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A comparison of two finite element models of tidal hydrodynamics using a North Sea data set

Using the region of the English Channel and the southern bight of the North Sea, we systematically compare the results of two independent finite element models of tidal hydrodynamics. The model intercomparison provides a means for increasing our understanding of the relevant physical processes in the region in question as well as a means for the evaluation of certain algorithmic procedures of the two models.

Advances in Water Resources

Development and application of a hillslope hydrologic model

A vertically integrated two-dimensional lateral flow model of soil moisture has been developed. Derivation of the governing equation is based on a physical interpretation of hillslope processes. The lateral subsurface-flow model permits variability of precipitation and evapotranspiration, and allows arbitrary specification of soil-moisture retention properties. Variable slope, soil thickness, and saturation are all accommodated. The numerical solution method, a Crank-Nicolson, finite-difference, upstream-weighted scheme, is simple and robust. A small catchment in northeastern Kansas is the subject of an application of the lateral subsurface-flow model. Calibration of the model using observed discharge provides estimates of the active porosity (0.1 cm 3 /cm 3 ) and of the saturated horizontal hydraulic conductivity (40 cm/hr). The latter figure is at least an order of magnitude greater than the vertical hydraulic conductivity associated with the silty clay loam soil matrix. The large value of hydraulic conductivity derived from the calibration is suggestive of macropore-dominated hillslope drainage. The corresponding value of active porosity agrees well with a published average value of the difference between total porosity and field capacity for a silty clay loam.

Advances in Water Resources

Sampling design for spatially distributed hydrogeologic and environmental processes

A methodology for the design of sampling networks over space is proposed. The methodology is based on spatial random field representations of nonhomogeneous natural processes, and on optimal spatial estimation techniques. One of the most important results of random field theory for physical sciences is its rationalization of correlations in spatial variability of natural processes. This correlation is extremely important both for interpreting spatially distributed observations and for predictive performance. The extent of site sampling and the types of data to be collected will depend on the relationship of subsurface variability to predictive uncertainty. While hypothesis formulation and initial identification of spatial variability characteristics are based on scientific understanding (such as knowledge of the physics of the underlying phenomena, geological interpretations, intuition and experience), the support offered by field data is statistically modelled. This model is not limited by the geometric nature of sampling and covers a wide range in subsurface uncertainties. A factorization scheme of the sampling error variance is derived, which possesses certain atttactive properties allowing significant savings in computations. By means of this scheme, a practical sampling design procedure providing suitable indices of the sampling error variance is established. These indices can be used by way of multiobjective decision criteria to obtain the best sampling strategy. Neither the actual implementation of the in-situ sampling nor the solution of the large spatial estimation systems of equations are necessary. The required values of the accuracy parameters involved in the network design are derived using reference charts (readily available for various combinations of data configurations and spatial variability parameters) and certain simple yet accurate analytical formulas. Insight is gained by applying the proposed sampling procedure to realistic examples related to sampling problems in two dimensions.

Advances in Water Resources

Three-dimensional local grid refinement for block-centered finite-difference groundwater models using iteratively coupled shared nodes: A new method of interpolation and analysis of errors

This paper describes work that extends to three dimensions the two-dimensional local-grid refinement method for block-centered finite-difference groundwater models of Mehl and Hill [Development and evaluation of a local grid refinement method for block-centered finite-difference groundwater models using shared nodes. Adv Water Resour 2002;25(5):497-511]. In this approach, the (parent) finite-difference grid is discretized more finely within a (child) sub-region. The grid refinement method sequentially solves each grid and uses specified flux (parent) and specified head (child) boundary conditions to couple the grids. Iteration achieves convergence between heads and fluxes of both grids. Of most concern is how to interpolate heads onto the boundary of the child grid such that the physics of the parent-grid flow is retained in three dimensions. We develop a new two-step, "cage-shell" interpolation method based on the solution of the flow equation on the boundary of the child between nodes shared with the parent grid. Error analysis using a test case indicates that the shared-node local grid refinement method with cage-shell boundary head interpolation is accurate and robust, and the resulting code is used to investigate three-dimensional local grid refinement of stream-aquifer interactions. Results reveal that (1) the parent and child grids interact to shift the true head and flux solution to a different solution where the heads and fluxes of both grids are in equilibrium, (2) the locally refined model provided a solution for both heads and fluxes in the region of the refinement that was more accurate than a model without refinement only if iterations are performed so that both heads and fluxes are in equilibrium, and (3) the accuracy of the coupling is limited by the parent-grid size - A coarse parent grid limits correct representation of the hydraulics in the feedback from the child grid.

