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At least 343 records · Page 19Linked to original sources
USGS2021

Climate change implications for the conservation of amphibians in tropical environments.

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and the Puerto Rico Department of Natural and Environmental Resources want to develop a plan of actions to protect 12 species of coqui frogs (Eleutherodactylus spp.) that are currently considered at risk of being considered threatened or endangered, requiring additional protections under the Endangered Species Act. Actions center on two possible adaptation strategies: a) translocations to suitable, unoccupied habitat, and b) identifying climate-resilient habitats to ensure the persistence of species. Knowledge required to implement these strategies includes understanding how microhabitat and microclimatic factors – the local environmental conditions around individual frogs influence their occupancy (distribution), abundance, and reproduction; these were estimated by focusing on four representative species (E. wightmanae, E. brittoni, E. antillensis, and E. coqui). The abundance of all species but E. antillensis was positively and strongly influenced by moisture levels. As expected, E. antillensis exhibited an opposite relationship. Similarly, the reproductive activity of E. coqui was influenced by higher relative humidity and the presence of a chorus of other individuals. We found that our four focal species were not affected (e.g., abundance, reproduction) by the passing of hurricane Maria in September 2017, possibly because fallen debris creates conditions of increased food and shelter. Our findings help to assess habitat suitability, potential climate refuges, and inform timing for managed translocations.

Final Report↗
USGS2003

Large-scale phytogeographical patterns in East Asia in relation to latitudinal and climatic gradients

Aim: This paper aims at determining how different floristic elements (e.g. cosmopolitan, tropical, and temperate) change with latitude and major climate factors, and how latitude affects the floristic relationships between East Asia and the other parts of the world. Location: East Asia from the Arctic to tropical regions, an area crossing over 50?? of latitudes and covering the eastern part of China, Korea, Japan and the eastern part of Russia. Methods: East Asia is divided into forty-five geographical regions. Based on the similarity of their world-wide distributional patterns, a total of 2808 indigenous genera of seed plants found in East Asia were grouped into fourteen geographical elements, belonging to three major categories (cosmopolitan, tropical and temperate). The 50??-long latitudinal gradient of East Asia was divided into five latitudinal zones, each of c. 10??. Phytogeographical relationships of East Asia to latitude and climatic variables were examined based on the forty-five regional floras. Results: Among all geographical and climatic variables considered, latitude showed the strongest relationship to phytogeographical composition. Tropical genera (with pantropical, amphi-Pacific tropical, palaeotropical, tropical Asia-tropical Australia, tropical Asia-tropical Africa and tropical Asia geographical elements combined) accounted for c. 80% of the total genera at latitude 20??N and for c. 0% at latitude 55-60??N. In contrast, temperate genera (including holarctic, eastern Asia-North America, temperate Eurasia, temperate Asia, Mediterranean, western Asia to central Asia, central Asia and eastern Asia geographical elements) accounted for 15.5% in the southernmost latitude and for 80% at 55-60??N, from where northward the percentage tended to level off. The proportion of cosmopolitan genera increased gradually with latitude from 5% at the southernmost latitude to 21% at 55-60??N, where it levelled off northward. In general, the genera present in a more northerly flora are a subset of the genera present in a more southerly flora. Main conclusions: The large-scale patterns of phytogeography in East Asia are strongly related to latitude, which covaries with several climatic variables such as temperature. Evolutionary processes such as the adaptation of plants to cold climates and current and past land connections are likely responsible for the observed latitudinal patterns.

Journal of Biogeography↗
USGS2009

Pollen-based biome reconstructions for Latin America at 0, 6000 and 18 000 radiocarbon years ago

