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At least 343 records · Page 19Linked to original sources
USGS2019

A mechanistic understanding of ecological responses to land-use change in headwater streams

Anthropogenic activities, such as oil and natural gas development (ONGD), have significantly altered the landscape. It is often challenging to identify the mechanistic processes underlying ecological responses to land-use change (LUC). In aquatic ecosystems, alterations to habitat and food availability and water quality associated with increased LUC are key mechanistic pathways that deserve management consideration. We used structural equation modeling to evaluate how LUC associated with ONGD could influence macroinvertebrate and fish across 40 sites in six headwater streams in the Wyoming Range of the Upper Green River Basin, Wyoming. The most important mechanistic pathway varied, but responses were frequently driven by a direct effect of LUC or related to changes in food availability and water quality. Habitat complexity was the least important mechanistic pathway in our models. Our results also highlight that responses may reflect an organism's degree of habitat or resource specialization and/or sensitivity to changes in water quality. Habitat pathways were more important for habitat specialists (e.g., Mottled Sculpin, Cottus bairdii ), food pathways were more important for food specialists (e.g., Colorado River Cutthroat Trout, Oncorhynchus clarki pleuriticus ; Mountain Sucker, Catostomus platyrhynchus ), and sensitivity to increased salinity was important for intolerant species (e.g., O. clarki , C. bairdii , and predatory macroinvertebrates). Continued identification of the specific mechanisms underlying species’ responses to increased LUC will aid in the conservation of ecologically and economically important species.

Wyoming↗
USGS2019

Decision-making in agent-based modeling: A current review and future prospectus

All basic processes of ecological populations involve decisions; when and where to move, when and what to eat, and whether to fight or flee. Yet decisions and the underlying principles of decision-making have been difficult to integrate into the classical population-level models of ecology. Certainly, there is a long history of modeling individuals' searching behavior, diet selection, or conflict dynamics within social interactions. When all the individuals are given certain simple rules to govern their decision-making processes, the resultant population–level models have yielded important generalizations and theory. But it is also recognized that such models do not represent the way real individuals decide on actions. Factors that influence a decision include the organism's environment with its dynamic rewards and risks, the complex internal state of the organism, and its imperfect knowledge of the environment. In the case of animals, it may also involve complex social factors, and experience and learning, which vary among individuals. The way that all factors are weighed and processed to lead to decisions is a major area of behavioral theory. While classic population-level modeling is limited in its ability to integrate decision-making in its actual complexity, the development of individual- or agent-based models (IBM/ABMs) (we use ABM throughout to designate both “agent-based modeling” and an “agent-based model”) has opened the possibility of describing the way that decisions are made, and their effects, in minute detail. Over the years, these models have increased in size and complexity. Current ABMs can simulate thousands of individuals in realistic environments, and with highly detailed internal physiology, perception and ability to process the perceptions and make decisions based on those and their internal states. The implementation of decision-making in ABMs ranges from fairly simple to highly complex; the process of an individual deciding on an action can occur through the use of logical and simple (if-then) rules to more sophisticated neural networks and genetic algorithms. The purpose of this paper is to give an overview of the ways in which decisions are integrated into a variety of ABMs and to give a prospectus on the future of modeling of decisions in ABMs.

Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2007

Natural restoration of degraded rangeland ecosystem in Heshan hilly land

This study examined the 20-yr trend of natural restoration of a degraded rangeland ecosystem after disturbance in Heshan hilly land. The results showed that herbs and shrubs were the dominant plants in the community and only a small number of the shade-intolerant tree species had invaded, showing the characteristics of assembly of pioneer communities. The organic matter content, soluble nitrogen, available phosphorus and available potassium had recovered to the level of the local climax community. Part of the ecological functions such as water and soil conservation had also recovered. While the functions of water and soil conservation recovered first, more time was needed for productivity and other functions to completely recover, suggesting the idiosyncratic nature of different ecosystem variables in response to time and microclimate change. Particularly, nutrient cycling recovered very slowly by natural restoration and artificial plantation may be necessary to accelerate the restoration process. ?? 2007 Ecological Society of China.

