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At least 343 records · Page 19Linked to original sources
USGS2016

Daniel Goodman’s empirical approach to Bayesian statistics

Bayesian statistics, in contrast to classical statistics, uses probability to represent uncertainty about the state of knowledge. Bayesian statistics has often been associated with the idea that knowledge is subjective and that a probability distribution represents a personal degree of belief. Dr. Daniel Goodman considered this viewpoint problematic for issues of public policy. He sought to ground his Bayesian approach in data, and advocated the construction of a prior as an empirical histogram of “similar” cases. In this way, the posterior distribution that results from a Bayesian analysis combined comparable previous data with case-specific current data, using Bayes’ formula. Goodman championed such a data-based approach, but he acknowledged that it was difficult in practice. If based on a true representation of our knowledge and uncertainty, Goodman argued that risk assessment and decision-making could be an exact science, despite the uncertainties. In his view, Bayesian statistics is a critical component of this science because a Bayesian analysis produces the probabilities of future outcomes. Indeed, Goodman maintained that the Bayesian machinery, following the rules of conditional probability, offered the best legitimate inference from available data. We give an example of an informative prior in a recent study of Steller sea lion spatial use patterns in Alaska.

PeerJ↗
USGS2019

Negative frequency-dependent foraging behaviour in a generalist herbivore (Alces alces) and its stabilizing influence on food-web dynamics

1. Resource selection is widely appreciated to be context‐dependent and shaped by both biological and abiotic factors. However, few studies have empirically assessed the extent to which selective foraging behaviour is dynamic and varies in response to environmental conditions for free‐ranging animal populations. 2. Here, we assessed the extent that forage selection fluctuated in response to different environmental conditions for a free‐ranging herbivore, moose (Alces alces), in Isle Royale National Park, over a 10‐year period. More precisely, we assessed how moose selection for coniferous versus deciduous forage in winter varied between geographic regions and in relation to (a) the relative frequency of forage types in the environment (e.g. frequency‐dependent foraging behaviour), (b) moose abundance, (c) predation rate (by grey wolves) and (d) snow depth. These factors are potentially important for their influence on the energetics of foraging. We also built a series of food‐chain models to assess the influence of dynamic foraging strategies on the stability of food webs. 3. Our analysis indicates that moose exhibited negative frequency dependence, by selectively exploiting rare resources. Frequency‐dependent foraging was further mediated by density‐dependent processes, which are likely to be predation, moose abundance or some combination of both. In particular, frequency dependence was weaker in years when predation risk was high (i.e. when the ratio of moose to wolves was relatively low). Selection for conifers was also slightly weaker during deep snow years. 4. The food‐chain analysis indicates that the type of frequency‐dependent foraging strategy exhibited by herbivores had important consequences for the stability of ecological communities. In particular, the dynamic foraging strategy that we observed in the empirical analysis (i.e. negative frequency dependence being mediated by density‐dependent processes) was associated with more stable food web dynamics compared to fixed foraging strategies. 5. The results of this study indicated that forage selection is a complex ecological process, varying in response to both biological (predation and moose density) and abiotic factors (snow depth) and over relatively small spatial scales (between regions). This study also provides a useful framework for assessing the influence of other aspects of foraging behaviour on the stability of food web dynamics.

Michigan↗
USGS2023

Updated decision analysis to inform multi-species salmonine management in Lake Michigan

The recreational fishery for salmonine species in Lake Michigan (lake trout, Chinook salmon, coho salmon, steelhead, and brown trout) is largely maintained through stocking. Decisions about how many of each species to stock require an understanding of how to maintain a sustainable balance of predators (salmonine species) to prey (alewife) in the lake. The current models used to make these decisions can estimate the ratio of Chinook salmon to alewife in the lake. However, the Lake Michigan Committee’s new stocking strategy aims to incorporate the other salmonine species into this predator-prey ratio. We used structured decision making to evaluate potential stocking strategies. We worked with fishery stakeholders and members of the Lake Michigan Committee, conducted participatory modeling to forecast outcomes of stocking scenarios using updated information on fish movement and feeding, and evaluated the risk of these stocking strategies. Most of the stocking practices we evaluated resulted in a high risk of large declines in alewife abundance, negatively affecting future salmon fisheries. The forecasts were substantially more pessimistic than those resulting from a similar analysis conducted a decade earlier, apparently due to more recent alewife assessments indicating lower alewife productivity (recruits per spawner). Alewife recruitment dynamics is an area of substantial uncertainty, with apparently large consequences for management; decision makers on Lake Michigan would benefit from greater understanding of alewife recruitment dynamics to reduce this uncertainty when accounting for risks.

