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At least 343 records · Page 19Linked to original sources

Conditional vulnerability of plant diversity to atmospheric nitrogen deposition across the United States

Atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition has been shown to decrease plant species richness along regional deposition gradients in Europe and in experimental manipulations. However, the general response of species richness to N deposition across different vegetation types, soil conditions, and climates remains largely unknown even though responses may be contingent on these environmental factors. We assessed the effect of N deposition on herbaceous richness for 15,136 forest, woodland, shrubland, and grassland sites across the continental United States, to address how edaphic and climatic conditions altered vulnerability to this stressor. In our dataset, with N deposition ranging from 1 to 19 kg N⋅ha−1⋅y−1, we found a unimodal relationship; richness increased at low deposition levels and decreased above 8.7 and 13.4 kg N⋅ha−1⋅y−1 in open and closed-canopy vegetation, respectively. N deposition exceeded critical loads for loss of plant species richness in 24% of 15,136 sites examined nationwide. There were negative relationships between species richness and N deposition in 36% of 44 community gradients. Vulnerability to N deposition was consistently higher in more acidic soils whereas the moderating roles of temperature and precipitation varied across scales. We demonstrate here that negative relationships between N deposition and species richness are common, albeit not universal, and that fine-scale processes can moderate vegetation responses to N deposition. Our results highlight the importance of contingent factors when estimating ecosystem vulnerability to N deposition and suggest that N deposition is affecting species richness in forested and nonforested systems across much of the continental United States.

PNAS↗

Variability in winter mass balance of Northern Hemisphere glaciers and relations with atmospheric circulation

An analysis of variability in the winter mass balance (WMB) of 22 glaciers in the Northern Hemisphere indicates two primary modes of variability that explain 46% of the variability among all glaciers. The first mode of variability characterizes WMB variability in Northern and Central Europe and the second mode primarily represents WMB variability in northwestern North America, but also is related to variability in WMB of one glacier in Europe and one in Central Asia. These two modes of WMB variability are explained by variations in mesoscale atmospheric circulation which are driving forces of variations in surface temperature and precipitation. The first mode is highly correlated with the Arctic Oscillation Index, whereas the second mode is highly correlated with the Southern Oscillation Index. In addition, the second mode of WMB variability is highly correlated with variability in global winter temperatures. This result suggests some connection between global temperature trends and WMB for some glaciers.

Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research↗

Seal body condition and atmospheric circulation patterns influence polar bear body condition, recruitment, and feeding ecology in the Chukchi Sea

Polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) are experiencing loss of sea ice habitats used to access their marine mammal prey. Simultaneously, ocean warming is changing ecosystems that support marine mammal populations. The interactive effects of sea ice and prey are not well understood yet may explain spatial‐temporal variation in the response of polar bears to sea ice loss. Here, we examined the potential combined effects of sea ice, seal body condition and atmospheric circulation patterns on the body condition, recruitment, diet, and feeding probability of 469 polar bears captured in the Chukchi Sea, 2008‐2017. The body condition of ringed seals ( Pusa hispida ), the primary prey of females and subadults, was related to dietary proportions of ringed seal, feeding probability, and the body condition of females and cubs. In contrast, adult males consumed more bearded seals ( Erignathus barbatus ) and exhibited better condition when bearded seal body condition was higher. The litter size, number of yearlings per adult female, and the condition of dependent young were higher following winters characterized by low Arctic Oscillation (AO) conditions, consistent with a growing number of studies. Body condition, recruitment, and feeding probability were either not associated or negatively associated with sea ice conditions, suggesting that, unlike some subpopulations, Chukchi Sea bears are not currently limited by sea ice availability. However, spring sea ice cover declined 2% per year during our study reaching levels not previously observed in the satellite record and resulting in the loss of polar bear hunting and seal pupping habitat. Our study suggests that the status of ice seal populations is likely an important factor that can either compound or mitigate the response of polar bears to sea ice loss over the short‐term. In the long‐term, neither polar bears nor their prey are likely robust to limitless loss of their sea ice habitat.

