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USGS2018

Trends and habitat associations of waterbirds using the South Bay Salt Pond Restoration Project, San Francisco Bay, California

Executive Summary The aim of the South Bay Salt Pond Restoration Project (hereinafter “Project”) is to restore 50–90 percent of former salt evaporation ponds to tidal marsh in San Francisco Bay (SFB). However, hundreds of thousands of waterbirds use these ponds over winter and during fall and spring migration. To ensure that existing waterbird populations are supported while tidal marsh is restored in the Project area, managers plan to enhance the habitat suitability of ponds by adding islands and berms to change pond topography, manipulating water salinity and depth, and selecting appropriate ponds to maintain for birds. To help inform these actions, we used 13 years of monthly (October–April) bird abundance data from Project ponds to (1) assess trends in waterbird abundance since the inception of the Project, and (2) evaluate which pond habitat characteristics were associated with highest abundances of different avian guilds and species. For comparison, we also evaluated waterbird abundance trends in active salt production ponds using 10 years of monthly survey data. We assessed bird guild and species abundance trends through time, and created separate trend curves for Project and salt production ponds using data from every pond that was counted in a year. We divided abundance data into three seasons—fall (October–November), winter (December–February), and spring (March–April). We used the resulting curves to assess which periods had the highest bird abundance and to identify increasing or decreasing trends for each guild and species.

California↗
USGS2021

Range-wide greater sage-grouse hierarchical monitoring framework—Implications for defining population boundaries, trend estimation, and a targeted annual warning system

Incorporating spatial and temporal scales into greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) population monitoring strategies is challenging and rarely implemented. Sage-grouse populations experience fluctuations in abundance that lead to temporal oscillations, making trend estimation difficult. Accounting for stochasticity is critical to reliably estimate population trends and investigate variation related to deterministic factors on the landscape, which are amenable to management action. Here, we describe a novel, range-wide hierarchical monitoring framework for sage-grouse centered on four objectives: (1) create a standardized database of lek counts, (2) develop spatial population structures by clustering leks, (3) estimate spatial trends at different temporal extents based on abundance nadirs (troughs), and (4) develop a targeted annual warning system to help inform management decisions. Using automated and repeatable methods (software), we compiled a lek database (as of 2019) that contained 262,744 counts and 8,421 unique lek locations from disparate state data. The hierarchical population units (clusters) included 13 nested levels, identifying biologically relevant units and population structure that minimized inter-cluster sage-grouse movements. With these products, we identified spatiotemporal variation in trends in population abundance using Bayesian state-space models. We estimated 37.0, 65.2, and 80.7-percent declines in abundance range-wide during short (17 years), medium (33 years), and long (53 years) temporal scales, respectively. However, some areas exhibited evidence of increasing trends in abundance in recent decades. Models predicted 12.3, 19.2, and 29.6 percent of populations (defined as clusters of neighboring leks) consisted of over 50-percent probability of extirpation at 19, 38, and 56-year projections from 2019, respectively, based on averaged annual rate of change in apparent abundance across two, four, and six oscillations (average period of oscillation is 9.4 years). At the lek level, models predicted 45.7, 60.1, and 78.0 percent of leks with over 50-percent extirpation probabilities over the same time periods, respectively, mostly located on the periphery of the species’ range. The targeted annual warning system automates annual identification of local populations exhibiting asynchronous decline relative to regional population patterns using simulated management actions and an optimization algorithm for evaluating range-wide stabilization of population abundance. In 2019, approximately 3.2 percent of leks and 2.0 percent of populations were identified by the targeted annual warning system for management intervention range-wide.

California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Nort↗
USGS2005

Trends in streamflow, sedimentation, and sediment chemistry for the Wolf River, Menominee Indian Reservation, Wisconsin, 1850-1999

Historical trends in streamflow, sedimentation, and sediment chemistry of the Wolf River were examined for a 6-mile reach that flows through the southern part of the Menominee Indian Reservation and the northern part of Shawano County, Wis. Trends were examined in the context of effects from dams, climate, and land-cover change. Annual flood peaks and mean monthly flow for the Wolf River were examined for 1907-96 and compared to mean annual and mean monthly precipitation. Analysis of trends in sedimentation (from before about 1850 through 1999) involved collection of cores and elevation data along nine valley transects spanning the Wolf River channel, flood plain, and backwater and impounded areas; radioisotope analyses of impounded sediment cores; and analysis of General Land Office Survey Notes (1853-91). Trends in sediment chemistry were examined by analyzing samples from an impoundment core for minor and trace elements. Annual flood peaks for the Wolf River decreased during 1907-49 but increased during 1950-96, most likely reflecting general changes in upper-atmospheric circulation patterns from more zonal before 1950 to more meridional after 1950. The decrease in flood peaks during 1907-49 may also, in part, be due to forest regrowth. Mean monthly streamflow during 1912-96 increased for the months of February and March but decreased for June and July, suggesting that spring snowmelt occurs earlier in the season than it did in the past. Decreases in early summer flows may be a reflection earlier spring snowmelt and large rainstorms in early spring rather than early summer. These trends also may reflect upper-atmospheric circulation patterns. The Balsam Row Dam impoundment contains up to 10 feet of organic-rich silty clay and has lost much of its storage capacity. Fine sediment has accumulated for 1.8 miles upstream from the Balsam Row Dam. Historical average linear and mass sedimentation rates in the Balsam Row impoundment were 0.09 feet per year and 1.15 pounds per square foot per year for 1927-62 and 0.10 feet per year and 1.04 pounds per square foot per year for 1963-99. Sedimentation in the impoundment was episodic and was associated with large floods, especially the flood-related failure of the Keshena Falls Dam in 1972 and a large flood in 1973. Sand deposition is common in the Wolf River upstream from the impounded reach for 2.5 miles and is caused by the base-level increase associated with the Balsam Row Dam. Some sand deposition also may have been associated with logging and log drives in the late 1800s and the failure of the Keshena Falls Dam. In the upstream 1.5-mile part of the studied reach, the substrate is mainly rocky; however, about 2,000 feet downstream from Keshena Falls, the channel has narrowed and incised since the 1890s, likely related to human alterations associated with logging, log drives, and (or) changes in hydraulics and sediment characteristics associated with completion of the Keshena Falls Dam and head race in 1908. Minor- and trace-element concentrations in sediment from Balsam Row impoundment and other depositional areas along the Wolf River generally reflect background conditions as affected by watershed geology and historical inputs from regional and local atmospheric deposition.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2005

