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Monitoring and research at Walnut Creek National Wildlife Refuge

Walnut Creek National Wildlife Refuge-Prairie Learning Center (Walnut Creek or the Refuge) is one of the newest additions to the National Wildlife Refuge System, which consists of over 480 units throughout the United States operated by the U.S. Department of the Interior, Fish and Wildlife Service (the Service). Located about 20 miles east of Des Moines, Iowa, the Refuge has an approved acquisition boundary containing 8,654 acres (Figure 1). Acquisition is from willing sellers only, and to date the Service has purchased approximately 5,000 acres. The acquisition boundary encompasses about 43% of the watershed of Walnut Creek, which bisects the Refuge and drains into the Des Moines River to the southeast. Approximately 25%-30% of the Walnut Creek watershed is downstream of the Refuge. As authorized by Congress in 1990, the purposes of the Refuge are to (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service 1992): • restore native tallgrass pairie, wetland, and woodland habitats for breeding and migratory waterfowl and resident wildlife; • serve as a major environmental education center providing opportunities for study; • provide outdoor recreation benefits to the public; and • provide assistance to local landowners to improve their lands for wildlife habitat. To implement these purposes authorized by Congress, the Refuge has established the goal of recreating as nearly as possible the natural communities that existed at the time of settlement by Euro-Americans (circa 1840). Current land use is largely agricultural, including 69% cropland, 17% grazed pasture, and 7.5% grassland (dominantly brome) enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program). About 1,395 acres of relict native communities also exist on the Refuge, including prairie (725 acres), oak savanna and woodland (450 acres), and riparian or wetland areas (220 acres). Some of these relicts are highly restorable; others contain only a few prairie plants in a matrix of brome and will be more difficult to restore. When the process of restoration (management and enhancement of existing remnant communities) and reconstruction (reestablishment of native communities on agricultural sites) is completed, it is anticipated that the Refuge will consist of approximately 5,900 acres of prairie, 2,000 acres of oak savanna or woodland, and 750 acres of wetland and riparian communities. Ecological restoration and reconstruction at this scale in the tallgrass prairie ecosystem is unprecedented in the United States.

Report

Statistical review of systematic reconnaissance flight (SRF) surveys (2008-2023) for monitoring American alligator (Alligator mississippiensis) nests in Everglades National Park

We reviewed current (2008-2023) protocols for monitoring American alligator nests in Everglades National Park (ENP) using a qualitative statistical review framework that emphasizes connecting measurable objectives with evaluation of survey design elements. Our review outlined the statistical assumptions that, if severely violated, would prevent defensible inferences from being drawn regarding the three alligator nesting metrics monitored in ENP’s systematic reconnaissance flight (SRF) surveys: nest effort (number of nests), nest distribution, and nest fate. After evaluating the current survey and inference methods, we offer potential adjustments or augmentations to the design and models currently used to better account for potential error sources and align the stated objectives with statistical inferences.

Florida

Assessing American eel (Anguilla rostrata) distribution in a heavily dammed watershed using eDNA : The Penobscot River watershed, Maine, USA

Catadromous American eel ( Anguilla rostrata ) are native to Maine's Penobscot River watershed and historically have migrated through many of its tributaries prior to extensive damming. Recent restoration efforts, including dam removals, have improved connectivity in the lower reaches of the Penobscot River. Characterizing the extent of the American eel's distribution is important to inform restoration and identify extant barriers to migrations within the watershed. In the summer of 2023, we conducted eDNA surveys throughout the Penobscot River watershed to estimate the current distribution of the American eel and identify barriers to inland waters. Water samples were collected from 70 sites representing 37 rivers and streams; the presence or absence of American eel genetic markers within those samples was assessed using qPCR. We have shown that American eel are present in virtually the full extent of the area surveyed (68/70 sites). The results suggest that the majority of the main-stem dams may be passed by American eels at some level, with eel DNA being confirmed upstream of six dams. We confirmed the presence of American eels throughout the lower watershed with just 1 week of eDNA sampling and have highlighted this method for determining the species' access to habitat upstream of dams. The use of eDNA to sample locally (or regionally) for American eel may provide cost-effective information in data deficient areas and help assess the permeability of dam structures to diadromous species.

