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At least 343 records · Page 19Linked to original sources

USGS2026

Changing drivers of regional large magnitude avalanche frequency throughout Colorado, USA

Large magnitude snow avalanches (destructive size ≥ D3) impact settlements, transportation corridors, and public safety worldwide. In Colorado, United States, avalanches have killed more people than any other natural hazard since 1950. In March 2019, a large magnitude avalanche cycle occurred throughout the entire mountainous portion of Colorado resulting in more than 1000 reported avalanches during a two-week period. Nearly 200 of these avalanches were size D4 or larger with at least three D5 avalanches. However, placing this 2019 large magnitude avalanche cycle in historic context requires data prior to the instrumental record. Here, we paired tree disturbance data from dendrochronology (1698 to 2020) with meteorological data from the modeled and instrumental record (1901 to 2020) to understand the frequency and climate drivers of large magnitude snow avalanche cycles. The extensive number of downed trees from the 2019 avalanche cycle allowed us to collect 1,188 cross-sections and cores from 1023 individual trees within 24 avalanche paths across the state. From these samples we identified 4135 avalanche-related growth disturbances. We employed a strategic nested sampling design to spatially aggregate avalanche frequency from individual avalanche paths, to counties, to three major sub-regions (i.e., north, central, and south), and across the entire region (i.e., state of Colorado). Over a period spanning more than three centuries (1698 to 2020), we identified 76 avalanche years within 24 individual avalanche paths. Large magnitude avalanche event frequency varied across paths and sub-regions with several notable region-wide avalanche cycles. Both tree-ring and historical written records highlighted 1899 as a year with widespread and large magnitude avalanche activity similar to the March 2019 avalanche cycle. Since the early-20th century (1900 to 2020) regional avalanche probability declined significantly in parallel with decreasing snowpack throughout Colorado. Similarly, dominant avalanche regimes shifted from large magnitude regional cycles driven by above average snowfall years over most of the record, to regional avalanche cycles occurring more commonly in average to low snow years since 1988. In recent decades, a lack of December precipitation and above average March precipitation characterized years with regional large magnitude avalanche activity. Even with declining snow water equivalent, truly extreme regional large magnitude avalanche cycles remain possible – as demonstrated by the 2019 cycle. This underscores that rare but high-impact events are not eliminated by long-term trends. Understanding the changing snow and weather drivers and subsequent behavior of large magnitude avalanche cycles across multiple spatial scales may improve avalanche forecasting and the products and mitigations strategies developed by structural engineers to mitigate avalanche danger. This can decrease the avalanche risk to the public and improve infrastructure design in avalanche terrain.

Colorado↗

USGS2015

Local climate and cultivation, but not ploidy, predict functional trait variation in Bouteloua gracilis (Poaceae)

Efforts to improve the diversity of seed 18 resources for important restoration species has become a high priority for land managers in many parts of the world. Relationships between functional trait values and the environment from which seed sources are collected can provide important insights into patterns of local adaptation and guidelines for seed transfer. However, little is known about which functional traits exhibit genetic differentiation across populations of restoration species and thus may contribute to local adaptation. Here, we report the results of a common garden experiment aimed at assessing genetic (including ploidy level) and environmental regulation of several functional traits among populations of Bouteloua gracilis, a dominant C4 grass and the most highly utilized restoration species across much of the Colorado Plateau. We found that leaf size and specific leaf area (SLA) varied significantly among populations, and were strongly correlated with the source population environment from which seeds were collected. However, variation in ploidy level had no significant effect on functional traits. Leaves of plants grown from commercial seed releases were significantly larger and had lower SLA than those from natural populations, a result that is concordant with the overall relation between climate and these two functional traits. We suggest that the patterns of functional trait variation shown here may extend to other grass species in the western USA, and may serve as useful proxies for more extensive genecology research. Furthermore, we argue that care should be taken to develop commercial seed lines with functional trait values that match those of natural populations occupying climates similar to target restoration sites.