Advances in Water Resources

Temporal variations and scaling of streamflow and baseflow and their nitrate-nitrogen concentrations and loads

The patterns of temporal variations of precipitation (P), streamflow (SF) and baseflow (BF) as well as their nitrate-nitrogen (nitrate) concentrations (C) and loads (L) from a long-term record (28 years) in the Raccoon River, Iowa, were analyzed using variogram and spectral analyses. The daily P is random but scaling may exist in the daily SF and BF with a possible break point in the scaling at about 18 days and 45 days, respectively. The nitrate concentrations and loads are shown to have a half-year cycle while daily P, SF, and BF have a one-year cycle. Furthermore, there may be a low-frequency cycle of 6-8 years in C. The power spectra of C and L in both SF and BF exhibit fractal 1/f scaling with two characteristic frequencies of half-year and one-year, and are fitted well with the spectrum of the gamma distribution. The nitrate input to SF and BF at the Raccoon watershed seems likely to be a white noise process superimposed on another process with a half-year and one-year cycle. ?? 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Advances in Water Resources

Inverse modeling for seawater intrusion in coastal aquifers: Insights about parameter sensitivities, variances, correlations and estimation procedures derived from the Henry problem

Inverse modeling studies employing data collected from the classic Henry seawater intrusion problem give insight into several important aspects of inverse modeling of seawater intrusion problems and effective measurement strategies for estimation of parameters for seawater intrusion. Despite the simplicity of the Henry problem, it embodies the behavior of a typical seawater intrusion situation in a single aquifer. Data collected from the numerical problem solution are employed without added noise in order to focus on the aspects of inverse modeling strategies dictated by the physics of variable-density flow and solute transport during seawater intrusion. Covariances of model parameters that can be estimated are strongly dependent on the physics. The insights gained from this type of analysis may be directly applied to field problems in the presence of data errors, using standard inverse modeling approaches to deal with uncertainty in data. Covariance analysis of the Henry problem indicates that in order to generally reduce variance of parameter estimates, the ideal places to measure pressure are as far away from the coast as possible, at any depth, and the ideal places to measure concentration are near the bottom of the aquifer between the center of the transition zone and its inland fringe. These observations are located in and near high-sensitivity regions of system parameters, which may be identified in a sensitivity analysis with respect to several parameters. However, both the form of error distribution in the observations and the observation weights impact the spatial sensitivity distributions, and different choices for error distributions or weights can result in significantly different regions of high sensitivity. Thus, in order to design effective sampling networks, the error form and weights must be carefully considered. For the Henry problem, permeability and freshwater inflow can be estimated with low estimation variance from only pressure or only concentration observations. Permeability, freshwater inflow, solute molecular diffusivity, and porosity can be estimated with roughly equivalent confidence using observations of only the logarithm of concentration. Furthermore, covariance analysis allows a logical reduction of the number of estimated parameters for ill-posed inverse seawater intrusion problems. Ill-posed problems may exhibit poor estimation convergence, have a non-unique solution, have multiple minima, or require excessive computational effort, and the condition often occurs when estimating too many or co-dependent parameters. For the Henry problem, such analysis allows selection of the two parameters that control system physics from among all possible system parameters.

Advances in Water Resources

Numerical modeling of a long-term in situ chemical osmosis experiment in the Pierre Shale, South Dakota

We have numerically modeled evolving fluid pressures and concentrations from a nine-year in situ osmosis experiment in the Pierre Shale, South Dakota. These data were obtained and recently interpreted by one of us (C.E.N.) as indicating a potentially significant role for chemical osmosis in media like the Pierre Shale. That analysis considered only the final pressure differentials among boreholes that were assumed to represent osmotic equilibrium. For this study, the system evolution was modeled using a recently developed transient model for membrane transport. The model simulates hydraulically and chemically driven fluid and solute transport. The results yield an estimate of the thickness of the water film between the clay platelets b of 40 A??, which corresponds to an osmotic efficiency ?? of 0.21 for the ambient pore water salinity of 3.5 g/l TDS. These values largely confirm the results of the earlier equilibrium analysis. However, the new model analysis provides additional constraints suggesting that intrinsic permeability k = 1.4 ?? 10-19 m2, specific storage Ss = 1.7 ?? 10-5 m-1, and diffusion coefficient D* = 6 ?? 10-11 m2/s. The k value is larger than certain independent estimates which range from 10-21 to 10-20; it may indicate opening of microcracks during the experiments. The fact that the complex transient pressure and concentration behavior for the individual wells could be reproduced quite accurately, and the inferred parameter values appear to be realistic for the Pierre Shale, suggests that the new model is a useful tool for modeling transient coupled flows in groundwater systems. ?? 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Advances in Water Resources