Lake Michigan↗
USGS2015

Integrated risk and recovery monitoring of ecosystem restorations on contaminated sites

Ecological restorations of contaminated sites balance the human and ecological risks of residual contamination with the benefits of ecological recovery and the return of lost ecological function and ecosystem services. Risk and recovery are interrelated dynamic conditions, changing as remediation and restoration activities progress through implementation into long-term management and ecosystem maturation. Monitoring restoration progress provides data critical to minimizing residual contaminant risk and uncertainty, while measuring ecological advancement toward recovery goals. Effective monitoring plans are designed concurrently with restoration plan development and implementation and are focused on assessing the effectiveness of activities performed in support of restoration goals for the site. Physical, chemical, and biotic measures characterize progress toward desired structural and functional ecosystem components of the goals. Structural metrics, linked to ecosystem functions and services, inform restoration practitioners of work plan modifications or more substantial adaptive management actions necessary to maintain desired recovery. Monitoring frequency, duration, and scale depend on specific attributes and goals of the restoration project. Often tied to restoration milestones, critical assessment of monitoring metrics ensures attainment of risk minimization and ecosystem recovery. Finally, interpretation and communication of monitoring findings inform and engage regulators, other stakeholders, the scientific community, and the public. Because restoration activities will likely cease before full ecosystem recovery, monitoring endpoints should demonstrate risk reduction and a successional trajectory toward the condition established in the restoration goals. A detailed assessment of the completed project's achievements, as well as unrealized objectives, attained through project monitoring, will determine if contaminant risk has been minimized, if injured resources have recovered, and if ecosystem services have been returned. Such retrospective analysis will allow better planning for future restoration goals and strengthen the evidence base for quantifying injuries and damages at other sites in the future.

Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management↗
USGS2014

An approach for filtering hyperbolically positioned underwater acoustic telemetry data with position precision estimates

Background Telemetry systems that estimate animal positions with hyperbolic positioning algorithms also provide a technology-specific estimate of position precision (e.g., horizontal position error (HPE) for the VEMCO positioning system). Position precision estimates (e.g., dilution of precision for a global positioning system (GPS)) have been used extensively to identify and remove positions with unacceptable measurement error in studies of terrestrial and surfacing aquatic animals such as turtles and seals. Few underwater acoustic telemetry studies report using position precision estimates to filter data in accordance with explicit data quality objectives because the relationship between the precision estimate and measurement error is not understood or not evaluated. A four-step filtering approach which incorporates data-filtering principles developed for GPS tracking of terrestrial animals is demonstrated. HPE was evaluated for its effectiveness to remove uncertain fish positions acquired from a new underwater fine-scale passive acoustic monitoring system. Results Four filtering objectives were identified based on the need for three sequential future analyses and four data quality criteria were developed for evaluating the performance of individual filters (step 1). The unfiltered, baseline position confidence from known-position test tags was considered to determine if filtering was necessary (step 2). An HPE filter cutoff of 8 was selected to meet the four criteria (step 3), and it was determined that one analysis may need to be adjusted for use with this dataset. The data quality objectives, criteria, and filter selection rationale were reported (step 4). Conclusions The use of position precision estimates that reflect the confidence in the positioning process should be considered prior to the use of biological filters that rely on a priori expectations of the subject’s movement capacities and tendencies. Position confidence goals should be determined based upon the needs of the research questions and analysis requirements versus arbitrary selection, in which filters of previous studies are adopted. Data filtering with this approach ensures that data quality is sufficient for the selected analyses and presents the opportunity to adjust or identify a different analysis in the event that the requisite precision was not attained. Ignoring these steps puts a practitioner at risk of reporting errant findings.

