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Publications of the Western Earth Surface Processes Team 2000

The Western Earth Surface Processes Team (WESP) of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducts geologic mapping and related topical earth science studies in the western United States. This work is focused on areas where modern geologic maps and associated earth-science data are needed to address key societal and environmental issues such as ground-water quality, potential geologic hazards, and land-use decisions. Areas of primary emphasis in 2000 included southern California, the San Francisco Bay region, the Pacific Northwest, the Las Vegas urban corridor, and selected National Park lands. The team has its headquarters in Menlo Park, California, and maintains smaller field offices at several other locations in the western United States. The results of research conducted by the WESPT are released to the public as a variety of databases, maps, text reports, and abstracts, both through the internal publication system of the USGS and in diverse external publications such as scientific journals and books. This report lists publications of the WESPT released in 2000 as well as additional 1999 publications that were not included in the previous list (USGS Open-file Report 00-215). Most of the publications listed were authored or coauthored by WESPT staff. The list also includes some publications authored by non-USGS cooperators with the WESPT, as well as some authored by USGS staff outside the WESPT in cooperation with WESPT projects. Several of the publications listed are available on the World Wide Web; for these, URL addresses are provided. Many of these Web publications are USGS open-file reports that contain large digital databases of geologic map and related information.

Open-File Report

Hydrogeology, water quality, and water-supply potential of the Lower Floridan Aquifer, coastal Georgia, 1999-2002

The hydrogeology and water quality of the upper permeable and Fernandina permeable zones of the Lower Floridan aquifer were studied at seven sites in the 24-county study area encompassed by the Georgia Coastal Sound Science Initiative. Although substantially less than the Upper Floridan aquifer in coastal Georgia, transmissivities for the Lower Floridan aquifer are in the same range as other water-supply aquifers in Georgia and South Carolina and could meet the needs of public drinking-water supply. Water of the upper permeable zone of the Lower Floridan aquifer exceeds the Federal secondary drinking-water standards for sulfate and total dissolved solids at most coastal Georgia sites and the Federal secondary drinking-water standard for chloride at the Shellman Bluff site. The top of the Lower Floridan aquifer correlates within 50 feet of the previously reported top, except at the St Simons Island site where the top is more than 80 feet higher. Based on the hydrogeologic characteristics, the seven sites are divided into the northern sites at Shellman Bluff, Richmond Hill, Pembroke, and Pineora; and southern sites at St Marys, Brunswick, and St Simons Island. At the northern sites, the Lower Floridan aquifer does not include the Fernandina permeable zone, is thinner than the overlying Upper Floridan aquifer, and consists of only strata of the middle Eocene Avon Park Formation. Transmissivities in the Lower Floridan aquifer are 8,300 feet squared per day at Richmond Hill and 6,000 feet squared per day at Shellman Bluff, generally one tenth the transmissivity of the Upper Floridan aquifer at these sites. At the southern sites, the upper permeable zone of the Lower Floridan aquifer is thicker than the Upper Floridan aquifer and consists of porous limestone and dolomite interbedded with nonporous strata of the middle Eocene Avon Park and early Eocene Oldsmar Formations. Transmissivities for the upper permeable zone of the Lower Floridan aquifer are 500 feet squared per day at the St Simons Island site and 13,000 feet squared per day at the St Marys site. The Lower Floridan aquifer at the Brunswick and St Marys sites includes the Fernandina permeable zone, which consists of saltwater-bearing dolomite. Hydrographs of Coastal Sound Science Initiative wells and other nearby wells open to the Upper Floridan aquifer, and the upper permeable and Fernandina permeable zones of the Lower Floridan aquifer have similar trends. Water levels in wells open to the Upper and Lower Floridan aquifers are below land surface at the northern sites and the St Simons Island site, and above land surface at the Brunswick and St Marys sites, as of January 1, 2004. Freshwater is present in the Lower Floridan aquifer at Pineora, Pembroke, and St Marys, and from 1,259 to 1,648 feet below land surface at Brunswick. Slightly saline water is present in the Lower Floridan aquifer at Richmond Hill, Shellman Bluff, St Simons Island, and from 1,679 to 1,970 feet below land surface in well 34H495 at Brunswick. The upper permeable zone of the Lower Floridan aquifer contains bicarbonate water at the Pembroke site, sulfate-bicarbonate water at the Brunswick site, and sulfate water at the St Simons Island, Shellman Bluff, St Marys, and Richmond Hill sites. The bicarbonate, sulfate-bicarbonate, and sulfate waters are saturated relative to calcite and dolomite, and undersaturated with gypsum and anhydrite. The Fernandina permeable zone in well 34H495 includes moderately saline water, very saline water, and brine. The Fernandina permeable zone of the Lower Floridan aquifer beneath downtown Brunswick contains chloride water that is slightly undersaturated to saturated with gypsum and anhydrite. Concentrations of total dissolved solids, sulfate, and chloride exceeded the Federal secondary drinking-water standards. The chloride-contaminated plumes beneath downtown Brunswick would require at least a 12- to 20-percent contribution of very saline water from the Fernandi