Assimilation of snow covered area information into hydrologic and land-surface models

This paper describes a data assimilation method that uses observations of snow covered area (SCA) to update hydrologic model states in a mountainous catchment in Colorado. The assimilation method uses SCA information as part of an ensemble Kalman filter to alter the sub-basin distribution of snow as well as the basin water balance. This method permits an optimal combination of model simulations and observations, as well as propagation of information across model states. Sensitivity experiments are conducted with a fairly simple snowpack/water-balance model to evaluate effects of the data assimilation scheme on simulations of streamflow. The assimilation of SCA information results in minor improvements in the accuracy of streamflow simulations near the end of the snowmelt season. The small effect from SCA assimilation is initially surprising. It can be explained both because a substantial portion of snowmelts before any bare ground is exposed, and because the transition from 100% to 0% snow coverage occurs fairly quickly. Both of these factors are basin-dependent. Satellite SCA information is expected to be most useful in basins where snow cover is ephemeral. The data assimilation strategy presented in this study improved the accuracy of the streamflow simulation, indicating that SCA is a useful source of independent information that can be used as part of an integrated data assimilation strategy. ?? 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Advances in Water Resources

Role of chemotaxis in the transport of bacteria through saturated porous media

Populations of chemotactic bacteria are able to sense and respond to chemical gradients in their surroundings and direct their migration toward increasing concentrations of chemicals that they perceive to be beneficial to their survival. It has been suggested that this phenomenon may facilitate bioremediation processes by bringing bacteria into closer proximity to the chemical contaminants that they degrade. To determine the significance of chemotaxis in these processes it is necessary to quantify the magnitude of the response and compare it to other groundwater processes that affect the fate and transport of bacteria. We present a systematic approach toward quantifying the chemotactic response of bacteria in laboratory scale experiments by starting with simple, well-defined systems and gradually increasing their complexity. Swimming properties of individual cells were assessed from trajectories recorded by a tracking microscope. These properties were used to calculate motility and chemotaxis coefficients of bacterial populations in bulk aqueous media which were compared to experimental results of diffusion studies. Then effective values of motility and chemotaxis coefficients in single pores, pore networks and packed columns were analyzed. These were used to estimate the magnitude of the chemotactic response in porous media and to compare with dispersion coefficients reported in the field. This represents a compilation of many studies over a number of years. While there are certainly limitations with this approach for ultimately quantifying motility and chemotaxis in granular aquifer media, it does provide insight into what order of magnitude responses are possible and which characteristics of the bacteria and media are expected to be important.

Advances in Water Resources

Groundwater flow with energy transport and water-ice phase change: Numerical simulations, benchmarks, and application to freezing in peat bogs

In northern peatlands, subsurface ice formation is an important process that can control heat transport, groundwater flow, and biological activity. Temperature was measured over one and a half years in a vertical profile in the Red Lake Bog, Minnesota. To successfully simulate the transport of heat within the peat profile, the U.S. Geological Survey's SUTRA computer code was modified. The modified code simulates fully saturated, coupled porewater-energy transport, with freezing and melting porewater, and includes proportional heat capacity and thermal conductivity of water and ice, decreasing matrix permeability due to ice formation, and latent heat. The model is verified by correctly simulating the Lunardini analytical solution for ice formation in a porous medium with a mixed ice-water zone. The modified SUTRA model correctly simulates the temperature and ice distributions in the peat bog. Two possible benchmark problems for groundwater and energy transport with ice formation and melting are proposed that may be used by other researchers for code comparison.