Animal Biotelemetry↗
USGS2025

Developing a probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment framework for Pacific sources: USGS Powell Center meeting summary

Multi-organizational principal investigators formed a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Powell Center Working Group (WG), Tsunami Source Standardization for Hazards Mitigation in the United States, to develop a comprehensive series of sources capable of generating tsunamis that could impact U.S. state and territory coastal areas using probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA). PTHA results are commonly used to provide consistent tsunami hazard information for use in engineering and risk assessment and, to a lesser extent, hazard response planning. Following an initial weeklong planning meeting in April 2018, designed to establish the WG’s scope, a series of weeklong meetings devoted to aspects of tsunami hazards placed emphasis on assessment of various tsunami sources, including subduction zones in Alaska, the Atlantic and Caribbean, Cascadia, and the Pacific Basin, as well as landslides in Alaska, the Atlantic, and the Caribbean. The final meeting in the series discussed tsunami sources from crustal faults. These meetings, each with a regional geographic focus, were designed to incorporate reviews and feedback from subject matter experts (SMEs) in academia, private industry, and federal, state, and local governmental organizations. Incorporating consensus from SMEs is important because the results derived from the tsunami source models will be used to inform the public about potential hazards from tsunamis related to safety concerns. This paper describes the USGS Powell Center meeting in March 2023, devoted specifically to developing a PTHA for tsunami sources in the Pacific Ocean Basin other than the Alaska–Aleutian and Cascadia subduction zones that were addressed during previous WG meetings.

Environmental & Engineering Geoscience↗
USGS1978

Documentation of potential for surface faulting related to ground-water withdrawal in Las Vegas Valley, Nevada

Leveling data collected in Las Vegas Valley are compatible with the interpretation that ongoing land-surface displacements related to ground-water withdrawal may be precursory to fault offset of the land surface. Zones of potential faulting intersect regions of intense urban development. The degree of risk and the potential economic consequences from possible surface faulting cannot be assessed adequately without additional data and analysis of the relation between surface faulting and ground-water withdrawal.

Nevada↗
USGS1997

Gas hydrate resources of northern Alaska

Large amounts of natural gas, composed mainly of methane, can occur in arctic sedimentary basins in the form of gas hydrates under appropriate temperature and pressure conditions. Gas hydrates are solids, composed of rigid cages of water molecules that trap molecules of gas. These substances are regarded as a potential unconventional source of natural gas because of their enormous gas-storage capacity. Most published gas hydrate resource estimates are highly simplified and based on limited geological data. The gas hydrate resource assessment for northern Alaska presented in this paper is based on a "play analysis" scheme, in which geological factors controlling the accumulation and preservation of gas hydrates are individually evaluated and risked for each hydrate play. This resource assessment identified two gas hydrate plays; the in-place gas resources within the gas hydrates of northern Alaska are estimated to range from 6.7 to 66.8 trillion cubic metres of gas (236 to 2,357 trillion cubic feet of gas), at the 0.50 and 0.05 probability levels respectively. The mean in-place hydrate resource estimate for northern Alaska is calculated to be 16.7 trillion cubic metres of gas (590 trillion cubic feet of gas). If this assessment is valid, the amount of natural gas stored as gas hydrates in northern Alaska could be almost seven times larger then the estimated total remaining recoverable conventional natural gas resources in the entire United States.

Alaska↗
USGS2018

Extinction risk and conservation options for Maui Parrotbill, an endangered Hawaiian honeycreeper

Extinction rates for island birds around the world have been historically high. For forest passerines, the Hawaiian archipelago has suffered some of the highest extinction rates and reintroduction is a conservation tool that can be used to prevent the extinction of some of the remaining endangered species. Population viability analyses can be used to assess risks to vulnerable populations and evaluate the relative benefits of conservation strategies. Here we present a population viability analysis to assess the long-term viability for Maui parrotbill(s) (Kiwikiu) Pseudonestor xanthophrys, a federally endangered passerine on the Hawaiian island of Maui. Contrary to indications from population monitoring, our results indicate Maui parrotbills may be unlikely to persist beyond 25 years. Our modeling suggests female mortality as a primary factor driving this decline. To evaluate and compare management options involving captive rearing and translocation strategies we made a female-only stage-structured, meta-population simulation model. Due to the low reproductive potential of Maui parrotbills in captivity, the number of individuals (~ 20% of the global population) needed to source a reintroduction solely from captive reared birds is unrealistic. A reintroduction strategy that incorporates a minimal contribution from captivity and instead translocates mostly wild individuals was found to be the most feasible management option. Habitat is being restored on leeward east Maui, which may provide more favorable climate and habitat conditions and promote increased reproductive output. Our model provides managers with benchmarks for fecundity and survival needed to ensure reintroduction success, and highlights the importance of establishing a new population in potentially favorable habitat to ensure long-term persistence.

