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At least 343 records · Page 19Linked to original sources
USGS2006

Introduction to ‘Antarctic climate evolution: View from the margin’

This special issue on “Antarctic Climate Evolution—view from the margin” presents results from modelling studies and reports on geoscience data aimed at improving our understanding of the behaviour of the Antarctic ice sheet and the climate of the region. This research field is of interest because of the sensitivity of the polar regions to global warming, and because of the influence of the Antarctic ice sheet on global sea level and climate through most if not all of the Cenozoic Era. The Antarctic ice sheet both responds to and forces changes on global climate and sea level. We need to be aware of the scale and frequency of these changes if we are to understand past patterns of environmental change elsewhere on earth. It was only three decades ago that we discovered from strata drilled in shelf basins on the Antarctic margin that the Antarctic ice sheet had a history that predated the Quaternary ice ages by over 20 million years ( Hayes et al., 1975 ). Later that year the first interpretation of Antarctic glacial history through the Cenozoic Era from oxygen isotopes, recorded in foraminifera from deep-sea sediment cores, was published ( Shackleton and Kennett, 1975 ). Revisions with a more extensive database have modified the story a little ( Miller et al., 1987 , Zachos et al., 2001 ), and there have been recent attempts to resolve the temperature–ice volume ambiguity ( Lear et al., 2000 ). However, reports on strata drilled on the Antarctic margin have unambiguously shown the character of this huge ice sheet, which was oscillating in the Oligocene ( Barrett et al., 1987 , Barrett, 1999 ) with a period and magnitude comparable with the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets of the Quaternary ( Naish et al., 2001a , Naish et al., 2001b ). In this issue we present further research on the history of the Antarctic ice sheet from Oligocene to recent times, most of them from the Antarctic margin, but with some on the nature of the deep-sea isotope record, and others using recently developed modeling techniques to investigate the influence of atmosphere, ocean and biosphere on past Antarctic climate. This special issue is the third in three years on the theme of Antarctic Climate Evolution. The first followed a workshop in Erice, Sicily, in 2001 to report on results from ANTOSTRAT, a SCAR-sponsored project for gathering and analysing circum-Antarctic seismic data for planning and promoting offshore drilling for climate history. The introduction to that issue (Florindo et al., 2003) provides a review of the recent history of circum-Antarctic drilling by the Ocean Drilling Program (Legs 113, 114, 119, 120, 177, 178, 188 and 189) and the Cape Roberts Project. For a more comprehensive review of earlier drilling in the Ross Sea region (Deep Sea Drilling Project Leg 28, Dry Valley Drilling Project, McMurdo Sound Sediment and Tectonic Studies, Cenozoic Investigations in the western Ross Sea) see Hambrey and Barrett (1993). The first of these issues (Florindo et al., 2003) featured a global plate reconstruction of the Southern Hemisphere through Cenozoic time with emphasis on evolution of Cenozoic seaways (Lawver and Gahagan, 2003) along with a study of the inception and early evolution of the EAIS using a new coupled global climate (GCM)–dynamic ice sheet model (DeConto and Pollard, 2003b), as well as data from recent drilling around the margin covering time period from Cretaceous to the present. A second special issue on the same theme (Florindo et al., 2005) also featured a mix of modelling and data papers with a focus on the Eocene–Oligocene boundary and the initiation of ice sheet growth, including a pioneering attempt to evaluate the relative influence of fluvial versus glacial processes in shaping the landscape of the Prydz Bay sector of Antarctica (Jamieson et al., 2005). The remainder of the issue comprised further papers on seismic stratigraphy and reports from drilling around the margin. The papers to be found in this special issue, like the previous two, maintain the mix of modelling- and data-oriented papers that reflect the range of this research.

Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology↗
USGS2024

Climate change amplifies ongoing declines in sagebrush ecological integrity

Understanding how climate change will contribute to ongoing declines in sagebrush ecological integrity is critical for informing natural resource management, yet complicated by interactions with wildfire and biological invasions. Here, we assessed potential future changes in sagebrush ecological integrity under a range of scenarios using an individual plant-based simulation model, integrated with remotely sensed estimates of current sagebrush ecological integrity. The simulation model allowed us to estimate how climate change, wildfire, and invasive annuals interact to alter the potential abundance of key plant functional types that influence sagebrush ecological integrity: sagebrush, perennial grasses, and annual grasses. Our results suggest that climate driven reductions in sagebrush ecological integrity may occur over broader areas than increases in sagebrush ecological integrity. Declines in sagebrush ecological integrity were most likely in hot and dry regions while increases were more likely in cool and wet regions. Increases in wildfire probability, largely driven by increasing invasive annual grass abundance, resulted in projected declines in sagebrush abundance and sagebrush ecological integrity in some regions, particularly the Great Basin. The most common projected transitions in sagebrush habitat classification were declines from Core Sagebrush Area to Growth Opportunity Area and from Growth Opportunity Area to Other Rangeland Area. Responses varied considerably across projections from different global climate models, highlighting the importance of climate uncertainty. However, our projections tended to be robust in areas that currently have the highest sagebrush ecological integrity. Our results provide a long-term perspective on the vulnerability of sagebrush ecosystems to climate change and may inform geographic prioritization of conservation and restoration investments. These results suggest that ongoing threats, such as the continued invasion by annual grasses and increased wildfire frequency, are likely to be amplified by climate change, and imply that the current imbalance between capacity for conservation to address threats to sagebrush will grow as the climate warms.

Rangeland Ecology and Management↗
USGS2022

Perils of life on the edge: Climatic threats to global diversity patterns of wetland macroinvertebrates

Climate change is rapidly driving global biodiversity declines. How wetland macroinvertebrate assemblages are responding is unclear, a concern given their vital function in these ecosystems. Using a data set from 769 minimally impacted depressional wetlands across the globe (467 temporary and 302 permanent), we evaluated how temperature and precipitation (average, range, variability) affects the richness and beta diversity of 144 macroinvertebrate families. To test the effects of climatic predictors on macroinvertebrate diversity, we fitted generalized additive mixed-effects models (GAMM) for family richness and generalized dissimilarity models (GDMs) for total beta diversity. We found non-linear relationships between family richness, beta diversity, and climate. Maximum temperature was the main climatic driver of wetland macroinvertebrate richness and beta diversity, but precipitation seasonality was also important. Assemblage responses to climatic variables also depended on wetland water permanency. Permanent wetlands from warmer regions had higher family richness than temporary wetlands. Interestingly, wetlands in cooler and dry-warm regions had the lowest taxonomic richness, but both kinds of wetlands supported unique assemblages. Our study suggests that climate change will have multiple effects on wetlands and their macroinvertebrate diversity, mostly via increases in maximum temperature, but also through changes in patterns of precipitation. The most vulnerable wetlands to climate change are likely those located in warm-dry regions, where entire macroinvertebrate assemblages would be extirpated. Montane and high-latitude wetlands (i.e., cooler regions) are also vulnerable to climate change, but we do not expect entire extirpations at the family level.

Science of the Total Environment↗
USGS2023

Modeled distribution shifts of North American birds over four decades based on suitable climate alone do not predict observed shifts

As climate change alters the global environment, it is critical to understand the relationship between shifting climate suitability and species distributions. Key questions include whether observed changes in population abundance are aligned with the velocity and direction of shifts predicted by climate suitability models and if the responses are consistent among species with similar ecological traits. We examined the direction and velocity of the observed abundance-based distribution centroids compared with the model-predicted bioclimatic distribution centroids of 250 bird species across the United States from 1969 to 2011. We hypothesized that there is a significant positive correlation in both direction and velocity between the observed and the modeled shifts. We then tested five additional hypotheses that predicted differential shifting velocity based on ecological adaptability and climate change exposure. Contrary to our hypotheses, we found large differences between the observed and modeled shifts among all studied bird species and within specific ecological guilds. However, temperate migrants and habitat generalist species tended to have higher velocity of observed shifts than other species. Neotropical migratory and wetland birds also had significantly different observed velocities than their counterparts, which may be due to their climate change exposure. The velocity based on modeled bioclimatic suitability did not exhibit significant differences among most guilds. Boreal forest birds were the only guild with significantly faster modeled-shifts than the other groups, suggesting an elevated conservation risk for high latitude and altitude species. The highly idiosyncratic species responses to climate and the mismatch between shifts in modeled and observed distribution centroids highlight the challenge of predicting species distribution change based solely on climate suitability and the importance of non-climatic factors traits in shaping species distributions.