Plant Ecology↗

USGS2007

Molecular ecology of the big brown bat (Eptesicus fuscus): Genetic and natural history variation in a hybrid zone

Several geographically distinct mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) lineages of the big brown bat (Eptesicus fuscus) have been documented in North America. Individuals from 2 of these lineages, an eastern and a western form, co-occur within maternity colonies in Colorado. The discovery of 2 divergent mtDNA lineages in sympatry prompted a set of questions regarding possible biological differences between haplotypes. We captured big brown bats at maternity roosts in Colorado and recorded data on body size, pelage color, litter size, roosting and overwintering behaviors, and local distributions. Wing biopsies were collected for genetic analysis. The ND2 region of the mtDNA molecule was used to determine lineage of the bats. In addition, nuclear DNA (nDNA) intron 1 of the ??-globin gene was used to determine if mtDNA lineages are hybridizing. Eastern and western mtDNA lineages differed by 10.3% sequence divergence and examination of genetic data suggests recent population expansion for both lineages. Differences in distribution occur along the Colorado Front Range, with an increasing proportion of western haplotypes farther south. Results from nDNA analyses demonstrated hybridization between the 2 lineages. Additionally, no outstanding distinctiveness was found between the mtDNA lineages in natural history characters examined. We speculate that historical climate changes separated this species into isolated eastern and western populations, and that secondary contact with subsequent interbreeding was facilitated by European settlement. ?? 2007 American Society of Mammalogists.

Journal of Mammalogy↗

USGS2021

Arizona and Landsat

Arizona is a land of massive grandeur, deep gorges, lofty mountains, immense plains, and elevated mesas—and, without question, its crown jewel is the Grand Canyon. The spectacular canyon, one of the seven natural wonders of the world, was created when the Colorado River carved a channel through northern Arizona, revealing nearly two billion years of the Earth's history. Yet, for all its ancient beauty, Arizona and its landscapes are experiencing a transformation. Arizonans face more extreme temperatures and drought because of climate change. Amid a drought in the western United States, Lake Mead, one of Arizona's main water resources, dropped to a record low level in June 2021. Climate change is making extreme weather events such as dust storms and heat waves more common, posing higher risks to human health, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Arizona↗

USGS2009

Groundwater availability of the Central Valley Aquifer, California

California's Central Valley covers about 20,000 square miles and is one of the most productive agricultural regions in the world. More than 250 different crops are grown in the Central Valley with an estimated value of $17 billion per year. This irrigated agriculture relies heavily on surface-water diversions and groundwater pumpage. Approximately one-sixth of the Nation's irrigated land is in the Central Valley, and about one-fifth of the Nation's groundwater demand is supplied from its aquifers. The Central Valley also is rapidly becoming an important area for California's expanding urban population. Since 1980, the population of the Central Valley has nearly doubled from 2 million to 3.8 million people. The Census Bureau projects that the Central Valley's population will increase to 6 million people by 2020. This surge in population has increased the competition for water resources within the Central Valley and statewide, which likely will be exacerbated by anticipated reductions in deliveries of Colorado River water to southern California. In response to this competition for water, a number of water-related issues have gained prominence: conservation of agricultural land, conjunctive use, artificial recharge, hydrologic implications of land-use change, and effects of climate variability. To provide information to stakeholders addressing these issues, the USGS Groundwater Resources Program made a detailed assessment of groundwater availability of the Central Valley aquifer system, that includes: (1) the present status of groundwater resources; (2) how these resources have changed over time; and (3) tools to assess system responses to stresses from future human uses and climate variability and change. This effort builds on previous investigations, such as the USGS Central Valley Regional Aquifer System and Analysis (CV-RASA) project and several other groundwater studies in the Valley completed by Federal, State and local agencies at differing scales. The principal product of this new assessment is a tool referred to as the Central Valley Hydrologic Model (CVHM) that accounts for integrated, variable water supply and demand, and simulates surface-water and groundwater-flow across the entire Central Valley system. The development of the CVHM comprised four major elements: (1) a comprehensive Geographic Information System (GIS) to compile, analyze and visualize data; (2) a texture model to characterize the aquifer system;(3) estimates of water-budget components by numerically modeling the hydrologic system with the Farm Process (FMP); and (4) simulations to assess and quantify hydrologic conditions.