The biomisation method is used to reconstruct Latin American vegetation at 6000±500 and 18 000±1000 radiocarbon years before present ( 14 C yr BP) from pollen data. Tests using modern pollen data from 381 samples derived from 287 locations broadly reproduce potential natural vegetation. The strong temperature gradient associated with the Andes is recorded by a transition from high altitude cool grass/shrubland and cool mixed forest to mid-altitude cool temperate rain forest, to tropical dry, seasonal and rain forest at low altitudes. Reconstructed biomes from a number of sites do not match the potential vegetation due to local factors such as human impact, methodological artefacts and mechanisms of pollen representivity of the parent vegetation. At 6000±500 14 C yr BP 255 samples are analysed from 127 sites. Differences between the modern and the 6000±500 14 C yr BP reconstruction are comparatively small; change relative to the modern reconstruction are mainly to biomes characteristic of drier climate in the north of the region with a slight more mesic shift in the south. Cool temperate rain forest remains dominant in western South America. In northwestern South America a number of sites record transitions from tropical seasonal forest to tropical dry forest and tropical rain forest to tropical seasonal forest. Sites in Central America show a change in biome assignment, but to more mesic vegetation, indicative of greater plant available moisture, e.g. on the Yucatán peninsula sites record warm evergreen forest, replacing tropical dry forest and warm mixed forest presently recorded. At 18 000±1000 14 C yr BP 61 samples from 34 sites record vegetation reflecting a generally cool and dry environment. Cool grass/shrubland is prevalent in southeast Brazil whereas Amazonian sites record tropical dry forest, warm temperate rain forest and tropical seasonal forest. Southernmost South America is dominated by cool grass/shrubland, a single site retains cool temperate rain forest indicating that forest was present at some locations at the LGM. Some sites in Central Mexico and lowland Colombia remain unchanged in the biome assignments of warm mixed forest and tropical dry forest respectively, although the affinities that these sites have to different biomes do change between 18 000±1000 14 C yr BP and present. The "unresponsive" nature of these sites results from their location and the impact of local edaphic influence.

Climate of the Past↗
USGS2001

Sources of global warming in upper ocean temperature during El Niño

Global average sea surface temperature (SST) from 40°S to 60°N fluctuates ±0.3°C on interannual period scales, with global warming (cooling) during El Niño (La Niña). About 90% of the global warming during El Niño occurs in the tropical global ocean from 20°S to 20°N, half because of large SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific associated with El Niño and the other half because of warm SST anomalies occurring over ∼80% of the tropical global ocean. From examination of National Centers for Environmental Prediction [ Kalnay et al. , 1996] and Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set [ Woodruff et al. , 1993] reanalyses, tropical global warming during El Niño is associated with higher troposphere moisture content and cloud cover, with reduced trade wind intensity occurring during the onset phase of El Niño. During this onset phase the tropical global average diabatic heat storage tendency in the layer above the main pycnocline is 1–3 W m −2 above normal. Its principal source is a reduction in the poleward Ekman heat flux out of the tropical ocean of 2–5 W m −2 . Subsequently, peak tropical global warming during El Niño is dissipated by an increase in the flux of latent heat to the troposphere of 2–5 W m −2 , with reduced shortwave and longwave radiative fluxes in response to increased cloud cover tending to cancel each other. In the extratropical global ocean the reduction in poleward Ekman heat flux out of the tropics during the onset of El Niño tends to be balanced by reduction in the flux of latent heat to the troposphere. Thus global warming and cooling during Earth's internal mode of interannual climate variability arise from fluctuations in the global hydrological balance, not the global radiation balance. Since it occurs in the absence of extraterrestrial and anthropogenic forcing, global warming on decadal, interdecadal, and centennial period scales may also occur in association with Earth's internal modes of climate variability on those scales.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans↗
USGS1997

