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USGS1997

Detecting changes in the spatial distribution of nitrate contamination in ground water

Many studies of ground water pollution in general and nitrate contamination in particular have often relied on a one-time investigation, tracking of individual wells, or aggregate summaries. Studies of changes in spatial distribution of contaminants over time are lacking. This paper presents a method to compare spatial distributions for possible changes over time. The large-scale spatial distribution at a given time can be considered as a surface over the area (a trend surface). The changes in spatial distribution from period to period can be revealed by the differences in the shape and/or height of surfaces. If such a surface is described by a polynomial function, changes in surfaces can be detected by testing statistically for differences in their corresponding polynomial functions. This method was applied to nitrate concentration in a population of wells in an agricultural drainage basin in Iowa, sampled in three different years. For the period of 1981-1992, the large-scale spatial distribution of nitrate concentration did not show significant change in the shape of spatial surfaces; while the magnitude of nitrate concentration in the basin, or height of the computed surfaces showed significant fluctuations. The change in magnitude of nitrate concentration is closely related to climatic variations, especially in precipitation. The lack of change in the shape of spatial surfaces means that either the influence of land use/nitrogen management was overshadowed by climatic influence, or the changes in land use/management occurred in a random fashion.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗

USGS2025

Navigating the possibilities and pitfalls of biocrust recovery in a changing climate

Biological soil crusts are complex communities composed of lichens, mosses, bacteria, and cyanobacteria that create a living skin on the soil surface across drylands worldwide. Although small in size, the vast area that biocrusts cover and the critical functions they provide make them a cornerstone of dryland health and resiliency. In addition to being important, biocrusts are exceptionally vulnerable to certain types of disturbance. Although they can withstand a wide range of temperatures and long periods without precipitation, biocrusts are highly sensitive to land-use change and are vulnerable to physical and compressional disturbance (i.e., trampling, vehicles, cattle, heavy machinery). In the face of these disturbances, a critical, long-standing question of interest to dryland ecologists is: Can biocrusts recover following disturbance without active intervention. If so, how long does it take? Early estimates of biocrust recovery suggested recovery can be incredibly slow (on the order of thousands of years), with more modern studies finding potential for faster recovery, especially with intervention. Multiple lines of evidence agree that recovery is context dependent, differing across climates, soils, and with the types of disturbance and biocrust. Additionally, active restoration of biocrusts is becoming more common as tractable strategies are developed for facilitating the establishment of biocrusts after disturbance. Here, we add to the body of knowledge about biocrust recovery following disturbances by reviewing recovery patterns, their connection to climate change, considerations for recovery in changing climates, and the role of restoration.

American Journal of Botany↗

USGS2007

A comparison of delta change and downscaled GCM scenarios for three mountainous basins in the United States

Simulated daily precipitation, temperature, and runoff time series were compared in three mountainous basins in the United States: (1) the Animas River basin in Colorado, (2) the East Fork of the Carson River basin in Nevada and California, and (3) the Cle Elum River basin in Washington State. Two methods of climate scenario generation were compared: delta change and statistical downscaling. The delta change method uses differences between simulated current and future climate conditions from the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (HadCM2) General Circulation Model (GCM) added to observed time series of climate variables. A statistical downscaling (SDS) model was developed for each basin using station data and output from the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis regridded to the scale of HadCM2. The SDS model was then used to simulate local climate variables using HadCM2 output for current and future conditions. Surface climate variables from each scenario were used in a precipitation-runoff model. Results from this study show that, in the basins tested, a precipitation-runoff model can simulate realistic runoff series for current conditions using statistically downscaled NCEP output. But, use of downscaled HadCM2 output for current or future climate assessments are questionable because the GCM does not produce accurate estimates of the surface variables needed for runoff in these regions. Given the uncertainties in the GCMs ability to simulate current conditions based on either the delta change or downscaling approaches, future climate assessments based on either of these approaches must be treated with caution.

