and land‐cover changes on snowpack‐streamflow relations highlight the difficulty in seasonal streamflow forecasting, which has important implications for water‐resource management.

Colorado↗
USGS2014

Quantifying the effectiveness of conservation measures to control the spread of anthropogenic hybridization in stream salmonids: A climate adaptation case study

Quantifying the effectiveness of management actions to mitigate the effects of changing climatic conditions (i.e., climate adaptation) can be difficult, yet critical for conservation. We used population genetic data from 1984 to 2011 to assess the degree to which ambient climatic conditions and targeted suppression of sources of nonnative Rainbow Trout Oncorhynchus mykiss have influenced the spread of introgressive hybridization in native populations of Westslope Cutthroat Trout O. clarkii lewisi . We found rapid expansion in the spatial distribution and proportion of nonnative genetic admixture in hybridized populations from 1984 to 2004, but minimal change since 2004. The spread of hybridization was negatively correlated with the number of streamflow events in May that exceeded the 75th percentile of historic flows ( r = −0.98) and positively correlated with August stream temperatures ( r = 0.89). Concomitantly, suppression data showed a 60% decline in catch per unit effort for fish with a high proportion of Rainbow Trout admixture, rendering some uncertainty as to the relative strength of factors controlling the spread of hybridization. Our results illustrate the importance of initiating management actions to mitigate the potential effects of climate change, even where data describing the effectiveness of such actions are initially limited but the risks are severe.

Montana↗
USGS2023

Seasonal abundance and habitat associations of American Kestrels on the Southern High Plains of Texas

American Kestrel ( Falco sparverius ) populations are generally declining across the species' North American distribution but the population in the Southern High Plains region currently appears to be stable. Historical evidence suggests the region formerly had a low abundance of kestrels, and that their current numbers are due to landscape changes associated with European settlement. We conducted monthly surveys for American Kestrels across 2 yr to estimate seasonal densities and identify land cover associations in the Southern High Plains of Texas. We found an overall estimated density of 0.99 birds/km 2 (95% CI = 0.406, 1.582) across the 2-yr period, with seasonal estimated densities highest in autumn and winter (0.92–2.53/ km 2 ), and lowest in spring (0.49–0.67/km 2 ). Whereas other studies have found that temperature influenced detection of wintering kestrels, we found an interaction of drought conditions and snow most strongly influenced the number of kestrels in our study area. Kestrels largely used land cover types in proportion to availability but there was some evidence of seasonal shifts. Generally, they tended to avoid cotton fields and sometimes selected for areas with woodlots, abandoned or occupied houses, and barns, all of which likely provided nesting and roosting opportunities. Our study provides the first contemporary assessment of seasonal abundance and habitat associations of American Kestrels in the Southern High Plains, where their presence and abundance has been unintentionally facilitated by landscape changes following settlement. We provide a baseline for population monitoring and studies assessing response to additional landscape changes (e.g., development of wind energy facilities) and a changing climate.

Journal of Raptor Research↗
USGS2009

Detection and attribution of streamflow timing changes to climate change in the Western United States

This article applies formal detection and attribution techniques to investigate the nature of observed shifts in the timing of streamflow in the western United States. Previous studies have shown that the snow hydrology of the western United States has changed in the second half of the twentieth century. Such changes manifest themselves in the form of more rain and less snow, in reductions in the snow water contents, and in earlier snowmelt and associated advances in streamflow "center" timing (the day in the "water-year" on average when half the water-year flow at a point has passed). However, with one exception over a more limited domain, no other study has attempted to formally attribute these changes to anthropogenic increases of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Using the observations together with a set of global climate model simulations and a hydrologic model (applied to three major hydrological regions of the western United States_the California region, the upper Colorado River basin, and the Columbia River basin), it is found that the observed trends toward earlier "center" timing of snowmelt-driven streamflows in the western United States since 1950 are detectably different from natural variability (significant at the p < 0.05 level). Furthermore, the nonnatural parts of these changes can be attributed confidently to climate changes induced by anthropogenic greenhouse gases, aerosols, ozone, and land use. The signal from the Columbia dominates the analysis, and it is the only basin that showed a detectable signal when the analysis was performed on individual basins. It should be noted that although climate change is an important signal, other climatic processes have also contributed to the hydrologic variability of large basins in the western United States. ?? 2009 American Meteorological Society.