Effects of El Nino on streamflow, lake level, and landslide potential

One of the most important sources of year-to-year climate variation in the Southwest is the El Niño phenomenon of the tropical Pacific Ocean. El Niño is a natural but largely unpredictable condition that results from complex interplay among clouds and storms, regional winds, oceanic temperatures, and ocean currents along the equatorial Pacific. Under "normal" conditions, the tropical trade winds blow from east to west, Figure 1. Schematic diagram of normal and El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean. From NOAA El Niño website. ponding up warm water in the western Pacific. In the eastern Pacific, the trade winds pull up cold, deep, nutrient-rich waters along the equator from the Ecuadorian coast to the central Pacific. The warmth of the western Pacific results in a particularly vigorous hydrologic cycle there with towering cumulus clouds and tropical storms that "radiate" atmospheric waves and disturbances across vast regions of the globe. Heat and moisture lofted into the upper atmosphere by the clouds and storms are distributed by high-altitude winds across vast regions of the globe. During an El Niño, this situation is disrupted and the trade winds weaken, thus reducing the upwelling of cool waters in the eastern Pacific and allowing the pool of warm water in the west to drift eastward toward South America. As the central and eastern Pacific warms, atmospheric pressure gradients along the equator weaken, and the trade winds diminish even more. These changes in sea-level pressure of the atmosphere are characteristic of the strongest El Niño and were identified as the "Southern Oscillation" of the global atmosphere by Sir Gilbert Walker in the early decades of this century. A chicken-and-egg relation exists between the changes in ocean temperatures and changes in winds (and atmospheric pressure gradients); the two sets of changes reinforce and drive each other but neither is clearly or universally "the" initiator of El Niño. Ocean temperatures and surface winds interact to form the complex process, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The interactions can be set off by subtle changes in one or the other, by buffeting from other parts of the tropics, or from regions beyond the tropics. Such a complex interplay and its uncertain (and variable) origins are the primary limitations on our ability to predict El Niño. As the waters of the central and eastern Pacific warm, the powerful tropical Pacific storms begin to form farther east than usual (Fig. 1). As the distribution of storms spreads east along the equator, their influence on global weather systems also changes. Most notably, for our purposes, the jet stream over the North Pacific Ocean is invigorated and pulled farther south than normal, where it collects moisture and storms and carries them to the southwestern United States and northern Mexico. During an El Niño, the trade winds are too weak to cause upwelling of nutrient-rich waters off the coasts of Ecuador and Peru. Generations of South American fisherman thus have recognized these conditions by the disappearance of their standard catch, commonly during December and January, every three to seven years. Because of the near coincidence in timing between these conditions and Christmas, the fishing communities have called the phenomenon "El Niño", for the Christ child. The geologic record suggests that El Niño conditions have been a part of earth's climate for at least several thousand years. An El Niño event usually lasts for several seasons, and, along with its other effects, represents an interruption of the "normal" seasonal cycle of the tropical climate. After a few seasons, and usually during spring time (in the Northern Hemisphere), the seasonal cycle reasserts itself and the tropical ocean cools back to the normal east-to-west sea-surface temperature gradients. Sometimes the warm El Niño events give way to unusually cold sea-surface temperatures and unusually strong trade winds, a condition now called La Niña. On other occasions, La Niñas may begin on their own, without an immediately preceding El Niño. The effects of the El Niño and La Niña on global climate are, in part, mirror images of each other. For example, drought is a common occurrence in the southwestern United States during La Niña, in contrast to the wet years associated with El Niño.

Arizona, California, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, U↗
USGS2023

A 1.8 million year history of Amazon vegetation

During the Pleistocene, long-term trends in global climate were controlled by orbital cycles leading to high amplitude glacial-interglacial variability. The history of Amazonian vegetation during this period is largely unknown since no continuous record from the lowland basin extends significantly beyond the last glacial stage. Here we present a paleoenvironmental record spanning the last 1800 kyr based on palynological data, biome reconstructions, and biodiversity metrics from a marine sediment core that preserves a continuous archive of sediments from the Amazon River. Tropical rainforests dominated the Amazonian lowlands during the last 1800 ka interchanging with surrounding warm-temperate rainforests and tropical seasonal forests. Between 1800 and 1000 ka, rainforest biomes were present in the Amazon drainage basin, along with extensive riparian wetland vegetation. Tropical rainforest expansion occurred during the relatively warm Marine Isotope Stages 33 and 31 (ca. 1110 to 1060 ka), followed by a contraction of both forests and wetlands until ca. 800 ka. Between 800 and 400 ka, low pollen concentration and low diversity of palynological assemblages renders difficult the interpretation of Amazonian vegetation. A strong synchronicity between vegetation changes and glacial-interglacial global climate cycles was established around 400 ka. After 400 ka, interglacial vegetation was dominated by lowland tropical rainforest in association with warmer temperatures and higher CO 2 . During cooler temperatures and lower CO 2 of glacial stages, tropical seasonal forests expanded, presumably towards eastern Amazonia. While this study provides no evidence supporting a significant expansion of savanna or steppe vegetation within the Amazonian lowlands during glacial periods, there were changes in the rainforest composition in some parts of the basin towards a higher proportion of deciduous elements, pointing to less humid conditions and/or greater seasonality of precipitation. Nevertheless, rainforest persisted during both glacial and interglacial periods. These findings confirm the sensitivity of tropical lowland vegetation to changes in CO 2 , temperature, and moisture availability and the most suitable conditions for tropical rainforests occurred during the warmest stages of the Mid Pleistocene Transition and during the interglacial stages of the past 400 kyr.