Professional Paper↗

USGS2017

Albedo feedbacks to future climate via climate change impacts on dryland biocrusts

Drylands represent the planet’s largest terrestrial biome and evidence suggests these landscapes have large potential for creating feedbacks to future climate. Recent studies also indicate that dryland ecosystems are responding markedly to climate change. Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) ‒ soil surface communities of lichens, mosses, and/or cyanobacteria ‒ comprise up to 70% of dryland cover and help govern fundamental ecosystem functions, including soil stabilization and carbon uptake. Drylands are expected to experience significant changes in temperature and precipitation regimes, and such alterations may impact biocrust communities by promoting rapid mortality of foundational species. In turn, biocrust community shifts affect land surface cover and roughness—changes that can dramatically alter albedo. We tested this hypothesis in a full-factorial warming (+4 °C above ambient) and altered precipitation (increased frequency of 1.2 mm monsoon-type watering events) experiment on the Colorado Plateau, USA. We quantified changes in shortwave albedo via multi-angle, solar-reflectance measurements. Warming and watering treatments each led to large increases in albedo (>30%). This increase was driven by biophysical factors related to treatment effects on cyanobacteria cover and soil surface roughness following treatment-induced moss and lichen mortality. A rise in dryland surface albedo may represent a previously unidentified feedback to future climate.

Utah↗

USGS2022

Decline in biological soil crust N-fixing lichens linked to increasing summertime temperatures

Across many global drylands, biocrusts form a protective barrier on the soil surface and fill many critical roles in these harsh yet fragile environments. Previous short-term research suggests that climate change and invasive plant introduction can damage and alter biocrust communities, yet few long-term observations exist. Using a globally unique long-term record of continuous biocrust surveys from a rare never-grazed, protected grassland on the US Colorado Plateau, we found lichen species diversity and cover to be negatively correlated with increasing summer air temperatures, while moss species showed more sensitivity to variation in precipitation and invasive grass cover. These results suggest that dryland systems may be at a critical tipping point where ongoing warming could result in biological soil crust degradation.

Proceedings of the National Academies of Science (↗

USGS1979

Streamflow statistical summaries for Colorado streams through September 30, 1975; Volume 3, Colorado River basin from Gunnison River to San Juan River

This report contains statistical summaries of daily streamflow data as of September 30, 1975, for 234 stations west of the Continental Divide in Colorado and adjacent States for use by agencies and individuals engaged in water studies. To be included in this report, a station had to have a minimum of 3 complete water years (October 1 to September 30) of record and 3 complete climatic years (April I to March 31) of record having virtually constant effects of regulation and diversion, and to have had streamflow records previously reviewed and published by the U.S. Geological Survey. Duration tables show the distribution of daily discharges for each water year ending September 30. High-flow sequence tables show the highest mean discharge for 1, 3, 7, 15, 30, 60, 90, 120, and 183 consecutive days of each water year. Low-flow sequence tables show the lowest mean discharge for 1, 3, 7, 14, 30, 60, 90, 120, and 183 consecutive days of each climatic year. For monthly flows the following statistics have been computed for each station having 5 or more complete water years of record: (1) mean, (2) variance, (3) standard deviation, (4) skewness, (5) coefficient of variation, and (6) percentage of average flow. The first five items were also computed for the water year annual flows along with the first order serial correlation coefficient. For stations which have had virtually instantaneous significant changes in the effects of regulation and diversion, a maximum of two sets of summaries are shown. Referenced reports describe procedures for processing and interpreting the streamflow statistics.

Open-File Report↗

USGS1964

Ground-water resources of the South Platte River Basin in western Adams and southwestern Weld Counties, Colorado

