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USGS2015

Past and future warming of a deep European lake (Lake Lugano): What are the climatic drivers?

We used four decades (1972–2013) of temperature data from Lake Lugano, Switzerland and Italy, to address the hypotheses that: [i] the lake has been warming; [ii] part of the warming reflects global trends and is independent from climatic oscillations and [iii] the lake will continue to warm until the end of the 21st century. During the time spanned by our data, the surface waters of the lake (0–5 m) warmed at rates of 0.2–0.9 °C per decade, depending on season. The temperature of the deep waters (50-m bottom) displayed a rising trend in a meromictic basin of the lake and a sawtooth pattern in the other basin, which is holomictic. Long-term variation in surfacewater temperature correlated to global warming and multidecadal variation in two climatic oscillations, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the East Atlantic Pattern (EA).However, we did not detect an influence of the EA on the lake's temperature (as separate from the effect of global warming). Moreover, the effect of the AMO, estimated to a maximum of +1 °C, was not sufficient to explain the observed temperature increase (+2–3 °C in summer). Based on regional climate projections, we predicted that the lake will continue to warm at least until the end of the 21st century. Our results strongly suggest that the warming of Lake Lugano is tied to globalclimate change. To sustain current ecosystem conditions in Lake Lugano, we suggest that manage- ment plans that curtail eutrophication and (or) mitigation of global warming be pursued.

Lake Lugano↗

USGS2026

Population trends of dabbling ducks wintering in the alluvial valleys of Arkansas and Mississippi

Population abundances, distributions, and compositions across a diversity of taxa are changing, partly as a consequence of human-induced global modifications. Although linking population fluctuations to anthropogenic-induced alterations can be challenging, it is increasingly clear that long-term monitoring is critical to understanding changing populations. For waterfowl, concerns over recent declines in breeding populations or possible redistribution from using traditional wintering grounds for some species support continued monitoring of regional populations. To further understand population trends on traditional wintering grounds, we examined abundance trends over time within the Mississippi and Arkansas portions of the Mississippi Alluvial Valley, using two sources of data: systematic aerial surveys and citizen science data. We found great annual variability in rates of population change ( r ranging from −1.04 to 0.71) in five species of dabbling ducks. Despite this annual variation, green-winged teal Anas carolinensis , mallards Anas platyrhynchos , northern pintail Anas acuta , and northern shoveler Spatula clypeata showed no significant trends in population size over approximately 15 years in Mississippi and Arkansas, but gadwall Mareca strepera showed a 4% annual increase in the citizen science data for Mississippi. Despite substantial variation in annual abundance, the timing of peak abundance was remarkably consistent from year to year, with peaks typically occurring in January. Our results demonstrate that autumn–winter population numbers of dabbling ducks can be quite variable interannually, but they lack a consistent trend in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley during the past two decades. Going forward, investigation into how citizen science data could be leveraged to increase the precision of trends within this landscape might be of benefit, and sampling efforts could perhaps be added towards the latter portion of the wintering period. As populations continue to adjust in a changing world, maintaining monitoring surveys in regions important to waterfowl is an effective and important means of evaluating trends.

Arkansas, Illinois, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississip↗

USGS2019

Migration triggers in a large herbivore: Galapagos giant tortoises navigating resources gradients on volcanoes

To understand how migratory behavior evolved and to predict the future of migratory species in the face of global environmental change it is important to quantify intra- and inter-individual variation in migratory behavior. Intra-individual variation includes behavioral response to changing environmental conditions and hence behavioral plasticity in the context of novel conditions. Inter-individual variation determines the degree of variation on which selection can act and the rate of evolutionary response to changes in average and extreme environmental conditions. Here we focus on variation in the partial migratory behavior of Galapagos giant tortoises ( Chelonoidis spp.), which exhibit high fidelity to migratory routes over many years. We evaluate the extent and mechanisms by which tortoises adjust migration timing in response to varying annual environmental conditions, integrating movement data within a bioenergetic model of tortoise migration to quantify the fitness consequences of migration timing. We find strong inter-individual variation in the timing of migration, which was not affected by environmental conditions prevailing at the time of migration but rather by marginal expectations estimated from multi-annual averaged conditions, leading to an average annual loss in efficiency of ~15% relative to optimal timing based on year-specific conditions. These results point towards a limited ability of tortoises to adjust the timing of their migrations based on prevailing (and, by extension, future) conditions, suggesting that the adaptability of tortoise migratory behavior to changing conditions is predicated more on past “normal” conditions than responsive to current, changing conditions. Our work offers insights into the level of environmental-tuning in migratory behavior and a general framework for future research across taxa.