Georgia

The Geologic Story of the Uinta Mountains

The opening of the West after the Civil War greatly stimulated early geologic exploration west of the 100th Meridian. One of the areas first studied, the Uinta Mountains region, gained wide attention as a result of the explorations of three Territorial Surveys, one headed by John Wesley Powell, one by Clarence King, and one by Ferdinand V. Hayden. Completion of the Union Pacific Railroad across southern Wyoming 100 years ago, in 1869, materially assisted geologic exploration, and the railheads at Green River and Rock Springs greatly simplified the outfitting of expeditions into the mountains. The overlap of the Powell, King, and Hayden surveys in the Uinta Mountains led to efforts that were less concerted than competitive and not without acrimony. Many parts of the area were seen by all three parties at almost the same time. Duplication was inevitable, of course, but all three surveys contributed vast quantities of new knowledge to the storehouse of geology, and many now-basic concepts arose from their observations. Powell's area of interest extended mainly southward from the Uinta Mountains to the Grand Canyon, including the boundless plateaus and canyons of southern Utah and northern Arizona. King's survey extended eastward from the High Sierra in California to Cheyenne, Wyoming, and encompassed a swath of country more than 100 miles wide. Hayden's explorations covered an immense region of mountains and basins from Yellowstone Park in Wyoming southeast throughout most of Colorado. Powell first entered the Uinta Mountains in the fall of 1868, having traveled north around the east end of the range from the White River country to Green River, Wyoming, then south over a circuitous route to Flaming Gorge and Browns Park, and finally back to the White River, where he spent the winter. In 1869, after reexamining much of the area visited the previous season, Powell embarked on his famous 'first boat trip' down the Green and Colorado Rivers. This trip was more exploratory than scientific; his second, more scientific trip was made 2 years later. Powell revisited the Uinta Mountains in 1874 and 1875 to complete the studies begun 6 years earlier. His classic 'Report on the Geology of the Eastern Portion of the Uinta Mountains and a Region of Country Adjacent Thereto' was published in 1876. King's survey?officially 'The United States Geological Exploration of the Fortieth Parallel'?is better known simply as the '40th Parallel Survey.' King began working eastward from California in 1867. The Uinta Mountains region, however, was mapped by S. F. Emmons, under the supervision of King, in the summers of 1869 and 1871. Emmons' work was monumental, and although he emphasized in his letter of transmittal to King the exploratory nature of the work?as the formal title of the report indicates?his maps, descriptions, and conclusions reflect a comprehensive understanding of the country and its rocks. The 40th Parallel report contains the best, most complete early descriptions of the Uinta Mountains. It, indeed, is a treasurechest of information and a landmark contribution to the emerging science of geology. Hayden visited the Uinta Mountains in 1870, descending the valley of Henrys Fork to Flaming Gorge in the fall after having earlier examined the higher part of the range to the west. Most of Hayden's observations were cursory, and he repeatedly expressed regret at having insufficient time for more detailed studies. In reference to the area between Clay Basin and Browns Park, he remarked (Hayden, 1871, p. 67) somewhat dryly that 'the geology of this portion of the Uinta range is very complicated and interesting. To have solved the problem to my entire satisfaction would have required a week or two.' Eighty-odd years later I spent several months there?looking at the same rocks. Powell was perhaps more creative?more intuitive?than either King or Hayden, and his breadth of interest in the fields of geology, physiography, ethnology, an

Bulletin

Proceedings of the Fourth Interagency Conference on Research in the Watersheds—Observing, Studying, and Managing for Change