Minnesota

A new ghost-node method for linking different models and initial investigations of heterogeneity and nonmatching grids

A flexible, robust method for linking parent (regional-scale) and child (local-scale) grids of locally refined models that use different numerical methods is developed based on a new, iterative ghost-node method. Tests are presented for two-dimensional and three-dimensional pumped systems that are homogeneous or that have simple heterogeneity. The parent and child grids are simulated using the block-centered finite-difference MODFLOW and control-volume finite-element FEHM models, respectively. The models are solved iteratively through head-dependent (child model) and specified-flow (parent model) boundary conditions. Boundary conditions for models with nonmatching grids or zones of different hydraulic conductivity are derived and tested against heads and flows from analytical or globally-refined models. Results indicate that for homogeneous two- and three-dimensional models with matched grids (integer number of child cells per parent cell), the new method is nearly as accurate as the coupling of two MODFLOW models using the shared-node method and, surprisingly, errors are slightly lower for nonmatching grids (noninteger number of child cells per parent cell). For heterogeneous three-dimensional systems, this paper compares two methods for each of the two sets of boundary conditions: external heads at head-dependent boundary conditions for the child model are calculated using bilinear interpolation or a Darcy-weighted interpolation; specified-flow boundary conditions for the parent model are calculated using model-grid or hydrogeologic-unit hydraulic conductivities. Results suggest that significantly more accurate heads and flows are produced when both Darcy-weighted interpolation and hydrogeologic-unit hydraulic conductivities are used, while the other methods produce larger errors at the boundary between the regional and local models. The tests suggest that, if posed correctly, the ghost-node method performs well. Additional testing is needed for highly heterogeneous systems. ?? 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Advances in Water Resources

Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modeling (LUCHEM). I: Model intercomparison with current land use

This paper introduces the project on 'Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modeling (LUCHEM)' that aims at investigating the envelope of predictions on changes in hydrological fluxes due to land use change. As part of a series of four papers, this paper outlines the motivation and setup of LUCHEM, and presents a model intercomparison for the present-day simulation results. Such an intercomparison provides a valuable basis to investigate the effects of different model structures on model predictions and paves the ground for the analysis of the performance of multi-model ensembles and the reliability of the scenario predictions in companion papers. In this study, we applied a set of 10 lumped, semi-lumped and fully distributed hydrological models that have been previously used in land use change studies to the low mountainous Dill catchment, Germany. Substantial differences in model performance were observed with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies ranging from 0.53 to 0.92. Differences in model performance were attributed to (1) model input data, (2) model calibration and (3) the physical basis of the models. The models were applied with two sets of input data: an original and a homogenized data set. This homogenization of precipitation, temperature and leaf area index was performed to reduce the variation between the models. Homogenization improved the comparability of model simulations and resulted in a reduced average bias, although some variation in model data input remained. The effect of the physical differences between models on the long-term water balance was mainly attributed to differences in how models represent evapotranspiration. Semi-lumped and lumped conceptual models slightly outperformed the fully distributed and physically based models. This was attributed to the automatic model calibration typically used for this type of models. Overall, however, we conclude that there was no superior model if several measures of model performance are considered and that all models are suitable to participate in further multi-model ensemble set-ups and land use change scenario investigations. ?? 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Advances in Water Resources

Time-series modeling of reservoir effects on river nitrate concentrations

Saylorville Reservoir is a 24.1 km 2 impoundment of the Des Moines River located approximately 10 km north of the City of Des Moines, Iowa, USA. Surface water from the Des Moines River used for drinking water supply is impaired for nitrate-nitrogen. Monthly mean nitrate concentration data collected upstream and downstream of the reservoir for a 30-year period (1977-2006) were selected for time-series analysis. Our objectives were to (1) develop a model describing nitrate concentrations downstream of the reservoir as a function of the concentrations entering the reservoir and (2) use the model to provide a 1-month ahead forecast for downstream water quality. Results indicated that downstream nitrate can be effectively modeled using a transfer function approach that utilized inflow concentrations during the current and previous month as input variables. Inflow concentrations were modeled using an AR(20) model, with the higher order model consistent with temporal correlation noted by others. The transfer function model suggested that the reservoir is reducing nitrate concentrations by 22 ?? 6%, a reduction that greatly exceeds previous estimates. Monthly nitrate forecasted with the model were nearly all within a 95% prediction interval of their actual measured values and did not appear greatly affected by flow variations. ?? 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Advances in Water Resources

Grid-size dependence of Cauchy boundary conditions used to simulate stream-aquifer interactions