Quaternary Science Reviews↗
USGS1998

Seasonal and interannual variations of atmospheric CO2 and climate

Interannual variations of atmospheric CO 2 concentrations at Mauna Loa are almost masked by the seasonal cycle and a strong trend; at the South Pole, the seasonal cycle is small and is almost lost in the trend and interannual variations. Singular-spectrum analysis (SSA) is used here to isolate and reconstruct interannual signals at both sites and to visualize recent decadal changes in the amplitude and phase of the seasonal cycle. Analysis of the Mauna Loa CO 2 series illustrates a hastening of the CO 2 seasonal cycle, a close temporal relation between Northern Hemisphere (NH) mean temperature trends and the amplitude of the seasonal CO 2 cycle, and tentative ties between the latter and seasonality changes in temperature over the NH continents. Variations of the seasonal CO 2 cycle at the South Pole differ from those at Mauna Loa: it is phase changes of the seasonal cycle at the South Pole, rather than amplitude changes, that parallel hemispheric and global temperature trends. The seasonal CO 2 cycles exhibit earlier occurrences of the seasons by 7 days at Mauna Loa and 18 days at the South Pole. Interannual CO 2 variations are shared at the two locations, appear to respond to tropical processes, and can be decomposed mostly into two periodicities, around (3 years) -1 and (4 years) -1 , respectively. Joint SSA analyses of CO 2 concentrations and tropical climate indices isolate a shared mode with a quasi-triennial (QT) period in which the CO 2 and sea-surface temperature (SST) participation are in phase opposition. The other shared mode has a quasi-quadrennial (QQ) period and CO 2 variations are in phase with the corresponding tropical SST variations throughout the tropics. Together these interannual modes exhibit a mean lag between tropical SSTs and CO 2 variations of about 6–8 months, with SST leading. Analysis of the QT and QQ signals in global gridded SSTs, joint SSA of CO 2 and δ13C isotopic ratios, and SSA of CO 2 and NH-land temperatures indicate that the QT variations in CO 2 mostly reflect upwelling variations in the eastern tropical Pacific. QQ variations are dominated by the CO 2 signature of terrestrial-ecosystem response to global QQ climate variations. Climate variations associated with these two interannual components of tropical variability have very different effects on global climate and, especially, on terrestrial ecosystems and the carbon cycle.

Tellus, Series B: Chemical and Physical Meteorolog↗
USGS2019

La Niña-driven flooding in the Indo-Pacific warm pool during the past millennium

Extreme precipitation events are one of the most consequential components of climate change for society. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of precipitation variability in the tropics and causes severe flooding and drought in many socioeconomically vulnerable regions. It remains unclear how tropical rainfall extremes and ENSO are changing in response to anthropogenic forcing, demanding that we investigate the relationships between precipitation, ENSO, and external forcing in the past. Lake sediment records have provided benchmark records of extreme flood events from the eastern tropical Pacific, where paleofloods have been interpreted to reflect El Niño events during the last millennium. However, the connections between flooding and ENSO variability in this region are uncertain, and the eastern Pacific can only capture precipitation events driven by El Niño, not La Niña. Thus, it is unclear how the ENSO system and tropical rainfall extremes have changed in the recent past. Here, we reconstruct flood events during the past millennium using a lake sediment record from East Java, Indonesia, which can provide insight into flooding driven by La Niña. We detect flood frequency variations in the western tropical Pacific that are highly coherent with records from the eastern part of the basin over the past millennium. Our findings demonstrate that heavy rainfall and flooding occurs more frequently on both sides of the tropical Pacific during periods of warmer Northern Hemisphere mean temperatures, implying that ENSO-driven rainfall extremes could intensify in the near future.

Quaternary Science Reviews↗
USGS1998

On the influence of biomass burning on the seasonal CO2 signal as observed at monitoring stations