These proceedings contain the abstracts, manuscripts, and posters of presentations given at the Fourth Interagency Conference on Research in the Watersheds—Observing, Studying, and Managing for Change, held at the Westmark Hotel in Fairbanks, Alaska, September 26–30, 2011. The conference was jointly hosted by the Bureau of Land Management and the National Park Service. Watersheds face resource impacts driven by accelerated change related to land use, population, and climate. About every three years a conference is held to bring together watershed researchers, observers, and managers to share scientific advances and management strategies. This year, the Fourth ICRW took a wider perspective on watershed science and examined some pressing issues of watershed science and management in our largest and perhaps most vulnerable state, Alaska. The purpose of the conference was to better understand the processes driving change and help managers incorporate societal needs and scientific uncertainty in the management of natural resources. The conference echoed similar themes to the last, highlighting the challenges of managing watersheds based on available science when considerably uncertainty remains regarding the hypothesized relationships between observed environmental changes and their ultimate effects. For example, while the scientific case for anthropogenic climate change has been well presented, confirming possible cause and effect relationships between climatic change and physical and ecological impacts in highly variable, natural systems continues to represent a scientific challenge. This goal becomes even more difficult when superimposed upon a long history of natural resource and land management practices that have fundamentally changed the physical, chemical and biological processes important in maintaining naturally functioning ecosystems. Designing and implementing studies to better understand watersheds and clearly communicating the findings to decisionmakers will be the primary challenge for natural resource scientists and managers into the foreseeable future.

Scientific Investigations Report

Whitebark pine in the national parks of the Pacific states: An assessment of population vulnerability

Whitebark pine ( Pinus albicaulis ) is a long-lived tree found in high-elevation forests of western North America that is declining due to the non-native white pine blister rust ( Cronartium ribicola ) and climate-driven outbreaks of mountain pine beetle ( Dendroctonus ponderosae ; MPB). The National Park Service established a monitoring program for whitebark pine in seven parks, including Sequoia & Kings Canyon, Yosemite, Lassen Volcanic, Crater Lake, Mount Rainier, Olympic, and North Cascades National Parks. Using these data, we summarized stand structure, presence of blister rust, and MPB prevalence to provide a baseline for future monitoring. Next, we used a stochastic, size-structured population model to speculate on future trends in the seven national park populations under conditions of increased MPB activity and ongoing blister rust infection observed in Crater Lake. We found that blister rust infected 29 to 54% of whitebark pine in all the parks except the two southernmost, Sequoia & Kings Canyon and Yosemite, where infections rates were 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively. The proportion of dead trees in Sequoia & Kings Canyon and Yosemite was low (0 to 1%), while they ranged from 10 to 43% in the other parks. Model projections suggested an average population decline of 25% in the parks over the next century using Crater Lake conditions, declines which are possible if blister rust continues to spread and climate change results in a significant increase in the frequency or severity of MPB outbreaks. Overall, our study describes conditions at seven western parks and illustrates potential rates of whitebark pine decline if pest outbreaks and/or blister rust infections worsen.

California, Oregon, Washington

Scientific opportunities in the National Landscape Conservation System

The National Landscape Conservation System consists of unique and beautiful places across America’s landscapes where identified resources and values are protected and science is highlighted. The mission of the National Landscape Conservation System (NLCS), which is managed by the Bureau of Land Management and is often referred to as the agency’s National Conservation Lands, is to conserve, protect, and restore nationally significant landscapes for their cultural, ecological, and scientific values. This clear inclusion of science in the NLCS mission sets the stage for individual units to serve as places of learning, teaching, discovery, and innovation. Science is an integral part of managing the National Conservation Lands, and science conducted within and across the more than 900 units that make up the NLCS can inform and influence conservation and public land management well beyond its boundaries. Here, we highlight seven core aspects of National Conservation Lands that present valuable science opportunities: (1) the scientific values for which individual units are designated; (2) the many other resources, objects, and values within units; (3) the value of units as “control” sites for understanding the effects of activities such as mineral extraction that commonly occur elsewhere on multiple-use public lands but are often prohibited within National Conservation Lands; (4) the value of units for studying the effects of activities such as recreation that regularly occur and may be intensified on National Conservation Lands; (5) the high visibility of units, which draws strong interest and engagement from scientists, partners, and the public; (6) the functioning of the units as a network managed for a common purpose, which provides an opportunity to explore cross-cutting science questions across widely varying contexts and geographies; and (7) the opportunities units provide to promote and apply Indigenous Knowledge to scientific research to manage natural and cultural resources. Because of all of these characteristics, National Conservation Lands can serve as hubs for basic and applied science that can inform management of all public lands and resources into the future. We highlight these science opportunities through examples from existing units and suggest two actions that could help further science activities and impact on National Conservation Lands.

