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USGS2013

Measuring environmental change in forest ecosystems by repeated soil sampling: a North American perspective

Environmental change is monitored in North America through repeated measurements of weather, stream and river flow, air and water quality, and most recently, soil properties. Some skepticism remains, however, about whether repeated soil sampling can effectively distinguish between temporal and spatial variability, and efforts to document soil change in forest ecosystems through repeated measurements are largely nascent and uncoordinated. In eastern North America, repeated soil sampling has begun to provide valuable information on environmental problems such as air pollution. This review synthesizes the current state of the science to further the development and use of soil resampling as an integral method for recording and understanding environmental change in forested settings. The origins of soil resampling reach back to the 19th century in England and Russia. The concepts and methodologies involved in forest soil resampling are reviewed and evaluated through a discussion of how temporal and spatial variability can be addressed with a variety of sampling approaches. Key resampling studies demonstrate the type of results that can be obtained through differing approaches. Ongoing, large-scale issues such as recovery from acidification, long-term N deposition, C sequestration, effects of climate change, impacts from invasive species, and the increasing intensification of soil management all warrant the use of soil resampling as an essential tool for environmental monitoring and assessment. Furthermore, with better awareness of the value of soil resampling, studies can be designed with a long-term perspective so that information can be efficiently obtained well into the future to address problems that have not yet surfaced.

Journal of Environmental Quality↗

USGS2016

Prey size and availability limits maximum size of rainbow trout in a large tailwater: insights from a drift-foraging bioenergetics model

The cold and clear water conditions present below many large dams create ideal conditions for the development of economically important salmonid fisheries. Many of these tailwater fisheries have experienced declines in the abundance and condition of large trout species, yet the causes of these declines remain uncertain. Here, we develop, assess, and apply a drift-foraging bioenergetics model to identify the factors limiting rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) growth in a large tailwater. We explored the relative importance of temperature, prey quantity, and prey size by constructing scenarios where these variables, both singly and in combination, were altered. Predicted growth matched empirical mass-at-age estimates, particularly for younger ages, demonstrating that the model accurately describes how current temperature and prey conditions interact to determine rainbow trout growth. Modeling scenarios that artificially inflated prey size and abundance demonstrate that rainbow trout growth is limited by the scarcity of large prey items and overall prey availability. For example, shifting 10% of the prey biomass to the 13 mm (large) length class, without increasing overall prey biomass, increased lifetime maximum mass of rainbow trout by 88%. Additionally, warmer temperatures resulted in lower predicted growth at current and lower levels of prey availability; however, growth was similar across all temperatures at higher levels of prey availability. Climate change will likely alter flow and temperature regimes in large rivers with corresponding changes to invertebrate prey resources used by fish. Broader application of drift-foraging bioenergetics models to build a mechanistic understanding of how changes to habitat conditions and prey resources affect growth of salmonids will benefit management of tailwater fisheries.

Arizona↗

USGS2019

Submarine permafrost map in the arctic modelled using 1D transient heat flux (SuPerMAP)

Offshore permafrost plays a role in the global climate system, but observations of permafrost thickness, state, and composition are limited to specific regions. The current global permafrost map shows potential offshore permafrost distribution based on bathymetry and global sea level rise. As a first‐order estimate, we employ a heat transfer model to calculate the subsurface temperature field. Our model uses dynamic upper boundary conditions that synthesize Earth System Model air temperature, ice mass distribution and thickness, and global sea level reconstruction and applies globally distributed geothermal heat flux as a lower boundary condition. Sea level reconstruction accounts for differences between marine and terrestrial sedimentation history. Sediment composition and pore water salinity are integrated in the model. Model runs for 450 ka for cross‐shelf transects were used to initialize the model for circumarctic modeling for the past 50 ka. Preindustrial submarine permafrost (i.e., cryotic sediment), modeled at 12.5‐km spatial resolution, lies beneath almost 2.5 ×10 6 km 2 of the Arctic shelf. Our simple modeling approach results in estimates of distribution of cryotic sediment that are similar to the current global map and recent seismically delineated permafrost distributions for the Beaufort and Kara seas, suggesting that sea level is a first‐order determinant for submarine permafrost distribution. Ice content and sediment thermal conductivity are also important for determining rates of permafrost thickness change. The model provides a consistent circumarctic approach to map submarine permafrost and to estimate the dynamics of permafrost in the past.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans↗