Maine

Predictors of current and longer-term patterns of abundance of American pikas ( Ochotona princeps ) across a leading-edge protected area

American pikas ( Ochotona princeps ) have been heralded as indicators of montane-mammal response to contemporary climate change. Pikas no longer occupy the driest and lowest-elevation sites in numerous parts of their geographic range. Conversely, pikas have exhibited higher rates of occupancy and persistence in Rocky Mountain and Sierra Nevada montane ‘mainlands’. Research and monitoring efforts on pikas across the western USA have collectively shown the nuance and complexity with which climate will often act on species in diverse topographic and climatic contexts. However, to date no studies have investigated habitat, distribution, and abundance of pikas across hundreds of sites within a remote wilderness area. Additionally, relatively little is known about whether climate acts most strongly on pikas through direct or indirect (e.g., vegetation-mediated) mechanisms. During 2007–2009, we collectively hiked >16,000 km throughout the 410,077-ha Glacier National Park, Montana, USA, in an effort to identify topographic, microrefugial, and vegetative characteristics predictive of pika abundance. We identified 411 apparently pika-suitable habitat patches with binoculars ( in situ ), and surveyed 314 of them for pika signs. Ranking of alternative logistic-regression models based on AIC c scores revealed that short-term pika abundances were positively associated with intermediate elevations, greater cover of mosses, and taller forbs, and decreased each year, for a total decline of 68% during the three-year study; whereas longer-term abundances were associated only with static variables (longitude, elevation, gradient) and were lower on north-facing slopes. Earlier Julian date and time of day of the survey (i.e., midday vs. not) were associated with lower observed pika abundance. We recommend that wildlife monitoring account for this seasonal and diel variation when surveying pikas. Broad-scale information on status and abundance determinants of montane mammals, especially for remote protected areas, is crucial for land and wildlife-resource managers trying to anticipate mammalian responses to climate change.

Montana

Potential effects of climate change on the distribution of waterbirds in the Prairie Pothole Region, U.S.A.

Wetland-dependent birds are considered to be at particularly high risk for negative climate change effects. Current and future distributions of American Bittern ( Botaurus lentiginosus ), American Coot ( Fulica americana ), Black Tern ( Chlidonias niger ), Pied-billed Grebe ( Podilymbus podiceps ) and Sora ( Porzana carolina ), five waterbird species common in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR), were predicted using species distribution models (SDMs) in combination with climate data that projected a drier future for the PPR. Regional-scale SDMs were created for the U.S. PPR using breeding bird survey occurrence records for 1971-2000 and wetland and climate parameters. For each waterbird species, current distribution and four potential future distributions were predicted: all combinations of two Global Circulation Models and two emissions scenarios. Averaged for all five species, the ensemble range reduction was 64%. However, projected range losses for individual species varied widely with Sora and Black Tern projected to lose close to 100% and American Bittern 29% of their current range. Future distributions were also projected to a hypothetical landscape where wetlands were numerous and constant to highlight areas suitable as conservation reserves under a drier future climate. The ensemble model indicated that northeastern North Dakota and northern Minnesota would be the best areas for conservation reserves within the U.S. PPR under the modeled conditions.

North Dakota;South Dakota;Minnesota;Iowa

A model‐data intercomparison of CO2 exchange across North America: Results from the North American Carbon Program site synthesis

Our current understanding of terrestrial carbon processes is represented in various models used to integrate and scale measurements of CO 2 exchange from remote sensing and other spatiotemporal data. Yet assessments are rarely conducted to determine how well models simulate carbon processes across vegetation types and environmental conditions. Using standardized data from the North American Carbon Program we compare observed and simulated monthly CO 2 exchange from 44 eddy covariance flux towers in North America and 22 terrestrial biosphere models. The analysis period spans ∼220 site‐years, 10 biomes, and includes two large‐scale drought events, providing a natural experiment to evaluate model skill as a function of drought and seasonality. We evaluate models' ability to simulate the seasonal cycle of CO 2 exchange using multiple model skill metrics and analyze links between model characteristics, site history, and model skill. Overall model performance was poor; the difference between observations and simulations was ∼10 times observational uncertainty, with forested ecosystems better predicted than nonforested. Model‐data agreement was highest in summer and in temperate evergreen forests. In contrast, model performance declined in spring and fall, especially in ecosystems with large deciduous components, and in dry periods during the growing season. Models used across multiple biomes and sites, the mean model ensemble, and a model using assimilated parameter values showed high consistency with observations. Models with the highest skill across all biomes all used prescribed canopy phenology, calculated NEE as the difference between GPP and ecosystem respiration, and did not use a daily time step.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences

The Summer Atlas of North American Birds

The North American Breeding Bird Survey comprises a network of regularly censussed, road-based survey routes and constitutes the most comprehensive set of data on the relative abundance and population trends of these birds during the summer months. Its value was highlighted in 1989, when the data were used to confirm suspected population declines in a number of species of neotropical migrants breeding in the northeastern United States and Canada. In this book Jeff and Amy Price and Sam Droege have used these data to create detailed, computer-generated maps showing the relative abundance of 450 species that summer in the contiguous United States and southern Canada. Tabular information on distribution hotspots for these, and a further 50 or so species too local in occurrence to map effectively, are also presented. As a data-based survey, the focus of the maps is on places where occurrence has been systematically confirmed over a number of years. As such, the maps provide a baseline for future and more regionally based studies. Supporting chapters provide details on the survey methodology, the mapping procedures used, and some current concerns in North American bird conservation.

Book

Tracking fisheries through time: The American Fisheries Society as an historical lens

The historical context of current environment conditions offers vital guidance to North American fisheries professionals as they strive to develop effective management plans and policies. This retrospective includes understanding the remarkable historic fisheries resource and causative reasons for establishing their public fisheries agencies and the American Fisheries Society (Society). Through a review of primary historical documents and literature for North America, this paper identifies: factors contributing to the of founding of the Society and public fish commissions; shows how selected resource issues evolved; and documents how and why selected fisheries and aquatic habitat policies changed in response to those issues. Overexploitation, landscape-scale habitat alterations, mining, and dams were the causative agents for emergence of fisheries agencies and the Society, and these environmental factors remain relevant today. Beginning in the 1960s, after 100 years of inaction, North Americans grew tired of degraded waters and fisheries and forced policy changes that have directly and indirectly affected the fisheries we manage today. The historical events and resulting corrective legislation are taken for granted by those unaware that our Society has actively participated in developing policies to address these environmental harms. Further, the Society continues to play a vital role in identifying key issues, providing conduits for information to cope with impairments, and advocating for policies to conserve intact habitats and improve degraded systems. The struggles documented in this paper offer crucial lessons as we continue to be challenged by legacy resource issues and face emerging environmental stressors such as climate change as well as regression in long-standing environmental protection policies.

Fisheries Magazine

Climate-change refugia in boreal North America: What, where, and for how long?

T The vast boreal biome plays an important role in the global carbon cycle but is experiencing particularly rapid climate warming, threatening the integrity of valued ecosystems and their component species. We developed a framework and taxonomy to identify climate‐change refugia potential in the North American boreal region, summarizing current knowledge regarding mechanisms, geographic distribution, and landscape indicators. While “terrain‐mediated” refugia will mostly be limited to coastal and mountain regions, the ecological inertia (resistance to external fluctuations) contained in some boreal ecosystems may provide more extensive buffering against climate change, resulting in “ecosystem‐protected” refugia. A notable example is boreal peatlands, which can retain high surface soil moisture and water tables even in the face of drought. Refugia from wildfire are also especially important in the boreal region, which is characterized by active disturbance regimes. Our framework will help identify areas of high refugia potential, and inform ecosystem management and conservation planning in light of climate change.