Science of the Total Environment↗
USGS2020

Climate dipoles as continental drivers of plant and animal populations

Ecological processes, such as migration and phenology, are strongly influenced by climate variability. Studying these processes often relies on associating observations of animals and plants with climate variability indices, such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. A characteristic of climate indices is the simultaneous emergence of opposite extremes of temperature and precipitation across continental scales, known as climate dipoles. The role of climate dipoles in shaping ecological and evolutionary processes has been largely overlooked. We review emerging evidence that climate dipoles can entrain species dynamics, and offer a framework for identifying ecological dipoles using broad-scale biological data. Given future changes in climatic and atmospheric processes, climate and ecological dipoles will likely shift in their intensity, distribution, and timing.

Trends in Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2012

A method for physically based model analysis of conjunctive use in response to potential climate changes

Potential climate change effects on aspects of conjunctive management of water resources can be evaluated by linking climate models with fully integrated groundwater-surface water models. The objective of this study is to develop a modeling system that links global climate models with regional hydrologic models, using the California Central Valley as a case study. The new method is a supply and demand modeling framework that can be used to simulate and analyze potential climate change and conjunctive use. Supply-constrained and demand-driven linkages in the water system in the Central Valley are represented with the linked climate models, precipitation-runoff models, agricultural and native vegetation water use, and hydrologic flow models to demonstrate the feasibility of this method. Simulated precipitation and temperature were used from the GFDL-A2 climate change scenario through the 21st century to drive a regional water balance mountain hydrologic watershed model (MHWM) for the surrounding watersheds in combination with a regional integrated hydrologic model of the Central Valley (CVHM). Application of this method demonstrates the potential transition from predominantly surface water to groundwater supply for agriculture with secondary effects that may limit this transition of conjunctive use. The particular scenario considered includes intermittent climatic droughts in the first half of the 21st century followed by severe persistent droughts in the second half of the 21st century. These climatic droughts do not yield a valley-wide operational drought but do cause reduced surface water deliveries and increased groundwater abstractions that may cause additional land subsidence, reduced water for riparian habitat, or changes in flows at the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta. The method developed here can be used to explore conjunctive use adaptation options and hydrologic risk assessments in regional hydrologic systems throughout the world.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2019

Downstream‐propagating channel responses to decadal‐scale climate variability in a glaciated river basin

Regional climate is an important control on the rate of coarse sediment mobilization and transport in alpine river systems. Changes in climate are then expected to cause a cascade of geomorphic responses, including adjustments in downstream channel morphology. However, the mechanics and sensitivity of channel response to short‐term climate variability remain poorly documented. In the Nooksack River, which drains a glaciated stratovolcano in Washington State, bed elevation changes were inferred from shifting stage–discharge relations at seven USGS stream gages. Decadal‐scale elevation trends at most sites can be explained as a downstream‐propagating channel response to regional climate variability, where periods of persistent warm, dry [cool, wet] conditions corresponded to periods of aggradation [incision]. The channel elevation response propagated downstream at a rate of one to four kilometers per year; propagation rate scaled closely with channel slope. Historical trends in glacier extent and flood intensity both show some potential to explain climate–sediment linkages, though assessing causation is complicated by the shared climate signal in both records. Results show the influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, with relatively high coarse sediment yields prior to 1950 and since 1980, and notably lower sediment yields from 1950 to 1980. Measured sediment yields from nearby glaciated basins corroborate this history, suggesting a regional coherence to these climate–sediment linkages. These results document consistent relations between climate, sediment supply and downstream channel response at the basin‐scale, with channel responses propagating downstream over periods of decades with little apparent attenuation.