The area described in this report consists of about 970 square miles in western Adams and southwestern Weld Counties in northeastern Colorado. It includes that part of the South Platte River valley between Denver and Kuner, Colo., all of Beebe Draw, and the lower part of the valley of Box Elder Creek. The stream-valley lowlands are separated by rolling uplands. The climate is semiarid, the normal annual precipitation being about 13 inches; thus, irrigation is essential for stable agricultural development. The area contains about 220,000 acres of irrigated land in the stream valleys. Most of the remaining 400,000 acres of land is used for dry farming or grazing because it lacks irrigation water. Most of the lowlands were brought under irrigation with surface water during the early 1900's, and now nearly all the surface water in the area is appropriated for irrigation within and downstream from the area. Because the natural flow of the streams is sometimes less than the demand for water, ground water is used to supplement the surface-water supply. Wells, drilled chiefly since 1930, supply the supplemental water and in some places are the sole supply for irrigation use. Rocks exposed in the area are of sedimentary origin and range in age from Lato Cretaceous to Recent. Those that are consolidated, called 'bedrock' in this report, consist of the Fox Hills sandstone and the Laramie and Arapahoe formations, all of Late Cretaceous age, and the Denver formation and Dawson arkose of Late Cretaceous and Tertiary age. The surface of the bedrock was shaped by ancestral streams, the valleys of which are reflected by the present surface topography. Dune sand, slope wash, and thin upland deposits of Quaternary age mantle the bedrock in the divide areas, and stream deposits ranging in thickness from 0 to about 125 feet partly fill the ancestral valleys. The valley-fill deposits consist of beds and lenses of clay, silt, sand, gravel, cobbles, and boulders. Abundant supplies of ground water for irrigation, municipal, and industrial use are obtained in the principal stream valleys from wells tapping valley-fill deposits beneath the flood plain and bordering terraces. Many domestic and stock wells obtain water from the unconsolidated deposits both on the uplands and in the valleys. The ground water in the valley-fill deposits generally is unconfined but in a few places is under slight artesian pressure. The bedrock formations yield small to moderate supplies of water to municipal, industrial, domestic, and stock wells, but the yields are not sufficient for irrigation. Ground water in the South Platte River valley moves downstream and toward the river and is discharged into the river. The direction of ground-water movement in Beebe Draw and Box Elder Creek valley is nearly parallel to the streams. Beebe Seep, the stream in Beebe Draw, gains water from the groundwater reservoir in some reaches and loses water in others, but Box Elder Creek loses water to the ground-water reservoir throughout its course especially during floods. The shape and slope of the water table are affected chiefly by the permeability of the valley-fill deposits, the location and altitude of the areas of recharge and discharge, and the configuration of the underlying bedrock floor. The depth to water in the South Platte River valley ranges from less than 1 foot beneath the flood plain to as much as 80 feet beneath the terraces. In Beebe Draw the depth to water ranges from less than 1 foot to about 60 feet and in Box Elder Creek valley from about 5 feet to about 40 feet. During the period of record the annual fluctuation of water levels in wells in the area has ranged from 2 to 13 feet. Precipitation within the area and infiltrating water from irrigated tracts, reservoirs, canals, and streams are the principal sources of recharge to the ground-water reservoir; some recharge results from underflow from outside the area. Ground water is discharged by evapotranspiratio

Water Supply Paper↗

USGS1994

Stratigraphic evidence of desertification in the west-central Great Plains within the past 1000 yr

Stratigraphic and geomorphic relations, archeological data, and eight radiocarbon ages at five widely scattered localities in northeastern Colorado indicate that eolian sand was mobilized over broad areas within the past 1000 yr. The mobilization began after 1 ka, was episodic, and ended at some as yet undetermined time prior to the latter part of the nineteenth century. Given that climate-model simulations suggest only slight variation in average surface temperature and annual precipitation in this region during the past 1000 yr, this part of the Great Plains evidently is near the threshold of widespread eolian sand transport under the present climate.

Geology↗

USGS2013

Monitoring the status of forests and rangelands in the Western United States using ecosystem performance anomalies

The effects of land management and disturbance on ecosystem performance (i.e. biomass production) are often confounded by those of weather and site potential. The current study overcomes this issue by calculating the difference between actual and expected ecosystem performance (EEP) to generate ecosystem performance anomalies (EPA). This study aims to delineate and quantify average EPA from 2000–2009 within the Greater Platte and Upper Colorado River Basins, USA. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) images averaged over the growing season (GSN) served as a proxy of actual ecosystem performance. Yearly EEP was determined with rule-based piecewise regression tree models of abiotic data (climate, soils, elevation, etc.), independently created for each land cover. EPA were calculated as the residuals of the EEP to GSN relationship, and characterized as normal performing, underperforming, and overperforming at the 90% confidence level. Validation revealed that EPA values were related to biomass production (R 2 = 0.56, P = 0.02) and likely to the proportion of biomass removed by livestock in the Nebraska Sandhills. Overall, 60.6% of the study area was (normal) performing near its EEP, 3.0% was severely underperforming, 5.0% was highly overperforming, and the remainder was slightly underperforming or overperforming. Generally, disturbances such as fires, floods, and insect damage, in addition to high grazing intensity, result in a negative EPA. Conversely, mature stands and appropriate management often result in positive EPA values. This method provides information critical to land managers to evaluate the appropriateness of previous management practices and restoration efforts and quantify disturbance impacts. Results are at a scale sufficient for many of the large management units of the region and for locating areas needing further investigation. Applications of EPA data to monitoring invasive species, grazing impacts, and vulnerability to plant community shifts have been suggested by land management professionals.