Galapagos Islands↗

USGS2017

Emulation of long-term changes in global climate: application to the late Pliocene and future

Multi-millennial transient simulations of climate changes have a range of important applications, such as for investigating key geologic events and transitions for which high-resolution palaeoenvironmental proxy data are available, or for projecting the long-term impacts of future climate evolution on the performance of geological repositories for the disposal of radioactive wastes. However, due to the high computational requirements of current fully coupled general circulation models (GCMs), long-term simulations can generally only be performed with less complex models and/or at lower spatial resolution. In this study, we present novel longterm “continuous” projections of climate evolution based on the output from GCMs, via the use of a statistical emulator. The emulator is calibrated using ensembles of GCM simulations, which have varying orbital configurations and atmospheric CO2 concentrations and enables a variety of investigations of long-term climate change to be conducted, which would not be possible with other modelling techniques on the same temporal and spatial scales. To illustrate the potential applications, we apply the emulator to the late Pliocene (by modelling surface air temperature – SAT), comparing its results with palaeo-proxy data for a number of global sites, and to the next 200 kyr (thousand years) (by modelling SAT and precipitation). A range of CO2 scenarios are prescribed for each period. During the late Pliocene, we find that emulated SAT varies on an approximately precessional timescale, with evidence of increased obliquity response at times. A comparison of atmospheric CO2 concentration for this period, estimated using the proxy sea surface temperature (SST) data from different sites and emulator results, finds that relatively similar CO2 concentrations are estimated based on sites at lower latitudes, whereas higher-latitude sites show larger discrepancies. In our second illustrative application, spanning the next 200 kyr into the future, we find that SAT oscillations appear to be primarily influenced by obliquity for the first ∼ 120 kyr, whilst eccentricity is relatively low, after which precession plays a more dominant role. Conversely, variations in precipitation over the entire period demonstrate a strong precessional signal. Overall, we find that the emulator provides a useful and powerful tool for rapidly simulating the long-term evolution of climate, both past and future, due to its relatively high spatial resolution and relatively low computational cost. However, there are uncertainties associated with the approach used, including the inability of the emulator to capture deviations from a quasi-stationary response to the forcing, such as transient adjustments of the deep-ocean temperature and circulation, in addition to its limited range of fixed ice sheet configurations and its requirement for prescribed atmospheric CO2 concentrations.

Climate of the Past↗

USGS2020

A synthesis of patterns of environmental mercury inputs, exposure and effects in New York State

Mercury (Hg) pollution is an environmental problem that adversely affects human and ecosystem health at local, regional, and global scales—including within New York State. More than two-thirds of the Hg currently released to the environment originates, either directly or indirectly, from human activities. Since the early 1800s, global atmospheric Hg concentrations have increased by three- to eight-fold over natural levels. In the U.S., atmospheric emissions and point-source releases to waterways increased following industrialization into the mid-1980s. Since then, water discharges have largely been curtailed. As a result, Hg emissions, atmospheric concentrations, and deposition over the past few decades have declined across the eastern U.S. Despite these decreases, Hg pollution persists. To inform policy efforts and to advance public understanding, the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) sponsored a scientific synthesis of information on Hg in New York State. This effort includes 23 papers focused on Hg in atmospheric deposition, water, fish, and wildlife published in Ecotoxicology . New York State experiences Hg contamination largely due to atmospheric deposition. Some landscapes are inherently sensitive to Hg inputs driven by the transport of inorganic Hg to zones of methylation, the conversion of inorganic Hg to methylmercury, and the bioaccumulation and biomagnification along food webs. Mercury concentrations exceed human and ecological risk thresholds in many areas of New York State, particularly the Adirondacks, Catskills, and parts of Long Island. Mercury concentrations in some biota have declined in the Eastern Great Lakes Lowlands and the Northeastern Highlands over the last four decades, concurrent with decreases in water releases and air emissions from regional and U.S. sources. However, widespread changes have not occurred in other ecoregions of New York State. While the timing and magnitude of the response of Hg levels in biota varies, policies expected to further diminish Hg emissions should continue to decrease Hg concentrations in food webs, yielding benefits to the fish, wildlife, and people of New York State. Anticipated improvements in the Hg status of aquatic ecosystems are likely to be greatest for inland surface waters and should be roughly proportional to declines in atmospheric Hg deposition. Efforts that advance recovery from Hg pollution in recent years have yielded significant progress, but Hg remains a pollutant of concern. Indeed, due to this extensive compilation of Hg observations in biota, it appears that the extent and intensity of the contamination on the New York landscape and waterscape is greater than previously recognized. Understanding the extent of Hg contamination and recovery following decreases in atmospheric Hg deposition will require further study, underscoring the need to continue existing monitoring efforts.