Evaluating regional trends in ground-water nitrate concentrations of the Columbia Basin ground water management area, Washington

Trends in nitrate concentrations in water from 474 wells in 17 subregions in the Columbia Basin Ground Water Management Area (GWMA) in three counties in eastern Washington were evaluated using a variety of statistical techniques, including the Friedman test and the Kendall test. The Kendall test was modified from its typical 'seasonal' version into a 'regional' version by using well locations in place of seasons. No statistically significant trends in nitrate concentrations were identified in samples from wells in the GWMA, the three counties, or the 17 subregions from 1998 to 2002 when all data were included in the analysis. For wells in which nitrate concentrations were greater than 10 milligrams per liter (mg/L), however, a significant downward trend of -0.4 mg/L per year was observed between 1998 and 2002 for the GWMA as a whole, as well as for Adams County (-0.35 mg/L per year) and for Franklin County (-0.46 mg/L per year). Trend analysis for a smaller but longer-term 51-well dataset in Franklin County found a statistically significant upward trend in nitrate concentrations of 0.1 mg/L per year between 1986 and 2003. The largest increase of nitrate concentrations occurred between 1986 and 1991. No statistically significant differences were observed in this dataset between 1998 and 2003 indicating that the increase in nitrate concentrations has leveled off.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2008

Water quality in the Arthur R. Marshall Loxahatchee National Wildlife Refuge — Trends and spatial characteristics of selected constituents, 1974-2004

Water quality in the interior marsh of the Arthur R. Marshall Loxahatchee National Wildlife Refuge is characterized by low concentrations of major ions, principally sodium and chloride, and is affected primarily by natural seasonal processes, such as evapotranspiration, rainfall, and biological activity. During the dry season, evapotranspiration exceeds precipitation, and specific conductance and conservative ion concentrations at marsh background sites typically increase by 40-70 percent between the end of the rainy season in September and the end of the dry season in May. Water enters the Refuge mainly from rainfall and perimeter canals. Water is pumped into the perimeter canals from large pumping stations, such as S-5A and S-6. In recent years, much of the water pumped into the Refuge passes through Stormwater Treatment Areas (STAs) before being released into the perimeter canals that surround the Refuge. Since 2001, water at S-6 has been diverted south toward STA-2, away from the Refuge perimeter canals. Water from S-5A and S-6 flows through agricultural lands with intense agricultural activity and typically contains relatively high concentrations of major ions, nutrients, and pesticides. Specific conductance, major-ion concentrations, and nutrient concentrations are an order of magnitude higher at S-5A and S-6 canal sites than at interior marsh sites. Water quality in the marsh bordering the canals can be affected substantially by the canal water, and these effects can extend several miles or more into the marsh depending on location in the Refuge and on the water level in the canals. As canal water flows into the marsh, processes such as uptake by periphyton and rooted vegetation and settling of particulate matter reduce the concentrations of nutrients to a greater extent than conservative ions such as chloride. Long- and short-term trends for specific conductance, chloride ion, sulfate ion, total phosphorus, and total nitrogen at five sites were evaluated primarily using an uncensored seasonal Kendall test with a water-level adjustment to reduce the effects of long wet or dry periods. Significant long-term trends (1974-2003) for specific conductance, chloride, total phosphorus, and total nitrogen at canal sites S-5A and S-6 were generally downward. Of the five sites, S-5A had the most pronounced decline for specific conductance at about -340 microsiemens per centimeter (?S/cm), followed by S-6 with a decline of about -280 ?S/cm. The two internal marsh sites, LOX8 and LOX13, had significant long-term trends in specific conductance of about +37 and -36 ?S/cm, respectively. Long-term trends for other constituents at the two internal marsh sites were generally small in magnitude or not measurable between 1978 and 2003. Marsh site LOX15 near the Hillsboro Canal showed no long-term trends, although specific conductance and sulfate concentration increased about 560 ?S/cm and 30 milligrams per liter, respectively, from 1998 to 2002. Site LOX15 is influenced strongly by intrusions of canal water, and increases in specific conductance and sulfate at this site coincided with increased canal-water inflows from STA-1W between 2001 and 2003. Median concentrations at LOX13 and S-5A were used to represent background and canal concentrations, respectively. Based on these values, the median chloride concentration at LOX15 indicates that the water is typically about 31 percent canal water and 69 percent ?natural? background water. Using median sulfate concentrations, similarly to chloride, the fraction of water at LOX15 was estimated to be 17 percent from canals and 83 percent from ?natural? background water. This finding suggests that in the low sulfate environment of the Refuge, sulfate is not conservative and only about half of the sulfate from canal water typically reaches LOX15; the rest presumably is removed by marsh plants, algae, and bottom sediments. Concentrations of pesticides and other organic compounds were measured

Florida↗
USGS2008

Water-Quality Conditions and Constituent Loads, Water Years 1996-2002, and Water-Quality Trends, Water Years 1983-2002, in the Scituate Reservoir Drainage Area, Rhode Island