We investigated the role of biomass burning in simulating the seasonal signal in both prognostic and diagnostic analyses. The prognostic analysis involved the High-Resolution Biosphere Model, a prognostic terrestrial biosphere model, and the coupled vegetation fire module, which together produce a prognostic data set of biomass burning. The diagnostic analysis involved the Simple Diagnostic Biosphere Model (SDBM) and the Hao and Liu [1994] diagnostic data set of biomass burning, which have been scaled to global 2 and 4 Pg C yr −1 , respectively. The monthly carbon exchange fields between the atmosphere and the biosphere with a spatial resolution of 0.5° × 0.5°, the seasonal atmosphere-ocean exchange fields, and the emissions from fossil fuels have been coupled to the three-dimensional atmospheric transport model TM2. We have chosen eight monitoring stations of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration network to compare the predicted seasonal atmospheric CO 2 signals with those deduced from atmosphere-biosphere carbon exchange fluxes without any contribution from biomass burning. The prognostic analysis and the diagnostic analysis with global burning emissions of 4 Pg C yr −1 agree with respect to the change in the amplitude of the seasonal CO 2 concentration introduced through biomass burning. We find that the seasonal CO 2 signal at stations in higher northern latitudes (north of 30°N) is marginally influenced by biomass burning. For stations in tropical regions an increase in the CO 2 amplitude of more than 1 ppmv (up to 50% with respect to the observed trough to peak amplitude) has been calculated. Biomass burning at stations farther south accounts for an increase in the CO 2 amplitude of up to 59% (0.6 ppmv). A change in the phase of the seasonal CO 2 signal at tropical and southern stations has been shown to be strongly influenced by the onset of biomass burning in southern tropical Africa and America. Comparing simulated and observed seasonal CO 2 signals, we find higher discrepancies at southern tropical stations if biomass burning emissions are included. This is caused by the additional increase in the amplitude in the prognostic analysis and a phase shift in a diagnostic analysis. In contrast, at the northern tropical stations biomass burning tends to improve the estimates of the seasonal CO 2 signal in the prognostic analysis because of strengthening of the amplitude. Since the SDBM predicts the seasonal CO 2 signal reasonably well for the northern hemisphere tropical stations, no general improvement of the fit occurs if biomass burning emissions are considered.

Global Biogeochemical Cycles↗
USGS2015

Geological processes and orchid biogeography with applications to southeast central America

This contribution owes its origins to a paper presentation by Dr. Calloway H. Dodson at the Second International Conference on Neotropical Orchidology held in San José, Costa Rica in May of2003 (Dodson 2003). Dr. Dodson outlined some ofthe reasons to suspect that regional geological fac-tors may play important roles in orchid speciation and biogeography and gave examples from the northwestern South America. He also suggested that evolutionary change in orchid might occur over fairly short time periods, perhaps even as short as decades, centuries or millennia (Dodson 2003, SHK lecture notes). These ideas stimulated the author, a professional earth scientist, to begin thinking about how these exciting ideas could begin to be tested in Costa Rica neighboring and Central American countries, an area that has drawn him to return frequently over the last decade. The present contribution is a proposal for integrating geological observations, such as the chronology of arc volcanic activity in Nicaragua,Costa Rica, and Panama, in hypothesis forming and testing of the geographic distribution of orchids (and possibly other biota). I initially focus on comparisons between orchid inventories on the windward slopes of mountainous regions (elevation > 1000 m)with high rainfall (> 1-2 m) in tropical regions, the so-called tropical cloud forests. These regions represent the tropical pre-montane rain forestto lower montane tropical rain forest life zones of Holdridge(1967) and the montane vegetation zone applied to Costa Rica and Panama by Dressler (1993). An important message of this paper is that such tropical mountainous regions are not necessarily static, but may change in elevation over geologic time due to active tectonic deformation and uplift and that the presence of active volcanism in a mountain range may also introduce additional chemical factors, such as volcanic gases, acid rain, and volcanic soils, and also physical factors, such as interruption of gene flow by explosive eruptions and coverage by their air fall products such as ash (tephra), lava flows, and lahars (volcanic mudflows). Thus over a given geological time interval, forests may be slowly increasing in elevation by tectonic uplift or by the accumulation of volcanic products such as steep-sided strato volcanoes (built from both lavas and tephra), or by down-slope accumulations of lava flows or lahars. Mountains may also lose elevation by erosion or by tectonic subsidence. As we shall see, tropical Central America shows an extraordinarily high level of tectonic and volcanic history that has changed its geography and, by implication, climate, life zones,and likely orchid distribution. My working hypo thesis put forward for testing is that orchid adaptations to these changes may have led to the development of new species and endemism in this region.