New York↗

USGS2005

A comparative analysis of the Global Land Cover 2000 and MODIS land cover data sets

Accurate and up-to-date global land cover data sets are necessary for various global change research studies including climate change, biodiversity conservation, ecosystem assessment, and environmental modeling. In recent years, substantial advancement has been achieved in generating such data products. Yet, we are far from producing geospatially consistent high-quality data at an operational level. We compared the recently available Global Land Cover 2000 (GLC-2000) and MODerate resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) global land cover data to evaluate the similarities and differences in methodologies and results, and to identify areas of spatial agreement and disagreement. These two global land cover data sets were prepared using different data sources, classification systems, and methodologies, but using the same spatial resolution (i.e., 1 km) satellite data. Our analysis shows a general agreement at the class aggregate level except for savannas/shrublands, and wetlands. The disagreement, however, increases when comparing detailed land cover classes. Similarly, percent agreement between the two data sets was found to be highly variable among biomes. The identified areas of spatial agreement and disagreement will be useful for both data producers and users. Data producers may use the areas of spatial agreement for training area selection and pay special attention to areas of disagreement for further improvement in future land cover characterization and mapping. Users can conveniently use the findings in the areas of agreement, whereas users might need to verify the informaiton in the areas of disagreement with the help of secondary information. Learning from past experience and building on the existing infrastructure (e.g., regional networks), further research is necessary to (1) reduce ambiguity in land cover definitions, (2) increase availability of improved spatial, spectral, radiometric, and geometric resolution satellite data, and (3) develop advanced classification algorithms.

Remote Sensing of Environment↗

USGS2011

Forecasting climate change impacts to plant community composition in the Sonoran Desert region

Hotter and drier conditions projected for the southwestern United States can have a large impact on the abundance and composition of long-lived desert plant species. We used long-term vegetation monitoring results from 39 large plots across four protected sites in the Sonoran Desert region to determine how plant species have responded to past climate variability. This cross-site analysis identified the plant species and functional types susceptible to climate change, the magnitude of their responses, and potential climate thresholds. In the relatively mesic mesquite savanna communities, perennial grasses declined with a decrease in annual precipitation, cacti increased, and there was a reversal of the Prosopis velutina expansion experienced in the 20th century in response to increasing mean annual temperature (MAT). In the more xeric Arizona Upland communities, the dominant leguminous tree, Cercidium microphyllum, declined on hillslopes, and the shrub Fouquieria splendens decreased, especially on south- and west-facing slopes in response to increasing MAT. In the most xeric shrublands, the codominant species Larrea tridentata and its hemiparasite Krameria grayi decreased with a decrease in cool season precipitation and increased aridity, respectively. This regional-scale assessment of plant species response to recent climate variability is critical for forecasting future shifts in plant community composition, structure, and productivity.