USGS2022

Water-level fluctuations and water temperature effects on young-of-year Largemouth Bass in a southwest irrigation reservoir

The effects of a warming climate will alter the hydrological cycles of arid southwestern U.S. reservoirs which primarily support agricultural needs, provide flood control, and generate hydroelectric power while secondarily supporting fish communities and sport fishing opportunities. The success of littoral spawning fishes depends on the timing and variability of water levels. The onset of drought between 2017 and 2018 provided an opportunity to evaluate the timing of hatch dates and relative abundance of young-of-year Largemouth Bass Micropterus salmoides across two water years of varying water temperatures and water levels in a southwestern U.S. reservoir. A retrospective analysis of otoliths in young-of-year Largemouth Bass revealed similar hatch dates in 2017 (14 April–29 May) and 2018 (13 April–28 May) despite differences in water temperature and water level rate of change. Median water temperature during hatch dates was greater in 2017 (median 19.0°C, range 14.3–24.4°C) than 2018 (17.6°C, range 13.5–21.7°C). Water level rate of change during hatch dates in 2017 was positive (+3.1 to +13.1 cm/d), which reflected reservoir filling. In contrast, water level rate of change during hatch dates in 2018 was negative (−8.5 to −0.6 cm/d), which reflected reservoir receding. Relative abundance of young-of-year fish was greater in 2017 (21.7 fish/h) when the reservoir was filling compared with relative abundance in 2018 (6.8 fish/h) when the reservoir was receding. The median growth rate was greater in 2017 (1.02 mm/d) when the reservoir was filling than in 2018 (0.82 mm/d) when the reservoir was receding. Despite differences in water temperature and contrasting reservoir levels between the two water years, the Largemouth Bass population in a southwest U.S. reservoir exhibited similar hatch dates reported for the species in southeastern and northeastern U.S. reservoirs. While water demand in the 21st century may exceed availability, the opportunity exists to collaborate with water managers to benefit Largemouth Bass populations in southwestern reservoirs.

New Mexico↗

USGS2009

Forecasting the combined effects of urbanization and climate change on stream ecosystems: from impacts to management options

Streams collect runoff, heat, and sediment from their watersheds, making them highly vulnerable to anthropogenic disturbances such as urbanization and climate change. Forecasting the effects of these disturbances using process-based models is critical to identifying the form and magnitude of likely impacts. Here, we integrate a new biotic model with four previously developed physical models (downscaled climate projections, stream hydrology, geomorphology, and water temperature) to predict how stream fish growth and reproduction will most probably respond to shifts in climate and urbanization over the next several decades. The biotic submodel couples dynamics in fish populations and habitat suitability to predict fish assemblage composition, based on readily available biotic information (preferences for habitat, temperature, and food, and characteristics of spawning) and day-to-day variability in stream conditions. We illustrate the model using Piedmont headwater streams in the Chesapeake Bay watershed of the USA, projecting ten scenarios: Baseline (low urbanization; no on-going construction; and present-day climate); one Urbanization scenario (higher impervious surface, lower forest cover, significant construction activity); four future climate change scenarios [Hadley CM3 and Parallel Climate Models under medium-high (A2) and medium-low (B2) emissions scenarios]; and the same four climate change scenarios plus Urbanization. Urbanization alone depressed growth or reproduction of 8 of 39 species, while climate change alone depressed 22 to 29 species. Almost every recreationally important species (i.e. trouts, basses, sunfishes) and six of the ten currently most common species were predicted to be significantly stressed. The combined effect of climate change and urbanization on adult growth was sometimes large compared to the effect of either stressor alone. Thus, the model predicts considerable change in fish assemblage composition, including loss of diversity. Synthesis and applications . The interaction of climate change and urban growth may entail significant reconfiguring of headwater streams, including a loss of ecosystem structure and services, which will be more costly than climate change alone. On local scales, stakeholders cannot control climate drivers but they can mitigate stream impacts via careful land use. Therefore, to conserve stream ecosystems, we recommend that proactive measures be taken to insure against species loss or severe population declines. Delays will inevitably exacerbate the impacts of both climate change and urbanization on headwater systems.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2006