North America

Tidal Wetlands and Estuaries

1. The top 1 m of tidal wetland soils and estuarine sediments of North America contains 1,886 ± 1046 teragrams of carbon (Tg C). [High confidence, Very likely] 2. Soil carbon accumulation rate (i.e., sediment burial) in North American tidal wetlands is currently 9 ± 5 Tg C per year and estuarine carbon burial is 5 ± 3 Tg C per year. [High confidence, Likely] 3. The lateral flux of carbon from tidal wetlands to estuaries is 16 ± 10 Tg C per year for North America. [Low confidence, Likely] 4. In North America, tidal wetlands remove 27 ± 13 Tg C per year from the atmosphere, estuaries outgas 10 ± 10 Tg C per year to the atmosphere, and the net uptake by the combined wetland-estuary system is 17 ± 16 Tg C per year. [Low confidence, Likely] 5. Research and modeling needs are greatest for understanding responses to accelerated sea level rise, mapping tidal wetland and estuarine extent and quantification of CO2 and CH4 exchange with the atmosphere, especially in large, under-sampled, and rapidly changing regions. [High confidence, Likely] Note: Confidence levels are provided as appropriate for quantitative, but not qualitative, Key Findings and statements.

Book chapter

Spatial and stage-structured population model of the American crocodile for comparison of comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) alternatives

As part of the U.S. Geological Survey Priority Ecosystems Science (PES) initiative to provide the ecological science required during Everglades restoration, we have integrated current regional hydrologic models with American crocodile (Crocodylus acutus) research and monitoring data to create a model that assesses the potential impact of Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) efforts on the American crocodile. A list of indicators was created by the Restoration Coordination and Verification (RECOVER) component of CERP to help determine the success of interim restoration goals. The American crocodile was established as an indicator of the ecological condition of mangrove estuaries due to its reliance upon estuarine environments characterized by low salinity and adequate freshwater inflow. To gain a better understanding of the potential impact of CERP restoration efforts on the American crocodile, a spatially explicit crocodile population model has been created that has the ability to simulate the response of crocodiles to various management strategies for the South Florida ecosystem. The crocodile model uses output from the Tides and Inflows in the Mangroves of the Everglades (TIME) model, an application of the Flow and Transport in a Linked Overland/Aquifer Density Dependent System (FTLOADDS) simulator. TIME has the capability to link to the South Florida Water Management Model (SFWMM), which is the primary regional tool used to assess CERP restoration scenarios. A crocodile habitat suitability index and spatial parameter maps that reflect salinity, water depth, habitat, and nesting locations are used as driving functions to construct crocodile finite rate of increase maps under different management scenarios. Local stage-structured models are integrated with a spatial landscape grid to display crocodile movement behavior in response to changing environmental conditions. Restoration efforts are expected to affect salinity levels throughout the habitat of the American crocodile. This modeling effort examines how CERP restoration alternatives will affect growth and survival rates of hatchling and juvenile crocodiles, hatchling dispersal to suitable nursery habitat, and relative abundance and distribution in response to changing salinity and water depth for all stage classes of crocodiles. The response of the American crocodile to restoration efforts will provide a quantifiable measure of restoration success. By applying the crocodile model to proposed restoration alternatives and predicting population responses, we can choose alternatives that approximate historical conditions, enhance habitat for multiple species, and identify future research needs.

Open-File Report

A review of lethal thermal tolerance among freshwater mussels (Bivalvia: Unionida) within the North American faunal region

Freshwater mussels of the order Unionida are currently one of the most imperiled groups of organisms in the North American faunal region. Accurate risk assessments and development of effective management strategies for remaining populations require knowledge of thermal limits in the face of increasing surface water temperature due to climate change and various anthropogenic factors. We conducted a systematic literature review of unionid mussels (order Unionida, families Margaritiferidae and Unionidae) in the North American faunal region to (1) summarize lethal thermal tolerance data by life stage and taxonomy, (2) discuss ecological and climate change implications of existing lethal tolerance data, and (3) identify needs for future research. We identified lethal tolerance estimates for only 28 of 302 species in the families Unionidae and Margaritiferidae. The mean acute median lethal temperatures were 32.8 °C for glochidia (19 species), 35.0 °C for juveniles (13 species), and 36.3 °C for adults (4 species). Generally, glochidia were less tolerant than juveniles or adults of the same species—but there were several exceptions. Generally, Amblemini had the highest acute and chronic thermal tolerance of all tribes followed by Anodontini, Pleurobemini, Lampsilini, and Quadrilini. Acclimation temperature affected lethal tolerance endpoints in less than half (52 of 145) of comparisons within species. Lethal tolerance data for additional species, combined with a comprehensive database of in situ surface water temperatures, would be useful for modeling the frequency and duration of lethal limit exceedance in North America and identifying populations currently living at or near their upper lethal limits.