Journal of Climate↗
USGS1994

Historical decline and current status of coho salmon in California

The southernmost populations of coho salmon Oncorhynchus kisutch occur in California where native coho stocks have declined or disappeared from all streams in which they were historically recorded. Coho salmon previously occurred in as many as 582 streams, from the Smith River near the Oregon border to the San Lorenzo River on the central coast. Information on the recent presence or absence of coho salmon was available for only 248 (43%) of those streams. Of these 248 streams, 54% still contained coho salmon and 46% did not. The farther south a stream is located, the more likely it is to have lost its coho salmon population. We estimate that the total number of adult coho salmon entering California streams in 1987-1991 averaged around 31,000 fish per year, with hatchery populations making up 57% of this total. Thus, about 13,000 nonhatchery coho salmon have been spawning in California streams each year since 1987, an estimate that includes naturalized stocks containing about 9,000 fish of recent hatchery ancestry. There are now probably less than 5,000 native coho salmon (with no known hatchery ancestry) spawning in California each year, many of them in populations of less than 100 individuals. Coho populations today are probably less than 6% of what they were in the 1940s, and there has been at least a 70% decline since the 1960s. There is every reason to believe that California coho populations, including hatchery stocks, will continue to decline. The reasons for the decline of coho salmon in California include: stream alterations brought about by poor land-use practices (especially those related to logging and urbanization) and by the effects of periodic floods and drought, the breakdown of genetic integrity of native stocks, introduced diseases, overharvest, and climatic change. We believe, that ,coho salmon in California qualify for listing as a threatened species under state law, and certain populations may qualify for listing as threatened or endangered under federal law.

California↗
USGS2012

Interactive coupling of a lake thermal model with a regional climate model

A one‐dimensional model of lake temperature, evaporation, and ice has been coupled in an interactive mode with the climate version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research/Pennsylvania State University regional (mesoscale) atmospheric model (MM4). The coupled MM4‐lake model makes possible high‐resolution simulations of climate in the proximity of large water bodies. Atmospheric variables required as input for the lake model are supplied by MM4 and simulated values of lake temperature, evaporation, and ice cover axe supplied to MM4 by the lake model. We have tested the coupled model system with a 60‐day, summertime simulation at Pyramid Lake, Nevada, and with a 10‐day, wintertime simulation of the North American Great Lakes and vicinity. Both simulations were conducted at a 60‐km resolution. Results from these tests indicate the coupled model system produces realistic simulations of lake temperature, evaporation, and ice cover and that the coupled system is applicable to simulations of regional climate change.

Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres↗
USGS2007

Climate change: Potential impacts and interactions in wetlands of the United States

Wetlands exist in a transition zone between aquatic and terrestrial environments which can be altered by subtle changes in hydrology. Twentieth century climate records show that the United States is generally experiencing a trend towards a wetter, warmer climate; some climate models suggest that his trend will continue and possibly intensify over the next 100 years. Wetlands that are most likely to be affected by these and other potential changes (e.g., sea-level rise) associated with atmospheric carbon enrichment include permafrost wetlands, coastal and estuarine wetlands, peatlands, alpine wetlands, and prairie pothote wetlands. Potential impacts range from changes in community structure to changes in ecological function, and from extirpation to enhancement. Wetlands (particularly boreal peatlands) play an important role in the global carbon cycle, generally sequestering carbon in the form of biomass, methane, dissolved organic material and organic sediment. Wetlands that are drained or partially dried can become a net source of methane and carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, serving as a positive biotic feedback to global warming. Policy options for minimizing the adverse impacts of climate change on wetland ecosystems include the reduction of current anthropogenic stresses, allowing for inland migration of coastal wetlands as sea-level rises, active management to preserve wetland hydrology, and a wide range of other management and restoration options.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗
USGS2012

Short seed longevity, variable germination conditions, and infrequent establishment events provide a narrow window for Yucca brevifolia (Agavaceae) recruitment

