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Results for “Natural Resource Modeling”

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At least 343 records · Page 19Linked to original sources
USGS2026

Simulation of the impacts of spring diversions on streamflow in the Strawberry Creek watershed, San Bernardino County, California, using an integrated hydrological model

The Strawberry Creek watershed, in the San Bernardino Mountains of southern California, features a group of natural springs known as Arrowhead Springs that have been augmented with diversions in the form of sub-horizontal borings and tunnels. Understanding the effects of these structures on streamflow through groundwater capture is crucial for managing surface-water resources in this watershed. In this study, we constructed the Strawberry Creek integrated hydrological model to increase this understanding. The Strawberry Creek integrated hydrological model is an integrated surface runoff and groundwater model, GSFLOW to simulate surface runoff and infiltration and groundwater flow. The model has 263 rows and 176 columns in each of its three layers. The model area includes the Strawberry Creek and four adjacent watersheds. The precipitation-runoff modeling system was calibrated using two streamflow gaging stations, and the groundwater and surface-water flow model was calibrated to the reported spring diversion discharge and a sparse number of groundwater-level measurements. The Strawberry Creek integrated hydrological model was run with and without diversions active, and simulated streamflow was compared, indicating that in the headwaters of Strawberry Creek, about 35 percent of the diversion flow was captured from base flow.

California↗
USGS2025

Simulation of the impacts of spring diversions on streamflow in the Strawberry Creek watershed, San Bernardino County, California, using an integrated hydrological model

The Strawberry Creek watershed, situated in the San Bernardino Mountains of southern California, features a group of natural springs known as Arrowhead Springs that have been augmented with diversions in the form of sub-horizontal borings and tunnels. Understanding the impact of these structures on streamflow through groundwater capture is crucial for managing surface-water resources in this watershed. In this study we constructed the Strawberry Creek integrated hydrological model (SCIHM) to increase this understanding. The SCIHM is an integrated surface runoff and groundwater model that uses the coupled groundwater and surface-water flow model (GSFLOW), which is based on the integration of the precipitation-runoff modeling system (PRMS) and the modular groundwater flow model commonly called MODFLOW, version MODFLOW-2005 software to simulate surface runoff and infiltration and groundwater flow. The model has three layers, 263 rows, and 176 columns. The model area includes the Strawberry Creek and four adjacent watersheds. The PRMS model was calibrated using two streamflow gaging stations and the GSFLOW model was calibrated to reported spring diversion discharge and a sparse number of groundwater-level measurements. The SCIHM was run with and without diversions active and simulated streamflow was compared, finding that in the headwaters of Strawberry Creek about 35 percent of the diversion flow was captured from base flow.

EarthArXiv↗
USGS2007

Conservation biology for suites of species: Demographic modeling for Pacific island kingfishers

Conservation practitioners frequently extrapolate data from single-species investigations when managing critically endangered populations. However, few researchers initiate work with the intent of making findings useful to conservation efforts for other species. We presented and explored the concept of conducting conservation-oriented research for suites of geographically separated populations with similar natural histories, resource needs, and extinction threats. An example was provided in the form of an investigation into the population demography of endangered Micronesian kingfishers (Todiramphus cinnamominus). We provided the first demographic parameter estimates for any of the 12 endangered Pacific Todiramphus species, and used results to develop a population projection matrix model for management throughout the insular Pacific. Further, we used the model for elasticity and simulation analyses with demographic values that randomly varied across ranges that might characterize congener populations. Results from elasticity and simulation analyses indicated that changes in breeding adult survival exerted the greatest magnitude of influence on population dynamics. However, changes in nestling survival were more consistently correlated with population dynamics as demographic rates were randomly altered. We concluded that conservation practitioners working with endangered Pacific kingfishers should primarily focus efforts on factors affecting nestling and breeder survival, and secondarily address fledgling juveniles and helpers. Further, we described how the generalized base model might be changed to focus on individual populations and discussed the potential application of multi-species models to other conservation situations. ?? 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Biological Conservation↗
USGS2013