Shrinking ponds in subarctic Alaska based on 1950-2002 remotely sensed images

Over the past 50 years, Alaska has experienced a warming climate with longer growing seasons, increased potential evapotranspiration, and permafrost warming. Research from the Seward Peninsula and Kenai Peninsula has demonstrated a substantial landscape-level trend in the reduction of surface water and number of closed-basin ponds. We investigated whether this drying trend occurred at nine other regions throughout Alaska. One study region was from the Arctic Coastal Plain where depp permafrost occurs continuously across the landscape. The other eight study regions were from the boreal forest regions where discontinuous permafrost occurs. Mean annual precipitation across the study regions ranged from 100 to over 700 min yr-1. We used remotely sensed imagery from the 1950s to 2002 to inventory over 10,000 closed-basin ponds from at least three periods from this time span. We found a reduction in the area and number of shallow, closed-basin ponds for all boreal regions. In contrast, the Arctic Coastal Plain region had negligible change in the area of closed-basin ponds. Since the 1950s, surface water area of closed-basin ponds included in this analysis decreased by 31 to 4 percent, and the total number of closed-basin ponds surveyed within each study region decreased from 54 to 5 percent. There was a significant increasing trend in annual mean temperature and potential evapotranspiration since the 1950s for all study regions. There was no significant trend in annual precipitation during the same period. The regional trend of shrinking ponds may be due to increased drainage as permafrost warms, or increased evapotranspiration during a warmer and extended growing season. Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research G: Biogeosciences↗

USGS2002

Linking the pacific decadal oscillation to seasonal stream discharge patterns in Southeast Alaska

This study identified and examined differences in Southeast Alaskan streamflow patterns between the two most recent modes of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). Identifying relationships between the PDO and specific regional phenomena is important for understanding climate variability, interpreting historical hydrological variability, and improving water-resources forecasting. Stream discharge data from six watersheds in Southeast Alaska were divided into cold-PDO (1947-1976) and warm-PDO (1977-1998) subsets. For all watersheds, the average annual streamflows during cold-PDO years were not significantly different from warm-PDO years. Monthly and seasonal discharges, however, did differ significantly between the two subsets, with the warm-PDO winter flows being typically higher than the cold-PDO winter flows and the warm-PDO summer flows being typically lower than the cold-PDO flows. These results were consistent with and driven by observed temperature and snowfall patterns for the region. During warm-PDO winters, precipitation fell as rain and ran-off immediately, causing higher than normal winter streamflow. During cold-PDO winters, precipitation was stored as snow and ran off during the summer snowmelt, creating greater summer streamflows. The Mendenhall River was unique in that it experienced higher flows for all seasons during the warm-PDO relative to the cold-PDO. The large amount of Mendenhall River discharge caused by glacial melt during warm-PDO summers offset any flow reduction caused by lack of snow accumulation during warm-PDO winters. The effect of the PDO on Southeast Alaskan watersheds differs from other regions of the Pacific Coast of North America in that monthly/seasonal discharge patterns changed dramatically with the switch in PDO modes but annual discharge did not. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Journal of Hydrology↗

USGS2010

Predictions of turbidity due to enhanced sediment resuspension resulting from sea-level rise on a fringing Coral Reef: Evidence from Molokai, Hawaii

Accelerating sea-level rise associated with global climate change will affect sedimentary processes on coral reefs and other shoreline environments by increasing energy and sediment resuspension. On reefs, sedimentation is known to increase coral stress and bleaching as particles that settle on coral surfaces interfere with photosynthesis and feeding, and turbidity induced by suspended sediment reduces incident light levels. Using relationships developed from observations of wave orbital velocity, water-surface elevation, and suspended-sediment concentration on a fringing reef flat of Molokai, Hawaii, predictions of the average daily maximum in suspended-sediment concentration increase from ~11 mg/l to ~20 mg/l with 20 cm sea-level rise. The duration of time concentrations exceeds 10 mg/l increases from 9 to 37. An evaluation of the reduction of wave energy flux through breaking and frictional dissipation across the reef flat shows an increase of ~80 relative to the present will potentially reach the shoreline as sea level increases by 20 cm. Where the shoreline exists on low, flat terrain, the increased energy could cause significant erosion of the shoreline. Considering the sediment budget, the sediment flux is predicted to increase and removal of fine-grained sediment may be expedited on some fringing reefs, and sediment in storage on the inner reef could ultimately be reduced. However, increased shoreline erosion may add sediment and offset removal from the reef flat. The shifts in sediment availability and transport that will occur as result of a modest increase in sea level have wide application to fringing coral reefs elsewhere, as well as other shoreline environments. ?? 2010 the Coastal Education & Research Foundation (CERF).