PREMISE OF THE STUDY: The future of long-lived stand-forming desert plants such as Yucca brevifolia (Joshua tree) has come into question in light of climate variation and landscape-scale disturbances such as wildfire. Understanding plant establishment dynamics is important for mitigating the impacts of disturbances and promoting revegetation. • METHODS: We placed Y. brevifolia seeds in shallow caches and manipulated granivore access, nurse shrub effects, and the season of cache placement to determine conditions for seed germination and seedling establishment. • KEY RESULTS: Greatest seedling emergence occurred during spring and summer, when increased soil moisture was accompanied by warm soil temperatures. Late winter-spring emergence for cached seeds was enhanced beneath shrub canopies, but seedling survival declined beneath shrubs as temperatures increased in spring. Germinability of seed remaining in the soil was reduced from 50-68% after 12 mo residence time in soil and declined to <3% after 40 mo. Following dispersal from parent plants, seeds are either removed by granivores or lose germinability, imposing substantial losses of potential germinants. • CONCLUSIONS: Specific germination and establishment requirements impose stringent limits on recruitment rates for Y. brevifolia. Coupled with infrequent seed availability, the return rates to prefire densities and demographic structure may require decades to centuries, especially in light of potential changes to regional desert climate in combination with the potential for fire recurrence. Demographic patterns are predicted to vary spatially in response to environmental variability that limits recruitment and may already be apparent among extant populations.

American Journal of Botany↗
USGS2024

Adapting standardized trout monitoring to a changing climate for the upper Yellowstone River, Montana, USA

Objective Long‐term standardized monitoring programs are fundamental to assessing how fish populations respond to anthropogenic stressors. Standardized monitoring programs may need to adopt new methods to adapt to rapid environmental changes that are associated with a changing climate. In the upper Yellowstone River, Montana, biologists have used a standardized, mark–recapture monitoring protocol to annually estimate the abundance of trout since 1978 to assess population status and trends. However, within the past two decades, climate change has caused changes in discharge timing that have prevented standardized monitoring from occurring annually. Methods We investigated the feasibility of using two analytical methods, N‐mixture models and mean capture probability, for estimating the abundance of three trout species in the upper Yellowstone River using the historical long‐term data set; these methods allow abundance to be estimated when a mark–recapture estimate cannot be obtained due to hydrologic conditions. Result When compared with abundance estimates from mark–recapture methods, N‐mixture models most often resulted in negatively biased abundance estimates, whereas mean capture probability analyses resulted in positively biased abundance estimates. Additionally, N‐mixture models produced negatively biased estimates when tested against true abundance values from simulated data sets. The bias in the N‐mixture model estimates was caused by poor model fit and variation in capture probability. The bias in the mean capture probability estimates was caused by heterogeneity in capture probability, likely caused by variable environmental conditions, which were not accounted for in the models. Conclusion N‐mixture models and mean capture probability are not viable alternatives for estimating abundance in the upper Yellowstone River. Thus, exploring additional adaptations to sampling methodologies and analytical approaches, including models that require individually marked fish, will be valuable for this system. Climate change will undoubtedly necessitate changes to standardized sampling methods throughout the world; thus, developing alternative sampling and analytical methods will be important for maintaining the utility of long‐term data sets.

Montana↗
USGS2017

A hydrologic drying bias in water-resource impact analyses of anthropogenic climate change

For water-resource planning, sensitivity of freshwater availability to anthropogenic climate change (ACC) often is analyzed with “offline” hydrologic models that use precipitation and potential evapotranspiration ( E p ) as inputs. Because E p is not a climate-model output, an intermediary model of E p must be introduced to connect the climate model to the hydrologic model. Several E p methods are used. The suitability of each can be assessed by noting a credible E p method for offline analyses should be able to reproduce climate models’ ACC-driven changes in actual evapotranspiration in regions and seasons of negligible water stress ( E w ). We quantified this ability for seven commonly used E p methods and for a simple proportionality with available energy (“energy-only” method). With the exception of the energy-only method, all methods tend to overestimate substantially the increase in E p associated with ACC. In an offline hydrologic model, the E p -change biases produce excessive increases in actual evapotranspiration ( E ), whether the system experiences water stress or not, and thence strong negative biases in runoff change, as compared to hydrologic fluxes in the driving climate models. The runoff biases are comparable in magnitude to the ACC-induced runoff changes themselves. These results suggest future hydrologic drying (wetting) trends likely are being systematically and substantially overestimated (underestimated) in many water-resource impact analyses.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗
USGS2011