The 3D Elevation Program: summary for Alabama

Elevation data are essential to a broad range of applications, including forest resources management, wildlife and habitat management, national security, recreation, and many others. For the State of Alabama, elevation data are critical for flood risk management; infrastructure and construction management; wildfire management, planning, and response; natural resources conservation; geologic resource assessment and hazards mitigation; and other business uses. Today, high-density light detection and ranging (lidar) data are the primary sources for deriving elevation models and other datasets. Federal, State, and local agencies work in partnership to (1) replace data that are older and of lower quality and (2) provide coverage where publicly accessible data do not exist. A joint goal of State and Federal partners is to acquire consistent, statewide coverage to support existing and emerging applications enabled by lidar data. The National Enhanced Elevation Assessment evaluated multiple elevation data acquisition options to determine the optimal data quality and data replacement cycle relative to cost to meet the identified requirements of the user community. The evaluation demonstrated that lidar acquisition at quality level 2 for the conterminous United States and quality level 5 ifsar data for Alaska with a 6- to 10-year acquisition cycle provided the highest benefit/cost ratios. The new 3D Elevation Program (3DEP) initiative selected an 8-year acquisition cycle for the respective quality levels. 3DEP, managed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the Office of Management and Budget Circular A-16 lead agency for terrestrial elevation data, responds to the growing need for high-quality topographic data and a wide range of other 3D representations of the Nation’s natural and constructed features.

Alabama↗
USGS2011

Observed and forecast flood-inundation mapping application-A pilot study of an eleven-mile reach of the White River, Indianapolis, Indiana

Near-real-time and forecast flood-inundation mapping products resulted from a pilot study for an 11-mile reach of the White River in Indianapolis. The study was done by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Indiana Silver Jackets hazard mitigation taskforce members, the National Weather Service (NWS), the Polis Center, and Indiana University, in cooperation with the City of Indianapolis, the Indianapolis Museum of Art, the Indiana Department of Homeland Security, and the Indiana Department of Natural Resources, Division of Water. The pilot project showed that it is technically feasible to create a flood-inundation map library by means of a two-dimensional hydraulic model, use a map from the library to quickly complete a moderately detailed local flood-loss estimate, and automatically run the hydraulic model during a flood event to provide the maps and flood-damage information through a Web graphical user interface. A library of static digital flood-inundation maps was created by means of a calibrated two-dimensional hydraulic model. Estimated water-surface elevations were developed for a range of river stages referenced to a USGS streamgage and NWS flood forecast point colocated within the study reach. These maps were made available through the Internet in several formats, including geographic information system, Keyhole Markup Language, and Portable Document Format. A flood-loss estimate was completed for part of the study reach by using one of the flood-inundation maps from the static library. The Federal Emergency Management Agency natural disaster-loss estimation program HAZUS-MH, in conjunction with local building information, was used to complete a level 2 analysis of flood-loss estimation. A Service-Oriented Architecture-based dynamic flood-inundation application was developed and was designed to start automatically during a flood, obtain near real-time and forecast data (from the colocated USGS streamgage and NWS flood forecast point within the study reach), run the two-dimensional hydraulic model, and produce flood-inundation maps. The application used local building data and depth-damage curves to estimate flood losses based on the maps, and it served inundation maps and flood-loss estimates through a Web-based graphical user interface.

Indiana↗
USGS2022

A biological condition gradient for coral reefs in the US Caribbean Territories: Part I. Coral narrative rules

As coral reef condition and sustainability continue to decline worldwide, losses of critical habitat and their ecosystem services have generated an urgency to understand and communicate reef response to management actions, environmental contamination, and natural disasters. Increasingly, coral reef protection and restoration programs emphasize the need for robust assessment tools for protecting high-quality waters and establishing conservation goals. Of equal importance is the need to communicate assessment results to stakeholders, beneficiaries, and the public so that environmental consequences of decisions are understood. The Biological Condition (BCG) model provides a structure to evaluate the condition of a coral reef in increments of change along a gradient of human disturbance. Communication of incremental change, regardless of direction, is important for decision makers and the public to better understand what is gained or lost depending on what actions are taken. We developed a narrative (qualitative) Biological Condition Gradient (BCG) from the consensus of a diverse expert panel to provide a framework for coral reefs in US Caribbean Territories. The model uses narrative descriptions of biological attributes for benthic organisms to evaluate reefs relative to undisturbed or minimally disturbed conditions. Using expert elicitation, narrative decision rules were proposed and deliberated to discriminate among six levels of change along a gradient of increasing anthropogenic stress. Narrative rules for each of the BCG levels are presented to facilitate the evaluation of benthic communities in coral reefs and provide specific narrative features to detect changes in coral reef condition and biological integrity. The BCG model can be used in the absence of numeric, or quantitative metrics, to evaluate actions that may encroach on coral reef ecosystems, manage endangered species habitat, and develop and implement management plans for marine protected areas, watersheds, and coastal zones. The narrative BCG model is a defensible model and communication tool that translates scientific results so the nontechnical person can understand and support both regulatory and non-regulatory water quality and natural resource programs.