Parks Stewardship Forum

Managers' summary - Ecological studies of the Pryor Mountain Wild Horse Range, 1992-1997

Ecological Studies of the Pryor Mountain Wild Horse Range, 1992-1997 provides a synthesis of key findings of landscape-scale, interdisciplinary studies of the effects of wild horses and native ungulates on a rugged, mountain ecosystem. This is perhaps the most comprehensive study of a wild horse herd conducted. This was a complex study and one involving a truly interagency approach. Six agencies either provided input to research priority setting, funding, or both. The agencies included the Bureau of Land Management, National Park Service, U.S. Geological Survey, Montana Department of Fish, Wildlife and Parks, Wyoming Game and Fish Department, and U.S. Forest Service. The major research direction and effort came from the U.S. Geological Survey and Natural Resources Ecology Lab, Colorado State University with Montana State University and the University of Kentucky also participating. Ungulate monitoring was conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, Biological Resources Division, Bureau of Land Management, Billings Field Office and the Montana Fish and Wildlife Parks, with funding by Bighorn Canyon National Recreation Area. Many other individuals and groups were involved and deserve credit. The report printing was made possible with funds from the Bureau of Land Management, Wild Horse and Burro Program, Washington Office. This report was prepared by the Information Management Project, Midcontinent Ecological Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey.

Montana, Wyoming

Native ranid frogs in California

Many recent declines and extinctions of native amphibians have occurred in certain parts of the world (Wake 1991; Wake and Morowitz 1991). All species of native true frogs have declined in the western United States over the past decade (Hayes and Jennings 1986). Most of these native amphibian declines can be directly attributed to habitat loss or modification, which is often exacerbated by natural events such as droughts or floods (Wake 1991). A growing body of research, however, indicates that certain native frogs are particularly susceptible to population declines and extinctions in habitats that are relatively unmodified by humans (e.g., wilderness areas and national parks in California; Bradford 1991; Fellers and Drost 1993; Kagarise Sherman and Morton 1993). To understand these declines, we must document the current distribution of these species over their entire historical range to learn where they have disappeared. In 1988 the California Department of Fish and Game commissioned the California Academy of Sciences to conduct a 6-year study on the status of the state's amphibians and reptiles not currently protected by the Endangered Species Act. The study's purpose was to determine amphibians and reptiles most vulnerable to extinction and provide suggestions for future research, management, and protection by state, federal, and local agencies (Jennings and Hayes 1993). This article describes the distribution and status of all native true frogs in California as determined by the California Fish and Game study.

California

Atmospheric deposition of current-use and historic-use pesticides in snow at National Parks in the Western United States

The United States (U.S.) National Park Service has initiated research on the atmospheric deposition and fate of semi-volatile organic compounds in its alpine, sub-Arctic, and Arctic ecosystems in the Western U.S. Results for the analysis of pesticides in seasonal snowpack samples collected in spring 2003 from seven national parks are presented herein. From a target analyte list of 47 pesticides and degradation products, the most frequently detected current-use pesticides were dacthal, chlorpyrifos, endosulfan, and ??- hexachlorocyclohexane, whereas the most frequently detected historic-use pesticides were dieldrin, ??-hexachlorocyclohexane, chlordane, and hexachlorobenzene. Correlation analysis with latitude, temperature, elevation, particulate matter, and two indicators of regional pesticide use reveal that regional current and historic agricultural practices are largely responsible for the distribution of pesticides in the national parks in this study. Pesticide deposition in the Alaskan parks is attributed to long-range transport because there are no significant regional pesticide sources. The percentage of total pesticide concentration due to regional transport (%RT) was calculated for the other parks. %RT was highest at parks with higher regional cropland intensity and for pesticides with lower vapor pressures and shorter half-lives in air. ?? 2006 American Chemical Society.

Environmental Science & Technology

Using high-resolution digital aerial imagery to map land cover

The Upper Midwest Environmental Sciences Center (UMESC) has used aerial photography to map land cover/land use on federally owned and managed lands for over 20 years. Until recently, that process used 23- by 23-centimeter (9- by 9-inch) analog aerial photos to classify vegetation along the Upper Mississippi River System, on National Wildlife Refuges, and in National Parks. With digital aerial cameras becoming more common and offering distinct advantages over analog film, UMESC transitioned to an entirely digital mapping process in 2009. Though not without challenges, this method has proven to be much more accurate and efficient when compared to the analog process.

