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USGS2025

Estimating daily public supply water use by drinking water service area in New Jersey

This report, prepared in cooperation with the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection, presents a method for estimating daily public supply water use by drinking water service area systems for New Jersey. The ability to accurately estimate daily public supply water use could help water supply planners in New Jersey better understand and manage the state’s limited water resources and balance the competing needs for freshwater resources. Data sources for this work include daily public supply water-use data from 2016 through 2020 acquired from New Jersey American Water for 15 drinking water service areas and monthly data exported from the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection’s online water transfer data model database (known as NJWaTr). The two datasets were compared by aggregating the daily data to a monthly timescale. Statistical regression analysis was applied to the daily data, along with climate data, to evaluate what factors are influential in estimating daily fluctuations and trends in daily public supply water use. Fifteen regression equations were developed, one for each of the 15 drinking water service area systems for which daily data were acquired. Regression equations for systems that had seasonal patterns performed better than equations for non-seasonal systems. For the test year (2020), the average adjusted coefficient of determination for the linear regression with autoregressive errors model among systems with seasonality was 0.78; the average adjusted coefficient of determination for the linear regression with autoregressive errors model among systems with little or no seasonality was 0.25. The effects of anomalous data in the regression analysis were examined by comparing adjusted coefficient of determination values when the atypical data points were removed versus when they were retained in the analysis. Overall, including the anomalous data did not have a large effect on the results, and thus the data were retained for this study. In addition to developing regression equations, all 589 unique drinking water service area systems in New Jersey were characterized based on socio-economic data and monthly water-use data from NJWaTr. Systems that are located near the New Jersey coast, serve populations larger than 1,970 people, or serve areas that have median property values over $256,250 tended to demonstrate seasonal water-use behaviors. Systems that have mostly urban residential land use tended to show little to no seasonal water-use behaviors. Finally, a method was developed to disaggregate monthly data to a daily timescale and was tested against systems for which daily data were not available. Two regression equation forms were developed to be applied to systems beyond the 15 systems from which the original equations were developed; one equation was developed for use when all drinking water service area systems showed little to no seasonality, and the other equation was developed for use when systems displayed seasonal behavior. To the extent possible, uncertainty and possible sources of error were identified and examined in relation to the regression model equations developed. Additional daily data from these 15 systems (over different years) and daily data from different systems could be used to further evaluate the results of the disaggregation through a comprehensive assessment of error. Further adjustments to the regression equations could be made, ultimately enhancing their accuracy.

New Jersey↗

USGS2012

Simulated effects of dam removal on water temperatures along the Klamath River, Oregon and California, using 2010 Biological Opinion flow requirements

Computer model simulations were run to determine the effects of dam removal on water temperatures along the Klamath River, located in south-central Oregon and northern California, using flow requirements defined in the 2010 Biological Opinion of the National Marine Fisheries Service. A one-dimensional, daily averaged water temperature model (River Basin Model-10) developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Region 10, Seattle, Washington, was used in the analysis. This model had earlier been configured and calibrated for the Klamath River by the U.S. Geological Survey for the U.S. Department of the Interior, Klamath Secretarial Determination to simulate the effects of dam removal on water temperatures for current (2011) and future climate change scenarios. The analysis for this report was performed outside of the scope of the Klamath Secretarial Determination process at the request of the Bureau of Reclamation Technical Services Office, Denver, Colorado.  For this analysis, two dam scenarios were simulated: “dams in” and “dams out.” In the “dams in” scenario, existing dams in the Klamath River were kept in place. In the “dams out” scenario, the river was modeled as a natural stream, without the J.C. Boyle, Copco1, Copco2, and Iron Gate Dams, for the entire simulation period. Output from the two dam scenario simulations included daily water temperatures simulated at 29 locations for a 50-year period along the Klamath River between river mile 253 (downstream of Link River Dam) and the Pacific Ocean. Both simulations used identical flow requirements, formulated in the 2010 Biological Opinion, and identical climate conditions based on the period 1961–2009.  Simulated water temperatures from January through June at almost all locations between J.C. Boyle Reservoir and the Pacific Ocean were higher for the “dams out” scenario than for the “dams in” scenario. The simulated mean monthly water temperature increase was highest [1.7–2.2 degrees Celsius (°C)] in May downstream of Iron Gate Dam. However, from August to December, dam removal generally cooled water temperatures. During these months, water temperatures decreased 1°C or more between Copco Lake and locations 50 miles or more downstream. The greatest mean monthly temperature decrease was 4°C in October just downstream of Iron Gate Dam. Near the ocean, the effects of dam removal were small (less than 0.2°C) for most months. However, the mean November temperature near the ocean was almost 0.5°C cooler with dam removal.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2021

A U.S.-China EcoPartnership study of disturbed wetland vegetation in West Dongting Lake, China

West Dongting Lake in China is important for human livelihoods and habitat of migratory waterfowl and other wildlife. The waterway re-engineering and agriculture intensification have contributed to changes in hydrology, sediment, and vegetation on the floodplain. This paper describes an EcoPartnership program conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, Wetland and Aquatic Research Center, and Beijing Forestry University. It focused on the development of a wetland ecosystem network in West Dongting Lake with technical support from the U.S. partner using a number of related studies to examine wetland vegetation dynamics from upstream to downstream along the tributaries. The results of U.S. studies showed that the regeneration potential of species might be altered by changes in climate and local environment, and seed bank depletion by germination may be a major conservation threat in a future with recurring droughts in swamps of the southeastern United States. In the monsoonal wetlands of West Dongting Lake, the soil seed bank could be used as a seed source for revegetation after hydrologic restoration with the introduction of certain foundational species and the removal of poplar plantations. Also, West Dongting Lake is at high ecological risk of mercury pollution. Wetland ecosystem monitoring may allow managers to use the information to predict effects of climate change, water level and flow changes on sedimentation, and to manage for desired vegetation to support waterfowl and ecosystem services. The cooperation of two countries through the EcoPartnership program is now well established and poised for extensive research projects in the future.

West Dongting Lake↗

USGS2012

GRACEnet: addressing policy needs through coordinated cross-location research

GRACEnet (Greenhouse gas Reduction through Agricultural Carbon Enhancement network) was conceived to build upon ongoing USDA Agricultural Research Service (ARS) research to improve soil productivity, while addressing the challenges and opportunities of interest in C sequestration from a climate change perspective. The vision for GRACEnet was and remains: Knowledge and information used to implement scientifically based agricultural management practices from the field to national policy scales on C sequestration, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and environmental benefits. The national focus of GRACEnet uses a standardized approach by ARS laboratories and university and land manager (e.g. farmer and rancher) cooperators to assess C sequestration and GHG emission from different crop and grassland systems. Since 2002, GRACEnet has significantly expanded GHG mitigation science and delivered usable information to agricultural research and policy organizations. Recent developments suggest GRACEnet will have international impact by contributing leadership and technical guidance for the Global Research Alliance on Agricultural Greenhouse Gases.

Book chapter↗

USGS2020

Using reproductive potential to assess oyster population sustainability

Ensuring that oysters remain sustainable in the face of significant coastal restoration activities, high local subsidence rates, and predicted sea-level rise requires a deeper understanding of basic population demographics, including reproductive potential. We quantified fecundity (eggs ind −1 ) of oysters at high- and low-salinity sites during a fall and spring spawn season. We assessed the relationships between oyster size, the relative proportion of females across size classes, and fecundity. Finally, we quantified reproductive potential (eggs m −2 ) of an engineered reef by connecting fecundity with annual oyster population demographic data as a means to assess population sustainability. The proportion of females generally increased with shell height, achieving a population with >50% females in Biloxi oysters >75 mm, and Grand Isle oysters >100 mm. Fecundity across both sites and seasons ranged from approximately 2,000 to >55 million eggs oyster −1 . Mean fecundity generally increased with shell height, varying significantly by site, with Grand Isle (high salinity) oysters having greater fecundity than Biloxi (low salinity) oysters. Fecundity did not differ by season. Mean reproductive potential (eggs m −2 ) was driven by density and size distribution. Reefs with high densities and higher counts of market-sized oysters had reproductive potentials 5× greater than those with low densities and low counts of juvenile oysters. With increasing changes in water quality from coastal management and climate, impacts on oyster reproduction may critically impact population sustainability. Reproductive potential provides critical data to assess individual reef ecosystem services, and to assess the potential for maintenance of local metapopulations.

Louisiana↗

USGS2022

Reimagine fire science for the anthropocene

Fire is an integral component of ecosystems globally and a tool that humans have harnessed for millennia. Altered fire regimes are a fundamental cause and consequence of global change, impacting people and the biophysical systems on which they depend. As part of the newly emerging Anthropocene, marked by human-caused climate change and radical changes to ecosystems, fire danger is increasing, and fires are having increasingly devastating impacts on human health, infrastructure, and ecosystem services. Increasing fire danger is a vexing problem that requires deep transdisciplinary, trans-sector, and inclusive partnerships to address. Here, we outline barriers and opportunities in the next generation of fire science and provide guidance for investment in future research. We synthesize insights needed to better address the long-standing challenges of innovation across disciplines to (i) promote coordinated research efforts; (ii) embrace different ways of knowing and knowledge generation; (iii) promote exploration of fundamental science; (iv) capitalize on the “firehose” of data for societal benefit; and (v) integrate human and natural systems into models across multiple scales. Fire science is thus at a critical transitional moment. We need to shift from observation and modeled representations of varying components of climate, people, vegetation, and fire to more integrative and predictive approaches that support pathways toward mitigating and adapting to our increasingly flammable world, including the utilization of fire for human safety and benefit. Only through overcoming institutional silos and accessing knowledge across diverse communities can we effectively undertake research that improves outcomes in our more fiery future.

PNAS Nexus↗

USGS2023

People need freshwater biodiversity

Freshwater biodiversity, from fish to frogs and microbes to macrophytes, provides a vast array of services to people. Mounting concerns focus on the accelerating pace of biodiversity loss and declining ecological function within freshwater ecosystems that continue to threaten these natural benefits. Here, we catalog nine fundamental ecosystem services that the biotic components of indigenous freshwater biodiversity provide to people, organized into three categories: material (food; health and genetic resources; material goods), non-material (culture; education and science; recreation), and regulating (catchment integrity; climate regulation; water purification and nutrient cycling). If freshwater biodiversity is protected, conserved, and restored in an integrated manner, as well as more broadly appreciated by humanity, it will continue to contribute to human well-being and our sustainable future via this wide range of services and associated nature-based solutions to our sustainable future.

WIREs Water↗

USGS2014

Resource manager information needs regarding hydrologic regime shifts for the North Pacific Landscape Conservation

Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) are a network of 22 public-private partnerships, defined by ecoregion, that share and provide science to ensure the sustainability of land, water, wildlife, and cultural resources in North America. LCCs were established by the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) in recognition of the fact that response to climate change must be coordinated on a landscape-level basis because important resources, ecosystem processes, and resource management challenges extend beyond most of the boundaries considered in current natural resource management. The North Pacific LCC (NPLCC) covers the range of the Pacific coastal temperate rainforest, including an area of 528,360 km 2 spanning 22 degrees of latitude from the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska, to Bodega Bay, California. The coverage area includes parts of four States, two Canadian provinces, and more than 100 Tribes and First Nation language groups. It extends from alpine areas at the crest of coastal mountains across subalpine, montane, and lowland forests to the nearshore marine environment. This wide range of latitudes and elevation zones; terrestrial, freshwater, and marine habitats; and complex jurisdictional boundaries hosts a diversity of natural resources and their corresponding management issues are equally diverse. As evidenced by the Science and Traditional Ecological Knowledge (S-TEK) Strategy guiding principles, identifying and responding to the needs of resource managers is key to the success of the NPLCC. To help achieve this goal of the NPLCC, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has organized several workshops with resource managers and resource scientists to identify management information needs relevant to the priority topics identified in the S-TEK Strategy. Here, we detail the results from a first workshop to address the effects of changes in hydrologic regime on rivers, streams, and riparian corridors. The workshop focused on a subset of the full NPLCC geography and was structured to answer the following questions: What are the valued resources and services that may be affected by hydrologic regime changes in the region? What are the management goals for those resources? How is climate change anticipated to affect valued resources and goals? What adaptation strategies may managers use in response to anticipated changes in resources due to climate-related hydrologic change? What information is needed to inform and use management responses?

Open-File Report↗

USGS2011

Seeing the forest and the trees: USGS scientist links local changes to global scale

The recent recipient of two major awards, Craig D. Allen, a research ecologist with the U.S. Geological Survey Fort Collins Science Center, has loved trees since childhood. He is now considered an expert of world renown on the twin phenomena of forest changes and tree mortality resulting from climate warming and drought, and in 2010 was twice recognized for his scientific contributions. In December 2010, Dr. Allen was named a 2010 Fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science “for outstanding leadership in the synthesis of global forest responses to climate change, built from worldwide collaboration and a deep understanding of the environmental history of the southwestern United States.” In March 2010, he was honored with the Meritorious Service Award from the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) in recognition of his outstanding vision, initiative, and scientific contributions to the USGS, DOI, and U.S. Department of Agriculture in establishing a model science program to support adaptive land management at the new Valles Caldera National Preserve in north-central New Mexico. Dr. Allen has authored more than 85 publications on landscape ecology and landscape change, from fire history and ecology to ecosystem responses to climate change. He has appeared on NOVA discussing fire ecology and on The Discovery Channel and Discovery Canada explaining the links between drought-induced tree mortality and climate warming, in addition to being interviewed and quoted in innumerable newspaper articles on both topics. But how did this unassuming scientist grow from nurturing maple saplings on 40 acres in Wisconsin to understanding forest system stress worldwide?

Report↗

USGS2016

Differential heating in the Indian Ocean differentially modulates precipitation in the Ganges and Brahmaputra basins

Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature dynamics play a prominent role in Asian summer monsoon variability. Two interactive climate modes of the Indo-Pacific—the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean dipole mode—modulate the amount of precipitation over India, in addition to precipitation over Africa, Indonesia, and Australia. However, this modulation is not spatially uniform. The precipitation in southern India is strongly forced by the Indian Ocean dipole mode and ENSO. In contrast, across northern India, encompassing the Ganges and Brahmaputra basins, the climate mode influence on precipitation is much less. Understanding the forcing of precipitation in these river basins is vital for food security and ecosystem services for over half a billion people. Using 28 years of remote sensing observations, we demonstrate that (i) the tropical west-east differential heating in the Indian Ocean influences the Ganges precipitation and (ii) the north-south differential heating in the Indian Ocean influences the Brahmaputra precipitation. The El Niño phase induces warming in the warm pool of the Indian Ocean and exerts more influence on Ganges precipitation than Brahmaputra precipitation. The analyses indicate that both the magnitude and position of the sea surface temperature anomalies in the Indian Ocean are important drivers for precipitation dynamics that can be effectively summarized using two new indices, one tuned for each basin. These new indices have the potential to aid forecasting of drought and flooding, to contextualize land cover and land use change, and to assess the regional impacts of climate change.

Remote Sensing↗

USGS2018

The geology and paleontology of Tule Springs Fossil Beds National Monument, Nevada

On December 19, 2014, Tule Springs Fossil Beds National Monument, located in the Las Vegas Valley of southern Nevada, was established by Congress as the 405th unit of the National Park Service to “conserve, protect, interpret, and enhance for the benefit of present and future generations the unique and nationally important paleontological, scientific, educational, and recreational resources and values of the land” (P.L. 113-291, sec. 3092). Vertebrate fossils have been known from the region for more than a century, and recent work has established the Tule Springs local fauna as one of the most significant Pleistocene vertebrate faunas in the American Southwest. The sedimentary sequence that entombs the fossils represents a paleohydrologic system that responded dynamically to abrupt changes in climate throughout the late Quaternary. Work in Tule Springs Fossil Beds National Monument continues today through the efforts of scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey, National Park Service, and academic institutions across the country.

Nevada↗

USGS2020

The role of sand lances (Ammodytes sp.) in the Northwest Atlantic Ecosystem: A synthesis of current knowledge with implications for conservation and management

The American sand lance ( Ammodytes americanus , Ammodytidae) and the Northern sand lance ( A. dubius , Ammodytidae) are small forage fishes that play an important functional role in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean (NWA). The NWA is a highly dynamic ecosystem currently facing increased risks from climate change, fishing and energy development. We need a better understanding of the biology, population dynamics and ecosystem role of Ammodytes to inform relevant management, climate adaptation and conservation efforts. To meet this need, we synthesized available data on the (a) life history, behaviour and distribution; (b) trophic ecology; (c) threats and vulnerabilities; and (d) ecosystem services role of Ammodytes in the NWA. Overall, 72 regional predators including 45 species of fishes, two squids, 16 seabirds and nine marine mammals were found to consume Ammodytes . Priority research needs identified during this effort include basic information on the patterns and drivers in abundance and distribution of Ammodytes , improved assessments of reproductive biology schedules and investigations of regional sensitivity and resilience to climate change, fishing and habitat disturbance. Food web studies are also needed to evaluate trophic linkages and to assess the consequences of inconsistent zooplankton prey and predator fields on energy flow within the NWA ecosystem. Synthesis results represent the first comprehensive assessment of Ammodytes in the NWA and are intended to inform new research and support regional ecosystem‐based management approaches.

Northwest Atlantic↗

USGS2017

The U.S. Geological Survey Monthly Water Balance Model Futures Portal

The U.S. Geological Survey Monthly Water Balance Model Futures Portal ( https://my.usgs.gov/mows/ ) is a user-friendly interface that summarizes monthly historical and simulated future conditions for seven hydrologic and meteorological variables (actual evapotranspiration, potential evapotranspiration, precipitation, runoff, snow water equivalent, atmospheric temperature, and streamflow) at locations across the conterminous United States (CONUS). The estimates of these hydrologic and meteorological variables were derived using a Monthly Water Balance Model (MWBM), a modular system that simulates monthly estimates of components of the hydrologic cycle using monthly precipitation and atmospheric temperature inputs. Precipitation and atmospheric temperature from 222 climate datasets spanning historical conditions (1952 through 2005) and simulated future conditions (2020 through 2099) were summarized for hydrographic features and used to drive the MWBM for the CONUS. The MWBM input and output variables were organized into an open-access database. An Open Geospatial Consortium, Inc., Web Feature Service allows the querying and identification of hydrographic features across the CONUS. To connect the Web Feature Service to the open-access database, a user interface—the Monthly Water Balance Model Futures Portal—was developed to allow the dynamic generation of summary files and plots based on plot type, geographic location, specific climate datasets, period of record, MWBM variable, and other options. Both the plots and the data files are made available to the user for download

Open-File Report↗

USGS2018

Demographic consequences of conservation reserve program grasslands for lesser prairie‐chickens

Knowledge of landscape and regional circumstances where conservation programs are successful on working lands in agricultural production are needed. Converting marginal croplands to grasslands using conservation programs such as the United States Department of Agriculture Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) should be beneficial for many grassland‐obligate wildlife species; however, addition of CRP grasslands may result in different population effects based on regional climate, characteristics of the surrounding landscape, or species planted or established. Within landscapes occupied by lesser prairie‐chickens (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus), CRP may provide habitat only for specific life stages and habitat selection for CRP may vary between wet and dry years. Among all study sites, we captured and fitted 280 female lesser prairie‐chickens with very high frequency (VHF)‐ and global positioning system (GPS) transmitters during the spring lekking seasons of 2013–2015 to monitor habitat selection for CRP in regions of varying climate. We also estimated vital rates and habitat selection for 148 individuals, using sites in northwest Kansas, USA. The greatest ecological services of CRP became apparent when examining habitat selection and densities. Nest densities were approximately 3 times greater in CRP grasslands than native working grasslands (i.e., grazed), demonstrating a population‐level benefit (CRP = 6.0 nests/10 km2 ± 1.29 [SE], native working grassland = 1.7 nests/10 km2 ± 0.62). However, CRP supporting high nest density did not provide brood habitat; 85% of females with broods surviving to 7 days moved their young to other cover types. Regression analyses indicated lesser prairie‐chickens were approximately 8 times more likely to use CRP when 5,000‐ha landscapes were 70% rather than 20% grassland, indicating variation in the level of ecological services provided by CRP was dependent upon composition of the larger landscape. Further, CRP grasslands were 1.7 times more likely to be used by lesser prairie‐chickens in regions receiving 40 cm compared to 70 cm of average annual precipitation and during years of greater drought intensity. Demographic and resource selection analyses revealed that establishing CRP grasslands in northwest Kansas can increase the amount nesting habitat in a region where it may have previously been limited, thereby providing refugia to sustain populations through periods of extreme drought. Nest survival, adult survival during breeding, and nonbreeding season survival did not vary between lesser prairie‐chickens that used and did not use CRP grasslands. The finite rate of population growth was also similar for birds using CRP and using only native working grasslands, suggesting that CRP provides habitat similar to that of native working grassland in this region. Overall, lesser prairie‐chickens may thrive in landscapes that are a mosaic of native working grassland, CRP grassland, with a minimal amount of cropland, particularly when nesting and brood habitat are in close proximity.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2019

Global patterns of tree stem growth and stand aboveground wood production in mangrove forests

Mangrove forests provide important ecological and economic services including carbon sequestration and storage. The conservation and restoration of mangroves are expected to play an important role in mitigating climate change, and understanding the factors influencing mangrove stem growth and wood production are important in predicting and improving mangrove carbon sequestration and responses to environmental change. In this study, we collected data of individual diameter at breast height (DBH) growth rate and stand level aboveground wood production in both non-plantation (commonly termed as natural) mangroves and mangrove plantations across the world. Climatic factors, proxies of edaphic factors, as well as biological factors (e.g. mangrove species) were included as explanatory variables in the analyses to determine factors influencing the global patterns of tree growth rate and stand wood production of mangroves. Using hierarchical Classification and Regression Tree (CART) analysis we found interactions among environmental and biological factors in controlling mangrove tree growth rate and stand wood production. We also found different global patterns of tree growth rate and stand wood production between non-plantation mangroves and plantations. Climatic conditions (precipitation of driest season, precipitation seasonality) were the most important factors influencing the global pattern of tree DBH growth rate in non-plantation mangroves, with edaphic and biological characteristics also playing a role under specific climatic conditions. The global pattern of stand wood production in non-plantation mangroves was primarily determined by stand mean DBH growth rate of individual trees. However, in mangrove plantations management measures, specifically species selection and planting density, were the most important factors influencing the global patterns of tree growth rate and stand wood production. Our study provides parameters for a global estimation of long-term carbon sequestration in both non-plantation mangroves and mangrove plantations. In addition, our results help us better predict the dynamics of tree growth and carbon sequestration of non-plantation mangroves under changing climate.

Forest Ecology and Management↗

USGS2014

Establishing a baseline for regional scale monitoring of eelgrass ( Zostera marina ) habitat on the lower Alaska Peninsula

Seagrass meadows, one of the world’s most widespread and productive ecosystems, provide a wide range of services with real economic value. Worldwide declines in the distribution and abundance of seagrasses and increased threats to coastal ecosystems from climate change have prompted a need to acquire baseline data for monitoring and protecting these important habitats. We assessed the distribution and abundance of eelgrass ( Zostera marina ) along nearly 1200 km of shoreline on the lower Alaska Peninsula, a region of expansive eelgrass meadows whose status and trends are poorly understood. We demonstrate the effectiveness of a multi-scale approach by using Landsat satellite imagery to map the total areal extent of eelgrass while integrating field survey data to improve map accuracy and describe the physical and biological condition of the meadows. Innovative use of proven methods and processing tools was used to address challenges inherent to remote sensing in high latitude, coastal environments. Eelgrass was estimated to cover ~31,000 ha, 91% of submerged aquatic vegetation on the lower Alaska Peninsula, nearly doubling the known spatial extent of eelgrass in the region. Mapping accuracy was 80%–90% for eelgrass distribution at locations containing adequate field survey data for error analysis.

Alaska↗

USGS2009

An emerging crisis across northern prairie refuges: Prevalence of invasive plants and a plan for adaptive management

In the northern Great Plains, native prairies managed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (Service) can be pivotal in conservation of North America's biological diversity. From 2002 to 2006, we surveyed 7,338 belt transects to assess the general composition of mixed-grass and tallgrass prairie vegetation across five "complexes" (i.e., administrative groupings) of national wildlife refuges managed by the Service in North Dakota and South Dakota. Native grasses and forbs were common (mean frequency of occurrence 47%-54%) on two complexes but uncommon (4%-13%) on two others. Conversely, an introduced species of grass, smooth brome (Bromus inermis), accounted for 45% to 49% of vegetation on two complexes and another species, Kentucky bluegrass (Poa pratensis) accounted for 27% to 36% of the vegetation on three of the complexes. Our data confirm prior suspicions of widespread invasion by introduced species of plants on Service-owned tracts of native prairie, changes that likely stem in part from a common management history of little or no disturbance (e.g., defoliation by grazing or fire). However, variability in the degree and type of invasion among prairie tracts suggests that knowledge of underlying causes (e.g., edaphic or climatic factors, management histories) could help managers more effectively restore prairies. We describe an adaptive management approach to acquire such knowledge while progressing with restoration. More specifically, we propose to use data from inventories of plant communities on Service-owned prairies to design and implement, as experiments, optimal restoration strategies. We will then monitor these experiments and use the results to refine future strategies. This comprehensive, process-oriented approach should yield reliable and robust recommendations for restoration and maintenance of native prairies in the northern Great Plains. 2009 by the Board of Regents of the University of Wisconsin System.

Ecological Restoration↗

USGS2013

Desertification of rangelands: 4.20

Desertification, the broad-scale conversion of perennial grasslands to dominance by annuals or xerophytic shrubs, has affected drylands globally over the past several centuries. Desertification is a cumulative threat that includes both climatic (e.g., drought) and land-use drivers (e.g., livestock overgrazing, fire). In this chapter, we determine the vulnerability of different ecosystem services to changes in drivers and ecosystem states, with a focus on the American Southwest. We have four objectives: (1) to describe key services in drylands, (2) to identify consequences of desertification to each service, (3) to explore the vulnerability of each service to future state-changes if existing threats intensify and new threats emerge, and (4) to determine threats expected to have the greatest future impact, and to provide potential actions for mitigation. We conclude with recommendations.

Book chapter↗