Puerto Rico, U.S. Virgin Islands↗
USGS2023

Georeferencing of terrestrial radar images in geomonitoring using kernel correlation

Terrestrial radar interferometry (TRI) provides accurate observations of displacements in the line-of-sight (LOS) direction and is therefore used in various monitoring applications. However, relating these displacements directly to the 3d world is challenging due to the particular imaging process. To address this, the radar results are projected onto a 3d model of the monitored area, requiring georeferencing of the 3d model and radar observation. However, georeferencing relies on manual alignment and resource-intensive on-site measurements. Challenges arise from the significant disparity in spatial resolution between radar images and 3d models, the absence of identifiable common natural features and the relationship between image and spatial coordinates depending on the topography and instrument pose. Herein, we propose a method for data-driven, automatic and precise georeferencing of TRI images without the need for manual interaction or in situ installations. Our approach (i) uses the radar amplitudes from the TRI images and the angle of incidence based on the 3d point cloud to identify matching features in the datasets, (ii) estimates the best-fitting transformation parameters using Kernel Density Correlation (KDC) and (iii) requires only rough initial approximations of the radar instrument’s pose. Additionally, we present the correct relation between cross-range and azimuth for ground-based radar instruments. We demonstrate the application on a geomonitoring case using TRI data and a point cloud of a large rock cliff. The results show that the positions of the radar image can be localized in the monitored 3d space with a precision of a few metres at distances of over

International Journal of Remote Sensing↗
USGS2018

Doublethink and scale mismatch polarize policies for an invasive tree

Mismatches between invasive species management policies and ecological knowledge can lead to profound societal consequences. For this reason, natural resource agencies have adopted the scientifically-based density-impact invasive species curve to guide invasive species management. We use the density-impact model to evaluate how well management policies for a native invader ( Juniperus virginiana ) match scientific guidelines. Juniperus virginiana invasion is causing a sub-continental regime shift from grasslands to woodlands in central North America, and its impacts span collapses in endemic diversity, heightened wildfire risk, and crashes in grazing land profitability. We (1) use land cover data to identify the stage of Juniperus virginiana invasion for three ecoregions within Nebraska, USA, (2) determine the range of invasion stages at individual land parcel extents within each ecoregion based on the density-impact model, and (3) determine policy alignment and mismatches relative to the density-impact model in order to assess their potential to meet sustainability targets and avoid societal impacts as Juniperus virginiana abundance increases. We found that nearly all policies evidenced doublethink and policy-ecology mismatches, for instance, promoting spread of Juniperus virginiana regardless of invasion stage while simultaneously managing it as a native invader in the same ecoregion. Like other invasive species, theory and literature for this native invader indicate that the consequences of invasion are unlikely to be prevented if policies fail to prioritize management at incipient invasion stages. Theory suggests a more realistic approach would be to align policy with the stage of invasion at local and ecoregion management scales. There is a need for scientists, policy makers, and ecosystem managers to move past ideologies governing native versus non-native invader classification and toward a framework that accounts for the uniqueness of native species invasions, their anthropogenic drivers, and their impacts on ecosystem services.