Sonoran Desert↗

USGS2018

The North American carbon budget: Past, present, and future

This chapter nicely summarizes and synthesizes the latest scientific information on the North American carbon budget by incorporating terrestrial, anthropogenic, aquatic, and coastal margin CO 2 and CH 4 dynamics. Starting with a historical context, the chapter summarizes current understanding of the magnitudes and trends of carbon stocks and fluxes at the continental scale. It also provides a regional context by stratifying the continent to countries and climate assessment regions and discusses the societal drivers, impacts, and carbon management decisions. Knowledge gaps and research needs are also identified. This chapter is well-written and clearly organized, and provides a broad context beyond individual chapters. Some of the main ways the chapter can be improved include the following: some work is needed on the Key Findings (discussed below); the goals and objectives should be explicitly described; critical content areas missing from the chapter are interannual variability of carbon fluxes and impacts of severe and extended droughts; indicators and feedbacks are missing from Section 2.4; consistent use of units is recommended; numbers with 3-4 significant digits over-state the confidence the reader should have, and all numbers should include uncertainties. And one broader concern to note: This chapter follows the global overview in Chapter 1, where “sinks” are sinks in the cycle perturbed by anthropogenic CO 2 and CH 4 , and the assumption is that globally, the net unperturbed background sinks are zero summed across all reservoirs. Yet in this chapter, “sinks” are net fluxes out of the atmosphere, background + perturbation. For the coastal ocean, inland waters, etc.—where lateral transport is significant—these sources and sinks include background/pre-industrial fluxes that are balanced by fluxes elsewhere. These distinctions must be made clear so that the reader is not given an impression of a greater or lesser sink for anthropogenic CO 2 than is there (e.g., P74, lines 4-6).

Book chapter↗

USGS2009

Spatial and temporal variation in distribution of larval lake whitefish in eastern Lake Ontario: signs of recovery?

The lake whitefish ( Coregonus clupeaformis ) is one of the native Lake Ontario fishes that declined severely over the past century. Recent evidence of larval lake whitefish production in a historic spawning area (Chaumont Bay) might signal a recovery of this species in New York waters. We surveyed coastal and open water areas to evaluate densities and estimate total abundance of larval lake whitefish in Chaumont Bay. Other historic spawning areas and embayments with appropriate spawning and nursery habitat were also surveyed, but only a few larvae were found outside of Chaumont Bay. Lake whitefish larvae were found in every embayment sampled within Chaumont Bay, with larval densities of nearly 600/1000 m 2 in some samples. Greatest abundances occurred in the northern sectors and near the mouth of the bay. Open water densities were generally less than half that of nearshore sites. The total bay-wide estimate for 2005 was approximately 644,000 lake whitefish larvae, but dropped to 230,000–400,000 in 2006 and 2007, respectively. Mean larval growth rates (0.36 mm/day) did not differ by year, but were consistently higher in early May than in late April. Lake whitefish production in Chaumont Bay is encouraging for this species, but the cause and persistence of the decline after 2005 can be determined only by continued monitoring. Other possible bottlenecks of survival may exist at juvenile and adult stages and could significantly affect recruitment dynamics. This species is sensitive to normal climatic fluctuations and increased variability associated with global climatic change could make winter nursery conditions unfavorable for this species.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗

USGS2007

Historical Shoreline Changes at Rincon, Puerto Rico, 1936-2006

The coast from Punta Higuero to Punta Cadena in Rincon, Puerto Rico is experiencing long-term erosion. This study documents historical shoreline changes at Rincon for the period 1936-2006 and constitutes a significant expansion and revision of previous work. The study area extends approximately 8 km from Punta Higuero to Punta Cadena. Fourteen historical shoreline positions were compiled from existing data, new orthophotography, and Global Positioning System (GPS) field surveys. The study area can be divided into four distinct reaches on the basis of observed erosion rates, consistent with previous work. The coast of Reach A, from Punta Higuero to the north end of the Balneario de Rincon, is fairly stable and has a long-term (70 years) average erosion rate of -0.2 ? 0.1 m/yr. The coast of Reach B, from the Balneario de Rincon to 500 m south of the mouth of Quebrada los Ramos, has an average long-term erosion rate of -1.1 ? 0.3 m/yr. The coast of Reach C, from 500 m south of the mouth of Quebrada los Ramos to Corcega, has an average long-term erosion rate of -0.4 ? 0.2 m/yr. The coast of Reach D, from Corcega to Punta Cadena, has an average long-term change rate of -0.2 ? 0.2 m/yr. Previous work (Thieler and others, 1995) identified an apparent increase in erosion rate in Reach B that probably began between 1977 and 1987. New data and statistical analysis suggest that long-term and short-term rates of shoreline change are statistically similar. Nevertheless, the coast in Reach B is eroding at a rapid and statistically significant rate that is 2 to 10 times greater than in the other three reaches. Comparison of the 1994 and 2006 GPS shoreline positions indicates the following erosion rates occurred over the past 12 years: Reach A, -0.3 ? 0.4 m/yr; Reach B, -1.0 ? 0.4 m/yr; Reach C, -0.7 ? 0.4 m/yr; and Reach D, -0.3 ? 0.4 m/yr. Thieler and others (1995) speculated that the increased erosion rate in Reach B could be attributed to the effects of marina construction in 1983 on the local sediment budget. New data and analysis suggest, however, that other factors may be equally or perhaps more important. For example, high-resolution lidar bathymetric data collected in 2001 show a complex nearshore bathymetry that may substantially affect wave refraction, diffraction, and reflection in Reach B where erosion rates are the highest. In addition, several historical photographs dating from 1951 to 2006 show a wide array of complex wave patterns that suggest the bathymetric influence on nearshore processes to be a long-term, rather than recent, phenomenon. In addition, removal of sand from the beach system may be contributing further to the elevated erosion rates in Reach B. Development of potential options for addressing coastal erosion in Rincon was beyond the scope of this study, but the data and interpretations presented here provide a sound scientific foundation for further work to identify the causes of the increased erosion and to develop strategies to mitigate its effect.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2016