Arizona;Colorado;Kansas;Nebraska;New Mexico;South ↗

USGS2014

Retrospective analysis of associations between water quality and toxic blooms of golden alga ( Prymnesium parvum ) in Texas reservoirs: Implications for understanding dispersal mechanisms and impacts of climate change

Toxic blooms of golden alga (GA, Prymnesium parvum ) in Texas typically occur in winter or early spring. In North America, they were first reported in Texas in the 1980s, and a marked range expansion occurred in 2001. Although there is concern about the influence of climate change on the future distribution of GA, factors responsible for past dispersals remain uncertain. To better understand the factors that influence toxic bloom dispersal in reservoirs, this study characterized reservoir water quality associated with toxic GA blooms since 2001, and examined trends in water quality during a 20-year period bracketing the 2001 expansion. Archived data were analyzed for six impacted and six nonimpacted reservoirs from two major Texas basins: Brazos River and Colorado River. Data were simplified for analysis by pooling spatially (across sampling stations) and temporally (winter, December-February) within reservoirs and generating depth-corrected (1 m) monthly values. Classification tree analysis [period of record (POR), 2001-2010] using salinity-associated variables (specific conductance, chloride, sulfate), dissolved oxygen (DO), pH, temperature, total hardness, potassium, nitrate+nitrite, and total phosphorus indicated that salinity best predicts the toxic bloom occurrence. Minimum estimated salinities for toxic bloom formation were 0.59 and 1.02 psu in Brazos and Colorado River reservoirs, respectively. Principal component analysis (POR, 2001-2010) indicated that GA habitat is best defined by higher salinity relative to nonimpacted reservoirs, with winter DO and pH also being slightly higher and winter temperature slightly lower in impacted reservoirs. Trend analysis, however, did not reveal monotonic changes in winter water quality of GA-impacted reservoirs during the 20-year period (1991-2010) bracketing the 2001 dispersal. Therefore, whereas minimum levels of salinity are required for GA establishment and toxic blooms in Texas reservoirs, the lack of trends in water quality suggests that conditions favorable for toxic blooms pre-date the 2001 expansion. These observations are consistent with a climate change-independent scenario of past GA dispersals in Texas reservoirs driven by novel introductions into pre-existing favorable habitat. Reports of latent GA populations in certain nonimpacted reservoirs, however, provide a plausible scenario of future dispersals characterized by prolonged periods between colonization and toxic bloom development and driven by changes in water quality, natural, or anthropogenic.

Harmful Algae↗

USGS2011

Regional and climatic controls on seasonal dust deposition in the southwestern U.S.

Vertical dust deposition rates (dust flux) are a complex response to the interaction of seasonal precipitation, wind, changes in plant cover and land use, dust source type, and local vs. distant dust emission in the southwestern U.S. Seasonal dust flux in the Mojave–southern Great Basin (MSGB) deserts, measured from 1999 to 2008, is similar in summer–fall and winter–spring, and antecedent precipitation tends to suppress dust flux in winter–spring. In contrast, dust flux in the eastern Colorado Plateau (ECP) region is much larger in summer–fall than in winter–spring, and twice as large as in the MSGB. ECP dust is related to wind speed, and in the winter–spring to antecedent moisture. Higher summer dust flux in the ECP is likely due to gustier winds and runoff during monsoonal storms when temperature is also higher. Source types in the MSGB and land use in the ECP have important effects on seasonal dust flux. In the MSGB, wet playas produce salt-rich dust during wetter seasons, whereas antecedent and current moisture suppress dust emission from alluvial and dry-playa sources during winter–spring. In the ECP under drought conditions, dust flux at a grazed-and-plowed site increased greatly, and also increased at three annualized, previously grazed sites. Dust fluxes remained relatively consistent at ungrazed and currently grazed sites that have maintained perennial vegetation cover. Under predicted scenarios of future climate change, these results suggest that an increase in summer storms may increase dust flux in both areas, but resultant effects will depend on source type, land use, and vegetation cover.