Washington↗
USGS2020

Geomorphic and sedimentary effects of modern climate change: Current and anticipated future conditions in the western United States

Hydroclimatic changes associated with global warming over the past 50 years have been documented widely, but physical landscape responses are poorly understood thus far. Detecting sedimentary and geomorphic signals of modern climate change presents challenges owing to short record lengths, difficulty resolving signals in stochastic natural systems, influences of land use and tectonic activity, long‐lasting effects of individual extreme events, and variable connectivity in sediment‐routing systems. We review existing literature to investigate the nature and extent of sedimentary and geomorphic responses to modern climate change, focusing on the western United States, a region with generally high relief and high sediment yield likely to be sensitive to climatic forcing. Based on fundamental geomorphic theory and empirical evidence from other regions, we anticipate climate‐driven changes to slope stability, watershed sediment yields, fluvial morphology, and aeolian sediment mobilization in the western U.S. We find evidence for recent climate‐driven changes to slope stability and increased aeolian dune and dust activity, whereas changes in sediment yields and fluvial morphology have been linked more commonly to non‐climatic drivers thus far. Detecting effects of climate change will require better understanding how landscape response scales with disturbance, how lag times and hysteresis operate within sedimentary systems, and how to distinguish the relative influence and feedbacks of superimposed disturbances. The ability to constrain geomorphic and sedimentary response to rapidly progressing climate change has widespread implications for human health and safety, infrastructure, water security, economics, and ecosystem resilience.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nev↗
USGS2021

Nonlinear shifts in infectious rust disease due to climate change

Range shifts of infectious plant disease are expected under climate change. As plant diseases move, emergent abiotic-biotic interactions are predicted to modify their distributions, leading to unexpected changes in disease risk. Evidence of these complex range shifts due to climate change, however, remains largely speculative. Here, we combine a long-term study of the infectious tree disease, white pine blister rust, with a six-year field assessment of drought-disease interactions in the southern Sierra Nevada. We find that climate change between 1996 and 2016 moved the climate optimum of the disease into higher elevations. The nonlinear climate change-disease relationship contributed to an estimated 5.5 (4.4–6.6) percentage points (p.p.) decline in disease prevalence in arid regions and an estimated 6.8 (5.8–7.9) p.p. increase in colder regions. Though climate change likely expanded the suitable area for blister rust by 777.9 (1.0–1392.9) km 2 into previously inhospitable regions, the combination of host-pathogen and drought-disease interactions contributed to a substantial decrease (32.79%) in mean disease prevalence between surveys. Specifically, declining alternate host abundance suppressed infection probabilities at high elevations, even as climatic conditions became more suitable. Further, drought-disease interactions varied in strength and direction across an aridity gradient—likely decreasing infection risk at low elevations while simultaneously increasing infection risk at high elevations. These results highlight the critical role of aridity in modifying host-pathogen-drought interactions. Variation in aridity across topographic gradients can strongly mediate plant disease range shifts in response to climate change.

California↗
USGS2020

Amphibian responses in the aftermath of extreme climate events

Climate change-induced extinctions are estimated to eliminate one in six known species by the end of the century. One major factor that will contribute to these extinctions is extreme climatic events. Here, we show the ecological impacts of recent record warm air temperatures and simultaneous peak drought conditions in California. From 2008–2016, the southern populations of a wide-ranging endemic amphibian (the California newt, Taricha torosa) showed a 20% reduction to mean body condition and significant losses to variation in body condition linked with extreme climate deviations. However, body condition in northern populations remained relatively unaffected during this period. Range-wide population estimates of change to body condition under future climate change scenarios within the next 50 years suggest that northern populations will mirror the loss of body condition recently observed in southern populations. This change is predicated on latter 21st century climate deviations that resemble recent conditions in Southern California. Thus, the ecological consequences of climate change have already occurred across the warmer, drier regions of Southern California, and our results suggest that predicted climate vulnerable regions in the more mesic northern range likely will not provide climate refuge for numerous amphibian communities.