Journal of Coastal Research↗

USGS2008

Rainfall effects on rare annual plants

Variation in climate is predicted to increase over much of the planet this century. Forecasting species persistence with climate change thus requires understanding of how populations respond to climate variability, and the mechanisms underlying this response. Variable rainfall is well known to drive fluctuations in annual plant populations, yet the degree to which population response is driven by between-year variation in germination cueing, water limitation or competitive suppression is poorly understood. We used demographic monitoring and population models to examine how three seed banking, rare annual plants of the California Channel Islands respond to natural variation in precipitation and their competitive environments. Island plants are particularly threatened by climate change because their current ranges are unlikely to overlap regions that are climatically favourable in the future. Species showed 9 to 100-fold between-year variation in plant density over the 5–12 years of censusing, including a severe drought and a wet El Niño year. During the drought, population sizes were low for all species. However, even in non-drought years, population sizes and per capita growth rates showed considerable temporal variation, variation that was uncorrelated with total rainfall. These population fluctuations were instead correlated with the temperature after the first major storm event of the season, a germination cue for annual plants. Temporal variation in the density of the focal species was uncorrelated with the total vegetative cover in the surrounding community, suggesting that variation in competitive environments does not strongly determine population fluctuations. At the same time, the uncorrelated responses of the focal species and their competitors to environmental variation may favour persistence via the storage effect. Population growth rate analyses suggested differential endangerment of the focal annuals. Elasticity analyses and life table response experiments indicated that variation in germination has the same potential as the seeds produced per germinant to drive variation in population growth rates, but only the former was clearly related to rainfall. Synthesis . Our work suggests that future changes in the timing and temperatures associated with the first major rains, acting through germination, may more strongly affect population persistence than changes in season-long rainfall.

Journal of Ecology↗

USGS2010

Distribution and trends in reference evapotranspiration in the North China plain

The distribution and trends in reference evapotranspiration (ET(o)) are extremely important to water resources planning for agriculture, and it is widely believed that rates of ET(o) will increase with global warming. This is a big concern in China, where water deficits are common in the North China Plain (NCP). In this study, Penman-Monteith reference evapotranspiration at 26 meteorological stations during 1961-2006 in and around the NCP was calculated. The temporal variations and spatial distribution of ET(o) were analyzed and the causes for the variations were discussed. The results showed that: (1) the NCP was divided into two climatic regions based on aridity values: a semiarid region that accounts for 69% of the area and subhumid regions that made of the remaining area; (2) over the entire NCP, the highest annual ET(o) occurred in the central and western areas and the lowest total ET(o) was observed in the east. Comparing the mean monthly ET(o) and annual ET(o) distributions, the high ET(o) values from May through July mainly determined the annual ET(o) distribution; (3) for the whole NCP, annual ET(o) showed a statistically significant decrease of 11.92 mm/decade over the 46 years of data collection in the NCP or approximately a 5% total decrease compared to the ET(o) values in 1961; (4) to determine which variable has the greatest effect on the decrease in ET(o), decadal changes were observed for daily values of maximum air temperature (+0.16 degrees C), minimum air temperature (+0.35 degrees C), net radiation (-0.13 MJ m(-2)), and mean wind speed (-0.09 m s(-1)). These results indicate that the decreasing net radiation and wind speed had a bigger impact on ET(o) rates than the increases observed by the maximum and minimum temperatures.

North China Plain↗

USGS2024

Improved efficient physics-based computational modeling of regional wave-driven coastal flooding for reef-lined coastlines