Acta Ecologica Sinica↗
USGS2003

Predicting coastal retreat in the Florida Big Bend region of the Gulf Coast under climate change induced sea-level rise

Many wildlife preserves and refuges in coastal areas of our nation are slowly being inundated by rising sea-level. Land elevation and tidal flooding are key factors controlling the extent and zonation of coastal habitats. Warming of our global environment threatens to speed the rate of sea-level rise and perhaps further amplify the detrimental effects of tropical storms, droughts, and lightning fires. A field and modeling study was conducted to determine the current status of emergent vegetation and surficial hydrology and to predict marsh transgression under rising sea-level. Field surveys were conducted to relate vegetation cover and ecotones to surface elevation and tidal inundation. A regional site application of a GIS-based simulation model, WETLANDS, was developed to predict ecosystem response to changing sea-level conditions on a coastal reach of the Big Bend region in northwest Florida. The WETLANDS model contains functional probabilities of community tolerance to flooding conditions that dictate the rate and process of ecological succession and coastal retreat. Map information of hypsography and bathymetry of the study area were digitized and interpolated to construct a digital elevation model. Classified thematic mapper imagery of aquatic and terrestrial habitat at a community level was used to initialize model simulation by vegetative type. Model simulations were generated to predict a likelihood index of habitat change and conversion under different scenarios of sea-level rise. The WETLANDS model was applied to track the process and pattern of coastal inundation over space and time for low, mid, and high sea-level rise projections of 15, 50, and 95 cm over the next century. Model results indicated that major portions of this coastal zone will be permanently inundated by 2100, bringing about a combined migration of marsh habitat and displacement of forest habitat. Results show that lowland pine forests will undergo retreat on the order of thousands of hectares over the 21st century. Coastal marsh extent may actually increase slightly as a function of the low lying topography. Socioeconomic implications may be nominal for this area given its remote and fairly undeveloped and protected coast-202 line. The model offers a technological tool for research and policy purposes that allows for effective land and water management, risk assessment, and cumulative impact analysis of wetland systems and landscapes.

Florida↗
USGS2010

Occam's shadow: levels of analysis in evolutionary ecology - where to next?

Evolutionary ecology is the study of evolutionary processes, and the ecological conditions that influence them. A fundamental paradigm underlying the study of evolution is natural selection. Although there are a variety of operational definitions for natural selection in the literature, perhaps the most general one is that which characterizes selection as the process whereby heritable variation in fitness associated with variation in one or more phenotypic traits leads to intergenerational change in the frequency distribution of those traits. The past 20 years have witnessed a marked increase in the precision and reliability of our ability to estimate one or more components of fitness and characterize natural selection in wild populations, owing particularly to significant advances in methods for analysis of data from marked individuals. In this paper, we focus on several issues that we believe are important considerations for the application and development of these methods in the context of addressing questions in evolutionary ecology. First, our traditional approach to estimation often rests upon analysis of aggregates of individuals, which in the wild may reflect increasingly non-random (selected) samples with respect to the trait(s) of interest. In some cases, analysis at the aggregate level, rather than the individual level, may obscure important patterns. While there are a growing number of analytical tools available to estimate parameters at the individual level, and which can cope (to varying degrees) with progressive selection of the sample, the advent of new methods does not reduce the need to consider carefully the appropriate level of analysis in the first place. Estimation should be motivated a priori by strong theoretical analysis. Doing so provides clear guidance, in terms of both (i) assisting in the identification of realistic and meaningful models to include in the candidate model set, and (ii) providing the appropriate context under which the results are interpreted. Second, while it is true that selection (as defined) operates at the level of the individual, the selection gradient is often (if not generally) conditional on the abundance of the population. As such, it may be important to consider estimating transition rates conditional on both the parameter values of the other individuals in the population (or at least their distribution), and population abundance. This will undoubtedly pose a considerable challenge, for both single- and multi-strata applications. It will also require renewed consideration of the estimation of abundance, especially for open populations. Thirdly, selection typically operates on dynamic, individually varying traits. Such estimation may require characterizing fitness in terms of individual plasticity in one or more state variables, constituting analysis of the norms of reaction of individuals to variable environments. This can be quite complex, especially for traits that are under facultative control. Recent work has indicated that the pattern of selection on such traits is conditional on the relative rates of movement among and frequency of spatially heterogeneous habitats, suggesting analyses of evolution of life histories in open populations can be misleading in some cases.