The Scituate Reservoir is the primary source of drinking water for more than 60 percent of the population of Rhode Island. Water-quality data and streamflow data collected at 37 surface-water monitoring stations in the Scituate Reservoir drainage area, Rhode Island, from October 1, 1995 through September 30, 2002, (water years (WY) 1996-2002) were analyzed to determine water-quality conditions and constituent loads in the drainage area. Trends in water quality, including physical properties and concentrations of constituents, were investigated for the same period and for a longer period from October 1, 1982 through September 30, 2002 (WY 1983-2002). Water samples were collected and analyzed by Providence Water Supply Board, the agency that manages the Scituate Reservoir. Streamflow data were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey. Median values and other summary statistics were calculated for WY 1996-2002 for all 37 monitoring stations for pH, color, turbidity, alkalinity, chloride, nitrite, nitrate, total coliform bacteria, Escherichia coli (E. coli) bacteria, orthophosphate, iron, and manganese. Instantaneous loads and yields (loads per unit area) of total coliform and E. coli bacteria (indicator bacteria), chloride, nitrite, nitrate, orthophosphate, iron, and manganese were calculated for all sampling dates during WY 1996-2002 for the 23 stations with streamflow data. Values of physical properties and concentrations of constituents were compared to State and Federal water-quality standards and guidelines, and were related to streamflow, land-use characteristics, and road density. Tributary stream water in the Scituate Reservoir drainage area for WY 1996-2002 was slightly acidic (median pH of all stations equal to 6.1) and contained low concentrations of chloride (median 13 milligrams per liter (mg/L)), nitrate (median 0.04 mg/L as N), and orthophosphate (median 0.04 mg/L as P). Turbidity and alkalinity values also were low with median values of 0.62 nephelometric turbidity units and 4.8 mg/L as calcium carbonate, respectively. Indicator bacteria were detected in samples from all stations, but median concentrations were low, 23 and 9 colony-forming units per 100 mL for total coliform and E. coli bacteria, respectively. Median values of several physical properties and median concentrations of several constituents that can be related to human activities correlated positively with the percentages of developed land and correlated negatively with the percentages of forest cover in the drainage areas of the monitoring stations. Median concentrations of chloride also correlated positively with the density of roads in the drainage areas of monitoring stations, likely reflecting the effects of road-salt applications. Median values of color correlated positively with the percentages of wetlands in the drainage areas of monitoring stations, reflecting the natural sources of color in tributary stream waters. Negative correlations of turbidity, indicator bacteria, and chloride with streamflow likely reflect seasonal patterns, in which higher values and concentrations of these properties and constituents occur during low-flow conditions at the ends of water years. Similar seasonal patterns were observed for pH, alkalinity, and color. Loads and yields of chloride, nitrate, orthophosphate, and bacteria varied among monitoring stations in the Scituate Reservoir drainage area. Loads generally were higher at stations with larger drainage areas and at stations in the eastern, more developed parts of the Scituate Reservoir drainage area. Yields generally were higher at stations in the eastern parts of the drainage area. Upward trends in pH were identified for nearly half the monitoring stations and may reflect regional reductions in acid precipitation. Upward and downward trends were identified in chloride concentrations at various stations; upward trends may reflect the effects of increasing development, whereas strong downward trends at

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2012

Flow-adjusted trends in dissolved selenium load and concentration in the Gunnison and Colorado Rivers near Grand Junction, Colorado, water years 1986--2008

As a result of elevated selenium concentrations, many western Colorado rivers and streams are on the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 2010 Colorado 303(d) list, including the main stem of the Colorado River from the Gunnison River confluence to the Utah border. Selenium is a trace metal that bioaccumulates in aquatic food chains and can cause reproductive failure, deformities, and other adverse impacts in birds and fish, including several threatened and endangered fish species. Salinity in the upper Colorado River has been the focus of source-control efforts for many years. Although salinity loads and concentrations have been previously characterized at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow-gaging stations at the Gunnison River near Grand Junction, Colo., and at the Colorado River near the Colorado-Utah State line, trends in selenium load and concentration at these two stations have not been studied. The USGS, in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation and the Colorado River Water Conservation District, evaluated dissolved selenium (herein referred to as "selenium") load and concentration trends at these two sites to inform decision makers on the status and trends of selenium. This report presents results of the evaluation of trends in selenium load and concentration for two USGS streamflow-gaging stations: the Gunnison River near Grand Junction, Colo. ("Gunnison River site"), USGS site 09152500, and the Colorado River near Colorado-Utah State line ("Colorado River site"), USGS site 09163500. Flow-adjusted selenium loads were estimated for the beginning water year (WY) of the study, 1986, and the ending WY of the study, 2008. The difference between flow-adjusted selenium loads for WY 1986 and WY 2008 was selected as the method of analysis because flow adjustment removes the natural variations in load caused by changes in mean-daily streamflow, emphasizing human-caused changes in selenium load and concentration. Overall changes in human-caused effects in selenium loads and concentrations during the period of study are of primary interest to the cooperators. Selenium loads for each of the 2 water years were calculated by using normalized mean-daily streamflow, measured selenium concentration, standard linear regression techniques, and data previously collected at the two study sites. Mean-daily streamflow was normalized for each site by averaging the daily streamflow for each day of the year over the 23-year period of record. Thus, for the beginning and ending water years, estimations could be made of loads that would have occurred without the effect of year-to-year streamflow variation. The loads thus calculated are illustrative of the change in loads between water years 1986 and 2008, and are not the actual loads that occurred in those 2 water years. The estimated 50th and 85th percentile selenium concentrations associated with the selenium loads were also calculated for WY 1986 and WY 2008 at each site. Time-trends in selenium concentration at the two sites were charted by using regression techniques for partial residuals for the entire study period (WY 1986 through WY 2008). Annual selenium load for the Gunnison River site was estimated to be 23,196 pounds for WY 1986 and 16,560 pounds for WY 2008, a 28.6 percent decrease. Lower and upper 95-percent confidence levels for WY 1986 annual load were 22,360 and 24,032 pounds. Lower and upper 95-percent confidence levels for WY 2008 annual load were 15,724 and 17,396 pounds. Estimated 50th percentile daily selenium concentrations decreased from 6.41 to 4.57 micrograms/liter from WY 1986 to WY 2008, whereas estimated 85th percentile daily selenium concentrations decreased from 7.21 to 5.13 micrograms/liter from WY 1986 to WY 2008. Annual selenium load for the Colorado River site was estimated to be 56,587 pounds for WY 1986 and 34,344 pounds for WY 2008, a 39.3 percent decrease. Lower and upper 95-percent confidence levels for WY 1986 annual load were 53,785 and 59,390 pounds. Lower and upper 95-percent confidence levels for WY 2008 annual load were 31,542 and 37,147 pounds. Estimated 50th percentile daily selenium concentrations decreased from 6.44 to 3.86 micrograms/liter from WY 1986 to WY 2008, whereas estimated 85th percentile daily selenium concentrations decreased from 7.94 to 4.72 micrograms/liter from WY 1986 to WY 2008.