Alaska↗

Detectability of step trends in the rate of atmospheric deposition of sulfate

A method is presented to assist policy makers in determining the combination of number of sampling stations and number of years of sampling necessary to state with a given probability that a step reduction in atmospheric deposition rates of a given magnitude has occurred at a pre-specified time. This pre-specified time would typically be the time at which a sulfate emission control program took effect, and the given magnitude of reduction is some percentage change in deposition rate one might expect to occur as a result of the emission control. In order to determine this probability of detection, a stochastic model of sulfate deposition rates is developed, based on New York State bulk collection network data. The model considers the effect of variation in precipitation, seasonal variations, serial correlation, and site-to-site (cross) correlation. A nonparametric statistical test which is well suited to detection of step changes in such multi-site data sets is developed. It is related to the Mann-Whitney Rank-Sum test. The test is used in Monte Carlo simulations along with the stochastic model to derive statistical power functions. These power functions describe the probability of detecting (α=0.05) a step trend in deposition rate as a function of the size of the step-trend, record length before and after the step-trend, and the number of stations sampled. The results show that, for an area the size of New York State, very little power is gained by increasing the number of stations beyond about eight. The results allow policy makers to determine the tradeoff between the cost of monitoring and time required to detect a step-trend of a given magnitude with a given probability.

New York↗

Climate change, atmospheric rivers, and floods in California - a multimodel analysis of storm frequency and magnitude changes

Recent studies have documented the important role that “atmospheric rivers” (ARs) of concentrated near‐surface water vapor above the Pacific Ocean play in the storms and floods in California, Oregon, and Washington. By delivering large masses of warm, moist air (sometimes directly from the Tropics), ARs establish conditions for the kinds of high snowlines and copious orographic rainfall that have caused the largest historical storms. In many California rivers, essentially all major historical floods have been associated with AR storms. As an example of the kinds of storm changes that may influence future flood frequencies, the occurrence of such storms in historical observations and in a 7‐model ensemble of historical‐climate and projected future climate simulations is evaluated. Under an A2 greenhouse‐gas emissions scenario (with emissions accelerating throughout the 21st Century), average AR statistics do not change much in most climate models; however, extremes change notably. Years with many AR episodes increase, ARs with higher‐than‐historical water‐vapor transport rates increase, and AR storm‐temperatures increase. Furthermore, the peak season within which most ARs occur is commonly projected to lengthen, extending the flood‐hazard season. All of these tendencies could increase opportunities for both more frequent and more severe floods in California under projected climate changes.

California↗

Fish viruses: Buffers and methods for plaquing eight agents under normal atmosphere

A universal procedure was sought for plaque assay of eight fish viruses (bluegill myxovirus, channel catfish virus, eel virus, Egtved virus, infectious hematopoietic necrosis virus, infectious pancreatic necrosis virus, lymphocystis virus, and the agent of spring viremia of carp ( Rhabdovirus carpio ), in dish cultures of various fish cells. Eagle minimal essential medium with sodium bicarbonate-CO 2 buffer (Earle’s salt solution) was compared with minimal essential medium buffered principally with tris (hydroxymethyl)aminomethane or N -2-hydroxyethylpiperazine-N′-2′-ethanesulfonic acid at a pH or in the range of 7.6 to 8.0 depending upon temperature. Five fish cell lines collectively capable of replicating all fish viruses thus far isolated were tested and quantitatively found to grow comparably well in the three media. Two-phase (gel-liquid) media incorporating the various buffer systems allowed plaquing at 15 to 33 C either in partial pressures of CO 2 or in normal atmosphere, but greater efficiency and sensitivity were obtained with the organic buffers, and, overall, the best results were obtained with tris(hydroxymethyl)aminomethane. Epizootiological data, specific fish cell line response, and plaque morphology permit presumptive identification of most of the agents. At proper pH, use of organic buffers obviates the need for CO 2 incubators.

Applied Microbiology↗

Local and regional factors affecting atmospheric mercury speciation at a remote location

Atmospheric concentrations of elemental (Hg0), reactive gaseous (RGM), and particulate (PHg) mercury were measured at two remote sites in the midwestern United States. Concurrent measurements of Hg0, PHg, and RGM obtained at Devil's Lake and Mt. Horeb, located approximately 65 km apart, showed that Hg0 and PHg concentrations were affected by regional, as well as local sources, while RGM was mainly impacted by local sources. Plumes reaching the Devil's Lake site from a nearby coal-fired power plant significantly impacted SO2 and RGM concentrations at Devil's Lake, but had little impact on Hg0. Our findings suggest that traditional modeling approaches to assess sources of mercury deposited that utilize source emissions and large-scale grids may not be sufficient to predict mercury deposition at sensitive locations due to the importance of small-scale sources and processes. We suggest the use of a receptor-based monitoring to better understand mercury source-receptor relationships.