California, Colorado, Nevada, Washington↗

USGS2012

Elevated streamflows increase dam passage by juvenile coho salmon during winter: Implications of climate change in the Pacific Northwest

A 4-year evaluation was conducted to determine the proportion of juvenile coho salmon Oncorhynchus kisutch passing Cowlitz Falls Dam, on the Cowlitz River, Washington, during winter. River and reservoir populations of coho salmon parr were monitored using radiotelemetry to determine if streamflow increases resulted in increased downstream movement and dam passage. This was of interest because fish that pass downstream of Cowlitz Falls Dam become landlocked in Riffe Lake and are lost to the anadromous population. Higher proportions of reservoir-released fish (0.391-0.480) passed Cowlitz Falls Dam than did river-released fish (0.037-0.119). Event-time analyses demonstrated that streamflow increases were important predictors of dam passage rates during the study. The estimated effect of increasing streamflows on the risk of dam passage varied annually and ranged from 9% to 75% for every 28.3 m 3 /s increase in streamflow. These results have current management implications because they demonstrate the significance of dam passage by juvenile coho salmon during winter months when juvenile fish collection facilities are typically not operating. The results also have future management implications because climate change predictions suggest that peak streamflow timing for many watersheds in the Pacific Northwest will shift from late spring and early summer to winter. Increased occurrence of intense winter flood events is also expected. Our results demonstrate that juvenile coho salmon respond readily to streamflow increases and initiate downstream movements during winter months, which could result in increased passage at dams during these periods if climate change predictions are realized in the coming decades.

Washington↗

USGS2007

Managing the Nation's water in a changing climate

ABSTRACT: Among the many concerns associated with global climate change, the potential effects on water resources are frequently cited as the most worrisome. In contrast, those who manage water resources do not rate climatic change among their top planning and operational concerns. The difference in these views can be associated with how water managers operate their systems and the types of stresses, and the operative time horizons, that affect the Nation's water resources infrastructure. Climate, or more precisely weather, is an important variable in the management of water resources at daily to monthly time scales because water resources systems generally are operated on a daily basis. At decadal to centennial time scales, though, climate is much less important because (1) forecasts, particularly of regional precipitation, are extremely uncertain over such time periods, and (2) the magnitude of effects due to changes in climate on water resources is small relative to changes in other variables such as population, technology, economics, and environmental regulation. Thus, water management agencies find it difficult to justify changing design features or operating rules on the basis of simulated climatic change at the present time, especially given that reservoir-design criteria incorporate considerable buffering capacity for extreme meteorological and hydro-logical events.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗

USGS2007

Molecular ecology of the big brown bat (Eptesicus fuscus): Genetic and natural history variation in a hybrid zone

Several geographically distinct mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) lineages of the big brown bat (Eptesicus fuscus) have been documented in North America. Individuals from 2 of these lineages, an eastern and a western form, co-occur within maternity colonies in Colorado. The discovery of 2 divergent mtDNA lineages in sympatry prompted a set of questions regarding possible biological differences between haplotypes. We captured big brown bats at maternity roosts in Colorado and recorded data on body size, pelage color, litter size, roosting and overwintering behaviors, and local distributions. Wing biopsies were collected for genetic analysis. The ND2 region of the mtDNA molecule was used to determine lineage of the bats. In addition, nuclear DNA (nDNA) intron 1 of the ??-globin gene was used to determine if mtDNA lineages are hybridizing. Eastern and western mtDNA lineages differed by 10.3% sequence divergence and examination of genetic data suggests recent population expansion for both lineages. Differences in distribution occur along the Colorado Front Range, with an increasing proportion of western haplotypes farther south. Results from nDNA analyses demonstrated hybridization between the 2 lineages. Additionally, no outstanding distinctiveness was found between the mtDNA lineages in natural history characters examined. We speculate that historical climate changes separated this species into isolated eastern and western populations, and that secondary contact with subsequent interbreeding was facilitated by European settlement. ?? 2007 American Society of Mammalogists.