Fact Sheet

Sulfur isotope distribution in solfataras, Yellowstone National Park

Sulfur isotope data on hydrogen sulfide, native sulfur, and sulfates from acid hot-spring areas at Yellowstone National Park suggest that hydrogen sulfide oxidizes to sulfur analogically, whereas sulfur undergoes biological oxidation to sulfuric acid. An exception occurs at Mammoth Hot Springs where hydrogen sulfide apparently undergoes biochemical oxidation to sulfur.

Wyoming

Volcano and earthquake monitoring plan for the Yellowstone Caldera system, 2022–2032

Executive Summary The Yellowstone Volcano Observatory (YVO) is a consortium of nine Federal, State, and academic agencies that: (1) provides timely monitoring and hazards assessment of volcanic, hydrothermal, and earthquake activity in and around Yellowstone National Park, and (2) conducts research to develop new approaches to volcano monitoring and better understand volcanic activity in the Yellowstone region and elsewhere. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) arm of YVO is also responsible for monitoring and reporting on volcanic activity in the Intermountain West of the United States. The previous YVO monitoring plan for the Yellowstone region spanned 2006–2015 and focused on strengthening the region-wide coverage, or backbone, of monitoring systems (Yellowstone Volcano Observatory, 2006). The goals of that plan have largely been achieved thanks to significant investments in instrumentation and infrastructure, especially by the National Science Foundation EarthScope Plate Boundary Observatory (now known as the Network Of The Americas, or NOTA) and the American Reinvestment and Recovery Act. This revision of the monitoring plan, covering 2022–2032, builds upon these improvements to monitoring systems in the Yellowstone region while also accounting for new insights into the dynamics of the area’s seismic, volcanic, and hydrothermal activity. These additional improvements are designed to fill gaps in the monitoring network and to better understand and track hazards associated with hydrothermal processes. These improvements include: Conversion of remaining analog seismic stations to digital, Addition of Global Positioning System (GPS) stations in the vicinity of Norris Geyser Basin and other areas where changes in deformation rate and style have been observed, Implementation of continuous gas monitoring in several areas of Yellowstone National Park, and Improvements to lake, meteorological, and hydrological monitoring to better track hydrothermal activity, including that occurring on lake bottoms, and to aid in understanding of whether such activity might be influenced by external forces, like environmental conditions. The 2022–2032 monitoring plan for the Yellowstone volcanic system also proposes to improve monitoring of hydrothermal areas to better understand these dynamic systems and their associated hazards. To date, only a single seismometer has been placed within one of Yellowstone National Park’s geyser basins because seismic noise associated with boiling water can hinder interpretation of overall seismic and magmatic activity, but this concern has been mitigated by improvements to backbone monitoring. Deployment of geophysical, geochemical, hydrological, and geological monitoring instruments in geyser basins will be accompanied by campaigns to measure gas and water chemistry and flux, as well as aerial and satellite surveys of gas and thermal emissions. Close collaboration between YVO member institutions and other research agencies is needed to achieve these monitoring goals and to use the derived data to advance understanding of how Yellowstone Caldera and similar volcanic systems work. At the same time, attention must be paid to minimize the impact of monitoring efforts and infrastructure on the environment. YVO thus commits to serving as stewards of the natural, cultural, and historical resources in and around Yellowstone National Park while maximizing scientific gain for the betterment of society.

Wyoming

Publications of Western Earth Surface Processes Team 2001

The Western Earth Surface Processes Team (WESPT) of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducts geologic mapping and related topical earth-science studies in the Western United States. This work is focused on areas where modern geologic maps and associated earth-science data are needed to address key societal and environmental issues, such as ground-water quality, landslides and other potential geologic hazards, and land-use decisions. Areas of primary emphasis in 2001 included southern California, the San Francisco Bay region, the Pacific Northwest, and the Las Vegas urban corridor. The team has its headquarters in Menlo Park, California, and maintains smaller field offices at several other locations in the Western United States. The results of research conducted by the WESPT are released to the public as a variety of databases, maps, text reports, and abstracts, both through the internal publication system of the USGS and in diverse external publications such as scientific journals and books. This report lists publications of the WESPT released in 2001, as well as additional 1999 and 2000 publications that were not included in the previous list (USGS Open-File Report 00–215 and USGS Open-File Report 01–198). Most of the publications listed were authored or coauthored by WESPT staff. The list also includes some publications authored by non-USGS cooperators with the WESPT, as well as some authored by USGS staff outside the WESPT in cooperation with WESPT projects. Several of the publications listed are available on the World Wide Web; for these, URL addresses are provided. Many of these web publications are USGS Open-File Reports that contain large digital databases of geologic map and related information.