Coastal flooding affects low-lying communities worldwide and is expected to increase with climate change, especially along reef-lined coasts, where wave-driven flooding is particularly prevalent. However, current regional modeling approaches are either insufficient or too computationally expensive to accurately assess risks in these complex environments. This study introduces and validates an improved computationally efficient and physics-based approach to compute dynamic wave-driven regional flooding on reef-lined coasts. We coupled a simplified-physics flood model (SFINCS) with a one-dimensional wave transformation model (XBeach-1D). To assess the performance of the proposed approach, we compared its results with results from a fully resolving two-dimensional wave transformation model (XBeach-2D). We applied this approach for a range of storms and sea-level rise scenarios for two contrasting reef-lined coastal geomorphologies: one low relief area and one high relief area. Our findings reveal that SFINCS coupled with XBeach-1D generates flood extents comparable to those produced by XBeach-2D, with a hit rate of 92%. However, this method tends to underpredict the flood extent of weaker, high-frequency storms and overpredict stronger, low-frequency storms. Across scenarios, our approach overpredicted the mean flood water depth, with a positive bias of 7 cm and root mean square difference of 15 cm. Offering approximately 100 times greater computational efficiency than its two-dimensional XBeach counterpart, this flood modeling technique is recommended for wave-driven flood modeling in scenarios with high computational demands, such as modeling numerous scenarios or undertaking detailed regional-scale modeling.

Journal of Marine Science & Engineering↗

USGS2010

Carbon, water, and energy fluxes in a semiarid cold desert grassland during and following multiyear drought

The net exchanges of carbon dioxide, water vapor, and energy were examined in a perennial Colorado Plateau grassland for 5 years. The study began within a multiyear drought and continued as the drought ended. The grassland is located near the northern boundary of the influence of the North American monsoon, a major climatic feature bringing summer rain. Following rain, evapotranspiration peaked above 8 mm d -1 but was usually much smaller (2-4 mm d -1 ). Net productivity of the grassland was low compared to other ecosystems, with peak hourly net CO 2 uptake in the spring of 4 (mu or u)mol m -2 s -1 and springtime carbon gain in the range of 42 + or - 11 g C m -2 (based on fluxes) to 72 + or - 55 g C m -2 (based on carbon stocks; annual carbon gain was not quantified). Drought decreased gross ecosystem productivity (GEP) and total ecosystem respiration, with a much larger GEP decrease. Monsoon rains led to respiratory pulses, lasting a few days at most, and only rarely resulted in net CO 2 gain, despite the fact that C 4 grasses dominated plant cover. Minor CO 2 uptake was observed in fall following rain. Spring CO 2 uptake was regulated by deep soil moisture, which depended on precipitation in the prior fall and winter. The lack of CO 2 uptake during the monsoon and the dependence of GEP on deep soil moisture are in contrast with arid grasslands of the warm deserts. Cold desert grasslands are most likely to be impacted by future changes in winter and not summer precipitation.

Colorado Plateau↗

USGS2016

Implications of projected climate change for groundwater recharge in the western United States

Existing studies on the impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge are either global or basin/location-specific. The global studies lack the specificity to inform decision making, while the local studies do little to clarify potential changes over large regions (major river basins, states, or groups of states), a scale often important in the development of water policy. An analysis of the potential impact of climate change on groundwater recharge across the western United States (west of 100° longitude) is presented synthesizing existing studies and applying current knowledge of recharge processes and amounts. Eight representative aquifers located across the region were evaluated. For each aquifer published recharge budget components were converted into four standard recharge mechanisms: diffuse, focused, irrigation, and mountain-systems recharge. Future changes in individual recharge mechanisms and total recharge were then estimated for each aquifer. Model-based studies of projected climate-change effects on recharge were available and utilized for half of the aquifers. For the remainder, forecasted changes in temperature and precipitation were logically propagated through each recharge mechanism producing qualitative estimates of direction of changes in recharge only (not magnitude). Several key patterns emerge from the analysis. First, the available estimates indicate average declines of 10–20% in total recharge across the southern aquifers, but with a wide range of uncertainty that includes no change. Second, the northern set of aquifers will likely incur little change to slight increases in total recharge. Third, mountain system recharge is expected to decline across much of the region due to decreased snowpack, with that impact lessening with higher elevation and latitude. Factors contributing the greatest uncertainty in the estimates include: (1) limited studies quantitatively coupling climate projections to recharge estimation methods using detailed, process-based numerical models; (2) a generally poor understanding of hydrologic flowpaths and processes in mountain systems; (3) difficulty predicting the response of focused recharge to potential changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events; and (4) unconstrained feedbacks between climate, irrigation practices, and recharge in highly developed aquifer systems.