Journal of Mammalogy↗

USGS2010

Interactions between walleyes and smallmouth bass in a Missouri River reservoir with consideration of the influence of temperature and prey

Walleyes Sander vitreus are the most popular fish among South Dakota anglers, but smallmouth bass Micropterus dolomieu were introduced to provide new angling opportunities. Some walleye anglers have reported reductions in the quality of walleye fisheries since the introduction of smallmouth bass and attribute this to the consumption of young walleyes by smallmouth bass and competition for shared prey resources. We quantified the diets of walleyes and smallmouth bass in the lower reaches of Lake Sharpe (a Missouri River reservoir), calculated the diet overlap between the two predators, and determined whether they partitioned shared prey based on size. We also quantified walleye diets in the upper reach of the reservoir, which has a different prey base and allowed us to compare the growth rates of walleyes within Lake Sharpe. Age-0 gizzard shad Dorosoma cepedianum composed a substantial proportion of the diets of both predators, regardless of location, for most of the growing season; the patterns in shad vulnerability appeared to drive the observed patterns in diet overlap. Smallmouth bass appeared to consume a smaller size range of gizzard shad than did walleyes, which consumed a wide range. Smallmouth bass consumed Sander spp. in some months, but in very low quantities. Given that global climate change is expected to alter the population and community dynamics in Great Plains reservoirs, we also used a bioenergetics approach to predict the potential effects of limiting prey availability (specifically, the absence of gizzard shad and rainbow smelt Osmerus mordax ) and increased water temperatures (as projected from global climate change models) on walleye and smallmouth bass growth. The models indicated that the absence of rainbow smelt from the diets of walleyes in upper Lake Sharpe would reduce growth but that the absence of gizzard shad would have a more marked negative effect on both predators at both locations. The models also indicated that higher water temperatures would have an even greater negative influence on walleye growth; however, smallmouth bass growth was predicted to increase with higher temperatures. Fisheries managers should consider strategies to enhance the prey base or mitigate the effects of increased water temperatures that may occur in the future as a result of global climate change. Such proactive actions may alleviate potential future competition between walleyes and smallmouth bass resulting from changes in the fish community.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗

USGS2015

Effects of climate and land cover on hydrology in the southeastern U.S.: Potential impacts on watershed planning

The hydrologic response to statistically downscaled general circulation model simulations of daily surface climate and land cover through 2099 was assessed for the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin located in the southeastern United States. Projections of climate, urbanization, vegetation, and surface-depression storage capacity were used as inputs to the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System to simulate projected impacts on hydrologic response. Surface runoff substantially increased when land cover change was applied. However, once the surface depression storage was added to mitigate the land cover change and increases of surface runoff (due to urbanization), the groundwater flow component then increased. For hydrologic studies that include projections of land cover change (urbanization in particular), any analysis of runoff beyond the change in total runoff should include effects of stormwater management practices as these features affect flow timing and magnitude and may be useful in mitigating land cover change impacts on streamflow. Potential changes in water availability and how biota may respond to changes in flow regime in response to climate and land cover change may prove challenging for managers attempting to balance the needs of future development and the environment. However, these models are still useful for assessing the relative impacts of climate and land cover change and for evaluating tradeoffs when managing to mitigate different stressors.

Alabama, Florida, Georgia↗

USGS2013

Air - water temperature relationships in the trout streams of southeastern Minnesota’s carbonate - sandstone landscape

Carbonate-sandstone geology in southeastern Minnesota creates a heterogeneous landscape of springs, seeps, and sinkholes that supply groundwater into streams. Air temperatures are effective predictors of water temperature in surface-water dominated streams. However, no published work investigates the relationship between air and water temperatures in groundwater-fed streams (GWFS) across watersheds. We used simple linear regressions to examine weekly air-water temperature relationships for 40 GWFS in southeastern Minnesota. A 40-stream, composite linear regression model has a slope of 0.38, an intercept of 6.63, and R 2 of 0.83. The regression models for GWFS have lower slopes and higher intercepts in comparison to surface-water dominated streams. Regression models for streams with high R 2 values offer promise for use as predictive tools for future climate conditions. Climate change is expected to alter the thermal regime of groundwater-fed systems, but will do so at a slower rate than surface-water dominated systems. A regression model of intercept vs . slope can be used to identify streams for which water temperatures are more meteorologically than groundwater controlled, and thus more vulnerable to climate change. Such relationships can be used to guide restoration vs . management strategies to protect trout streams.