Wisconsin↗

Diagnosis of an intense atmospheric river impacting the pacific northwest: Storm summary and offshore vertical structure observed with COSMIC satellite retrievals

This study uses the new satellite-based Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) mission to retrieve tropospheric profiles of temperature and moisture over the data-sparse eastern Pacific Ocean. The COSMIC retrievals, which employ a global positioning system radio occultation technique combined with "first-guess" information from numerical weather prediction model analyses, are evaluated through the diagnosis of an intense atmospheric river (AR; i.e., a narrow plume of strong water vapor flux) that devastated the Pacific Northwest with flooding rains in early November 2006. A detailed analysis of this AR is presented first using conventional datasets and highlights the fact that ARs are critical contributors to West Coast extreme precipitation and flooding events. Then, the COSMIC evaluation is provided. Offshore composite COSMIC soundings north of, within, and south of this AR exhibited vertical structures that are meteorologically consistent with satellite imagery and global reanalysis fields of this case and with earlier composite dropsonde results from other landfalling ARs. Also, a curtain of 12 offshore COSMIC soundings through the AR yielded cross-sectional thermodynamic and moisture structures that were similarly consistent, including details comparable to earlier aircraft-based dropsonde analyses. The results show that the new COSMIC retrievals, which are global (currently yielding ???2000 soundings per day), provide high-resolution vertical-profile information beyond that found in the numerical model first-guess fields and can help monitor key lower-tropospheric mesoscale phenomena in data-sparse regions. Hence, COSMIC will likely support a wide array of applications, from physical process studies to data assimilation, numerical weather prediction, and climate research. ?? 2008 American Meteorological Society.

Monthly Weather Review↗

Defining “atmospheric river”: How the Glossary of Meteorology helped resolve a debate

Since the term “atmospheric river” (AR) first appeared in modern scientific literature in the early 1990s, it has generated debate about the meaning of the concept. A common popular definition is something along the lines of a “river in the sky,” albeit as a river of water vapor rather than of liquid. This general concept has come into regular use in the western United States and in some other regions affected by ARs, partly due to its use by media, and due to the intuitive nature of the concept. However, over the last 20 years there have been varying perspectives on the term in the technical community. These perspectives range roughly from considering it duplicative of preexisting concepts, such as the warm conveyor belt (WCB), to arguments that the analogy to terrestrial rivers is inappropriate, to being a primary topic of focused research, applications, and usage by water managers.

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society↗

A scale to characterize the strength and impacts of atmospheric rivers

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) play vital roles in the western United States and related regions globally, not only producing heavy precipitation and flooding, but also providing beneficial water supply. This paper introduces a scale for the intensity and impacts of ARs. Its utility may be greatest where ARs are the most impactful storm type and hurricanes, nor’easters, and tornadoes are nearly nonexistent. Two parameters dominate the hydrologic outcomes and impacts of ARs: vertically integrated water vapor transport (IVT) and AR duration [i.e., the duration of at least minimal AR conditions (IVT ≥ 250 kg m –1 s –1 )]. The scale uses an observed or predicted time series of IVT at a given geographic location and is based on the maximum IVT and AR duration at that point during an AR event. AR categories 1–5 are defined by thresholds for maximum IVT (3-h average) of 250, 500, 750, 1,000, and 1,250 kg m –1 s –1 , and by IVT exceeding 250 kg m –1 s –1 continuously for 24–48 h. If the AR event duration is less than 24 h, it is downgraded by one category. If it is longer than 48 h, it is upgraded one category. The scale recognizes that weak ARs are often mostly beneficial because they can enhance water supply and snowpack, while stronger ARs can become mostly hazardous, for example, if they strike an area with antecedent conditions that enhance vulnerability, such as burn scars or wet conditions. Extended durations can enhance impacts. Short durations can mitigate impacts.

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society↗

Observed impacts of duration and seasonality of atmospheric-river landfalls on soil moisture and runoff in coastal northern California

This study is motivated by diverse needs for better forecasts of extreme precipitation and floods. It is enabled by unique hourly observations collected over six years near California’s Russian River and by recent advances in the science of atmospheric rivers (ARs). This study fills key gaps limiting the prediction of ARs and, especially, their impacts by quantifying the duration of AR conditions and the role of duration in modulating hydrometeorological impacts. Precursor soil moisture conditions and their relationship to streamflow are also shown. On the basis of 91 well-observed events during 2004-10, the study shows that the passage of ARs over a coastal site lasted 20 h on average and that 12% of the AR events exceeded 30 h. Differences in storm-total water vapor transport directed up the mountain slope contribute 74% of the variance in storm-total rainfall across the events and 61% of the variance in storm-total runoff volume. ARs with double the composite mean duration produced nearly 6 times greater peak streamflow and more than 7 times the storm-total runoff volume. When precursor soil moisture was less than 20%, even heavy rainfall did not lead to significant streamflow. Predicting which AR events are likely to produce extreme impacts on precipitation and runoff requires accurate prediction of AR duration at landfall and observations of precursor soil moisture conditions.