Environmental Reviews

Regional controls on geomorphology, hydrology, and ecosystem integrity in the Orinoco Delta, Venezuela

Interacting river discharge, tidal oscillation, and tropical rainfall across the 22,000 km2 Orinoco delta plain support diverse fresh and brackish water ecosystems. To develop environmental baseline information for this largely unpopulated region, we evaluate major coastal plain, shallow marine, and river systems of northeastern South America, which serves to identify principal sources and controls of water and sediment flow into, through, and out of the Orinoco Delta. The regional analysis includes a summary of the geology, hydrodynamics, sediment dynamics, and geomorphic characteristics of the Orinoco drainage basin, river, and delta system. Because the Amazon River is a major source of sediment deposited along the Orinoco coast, we summarize Amazon water and sediment input to the northeastern South American littoral zone. We investigate sediment dynamics and geomorphology of the Guiana coast, where marine processes and Holocene history are similar to the Orinoco coast. Major factors controlling Orinoco Delta water and sediment dynamics include the pronounced annual flood discharge; the uneven distribution of water and sediment discharge across the delta plain; discharge of large volumes of water with low sediment concentrations through the Rio Grande and Araguao distributaries; water and sediment dynamics associated with the Guayana littoral current along the northeastern South American coast; inflow of large volumes of Amazon sediment to the Orinoco coast; development of a fresh water plume seaward of Boca Grande; disruption of the Guayana Current by Trinidad, Boca de Serpientes, and Gulf of Paria; and the constriction at Boca de Serpientes. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Geomorphology

Ecosystems science: Genes to landscapes

Bountiful fisheries, healthy and resilient wildlife, flourishing forests and vibrant grasslands are coveted resources that benefit all Americans. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) science supports the conservation and management of the Nation’s fish and wildlife, and the landscapes they inhabit. Our biological resources—ecosystems and the wild things that live in them—are the foundation of our conservation heritage and an economic asset to current and future generations of Americans. The USGS Ecosystems Mission Area, the biological research arm of the Department of the Interior (DOI), provides science to help America achieve sustainable management and conservation of its biological resources. This work is done within the broader mission of the USGS—to serve the Nation with science that advances understanding of our natural resources, informs land and water stewardship, and helps safeguard communities from natural and environmental hazards. The Ecosystems Mission Area provides research, technical assistance, and education conducted by Cooperative Research Units and Science Centers located in nearly every State. The quality of life and economic strength in America hinges on healthy ecosystems that support living things and natural processes. Ecosystem science better enables society to understand how and why ecosystems change and to guide actions that can prevent damage to, and restore and sustain ecosystems. It is through this knowledge that informed decisions are made about natural resources that can enhance our Nation’s economic and environmental well-being.

Fact Sheet

Forewarned is forearmed! Progress in development of the U.S. National Early Detection and Rapid Response System for invasive plants: Proposal for a North American early warning system for invasive plants

Currently, a National Early Detection and Rapid Response System (EDRR) for Invasive Plants is being developed in the United States. Conceptually, the system is a coordinated framework of local, state, and national interagency groups that is designed to prevent the establishment and spread of new invasive plants through early detection and reporting of suspected new invaders, identification and vouchering of specimens by cooperating botanists, archiving of confirmed new records in regional and national plant databases, rapid assessment of confirmed new exotic species by federal and state scientists, and rapid control response to new incursions that can be eradicated. A National EDRR Framework is also being developed in Canada, through the work of the federal ministries, as well as provincial invasive species councils. With a functional EDRR communications structure in place in Canada and the U.S., a North American Early Warning System for Invasive Plants can be developed to help publicize information about new and emerging invasive plants across the continent.