Water isotope systematics: Improving our palaeoclimate interpretations

The stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen, measured in a variety of archives, are widely used proxies in Quaternary Science. Understanding the processes that control δ18O change have long been a focus of research (e.g. Shackleton and Opdyke, 1973; Talbot, 1990 ; Leng, 2006). Both the dynamics of water isotope cycling and the appropriate interpretation of geological water-isotope proxy time series remain subjects of active research and debate. It is clear that achieving a complete understanding of the isotope systematics for any given archive type, and ideally each individual archive, is vital if these palaeo-data are to be used to their full potential, including comparison with climate model experiments of the past. Combining information from modern monitoring and process studies, climate models, and proxy data is crucial for improving our statistical constraints on reconstructions of past climate variability. As climate models increasingly incorporate stable water isotope physics, this common language should aid quantitative comparisons between proxy data and climate model output. Water-isotope palaeoclimate data provide crucial metrics for validating GCMs, whereas GCMs provide a tool for exploring the climate variability dominating signals in the proxy data. Several of the studies in this set of papers highlight how collaborations between palaeoclimate experimentalists and modelers may serve to expand the usefulness of palaeoclimate data for climate prediction in future work. This collection of papers follows the session on Water Isotope Systematics held at the 2013 AGU Fall Meeting in San Francisco. Papers in that session, the breadth of which are represented here, discussed such issues as; understanding sub-GNIP scale (Global Network for Isotopes in Precipitation, (IAEA/WMO, 2006)) variability in isotopes in precipitation from different regions, detailed examination of the transfer of isotope signals from precipitation to geological archives, and the implications of advances in understanding in these areas for the interpretation of palaeo records and proxy data – climate model comparison. Here, we briefly review these areas of research, and discuss challenges for the water isotope community in improving our ability to partition climate vs. auxiliary signals in palaeoclimate data.

Quaternary Science Reviews↗

USGS2015

Mid-Wisconsin to Holocene permafrost and landscape dynamics based on a drained lake basin core from the northern Seward Peninsula, northwest Alaska

Permafrost-related processes drive regional landscape dynamics in the Arctic terrestrial system. A better understanding of past periods indicative of permafrost degradation and aggradation is important for predicting the future response of Arctic landscapes to climate change. Here, we used a multi-proxy approach to analyse a ~ 4 m long sediment core from a drained thermokarst lake basin on the northern Seward Peninsula in western Arctic Alaska (USA). Sedimentological, biogeochemical, geochronological, micropalaeontological (ostracoda, testate amoebae) and tephra analyses were used to determine the long-term environmental Early-Wisconsin to Holocene history preserved in our core for central Beringia. Yedoma accumulation dominated throughout the Early to Late-Wisconsin but was interrupted by wetland formation from 44.5 to 41.5 ka BP. The latter was terminated by the deposition of 1 m of volcanic tephra, most likely originating from the South Killeak Maar eruption at about 42 ka BP. Yedoma deposition continued until 22.5 ka BP and was followed by a depositional hiatus in the sediment core between 22.5 and 0.23 ka BP. We interpret this hiatus as due to intense thermokarst activity in the areas surrounding the site, which served as a sediment source during the Late-Wisconsin to Holocene climate transition. The lake forming the modern basin on the upland initiated around 0.23 ka BP and drained catastrophically in spring 2005. The present study emphasises that Arctic lake systems and periglacial landscapes are highly dynamic and that permafrost formation as well as degradation in central Beringia was controlled by regional to global climate patterns as well as by local disturbances.