Journal of Applied Statistics↗
USGS2025

The story of the Penobscot River Ecology Mural: A 10-step process for scientists to create public art

Rivers are home to a wide variety of biota, including fishes, amphibians, reptiles, birds, freshwater mussels, aquatic insects, and microscopic organisms that fill unique niches to support broader ecosystem functions. While the general public may be aware of recreationally relevant biological life (e.g., fishes and insects to model flyfishing flies from), they may not be aware of more obscure yet important taxa. For example, freshwater mussels (Unionidae) improve water quality and clarity of rivers through filtration ( Vaughn, 2018), which is vital to riverine ecosystems. Despite this importance, lack of public knowledge about freshwater mussels is the second biggest challenge to their management ( Bouska et al., 2018). How do we best get the public to see value in underappreciated taxa to support their conservation? Public art installations can spread awareness about science effectively because they distill information for broader audiences, are eye-catching, and reach people through an emotional, aesthetic, and personal lens ( Thompson et al., 2023). While invertebrates are generally viewed by the public with fear and aversion ( Kellert, 1993) this can be ameliorated through interaction and learning, particularly for children ( Miller et al., 2025). Through cross-disciplinary collaboration between artists, scientists and the local community, we created the “Penobscot River Ecology Mural,” a scientifically informed artwork featuring underappreciated taxa like mussels and insects. In this article, we will elucidate the story of how we successfully made this piece through 10 steps, which provide a blueprint for future endeavors.

Maine↗
USGS2013

Cross-scale modeling of surface temperature and tree seedling establishment inmountain landscapes

Abstract: Introduction: Estimating surface temperature from above-ground field measurements is important for understanding the complex landscape patterns of plant seedling survival and establishment, processes which occur at heights of only several centimeters. Currently, future climate models predict temperature at 2 m above ground, leaving ground-surface microclimate not well characterized. Methods: Using a network of field temperature sensors and climate models, a ground-surface temperature method was used to estimate microclimate variability of minimum and maximum temperature. Temperature lapse rates were derived from field temperature sensors and distributed across the landscape capturing differences in solar radiation and cold air drainages modeled at a 30-m spatial resolution. Results: The surface temperature estimation method used for this analysis successfully estimated minimum surface temperatures on north-facing, south-facing, valley, and ridgeline topographic settings, and when compared to measured temperatures yielded an R2 of 0.88, 0.80, 0.88, and 0.80, respectively. Maximum surface temperatures generally had slightly more spatial variability than minimum surface temperatures, resulting in R2 values of 0.86, 0.77, 0.72, and 0.79 for north-facing, south-facing, valley, and ridgeline topographic settings. Quasi-Poisson regressions predicting recruitment of Quercus kelloggii (black oak) seedlings from temperature variables were significantly improved using these estimates of surface temperature compared to air temperature modeled at 2 m. Conclusion: Predicting minimum and maximum ground-surface temperatures using a downscaled climate model coupled with temperature lapse rates estimated from field measurements provides a method for modeling temperature effects on plant recruitment. Such methods could be applied to improve projections of species’ range shifts under climate change. Areas of complex topography can provide intricate microclimates that may allow species to redistribute locally as climate changes.