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management↗
USGS2025

Peak streamflow trends in Montana and northern Wyoming and their relation to changes in climate, water years 1921–2020

Frequency analysis on annual peak streamflow (hereinafter, peak flow) is essential to water-resources management applications, including critical structure design (for example, bridges and culverts) and floodplain mapping. Nonstationarity is a statistical property of a peak-flow series such that the distributional properties (the mean, variance, or skew) change either gradually (monotonic trend) or abruptly (shift, step change or change point) through time. Not incorporating or accounting for observed nonstationarity into peak-flow frequency analysis might result in a poor representation of the true probability of large floods and thus misrepresent the actual flood risks to life and property. This report summarizes how hydroclimatic variability might affect the temporal and spatial distributions of peak-flow data in the State of Montana (and northern Wyoming) and is part of a larger study to document peak-flow nonstationarity and hydroclimatic changes across a nine-State region consisting of Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin. A wide range of analyses and statistical approaches are applied to document the primary mechanisms controlling floods and characterize temporal changes in hydroclimatic variables and peak flows. This study was completed in cooperation with the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation. The purpose of this report is to characterize temporal and spatial patterns of nonstationarity in peak flows and hydroclimatology in Montana and northern Wyoming. In this evaluation, peak-flow, daily streamflow, and model-simulated gridded climatic data were examined for monotonic trends, change points, and other statistical properties that might indicate changing climatic and environmental conditions. This report includes background information on the study area, the history of U.S. Geological Survey peak-flow data collection and frequency analysis in Montana, and the review of research relating to hydroclimatic variability and change in Montana. This study might help provide a framework for addressing potential nonstationarity issues in peak-flow frequency updates that commonly are completed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with other agencies throughout the Nation. The analytical structure of this study includes analyses of monotonic trends and change points in numerous hydroclimatic variables in assigned 30-, 50-, 75-, and 100-year analysis periods. For Montana and part of Wyoming, the 30-, 50-, 75, and 100-year analyses included 157, 70, 48, and 12 streamgages, respectively. For those streamgages, nonstationarities were analyzed in the following variables: (1) climatic variables, including annual and seasonal (winter, spring, summer, and fall) temperature and precipitation; (2) daily streamflow variables, including the annual center of volume duration, annual center of volume median, and peaks over threshold with a mean of four events per year; and (3) annual peak-flow variables, including peak-flow timing and magnitude. A likelihood approach was used to express statistical confidence and assign the nonstationarity results as likely upward or downward (highest statistical confidence), somewhat likely upward or downward (less statistical confidence), or about as likely as not (little statistical confidence; hereinafter, neutral). For the nonstationarity analyses of the climatic, daily streamflow, and peak-flow variables, the results are presented in detail and discussed with respect to statewide patterns and geographic variability. For each of the 30-, 50-, and 75-year analyses, peak-flow change-point and monotonic trend analyses were compiled for streamgages classified with likely downward or likely upward trends. For those streamgages, the associated basin characteristics and nonstationarity results for peak-flow timing, daily streamflow, and climatic variables were investigated and statistically compared to discern associations among other variables that might contribute to the peak-flow nonstationarity results. The 50- and 75-year peak-flow nonstationarities identified in this study are mostly downward, in association with mostly upward temperature and potential evapotranspiration:precipitation monotonic trends. For the 50-, 75-, and 100-year analyses, the peak-flow change points are predominantly downward and are concentrated in the 1970s and 1980s, which indicates general consistency among the longer trend periods. These findings are in association with substantial research documenting globally rising temperature and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations that might be largely attributed to anthropogenic activities. Anthropogenic effects might represent long-term (on the order of several decades to more than a century) climate changes that might happen within highly variable natural climate fluctuations. Several paleo studies in the north-central United States have indicated that hydroclimatic extremes (that is, low- and high-streamflow conditions) before European settlement have been outside of extremes since the 1900s. Depending on the interactions of anthropogenic effects and natural climate variability, extreme high-streamflow conditions might occur in the future, even in the presence of long-term downward peak-flow trends.