Nebraska↗
USGS2006

Monitoring the Recovery of the Sparta Aquifer in Southern Arkansas and Northern Louisiana

The Sparta aquifer supplies the majority of water for industrial, municipal, and agricultural uses in Union County, Arkansas, and the surrounding area. In Union County, the Sparta aquifer has been used increasingly since development began in the early 1920s, resulting in water-level declines of more than 360 feet (ft) in some areas. In addition, water quality of the Sparta aquifer has degraded in some areas as usage has increased. In response to the declining water levels and degraded water quality, the Arkansas Natural Resources Commission designated the Sparta aquifer as a Critical Ground-Water Area in five counties of southern Arkansas in 1996. Ground-water flow models developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) indicate that withdrawals from the Sparta aquifer in Union County must be reduced to 28 percent of 1997 withdrawals (about 6 million gallons per day (Mgal/d)) to maintain water levels at or above the top of the Sparta Sand (Hays, 2000).

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2024

The 3D Elevation Program—Supporting Florida's economy

Introduction Florida has the longest coastline of any State in the contiguous United States, and its coastal resources are one of the main drivers of its economic growth. High-quality elevation data are beneficial for use in emergency management, especially for hurricane response, recovery, and mitigation, as well as for coastal zone management, flood risk management, infrastructure planning, agriculture, forestry, and natural resources management. Having regional or statewide elevation data coverage that was collected at about the same time allows for improved results from in-depth modeling and more meaningful analysis to support the State’s Chief Science Officer, Geographic Information Officer, State agencies, water management districts, and local governments that will use these data for decision making. Critical applications that meet the State’s management needs depend on light detection and ranging (lidar) data that provide a highly detailed three-dimensional (3D) model of the Earth’s surface and aboveground features.

Florida↗
USGS1998

Hydrogeology and simulation of ground-water flow in the Sandstone Aquifer, northeastern Wisconsin

Municipalities in the lower Fox River Valley in northeastern Wisconsin obtain their water supply from a series of permeable sandstones and carbonates of Cambrian to Ordovician age. Withdrawals from this "sandstone aquifer" have resulted in water levels declining at a rate of more than 2 feet per year. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the major water utilities in the Fox Cities area, the East Central Wisconsin Regional Planning Commission and the Wisconsin Geological and Natural History Survey, collected hydrogeological data and constructed a quasithree- dimensional, transient ground-water-flow model for use as a tool in assessing the water resources of the sandstone aquifer. The rocks of the Sinnipee Group and Maquoketa Shale form the Maquoketa-Sinnipee confining unit that separates the sandstone aquifer from the overlying upper aquifer, which consists of unconsolidated deposits and permeable dolomite of Silurian age. The confining unit is present in the eastern part of the study area, but is absent in the western part, where the upper aquifer directly overlies the sandstone aquifer. The ground-water-flow model simulates water levels in the two aquifers and vertical flow across the confining unit. Streams and lakes are simulated in the upper aquifer as head-dependent boundaries where the confining unit is absent and as constant head boundaries where the confining unit is present. The sandstone aquifer has constant heads assigned to the southern boundary, which is far from the lower Fox River Valley and coincident with a ground-water divide. The model was calibrated to predevelopment, 1957, and 1990 water levels, and used to simulate steady-state predevelopment conditions and transient conditions from 1880 to 1990. The trend in simulated water levels over time was similar to trends in measured water levels. Simulated base flow to streams was within the calculated range of base flow at gaged streams. A groundwater divide that separates westerly ground-water flow to the Wolf River from easterly flow to the lower Fox River Valley and Lake Michigan was simulated.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2020

Drivers of landscape change in the northwest boreal region

The northwest boreal region (NWB) of North America is a land of extremes. Extending more than 1.3 million square kilometers (330 million acres), it encompasses the entire spectrum between inundated wetlands below sea level to the tallest peak in North America. Permafrost gradients span from nearly continuous to absent. Boreal ecosystems are inherently dynamic and continually change over decades to millennia. The braided rivers that shape the valleys and wetlands continually change course, creating and removing vast wetlands and peatlands. Glacial melt, erosion, fires, permafrost dynamics, and wind-blown loess are among the shaping forces of the landscape. As a result, species interactions and ecosystem processes are shifting across time. The NWB is a data-poor region, and the intention of the NWB Landscape Conservation Cooperative is to determine what data are not available and what data are available. For instance, historical baseline data describing the economic and social relationships in association with the ecological condition of the NWB landscape are often lacking. Likewise, the size and remoteness of this region make it challenging to measure basic biological information, such as species population sizes or trends. The paucity of weather and climate monitoring stations also compound the ability to model future climate trends and impacts, which is part of the nature of working in the north. The purpose of this volume is to create a resource for regional land and resource managers and researchers by synthesizing the latest research on the historical and current status of landscape-scale drivers (including anthropogenic activities) and ecosystem processes, future projected changes of each, and the effects of changes on important resources. Generally, each chapter is coauthored by researchers and land and natural resource managers from the United States and Canada.