Alaska↗

USGS2017

Regional acidification trends in Florida shellfish estuaries: A 20+ year look at pH, oxygen, temperature, and salinity

Increasing global CO 2 and local land use changes coupled with increased nutrient pollution are threatening estuaries worldwide. Local changes of estuarine chemistry have been documented, but regional associations and trends comparing multiple estuaries latitudinally have not been evaluated. Rapid climate change has impacted the annual and decadal chemical trends in estuaries, with local ecosystem processes enhancing or mitigating the responses. Here, we compare pH, dissolved oxygen, temperature, and salinity data from 10 Florida shellfish estuaries and hundreds of shellfish bed stations. Over 80,000 measurements, spanning from 1980 to 2008, taken on Atlantic Ocean and West Florida coast showed significant regional trends of consistent pH decreases in 8 out of the 10 estuaries, with an average rate of decrease on the Gulf of Mexico side estuaries of Florida of 7.3 × 10 −4 pH units year −1 , and average decrease on the Atlantic Coast estuaries of 5.0 × 10 −4 pH units year −1 . The rates are approximately 2–3.4 times slower than observed in pH decreases associated with ocean acidification in the Atlantic and Pacific. Other significant trends observed include decreasing dissolved oxygen in 9 out of the 10 estuaries, increasing salinity in 6 out of the 10, and temperature increases in 3 out of the 10 estuaries. The data provide a synoptic regional view of Florida estuary trends which reflect the complexity of changing climate and coastal ocean acidification superimposed on local conditions. These data provide context for understanding, and interpreting the past and predicting future of regional water quality health of shellfish and other organisms of commercial and ecological significance along Florida’s coasts.

Estuaries and Coasts↗

USGS2017

Snow and ice

Temperature and precipitation are key determinants of snowpack levels. Therefore, climate change is likely to affect the role of snow and ice in the landscapes and hydrology of the Chugach National Forest region. Downscaled climate projections developed by Scenarios Network for Alaska and Arctic Planning (SNAP) are useful for examining projected changes in snow at relatively fine resolution using a variable called “snowday fraction (SDF),” the percentage of days with precipitation falling as snow. We summarized SNAP monthly SDF from five different global climate models for the Chugach region by 500 m elevation bands, and compared historical (1971–2000) and future (2030–2059) SDF. We found that: Snow-day fraction and snow-water equivalent (SWE) are projected to decline most in late autumn (October to November) and at lower elevations. Snow-day fraction is projected to decrease 23 percent (averaged across five climate models) from October to March, between sea level and 500 m. Between sea level and 1000 m, SDF is projected to decrease by 17 percent between October and March. Snow-water equivalent is projected to decrease most in autumn (October and November) and at lower elevations (below 1500 m), an average of -26 percent for the 2030–2059 period compared to 1971– 2000. Averaged across the cool season and the entire domain, SWE is projected to decrease at elevations below 1000 m because of increased temperature, but increase at higher elevations because of increased precipitation. Compared to 1971–2000, the percentage of the landscape that is snowdominant in 2030–2059 is projected to decrease, and the percentage in which rain and snow are co-dominant (transient hydrology) is projected to increase from 27 to 37 percent. Most of this change is at lower elevations. Glaciers on the Chugach National Forest are currently losing about 6 km3 of ice per year; half of this loss comes from Columbia Glacier (Berthier et al. 2010). Over the past decade, almost all glaciers surveyed within the Chugach have lost mass (with one exception), including glaciers that have advancing termini (Larsen et al. 2015). Glaciers that are not calving into the ocean are typically thinning by 3 m/year at their termini (Larsen et al. 2015). In the future, glaciers not calving into the ocean will retreat and shrink at rates equivalent to or higher than current rates of ice loss (Larsen et al. 2015). Columbia Glacier will likely retreat another 15 km and break into multiple tributaries over the next 20 years before stabilizing. Other tidewater glaciers have uncertain futures, but likely will not advance significantly in coming decades. These impacts will likely affect recreation and tourism through changes in reliable snowpack and access to recreation and viewsheds.