California↗
USGS2004

Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California

The magnitude of future climate change depends substantially on the greenhouse gas emission pathways we choose. Here we explore the implications of the highest and lowest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions pathways for climate change and associated impacts in California. Based on climate projections from two state-of-the-art climate models with low and medium sensitivity (Parallel Climate Model and Hadley Centre Climate Model, version 3, respectively), we find that annual temperature increases nearly double from the lower B1 to the higher A1fi emissions scenario before 2100. Three of four simulations also show greater increases in summer temperatures as compared with winter. Extreme heat and the associated impacts on a range of temperature-sensitive sectors are substantially greater under the higher emissions scenario, with some interscenario differences apparent before midcentury. By the end of the century under the B1 scenario, heatwaves and extreme heat in Los Angeles quadruple in frequency while heat-related mortality increases two to three times; alpine/subalpine forests are reduced by 50-75%; and Sierra snowpack is reduced 30-70%. Under A1fi, heatwaves in Los Angeles are six to eight times more frequent, with heat-related excess mortality increasing five to seven times; alpine/subalpine forests are reduced by 75-90%; and snowpack declines 73-90%, with cascading impacts on runoff and streamflow that, combined with projected modest declines in winter precipitation, could fundamentally disrupt California's water rights system. Although interscenario differences in climate impacts and costs of adaptation emerge mainly in the second half of the century, they are strongly dependent on emissions from preceding decades.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗
USGS2020

Climate change vulnerability assessment for Pacific Lamprey in rivers of the Western United States

Pacific Lamprey (Entosphenus tridentatus) are a native anadromous species that, like salmon, historically returned to spawn in large numbers in watersheds along the west coast of the United States (U.S.). Lamprey play a vital role in river ecosystems and are one of the oldest vertebrates that have persisted over time likely influencing the evolution of many aquatic species. Pacific Lamprey have declined in abundance and are restricted in distribution throughout Washington, Oregon, Idaho and California. A key uncertainty influencing Pacific Lamprey status is the impact of climate change. We modified the NatureServe Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI) to accommodate climate predictions from the International Panel on Climate Change. Using downscaled information, we characterized changes in 15 rivers occupied by Pacific Lamprey in the western U.S. We evaluated this risk under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 for two time periods (mid-century 2040–2069 and end-century 2070–2099). The CCVI scores generally increased when going from RCP 4.5 to RCP 8.5 in three Global Climate Models for both mid-century and end-century, which our analyses forecasts degraded stream temperature and hydrologic conditions under increasing greenhouse gas emissions. The geographically assessed results suggest that climate change impacts to Pacific Lamprey vulnerability are magnified in highly altered rivers. If we continue to observe greenhouse gas emission levels associated with the RCP 8.5, Pacific Lamprey will be at greater risk to climate change impacts. In order to mitigate the risk from climate change toward the end of the century, additional actions will need to be prioritized to rapidly reduce the impact of these threats such as increasing flow, creating backwater habitat, restoring riparian vegetation and reducing stream disturbances. The findings revealed the patterns of vulnerability for Pacific Lamprey across their U.S. range are informative for prioritizing river restoration actions when paired with regional implementation plans.

California, Washington, Oregon, Idaho↗
USGS2016

Identifying alternate pathways for climate change to impact inland recreational fishers

Fisheries and human dimensions literature suggests that climate change influences inland recreational fishers in North America through three major pathways. The most widely recognized pathway suggests that climate change impacts habitat and fish populations (e.g., water temperature impacting fish survival) and cascades to impact fishers. Climate change also impacts recreational fishers by influencing environmental conditions that directly affect fishers (e.g., increased temperatures in northern climates resulting in extended open water fishing seasons and increased fishing effort). The final pathway occurs from climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts (e.g., refined energy policies result in higher fuel costs, making distant trips more expensive). To address limitations of past research (e.g., assessing climate change impacts for only one pathway at a time and not accounting for climate variability, extreme weather events, or heterogeneity among fishers), we encourage researchers to refocus their efforts to understand and document climate change impacts to inland fishers.