Conference Paper

Unconventional energy resources: 2007-2008 review

This paper summarizes five 2007–2008 resource commodity committee reports prepared by the Energy Minerals Division (EMD) of the American Association of Petroleum Geologists. Current United States and global research and development activities related to gas hydrates, gas shales, geothermal resources, oil sands, and uranium resources are included in this review. These commodity reports were written to advise EMD leadership and membership of the current status of research and development of unconventional energy resources. Unconventional energy resources are defined as those resources other than conventional oil and natural gas that typically occur in sandstone and carbonate rocks. Gas hydrate resources are potentially enormous; however, production technologies are still under development. Gas shale, geothermal, oil sand, and uranium resources are now increasing targets of exploration and development, and are rapidly becoming important energy resources that will continue to be developed in the future.

Natural Resources Research

High priority needs for range-wide monitoring of North American landbirds

This document is an extension of work done for the Partners in Flight North American Landbird Conservation Plan (Rich et al. 2004). The Continental Plan reviewed conservation status of the 448 native landbird species that regularly breed in the United States and Canada. Two groups of species were identified as having high conservation importance: the PIF Watch List, made up of species for which there is conservation concern, and Stewardship Spices that are particularly characteristic of regional avifaunas. In addition, continental scale monitoring needs were identified for all species. Here we extend the monitoring needs aspect of the Plan, providing additional detail and suggesting the best means of filling the gaps in broad-scale, long-term trend monitoring. This analysis and report was compiled by the Partners in Flight (PIF) Science Committee as a contribution to current work by the North American Bird Conservation Initiative to assess the status of bird population monitoring in North America and to make recommendations for improvements.

Partners in Flight Technical Series

Executive summary. In Second State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR2): A Sustained Assessment Report

Central to life on Earth, carbon is essential to the molecular makeup of all living things and plays a key role in regulating global climate. To understand carbon’s role in these processes, researchers measure and evaluate carbon stocks and fluxes. A stock is the quantity of carbon contained in a pool or reservoir in the Earth system (e.g., carbon in forest trees), and a flux is the direction and rate of carbon’s transfer between pools (e.g., the movement of carbon from the atmosphere into forest trees during photosynthesis). This document, the Second State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR2), examines the patterns of carbon stocks and fluxes—collectively called the “carbon cycle.” Emphasis is given to these patterns in specific sectors (e.g., agriculture and energy) and ecosystems (e.g., forests and coastal waters) and to the response of the carbon cycle to human activity. The purpose of SOCCR2 is to assess the current state of the North American carbon cycle and to present recent advances in understanding the factors that influence it. Concentrating on North America—Canada, the United States, and Mexico—the report describes carbon cycling for air, land, inland waters (streams, rivers, lakes, and reservoirs), and coastal waters (see Figure ES.1, p. 23). The questions framing the publication A U.S. Carbon Cycle Science Plan (Michalak et al., 2011) inspired development of three slightly modified questions that guide SOCCR2’s content and focus on North America in a global context: How have natural processes and human actions affected the global carbon cycle on land, in the atmosphere, in the ocean and other aquatic systems, and at ecosystem interfaces (e.g., coastal, wetland, and urban-rural)? How have socioeconomic trends affected atmospheric levels of the primary carbon-containing gases, carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4)? How have species, ecosystems, natural resources, and human systems been impacted by increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, associated changes in climate, and carbon management decisions and practices? SOCCR2 synthesizes the most recent understanding of carbon cycling in North America, assessing new carbon cycle findings and information, the state of knowledge regarding core methods used to study the carbon cycle, and future research needed to best inform carbon management and policy options. Focusing on scientific developments in the decade since the First State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR1; CCSP 2007), SOCCR2 summarizes the past, current, and projected state of carbon sources, sinks, and natural processes, as well as contributions by human activities. In addition to CO2 and CH4, the report sometimes discusses nitrous oxide (N2O), a GHG associated with activities and processes that affect fluxes of carbon gases.1 SOCCR2 also describes improvements in analysis tools; developments in decision support; and new insights into ecosystem carbon cycling, human causes of changes in the carbon cycle, and social science perspectives on carbon. Since publication of SOCCR1, coordinated research from agencies in the three North American countries has enabled innovative observational, analytical, and modeling capabilities to further advance understanding of the North American carbon cycle (see Appendix D: Carbon Measurement Approaches and Accounting Frameworks, p. 834). Some of the report’s main conclusions, based on the Key Findings of each chapter, are highlighted in Box ES.1, Main Findings of SOCCR2, p. 24.

Report