Lankesteriana↗
USGS2015

Flood recovery maps for the White River in Bethel, Stockbridge, and Rochester, Vermont, and the Tweed River in Stockbridge and Pittsfield, Vermont, 2014

From August 28 to 29, 2011, Tropical Storm Irene delivered rainfall ranging from about 4 inches to more than 7 inches in the White River Basin. The rainfall resulted in severe flooding throughout the basin and significant damage along the White River and Tweed River. In response to the flooding, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Federal Emergency Management Agency, conducted a new flood study to aid in the flood recovery and restoration. This flood study includes a 20.7-mile reach of the White River from the downstream end at about 2,000 feet downstream from the State Route 107 bridge in the Village of Bethel, Vermont, to the upstream end at about 1,000 feet upstream from the River Brook Drive bridge in the Village of Rochester, Vt., and a 7.9-mile reach of the Tweed River from its mouth in Stockbridge, Vt., to the confluence of the West and South Branches of the Tweed River and continuing upstream on the South Branch Tweed River to the Pittsfield, Vt., town line. This report presents water-surface elevations determined for the study reaches using the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers one-dimensional step-backwater Hydrologic Engineering Center River Analysis System model, also known as HEC– RAS. The water-surface elevations were determined for floods having a 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability (AEP) and for the floodway. Eighteen high-water marks from Tropical Storm Irene were available along the studied reaches. The discharges in the Tropical Storm Irene HEC–RAS model were adjusted so that the resulting water-surface elevations matched the high-water mark elevations along the study reaches. This allowed for an estimation of the water-surface profile throughout the study area resulting from Tropical Storm Irene. From a comparison of the estimated water-surface profile of Tropical Storm Irene to the water-surface profiles of the 1- and 0.2-percent AEP floods, it was determined that the high-water elevations resulting from Tropical Storm Irene exceeded the estimated 1-percent AEP flood throughout the White River and Tweed River study reaches and exceeded the estimated 0.2-percent AEP flood in 16.7 of the 28.6 study reach miles. The simulated water-surface profiles were then combined with a geographic information system digital elevation model derived from light detection and ranging (lidar) data having a 18.2-centimeter vertical accuracy at the 95-percent confidence level and 1-meter horizontal resolution to delineate the area flooded for each water-surface profile.

Vermont↗
USGS2015

Flood Map for the Winooski River in Waterbury, Vermont, 2014

From August 28 to 29, 2011, Tropical Storm Irene delivered rainfall ranging from approximately 4 to more than 7 inches in the Winooski River Basin in Vermont. The rainfall resulted in severe flooding throughout the basin and significant damage along the Winooski River. In response to the flooding, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Federal Emergency Management Agency, conducted a new flood study to aid in flood recovery and restoration and to assist in flood forecasting. The study resulted in two sets of flood maps that depict the flooding for an 8.3-mile reach of the Winooski River from about 1,000 feet downstream of the Waterbury-Bolton, Vermont, town line upstream to about 2,000 feet upstream of the Waterbury-Middlesex, Vt., town line. The first set of maps consists of flood-recovery maps depicting the boundaries of floodwaters at the 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability (AEP) discharges, the boundaries of the floodway, and the boundaries of floodwaters from Tropical Storm Irene as estimated by a hydraulic model. The second set of maps consists of flood-inundation maps depicting the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) at the USGS Winooski River above Crossett Bk at Waterbury, VT (04288040) streamgage. The maps correspond to streamgage water levels ranging from 417.0 to 431.0 feet in 2-foot increments. The availability of these flood-inundation maps along with current stage from the USGS streamgage obtained from a USGS Web site will provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood response activities such as evacuations and road closures, as well as for post-flood recovery efforts. These flood inundation maps can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Science Web site ( http://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/ ). To generate the maps, flood profiles for the Winooski River were developed. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers one-dimensional step-backwater Hydrologic Engineering Center River Analysis System model (HEC–RAS), was used to compute the water-surface profiles along the study reach. The simulated water-surface profiles were then combined with a geographic information system digital elevation model derived from light detection and ranging (lidar) data with a vertical accuracy that meets or exceeds vertical national map accuracy standards for 2-foot contour mapping to delineate the area flooded for each water-surface profile. High-water marks from Tropical Storm Irene were available for seven locations along the study reach. The highwater marks were used to estimate water-surface profiles and discharges resulting from Tropical Storm Irene throughout the study reach. From a comparison of the estimated water-surface profile for Tropical Storm Irene with the water-surface profiles for the 1- and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability (AEP) floods, it was determined that the high-water elevations resulting from Tropical Storm Irene exceeded the estimated 1-percent AEP flood throughout the Winooski River study reach but did not exceed the estimated 0.2-percent AEP flood at any location within the study reach.