Ecological Processes↗
USGS2016

Groundwater exchanges near a channelized versus unmodified stream mouth discharging to a subalpine lake

The terminus of a stream flowing into a larger river, pond, lake, or reservoir is referred to as the stream-mouth reach or simply the stream mouth . The terminus is often characterized by rapidly changing thermal and hydraulic conditions that result in abrupt shifts in surface water/groundwater (sw/gw) exchange patterns, creating the potential for unique biogeochemical processes and ecosystems. Worldwide shoreline development is changing stream-lake interfaces through channelization of stream mouths, i.e., channel straightening and bank stabilization to prevent natural meandering at the shoreline. In the central Sierra Nevada (USA), Lake Tahoe's shoreline has an abundance of both “unmodified” (i.e., not engineered though potentially impacted by broader watershed engineering) and channelized stream mouths. Two representative stream mouths along the lake's north shore, one channelized and one unmodified, were selected to compare and contrast water and heat exchanges. Hydraulic and thermal properties were monitored during separate campaigns in September 2012 and 2013 and sw/gw exchanges were estimated within the stream mouth-shoreline continuum. Heat-flow and water-flow patterns indicated clear differences in the channelized versus the unmodified stream mouth. For the channelized stream mouth, relatively modulated, cool-temperature, low-velocity longitudinal streambed flows discharged offshore beneath warmer buoyant lakeshore water. In contrast, a seasonal barrier bar formed across the unmodified stream mouth, creating higher-velocity subsurface flow paths and higher diurnal temperature variations relative to shoreline water. As a consequence, channelization altered sw/gw exchanges potentially altering biogeochemical processing and ecological systems in and near the stream mouth.

California, Nevada↗
USGS2026

New methods provide a 300–year perspective on modern area burned in two wilderness areas of the southwest United States

Climate change, expanding human ignitions, and increased fuels from fire exclusion are driving increases in area burned and fire severity in dry conifer forests of the western United States. Increasing area burned is occurring against the backdrop of a large fire deficit caused by over a century of fire exclusion. A key land management question is whether historically frequent fire regimes can be restored. Accurate estimates of historical annual area burned (prior to circa 1900) are necessary to evaluate modern area burned (after circa 1900), but are difficult to derive, and have rarely been calibrated or validated against modern fires, leaving their accuracy uncertain. We developed new methods to use tree-ring fire scars to reconstruct historical annual area burned and compare it to modern annual area burned. We focused on two southwestern US wilderness areas—Saguaro National Park (SAGU) and the Gila Wilderness (GILA)—that have a long history of using prescribed and managed fires. The abundant modern low- and moderate-severity fires allowed us to (1) calibrate and validate the fire-scar models against mapped fires to derive the first uncertainty estimates of reconstructed annual area burned and (2) test whether active fire management can help restore annual area burned to historical levels. A multi-model ensemble consisting of 10 individual member models accurately estimated area burned of mapped modern fires with no consistent biases. Each member model had distinct strengths and assumptions that made them suitable for specific applications (e.g., the synchrony model is easily applied, and Thiessen polygons provide spatially explicit area burned estimates). The accurate reconstruction of modern area burned from relatively sparse fire-scar data at GILA suggests that dense grids may not be necessary for accurate reconstructions. Our findings reveal that despite the near absence of fire in the early 20th century, both annual and 20-year sums of area burned in recent decades are back within historical levels at GILA, and trending toward historical levels at SAGU. These results demonstrate that fire management can help restore the historically prevalent, ecologically important process of widespread, frequent, low-to-moderate-severity fire in dry conifer forests.