Colorado↗
USGS2013

Water-quality characteristics, trends, and nutrient and sediment loads of streams in the Treyburn development area, North Carolina, 1988–2009

Streamflow and water-quality data, including concentrations of nutrients, metals, and pesticides, were collected from October 1988 through September 2009 at six sites in the Treyburn development study area. A review of water-quality data for streams in and near a 5,400-acre planned, mixed-use development in the Falls Lake watershed in the upper Neuse River Basin of North Carolina indicated only small-scale changes in water quality since the previous assessment of data collected from 1988 to 1998. Loads and yields were estimated for sediment and nutrients, and temporal trends were assessed for specific conductance, pH, and concentrations of dissolved oxygen, suspended sediment, and nutrients. Water-quality conditions for the Little River tributary and Mountain Creek may reflect development within these basins. The nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations at the Treyburn sites are low compared to sites nationally. The herbicides atrazine, metolachlor, prometon, and simazine were detected frequently at Mountain Creek and Little River tributary but concentrations are low compared to sites nationally. Little River tributary had the lowest median suspended-sediment yield over the 1988–2009 study period, whereas Flat River tributary had the largest median yield. The yields estimated for suspended sediment and nutrients were low compared to yields estimated for other basins in the Southeastern United States. Recent increasing trends were detected in total nitrogen concentration and suspended-sediment concentrations for Mountain Creek, and an increasing trend was detected in specific conductance for Little River tributary. Decreasing trends were detected in dissolved nitrite plus nitrate nitrogen, total ammonia plus organic nitrogen, sediment, and specific conductance for Flat River tributary. Water chemical concentrations, loads, yields, and trends for the Treyburn study sites reflect some effects of upstream development. These measures of water quality are generally low, however, compared to regional and national averages.

North Carolina↗
USGS2014

Watershed characteristics and water-quality trends and loads in 12 watersheds in Gwinnett County, Georgia

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Gwinnett County Department of Water Resources, established a Long-Term Trend Monitoring (LTTM) program in 1996. The LTTM program is a comprehensive, long-term, water-quantity and water-quality monitoring program designed to document and analyze the hydrologic and water-quality conditions of selected watersheds of Gwinnett County, Georgia. Water-quality monitoring initially began in six watersheds and was expanded to another six watersheds in 2001. As part of the LTTM program, streamflow, precipitation, water temperature, specific conductance, and turbidity were measured continuously at the 12 watershed monitoring stations for water years 2004–09. In addition, discrete water-quality samples were collected seasonally from May through October (summer) and November through April (winter), including one base-flow and three stormflow event composite samples, during the study period. Samples were analyzed for nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus), total organic carbon, trace elements (total lead and total zinc), total dissolved solids, and total suspended sediment (total suspended solids and suspended-sediment concentrations). The sampling scheme was designed to identify variations in water quality both hydrologically and seasonally. The 12 watersheds were characterized for basin slope, population density, land use for 2009, and the percentage of impervious area from 2000 to 2009. Precipitation in water years 2004–09 was about 18 percent below average, and the county experienced exceptional drought conditions and below average runoff in water years 2007 and 2008. Watershed water yields, the percentage of precipitation that results in runoff, typically are lower in low precipitation years and are higher for watersheds with the highest percentages of impervious areas. A comparison of base-flow and stormflow water-quality samples indicates that turbidity and concentrations of total ammonia plus organic nitrogen, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, total organic carbon, total lead, total zinc, total suspended solids, and suspended-sediment concentrations increased with increasing discharge at all watersheds. Specific conductance, however, decreased during stormflow at all watersheds, and total dissolved solids concentrations decreased during stormflow at a few of the watersheds. Total suspended solids and suspended-sediment concentrations typically were two orders of magnitude higher in stormflow samples, turbidities were about 1.5 orders of magnitude higher, total phosphorus and total zinc were about one order of magnitude higher, and total ammonia plus organic nitrogen, total nitrogen, total organic carbon, and total lead were about twofold higher than in base-flow samples. Seasonal patterns and long-term trends in flow-adjusted water-quality concentrations were identified for five representative constituents—total nitrogen, total phosphorus, total zinc, total dissolved solids, and total suspended solids. Seasonal patterns for all five constituents were fairly similar, with higher concentrations in the summer and lower concentrations in the winter. Significant linear long-term trends in stormflow composite concentrations were identified for 36 of the 60 constituent-watershed combinations (5 constituents multiplied by 12 watersheds) for the period of record through water year 2011. Significant trends typically were decreasing for total nitrogen, total phosphorus, total suspended solids, and total zinc and increasing for total dissolved solids. Total dissolved solids and total suspended solids trends had the largest magnitude changes per year. Stream water loads were estimated for 10 water-quality constituents. These estimates represent the cumulative effects of watershed characteristics, hydrologic processes, biogeochemical processes, climatic variability, and human influences on watershed water quality. Yields, in load per unit area, were used to compare loads from watersheds with different sizes. A load estimation approach developed for the Gwinnett County LTTM program that incorporates storm-event composited samples was used with some minor modifications. This approach employs the commonly used regression-model method. Concentrations were modeled as a function of discharge, time, season, and turbidity to improve model predictions and reduce errors in load estimates. Total suspended solids annual loads have been identified in Gwinnett County’s Watershed Protection Plan for target performance criterion. The amount of annual runoff is the primary factor in determining the amount of annual constituent loads. Below average runoff during water years 2004–09, especially during water years 2006–08, resulted in corresponding below average loads. Variations in constituent yields between watersheds appeared to be related to various watershed characteristics. Suspended sediment (total suspended solids and suspended-sediment concentrations) along with constituents transported predominately in solid phase (total phosphorus, total organic carbon, total lead, and total zinc) and total dissolved solids typically had higher yields from watersheds that had high percentages of impervious areas or high basin slope. High total nitrogen yields were also associated with watersheds with high percentages of impervious areas. Low total nitrogen, total suspended solids, total lead, and total zinc yields appear to be associated with watersheds that have a low percentage of high-density development. Total suspended solids yields were lower in drought years, water years 2007–08, from the combined effects of less runoff and the result of fewer, lower magnitude storms, which likely resulted in less surface erosion and lower stream sediment transport.