Vermont↗
USGS2025

Flood of July 2023 in Vermont

A major storm caused catastrophic flooding in many parts of Vermont on July 9–12, 2023, resulting in millions of dollars in damages. The high amount of rainfall caused several rivers to peak at record levels, in some cases exceeding records set during Tropical Storm Irene in 2011. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Federal Emergency Management Agency, collected and analyzed data that characterized the flood in Vermont. The data collected included peak water-surface elevations, taken from high-water marks at bridges, dams, and roads, and peak streamflow and annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs) at streamgages, lake gages, and selected ungaged locations. At 11 of the 80 streamgages with 12 to 94 years of record, the July 2023 peak streamflow was the peak of record. Ten streamgages recorded a peak streamflow with an AEP of less than or equal to 1 percent (greater than or equal to a 100-year recurrence interval). The July 2023 flood affected many of the same communities as the historical flood caused by Tropical Storm Irene in 2011. Twenty of the 45 continuous-recording streamgages running during both events recorded greater peak streamflows during the July 2023 flood than during Tropical Storm Irene in 2011. Four of the 11 U.S. Geological Survey streamgages with period-of-record maximum peak streamflows observed during the July 2023 flood had previously recorded their maximum period-of-record peak streamflows during Tropical Storm Irene. There were 17 rivers in Vermont that were surveyed for high-water marks during both Tropical Storm Irene and the July 2023 flood. On those 17 rivers, a total of 103 sites contained surveyed high-water marks for both events. Thirty-two of these sites had higher surveyed elevations for the July 2023 flood than Tropical Storm Irene, including Black River in Newport, Black River in Springfield, Jewell Brook, Middlebury River, Missisquoi River, Ottauquechee River, Otter Creek, Wells River, Whetstone Brook, and Winooski River. Peak water-surface elevations were not collected on the Lamoille River in 2011. Federal Emergency Management Agency flood insurance studies were evaluated in the context of the July 2023 flood. Peak streamflows at streamgages and nearby locations were assessed to determine the influence of the July 2023 flood on the AEPs used in past studies. Overall, 21 of 26 streamflow-computation locations in the flood insurance studies had more than a 10 percent difference in the 1-percent AEP streamflow. A hydraulic evaluation of surveyed water-surface elevations following the July 2023 flood was compared with the AEP profiles from past studies. Four of the 10 streamgages analyzed had poor alignment between the AEPs of the observed streamflows and the AEPs of the observed peak water-surface elevations as computed from flood insurance studies.

Vermont↗
USGS2003

Sources of global warming of the upper ocean on decadal period scales

Recent studies find global climate variability in the upper ocean and lower atmosphere during the twentieth century dominated by quasi-biennial, interannual, quasi-decadal and interdecadal signals. The quasi-decadal signal in upper ocean temperature undergoes global warming/cooling of ???0.1??C, similar to that occuring with the interannual signal (i.e., El Nin??o-Southern Oscillation), both signals dominated by global warming/cooling in the tropics. From the National Centers for Environmental Prediction troposphere reanalysis and Scripps Institution of Oceanography upper ocean temperature reanalysis we examine the quasi-decadal global tropical diabetic heat storage (DHS) budget from 1975 to 2000. We find the anomalous DHS warming tendency of 0.3-0.9 W m-2 driven principally by a downward global tropical latent-plus-sensible heat flux anomaly into the ocean, overwhelming the tendency by weaker upward shortwave-minus-longwave heat flux anomaly to drive an anomalous DHS cooling tendency. During the peak quasi-decadal warming the estimated dissipation of DHS anomaly of 0.2-0.5 W m-2 into the deep ocean and a similar loss to the overlying atmosphere through air-sea heat flux anomaly are balanced by a decrease in the net poleward Ekman heat advection out of the tropics of 0.4-0.7 W m-2. This scenario is nearly the opposite of that accounting for global tropical warming during the El Nin??o. These diagnostics confirm that even though the global quasi-decadal signal is phase-locked to the 11-year signal in the Sun's surface radiative forcing of ???0.1 W m-2, the anomalous global tropical DHS tendency cannot be driven by it directly.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans↗