Arizona, California, Nevada, Utah↗

USGS2016

Concentrations of mineral aerosol from desert to plains across the central Rocky Mountains, western United States

Mineral dusts can have profound effects on climate, clouds, ecosystem processes, and human health. Because regional dust emission and deposition in western North America are not well understood, measurements of total suspended particulate (TSP) from 2011 to 2013 were made along a 500-km transect of five remote sites in Utah and Colorado, USA. The TSP concentrations in μg m −3 adjusted to a 24-h period were relatively high at the two westernmost, dryland sites at Canyonlands National Park (mean = 135) and at Mesa Verde National Park (mean = 99), as well as at the easternmost site on the Great Plains (mean = 143). The TSP concentrations at the two intervening montane sites were less, with more loading on the western slope of the Rocky Mountains (Telluride, mean = 68) closest to the desert sites compared with the site on the eastern slope (Niwot Ridge, mean = 58). Dust concentrations were commonly highest during late winter-late spring, when Pacific frontal storms are the dominant causes of regional wind. Low concentrations (<7 wt%) of organic matter indicated that rock-derived mineral particles composed most TSP. Most TSP mass was carried by particle sizes larger than 10 μm (PM >10 ), as revealed by relatively low average daily concentrations of fine (<5 μg m −3 ; PM 2.5 ) and coarse (<10 μg m −3 ; PM 2.5–10 ) fractions monitored at or near four sites. Standard air-quality measurements for PM 2.5 and PM 10 apparently do not capture the large majority of mineral-particulate pollution in the remote western interior U.S.

Aeolian Research↗

USGS2010

Changes in the timing of snowmelt and streamflow in Colorado: A response to recent warming

Trends in the timing of snowmelt and associated runoff in Colorado were evaluated for the 1978-2007 water years using the regional Kendall test (RKT) on daily snow-water equivalent (SWE) data from snowpack telemetry (SNOTEL) sites and daily streamflow data from headwater streams. The RKT is a robust, nonparametric test that provides an increased power of trend detection by grouping data from multiple sites within a given geographic region. The RKT analyses indicated strong, pervasive trends in snowmelt and streamflow timing, which have shifted toward earlier in the year by a median of 2-3 weeks over the 29-yr study period. In contrast, relatively few statistically significant trends were detected using simple linear regression. RKT analyses also indicated that November-May air temperatures increased by a median of 0.9 degrees C decade -1 , while 1 April SWE and maximum SWE declined by a median of 4.1 and 3.6 cm decade -1 , respectively. Multiple linear regression models were created, using monthly air temperatures, snowfall, latitude, and elevation as explanatory variables to identify major controlling factors on snowmelt timing. The models accounted for 45% of the variance in snowmelt onset, and 78% of the variance in the snowmelt center of mass (when half the snowpack had melted). Variations in springtime air temperature and SWE explained most of the interannual variability in snowmelt timing. Regression coefficients for air temperature were negative, indicating that warm temperatures promote early melt. Regression coefficients for SWE, latitude, and elevation were positive, indicating that abundant snowfall tends to delay snowmelt, and snowmelt tends to occur later at northern latitudes and high elevations. Results from this study indicate that even the mountains of Colorado, with their high elevations and cold snowpacks, are experiencing substantial shifts in the timing of snowmelt and snowmelt runoff toward earlier in the year.

Colorado↗

USGS2015

Methods for estimating the magnitude and frequency of peak streamflows at ungaged sites in and near the Oklahoma Panhandle

This report presents the results of a cooperative study by the U.S. Geological Survey and the Oklahoma Department of Transportation to estimate the magnitude and frequency of peak streamflows from regional regression equations for ungaged stream sites in and near the Oklahoma Panhandle. These methods relate basin characteristics (physiographic and climatic attributes) to selected peak streamflow frequency statistics with the 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities. These relations were developed based on data from 32 selected streamflow-gaging stations in the Oklahoma Panhandle and in neighboring parts of Colorado, Kansas, New Mexico, and Texas. The basin characteristics for the selected streamflow-gaging stations were determined by using a geographic information system and the Oklahoma StreamStats application. Peak-streamflow frequency statistics were computed from annual peak-streamflow records from the irrigated period of record from water year 1978 through water year 2014. Generalized-least-squares multiple-linear regression analysis was used to formulate regression relations between peak-streamflow frequency statistics and basin characteristics. Contributing drainage area was the only basin characteristic determined to be statistically significant for all percentage of annual exceedance probabilities and was the only basin characteristic used in regional regression equations for estimating peak-streamflow frequency statistics on unregulated streams in and near the Oklahoma Panhandle. The regression model pseudo-coefficient of determination, converted to percent, for the Oklahoma Panhandle regional regression equations ranged from about 38 to 63 percent. The standard errors of prediction and the standard model errors for the Oklahoma Panhandle regional regression equations ranged from about 84 to 148 percent and from about 76 to 138 percent, respectively. These errors were comparable to those reported for regional peak-streamflow frequency regression equations for the High Plains areas of Texas and Colorado. The root mean square errors for the Oklahoma Panhandle regional regression equations (ranging from 3,170 to 92,000 cubic feet per second) were less than the root mean square errors for the Oklahoma statewide regression equations (ranging from 18,900 to 412,000 cubic feet per second); therefore, the Oklahoma Panhandle regional regression equations produce more accurate peak-streamflow statistic estimates for the irrigated period of record in the Oklahoma Panhandle than do the Oklahoma statewide regression equations. The regression equations developed in this report are applicable to streams that are not substantially affected by regulation, impoundment, or surface-water withdrawals. These regression equations are intended for use for stream sites with contributing drainage areas less than or equal to about 2,060 square miles, the maximum value for the independent variable used in the regression analysis.

Colorado, Kansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas↗

USGS2020

The role of warm, dry summers and variation in snowpack on phytoplankton dynamics in high-elevation lakes

Abstract Climate change is altering biogeochemical, metabolic, and ecological functions in lakes across the globe. Historically, mountain lakes in temperate regions have been unproductive due to brief ice-free seasons, a snowmelt-driven hydrograph, cold temperatures, and steep topography with low vegetation and soil cover. We tested the relative importance of winter and summer weather, watershed characteristics, and water chemistry as drivers of phytoplankton dynamics. Using boosted regression tree models for 28 mountain lakes in Colorado we examined regional, intra-seasonal, and inter-annual drivers of variability in chlorophyll a as a proxy for lake phytoplankton. Phytoplankton biomass was inversely related to the maximum snow water equivalent (SWE) of the previous winter, as others have found. However, even in years with average SWE, summer precipitation extremes and warming enhanced phytoplankton biomass. Peak seasonal phytoplankton biomass coincided with the warmest water temperatures and lowest nitrogen-to-phosphorus ratios. While links between snowpack, lake temperature, nutrients, and organic matter dynamics are increasingly recognized as critical drivers of change in high elevation lakes, our results highlight the additional influence of summer conditions on lake productivity in response to ongoing changes in climate. Continued changes in the timing, type, and magnitude of precipitation in combination with other global change drivers (e.g., nutrient deposition) will affect production in mountain lakes, potentially shifting these historically oligotrophic lakes toward new ecosystem states. Ultimately, a deeper understanding of these drivers and pattern at multiple scales will allow us to better anticipate ecological consequences of global change.

Colorado↗

USGS2012

Comparative phylogeography reveals deep lineages and regional evolutionary hotspots in the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts

Aim: We explored lineage diversification within desert-dwelling fauna. Our goals were (1) to determine whether phylogenetic lineages and population expansions were consistent with younger Pleistocene climate fluctuation hypotheses or much older events predicted by pre-Pleistocene vicariance hypotheses, (2) to assess concordance in spatial patterns of genetic divergence and diversity among species and (3) to identify regional evolutionary hotspots of divergence and diversity and assess their conservation status. Location: Mojave, Colorado, and Sonoran Deserts, USA. Methods: We analysed previously published gene sequence data for twelve species. We used Bayesian gene tree methods to estimate lineages and divergence times. Within each lineage, we tested for population expansion and age of expansion using coalescent approaches. We mapped interpopulation genetic divergence and intra-population genetic diversity in a GIS to identify hotspots of highest genetic divergence and diversity and to assess whether protected lands overlapped with evolutionary hotspots. Results: In seven of the 12 species, lineage divergence substantially predated the Pleistocene. Historical population expansion was found in eight species, but expansion events postdated the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in only four. For all species assessed, six hotspots of high genetic divergence and diversity were concentrated in the Colorado Desert, along the Colorado River and in the Mojave/Sonoran ecotone. At least some proportion of the land within each recovered hotspot was categorized as protected, yet four of the six also overlapped with major areas of human development. Main conclusions: Most of the species studied here diversified into distinct Mojave and Sonoran lineages prior to the LGM – supporting older diversification hypotheses. Several evolutionary hotspots were recovered but are not strategically paired with areas of protected land. Long-term preservation of species-level biodiversity would entail selecting areas for protection in Mojave and Sonoran Deserts to retain divergent genetic diversity and ensure connectedness across environmental gradients.

Colorado Desert;Mojave Desert;Sonoran Desert↗