Fisheries↗
USGS2021

Projected changes of regional lake hydrologic characteristics in response to 21st century climate change

Inland lakes are socially and ecologically important components of many regional landscapes. Exploring lake responses to plausible future climate scenarios can provide important information needed to inform stakeholders of likely effects of hydrologic changes on these waterbodies in coming decades. To assess potential climate effects on lake hydrology, we combined a previously published spatially explicit, processed-based hydrologic modeling framework implemented over the lake-rich landscape of the Northern Highlands Lake District within the United States with an ensemble of climate change scenarios for the 2050s (2041–2070) and 2080s (2071–2100). Model results quantify the effects of climate change on water budgets and lake stage elevations for 3692 lakes and highlight the importance of landscape and hydrologic setting for the response of specific lake types to climate change. All future climate projections resulted in loss of ice cover and snowpack as well as increased evaporation, but variability in climate projections (warmer conditions, wet winters combined with wet or dry summers) interacted with lake characteristics and landscape position to produce variable lake hydrologic changes. Water levels for drainage lakes (lakes with substantial surface water inflows and outflows) showed nearly no change, whereas minimum water levels for seepage lakes (minimal surface water fluxes) decreased by an average of up to 2.64 m by the end of the 21st century. Our physically based modeling approach is parsimonious and computationally efficient and can be applied to other lake-rich regions to investigate interregional variability in lake hydrologic response to future climate scenarios.

Michigan, Wisconsin↗
USGS2019

Scenarios of climate adaptation potential on protected working lands from management of soils

Management of protected lands may enhance ecosystem services that conservation programs were designed to protect. Practices that build soil organic matter (SOM) on agricultural lands also increase soil water holding capacity, potentially reducing climatic water deficit (CWD), increasing actual evapotranspiration (AET) and increasing groundwater recharge (RCH). We developed nine spatially-explicit land use and conservation scenarios (2001 - 2100) in the LUCAS land use change model to address two questions for California working lands (cropland and rangeland): How does land use change limit opportunities to manage soils for hydrologic climate adaptation benefits? To what extent and where can soil management practices increase climate adaptation on protected working lands? Hydrologic benefits [∑(∆CWD, ∆AET, ∆RCH)] due to soil management were simulated in the Basin Characterization Model (a state-wide water balance model) for two Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 climate models. LUCAS simulated land conversion and new conservation easements with potential for maximum hydrologic benefits. Climate drove differences in lost potential for water benefits due to urbanization (33.9 - 87.6 m3 x 106) in 2050. Conflict between development pressure and potential hydrologic benefits occurred most in Santa Clara County in the San Francisco Bay Area and Shasta County in Northern Sacramento Valley. Hydrologic benefits on easements were similar in magnitude to losses from development. Water savings from management of California Land Conservation (a.k.a. Williamson) Act contract lands were an order of magnitude greater, totaling over 460 m3 x106 annually in a drier climate by 2050. Few counties provide most benefits because of soil properties, climate and land area protected. The increase in hydrologic benefits varies by agricultural practice and adoption rate, land use type and configuration, and terms of conservation agreements. The effectiveness of programs designed to improve climate adaptation at county to state scales will likely increase by taking this variability into consideration.