Georgia↗
USGS2016

Magnitude, frequency, and trends of floods at gaged and ungaged sites in Washington, based on data through water year 2014

An investigation into the magnitude and frequency of floods in Washington State computed the annual exceedance probability (AEP) statistics for 648 U.S. Geological Survey unregulated streamgages in and near the borders of Washington using the recorded annual peak flows through water year 2014. This is an updated report from a previous report published in 1998 that used annual peak flows through the water year 1996. New in this report, a regional skew coefficient was developed for the Pacific Northwest region that includes areas in Oregon, Washington, Idaho and western Montana within the Columbia River drainage basin south of the United States-Canada border, the coastal areas of Oregon and western Washington, and watersheds draining into Puget Sound, Washington. The skew coefficient is an important term in the Log Pearson Type III equation used to define the distribution of the log-transformed annual peaks. The Expected Moments Algorithm was used to fit historical and censored peak-flow data to the log Pearson Type III distribution. A Multiple Grubb-Beck test was employed to censor low outliers of annual peak flows to improve on the frequency distribution. This investigation also includes a section on observed trends in annual peak flows that showed significant trends ( p -value < 0.05) in 21 of 83 long-term sites, but with small magnitude Kendall tau values suggesting a limited monotonic trend in the time series of annual peaks. Most of the sites with a significant trend in western Washington were positive and all the sites with significant trends (three sites) in eastern Washington were negative. Multivariate regression analysis with measured basin characteristics and the AEP statistics at long-term, unregulated, and un-urbanized (defined as drainage basins with less than 5 percent impervious land cover for this investigation) streamgages within Washington and some in Idaho and Oregon that are near the Washington border was used to develop equations to estimate AEP statistics at ungaged basins. Washington was divided into four regions to improve the accuracy of the regression equations; a set of equations for eight selected AEPs and for each region were constructed. Selected AEP statistics included the annual peak flows that equaled or exceeded 50, 20, 10, 4, 2, 1, 0.5 and 0.2 percent of the time equivalent to peak flows for peaks with a 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year recurrence intervals, respectively. Annual precipitation and drainage area were the significant basin characteristics in the regression equations for all four regression regions in Washington and forest cover was significant for the two regression regions in eastern Washington. Average standard error of prediction for the regional regression equations ranged from 70.19 to 125.72 percent for Regression Regions 1 and 2 on the eastern side of the Cascade Mountains and from 43.22 to 58.04 percent for Regression Regions 3 and 4 on the western side of the Cascade Mountains. The pseudo coefficient of determination (where a value of 100 signifies a perfect regression model) ranged from 68.39 to 90.68 for Regression Regions 1 and 2, and 92.35 to 95.44 for Regions 3 and 4. The calculated AEP statistics for the streamgages and the regional regression equations are expected to be incorporated into StreamStats after the publication of this report. StreamStats is the interactive Web-based map tool created by the U.S. Geological Survey to allow the user to choose a streamgage and obtain published statistics or choose ungaged locations where the program automatically applies the regional regression equations and computes the estimates of the AEP statistics.

Washington↗
USGS2017

Streamflow characteristics and trends along Soldier Creek, Northeast Kansas

Historical data for six selected U.S. Geological Survey streamgages along Soldier Creek in northeast Kansas were used in an assessment of streamflow characteristics and trends. This information is required by the Prairie Band Potawatomi Nation for the effective management of tribal water resources, including drought contingency planning. Streamflow data for the period of record at each streamgage were used to assess annual mean streamflow, annual mean base flow, mean monthly flow, annual peak flow, and annual minimum flow. Annual mean streamflows along Soldier Creek were characterized by substantial year-to-year variability with no pronounced long-term trends. On average, annual mean base flow accounted for about 20 percent of annual mean streamflow. Mean monthly flows followed a general seasonal pattern that included peak values in spring and low values in winter. Annual peak flows, which were characterized by considerable year-to-year variability, were most likely to occur in May and June and least likely to occur during November through February. With the exception of a weak yet statistically significant increasing trend at the Soldier Creek near Topeka, Kansas, streamgage, there were no pronounced long-term trends in annual peak flows. Annual 1-day, 30-day, and 90-day mean minimum flows were characterized by considerable year-to-year variability with no pronounced long-term trend. During an extreme drought, as was the case in the mid-1950s, there may be zero flow in Soldier Creek continuously for a period of one to several months.