Minnesota↗

USGS2006

An episode of rapid bedrock channel incision during the last glacial cycle, measured with 10Be

We use 10Be to infer when, how fast, and why the Susquehanna River incised through bedrock along the U.S. Atlantic seaboard, one of the world's most prominent and ancient passive margins. Although the rate at which large rivers incise rock is a fundamental control on the development of landscapes, relatively few studies have directly measured how quickly such incision occurs either in tectonically active environments or along passive margins. Exposure ages of fluvially carve d, bedrock strath terraces, preserved along the lower Susquehanna River, demonstrate that even along a passive margin, large rivers are capable of incising through rock for short periods of time at rates approaching those recorded in tectonically active regions, such as the Himalayas. Over eighty samples, collected along and between three prominent levels of strath terraces within Holtwood Gorge, indicate that the Susquehanna River incised more than 10 meters into the Appalachian Piedmont during the last glacial cycle. Beginning ???36 ka, incision rates increased dramatically, and remained elevated until ???14 ka. The northern half of the Susquehanna basin was glaciated during the late Wisconsinan; however, similar rates and timing of incision occurred in the unglaciated Potomac River basin immediately to the south. The concurrence of incision periods on both rivers suggests that glaciation and associated meltwater were not the primary drivers of incision. Instead, it appears that changing climatic conditions during the late Pleistocene promoted an increase in the frequency and magnitude of flood events capable of exceeding thresholds for rock detachment and bedrock erosion, thus enabling a short-lived episode of rapid incision into rock. Although this study has constraine d the timing and rate of bedrock incision along the largest river draining the Atlantic passive margin, the dates alone cannot explain fully why, or by what processes, this incision occurred. However, cosmogenic dating offers compelling evidence that episodes of rapid incision into bedrock are tied to glacial cycles and changes in global climate. These results, and the methods we employ, provide valuable insights into the nature of bedrock channel incision, not only along the Susquehanna River and passive margins, but also across a wide range of settings around the globe. Because river incision into bedrock transmits the effects of changing climate and tectonics through fluvial networks to hillslopes, comprehending when, where, and why rivers incise has important implications for the evolution of landscapes.

American Journal of Science↗

USGS2020

Changes in climate and land cover affect seasonal streamflow forecasts in the Rio Grande headwaters

Seasonal streamflow forecast bias, changes in climate, snowpack, and land cover, and the effects of these changes on relations between basin‐wide snowpack, SNOw TELemetry (SNOTEL) station snowpack, and seasonal streamflow were evaluated in the headwaters of the Rio Grande, Colorado. Results indicate that shifts in the seasonality of precipitation and changing climatology are consistent with periods of overprediction and underprediction in streamflow forecasts. Multiple linear regression of SNOTEL data, postcedent precipitation, and land‐cover changes explained 2%–18% more variability in streamflow prediction than using SNOTEL station data alone. Simulated basin‐wide snowpack from a physically based model had significant negative trends in snow water equivalent (−4.33 mm/yr) and snow‐covered area (−0.05%/yr) during the melt period April–June. Simulated streamflow from a precipitation‐runoff model increased an average 5% when the effects of bark beetle‐induced tree mortality were compared to a baseline simulation with static vegetation. The effects of a 2013 wildfire increased simulated seasonal streamflow an average 35% for 1–4 years postfire. The combined effects of climate and land‐cover changes on snowpack‐streamflow relations highlight the difficulty in seasonal streamflow forecasting, which has important implications for water‐resource management.

Colorado↗

USGS2014

The aging of America's reservoirs: In-reservoir and downstream physical changes and habitat implications

Reservoirs are important for various purposes including flood control, water supply, power generation, and recreation. The aging of America's reservoirs and progressive loss of water storage capacity resulting from ongoing sedimentation, coupled with increasing societal needs, will cause the social, economic, environmental, and political importance of reservoirs to continually increase. The short- and medium-term (<50 years) environmental consequences of reservoir construction and operation are well known and include an altered flow regime, lost connectivity (longitudinal, floodplain), an altered sediment regime, substrate compositional change, and downstream channel degradation. In general, reservoir-related changes have had adverse consequences for the natural ecosystem. Longer term (>50 years) environmental changes as reservoirs enter “old” age are less understood. Additional research is needed to help guide the future management of aging reservoir systems and support the difficult decisions that will have to be made. Important research directions include assessment of climate change effects on aging and determination of ecosystem response to ongoing aging and various management actions that may be taken with the intent of minimizing or reversing the physical effects of aging.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗

USGS2014

Quantifying the effectiveness of conservation measures to control the spread of anthropogenic hybridization in stream salmonids: A climate adaptation case study

Quantifying the effectiveness of management actions to mitigate the effects of changing climatic conditions (i.e., climate adaptation) can be difficult, yet critical for conservation. We used population genetic data from 1984 to 2011 to assess the degree to which ambient climatic conditions and targeted suppression of sources of nonnative Rainbow Trout Oncorhynchus mykiss have influenced the spread of introgressive hybridization in native populations of Westslope Cutthroat Trout O. clarkii lewisi . We found rapid expansion in the spatial distribution and proportion of nonnative genetic admixture in hybridized populations from 1984 to 2004, but minimal change since 2004. The spread of hybridization was negatively correlated with the number of streamflow events in May that exceeded the 75th percentile of historic flows ( r = −0.98) and positively correlated with August stream temperatures ( r = 0.89). Concomitantly, suppression data showed a 60% decline in catch per unit effort for fish with a high proportion of Rainbow Trout admixture, rendering some uncertainty as to the relative strength of factors controlling the spread of hybridization. Our results illustrate the importance of initiating management actions to mitigate the potential effects of climate change, even where data describing the effectiveness of such actions are initially limited but the risks are severe.

Montana↗

USGS2023

Seasonal abundance and habitat associations of American Kestrels on the Southern High Plains of Texas

American Kestrel ( Falco sparverius ) populations are generally declining across the species' North American distribution but the population in the Southern High Plains region currently appears to be stable. Historical evidence suggests the region formerly had a low abundance of kestrels, and that their current numbers are due to landscape changes associated with European settlement. We conducted monthly surveys for American Kestrels across 2 yr to estimate seasonal densities and identify land cover associations in the Southern High Plains of Texas. We found an overall estimated density of 0.99 birds/km 2 (95% CI = 0.406, 1.582) across the 2-yr period, with seasonal estimated densities highest in autumn and winter (0.92–2.53/ km 2 ), and lowest in spring (0.49–0.67/km 2 ). Whereas other studies have found that temperature influenced detection of wintering kestrels, we found an interaction of drought conditions and snow most strongly influenced the number of kestrels in our study area. Kestrels largely used land cover types in proportion to availability but there was some evidence of seasonal shifts. Generally, they tended to avoid cotton fields and sometimes selected for areas with woodlots, abandoned or occupied houses, and barns, all of which likely provided nesting and roosting opportunities. Our study provides the first contemporary assessment of seasonal abundance and habitat associations of American Kestrels in the Southern High Plains, where their presence and abundance has been unintentionally facilitated by landscape changes following settlement. We provide a baseline for population monitoring and studies assessing response to additional landscape changes (e.g., development of wind energy facilities) and a changing climate.

Journal of Raptor Research↗

USGS2009

Detection and attribution of streamflow timing changes to climate change in the Western United States

This article applies formal detection and attribution techniques to investigate the nature of observed shifts in the timing of streamflow in the western United States. Previous studies have shown that the snow hydrology of the western United States has changed in the second half of the twentieth century. Such changes manifest themselves in the form of more rain and less snow, in reductions in the snow water contents, and in earlier snowmelt and associated advances in streamflow "center" timing (the day in the "water-year" on average when half the water-year flow at a point has passed). However, with one exception over a more limited domain, no other study has attempted to formally attribute these changes to anthropogenic increases of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Using the observations together with a set of global climate model simulations and a hydrologic model (applied to three major hydrological regions of the western United States_the California region, the upper Colorado River basin, and the Columbia River basin), it is found that the observed trends toward earlier "center" timing of snowmelt-driven streamflows in the western United States since 1950 are detectably different from natural variability (significant at the p < 0.05 level). Furthermore, the nonnatural parts of these changes can be attributed confidently to climate changes induced by anthropogenic greenhouse gases, aerosols, ozone, and land use. The signal from the Columbia dominates the analysis, and it is the only basin that showed a detectable signal when the analysis was performed on individual basins. It should be noted that although climate change is an important signal, other climatic processes have also contributed to the hydrologic variability of large basins in the western United States. ?? 2009 American Meteorological Society.