Open-File Report

Publications of the Western Earth Surface Processes Team 2002

The Western Earth Surface Processes Team (WESPT) of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducts geologic mapping and related topical earth science studies in the western United States. This work is focused on areas where modern geologic maps and associated earth-science data are needed to address key societal and environmental issues such as ground-water quality, landslides and other potential geologic hazards, and land-use decisions. Areas of primary emphasis in 2001 included southern California, the San Francisco Bay region, the Pacific Northwest, and the Las Vegas urban corridor. The team has its headquarters in Menlo Park, California, and maintains smaller field offices at several other locations in the western United States. The results of research conducted by the WESPT are released to the public as a variety of databases, maps, text reports, and abstracts, both through the internal publication system of the USGS and in diverse external publications such as scientific journals and books. This report lists publications of the WESPT released in 2002 as well as additional 1998 and 2001 publications that were not included in the previous list (USGS Open-File Report 00-215, USGS Open-File Report 01-198, and USGS Open-File Report 02-269). Most of the publications listed were authored or coauthored by WESPT staff. The list also includes some publications authored by non-USGS cooperators with the WESPT, as well as some authored by USGS staff outside the WESPT in cooperation with WESPT projects. Several of the publications listed are available on the World Wide Web; for these, URL addresses are provided. Many of these web publications are USGS open-file reports that contain large digital databases of geologic map and related information. Information on ordering USGS publications can be found on the World Wide Web or by calling 1-888-ASK-USGS. The U.S. Geological Survey’s web server for geologic information in the western United States is located at http://geology.wr.usgs.gov. More information is available about the WESPT is available on-line at the team website.

Open-File Report

Surprise and opportunity for learning in Grand Canyon: the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program

With a focus on resources of the Colorado River ecosystem below Glen Canyon Dam, the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program has included a variety of experimental policy tests, ranging from manipulation of water releases from the dam to removal of non-native fish within Grand Canyon National Park. None of these field-scale experiments has yet produced unambiguous results in terms of management prescriptions. But there has been adaptive learning, mostly from unanticipated or surprising resource responses relative to predictions from ecosystem modeling. Surprise learning opportunities may often be viewed with dismay by some stakeholders who might not be clear about the purpose of science and modeling in adaptive management. However, the experimental results from the Glen Canyon Dam program actually represent scientific successes in terms of revealing new opportunities for developing better river management policies. A new long-term experimental management planning process for Glen Canyon Dam operations, started in 2011 by the U.S. Department of the Interior, provides an opportunity to refocus management objectives, identify and evaluate key uncertainties about the influence of dam releases, and refine monitoring for learning over the next several decades. Adaptive learning since 1995 is critical input to this long-term planning effort. Embracing uncertainty and surprise outcomes revealed by monitoring and ecosystem modeling will likely continue the advancement of resource objectives below the dam, and may also promote efficient learning in other complex programs.

Arizona, Nevada, Utah

Climate change refugia hotspots for priority species: A case study in East Africa

Natural resource managers and policymakers need actionable climate data to guide conservation decisions. Conserving climate change refugia, areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change, is increasingly considered an effective strategy for adaptation. Despite tropical species facing heightened vulnerability to climate change, the tropics remain underserved in climate adaptation research. We coproduced with Tanzanian partners the first comprehensive assessment of climate change refugia across Tanzania through extensive consultation, in-person conversations, and field visits to priority ecosystems, ensuring our analysis addressed local conservation needs and decision-making contexts. We developed species distribution models for 33 terrestrial animal species using maximum entropy and boosted regression tree algorithms. We projected future suitable habitats for SSP126 and SSP585, for 2011–2040 and 2071–2100, using GFDL Earth System and the UK Earth System models. More than half under SSP126 and 79% of focal species under SSP585 lost their suitable habitat by 2100. Serengeti National Park, Northern Highlands Forest Reserve, and the Eastern Arc Mountains emerged as key climate change refugia, while other protected areas, including Kigosi and Ugalla River National Parks, had no climate change refugia. This assessment provides actionable insights for Tanzania's conservation prioritization while identifying critical research gaps in western and montane ecosystems.