Kansas↗
USGS2018

Trends in water quality of selected streams and reservoirs used for water supply in the Triangle area of North Carolina, 1989–2013

As the population of the Triangle area in central North Carolina increases, the demand for good quality drinking water from streams and lakes within the upper Neuse and upper Cape Fear River Basins also increases. The Triangle area includes Raleigh, Cary, Research Triangle Park, Durham, Chapel Hill, and the surrounding communities. The U.S. Geological Survey examined temporal trends in water quality for 13 stream and 8 reservoir sites in the two basins on the basis of data collected during 1989–2013. Trends were analyzed using a fitted time-series model that accommodated for shifting trends and variations in streamflow at multiple time scales. Seventeen water-quality properties and constituents were evaluated, including specific conductance and major ions, nutrients, and organic carbon. Suspended solids and suspended sediment were examined at stream sites; chlorophyll a and Secchi transparency were examined at lake sites. The investigation identified considerable changes in population, land cover, streamflow, and selected water-quality characteristics in the study area over the 25-year period. Specific conductance and concentrations of calcium, magnesium, potassium, sodium, and chloride tended to increase throughout the study area. Area-wide increases were also observed for organic nitrogen. Trends for other water-quality constituents varied on a more site-specific basis because of local watershed influences such as changes to wastewater-treatment processes and substantial shifts from rural to urban land use. Water quality is influenced by multiple, often confounding factors, and thus may change in a non-uniform manner over time. Long-term monitoring is critical for tracking these trends and ensuring resiliency of water supplies for the future. Results from this study may promote the understanding of water-quality response to a growing population and land-cover changes and can assist water-resource managers in the Triangle area in tracking progress toward water-quality goals.

North Carolina↗
USGS2021

Assessment of contaminant trends in plumes and wells and monitoring network optimization at the Badger Army Ammunition Plant, Sauk County, Wisconsin

Soil and groundwater at the Badger Army Ammunition Plant (BAAP), Sauk County, Wisconsin, were affected by several contaminants as a result of production and waste disposal practices common during its operation from 1942 to 1975. Three distinct plumes of contaminated groundwater originate on BAAP property and extend off-site, as identified by previous studies. Routine sampling of groundwater quality from a network of monitoring wells and off-site private wells has been performed since 1990, although the number of wells monitored and the monitoring frequency have varied as the approved monitoring plan was modified. During the period of monitoring from 1990 to 2018, numerous site investigations and remedial actions were conducted to address the sources of contamination, contaminated soils, and groundwater. Concentrations of contaminants reportedly decreased between 2000 and 2012 within all three plumes. Five or six contaminants of concern (COCs) were identified for each of the three plumes. An independent assessment of the contaminant plumes and of the monitoring network was conducted using groundwater-quality data collected from more than 600 wells between 2000 and 2018. In a study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Army Environmental Command, a consistent data aggregation and interpolation scheme was applied to derive the likely maximum groundwater plume extents in four 3-year time periods between 2000 and 2018. The plume extent was defined by the Enforcement Standard for each COC and represents the maximum concentration observed in each 3-year time period. The plume boundary analysis shows that the spatial extent of groundwater contamination decreased for most COCs during the study period. Some plume boundaries are not well delineated by the existing monitoring network, particularly the downgradient edge of the Propellant Burning Ground plume. Maps identify the plume boundary in each time period, the sampling well network used to delineate the plume, and wells that were sampled in the 2010–12 period but not sampled in the 2015–18 period. A series of statistical analyses using the Monitoring and Remediation Optimization System, version 3.0, program were applied to the available COC concentration data for two distinct periods, 2000 to 2012 and 2013 to 2018, with the break between periods coinciding with changes to the monitoring network in 2013. Trends in the concentration of COCs in individual wells varied, although generally more wells had decreasing than had increasing concentrations for most COCs in both time periods. The exceptions were ethyl ether in the 2004–12 period and 2,6-dinitrotoluene in the 2013–18 period, for which more wells had an increasing trend. Spatial moment analysis of concentration data from the well network was used to assess the stability of each plume for the COCs. During the 2000–12 period, most of the contaminant plumes for which data were sufficient to complete the analysis were either decreasing or stable in mass and size. The exceptions were carbon tetrachloride (associated solely with the Propellant Burning Ground plume) and 2,4-dinitrotoluene and 2,6-dinitrotoluene (in the Deterrent Burning Ground plume), which showed an increasing trend in mass. No COCs showed an increasing trend in plume mass in the 2013–18 period. Some wells with increasing trends in concentration or with concentrations greater than the enforcement standard are near the tail of a plume, where increased monitoring may be of value to better define future plume boundaries. A spatial optimization analysis covering the 2013–18 period identified six wells that provided information redundant to that from other wells. A temporal optimization analysis identified optimal sampling frequencies for 125 wells. Remedial actions directed at the Propellant Burning Ground plume coincided with a general decrease in plume mass and size, although in specific areas and depths, the plume size for specific contaminants may still be increasing.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2020

Trends in recent historical and projected climate data for the Colorado River Basin and potential effects on groundwater availability