Arizona, New Mexico↗
USGS2020

Integrating multiple data sources and multi-scale land-cover data to model the distribution of a declining amphibian

Determining the spatial scale at which landscape features influence population persistence is an important task for conservation planning. One challenge is that sampling biases confound factors that influence species occurrence and survey effort. Recent developments in Point Process Models (PPMs) enable researchers to disentangle the sampling process from ecological drivers of species' distributions. Land-cover change is a driver of decline for the western spadefoot (Spea hammondii), which has been extirpated from much of its range in California. Assessing this species' status requires information on the current distribution of suitable habitat within its historical range, but little is known about the effect of the landscape surrounding breeding ponds on spadefoot occurrence. Critically, surveys for western spadefoots often occur along roads, potentially biasing data used to fit species distribution models. We created PPMs integrating historical presence/non-detection and presence-only data for western spadefoots and land-cover data at multiple spatial scales to model the distribution of this species while removing the influence of sampling bias. There was spatial sampling bias in presence-only data; records were more likely to be reported near roads and urban centers and PPMs that removed sampling bias outperformed models that ignored sampling bias. The occurrence of western spadefoots was positively related to the proportion of grassland within a 2000 m buffer. The remaining habitat for western spadefoots is largely found in the foothills surrounding California's Central Valley. Our study illustrates how PPMs can improve projections of habitat suitability and our understanding of the drivers of species' distributions.

California↗
USGS2018

A 3,000‐year lag between the geological and ecological shutdown of Florida's coral reefs

The global‐scale degradation of coral reefs has reached a critical threshold wherein further declines threaten both ecological functionality and the persistence of reef structure. Geological records can provide valuable insights into the long‐term controls on reef development that may be key to solving the modern coral‐reef crisis. Our analyses of new and existing coral‐reef cores from throughout the Florida Keys reef tract (FKRT) revealed significant spatial and temporal variability in reef development during the Holocene. Whereas maximum Holocene reef thickness in the Dry Tortugas was comparable to elsewhere in the western Atlantic, most of Florida's reefs had relatively thin accumulations of Holocene reef framework. During periods of active reef development, average reef accretion rates were similar throughout the FKRT at ~3 m/ky. The spatial variability in reef thickness was instead driven by differences in the duration of reef development. Reef accretion declined significantly from ~6,000 years ago to present, and by ~3,000 years ago, the majority of the FKRT was geologically senescent. Although sea level influenced the development of Florida's reefs, it was not the ultimate driver of reef demise. Instead, we demonstrate that the timing of reef senescence was modulated by subregional hydrographic variability, and hypothesize that climatic cooling was the ultimate cause of reef shutdown. The senescence of the FKRT left the ecosystem balanced at a delicate tipping point at which a veneer of living coral was the only barrier to reef erosion. Modern climate change and other anthropogenic disturbances have now pushed many reefs past that critical threshold and into a novel ecosystem state, in which reef structures built over millennia could soon be lost. The dominant role of climate in the development of the FKRT over timescales of decades to millennia highlights the potential vulnerability of both geological and ecological reef processes to anthropogenic climate change.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2007

Larval Pacific herring, Clupea pallasii (Valenciennes), are highly susceptible to viral haemorrhagic septicaemia and survivors are partially protected after their metamorphosis to juveniles

Pacific herring were susceptible to waterborne challenge with viral haemorrhagic septicaemia virus (VHSV) throughout their early life history stages, with significantly greater cumulative mortalities occurring among VHSV-exposed groups of 9-, 44-, 54- and 76-day-old larvae than among respective control groups. Similarly, among 89-day-1-year-old and 1+year old post-metamorphosed juveniles, cumulative mortality was significantly greater in VHSV-challenged groups than in respective control groups. Larval exposure to VHSV conferred partial protection to the survivors after their metamorphosis to juveniles as shown by significantly less cumulative mortalities among juvenile groups that survived a VHS epidemic as larvae than among groups that were previously nai??ve to VHSV. Magnitude of the protection, measured as relative per cent survival, was a direct function of larval age at first exposure and was probably a reflection of gradual developmental onset of immunocompetence. These results indicate the potential for easily overlooked VHS epizootics among wild larvae in regions where the virus is endemic and emphasize the importance of early life history stages of marine fish in influencing the ecological disease processes. ?? 2007 The Authors.