This work examines the simulation of stream–aquifer interactions as grids are refined vertically and horizontally and suggests that traditional methods for calculating conductance can produce inappropriate values when the grid size is changed. Instead, different grid resolutions require different estimated values. Grid refinement strategies considered include global refinement of the entire model and local refinement of part of the stream. Three methods of calculating the conductance of the Cauchy boundary conditions are investigated. Single- and multi-layer models with narrow and wide streams produced stream leakages that differ by as much as 122% as the grid is refined. Similar results occur for globally and locally refined grids, but the latter required as little as one-quarter the computer execution time and memory and thus are useful for addressing some scale issues of stream–aquifer interactions. Results suggest that existing grid-size criteria for simulating stream–aquifer interactions are useful for one-layer models, but inadequate for three-dimensional models. The grid dependence of the conductance terms suggests that values for refined models using, for example, finite difference or finite-element methods, cannot be determined from previous coarse-grid models or field measurements. Our examples demonstrate the need for a method of obtaining conductances that can be translated to different grid resolutions and provide definitive test cases for investigating alternative conductance formulations.

Advances in Water Resources

Use of upscaled elevation and surface roughness data in two-dimensional surface water models

In this paper, we present an approach that uses a combination of cell-block- and cell-face-averaging of high-resolution cell elevation and roughness data to upscale hydraulic parameters and accurately simulate surface water flow in relatively low-resolution numerical models. The method developed allows channelized features that preferentially connect large-scale grid cells at cell interfaces to be represented in models where these features are significantly smaller than the selected grid size. The developed upscaling approach has been implemented in a two-dimensional finite difference model that solves a diffusive wave approximation of the depth-integrated shallow surface water equations using preconditioned Newton–Krylov methods. Computational results are presented to show the effectiveness of the mixed cell-block and cell-face averaging upscaling approach in maintaining model accuracy, reducing model run-times, and how decreased grid resolution affects errors. Application examples demonstrate that sub-grid roughness coefficient variations have a larger effect on simulated error than sub-grid elevation variations.

Advances in Water Resources

Improving sub-grid scale accuracy of boundary features in regional finite-difference models

As an alternative to grid refinement, the concept of a ghost node, which was developed for nested grid applications, has been extended towards improving sub-grid scale accuracy of flow to conduits, wells, rivers or other boundary features that interact with a finite-difference groundwater flow model. The formulation is presented for correcting the regular finite-difference groundwater flow equations for confined and unconfined cases, with or without Newton Raphson linearization of the nonlinearities, to include the Ghost Node Correction (GNC) for location displacement. The correction may be applied on the right-hand side vector for a symmetric finite-difference Picard implementation, or on the left-hand side matrix for an implicit but asymmetric implementation. The finite-difference matrix connectivity structure may be maintained for an implicit implementation by only selecting contributing nodes that are a part of the finite-difference connectivity. Proof of concept example problems are provided to demonstrate the improved accuracy that may be achieved through sub-grid scale corrections using the GNC schemes.

Advances in Water Resources

The impact of medium architecture of alluvial settings on non-Fickian transport

The influence of heterogeneous architecture of alluvial aquifers on non-Fickian transport is explored using the Monte Carlo approach. More than two thousand high-resolution hydrofacies models representing seven groups of alluvial settings are built to test the effects of varying facies proportions, mean length and its anisotropy ratio, juxtapositional tendencies, and sub-facies heterogeneity. Results show that the volumetric fraction (P(Z)) of floodplain layers classified by their thicknesses Z controls the non-Fickian tailing of tracer transport at late times. A simple quantitative relationship S BTC ≈S P(Z) /2-1 is built based on a multi-rate mass transfer analysis, where S BTC is the slope of the power-law portion of tracer breakthrough curve, and S P(Z) denotes the slope of the power-law portion of the distribution of P(Z) which can be measured, e.g., in core logs. At early times, the mean length of hydrofacies affects the non-Fickian tailing by controlling the channeling of flow in high-permeability non-floodplain materials and the sequestration in surrounding low-permeability floodplain layers. The competition between channeling and sequestration generates complex pre-asymptotic features, including sublinear growth of plume mean displacement, superlinear growth of plume variance, and skewed mass distribution. Those observations of the influence of medium heterogeneity on tracer transport at early and late times may lead to development of nonlocal transport models that can be parameterized using measurable aquifer characteristics.

Advances in Water Resources