Northwest Boreal Region↗
USGS2019

Does vegetation change over 28 years affect habitat use and reproductive success?

Individuals should prefer and use habitats that confer high fitness, but habitat use is not always adaptive. Vegetation in natural landscapes changes gradually and the ability of species to adaptively adjust their habitat use to long-term changes is largely unstudied. We studied nest patch and territory use over 28 yr in Orange-crowned Warblers ( Oreothlypis celata ) in a system that has undergone natural long-term changes in vegetation. Abundance of maple ( Acer grandidentatum ), its preferred nesting habitat, gradually declined from 1987 to 2015. We examined whether habitat use and its fitness consequences changed as the availability of preferred habitat decreased. We used resource selection function models to determine changes over time in the probability of using a nest patch given available patches, and the probability of using a territory given available territories. We estimated nest survival to evaluate changes over time in the fitness consequences of nest patch use. We also compared habitat use (nest patch and territory) and fitness (nest survival) between areas with naturally reduced abundance of maple and experimentally increased abundance of maple (fenced areas). Nest patch use depended on maple abundance and did not change drastically across 28 yr, even though the availability of preferred maple patches decreased over time. In contrast, nest survival tended to decrease over time. We did not see differences in nest patch use and nest survival between unfenced and fenced areas, unlike territory use, which increased with the abundance of maple in fenced areas and decreased in unfenced areas. Our study depicts one example of relatively unchanged habitat use in the face of decreased availability of preferred vegetation across years, with a resulting decrease in reproductive success. Investigating changes in habitat use and fitness consequences for animals exposed to long-term habitat change is necessary to understand adaptive behavioral responses.

Arizona↗
USGS2007

The USGS national geothermal resource assessment: An update

The U. S. Geological Survey (USGS) is working with the Department of Energy's (DOE) Geothermal Technologies Program and other geothermal organizations on a three-year effort to produce an updated assessment of available geothermal resources. The new assessment will introduce significant changes in the models for geothermal energy recovery factors, estimates of reservoir volumes, and limits to temperatures and depths for electric power production. It will also include the potential impact of evolving Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) technology. An important focus in the assessment project is on the development of geothermal resource models consistent with the production histories and observed characteristics of exploited geothermal fields. New models for the recovery of heat from heterogeneous, fractured reservoirs provide a physically realistic basis for evaluating the production potential of both natural geothermal reservoirs and reservoirs that may be created through the application of EGS technology. Project investigators have also made substantial progress studying geothermal systems and the factors responsible for their formation through studies in the Great Basin-Modoc Plateau region, Coso, Long Valley, the Imperial Valley and central Alaska, Project personnel are also entering the supporting data and resulting analyses into geospatial databases that will be produced as part of the resource assessment.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2014

The 3D Elevation Program: summary for Mississippi

Elevation data are essential to a broad range of applications, including forest resources management, wildlife and habitat management, national security, recreation, and many others. For the State of Mississippi, elevation data are critical for infrastructure and construction management, flood risk management, agriculture and precision farming, natural resources conservation, forest resources management, water supply and quality, and other business uses. Today, high-density light detection and ranging (lidar) data are the primary sources for deriving elevation models and other datasets. Federal, State, Tribal, and local agencies work in partnership to (1) replace data that are older and of lower quality and (2) provide coverage where publicly accessible data do not exist. A joint goal of State and Federal partners is to acquire consistent, statewide coverage to support existing and emerging applications enabled by lidar data. The National Enhanced Elevation Assessment evaluated multiple elevation data acquisition options to determine the optimal data quality and data replacement cycle relative to cost to meet the identified requirements of the user community. The evaluation demonstrated that lidar acquisition at quality level 2 for the conterminous United States and quality level 5 interferometric synthetic aperture radar (ifsar) data for Alaska with a 6- to 10-year acquisition cycle provided the highest benefit/cost ratios.The 3D Elevation Program (3DEP) initiative selected an 8-year acquisition cycle for the respective quality levels. 3DEP, managed by the U.S. Geological Survey, the Office of Management and Budget Circular A–16 lead agency for terrestrial elevation data, responds to the growing need for high-quality topographic data and a wide range of other 3D representations of the Nation’s natural and constructed features.