Journal of Fish Diseases↗
USGS2014

Occupancy of yellow-billed and Pacific loons: evidence for interspecific competition and habitat mediated co-occurrence

Interspecific competition is an important process structuring ecological communities, however, it is difficult to observe in nature. We used an occupancy modelling approach to evaluate evidence of competition between yellow-billed ( Gavia adamsii ) and Pacific ( G. pacifica ) loons for nesting lakes on the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska. With multiple years of data and survey platforms, we estimated dynamic occupancy states (e.g. rates of colonization or extinction from individual lakes) and controlled for detection differences among aircraft platforms and ground survey crews. Results indicated that yellow-billed loons were strong competitors and negatively influenced the occupancy of Pacific loons by excluding them from potential breeding lakes. Pacific loon occupancy was conditional on the presence of yellow-billed loons, with Pacific loons having almost a tenfold decrease in occupancy probability when yellow-billed loons were present and a threefold decrease in colonization probability when yellow-billed loons were present in the current or previous year. Yellow-billed and Pacific loons co-occurred less than expected by chance except on very large lakes or lakes with convoluted shorelines; variables which may decrease the cost of maintaining a territory in the presence of the other species. These results imply the existence of interspecific competition between yellow-billed and Pacific loons for nesting lakes; however, habitat characteristics which facilitate visual and spatial separation of territories can reduce competitive interactions and promote species co-occurrence.

Alaska↗
USGS2016

Elevational speciation in action? Restricted gene flow associated with adaptive divergence across an altitudinal gradient

Evolutionary theory predicts that divergent selection pressures across elevational gradients could cause adaptive divergence and reproductive isolation in the process of ecological speciation. Although there is substantial evidence for adaptive divergence across elevation, there is less evidence that this restricts gene flow. Previous work in the boreal chorus frog (Pseudacris maculata) has demonstrated adaptive divergence in morphological, life history and physiological traits across an elevational gradient from approximately 1500–3000 m in the Colorado Front Range, USA. We tested whether this adaptive divergence is associated with restricted gene flow across elevation – as would be expected if incipient speciation were occurring – and, if so, whether behavioural isolation contributes to reproductive isolation. Our analysis of 12 microsatellite loci in 797 frogs from 53 populations revealed restricted gene flow across elevation, even after controlling for geographic distance and topography. Calls also varied significantly across elevation in dominant frequency, pulse number and pulse duration, which was partly, but not entirely, due to variation in body size and temperature across elevation. However, call variation did not result in strong behavioural isolation: in phonotaxis experiments, low-elevation females tended to prefer an average low-elevation call over a high-elevation call, and vice versa for high-elevation females, but this trend was not statistically significant. In summary, our results show that adaptive divergence across elevation restricts gene flow in P. maculata, but the mechanisms for this potential incipient speciation remain open.

Colorado↗
USGS2013

Fine-scale hydrologic modeling for regional landscape applications: the California Basin Characterization Model development and performance

Introduction Resource managers need spatially explicit models of hydrologic response to changes in key climatic drivers across variable landscape conditions. We demonstrate the utility of a Basin Characterization Model for California (CA-BCM) to integrate high-resolution data on physical watershed characteristics with historical or projected climate data to predict watershed-specific hydrologic responses. Methods The CA-BCM applies a monthly regional water-balance model to simulate hydrologic responses to climate at the spatial resolution of a 270-m grid. The model has been calibrated using a total of 159 relatively unimpaired watersheds for the California region. Results As a result of calibration, predicted basin discharge closely matches measured data for validation watersheds. The CA-BCM recharge and runoff estimates, combined with estimates of snowpack and timing of snowmelt, provide a basis for assessing variations in water availability. Another important output variable, climatic water deficit , integrates the combined effects of temperature and rainfall on site-specific soil moisture, a factor that plants may respond to more directly than air temperature and precipitation alone. Model outputs are calculated for each grid cell, allowing results to be summarized for a variety of planning units including hillslopes, watersheds, ecoregions, or political boundaries. Conclusions The ability to confidently calculate hydrologic outputs at fine spatial scales provides a new suite of hydrologic predictor variables that can be used for a variety of purposes, such as projections of changes in water availability, environmental demand, or distribution of plants and habitats. Here we present the framework of the CA-BCM model for the California hydrologic region, a test of model performance on 159 watersheds, summary results for the region for the 1981–2010 time period, and changes since the 1951–1980 time period.