Journal of Climate↗

USGS1994

Historical decline and current status of coho salmon in California

The southernmost populations of coho salmon Oncorhynchus kisutch occur in California where native coho stocks have declined or disappeared from all streams in which they were historically recorded. Coho salmon previously occurred in as many as 582 streams, from the Smith River near the Oregon border to the San Lorenzo River on the central coast. Information on the recent presence or absence of coho salmon was available for only 248 (43%) of those streams. Of these 248 streams, 54% still contained coho salmon and 46% did not. The farther south a stream is located, the more likely it is to have lost its coho salmon population. We estimate that the total number of adult coho salmon entering California streams in 1987-1991 averaged around 31,000 fish per year, with hatchery populations making up 57% of this total. Thus, about 13,000 nonhatchery coho salmon have been spawning in California streams each year since 1987, an estimate that includes naturalized stocks containing about 9,000 fish of recent hatchery ancestry. There are now probably less than 5,000 native coho salmon (with no known hatchery ancestry) spawning in California each year, many of them in populations of less than 100 individuals. Coho populations today are probably less than 6% of what they were in the 1940s, and there has been at least a 70% decline since the 1960s. There is every reason to believe that California coho populations, including hatchery stocks, will continue to decline. The reasons for the decline of coho salmon in California include: stream alterations brought about by poor land-use practices (especially those related to logging and urbanization) and by the effects of periodic floods and drought, the breakdown of genetic integrity of native stocks, introduced diseases, overharvest, and climatic change. We believe, that ,coho salmon in California qualify for listing as a threatened species under state law, and certain populations may qualify for listing as threatened or endangered under federal law.

California↗

USGS2012

Interactive coupling of a lake thermal model with a regional climate model

A one‐dimensional model of lake temperature, evaporation, and ice has been coupled in an interactive mode with the climate version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research/Pennsylvania State University regional (mesoscale) atmospheric model (MM4). The coupled MM4‐lake model makes possible high‐resolution simulations of climate in the proximity of large water bodies. Atmospheric variables required as input for the lake model are supplied by MM4 and simulated values of lake temperature, evaporation, and ice cover axe supplied to MM4 by the lake model. We have tested the coupled model system with a 60‐day, summertime simulation at Pyramid Lake, Nevada, and with a 10‐day, wintertime simulation of the North American Great Lakes and vicinity. Both simulations were conducted at a 60‐km resolution. Results from these tests indicate the coupled model system produces realistic simulations of lake temperature, evaporation, and ice cover and that the coupled system is applicable to simulations of regional climate change.

Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres↗

USGS2007

Climate change: Potential impacts and interactions in wetlands of the United States

Wetlands exist in a transition zone between aquatic and terrestrial environments which can be altered by subtle changes in hydrology. Twentieth century climate records show that the United States is generally experiencing a trend towards a wetter, warmer climate; some climate models suggest that his trend will continue and possibly intensify over the next 100 years. Wetlands that are most likely to be affected by these and other potential changes (e.g., sea-level rise) associated with atmospheric carbon enrichment include permafrost wetlands, coastal and estuarine wetlands, peatlands, alpine wetlands, and prairie pothote wetlands. Potential impacts range from changes in community structure to changes in ecological function, and from extirpation to enhancement. Wetlands (particularly boreal peatlands) play an important role in the global carbon cycle, generally sequestering carbon in the form of biomass, methane, dissolved organic material and organic sediment. Wetlands that are drained or partially dried can become a net source of methane and carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, serving as a positive biotic feedback to global warming. Policy options for minimizing the adverse impacts of climate change on wetland ecosystems include the reduction of current anthropogenic stresses, allowing for inland migration of coastal wetlands as sea-level rises, active management to preserve wetland hydrology, and a wide range of other management and restoration options.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