California↗
USGS2022

Grassy–herbaceous land moderates regional climate effects on honey bee colonies in the Northcentral US

The lack of seasonally sustained floral resources (i.e. pollen and nectar) is considered a primary global threat to pollinator health. However, the ability to predict the abundance of flowering resources for pollinators based upon climate, weather, and land cover is difficult due to insufficient monitoring over adequate spatial and temporal scales. Here we use spatiotemporally distributed honey bee hive scales that continuously measure hive weights as a standardized method to assess nectar intake. We analyze late summer colony weight gain as the response variable in a random forest regression model to determine the importance of climate, weather, and land cover on honey bee colony productivity. Our random forest model predicted resource acquisition by honey bee colonies with 71% accuracy, highlighting the detrimental effects of warm, wet regions in the Northcentral United States on nectar intake, as well as the detrimental effect of years with high growing degree day accumulation. Our model also predicted that grassy–herbaceous natural land had a positive effect on the summer nectar flow and that large areas of natural grassy–herbaceous land around apiaries can moderate the detrimental effects of warm, wet climates. These patterns characterize multi-scale ecological processes that constrain the quantity and quality of pollinator nutritional resources. That is, broad climate conditions constrain regional floral communities, while land use and weather act to further modify the quantity and quality of pollinator nutritional resources. Observing such broad-scale trends demonstrates the potential for utilizing hive scales to monitor the effects of climate change on landscape-level floral resources for pollinators. The interaction of climate and land use also present an opportunity to manage for climate-resilient landscapes that support pollinators through abundant floral resources under climate change.

Michigan, Minnesota, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylva↗
USGS2025

Integrating the resist–accept–direct framework into natural resource decision-making processes for climate adaptation

The resist–accept–direct (RAD) framework for climate adaptation is a useful tool, particularly when conservation practitioners know they need to address climate change but do not know where to start or when they struggle to implement conservation actions that are outside the status quo. Some conservation practitioners may view RAD as a decision process that will lead them through selecting climate adaptation actions to meet their objectives; however, RAD may be better suited for use with existing decision processes. RAD can improve adaptation planning processes by helping conservation practitioners examine a broader portfolio of climate adaptation actions. Choosing the actions that meet organizational objectives and long-term goals relies on a sound decision process through which to select RAD-generated actions to implement across space and time. The good news for conservation practitioners is that RAD can easily be integrated into the decision processes they are already using—that is, a new decision process for RAD is not necessary. We examined 6 commonly used decision frameworks in the context of RAD for climate adaptation: structured decision-making, adaptive management, conservation standards, climate-smart conservation, strategic habitat conservation, and scenario planning. Each decision framework can easily incorporate RAD methodologies to create climate adaptation menus and portfolios within existing structures, allowing conservation practitioners to continue to utilize existing frameworks for their valuable decision-making tools. Integrating the RAD framework can enhance them by explicitly considering future uncertainties and providing a menu of climate adaptation actions for navigating changing ecosystems.

Conservation Biology↗
USGS2021

Applying assessments of adaptive capacity to inform natural-resource management in a changing climate

Adaptive capacity (AC)—the ability of a species to cope with or accommodate climate change—is a critical determinant of species vulnerability. Using information on species’ AC in conservation planning is key to ensuring successful outcomes. We identified connections between a list of species’ attributes (e.g., traits, population metrics, and behaviors) that were recently proposed for assessing species’ AC and management actions that may enhance AC for species at risk of extinction. Management actions were identified based on evidence from the literature, a review of actions used in other climate adaptation guidance, and our collective experience in diverse fields of global-change ecology and climate adaptation. Selected management actions support the general AC pathways of persist in place or shift in space, in response to contemporary climate change. Some actions, such as genetic manipulations, can be used to directly alter the ability of species to cope with climate change, whereas other actions can indirectly enhance AC by addressing ecological or anthropogenic constraints on the expression of a species’ innate abilities to adapt. Ours is the first synthesis of potential management actions directly linked to AC. Focusing on AC attributes helps improve understanding of how and why aspects of climate are affecting organisms, as well as the mechanisms by which management interventions affect a species’ AC and climate change vulnerability. Adaptive-capacity-informed climate adaptation is needed to build connections among the causes of vulnerability, AC, and proposed management actions that can facilitate AC and reduce vulnerability in support of evolving conservation paradigms.

Conservation Biology↗