Understanding recent historical and projected trends in precipitation and temperature in the Colorado River Basin, and estimating what the projected changes in these climate parameters may mean for groundwater resources in the region, is important for water managers and policymakers to sustainably manage water resources in the basin. Historical (1896–2019) precipitation and temperature data for the upper and lower Colorado River Basins were analyzed to better understand recent trends in climate data that may affect groundwater resources in the area. Historical data indicate multidecadal-scale cyclical patterns in precipitation in both the upper and lower basins. Although upper basin precipitation had no statistical trend over the recent historical period, the lower basin had a weak negative trend over this period. Multidecadal-scale cyclical patterns in temperature also are observed in historical climate data in both the upper and lower basins, at least until the early 1970s. Beginning at that time, both the upper and lower basins experienced strong, monotonic positive trends in temperature. Basic principles of hydrology indicate that periods of decreasing precipitation as well as increasing temperature would have a negative effect, that is, reduction in groundwater infiltration and hence, reduced recharge of aquifer systems. Projected climate data from 97 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble members across the full range of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCPs) from water years 1951 through 2099 were evaluated to understand what current global climate models are projecting about future conditions in the Colorado River Basin, and what this might mean for groundwater systems in the region. Precipitation in the upper basin is projected to increase throughout the rest of the century, rising to 6 percent above the 1951–2015 historical period by mid-century and to 9 percent above the historical period by the end of the century. Temperature in the upper basin also is projected to be above the recent historical median throughout the rest of the century, with steady warming in decadal average temperatures expected until the last quarter of this century. In contrast to projected precipitation in the upper basin, precipitation in the lower basin is projected to be the same as, or slightly less than, the historical period throughout most of the rest of this century. Like projected temperature in the upper basin, temperature in the lower basin also is projected to be above the recent historical median throughout the rest of the century. Comparing median projections for all future decades with median results from all historical decades, future precipitation is expected to be greater than that of the past in the upper basin, though no significant difference is projected for precipitation in the lower basin. Significant increases (p-value<0.05) are expected in temperature in both the upper and lower basins. To estimate the effects of projected precipitation and temperature on groundwater systems in the region, results from the 97 member CMIP5 climate projection ensemble were used as input in a Soil-Water Balance (SWB) groundwater infiltration model for the Colorado River Basin. SWB simulation results indicate that the upper Colorado River Basin is expected to experience decades of above-historical-average groundwater infiltration through the end of the century. For the lower Colorado River Basin, simulated groundwater infiltration is projected to be consistently less than the recent (1951–2015) historical period for most of the remaining century. A comparison of the distribution of all median simulated groundwater infiltration results between recent historical and future periods indicates projected groundwater infiltration in the upper basin is significantly (p-value<0.05) greater over the combined 2020–2099 future period than the recent (1951–2015) historical period. Moreover, in 41 of 71 (58 percent) possible future decades in this century, groundwater infiltration is projected to be greater than the 75th percentile of historical simulated groundwater infiltration. Projected groundwater infiltration in the lower Colorado River Basin across all future decades is significantly less than in the historical period. Of the 71 future decades in the century, projected groundwater infiltration in the lower basin is expected to be less than the 25th percentile of historical infiltration in 55 (77 percent) of the 10-year periods. Important differences in projected precipitation between the upper (increasing precipitation) and lower (decreasing precipitation) basins largely drive the different responses of simulated groundwater infiltration in the upper (increasing infiltration) and lower (decreasing infiltration) basins. It will be useful to revisit projections in groundwater infiltration in the Colorado River Basin when more up-to-date projections of precipitation become available from the next Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases or by using climate input developments through Regional Climate Modeling efforts and stochastic weather generators.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico,↗
USGS2021

Groundwater conditions and trends, 2009–19, Saipan, Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands

Groundwater is the primary source of municipal water for Saipan. Nearly all groundwater for the municipal water supply is withdrawn from a freshwater-lens system with a limited amount of freshwater that is susceptible to saltwater intrusion. The status of Saipan’s groundwater resources has not been thoroughly assessed since 2003. The U.S. Geological Survey—in cooperation with the Office of Grants Management, Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, and in collaboration with the Commonwealth Utilities Corporation—assessed the status and characteristics of Saipan’s groundwater resources by (1) evaluating groundwater withdrawals from municipal production wells during 2014–19, (2) evaluating chloride concentrations of municipal groundwater withdrawals during 2009–19, and (3) collecting salinity profiles at selected groundwater-monitoring wells during 2018–19. At the time of preparation of this report (2019), the periods of groundwater-withdrawal and chloride-concentration data represent the only periods of data available since 2003. During 2014–19, groundwater for the municipal water supply was withdrawn from about 143 production wells. Most of the wells are drilled into limestone formations in the southern plateau and the Kagman Peninsula and generally have withdrawal rates of about 40–60 gallons per minute. Records of monthly groundwater withdrawals from municipal production wells were available for May 2014–March 2019; during that period, monthly withdrawals ranged from 5.7 to 12.8 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) and averaged 9.3 Mgal/d, although records were unavailable for 9 months (May 2015–January 2016). Private wells, mainly located on the western coastal plain, currently are permitted to withdraw a total of about 7 Mgal/d of groundwater. Actual groundwater withdrawals from private wells, however, are uncertain because withdrawal records for private wells are not available. The Commonwealth Utilities Corporation measured the chloride concentration of groundwater pumped from each of its production wells about twice a year from 2009–19; during this period, 146 production wells were active and sampled. Only 32 of the 146 (22 percent) municipal production wells had median chloride concentrations less than or equal to 250 milligrams per liter (mg/L), the secondary drinking water standard set by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Eighty-one wells (55 percent) pumped water with median chloride concentrations above 500 mg/L. The Mann-Kendall test was used to determine if chloride concentrations of groundwater withdrawals at 146 municipal production wells had statistically significant trends during December 2009–February 2019. Trends were considered statistically significant for probability values (p-values) less than or equal to 0.05. Test results indicate an upward trend at 9 wells, a downward trend at 52 wells, and no trend at 85 wells. Salinity profiles were measured in 12 selected monitor wells during July–August 2018 and were measured in six of the twelve selected monitor wells during March 2019. The salinity profiles were used to estimate the thickness of the freshwater lens at 10 monitor wells; freshwater-lens thickness was greatest (46 ft) in a monitor well in the Dan Dan well field near the northern part of the southern plateau. Freshwater-lens-thickness estimates elsewhere were (1) between 0 and 28 ft for the remaining monitor wells on the southern plateau, (2) between 19 and 21 ft for monitor wells on the Kagman Peninsula, (3) 2 ft for a monitor well in the Sablan Quarry well field on west-central Saipan, and (4) 8 ft for a monitor well in the Marpi Quarry well field on northern Saipan.