California↗
USGS2017

Potential influence of wildfire in modulating climate-induced forest redistribution in a central Rocky Mountain landscape

Introduction Climate change is expected to impose significant tension on the geographic distribution of tree species. Yet, tree species range shifts may be delayed by their long life spans, capacity to withstand long periods of physiological stress, and dispersal limitations. Wildfire could theoretically break this biological inertia by killing forest canopies and facilitating species redistribution under changing climate. We investigated the capacity of wildfire to modulate climate-induced tree redistribution across a montane landscape in the central Rocky Mountains under three climate scenarios (contemporary and two warmer future climates) and three wildfire scenarios (representing historical, suppressed, and future fire regimes). Methods Distributions of four common tree species were projected over 90 years by pairing a climate niche model with a forest landscape simulation model that simulates species dispersal, establishment, and mortality under alternative disturbance regimes and climate scenarios. Results Three species (Douglas-fir, lodgepole pine, subalpine fir) declined in abundance over time, due to climate-driven contraction in area suitable for establishment, while one species (ponderosa pine) was unable to exploit climate-driven expansion of area suitable for establishment. Increased fire frequency accelerated declines in area occupied by Douglas-fir, lodgepole pine, and subalpine fir, and it maintained local abundance but not range expansion of ponderosa pine. Conclusions Wildfire may play a larger role in eliminating these conifer species along trailing edges of their distributions than facilitating establishment along leading edges, in part due to dispersal limitations and interspecific competition, and future populations may increasingly depend on persistence in locations unfavorable for their establishment.

Idaho↗
USGS2018

Characterizing drought in California: new drought indices and scenario-testing in support of resource management

Introduction California’s recent drought (2012–2016) has implications throughout the state for natural resource management and adaptation planning and has generated many discussions about drought characterization and recovery. This study characterizes drought conditions with two indices describing deficits in natural water supply and increases in landscape stress developed on the basis of water balance modeling, at a fine spatial scale to assess the variation in conditions across the entire state, and provides an in-depth evaluation for the Russian River basin in northern California to address local resource management by developing extreme drought scenarios for consideration in planning and adaptation. Methods We employed the USGS Basin Characterization Model to characterize drought on the basis of water supply (a measure of recharge plus runoff) and landscape stress (climatic water deficit). These were applied to the state and to the Russian River basin where antecedent soil moisture conditions were evaluated and extreme drought scenarios were developed and run through a water management and reservoir operations model to further explore impacts on water management. Results Drought indices indicated that as of the end of water year 2016 when reservoirs were full, additional water supply and landscape replenishment of up to three average years of precipitation in some locations was needed to return to normal conditions. Antecedent soil conditions in the Russian River were determined to contribute to very different water supply results for different years and were necessary to understand to anticipate proper watershed response to climate. Extreme drought scenarios manifested very different kinds of drought and recovery and characterization helps to guide the management response to drought. Conclusions These scenarios and indices illustrate how droughts differ with regard to water supply and landscape stress and how long warm droughts recover much more slowly than short very dry droughts due to the depletion of water in the soil and unsaturated zone that require filling before runoff can occur. Recognition of ongoing conditions and likelihood of recovery provides tools and information for a range of resource managers to cope with drought conditions.

California↗