Equilibrium shoreline response of a high wave energy beach

Four years of beach elevation surveys at Ocean Beach, San Francisco, California, are used to extend an existing equilibrium shoreline change model, previously calibrated with fine sand and moderate energy waves, to medium sand and higher-energy waves. The shoreline, characterized as the cross-shore location of the mean high water contour, varied seasonally by between 30 and 60 m, depending on the alongshore location. The equilibrium shoreline change model relates the rate of horizontal shoreline displacement to the hourly wave energy E and the wave energy disequilibrium, the difference between E and the equilibrium wave energy that would cause no change in the present shoreline location. Values for the model shoreline response coefficients are tuned to fit the observations in 500 m alongshore segments and averaged over segments where the model has good skill and the estimated effects of neglected alongshore sediment transport are relatively small. Using these representative response coefficients for 0.3 mm sand from Ocean Beach and driving the model with much lower-energy winter waves observed at San Onofre Beach (also 0.3 mm sand) in southern California, qualitatively reproduces the small seasonal shoreline fluctuations at San Onofre. This consistency suggests that the shoreline model response coefficients depend on grain size and may be constant, and thus transportable, between sites with similar grain size and different wave climates. The calibrated model response coefficients predict that for equal fluctuations in wave energy, changes in shoreline location on a medium-grained (0.3 mm) beach are much smaller than on a previously studied fine-grained (0.2 mm) beach. Copyright ?? 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans↗
USGS2007

Potential effects of climate change on surface-water quality in North America

Data from long-term ecosystem monitoring and research stations in North America and results of simulations made with interpretive models indicate that changes in climate (precipitation and temperature) can have a significant effect on the quality of surface waters. Changes in water quality during storms, snowmelt, and periods of elevated air temperature or drought can cause conditions that exceed thresholds of ecosystem tolerance and, thus, lead to water-quality degradation. If warming and changes in available moisture occur, water-quality changes will likely first occur during episodes of climate-induced stress, and in ecosystems where the factors controlling water quality are sensitive to climate variability. Continued climate stress would increase the frequency with which ecosystem thresholds are exceeded and thus lead to chronic water-quality changes. Management strategies in a warmer climate will therefore be needed that are based on local ecological thresholds rather than annual median condition. Changes in land use alter biological, physical, and chemical processes in watersheds and thus significantly alter the quality of adjacent surface waters; these direct human-caused changes complicate the interpretation of water-quality changes resulting from changes in climate, and can be both mitigated and exacerbated by climate change. A rigorous strategy for integrated, long-term monitoring of the ecological and human factors that control water quality is necessary to differentiate between actual and perceived climate effects, and to track the effectiveness of our environmental policies.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗
USGS2023

Long-term biocrust responses to wildfires in Washington, USA

Premise Dryland ecosystems in the western United States are affected by invasive species, wildfires, livestock grazing, and climate change in ways that are difficult to distinguish. Biocrusts perform important ecological roles in these systems and are sensitive to all of these pressures. Methods We revisited a Washington, USA, site sampled for biocrusts in 1999 to focus on effects of exotic annual grass invasion and wildfires in the absence of livestock grazing. We examined changes between 1999 and 2020 using a Bayesian directed acyclic graph (DAG) to interpret direct and indirect causal impacts of wildfire on perennial bunchgrasses, exotic annual grasses, and biocrusts. Results Between 1999 and 2020, exotic annual grass cover increased in all plots and in unburned plots by 16% and 18%, respectively, bunchgrass cover decreased by 21% and 25%, and biocrust cover decreased by 8.9% and 9.8%. Our DAG suggested that decreases in bunchgrass increased exotic annual grass, which reduced biocrust cover. Wildfires did not directly influence changes in bunchgrass, exotic annual grass, or biocrust cover. Areas dominated by exotic annual grass had less abundant and diverse biocrusts than areas with less exotic annual grass. Conclusions Biocrust community changes were more strongly related to increasing exotic annual grasses than to wildfires. Changes may relate to other soil disturbances or broad-scale changes in climate or air quality. The minimal influence of wildfire on exotic annual grass and biocrusts suggests that apparent negative impacts of wildfire at other sites may be due to exacerbation by livestock grazing or other surface disturbance.

American Journal of Botany↗