Journal of Hydrology↗

USGS2023

A river basin spatial model to quantitively advance understanding of riverine tree response dynamics to water availability and hydrological management

Ecological condition continues to decline in arid and semi-arid river basins globally due to hydrological over-abstraction combined with changing climatic conditions. Whilst provision of water for the environment has been a primary approach to alleviate ecological decline, how to accurately monitor changes in riverine trees at fine spatial and temporal scales, remains a substantial challenge. This is further complicated by constantly changing water availability across expansive river basins with varying climatic zones. Within, we combine rare, fine-scale, high frequency temporal in-situ field collected data with machine learning and remote sensing, to provide a robust model that enables broadscale monitoring of physiological tree water stress response to environmental changes via actual evapotranspiration (ET). Physiological variation of Eucalyptus camaldulensis (River Red Gum) and E. largiflorens (Black Box) trees across 10 study locations in the southern Murray-Darling Basin, Australia, was captured instantaneously using sap flow sensors, substantially reducing tree response lags encountered by monitoring visual canopy changes. Actual ET measurement of both species was used to bias correct a national spatial ET product where a Random Forest model was trained using continuous timeseries of in-situ data of up to four years. Precise monthly AMLETT ( A ustralia-wide M achine L earning ET for T rees) ET outputs in 30 m pixel resolution from 2012 to 2021, were derived by incorporating additional remote sensing layers such as soil moisture, land surface temperature, radiation and EVI and NDVI in the Random Forest model. Landsat and Sentinal-2 correlation results between in-situ ET and AMLETT ET returned R 2 of 0.94 (RMSE 6.63 mm period −1 ) and 0.92 (RMSE 6.89 mm period −1 ), respectively. In comparison, correlation between in-situ ET and a national ET product returned R 2 of 0.44 (RMSE 34.08 mm period −1 ) highlighting the need for bias correction to generate accurate absolute ET values. The AMLETT method presented here, enhances environmental management in river basins worldwide. Such robust broadscale monitoring can inform water accounting and importantly, assist decisions on where to prioritize water for the environment to restore and protect key ecological assets and preserve floodplain and riparian ecological function.

The Journal of Environmental Management↗

USGS2021

Changing climate drives future streamflow declines and challenges in meeting water demand across the southwestern United States

Society and the environment in the arid southwestern United States depend on reliable water availability, yet current water use outpaces supply. Water demand is projected to grow in the future and climate change is expected to reduce supply. To adapt, water managers need robust estimates of future regional water supply to support management decisions. To address this need, we estimate future streamflow in seven water resource regions in the southwestern U.S. using a new SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) streamflow model. We present streamflow projections corresponding to input data from seven climate models and two greenhouse gas Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and 8.5) for three, thirty-year intervals centered on the 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s, and for a historical thirty year interval centered on the 1990s. Across water resource regions, about half of the RCP4.5 models (51%) and two thirds of the RCP8.5 models (67%) indicate decreases in streamflow in the 2080s relative to the historical period. Models project maximum decreases in streamflow of 36–80% in all water resource regions for all periods and RCPs relative to historical streamflow, and maximum streamflow decreases of up to 20–45% in the 2080s at sites along the Colorado River used for measuring compliance with interstate and international water agreements. Headwaters are projected to experience the greatest declines, with substantial downstream implications. Among these estimates, the streamflows from models forced with RCP8.5 tend to be lower than those forced with RCP4.5. Not all climate models, times, and RCPs project widespread streamflow declines. The most ubiquitous streamflow increases are projected to occur in the 2030s under RCP4.5. Later time periods and enhanced greenhouse gas forcings indicate smaller regions of streamflow increase and lower accumulated streamflows, suggesting that limiting or reducing greenhouse gas concentrations could support future water availability. Although some possible streamflow increases are promising, the modest and spatially limited increases in streamflow projected for later time periods are still unlikely to be sufficient to meet the projected water demand. These results inform the likelihood of future water agreement compliance, and support developing strategies to balance water supply and demand.

Arizona, California, Colorado Idaho, Nevada, New M↗

USGS2025

Are we heading towards a global decrease in coregonine catches?