California↗

Atmospheric rivers as drought busters on the U.S. west coast

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) have, in recent years, been recognized as the cause of the large majority of major floods in rivers all along the U.S. West Coast and as the source of 30%–50% of all precipitation in the same region. The present study surveys the frequency with which ARs have played a critical role as a common cause of the end of droughts on the West Coast. This question was based on the observation that, in most cases, droughts end abruptly as a result of the arrival of an especially wet month or, more exactly, a few very large storms. This observation is documented using both Palmer Drought Severity Index and 6-month Standardized Precipitation Index measures of drought occurrence for climate divisions across the conterminous United States from 1895 to 2010. When the individual storm sequences that contributed most to the wet months that broke historical West Coast droughts from 1950 to 2010 were evaluated, 33%–74% of droughts were broken by the arrival of landfalling AR storms. In the Pacific Northwest, 60%–74% of all persistent drought endings have been brought about by the arrival of AR storms. In California, about 33%–40% of all persistent drought endings have been brought about by landfalling AR storms, with more localized low pressure systems responsible for many of the remaining drought breaks.

California;Oregon;Washington↗

Wet antecedent soil moisture increases atmospheric river streamflow magnitudes non-linearly

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) drive most riverine floods on the United States (U.S.) West Coast. However, estimating flood risk based solely on AR intensity and duration is challenging because precipitation phase, antecedent conditions, and physical watershed characteristics (e.g., slope and soil depth) can influence the magnitude of floods. Here, we analyze how antecedent soil moisture (ASM) conditions contribute to variability in streamflow during AR events and how that changes across climatic regimes and physiography in 122 U.S. West Coast watersheds. We identify a robust non-linear relationship between streamflow and ASM during ARs in 89% of watersheds. The inflection point in this relationship represents a watershed-specific critical ASM threshold, above which event maximum streamflow is, on average, two to four and a half times larger. Wet ASM conditions amplify the hydrologic impacts of more frequent but weaker, lower moisture transport AR events, while dry ASM conditions attenuate the hydrologic impacts that stronger, higher moisture transport AR events could otherwise cause. Our research shows that watersheds prone to ASM-amplified streamflows have higher evaporation ratios, lower cold-season precipitation, lower snow-to-rain ratios, and shallower, clay-rich soils. Higher evaporation and lower precipitation lead to greater ASM variability during the cold season, increasing streamflow during wet periods and buffering streamflow during dry periods. Lower snow fraction and shallower soils limit the antecedent water storage capacity of a watershed, contributing to greater sensitivity of streamflow peaks to ASM variability. Incorporating ASM thresholds into hydrologic models in these regions prone to AR-amplified streamflow could improve forecasts and decrease uncertainty.

California, Nevada, Oregon, Washington↗

Atmospheric propagation modeling indicates homing pigeons use loft-specific infrasonic ‘map’ cues

Results from an acoustic ray-tracing program using daily meteorological profiles are presented to explain ‘release-site biases’ for homing pigeons at three experimental sites in upstate New York where W. T. Keeton and his co-workers at Cornell University conducted extensive releases between 1968 and 1987 in their investigations of the avian navigational ‘map’. The sites are the Jersey Hill and Castor Hill fire towers, and another near Weedsport, where control pigeons from the Cornell loft vanished in random directions, in directions consistently >50 deg clockwise and in directions ∼15 deg clockwise from the homeward bearing, respectively. Because Cornell pigeons were disoriented at Jersey Hill whereas birds from other lofts were not, it is inferred that Jersey Hill lies within an acoustic ‘shadow’ zone relative to infrasonic signals originating from the Cornell loft’s vicinity. Such signals could arise from ground-to-air coupling of near-continuous microseisms, or from scattering of direct microbaroms off terrain features, both of which are initially generated by wave–wave interactions in the deep ocean. HARPA runs show that little or no infrasound from the loft area arrived at Jersey Hill on days when Cornell pigeons were disoriented there, and that homeward infrasonic signals could have arrived at all three sites from directions consistent with pigeon departure bearings, especially on days when these bearings were unusual. The general stability of release-site biases might be due to influences of terrain on transmission of the homeward signals under prevailing weather patterns, whereas short-term changes in biases might be caused by rapid shifts in atmospheric conditions.