Commonwealth of the Norhtern Marianas Islands, Sai↗
USGS2002

Trends in selected streamflow and stream-channel characteristics for the Chagrin River at Willoughby, Ohio

Monotonic upward trends in annual mean streamflows and annual 7-day low flows were identified statistically for the streamflow-gaging station on the Chagrin River at Willoughby, Ohio. No monotonic trends were identified for the annual peak streamflow series or partial-duration series of peak streamflows augmented with annual peak streamflows that did not exceed a base discharge of 4,000 cubic feet per second. A plot of cumulative departure of annual precipitation from the long-term mean annual precipitation for the weather-observation station at Hiram, Ohio, indicates a relatively dry period extending from about 1910 to about 1968, followed by a relatively wet period extending from about 1968 to the late 1990s. A plot of cumulative departure of annual mean streamflow from the mean annual streamflow for the Chagrin River at Willoughby, Ohio, closely mimics the shape of the precipitation departure plot, indicating that the annual mean streamflows increased in concert with annual precipitation. These synchronous trends likely explain why upward trends in annual mean streamflows and annual 7-day low flows were observed. A lack of trend in peak streamflows indicates that the intensity and severity of flood-producing storms did not increase appreciably along with the increases in annual precipitation. An analysis of point-of-zero-flow data indicates that the low-water control of the Chagrin River streamflow-gaging station tended to aggrade over the period 1930–93; however, the magnitude of aggradation is sufficiently small that its effect on stages of moderate to large floods would be negligible. Stage values associated with reference streamflows of 500 and 5,000 cubic feet per second tended to remain fairly stable during the period from about 1950 to 1970 and then decreased slightly during the period from about 1970 to 1980, suggesting that the flood-carrying capacity of the stream increased somewhat during the latter period. Since a large flood on May 26, 1989, significant changes have occurred in the relation between stage and streamflow. The most recent relation indicates that stage values associated with streamflows of 500 and 5,000 cubic feet per second are about 0.5 foot and 0.1 foot higher, respectively, than the pre-1989 levels.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗
USGS2003

Occurrence of and trends in selected sediment-associated contaminants in Caddo Lake, East Texas, 1940-2002

Bottom-sediment cores were collected from four sites in Caddo Lake in East Texas during May 2002 for analyses of radionuclides (for age dating), organochlorine pesticides, polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), and major and trace elements, and to describe the occurrence and trends of these sediment-associated contaminants. The Goose Prairie Creek and Harrison Bayou sites receive drainage from an area that includes parts of the now-closed Longhorn Army Ammunitions Plant. The mid-lake site is relatively close to dense oil and gas operations in the lake. The Carter Lake site receives minimal discharge from developed areas. Sediment age (deposition) dates represented in the cores ranged from 1940 to 2002. The only organochlorine compounds detected in all core samples were the DDT degradation products DDE or DDD, and PCB Aroclors 1242, 1254, and 1260 were detected only at the Goose Prairie Creek site. One or more of the DDE concentrations at all sites exceeded a consensus-based threshold effect concentration (on benthic biota), but none exceeded a consensus-based probable effect concentration. The Goose Prairie Creek site had significant downward trends in concentrations of organochlorine compounds, except for no trend in DDE concentrations. The Ammunitions Plant is a possible historical source of the few organochlorine compounds detected at the Goose Prairie Creek and Harrison Bayou sites. PAH concentrations at all sites were below respective threshold effect concentrations. Highest PAH concentrations at all four sites were of C2- alkylated naphthalenes. Nearly all statistically significant PAH trends in the cores were downward. On the basis of PAH source-indicator ratios, the majority of PAH compounds appear to have originated from uncombusted sources such as leaks or spills from oil and gas operations or vehicles (automobiles, boats, aircraft) in the Caddo Lake area. Concentrations of several of the eight trace elements with threshold effect concentrations and probable effect concentrations (among 26 analyzed) were above the respective threshold effect concentrations, but all, except one lead concentration at the Goose Prairie Creek site (deposited about 1961), were below respective probable effect concentrations. Among trace element concentrations at the four sites, lead and mercury were consistently relatively high at the Goose Prairie Creek site. Again the Ammunitions Plant, because of its proximity and history of industrial activities, is the suspected primary source. Statistically significant trends in trace element concentrations were mixed, but more were downward than upward. Computations to indicate the dominant source (atmospheric fallout or drainage area) of mercury to the Caddo Lake sediment core sites (except Carter Lake) indicate that about one-third of the mercury at the Goose Prairie Creek site might result from drainage area sources. No drainage area sources were indicated for the Harrison Bayou and mid-lake sites. Arsenic, cadmium, and zinc concentrations were highest at the Carter Lake site. No relation between the relatively higher trace element concentrations and any potential source of contamination in the Carter Lake drainage area (for example, oil and gas operations, a road, a boat ramp) is indicated.

Texas↗
USGS1998

Watershed trend analysis and water-quality assessment using bottom-sediment cores from Cheney Reservoir, south-central Kansas

An examination of Cheney Reservoir bottom sediment was conducted in August 1997 to describe long-term trends and document the occurrence of selected constituents at concentrations that may be detrimental to aquatic organisms. Average concentrations of total phosphorus in bottom-sediment cores ranged from 94 to 674 milligrams per kilogram and were statistically related to silt- and (or) clay-size particles. Results from selected sampling sites in Cheney Reservoir indicate an increasing trend in total phosphorus concentrations. This trend is probably of nonpoint-source origin and may be related to an increase in fertilizer sales in the area, which more than doubled between 1965 and 1996, and to livestock production. Few organochlorine compounds were detected in bottom-sediment samples from Cheney Reservoir. DDT, its degradation products DDD and DDE, and dieldrin had detectable concentrations in the seven samples that were analyzed. DDT and DDD were each detected in one sample at concentrations of 1.0 and 0.65 microgram per kilogram, respectively. By far, the most frequently detected organochlorine insecticide was DDE, which was detected in all seven samples, ranging in concentration from 0.31 to 1.3 micrograms per kilogram. A decreasing trend in DDE concentrations was evident in sediment-core data from one sampling site. Dieldrin was detected in one sample from each of two sampling sites at concentrations of 0.21 and 0.22 micrograms per kilogram. Polychlorinated biphenyls were not detected in any bottom-sediment sample analyzed. Selected organophosphate, chlorophenoxy-acid, triazine, and acetanilide pesticides were analyzed in 18 bottom-sediment samples. Of the 23 pesticides analyzed, only the acetanilide herbicide metolachlor was detected (in 22 percent of the samples). Seven bottom-sediment samples were analyzed for major metals and trace elements. The median and maximum concentrations of arsenic and chromium, the maximum concentration of copper, and all concentrations of nickel in the seven samples were in the range where adverse effects to aquatic organisms occasionally occur. No time trends in trace elements were discernable in the August 1997 data.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