Coregonines have specific ecological needs, making them potentially very vulnerable to changes in lake conditions. A contemporary concern is that many lakes worldwide are experiencing environmental changes due to anthropogenic pressure and climate warming. Here, we compiled long-term data of coregonine catches from 27 lakes from three continents in the northern hemisphere. Declines in catch were observed in 67% of the lakes during the first two decades of the 21 st century, with a significant trend (p-value<0.05) in 44% of the cases. An analysis to determine whether trends are globally linked to environmental conditions and specific lake attributes was carried out on 26 lakes for the period 2000–2019. Several local declines in catches had already been documented in the literature and are likely to be due to local forcing such as nutrients, species invasions and changes in fishing practices. Nevertheless, on a global scale, our results indicate that lakes, which exhibited a significant decrease in catch were larger and more nutrient-poor than other lakes. The rate of change in catches appeared to be related to the trophic state of the lake. The specific effect of warming is difficult to determine during the studied period. When warming occurred outside the period of egg incubation, decreasing trends were more frequently observed in nutrient-poor than in mesotrophic lakes. In conclusion, our findings suggest that achieving oligo- or ultraoligotrophic conditions, as required in developed countries to control phytoplankton blooms and enhance water quality, could pose significant challenges for future management of coregonine fisheries.

International Journal of Limnology↗

USGS2015

End-of-winter snow depth variability on glaciers in Alaska

A quantitative understanding of snow thickness and snow water equivalent (SWE) on glaciers is essential to a wide range of scientific and resource management topics. However, robust SWE estimates are observationally challenging, in part because SWE can vary abruptly over short distances in complex terrain due to interactions between topography and meteorological processes. In spring 2013, we measured snow accumulation on several glaciers around the Gulf of Alaska using both ground- and helicopter-based ground-penetrating radar surveys, complemented by extensive ground truth observations. We found that SWE can be highly variable (40% difference) over short spatial scales (tens to hundreds of meters), especially in the ablation zone where the underlying ice surfaces are typically rough. Elevation provides the dominant basin-scale influence on SWE, with gradients ranging from 115 to 400 mm/100 m. Regionally, total accumulation and the accumulation gradient are strongly controlled by a glacier's distance from the coastal moisture source. Multiple linear regressions, used to calculate distributed SWE fields, show that robust results require adequate sampling of the true distribution of multiple terrain parameters. Final SWE estimates (comparable to winter balances) show reasonable agreement with both the Parameter-elevation Relationships on Independent Slopes Model climate data set (9–36% difference) and the U.S. Geological Survey Alaska Benchmark Glaciers (6–36% difference). All the glaciers in our study exhibit substantial sensitivity to changing snow-rain fractions, regardless of their location in a coastal or continental climate. While process-based SWE projections remain elusive, the collection of ground-penetrating radar (GPR)-derived data sets provides a greatly enhanced perspective on the spatial distribution of SWE and will pave the way for future work that may eventually allow such projections.

Alaska↗

USGS2011

Millennial precipitation reconstruction for the Jemez Mountains, New Mexico, reveals changing drought signal

Drought is a recurring phenomenon in the American Southwest. Since the frequency and severity of hydrologic droughts and other hydroclimatic events are of critical importance to the ecology and rapidly growing human population of this region, knowledge of long-term natural hydroclimatic variability is valuable for resource managers and policy-makers. An October–June precipitation reconstruction for the period AD 824–2007 was developed from multi-century tree-ring records of Pseudotsuga menziesii (Douglas-fir), Pinus strobiformis (Southwestern white pine) and Pinus ponderosa (Ponderosa pine) for the Jemez Mountains in Northern New Mexico. Calibration and verification statistics for the period 1896–2007 show a high level of skill, and account for a significant portion of the observed variance (>50%) irrespective of which period is used to develop or verify the regression model. Split-sample validation supports our use of a reconstruction model based on the full period of reliable observational data (1896–2007). A recent segment of the reconstruction (2000–2006) emerges as the driest 7-year period sensed by the trees in the entire record. That this period was only moderately dry in precipitation anomaly likely indicates accentuated stress from other factors, such as warmer temperatures. Correlation field maps of actual and reconstructed October–June total precipitation, sea surface temperatures and 500-mb geopotential heights show characteristics that are similar to those indicative of El Niño–Southern Oscillation patterns, particularly with regard to ocean and atmospheric conditions in the equatorial and north Pacific. Our 1184-year reconstruction of hydroclimatic variability provides long-term perspective on current and 20th century wet and dry events in Northern New Mexico, is useful to guide expectations of future variability, aids sustainable water management, provides scenarios for drought planning and as inputs for hydrologic models under a broader range of conditions than those provided by historical climate records.

New Mexico↗