New York↗

Hourly analyses of the large storms and atmospheric rivers that provide most of California's precipitation in only 10 to 100 hours per year

California is regularly impacted by floods and droughts, primarily as a result of too many or too few atmospheric rivers (ARs). This study analyzes a two-decade-long hourly precipitation dataset from 176 California weather stations and a 3-hourly AR chronology to report variations in rainfall events across California and their association with ARs. On average, 10-40 and 60-120 hours of rainfall in southern and northern California, respectively, are responsible for more than half of annual rainfall accumulations. Approximately 10-30% of annual precipitation at locations across the state is from only one large storm. On average, northern California receives 25-45 rainfall events annually (40-50% of which are AR-related). These events typically have longer durations and higher event-precipitation totals than those in southern California. Northern California also receives more AR landfalls with longer durations and stronger Integrated Vapor Transport (IVT). On average, ARs contribute 79%, 76%, and 68% of extreme-rainfall accumulations (i.e., top 5% events annually) in the north coast, northern Sierra, and Transverse Ranges of southern California, respectively. The San Francisco Bay Area terrain gap in the California Coast Range allows more AR water vapor to reach inland over the Delta and Sacramento Valley, and thus, influences precipitation in the Delta’s catchment. This is particularly important for extreme precipitation in the northern Sierra Nevada, including river basins above Oroville Dam and Shasta Dam. This study highlights differences between rainfall and AR characteristics in coastal versus inland northern California, differences that largely determine the regional geography of flood risks and water-reliability. These analyses support water resource, flood, levee, wetland, and ecosystem management within the catchment of the San Francisco estuary system by describing regional characteristics of ARs and their influence on rainfall on an hourly timescale.

California↗

Experimental drought in a tropical rain forest increases soil carbon dioxide losses to the atmosphere

Climate models predict precipitation changes for much of the humid tropics, yet few studies have investigated the potential consequences of drought on soil carbon (C) cycling in this important biome. In wet tropical forests, drought could stimulate soil respiration via overall reductions in soil anoxia, but previous research suggests that litter decomposition is positively correlated with high rainfall fluxes that move large quantities of dissolved organic matter (DOM) from the litter layer to the soil surface. Thus, reduced rainfall could also limit C delivery to the soil surface, reducing respiration rates. We conducted a throughfall manipulation experiment to investigate how 25% and 50% reductions in rainfall altered both C movement into soils and the effects of those DOM fluxes on soil respiration rates. In response to the experimental drought, soil respiration rates increased in both the −25% and −50% treatments. Throughfall fluxes were reduced by 26% and 55% in the −25% and −50% treatments, respectively. However, total DOM fluxes leached from the litter did not vary between treatments, because the concentrations of leached DOM reaching the soil surface increased in response to the simulated drought. Annual DOM concentrations averaged 7.7 ± 0.8, 11.2 ± 0.9, and 15.8 ± 1.2 mg C/L in the control, −25%, and −50% plots, respectively, and DOM concentrations were positively correlated with soil respiration rates. A laboratory incubation experiment confirmed the potential importance of DOM concentration on soil respiration rates, suggesting that this mechanism could contribute to the increase in CO 2 fluxes observed in the reduced rainfall plots. Across all plots, the data suggested that soil CO 2 fluxes were partially regulated by the magnitude and concentration of soluble C delivered to the soil, but also by soil moisture and soil oxygen availability. Together, our data suggest that declines in precipitation in tropical rain forests could drive higher CO 2 fluxes to the atmosphere both via increased soil O 2 availability and through responses to elevated DOM concentrations.

Golfo Dulce Forest Reserve↗

Effects of earthquakes, trains tides, winds, and atmospheric pressure changes on water in the geologic formations of southern Florida

Determination of such fundamental hydrologic factors as the coefficients of permeability, transmissibility, and storage; areas of recharge and discharge; direction of ground-water movement; the safe yield; and other pertinent, related factors are based in part upon water-level measurements in wells. But these water-level readings, if not properly understood or weighted, may be entirely misleading. This is because water levels are neither stationary nor steadily rising (with recharge) or falling (with discharge). Water levels fluctuate as a result of several factors other than those of changes in recharge or discharge, chief among which are: (1) tides; (2) atmospheric pressure; (3) winds; (4) earthquakes; and (5) passing trains. Characteristically, artesian aquifers respond to these forces in a manner different from that of nonartesian aquifers, but in some places local geologic conditions in a nonartesian aquifer may cause water-level fluctuations ordinarily found only in artesian wells. Among the unusual features observed is a 4.5-foot fluctuation of water level in a Miami well caused by earthquake waves originating 750 miles away in the Atlantic Ocean, off the coast of the Dominican Republic. Quakes from all over the world are responsible for water-level fluctuations in this and other wells in the Miami area.

Florida↗