Montana, Wyoming↗
USGS2012

A vectorial capacity product to monitor changing malaria transmission potential in epidemic regions of Africa

Rainfall and temperature are two of the major factors triggering malaria epidemics in warm semi-arid (desert-fringe) and high altitude (highland-fringe) epidemic risk areas. The ability of the mosquitoes to transmit Plasmodium spp. is dependent upon a series of biological features generally referred to as vectorial capacity. In this study, the vectorial capacity model (VCAP) was expanded to include the influence of rainfall and temperature variables on malaria transmission potential. Data from two remote sensing products were used to monitor rainfall and temperature and were integrated into the VCAP model. The expanded model was tested in Eritrea and Madagascar to check the viability of the approach. The analysis of VCAP in relation to rainfall, temperature and malaria incidence data in these regions shows that the expanded VCAP correctly tracks the risk of malaria both in regions where rainfall is the limiting factor and in regions where temperature is the limiting factor. The VCAP maps are currently offered as an experimental resource for testing within Malaria Early Warning applications in epidemic prone regions of sub-Saharan Africa. User feedback is currently being collected in preparation for further evaluation and refinement of the VCAP model.

Journal of Tropical Medicine↗
USGS2018

Landscape drivers and social dynamics shaping microbial contamination risk in three Maya communities in southern Belize, Central America

Land transformation can have cascading effects on hydrology, water quality, and human users of water resources, with serious implications for human health. An interdisciplinary analysis is presented, whereby remote-sensing data of changing land use and cover are related to surface hydrology and microbial contamination in domestic use areas of three indigenous Maya communities in Belize, Central America. We asked whether a departure from traditional land-use patterns toward intensified use led to consequences for hydrology and microbial contamination of drinking water, and investigated how social factors in the three study communities may act to ameliorate human health risks associated with water contamination. We showed that a departure from traditional land use to more intensive cultivation and grazing led to significantly increased surface water runoff, and intensified microbial contamination of surface water sources sometimes used for drinking. Results further suggested that groundwater contamination was widespread regardless of land cover, due to the widespread presence of pit latrines, pigs, and cows on the landscape, and that human users were consistently subject to health risks from potential pathogens as a result. Given that both surface and groundwater resources were found to be contaminated, it is important that water distribution systems (piped water from tanks; shallow and deep wells) be monitored for Escherichia coli and treated when necessary to reduce or eliminate contaminants and protect public health. Results of interviews suggested that strengthened capacity within the communities to monitor and treat centralized drinking water sources and increase water treatment at the point of use could lead to reduced risk to water consumers.

Water↗
USGS2025

Where to restore and conserve? A regional benefit cost analysis of coral reef protection and restoration for coastal flood resilience

Momentum is growing for the management of coral reefs as a strategy to reduce climate risks in tropical coastlines. Yet, quantification of the life-time costs, impacts, and benefits remains limited. This study provides one of the first rigorous, spatially explicit, regional-scale Benefit:Cost Analyses (BCA) for coral reef restoration and was designed to meet the BCA requirements of major hazard mitigation funding and programs. This study simulates coastal flooding using a hydrodynamic model under different scenarios representing current coral reef conditions, reef degradation, and reef restoration. These coastal flood maps are used to estimate socioeconomic damages, which are included in a BCA to assess cost-effectiveness and priority areas for coral reef conservation and restoration. The United States Virgin Islands is used as a case study given recent impacts from storms and their new policy that declares reefs as natural infrastructure. The results show that flood risk across the islands of Saint Croix, Saint John, and Saint Thomas is $51.4 million USD per year. Annually, coral reefs prevent flood damages to 481 people and $43.6 million USD of infrastructure, which represents 87 % of the flood risk. These results identify the communities that could receive the greatest benefits from coral conservation and restoration, which overlap significantly. Coral reef restoration is found to be a cost-effective strategy for flood mitigation although how reefs are restored matters. Hybrid coral reef restoration provides greater flood mitigation benefits than ecological restoration, but its cost-effectiveness is overall lower given its greater costs. Many coastal areas have benefit:cost ratios exceeding 1.5, which complies with typical government agencies’ requirements for accessing hazard mitigation funds. This valuation framework helps provide rigorous regional-scale quantification of nature-based coastal protection solutions for coastal risk management decisions.

Journal of Environmental Management↗
USGS2024

Particle morphology and elemental analysis of lung tissue from post-9/11 military personnel with biopsy-proven lung disease

The relationship between exposure to inhaled inorganic particulate matter and risk for deployment-related lung disease in military personnel is unclear due in part to difficulties characterizing individual exposure to airborne hazards. We evaluated the association between self-reported deployment exposures and particulate matter (PM) contained in lung tissue from previously deployed personnel with lung disease (“deployers”). The PM in deployer tissues was compared to normal lung tissue PM using the analytical results of scanning electron microscopy and inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. The majority of PM phases for both the deployers and the controls were sub-micrometer in size and were compositionally classified as aluminum and zirconium oxides, carbonaceous particles, iron oxides, titanium oxides, silica, other silicates, and other metals. The proportion of silica and other silicates was significantly higher in the retained dust from military veterans with biopsy-confirmed deployment-related lung disease compared to the control subjects. Within the deployer population, those who had combat jobs had a higher total PM burden, though the difference was not statistically significant. These findings have important implications for understanding the role of inhaled inorganic dusts in the risk for lung injury in previously deployed military veterans.

International Journal of Enviornmental Research an↗
USGS2023

Riparian vegetation response amid variable climate conditions across the Upper Gila River watershed: Informing Tribal restoration priorities

Riparian systems across the Southwest United States are extremely valuable for the human and ecological communities that engage with them. However, they have experienced substantial changes and stresses over the past century, including non-native vegetation expansion, vegetation die-offs, and increased fire activity. Vegetation management approaches, such as ecological restoration, may address some of these stressors as well as reduce the risk of future impacts. We apply remote sensing to inform restoration priorities along the upper Gila River within the San Carlos Apache Reservation and Upper Gila River watershed. First, we develop a spatially and temporally explicit trend analysis across three observed climate periods (1985–1993, 1993–2014, 2014–2021) using the Landsat-derived indices to quantify changes in riparian vegetation conditions. These maps can be used to identify areas potentially more at risk for degradation. Second, we analyze changes in riparian vegetation within a climate framework to better understand trends and the potential effect of climate change. Vegetation greenness has largely increased throughout the watershed despite intensifying drought conditions across our study period, though areas within the lower watershed have shown increased stress and higher rates of wildfire and other disturbances over the past 5-years. Nevertheless, small-scale restoration activities appear to show improving vegetation conditions, suggesting efficacy of these restoration activities. Results from this study may be integrated with restoration objectives to develop a restoration plan that will help riparian vegetation communities adapt to change.

Arizona↗
USGS2019

China’s domestic and foreign influence in the global cobalt supply chain

In addition to increasing interest in the supply risk of minerals produced in China, there is also concern that China’s efforts to mitigate mineral supply risk—through foreign direct investment—may limit mineral availability for other countries in the short-term (due to production capacity constraints). However, little is publicly known about the quantity of global mineral production that is subject to Chinese ownership-influence or how this influence may mitigate China’s import reliance for mineral commodities. In this analysis, we estimate China’s ownership-share of foreign production for cobalt mine and intermediate materials (in the year 2016), as well as the net import reliance of China’s cobalt refinery industry—which is then adjusted to reflect China’s ownership-share of foreign production. First, we find that China’s foreign cobalt ownership is predominantly in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the largest source of cobalt mine and intermediate imports for China’s growing cobalt refinery industry. Second, foreign direct investment provided China with ownership-influence over roughly 29% of its cobalt mine and intermediate imports in 2016—which may have reduced the exposure of China’s refinery industry to supply risk from a net import reliance of 97% (on cobalt mine and intermediate materials) to an adjusted net import reliance of 68%. Third, China’s global production share jumps from 2% to 14% (for cobalt mine material) and from 11% to 33% (for cobalt intermediate material) when China’s foreign ownership production share is added to China’s domestic production share. Fourth, over time China’s foreign direct investment appears to have targeted facilities with progressively larger cobalt production capacities. Finally, China’s global production share increases as cobalt material moves downstream (i.e. mine, 14%; intermediate, 33%; refined, 50% in 2016). If a primary motivation of China’s Going Out Strategy is to secure natural resources, then China’s global production share may be reserved for Chinese manufacturers. This analysis may, therefore, indicate that critical mineral availability and supply risk (for countries other than China) may not be confined to minerals produced in China.

Resources Policy↗
USGS2012

An economic approach to assessing import policies designed to prevent the arrival of invasive species: the case of Puccinia psidii in Hawai'i

Since its first documented introduction to Hawai‘i in 2005, the rust fungus Puccinia psidii has already severely damaged Syzygium jambos (Indian rose apple) trees and the federally endangered Eugenia koolauensis (nioi). Fortunately, the particular strain has yet to cause serious damage to Metrosideros polymorpha (‘ōhi‘a), which comprises roughly 80% of the state's native forests and covers 400,000 ha. Although the rust has affected less than 5% of Hawaii's ‘ōhi‘a trees thus far, the introduction of more virulent strains and the genetic evolution of the current strain are still possible. Since the primary pathway of introduction is Myrtaceae plant material imported from outside the state, potential damage to ‘ōhi‘a can be minimized by regulating those high-risk imports. We discuss the economic impact on the state's florist, nursery, landscaping, and forest plantation industries of a proposed rule that would ban the import of non-seed Myrtaceae plant material and require a 1-year quarantine of seeds. Our analysis suggests that the benefits to the forest plantation industry of a complete ban on non-seed material would likely outweigh the costs to other affected sectors, even without considering the reduction in risk to ‘ōhi‘a. Incorporating the value of ‘ōhi‘a protection would further increase the benefit–cost ratio in favor of an import ban.

Hawai'i↗
USGS2021

Rigorously valuing the coastal hazard risks reduction provided by potential coral reef restoration in Florida and Puerto Rico

The restoration of coastal habitats, particularly coral reefs, can reduce risks by decreasing the exposure of coastal communities to flooding hazards. In the United States, the protective services provided by coral reefs were recently assessed in social and economic terms, with the annual protection provided by U.S. coral reefs off the coasts of the State of Florida and the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico estimated to be more than 9,800 people and $859 million (2010 U.S. dollars). Hurricanes Irma and Maria in 2017 caused widespread damage to coral reefs in the State of Florida and the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico. Here we combine engineering, ecologic, geospatial, social, and economic data and tools to provide a rigorous valuation of where potential coral reef restoration could decrease the hazard faced by Florida and Puerto Rico’s reef-fronted coastal communities. The three restoration scenarios considered: (1) Ecological restoration, ‘E25’, which assumes planting 0.25-meter (m)-high corals on a (cross-shore) 25-m-wide reef; (2) Structural plus ecological, ‘S25’, which assumes emplacing a 1.00-m high structure with 0.25-m high corals on top on a 25 m wide reef; and (3) structural plus ecological, ‘S05’, which assumes emplacing a 1.00-m high structure with 0.25-m high corals on top on a 5 m wide reef. Planted corals are assumed to increase hydrodynamic roughness, thereby dissipating incident wave energy and decreasing flooding potential. We used a standardized approach to ‘place’ potential restoration projects throughout the whole (linear) extent of reefs bordering Florida and Puerto Rico to identify where coral reef restoration could be useful for meeting flood reduction benefits. We always sited potential restoration projects within the existing distribution of reefs even though many sites were far (kilometers [km]) offshore and some sites were relatively deep (up to 7 m depth). We followed risk-based valuation approaches to map flood zones at 10-square-meter resolution along all 980 km of Florida and Puerto’s Rico reef-lined shorelines for the three potential coral reef restoration scenarios and compare them to the flood zones without coral reef restoration. We quantified the potential coastal flood risk reduction provided by coral reef restoration using the latest information from the U.S. Census Bureau, Federal Emergency Management Agency, and Bureau of Economic Analysis for return-interval storm events. Using the damages associated with each storm probability, we also calculate the change in annual expected damages, a measure of the annual protection gained because of coral reef restoration. We found that the benefits of reef restoration off Florida and Puerto Rico are spatially highly variable. In most areas, we found little or no benefit from reef restoration (for example, restoration sites were far offshore or deep). However, there were a number of key areas where reef restoration could have substantial benefits for flood risk reduction. In particular, we estimated the protection gained by Florida and Puerto Rico’s coral reefs from coral reef restoration to result in: Avoided flooding to more than 5.6 square kilometers (2.16 square miles) of land annually; Avoided flooding affecting more than 3,100 people annually; Avoided direct damages of more than $124.2 million to more than 890 buildings annually; and Avoided indirect damages to more $148.7 million in economic activity owing to housing and business damage annually. Thus, the annual value of flood risk reduction provided by potential coral reef restoration in Florida and Puerto Rico is more than 3,100 people and $272.9 million (2010 U.S. dollars) in economic activity. These data provide stakeholders and decision makers with a spatially explicit, rigorous valuation of how, where, and when potential coral reef restoration in Florida and Puerto Rico can increase critical coastal storm flood reduction benefits. These results help identify areas where reef management, recovery, and restoration could potentially help reduce the risk to, and increase the resiliency of, Florida and Puerto Rico’s coastal communities.

Florida↗