Conservation Science and Practice

Progress on geoenvironmental models for selected mineral deposit types

Since the beginning of economic geology as a subdiscipline of the geological sciences, economic geologists have tended to classify mineral deposits on the basis of geological, mineralogical, and geochemical criteria, in efforts to systematize our understanding of mineral deposits as an aid to exploration. These efforts have led to classifications based on commodity, geologic setting (Cox and Singer, 1986), inferred temperatures and pressures of ore formation (Lindgren, 1933), and genetic setting (Park and MacDiarmid, 1975; Jensen and Bateman, 1979). None of these classification schemes is mutually exclusive; instead, there is considerable overlap among all of these classifications. A natural outcome of efforts to classify mineral deposits is the development of “mineral deposit models.” A mineral deposit model is a systematically arranged body of information that describes some or all of the essential characteristics of a selected group of mineral deposits; it presents a concept within which essential attributes may be distinguished and from which extraneous, coincidental features may be recognized and excluded (Barton, 1993). Barton (1993) noted that the grouping of deposits on the basis of common characteristics forms the basis for a classification, but the specification of the characteristics required for belonging to the group is the basis for a model. Models range from purely descriptive to genetic. A genetic model is superior to a descriptive model because it provides a basis to distinguish essential from extraneous attributes, and it has flexibility to accommodate variability in sources, processes, and local controls. In general, a descriptive model is a necessary prerequisite to a genetic model.

Open-File Report

Protocols for geologic hazards response by the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory to activity within the Yellowstone Volcanic System

Executive Summary The Yellowstone Plateau hosts an active volcanic system, with subterranean magma (molten rock), boiling, pressurized waters, and a variety of active faults with significant earthquake hazards. Within the next few decades, light-to-moderate earthquakes and steam explosions are certain to occur. Volcanic eruptions are less likely, but are ultimately inevitable in this active volcanic region. This document summarizes protocols, policies, and tools to be used by the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory (YVO) during earthquakes, hydrothermal explosions, or any geologic activity that could lead to a volcanic eruption. Yellowstone National Park is home to Yellowstone Caldera, the largest volcanic system by volume in the United States, as well as a vigorous hydrothermal system composed of pressurized subsurface boiling waters and active faults capable of generating substantial seismicity. The region is subject to hazards spanning a wide range of intensities, magnitudes, likelihood of occurrence, and geographic extent of impact. These hazards include small and comparatively common hydrothermal explosions, occasional strong earthquakes, rare relatively non-explosive lava flows, and very rare large explosive volcanic eruptions. Addressing the broad style of potential hazards and the vast spatial and temporal scales over which these hazards can occur requires a general plan that outlines the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory (YVO) response to a hazardous or potentially hazardous geological event or unrest (defined as departure from normal activity levels). The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Volcano Science Center (VSC) Response Plan for Significant Volcanic Events in the United States (Moran and others, 2024) forms the basis of any response by YVO but will be modified to suit the specific characteristics of the observatory, which operates as a consortium of nine federal, state, and academic institutions. Decisions on declaring an event response or “activity with potential” (defined as unrest that is not immediately hazardous but that may evolve into a hazardous event), as well as any changes in Volcano Alert Level and Aviation Color Code or the release of formal Information Statements, will be made by the USGS via the YVO Scientist-in-Charge (SIC) in consultation with the leads of the YVO member agencies. The YVO response to hazardous or potentially hazardous geological activity in or around Yellowstone National Park will focus on the collection and analysis of data relevant to the location and style of the activity. Those data will be interpreted within the existing geological framework for the region to develop probabilistic assessments of potential outcomes. These interpretations and assessments will be used to support decision making by emergency management officials including Yellowstone National Park managers or within the National Incident Management System if an Incident Command System (ICS) is activated. YVO will also convene a communications group open to each member agency to ensure consistent internal and external messaging and that the public is kept informed of the unrest through formal notifications, social media posts, online content, traditional media interviews, and community meetings. This response plan will be evaluated and updated as needed by the observatory and will be available through the YVO and USGS public websites. Responses to volcanic eruptions and responses outside of the Yellowstone region, but within the YVO area of responsibility (including Arizona, Utah, New Mexico, and Colorado), will follow the U.S. Geological Survey Volcano Science Center Response Plan for Significant Volcanic Events in the United States (Moran and others, 2024).

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming