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Results for “Climate Change Responses”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

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At least 343 records · Page 19Linked to original sources
USGS2016

Sea level driven marsh expansion in a coupled model of marsh erosion and migration

Coastal wetlands are among the most valuable ecosystems on Earth, where ecosystem services such as flood protection depend nonlinearly on wetland size and are threatened by sea level rise and coastal development. Here we propose a simple model of marsh migration into adjacent uplands and couple it with existing models of seaward edge erosion and vertical soil accretion to explore how ecosystem connectivity influences marsh size and response to sea level rise. We find that marsh loss is nearly inevitable where topographic and anthropogenic barriers limit migration. Where unconstrained by barriers, however, rates of marsh migration are much more sensitive to accelerated sea level rise than rates of edge erosion. This behavior suggests a counterintuitive, natural tendency for marsh expansion with sea level rise and emphasizes the disparity between coastal response to climate change with and without human intervention.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS2017

Landform features and seasonal precipitation predict shallow groundwater influence on temperature in headwater streams

Headwater stream responses to climate change will depend in part on groundwater‐surface water exchanges. We used linear modeling techniques to partition likely effects of shallow groundwater seepage and air temperature on stream temperatures for 79 sites in nine focal watersheds using hourly air and water temperature measurements collected during summer months from 2012 to 2015 in Shenandoah National Park, Virginia, USA. Shallow groundwater effects exhibited more variation within watersheds than between them, indicating the importance of reach‐scale assessments and the limited capacity to extrapolate upstream groundwater influences from downstream measurements. Boosted regression tree (BRT) models revealed intricate interactions among geomorphological landform features (stream slope, elevation, network length, contributing area, and channel confinement) and seasonal precipitation patterns (winter, spring, and summer months) that together were robust predictors of spatial and temporal variation in groundwater influence on stream temperatures. The final BRT model performed well for training data and cross‐validated samples (correlation = 0.984 and 0.760, respectively). Geomorphological and precipitation predictors of groundwater influence varied in their importance between watersheds, suggesting differences in spatial and temporal controls of recharge dynamics and the depth of the groundwater source. We demonstrate an application of the final BRT model to predict groundwater effects from landform and precipitation covariates at 1075 new sites distributed at 100 m increments within focal watersheds. Our study provides a framework to estimate effects of groundwater seepage on stream temperature in unsampled locations. We discuss applications for climate change research to account for groundwater‐surface water interactions when projecting future thermal thresholds for stream biota.

Virginia↗
USGS2019

Geographic variation in the intensity of warming and phenological mismatch between Arctic shorebirds and invertebrates

Responses to climate change can vary across functional groups and trophic levels, leading to a temporal decoupling of trophic interactions or ‘phenological mismatches.’ Despite a growing number of single-species studies that identified phenological mismatches as a nearly universal consequence of climate change, we have a limited understanding of the spatial variation in the intensity of this phenomenon nor what influences this variation. In this study, we tested for geographic patterns in phenological mismatches between six species of shorebirds and their invertebrate prey at ten sites spread across ~13º latitude and ~84º longitude in the Arctic over three years. At each site, we quantified the phenological mismatch between shorebirds and their invertebrate prey at: 1) an individual nest level, as the difference in days between the seasonal peak in food and the peak demand by chicks, and 2) a population level, as the overlapped area under fitted curves for total daily biomass of invertebrates and dates of the peak demand by chicks. We tested whether the intensity of past climatic change observed at each site corresponded with the extent of phenological mismatch and used Structural Equation Modeling to test for causal relationships among: 1) environmental factors, including geographic location and current climatic conditions, 2) the timing of invertebrate emergence and the breeding phenology of shorebirds, and 3) the phenological mismatch between the two trophic levels. The extent of phenological mismatch varied more among different sites than among different species within each site. A greater extent of phenological mismatch at both the individual-nest and population-levels coincided with changes in the timing of snowmelt as well as the potential dissociation of long-term snow phenology from changes in temperature. The timing of snowmelt also affected the shape of the food and demand curves, which determined the extent of phenological mismatch at the population level. Finally, we found larger mismatches at more easterly longitudes, which may be affecting the population dynamics of shorebirds, as two of our study species show regional population declines in only the eastern part of their range. This suggests that phenological mismatches may be resulting in demographic consequences for arctic-nesting birds.

Alaska↗
USGS2017

Estimating thermal performance curves from repeated field observations

Estimating thermal performance of organisms is critical for understanding population distributions and dynamics and predicting responses to climate change. Typically, performance curves are estimated using laboratory studies to isolate temperature effects, but other abiotic and biotic factors influence temperature-performance relationships in nature reducing these models' predictive ability. We present a model for estimating thermal performance curves from repeated field observations that includes environmental and individual variation. We fit the model in a Bayesian framework using MCMC sampling, which allowed for estimation of unobserved latent growth while propagating uncertainty. Fitting the model to simulated data varying in sampling design and parameter values demonstrated that the parameter estimates were accurate, precise, and unbiased. Fitting the model to individual growth data from wild trout revealed high out-of-sample predictive ability relative to laboratory-derived models, which produced more biased predictions for field performance. The field-based estimates of thermal maxima were lower than those based on laboratory studies. Under warming temperature scenarios, field-derived performance models predicted stronger declines in body size than laboratory-derived models, suggesting that laboratory-based models may underestimate climate change effects. The presented model estimates true, realized field performance, avoiding assumptions required for applying laboratory-based models to field performance, which should improve estimates of performance under climate change and advance thermal ecology.

Ecology↗
USGS2025

Cryptic ice wedge networks in Holocene peat, Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska

The Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (YKD), covering ~75,000 km 2 of Alaska's discontinuous permafrost zone, has a historic (1902–2023) mean annual air temperature of ~−1°C and was previously thought to lack ice wedge networks. However, our recent investigations near Bethel, Alaska, revealed numerous near-surface ice wedges. Using 20 cm resolution aerial orthoimagery from 2018, we identified ~50 linear km of ice wedge troughs in a 60 km 2 study area. Fieldwork in 2023 and 2024 confirmed ice wedges up to ~1.5 m wide and ~2.5 m in vertical extent, situated on average 0.9 m below the tundra surface ( n = 29). Ground-penetrating radar (GPR) detected additional ice wedges beyond those visible in the remote sensing imagery, suggesting an underestimation of their true abundance. Coring of polygonal centers revealed late-Quaternary deposits, including thick early Holocene peat, late-Pleistocene ice-rich silts (reworked Yedoma), charcoal layers from tundra fires, and the Aniakchak CFE II tephra (~3600 cal yrs BP). Stable water isotopes from Bethel's wedge ice (mean δ 18 O = −15.7 ‰, δ 2 H = −113.1 ‰) indicate a relatively enriched signature compared to other Holocene ice wedges in Alaska, likely due to warmer temperatures and maritime influences. Expanding our mapping across the YKD using high-resolution satellite imagery from 2012 to 2024, we estimate that the Holocene ice wedge zone encompasses ~30% of the YKD tundra region. Our findings demonstrate that ice wedge networks are more widespread across the YKD than previously recognized, emphasizing both the resilience and vulnerability of the region's warm, ice-rich permafrost. These insights are crucial for understanding permafrost responses to climate change and assessing agricultural potential and development in the region.

Alaska↗
USGS2006

Analysis of the surface hydrology in a regional climate model

This paper discusses the surface hydrology of a multi‐year simulation of present day climate over the United States (US) conducted with a regional climate model (RegCM) nested within a general circulation model (GCM). The RegCM, which is run with a 60 km gridpoint spacing is interactively coupled with a state‐of‐the‐art surface physics package that includes full surface hydrology calculations (the Biosphere‐Atmosphere Transfer Scheme or BATS). The hydrologic budgets of ten regional drainage basins in the US are analysed. Model results are compared with available observations and with results from previous modelling experiments to evaluate the feasibility of using nested RegCM/GCM models for hydrology studies. In our experiment, the model captures the basic seasonality of the basin hydrologic budgets, although the simulated precipitation amounts are too high over the western US and too low over the eastern US. As a result, runoff, snow cover and soil water content are underestimated over the eastern US basins, while evaporation and runoff are overestimated in some of the western US basins. Topographically induced characteristics of precipitation, snow cover and runoff are well simulated over the mountainous western regions. Also well captured is the inter‐basin variation of hydrologic budgets which occurs in response to different climatic settings. The springtime snowmelt and peak runoff season generally occurs in the model earlier in the year than is observed. Although our work indicates that the coupled regional modelling system can be useful in applications to hydrological studies, results from this experiment indicate that better accuracy in the simulation of regional climatic variables and more detailed representation of some hydrologic processes would be required before the coupled modelling system could be used to provide accurate assessments of hydrologic responses to climate change.

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Soci↗
USGS2021

Culverts delay upstream and downstream migrations of river herring (Alosa spp.)

Alewife ( Alosa pseudoharengus ) and blueback herring ( Alosa aestivalis ) are iteroparous anadromous fish found throughout the East Coast of North America. The phenology of anadromous fish migrations is important for fitness, and the duration of spawning migrations has been compressed in recent years in response to climate change. Anthropogenic barriers to movement, such as dams and culverts at road-stream crossings, can further disrupt migration phenology by delaying movement and increasing predation risk. We used passive integrated transponder (PIT) telemetry to quantify upstream and downstream migratory delay at five road-stream-crossing culverts on the Herring River (MA, USA). Groundspeeds were reduced at all culverts in both directions, confirming that the culverts impede movement despite high passage proportions. The cumulative delay of the culverts on the upstream migration was sufficient to more than double the amount of time required to traverse the river if the culverts had been absent. Furthermore, the presence of snapping turtles ( Chelydra serpentina ) ambushing river herring within one of the culverts resulted in reduced passage rates beyond the reduction in movement caused by the physical structure itself. This highlights that physical barriers can create cascading ecological consequences and the importance of taking a holistic approach to understanding barrier effects.

Massachusetts↗
USGS2018

Looking beyond wildlife: Using remote cameras to evaluate accuracy of gridded snow data

The use of remote cameras is widespread in wildlife ecology, yet few examples exist of their utility for collecting environmental data. We used a novel camera trap method to evaluate the accuracy of gridded snow data in a mountainous region of the northeastern US. We were specifically interested in assessing (1) how snow depth observations from remote cameras compare with gridded climate data, (2) the sources of error associated with the gridded data and (3) the influence of spatial sampling on bias. We compared daily observations recorded by remote cameras with Snow Data Assimilation System (SNODAS ) gridded predictions using data from three winters (2014–2016). Snow depth observations were correlated with SNODAS predictions for sites ( R 2 = 0.20) and regions ( R 2 = 0.16), yet we detected factors associated with SNODAS bias at both scales. Specifically, SNODAS underpredicted depths at high elevations, at sites with higher solar radiation, and within conifer‐dominated forest. Depths were most underpredicted at highest elevations, up to 44 and 26 cm on average at the site and region scales, respectively. Bias was greatest when predictions were lowest, occasionally predicting snow absence when depths were >100 cm at camera sites. We also detected breakdowns in accuracy when certain environmental conditions varied within the 1 km 2 SNODAS grid cells. For example, underprediction was greatest when the solar radiation values of camera stations increased relative to the mean of the SNODAS grid cells. This relationship was most prominent in mountainous regions, suggesting that factors which influence solar radiation (e.g. topographic complexity) contribute to SNODAS inaccuracy. We caution using gridded snow data for ecological studies when bias is unknown. We suggest increased sampling to adjust for errors associated with gridded data products that arise from factors, such as forest cover and topographic variability. Increasing resolution and accuracy of climate data will improve predictions of species’ responses to climate change.

New Hampshire, Vermont↗
USGS2015

Assessment and Mmanagement of North American horseshoe crab populations, with emphasis on a multispecies framework for Delaware Bay, U.S.A. populations: Chapter 24

The horseshoe crab fishery on the US Atlantic coast represents a compelling fishery management story for many reasons, including ecological complexity, health and human safety ramifications, and socio-economic conflicts. Knowledge of stock status and assessment and monitoring capabilities for the species have increased greatly in the last 15 years and permitted managers to make more informed harvest recommendations. Incorporating the bioenergetics needs of migratory shorebirds, which feed on horseshoe crab eggs, into the management framework for horseshoe crabs was identified as a goal, particularly in the Delaware Bay region where the birds and horseshoe crabs exhibit an important ecological interaction. In response, significant effort was invested in studying the population dynamics, migration ecology, and the ecologic relationship of a key migratory shorebird, the Red Knot, to horseshoe crabs. A suite of models was developed that linked Red Knot populations to horseshoe crab populations through a mass gain function where female spawning crab abundance determined what proportion of the migrating Red Knot population reached a critical body mass threshold. These models were incorporated in an adaptive management framework wherein optimal harvest decisions for horseshoe crab are recommended based on several resource-based and value-based variables and thresholds. The current adaptive framework represents a true multispecies management effort where additional data over time are employed to improve the predictive models and reduce parametric uncertainty. The possibility of increasing phenologic asynchrony between the two taxa in response to climate change presents a potential challenge to their ecologic interaction in Delaware Bay.

Book chapter↗
USGS2014

Phenological adjustment in arctic bird species: relative importance of snow melt and ecological factors

Previous studies have documented advancement in clutch initiation dates (CIDs) in response to climate change, most notably for temperate-breeding passerines. Despite accelerated climate change in the Arctic, few studies have examined nest phenology shifts in arctic breeding species. We investigated whether CIDs have advanced for the most abundant breeding shorebird and passerine species at a long-term monitoring site in arctic Alaska. We pooled data from three additional nearby sites to determine the explanatory power of snow melt and ecological variables (predator abundance, green-up) on changes in breeding phenology. As predicted, all species (semipalmated sandpiper, Calidris pusilla , pectoral sandpiper, Calidris melanotos , red-necked phalarope, Phalaropus lobatus , red phalarope, Phalaropus fulicarius , Lapland longspur, Calcarius lapponicus ) exhibited advanced CIDs ranging from 0.40 to 0.80 days/year over 9 years. Timing of snow melt was the most important variable in explaining clutch initiation advancement (“climate/snow hypothesis”) for four of the five species, while green-up was a much less important explanatory factor. We found no evidence that high predator abundances led to earlier laying dates (“predator/re-nest hypothesis”). Our results support previous arctic studies in that climate change in the cryosphere will have a strong impact on nesting phenology although factors explaining changes in nest phenology are not necessarily uniform across the entire Arctic. Our results suggest some arctic-breeding shorebird and passerine species are altering their breeding phenology to initiate nesting earlier enabling them to, at least temporarily, avoid the negative consequences of a trophic mismatch.

Alaska↗
USGS2024

Local environmental conditions structured discrete fish assemblages in Arctic lagoons

Rapid changes in sea ice extent and changes in freshwater inputs from land are rapidly changing the nature of Arctic estuarine ecosystems. In the Beaufort Sea, these nearshore habitats are known for their high productivity and mix of marine resident and diadromous fishes that have great subsistence value for Indigenous communities. There is, however, a lack of information on the spatial variation among Arctic nearshore fish communities as related to environmental drivers. In summers of 2017–2019, we sampled fishes in four estuarine ecosystems to assess community composition and relate fish abundance to temperature, salinity, and wind conditions. We found fish communities were heterogeneous over larger spatial extents with rivers forming fresh estuarine plumes that supported diadromous species (e.g., broad whitefish Coregonus nasus ), while lagoons with reduced freshwater input and higher salinities were associated with marine species (e.g., saffron cod Eleginus gracilis ). West–East directional winds accounted for up to 66% of the community variation, indicating importance of the wind-driven balance between fresh and marine water masses. Salinity and temperature accounted for up to 54% and 37% of the variation among lagoon communities, respectively. Recent sea ice declines provide more opportunity for wind to influence oceanographic conditions and biological communities. Current subsistence practices, future commercial fishing opportunities, and on-going oil and gas activities benefit from a better understanding of current fish community distributions. This work provides important data on fish spatial distributions and community composition, providing a basis for fish community response to changing climatic conditions and anthropogenic use.

Polar Biology↗
USGS2012

The response of Lake Tahoe to climate change

Meteorology is the driving force for lake internal heating, cooling, mixing, and circulation. Thus continued global warming will affect the lake thermal properties, water level, internal nutrient loading, nutrient cycling, food-web characteristics, fish-habitat, aquatic ecosystem, and other important features of lake limnology. Using a 1-D numerical model - the Lake Clarity Model (LCM) - together with the down-scaled climatic data of the two emissions scenarios (B1 and A2) of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Global Circulation Model, we found that Lake Tahoe will likely cease to mix to the bottom after about 2060 for A2 scenario, with an annual mixing depth of less than 200 m as the most common value. Deep mixing, which currently occurs on average every 3-4 years, will (under the GFDL B1 scenario) occur only four times during 2061 to 2098. When the lake fails to completely mix, the bottom waters are not replenished with dissolved oxygen and eventually dissolved oxygen at these depths will be depleted to zero. When this occurs, soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) and ammonium-nitrogen (both biostimulatory) are released from the deep sediments and contribute approximately 51 % and 14 % of the total SRP and dissolved inorganic nitrogen load, respectively. The lake model suggests that climate change will drive the lake surface level down below the natural rim after 2085 for the GFDL A2 but not the GFDL B1 scenario. The results indicate that continued climate changes could pose serious threats to the characteristics of the Lake that are most highly valued. Future water quality planning must take these results into account.

California;Nevada↗
USGS2015

Landscape genomics of Sphaeralcea ambigua in the Mojave Desert: a multivariate, spatially-explicit approach to guide ecological restoration

Local adaptation influences plant species’ responses to climate change and their performance in ecological restoration. Fine-scale physiological or phenological adaptations that direct demographic processes may drive intraspecific variability when baseline environmental conditions change. Landscape genomics characterize adaptive differentiation by identifying environmental drivers of adaptive genetic variability and mapping the associated landscape patterns. We applied such an approach to Sphaeralcea ambigua , an important restoration plant in the arid southwestern United States, by analyzing variation at 153 amplified fragment length polymorphism loci in the context of environmental gradients separating 47 Mojave Desert populations. We identified 37 potentially adaptive loci through a combination of genome scan approaches. We then used a generalized dissimilarity model (GDM) to relate variability in potentially adaptive loci with spatial gradients in temperature, precipitation, and topography. We identified non-linear thresholds in loci frequencies driven by summer maximum temperature and water stress, along with continuous variation corresponding to temperature seasonality. Two GDM-based approaches for mapping predicted patterns of local adaptation are compared. Additionally, we assess uncertainty in spatial interpolations through a novel spatial bootstrapping approach. Our study presents robust, accessible methods for deriving spatially-explicit models of adaptive genetic variability in non-model species that will inform climate change modelling and ecological restoration.

California, Nevada↗
USGS1994

Palynological record from the North Atlantic region at 3 Ma: Vegetational distribution during a period of global warmth

Pollen assemblages from five mid-Pliocene, deep-marine and shallow-marine sites in the North Atlantic Ocean region were analyzed quantitatively to estimate vegetational composition and terrestrial paleoclimates during a time interval centered at about 3 Ma. Three subarctic sites (58–67°N latitude) from the Norwegian Sea, northern Iceland, and the Labrador Sea yielded pollen assemblages characteristic of mixed conifer-hardwood vegetation; these assemblages have no close modern analogs, but the most similar modern vegetation is that of the Tsuga (hemlock)-northern hardwood forests of Newfoundland and Nova Scotia (45–50°N). The presence of such vegetation at these sites indicates mid-Pliocene January temperatures from 4 to 10°C warmer than today and a northward shift of the deciduous forest zone into areas presently occupied by boreal forests. Pollen assemblages from the mid-latitude (36°N) Yorktown Formation site in southeastern Virginia, USA represent Quercus-Carya-Pinus (oak-hickory-pine) forests, similar to those presently occupying much of the Atlantic coastal plain of the United States. Modern analogs for this site are located off the coasts of North Carolina and South Carolina, indicating mid-Pliocene January temperatures 3–5°C warmer than today. In southwestern Florida (27°N), pollen assemblages from the mid-Pliocene Pincrest Beds are representative of pine-dominated communities, similar to Pinus palustris/P. ellittii forests (longleaf/slash pine) growing in Florida today. Close modern analogs for the Pinecrest Beds are located at numerous sites around the Florida peninsula, indicating mid-Pliocene temperatures about the same as today for this region. These sites show a gradient from much higher than present temperatures at high latitudes to little change from present temperatures at low latitudes and low elevations; a similar pattern is shown by mid-Pliocene sea-surface and isotopic data. Such a gradient also is consistent with the northward migration of the boreal forest zone, covering sites as far north as Meighen and Banks Islands, a northward shift of the deciduous-boreal forest boundary in both North America and Europe, and little change in vegetational distribution in low elevation sites in subtropical latitudes during the mid-Pliocene warm interval. Atmospheric temperaturs estimated from vegetational distributions indicate a Pliocene to modern temperature anomaly of a similar pattern and magnitude to that indicated by sea-surface temperatures. These data are most consistent with current general circulation model simulations of climate changes in response to increased meridional heat transport.

Florida, Newfoundland and Labrador, Virginia↗
USGS2025

Network of networks: Time series clustering of AmeriFlux sites

Environmental observation networks, such as AmeriFlux, are foundational for monitoring ecosystem response to climate change, management practices, and natural disturbances; however, their effectiveness depends on their representativeness for the regions or continents. We proposed an empirical, time series approach to quantify the similarity of ecosystem fluxes across AmeriFlux sites. We extracted the diel and seasonal characteristics (i.e., amplitudes, phases) from carbon dioxide, water vapor, energy, and momentum fluxes, which reflect the effects of climate, plant phenology, and ecophysiology on the observations, and explored the potential aggregations of AmeriFlux sites through hierarchical clustering. While net radiation and temperature showed latitudinal clustering as expected, flux variables revealed a more uneven clustering with many small (number of sites < 5), unique groups and a few large (> 100) to intermediate (15–70) groups, highlighting the significant ecological regulations of ecosystem fluxes. Many identified unique groups were from under-sampled ecoregions and biome types of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP), with distinct flux dynamics compared to the rest of the network. At the finer spatial scale, local topography, disturbance, management, edaphic, and hydrological regimes further enlarge the difference in flux dynamics within the groups. Nonetheless, our clustering approach is a data-driven method to interpret the AmeriFlux network, informing future cross-site syntheses, upscaling, and model-data benchmarking research. Finally, we highlighted the unique and underrepresented sites in the AmeriFlux network, which were found mainly in Hawaii and Latin America, mountains, and at under-sampled IGBP types (e.g., urban, open water), motivating the incorporation of new/unregistered sites from these groups.

Agricultural and Forest Meteorology↗
USGS2016

Organic petrology and geochemistry of mudrocks from the lacustrine Lucaogou Formation, Santanghu Basin, northwest China: Application to lake basin evolution

Exploration for tight oil in the frontier Santanghu Basin of northwest China has resulted in recent commercial discoveries sourced from the lacustrine Upper Permian Lucaogou Formation, already considered a “world class source rock” in the Junggar Basin to the west. Here we apply an integrated analytical program to carbonate-dominated mudrocks from the Lucaogou Formation in Santanghu Basin to document the nature of organic matter (OM) in the context of an evolving lake system. The organic-rich samples (TOC 2.8–11.4 wt%; n = 10) were widely spaced from an ~ 200 m cored section, interpreted from textural and mineralogical evidence to document transition from a lower under-filled to an overlying balanced-filled lake. Organic matter is dominated by moderate to strongly fluorescent amorphous material with Type I geochemical signature (HI values 510–755; n = 10) occurring in a continuum from lamellar stringers, 10–20 μm thick, some ≥ 1 mm in length (possible microbial mat; preserved only in lower under-filled section) to finely-disseminated amorphous groundmass intimately intermixed with mineral matrix. Biomarkers for methanotrophs and photosynthetic cyanobacteria indicate a complex microbial consortium. A unicellular prasinophyte green alga(?), similar to Tasmanites in marine rocks, is present as discrete flattened discs 50–100 μm in diameter. Type III OM including vitrinite (some fluorescent) and inertinite also is abundant. Solid bitumen, indicating local kerogen conversion, fills voids and occurs throughout the cored section. Vitrinite reflectance values are 0.47–0.58%, consistent with strong OM fluorescence but may be “suppressed”. Other proxies, e.g., biomarker parameters, indicate the Lucaogou Formation is in the early oil window at this location. On average, slightly more amorphous OM and telalginite are present in the lower section, consistent with a shallow, stratified, saline environment with low sediment dilution. More inertinite is present in the upper section, indicating greater terrestrial influx and consistent with higher quartz and plagioclase content (dominantly authigenic chalcedony and albite). Laminated mudstones in the upper section indicate anoxia prevented bioturbation from benthic grazing, also indicating stratified water column conditions. A decrease upsection in authigenic dolomite with reciprocal increase of ankerite/siderite is consistent with decreasing salinity, as is an overall decrease in gammacerane index values. These observations suggest evolution from a shallow, stratified evaporative (saline) setting to a deeper, stratified freshwater basin with higher water input during Lucaogou deposition. The evolution from an under-filled to balance-filled lake in Santanghu Basin is similar to Lucaogou deposition in Junggar Basin, suggesting similar tectonic and climatic controls. Paleoclimate interpretations from other researchers in this area suggested an evolution from semi-arid to humid conditions during the Roadian; we interpret that the evolution from an under-filled to balanced-filled lake seen in our data is in response to climate change, and may represent increased groundwater delivery to the Santanghu Basin.