Mississippi↗
USGS2014

Evaluation of development options for Alaska North Slope viscous and heavy oil

Current estimates of discovered viscous and heavy oil in Alaska’s North Slope are 12 billion barrels of oil-in-place and 12–18 billion barrels of oil-in-place, respectively (see Appendix 1 for conversion to SI units). Since the early 1990s to the end of 2010, cumulative viscous oil production has amounted to 150 million barrels, and there has been no commercial production of heavy oil. During the last three decades, the industry has been challenged to develop technologies to commercially produce these untapped oil resources in this Arctic environment. In this paper, the general locations and geologic properties of the viscous oil-bearing West Sak/Schrader Bluff and heavy oil-bearing Ugnu stratigraphic intervals are described first. The geologic variability within these deposits and the evolution of technology have forced an incremental development approach, requiring costly field testing at the pilot scale of innovative extraction techniques. Although viscous oil is currently produced, its development is not mature, and firms appear to be still spending large sums on new approaches to improve recovery. The analysis specifies a representative viscous oil project and then applies a “real options” framework using simulation to determine whether the risked expected project value is sufficient to fund required expenditures on extraction process research and field testing. Computations show available field test funds to be highly sensitive to the operator’s hurdle rate of return as well as the range in magnitude of potential State revenues. The contribution of the paper is solving this problem using an approach where the extreme low return and high scenarios need only be specified, and where the uncertainties are modeled with beta distributions based on historical data or expert opinion.

Alaska↗
USGS1994

An integrated model of human-wildlife interdependence

This paper attempts to integrate wildlife-related ecologic and economic variables into an econometric model. The model reveals empirical evidence of the presumed interdependence of human-wildlife and the holistic nature of humanity's relationship to the ecosystem. Human use of biologic resources varies not only with income, education, and population, but also with sustainability of humankind's action relative to the quality and quantity of the supporting ecological base.

Ecological Economics↗
USGS2022

A quantitative soil-geomorphic framework for developing and mapping ecological site groups

Land management decisions need context about how landscapes will respond to different circumstances or actions. As ecologists’ understanding of nonlinear ecological dynamics has evolved into state-and-transition models (STMs), they have put more emphasis on defining and mapping the soil, geomorphological, and climate parameters that mediate these dynamics. The US Department of Agriculture Natural Resources Conservation Service ecological site descriptions (ESDs) have become the foremost system in classifying lands into ecological units based on STMs. However, an exhaustive inventory of ESDs has proved challenging to complete in the United States, and there have been questions about the consistency of detail in areas completed and the ability to objectively support some assertions made in existing ESDs. To address these issues, this study examines ESDs in the diverse Upper Colorado River region, where ESDs are only partially complete, to look at quantitative approaches to generalizing ecological site concepts based on unifying underlying soil, geomorphology, and climate patterns. Using existing ESDs and vegetation monitoring plot data, results show that a simple hierarchical soil geomorphic unit (SGU) framework based on topographic mediation of moisture, soil salinity, soil depth, slope, rock content, and soil texture can represent much of the ecological dynamics cataloged in ESDs. Analyses of reference plant production data, ecological state attribution, and regional monitoring data show that the new SGUs represent more variation than common climate parameters. This study also included predictively mapping SGUs at 30-m resolution (Kappa of 0.53, 74% agreement with top two predictions in validation). An optimized combination of SGUs with climate zones derived from an aridity index and maximum temperature of the hottest month resulted in an ecological site group framework that condensed over 826 unique ecological site records at various stages of completeness in the regional soil survey down to 35 intuitive and mappable ecological site groups.

Rangeland Ecology and Management↗