Alaska↗

USGS2011

Dynamically downscaled climate simulations over North America: Methods, evaluation, and supporting documentation for users

We have completed an array of high-resolution simulations of present and future climate over Western North America (WNA) and Eastern North America (ENA) by dynamically downscaling global climate simulations using a regional climate model, RegCM3. The simulations are intended to provide long time series of internally consistent surface and atmospheric variables for use in climate-related research. In addition to providing high-resolution weather and climate data for the past, present, and future, we have developed an integrated data flow and methodology for processing, summarizing, viewing, and delivering the climate datasets to a wide range of potential users. Our simulations were run over 50- and 15-kilometer model grids in an attempt to capture more of the climatic detail associated with processes such as topographic forcing than can be captured by general circulation models (GCMs). The simulations were run using output from four GCMs. All simulations span the present (for example, 1968-1999), common periods of the future (2040-2069), and two simulations continuously cover 2010-2099. The trace gas concentrations in our simulations were the same as those of the GCMs: the IPCC 20th century time series for 1968-1999 and the A2 time series for simulations of the future. We demonstrate that RegCM3 is capable of producing present day annual and seasonal climatologies of air temperature and precipitation that are in good agreement with observations. Important features of the high-resolution climatology of temperature, precipitation, snow water equivalent (SWE), and soil moisture are consistently reproduced in all model runs over WNA and ENA. The simulations provide a potential range of future climate change for selected decades and display common patterns of the direction and magnitude of changes. As expected, there are some model to model differences that limit interpretability and give rise to uncertainties. Here, we provide background information about the GCMs and the RegCM3, a basic evaluation of the model output and examples of simulated future climate. We also provide information needed to access the web applications for visualizing and downloading the data, and give complete metadata that describe the variables in the datasets.

Open-File Report↗

USGS1974

Development and evaluation of a prototype global volcanic surveillance system utilizing the ERTS-1 satellite data collection system

The ERTS Data Collection System makes it feasible for the first time to monitor the level of activity at widely separated volcanoes and to relay these data rapidly to one central office for analysis. This capability opens a new era in volcanology where the hundreds of normally quiescent but potentially dangerous volcanoes near populated regions around the world can be economically and reliably monitored daily to warn when any one volcano is becoming active again. Before ERTS was launched only a few volcanoes in the world were monitored continuously because of the high cost of building and staffing volcano observatories. Yet it is known from data collected in this century, that while visible signs of pending eruptions may occur only minutes to days in advance, invisible but measurable signs may be detected days, weeks, months and even years before a major eruption. While prediction of specific eruptions is still an elusive goal, early warning of a reawakening of activity at quiescent volcanoes is now a distinct possibility. A prototype volcano surveillance system was established during the latter part of 1972 and early 1973 on 15 volcanoes in Alaska, Hawaii, Washington, California, Iceland, Guatemala, El Salvador, and Nicaragua. Nineteen seismic detectors that count four different sizes of earthquakes and six biaxial borehole tiltmeters that measure ground tilt with a resolution of 1 microradian have been installed. Data from these instruments are relayed through the ERTS satellite and through a teletype link to the U.S. Geological Survey Office in Menlo Park for rapid analysis. Only seismic and tilt data are collected because these have been shown in the past to indicate most reliably the level of volcanic activity and also because they can be measured relatively easily with available instrumentation. Experience during this project demonstrates the feasibility of building inexpensive, low power, reliable instruments that can be installed in remote locations and can be expected to run unattended for a few years. Comparison of the data from these new earthquake counters with data from nearby standard seismometers shows that the counters do normally indicate the level of seismic activity. During periods of high seismic background noise there may be a significant number of spurious counts but the existence and duration of such noisy periods are reliably indicated by other data collected by the earthquake counters. An eruption of Volcan Fuego in Guatemala was preceded by an order of magnitude increase in the number of seismic-event counts several days before. The tiltmeters operated stably in several different environments. A twenty-microradian collapse of the summit of Kilauea Volcano in Hawaii was observed on three tiltmeters. This initial experiment shows that now with the advent of inexpensive satellite telemetry it is both technologically and economically feasible to build a global volcano surveillance system. Several details in the design and deployment of appropriate low-power, inexpensive, and reliable instruments still need to be worked out. Work continues to evaluate the scientific feasibility of this system by collecting and analyzing data that clearly demonstrate the ability of this system to detect changes in volcanic activity.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2024

Paleogene Earth perturbations in the US Atlantic Coastal Plain (PEP-US): Coring transects of hyperthermals to understand past carbon injections and ecosystem responses

The release of over 4500 Gt (gigatonnes) of carbon at the Paleocene–Eocene boundary provides the closest geological analog to modern anthropogenic CO 2 emissions. The cause(s) of and responses to the resulting Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) and attendant carbon isotopic excursion (CIE) remain enigmatic and intriguing despite over 30 years of intense study. CIE records from the deep sea are generally thin due to its short duration and slow sedimentation rates, and they are truncated due to corrosive bottom waters dissolving carbonate sediments. In contrast, PETM coastal plain sections along the US mid-Atlantic margin are thick, generally having an expanded record of the CIE. Drilling here presents an opportunity to study the PETM onset to a level of detail that could transform our understanding of this important event. Previous drilling in this region provided important insights, but existing cores are either depleted or contain stratigraphic gaps. New core material is needed for well-resolved marine climate records. To plan new drilling, members of the international scientific community attended a multi-staged, hybrid scientific drilling workshop in 2022 designed to maximize not only scientifically and demographically diverse participation but also to protect participants' health and safety during the global pandemic and to reduce our carbon footprint. The resulting plan identified 10 sites for drill holes that would penetrate the Cretaceous–Paleogene (K–Pg) boundary, targeting the pre-onset excursion (POE), the CIE onset, the rapidly deposited Marlboro Clay that records a very thick CIE body, and other Eocene hyperthermals. The workshop participants developed several primary scientific objectives related to investigating the nature and the cause(s) of the CIE onset as well as the biotic effects of the PETM on the paleoshelf. Additional objectives focus on the evidence for widespread wildfires and changes in the hydrological cycle, shelf morphology, and sea level during the PETM as well as the desire to study both underlying K–Pg sediments and overlying post-Eocene records of extreme hyperthermal climate events. All objectives address our overarching research question: what was the Earth system response to a rapid carbon cycle perturbation?

Scientific Drilling↗

USGS2024

Post-fire reference densities for giant sequoia seedlings in a new era of high-severity wildfires

Many forests globally are experiencing increases in large, high-severity wildfires, often with increasingly inadequate post-fire tree regeneration. To identify areas that might need post-fire planting, forest managers have a growing need for seedling reference densities – the natural seedling densities expected to be adequate to regenerate a forest – to compare with observed post-fire seedling densities. The most useful reference densities will meet five criteria: they will (1) be specific to natural post-fire reproduction rather than planted seedlings (because planted seedlings can have substantially greater survival than natural seedlings, thus underestimating adequate natural reproduction), (2) apply to the first few years following fire (when management decisions and actions are most likely), (3) be specific to each of those post-fire years (because post-fire seedling densities can change rapidly with time since fire), (4) be associated with estimates of uncertainty, and (5) include consideration of novel environmental conditions during management applications (because most reference densities will be based on data collected under more environmentally benign conditions). The world’s most massive tree species, the giant sequoia ( Sequoiadendron giganteum ) of California’s Sierra Nevada, recently experienced historically unprecedented wildfires that killed an estimated 13–19% of mature sequoias across their native range. Seedlings germinating after these fires then experienced exceptional summer heat and the two most severe summer droughts of the 121-year historical record. To help inform management responses to these events, we used seedling censuses from past fires (mostly prescribed fires) to calculate sequoia seedling reference densities meeting the five criteria. The reference densities had three striking features, which are partly attributable to giant sequoia’s status as a pioneer species. First, despite being inherently conservative, the reference densities were quite high. For example, mean first-year reference density was 172,599 seedlings ha −1 . Second, reference densities declined precipitously with time since fire: the mean fifth-year reference density was only 5% of the mean first-year density. Third, the reference densities were associated with relatively substantial uncertainty, a consequence of density variations among seedling plots; for example, the 95% credible interval for first-year reference density was 64,377 to 313,438 seedlings ha −1 . Despite this uncertainty, a case-study sequoia grove that recently burned in a high-severity wildfire had second-year post-fire seedling densities that were significantly (and dramatically) lower than the corresponding second-year reference density, suggesting inadequate post-fire reproduction. Our results highlight the value of the five criteria for reference densities – criteria that, in current practice, are rarely all met.

Forest Ecology and Management↗