International Journal of Coal Geology↗
USGS2021

Estimating age and growth of invasive sea lamprey: A review of approaches and investigation of a new method

We review recent advances in age and growth estimation of invasive sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ) in the Great Lakes and present a more accurate method for growth estimation. To forecast growth and prioritize streams for control actions, sea lamprey managers currently use an average daily growth model. Here, a new linear model that included stream and lake as contributing variables was investigated and found to outperform the currently used growth model (roughly a 10 mm difference at age 1). Length-at-age of larvae between ages 1 and 4 were also best forecasted by a linear model with the predictor variables including growing degree days, stream, lake, and larval lamprey density. The model predicts that larval sea lamprey grow faster in warm streams with low densities of lamprey larvae. More accurate growth models could allow sea lamprey control managers to improve decisions concerning how sea lamprey control effort is allocated among streams, and could help inform broader modeling efforts evaluating the population demographics of a lake-wide populations exposed to varying control and environmental scenarios. Priority areas for research include investigating if temperatures have increased in sea lamprey-producing streams in response to climate change, using close-kin mark-recapture to mark family groups at age 1 to age large larvae and transformers years later, and determining if sex determination is environmentally mediated by larval growth and density.

Great Lakes↗
USGS2022

Effects of warming winter embryo incubation temperatures on larval cisco (Coregonus artedi) survival, growth, and critical thermal maximum

Freshwater whitefishes, Salmonidae Coregoninae, are cold stenothermic fishes of ecological and socio-economic importance in northern hemisphere lakes that are warming in response to climate change. To address the effect of warming waters on coregonine reproduction we experimentally evaluated different embryo incubation temperatures on post-hatching survival, growth, and critical thermal maximum of larval cisco ( Coregonus artedi ) sampled from lakes Superior and Ontario. Embryos were incubated at water temperatures of 2.0, 4.4, 6.9, and 8.9 °C to simulate present and increased winter temperatures, and hatched larvae were reared in a common environment. For the populations from both lakes, larval survival and critical thermal maximum were negatively related to incubation temperature, and larval growth was positively related to incubation temperature. The magnitude of change across incubation temperatures was greater in the population sampled from Lake Superior than Lake Ontario for all traits examined. The more rapid decrease in survival and critical thermal maximum across incubation temperatures for larval cisco in Lake Superior, compared to those from Lake Ontario, suggests that Lake Superior larvae may possess a more limited ability to acclimate to and cope with increasing winter water temperatures. However, the rapid increase in growth rates across incubation temperatures in Lake Superior larvae suggests they could recover better from hatching at a small length induced by warm winters, as compared to Lake Ontario larvae. Our results suggest propagation and restoration programs may want to consider integrating natural habitat preferences and maximizing phenotypic variability to ensure offspring are set up for success upon stocking.

Lake Ontario, Lake Superior↗